Russian Influenza Research Articles

Comparative Characteristics of Morbidity with Temporary Disability due to Influenza and AURI in the Russian Federation and Moscow in Recent Years

Relevance. Acute upper respiratory infections (AURIs) annually cause enormous economic damage due to the incidence of the working population. Aim. Identify the features of morbidity with temporary disability (TD) due to AURIs and influenza in Russia and in Moscow. Materials and methods. A retrospective epidemiological analysis of morbidity with TD due to AURIs and influenza was carried out for the period 2009-2016. Data processing was performed in Microsoft Excel 2013. Results. For the period 2009-2016 in Russia, the proportion of AURIs is up to 73.6% of cases and 66.6% of days of TD from all diseases of the respiratory system, as the cause of TD. In Moscow, the proportion of AURIs for all diseases of the respiratory system accounts is up to 77.9% of cases and 69.3% of TD days. The average duration of a case of TD due to AURIs is 7.9 days (Russia) and 7.3 days (Moscow), and the average duration of a case of TD due to influenza increased in Russia from 8.5 days (2009) to 9.3 days (2016), and in Moscow from 8.4 days (2009) to 9.1 day (2016). Conclusions. Annually, on average, 498,440 cases and 4,382,631 days of TD due to diseases of the respiratory system are not counted in Russia.

Epidemiological characteristics of acute respiratory viral infection and influenza in Russian Federation and Moscow

Аim: Give an epidemiological description of the incidence of acute respiratory viral infection and influenza in the Russian Federation and Moscow.Materials and methods: The form of the federal state statistical observation № 2 “Information on infectious and parasitic diseases” for 2007–2017. When analyzing the etiological structure of the agents of ARVI and influenza in Moscow, protocols were used for weekly laboratory tests of agents of ARVI and influenza conducted by the Center for Hygiene and Epidemiology in Moscow.Results: The epidemic process of ARVI in Russia is characterized by a stabilization of morbidity with an average annual growth rate of 0,4%, and Moscow has a moderate tendency to reduce morbidity with an average annual rate of decline of 2,3%. The highest incidence of ARVI is observed among children under 1 year, 1–2 years and 3–6 years. The greatest proportion in the structure of the incidence of ARVI is children under 17 years. Both for Russia and for Moscow, there is a pronounced tendency to reduce the incidence of influenza. In contrast to ARVI, the largest proportion of people with influenza in Russia and in Moscow are adults, but the highest incidence rates are registered among the children. The epidemic rise of the incidence of ARVI and influenza in Moscow starts 10–12 weeks earlier than in the Russia as a whole.Conclusion: For the epidemic of ARVI in Moscow and in Russia it is typical to involve children under 1 year, 1–2 years and 3–6 years. In Moscow in 2016 and 2017 there is a significant increase in the incidence of influenza among children under 1 year and 1–2 years. In contrast to the Russian Federation for Moscow among the causative agents of non-influenza etiology, dominated parainfluenza viruses (1–3 types) and adenoviruses.

La Grippe or Russian influenza: Mortality statistics during the 1890 Epidemic in Indiana.

BackgroundThe Russian influenza, which began in late 1889, has long been recognized as a major global epidemic yet available statistical evidence for morbidity and mortality has not been fully examined using historical and epidemiological tools. This study of cases and deaths in Indiana during the extended time period associated with the Russian influenza is the first scholarly effort to determine the number of victims from this influenza outbreak across a broad regional case study in the US.MethodsThe sources for this study include historical records from the US Census, Annual Reports from the Indiana State Board of Health, and death notices published in newspapers. The available evidence is analyzed using historical and epidemiological methods to determine the consistency of reporting categories, the accuracy of death records, and the applicability of contemporary categories for measuring mortality.ResultsIn the 3 years during and following the outbreak of “Russian influenza” in January 1890 in the state of Indiana, approximately 3200 died specifically of this disease while a total of 11 700 died of influenza and other respiratory diseases. These results confirm that extremely widespread influenza contributed to higher than normal death rates by causing additional deaths in related categories, especially pneumonia and other respiratory diseases.ConclusionsMore reliable and thorough analysis of morbidity and mortality during the Russian influenza based on systematic and critical review of local, regional, and national statistics can inform contemporary understanding of the long‐term history of influenza epidemics.

Age-dependence of the 1918 pandemic

Abstract A well-known feature of the great H1N1 influenza pandemic of a century ago is that the highest mortality rate was amongst young adults. The general explanation has been that they died from an over-reaction of their active immune systems. This explanation has never been very satisfactory because teenagers also have very active immune systems. Recent virological research provides a new perspective, which is important for life and health insurers. There is now strong recent scientific evidence for the principle of antigenic imprinting, where the highest antibody response is against influenza virus strains from childhood. The peak ages of 1918 pandemic mortality correspond to a cohort exposed to the H3N8 1889–1890 Russian influenza pandemic. The vulnerability of an individual depends crucially on his or her exposure to influenza during their lifetime, especially childhood. Date of birth is thus a key indicator of pandemic vulnerability. An analysis of the implications is presented, with focus on those now in their fifties, who were exposed to the H3N2 1968 Hong Kong influenza.

993. Combining Key Residues of the Russian and US Live-Attenuated Influenza Viruses for a More Attenuated Virus

BackgroundThe Live Attenuated Influenza Virus (LAIV) used in the United States is based on the cold-passaged A/AnnArbor/6/60 strain (AA). An alternative LAIV (Len), developed from the cold-passaged A/Leningrad/134/17/57 strain, has also been used in some countries outside the United States. Recent concerns with the efficacy and safety of the current US LAIV warrant the development of an improved LAIV.MethodsWe used in vitro minireplicon and multicycle viral growth assays to analyze the combined effects of polymerase mutations from LAIV (AA) and LAIV (Len) on the phenotype of PR8. Mini-replicon assays were performed in HEK-293T cells with firefly luciferase under the control of the influenza virus NP promoter; we controlled for cell density with a constitutively active Renilla luciferase. Multicycle growth curve experiments were performed at 33°C, 37°C, and 39°C in MDCK cells with an m.o.i. of 0.001. Mean values for triplicate infections at 12, 24, 48, and 72 hours were plotted as TCID50/mL.ResultsControl experiments showed replication of PR8 (AA) and PR8 (Len) in MDCK cells was significantly decreased as compared with WT PR8 at 37°C and 39°C at 24–48 hour time points, but not at 33C (the temperature of nasal passages). We found that polymerase activity was up to 3 logs more temperature-sensitive (ts) at 37°C and 39°C with the combined Len and AA mutations using the mini-replicon assay. In the growth curve experiments, the combined Len and AA mutations conferred up to a 4-log decrease in replication levels at 37°C as compared with PR8 (Len) and an even greater decrease compared with PR8 (AA).ConclusionOur findings suggest combining the AA and Len LAIV polymerase mutations decreases LAIV replication at body temperature (37°C), as compared with either LAIV alone. This could be useful in developing an improved LAIV that is safer in vulnerable hosts (e.g., children under the age of 2 who may be vulnerable to wheezing), while also permitting dose escalation that might result in greater efficacy.Minireplicon assay. Polymerase activity of combination mutants. Multicycle replication kinetics of combination mutants (red) against PR8 Len (black) at 33C (solid), 37C (dashed) and 39C (dotted). Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.

Differences Depending on the Etiology of Influenza Epidemics in 2014-2017

The goal is to identify features of epidemic process of influenza depending on the etiology of epidemics to clarification of the forecast for future epidemics. Analysis of epidemics of influenza in Russia conducted according to the Federal center for influenza on morbidity, hospitalization and deaths from influenza in 59 Russian cities. The epidemic of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 2015–16 different from the mixed epidemics of influenza (A(H3N2) and B) 2014–15 and 2016–17 high development rate, high incidence of influenza and ARI at its peak, the incidence of hospitalization with a diagnosis of «influenza» (14%) and high mortality among the infected (6,0 on 100000). The epidemic of influenza A(H3N2) and B started earlier (December). They had a longer duration and the incidence in the cities and in the country, but less than the incidence at the peak of the epidemic and the incidence of hospitalization with a diagnosis of «influenza» (7.5 and 7.3%) and smaller (8.6 and 20 times) the mortality from the influenza. In these epidemics among the dead was higher than the percentage of children under 14 years and persons over 65 years of age than in the influenza epidemic 2015–16. And among the deaths increased the proportion of persons with chronic lung disease and immunodeficiency, but decreased the proportion of individuals with obesity and diseases of the liver and kidneys. For the period from 2009 to 2017 the tendency to increase the intensity of influenza A(H3N2) epidemics was 2.4 times greater than the decrease in the intensity of epidemic of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09.

"The Two Diseases Are So Utterly Dissimilar": Using Digital Humanities Tools to Advance Scholarship in the Global History of Medicine

The Russian influenza, which first received broad attention in St. Petersburg in November 1889 and spread across Europe and into the Americas over the next two months, occurred at a critical moment in the development of mass journalism, medical knowledge, and information technology. In this context, the question of whether “influenza is the forerunner of cholera” was prompted by a single statement by Russian physician Nikolai Fedorovich Zdekauer, made during a scholarly meeting in St. Petersburg yet quickly disseminated globally through newspapers and medical journals. Tracing the reporting on Zdekauer’s statement reveals how quickly misinformation could be transmitted on a global scale at a time of heightened concern about the threat of widespread disease. Yet these same sources, including newspapers and medical journals, also demonstrate how quickly both the leading authorities in medical science and publications aimed at public audiences questioned these reports and presented authoritative alternatives based on reasoned analysis. Affirming the dissimilarity of influenza and cholera also served to affirm the value of a public sphere which allowed for measured discussion, thoughtful intervention, and the articulation of an emerging scientific consensus about disease etiology.

Fatal Cases of Seasonal Influenza in Russia in 2015-2016.

The influenza epidemic in 2015–2016 in Russia is characterized by a sharp increase of influenza cases (beginning from the second week of 2016) with increased fatalities. Influenza was confirmed in 20 fatal cases registered among children (0–10 years), in 5 cases among pregnant women, and in 173 cases among elderly people (60 years and older). Two hundred and ninety nine people died from influenza were patients with some chronic problems. The overwhelming majority among the deceased (more than 98%) were not vaccinated against influenza. We isolated 109 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and one A(H3N2) virus strains from 501 autopsy material samples. The antigenic features of the strains were similar to the vaccine strains. A phylogenic analysis of hemagglutinin revealed that influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus strains belonged to 6B genetic group that had two main dominant subgroups during the 2015–2016 season. In Russia strains of the first group predominated. We registered an increased proportion of strains with D222G mutation in receptor-binding site. A herd immunity analysis carried out immediately prior to the epidemic showed that 34.4% blood sera samples collected in different regions of Russia were positive to A/California/07/09(H1N1)pdm09. We came to a conclusion that public awareness enhancement is necessary to reduce unreasonable refusals of vaccination.

Look Out for 'La Grippe': Using Digital Humanities Tools to Interpret Information Dissemination during the Russian Flu, 1889-90.

Look Out for 'La Grippe': Using Digital Humanities Tools to Interpret Information Dissemination during the Russian Flu, 1889-90.

The Epidemiological Situation of Influenza in the World and Russia in the Season 2014 – 2015

Comparison of spatial-temporal spread of influenza in the Northern and southern hemispheres according to the WHO and the analysis of the epidemic of influenza in Russia in the 2014 – 2015 season, according to the research Institute of influenza on the incidence of influenza and ARI in 59 cities of Russia.It is shown that in the season 2014 – 2015 in the Northern hemisphere, the intensity of the epidemics was higher in North America and Europe than East Asia and North Africa. In the Southern hemisphere have experienced low influenza activity. In the etiology of epidemics in countries of both hemispheres was dominated by influenza A(H3N2) and influenza B. The proportion of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was less in the Southern hemisphere was higher than in Northern countries. The incidence of influenza A(H3N2) in the Northern hemisphere was predominantly linked to the new strain A/Switzerland/9715293/2013 (H3N2), differing from the vaccine. In Europe, the majority of circulating influenza B strains were related to the strain B/Phuket/3073/2013, did not match the vaccine.In Russia the intensity of the influenza epidemic in 2015, was more than the previous epidemic of 2014, the prevalence in the cities, the morbidity especially children 7 – 14 years of age and adult population, the incidence of hospitalization with a diagnosis of «influenza» and the number of deaths.

Influenza in Russia in the season 2014–2015: Epidemiology and antigenic properties of viruses

Influenza in Russia in the season 2014–2015: Epidemiology and antigenic properties of viruses

Molecular genetic factors of pathogenicity of influenza A virus (H1N1) pdm09

Unlike influenza epidemics which affect the population almost yearly, pandemics occur much less frequently, but have more severe medical and social consequences. The investigation of the nature of the course of all modern epidemics and pandemics are acquiring the particular rationale. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 was caused by the virus of the mixed (triple) origin. In Russia, the first three cases of disease have been identified in Moscow from 21 to 10 June 2009. In the Far East - 2-2,5 months later compared to the European part of Russia. However, the epidemic of influenza in Russia caused by influenza virus A (H1N1) pdm09, began and developed more rapidly just in the Far East. The highest morbidity rate (10,2-10,3 per 100 people) was registered in the cities of the Far Eastern and Siberian regions. The phylogenetic analysis allowed to reveal the origin of the triple reassortant virus A (H1N1)pdm09 out of H1N1, H1N2, H3N2 avian/porcine/human virus. The performed analysis of functional domains of proteins of the influenza virus A (H1N1) pdm09 showed that modern pandemic influenza viruses have several principal genetic defects, the totality of which permits to rank them to moderately pathogenic viruses. High risk of the severe course of influenza and occurrence of complications was noted in three groups ofpatients: pregnant women, especially in the 3 trimester ofpregnancy, children under 2 years of age and patients with concomitant chronic respiratory and cardiovascular systems, as well as patients with endocrine disorders and obesity.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of pandemic influenza.

BackgroundPrediction of timing for the onset and peak of an influenza pandemic is of vital importance for preventive measures. In order to identify common spatiotemporal patterns and climate influences for pandemics in Sweden we have studied the propagation in space and time of A(H1N1)pdm09 (10,000 laboratory verified cases), the Asian Influenza 1957–1958 (275,000 cases of influenza-like illness (ILI), reported by local physicians) and the Russian Influenza 1889–1890 (32,600 ILI cases reported by physicians shortly after the end of the outbreak).MethodsAll cases were geocoded and analysed in space and time. Animated video sequences, showing weekly incidence per municipality and its geographically weighted mean (GWM), were created to depict and compare the spread of the pandemics. Daily data from 1957–1958 on temperature and precipitation from 39 weather stations were collected and analysed with the case data to examine possible climatological effects on the influenza dissemination.ResultsThe epidemic period lasted 11 weeks for the Russian Influenza, 10 weeks for the Asian Influenza and 9 weeks for the A(H1N1)pdm09. The Russian Influenza arrived in Sweden during the winter and was immediately disseminated, while both the Asian Influenza and the A(H1N1)pdm09 arrived during the spring. They were seeded over the country during the summer, but did not peak until October-November. The weekly GWM of the incidence moved along a line from southwest to northeast for the Russian and Asian Influenza but northeast to southwest for the A(H1N1)pdm09. The local epidemic periods of the Asian Influenza were preceded by falling temperature in all but one of the locations analysed.ConclusionsThe power of spatiotemporal analysis and modeling for pandemic spread was clearly demonstrated. The epidemic period lasted approximately 10 weeks for all pandemics. None of the pandemics had its epidemic period before late autumn. The epidemic period of the Asian Influenza was preceded by falling temperatures. Climate influences on pandemic spread seem important and should be further investigated.

A New Algorithm for Identifying Possible Epidemic Sources with Application to the German Escherichia coli Outbreak

In this paper we describe a recently developed algorithm called Topological Weighted Centroid (TWC). TWC takes locations of an event of interest and analyzes the possible associated dynamics using the ideas of free energy and entropy. This novel mathematical tool has been applied to a real world example, the epidemic outbreak caused by Escherichia coli that occurred in Germany in 2011, to point out the real source of the outbreak. Other four examples of application to other epidemic spreads are described: Chikungunya fever of 2007 in Italy; Foot and mouth disease of 1967 in England; Cholera of 1854 in London; and the Russian influenza of 1889–1890 in Sweden. Comparisons have been made with other already published algorithms: Rossmo Algorithm, NES, LVM, Mexican Prob. The TWC results are significantly superior in comparison with other algorithms according to four independent indexes: distance from the peak, sensitivity, specificity and searching area. They are consistent with the idea that the spread of infectious disease is not random but follows a progression based on inherent, but as yet undiscovered, mathematical laws. The TWC method could provide an additional powerful tool for the investigation of the early stages of an epidemic and novel simulation methods for understanding the process through which a disease is spread.

ANTI-INFLUENZA VIRUS ACTIVITY OF TWO EXTRACTS OF THE BLACKCURRANT (RIBES NIGRUM L.) FROM NEW ZEALAND AND POLAND

We investigated the inhibitory effect of extracts of blackcurrant (Ribes nigrum L.) from New Zealand and Poland on 4 strains of influenza virus (IFV) by the inhibition of virus adsorption; pandemic flu from 2009-2010 (IFV-AH1pdm), Hong Kong flu (IFV-AH3), oseltamivir phosphate-resistant Russian flu (IFV-AH1tamr) and influenza virus type B (IFV-B). The inhibitory effect of the extracts of blackcurrant or blueberry on the infectivity of the virion were evaluated by the inhibition of virus adsorption on the cell surface (adsorption-inhibitory assay). Three percent solutions of the blackcurrant extracts from New Zealand and Poland were enough to disinfect more than half of IFV-AH1pdm and IFV-B, and 10% solutions from both regions disinfected all IFV strains completely. Our previous study showed that the antiviral effect of the blackcurrant differed according to viral species. Here we showed that although the antiviral effect of Blackcurrant was slightly different within viral strains from one species, the extract of Blackcurrant could disinfect all of 4 IFV strains we examined. The extracts of blackcurrant showed definite potential for use as a disinfectant and antiseptic agent to prevent IFV infection.

Ladies from Hell, Aberdeen Free Gardeners, and the Russian influenza: An anthropometric analysis of WWI-era Scottish soldiers and civilians

We analyze data on the height of Scottish men, both civilians and members of the military forces serving in World War I measured in the 1910s, in order to provide another window into the biological well-being of late nineteenth-century birth cohorts. The evidence indicates that rural residents still had a distinct height advantage over their urban counterparts and that military men displayed a slower growth profile than did civilians, but mean heights for the two groups of adults were similar. Mean stature for both groups is well above those found by Floud for British troops born in the 1880s and greater than that of Scottish convicts from the 1830s. Men who were in utero between 1889 and 1893 were slightly stunted, “marked for life” by an encounter with the Russian influenza which struck the region repeatedly.

The ‘Russian’ influenza in the UK: Lessons learned, opportunities missed

This paper describes British efforts to map the Russian influenza outbreaks of the early 1890s and describe the timing and course of the epidemic waves. Drawing on two surveys conducted by Britain's Local Government Board (LGB), the paper shows how, in a pre-virological era, the board was able to establish that influenza was an intensely infectious disease. Its key observation, however, was that Russian influenza had taken the form of three, and possibly four, distinct waves of infection, with the second wave in the spring of 1891 proving more lethal than the first wave, and the third wave in the winter of 1892 proving almost as lethal again. Most of this mortality was due to excess deaths from respiratory disease, particularly in the middle age ranges, but while these insights could and, arguably, should have aided the public health response, British health authorities preferred to advocate cautious preventive measures that did little to alleviate the pandemic's impact. The policy would prove especially costly in 1918–1919 when the LGB missed the opportunity to provide extra nursing cover for influenza convalescents following the initial summer wave of the 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic.

Genetic and biological characterization of avian influenza H5N1 viruses isolated from wild birds and poultry in Western Siberia

Three viruses included in the study were isolated from dead birds (A/duck/Omsk/1822/2006, A/chicken/Reshoty/02/2006, and A/duck/Tuva/01/2006), whereas the virus A/common gull/Chany/P/2006 was isolated from an apparently healthy gull during outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Russia in 2006. The intravenous pathogenicity index (IVPI) of viruses A/duck/Omsk/1822/2006, A/chicken/Reshoty/02/2006, and A/duck/Tuva/01/2006 ranged from 2.7 to 3.0, while the virus A/common gull/Chany/P/2006 had a markedly lower IVPI of 1.7. The virus A/common gull/Chany/P/2006 had a unique pattern of six amino acid substitutions in the regions of viral proteins crucial for virulence of H5N1 viruses. We hypothesize that these substitutions may affect the pathogenicity of A/common gull/Chany/P/2006.

On parameter estimation in population models II: Multi-dimensional processes and transient dynamics

Recently, a computationally-efficient method was presented for calibrating a wide-class of Markov processes from discrete-sampled abundance data. The method was illustrated with respect to one-dimensional processes and required the assumption of stationarity. Here we demonstrate that the approach may be directly extended to multi-dimensional processes, and two analogous computationally-efficient methods for non-stationary processes are developed. These methods are illustrated with respect to disease and population models, including application to infectious count data from an outbreak of “Russian influenza” (A/USSR/1977 H1N1) in an educational institution. The methodology is also shown to provide an efficient, simple and yet rigorous approach to calibrating disease processes with gamma-distributed infectious period.

The Russian influenza in Sweden in 1889-90: an example of Geographic Information System analysis

Using data from a study of the 1889-90 Russian flu in Sweden, this article describes how the application of Geographic Information System (GIS) may improve analyses and presentation of surveillance data. In 1890, immediately after the outbreak, all Swedish doctors were asked to provide information about the start and the peak of the epidemic, and the total number of cases in their region and to fill in a questionnaire on the number, sex and age of infected persons in the households they visited. General answers on the epidemic were received from 398 physicians and data on individual patients were available for more than 32,600 persons. These historic data were reanalysed with the use of GIS, in map documents and in animated video sequences, to depict the onset, the intensity and the spread of the disease over time. A stack diagram with the observations grouped into one week intervals was produced to depict the spread in one figure only. To better understand how the influenza was disseminated, Thiessen polygons were created around 70 places reported on by the doctors. Having prepared GIS layers of the population (divided into parishes), estimations could be made for all the Swedish parishes on the number of infected persons for each of the 15 weeks studied. The described models may be useful in current epidemiological investigations, as well.