Ukraine Russia Research Articles

Competing narratives of the Russia–Ukraine war: Why the West hasn't convinced the rest

AbstractThis article examines the narratives surrounding Moscow's full‐scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and beyond. Since the start of the war, Western characterizations of Russia's foreign policy as revanchist and imperialist have been overshadowed by the more successful framing by Russia that its actions were driven by the need to push back on American unipolarity and Western imperialist tendencies. This article examines how the Kremlin's narrative on the war has been embraced by leaders in core BRICS countries, shaping their position vis‐à‐vis Russia and the war. Drawing on theories of strategic narratives, this article highlights how leaders in China, India, Brazil, and South Africa understand the war and create conditions in which Russia can prosecute its war against a neighbor with their support or acquiescence. The paper concludes with policy recommendations and a brief discussion of why theories of strategic narratives have been underappreciated relative to more standard power‐based and materialist explanations of the war's outbreak, scope, and trajectory by scholars of international relations.

Autonomous Responses to the Russia–Ukraine Conflict? Evidence from the Feminist Foreign Policy in Latin America

AbstractGiven the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the Feminist Foreign Policy (FFP) institutionalisation by Mexico (2020) and Chile (2023), this study analyses their differentiated responses to empirically assess FFP's promised potential to achieve autonomy in foreign policymaking. Through a thematic analysis, we examined the official stances towards the war, diplomatic interactions, and specific cooperation policies proposed or supported by the two countries. The results are twofold: (1) theoretically, FFP challenges conventional theories on international relations and foreign policymaking by fostering a nuanced understanding of the war thus creating conditions for developing autonomous discourses and policies, and (2) empirically, FFP has practical limitations evidenced in Mexico and Chile's heterogeneous – and sometimes unexpected – responses.

Research on Efficiency and Multifractality of Gold Market under Major Events

(1) Background: As a safe-haven asset, gold attracts a large number of investors during major events. Uncertainties caused by global economic and market conditions lead to increased purchases of gold by investors, which in turn affects the efficiency of the gold market. (2) Methods: This article focuses on Shanghai gold and explores the potential impacts of different major events on the effectiveness and risk of China’s gold market using the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) method. (3) Results: the Chinese gold spot market is anti-persistence and exhibits significant multifractal characteristics, suggesting that the gold spot market possesses predictability and has significant volatility and high risk. Furthermore, the study conducts stage analysis based on different major events, and the results are as follows. The empirical results show that the gold market exhibits anti-persistence and multifractality features for three major events, i.e., the US–China trade war, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia–Ukraine War. (4) Conclusions: for the COVID-19 pandemic, the intensity of anti-persistence is the highest. In addition, it is also found that the stronger the anti-persistence in the gold markets under a given event, the greater the corresponding risk. Finally, the article provides relevant decision-making suggestions for investors and risk managers.

Heterogeneous stock market impact of Russia–Ukraine War for oil and gas companies

Purpose This paper aims to examine the short-term market impact of the beginning of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine (24 February 2022), the world’s largest oil and gas companies. Design/methodology/approach The authors examine the world’s 100 largest listed oil and gas companies at and around the beginning of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine using an event study methodology. Findings The authors observe a positive and statistically significant stock price reaction at and around the military conflict. These results are consistent with the asset pricing perspective. Conversely, the stock market returns of Russian oil and gas companies, as well as those companies that were “forced” to divest in Russia due to corporate activism, exhibit a negative and statistically significant impact from the conflict. These reactions are reinforced or mitigated by company-specific characteristics such as size, profitability and institutional ownership. Finally, the findings indicate that companies engaged in oil and gas exploration and production report abnormally higher returns compared to firms in the other two subsectors of the industry. Originality/value The effect of the war on stock markets has been relatively little examined in the financial theory. This study intends to fill this gap in the literature.

Co‐Jump Dependency and Transmission Across US Commodity Futures: A Network Analysis

ABSTRACTThis paper examines the co‐jump transmission in 20 commodity futures returns in the United States using co‐jump network models. Specifically, it reveals co‐jumping behavior in both static and time‐varying settings, considering the overall commodity markets and various commodity groups separately, which helps us understand the dynamic changes in co‐jump dependencies at the overall and sector levels. The main results reveal that co‐jump heterogeneity exists among commodities but is generally more apparent within each commodity group, and co‐jumps vary over time. Gold exerts the strongest influence, with many commodity futures being influenced by the jumps behavior in gold returns. During the COVID‐19 outbreak and the Russia–Ukraine war, the energy group ranks highest in terms of co‐jump network centrality. Our empirical analysis highlights the portfolio performance and risk reduction, and an additional examination shows that centrality information from the co‐jump network contains a highly and statistically forecasting power for US stock market volatility.

Correction to: Multi-alignment and India’s response to the Russia–Ukraine war

Correction to: Multi-alignment and India’s response to the Russia–Ukraine war

Impact of occupation and war losses on mental health and the subjective well-being of civilians: on the example of residents of Kharkiv and Kharkiv region under the conditions of full-scale invasion of Russia in Ukraine

The article is devoted to the study of the impact of traumatic experience, in particular, related to being in the occupation, and losses in the war, on the mental health of the civilians who live near the hostilities or their epicenter (using the example of residents of the city of Kharkiv and the Kharkiv region). Conceptualized concepts of traumatic situation, traumatic experience, characterization of war losses (human, property, financial, material losses; loss of work; loss of physical and / or psychological health and loss of peace, etc.). The results of an empirical study of the mental state of civilians of Kharkiv and the Kharkiv region are presented (n = 730). In particular, according to the results of the correlation analysis, it was proven that respondents with occupation experience have more problems with sleep, in the cognitive and emotional spheres. They are more likely to believe that they have experienced a serious trauma, more often note the desire to drink alcohol before feeling intoxicated. Among them, there are more often those who are haunted by memories of recent negative events, in which paranoid moods are more common. It is noted that despite the significant losses suffered by representatives of the civilian population of Kharkiv region during the period of the full-scale invasion of Russia, they do not lose their positive attitude and self-belief, have certain achievements and value them highly, are goal-oriented, and are satisfied with family and personal relationships. However, losses still affect mental health and subjective well-being, in particular, significant losses (of loved ones, friends, one’s own home, etc.) can cause more pronounced physical and mental discomfort.

The Russia–Ukraine war, the Orthodox Church, and religious freedom

The Russia–Ukraine war, the Orthodox Church, and religious freedom

Spillover effect of the geopolitical uncertainty on the cryptocurrency market

PurposeThis study aims to examine the influence of geopolitical uncertainty on cryptocurrency markets (CM).Design/methodology/approachUtilizing two distinct sets of daily returns data spanning from January 1, 2019, to May 4, 2023, the analysis employs the geopolitical risk (GPR) index formulated by Caldara and Iacoviello (2022), which encapsulates two pivotal events: the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The cryptocurrency market (CM) encompasses Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC) and Dogecoin (DOGE). Employing the DCC-GARCH model and supplementing it with wavelet coherence analysis to discern perceptual distinctions between short- and long-term market reactions.FindingsThe main findings indicate that the GPR index clearly impacts the return of CM in the short-, mid- and long-term periods. BTC exhibited the highest volatility in response to changes in the GPR index. The cryptocurrency market offers a better diversification opportunity, and the impact of geopolitical events varies across time, with their direction and magnitude closely related to the specificity of the CM.Practical implicationsThis research is helpful for financial market investors, portfolio and risk managers, make informed decisions about including cryptocurrencies in their investment portfolios to mitigate the risks in uncertainty period.Originality/valueCryptocurrency market volatility is treated weakly during the risk period. With advanced statistical method, this study links two important events: the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict and selects the top four cryptocurrencies constituting 80% of the market. This study examines the impact of geopolitical risk on the cryptocurrency market and shows that this market is considered a safe haven.

Did grain futures prices overreact to the Russia–Ukraine war due to herding?

We study the impact of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine on grain futures prices. The war allows us to evaluate whether commodity futures markets at the time were driven by investor herding. Using event study methods, we find that wheat futures prices rose by 35 percent above the counterfactual until the EU Solidarity Lanes were announced, more than corn futures prices, which were up 16 percent. This relative price response cannot be explained by herding behavior. Furthermore, prices for control commodities did not respond to the war at all, contradicting the herding theory. There is no statistical evidence of abnormal speculative pressure in the market around the time of the invasion, and we conclude the markets put a fair price on the wartime risk of Black Sea grain shipment disruptions.

Stock market effects of military conflicts on defence industry

PurposeThis paper aims to examine the short-term market reaction for the world’s 100 largest listed defence firms at and around the three recent largest threats to the global economy – Ukraine–Russia war, Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis and the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel.Design/methodology/approachThe author examine the impact of the three recent largest threats to the global economy in the largest listed defence firms using an event study methodology.FindingsThe results show a positive and statistically significant short-term reaction around the three geopolitical threats. The results also reveal the existence of higher abnormal returns for defence firms with greater weight of defence sales, in line with the captured regulator theory and for firms with higher research and development and capital expenditure intensity.Originality/valueThe effect of the war on stock markets has been relatively little examined in the financial theory. This study intends to fill this gap in the literature through the analysis of the three recent largest threats to the global economy.

Vulnerabilities of the neoliberal global food system: The Russia–Ukraine War and COVID‐19

AbstractThe coronavirus 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war have demonstrated that the neoliberal system is unstable during global crises. In times of crisis, exporter countries adopt protectionist policies in the form of export restrictions to safeguard their local food supply and curb inflation. Consequently, low‐income countries might find themselves unable to access essential food products. In this regard, the aftermath of the COVID‐19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war has gradually increased export restrictions, causing severe food supply disruptions. In particular, import‐dependent countries cannot access essential food products and face famine. To this point, this study explores the vulnerabilities of neoliberalism when exporter countries turn to protectionism. Moreover, it asks whether food sovereignty and self‐sufficiency could act as a safeguard for import‐dependent states against such vulnerabilities. In doing so, the study aims to contribute to the literature by linking protectionism with export restrictions, diverging from the more common association of protectionism with solely import restrictions.

Stakeholder satisfaction with corporate conflict engagement actions: Exploring the effects of goodwill, trust, and value alignment

In the last decade, businesses have played an increasingly significant role in promoting stability, democracy, and human rights, particularly concerning the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, which emphasize peace, justice, and strong institutions. Consequently, there has been a greater focus on corporate social responsibility and corporate citizenship. Research has explored business motivations and actions in conflict mitigation. Nevertheless, less attention has been given to the impact of conflict engagement actions on stakeholders’ perceptions and behavioral intentions. This study aims to fill this gap by testing the effects of types of corporate conflict engagement actions (CCEAs) on stakeholders’ satisfaction with business choices and overall corporate goodwill. This study employs an experimental design in which respondents are exposed to CCEAs in scenarios related to the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The findings of this study are particularly relevant to business firms and their quest for whether to engage in regions undergoing conflict. The results illuminate the key factors of CCEAs that shape stakeholder satisfaction and corporate goodwill perceptions in today’s complex geopolitical landscape.

Analyzing Overnight Momentum Transmission: The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Global Financial Markets

Fluctuations in oil prices substantially impact both the real economy and international financial markets. Despite extensive studies on oil market dynamics and overnight momentum, a comprehensive understanding of the link between oil price changes and energy market momentum, as well as their broader influence on global financial markets, remains elusive. This study delves into the intricate mechanics of overnight momentum transmission within financial markets, focusing on its origin in oil price fluctuations and its overarching impact on market dynamics. Employing the quantile VAR method, we analyze daily market data from 3 January 2014 to 17 January 2024. This study emphasizes the significance of overnight momentum on the transmission of volatility, particularly in the tails of the distribution, and highlights the necessity for efficient strategies to govern financial stability. The shale oil revolution, COVID-19, the Russia–Ukraine war, and the Israel–Hamas conflict have significantly impacted the interconnectivity of financial markets on a global scale. It is crucial for policymakers to give priority to the monitoring of the energy market to reduce risks and improve the resilience of the system.

The Russia–Ukraine war, the evolving global order, the Global South and emergence of non‐alignment 2.0

AbstractThe conclusion to the special section argues that the Russia‐Ukraine war has led to the emergence of non‐alignment 2.0 in the Global South because the Cold War era non‐alignment is anachronistic in the current/emerging world order. Non‐alignment 2.0 is characterised by countries exercising strategic autonomy to maximise their geo‐economic, geopolitical and geostrategic interests. They are neither aligned with the West nor with non‐western powers forming a strategic alliance. Consequently, they have been unwilling to choose a side in the Russia‐Ukraine war. In non‐alignment 2.0, states in the Global South will be critical of both the West and non‐western powers including China and Russia if they are unable to provide effective solutions to their problems and will create/provide their own norms and establish their own institutions to solve the problems facing these countries. Non‐alignment 2.0 lacks coherence because it is unable to provide an effective political and economic path.

Impact of the Russia–Ukraine War: evidence from G20 countries

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the impact of geopolitical events of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on the stock market volatility of G20 countries. Furthermore, the paper also investigates the possible reasons for any similarities or differences in the results of the three sectors. Design/methodology/approach This paper measures the impact of the stock market sectoral index price (SIP) by using the daily closing price as a dependent variable. In addition, this study uses three independent variables: geopolitical risk (GPR), commodity price (CP) and foreign exchange rate (FER). Seventeen countries from the G20 are analyzed using a daily timeframe from September 2021 to August 2022 (before and during the Russian invasion). Findings The results revealed that FER, CP and GPR all affect SIP, but the level of significance and positive/negative signs vary in all three sectors. The positive FER affects SIP in all sectors, while the negative CP and GPR significantly impact SIP in the energy and transportation sectors. Research limitations/implications This study’s research model is more suited for transportation and energy than consumer goods. Future researchers can enhance the research model for the consumer goods sector by incorporating additional variables to understand their relationship with SIP better. Originality/value This study explores the impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on the stock market in G20 countries, focusing on the top three most affected sectors.

The power of jus cogens in the shadow of procedural obstacles. Legal dilemmas in international cases concerning severe human rights violations, special regards to the Ukraine–Russia War

The power of jus cogens in the shadow of procedural obstacles. Legal dilemmas in international cases concerning severe human rights violations, special regards to the Ukraine–Russia War

Examining the Roles, Sentiments, and Discourse of European Interest Groups in the Ukrainian War through X (Twitter)

This research focuses on examining the responses of interest groups listed in the European Transparency Register to the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war. Its aim is to investigate the nuanced reactions of 2579 commercial and business associations and 2957 companies and groups to the recent conflict, as expressed through their X (Twitter) activities. Utilizing advanced text mining and NLP and LDA techniques, this study conducts a comprehensive analysis encompassing language dynamics, thematic shifts, sentiment variations, and activity levels exhibited by these entities both before and after the outbreak of the war. The results obtained reflect a gradual decrease in negative emotions regarding the conflict over time. Likewise, multiple forms of outside lobbying are identified in the communication strategies of interest groups. All in all, this empirical inquiry into how interest groups adapt their messaging in response to complex geopolitical events holds the potential to provide invaluable insights into the multifaceted role of lobbying in shapi ng public policies.

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Commercial Property Performance: An In-Depth Analysis of Rents and Capital Values

Economic uncertainty has steadily increased in response to a series of unforeseen shocks, notably the Global Financial Crisis, Brexit, COVID-19, and the Russia–Ukraine war. This study examined the impact of economic uncertainty on rents and capital values in Australia’s office, retail, and industrial property sectors. The reactions of these performance indicators to national uncertainty shocks were assessed through reduced-form vector autoregressive (VAR) models, using quarterly data from 2001Q1 to 2022Q3. Overall, there is an inverse relationship between uncertainty and commercial property performance, with notable variations in magnitude and persistence across the different subsectors. Rents are more sensitive to external shocks across all three subsectors, highlighting their role as signals of short-term performance. Following one standard deviation shock in uncertainty, rents steadily declined for approximately three years in the office and retail subsectors. Industrial rents, however, exhibited muted reactions and recovered quicker, typically within five quarters. This resilience to external shocks displayed by the industrial subsector positions it as a compelling option for defensive investment strategies and portfolio diversification. Capital values are less reactive than rents, showing minimal responses to uncertainty shocks and little long-term persistence.

Dynamic Returns Connectedness: Portfolio Hedging Implications During the COVID‐19 Pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine War

ABSTRACTWe apply a Time‐Varying Parameter Vector Auto Regressive (TVP‐VAR) connectedness approach on global assets to investigate time‐varying dynamic connectedness, portfolio performance, and hedge effectiveness during COVID‐19 and the Russia–Ukraine war. With increased connectedness and the changing role of energy and soft commodities during these two events, we find the minimum correlation (connectedness) portfolio performing better during COVID‐19 and the Russia–Ukraine war and that cumulative returns of portfolios are higher during COVID‐19. Additionally, we find varying (stable) hedge effectiveness of equity market indices and soft commodities (cryptocurrencies). This paper provides specific insights to investors about using optimal portfolios and hedging during pandemics and military conflicts.