Bank Of Russia Research Articles

К ВОПРОСУ О ФОРМИРОВАНИИ КРЕДИТНОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ РЕГИОНАЛЬНЫХ БАНКОВ (НА ПРИМЕРЕ ВОЛОГОДСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ)

The article examines the credit policy of existing credit institutions registered in the Vologda region. The role of regional banks, which play an important role in the sustainable development of the region, is currently increasing in the Russian banking system. Such banks are an important element of the financial system of a particular region. They carry out their activities taking into account the specifics of the region’s economy and the needs of individuals and legal entities of this subject. The assessment of the quality of the loan portfolio allowed the authors to identify the features and problems in the formation of the credit policy of local banks. The authors of the article define the type of credit policy, show the possibilities of further development of credit policy in modern conditions in order to increase the efficiency of banking activities and ensure the reliability of banks in the economy of the region.

О получении стохастических прогнозов в детерминированной модели банковской системы России

In this article we propose the method of obtaining forecasts in stochastic terms for deterministic models. The proposed method is computationally simpler than the one used in dyna­mic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. The method is based on the estimation of parameters in the deterministic paradigm and the estimation of the vector of sample means and the covariance matrix for the increments of exogeneous variables on the in-sample period. For every realization of exogeneous variables, the trajectories of endogenous variables is calculated. The methods of mathematical statistics such as moments calculation, construction of confidence intervals, testing various hypotheses can be applied to them. The approach is illustrated on the model of the Russian banking system, which successfully reproduces the wide set of its indicators. Several interesting properties of the obtained stochastic forecasts were found, including the violation of their normality and the nontrivial dynamics of confidence intervals. Several scenarios of key rate and exchange rate resembling their actual dynamics in the beginning of the 2022. Several conclusions on the influence of key rate and exchange rate on the basic indicators of the banking systems are made. In particular, several effects are found which could not be discovered in the purely deterministic modelling paradigm.

Russian Banking Sector in 2022

Russian Banking Sector in 2022

ЦИФРОВОЙ БАНКИНГ И ПРОНИКНОВЕНИЕ ТЕХНОЛОГИЙ FINTECH В БАНКОВСКУЮ СФЕРУ В ЦИФРОВУЮ ЭПОХУ

The article discusses the factors in the development of digital banking. Particular attention is paid to the penetration of fintech into the banking sector as a guarantee of maintaining the competitiveness of banks in the digital age. The foreign experience of digital transformation of traditional banks is considered, its stages are highlighted. The significant growth potential of digitalization of the Russian banking sector is shown.

ESG-lending in the Russian economy

The purpose of the article is to consider the current state of ESG lending in the Russian economy, the features of ESG rating of Russian financial companies and approaches to potential borrowers, and to identify the most relevant areas for the development of ESG lending to Russian companies. Despite the fact that Russian companies and the Russian economy are under sanctions and the opportunities to enter foreign markets are significantly limited, ESG remains relevant. An analysis of ESG practices in the banking sector conducted in 2022 by Expert RA showed that only large credit institutions follow the ESG concept. More than 50% of the top 20 banks have implemented KPIs for ESG indicators in their lending and investment processes. In the practice of Russian banks, ESG-assessment of credit risks includes indicators of default probability, analysis and evaluation of portfolios in terms of industry/geographical concentrations, exposure limits, borrowing strategies, scenario analysis and/or stress testing. It is concluded that Russian companies in the financial sector use ESG approache for their own strategic development and for lending to their clients, and that government support is required for the ESG transformation of the banking sector.

Instruments for post-contract opportunism in Islamic law

In the modern world, the conclusion of a contract is commonplace, but it is still important to prevent opportunistic behavior of market participants at the stage of post-contractual relations. From a financial point of view, it is important to prescribe such terms of the contract so that its violation will cost more for the party that does not comply with the clauses of the contract than further joint activities. However, in Islamic law there are a number of restrictions on the use of traditional tools to ensure compliance with the terms of the contract, which created the prerequisites for this study. The work is becoming even more relevant against the background of the introduction of a bill to the State Duma of the Russian Federation on partner financing activities, in fact, created for Islamic banking, as well as interest from the largest Russian banks. The purpose of this article is to identify tools to deter post-contractual opportunism in Islamic law.

ДИНАМИКА ПИИ: АНАЛИЗ И ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ

The author has many years of experience in the Russian banking sphere, which is useful. So he comes to a conclusion that the actual slowdown of imported foreign direct investment (FDI) flows can be explained within the framework of the cyclical nature of economic development. That is why the article examines the hypothesis of the cyclical nature of economic development applied to analyses and forecasting of modern foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. The author uses statistics published by OECD, UNCTAD and IMF.

Banking Crisis of the 1880s in the Russian Empire: New Quantitative Data and Estimates

The study deals with the most significant crisis in the history of Russian banking, which occurred when 49 municipal banks and 13 mutual credit societies went bankrupt from 1882–1889. Historians have explained the causes of the crisis in various ways; however, these explanations are not fully verifiable due to lack of consolidated quantitative data on operations for municipal banks and mutual credit societies. Therefore, a new quantitative data set on these credit institutions was composed for this study. Comparison of the dynamics of joint-stock commercial banks, municipal banks, and mutual credit societies for 1875–1895 revealed that the decline in municipal banks was particularly sharp and deep, and it did not correlate with the dynamics of other banking institutions. This paper proves that the municipal banks crisis was caused by the accumulation of bad loans, poor financial stability, and the lack of proper control by municipal councils and the Ministry of Finance. Overcoming of these problems launched a new phase of banking regulation and supervision in the Russian Empire, which has been underestimated in historiography. The “pushing out” of municipal banks from risky operations was necessary to protect the financial interests of the municipal self-government associated with these banks. However, the crisis also had a pronounced regional perspective because most of the bankruptcies occurred in the Central Black Earth Region, and therefore the crisis was caused by a contraction in agricultural exports due to falling prices, combined with local crop failures in the first half of the 1880s.

The Study of Spatial Heterogeneity and Interregional Relations in the Processes of Attracting Banking Capital to the Russian Economy

Increased spatial heterogeneity in recent years in the processes of attracting banking capital to the Russian economy negatively affects the pace of socio-economic development of regions. The purpose of the research is to assess the dynamics of changes in spatial heterogeneity in the processes of attracting banking capital in the Russian economy and to model the system of interregional relationships in these processes. Scientific novelty of research is the development of a methodological approach involving the systematic use of methods such as: spatial autocorrelation analysis according to the methodology of P. Moran and L. Anselin, regression analysis using panel data, testing cause-and- effect relationships using the Granger method, formation of a matrix of functional dependencies between regional systems. The developed methodological approach allowed to confirm the trend of increasing spatial heterogeneity in the processes of attraction of banking capital in the Russian economy, to identify regional centers with a high level of concentration and formation a matrix of interregional relationships. It is shown that almost all Russian banking capital is now concentrated in Moscow, St. Petersburg and the Kostroma region. The inflow of bank capital into the economy of these regions leads to its outflow from regions with inverse relationships (negative index of spatial autocorrelation). The results of the research can be used by the executive authorities of the federal and regional levels to find mechanisms to attract banking capital in the economy of regions. One such mechanism could be a reduction in the key rate of the Bank of Russia and State support for regional banks that use low interest rates for lending to households and enterprises in the real sector of the economy.

Methodological Aspects of Valuation of Credit Institutions under External Uncertainty

The article is devoted to the research of the issues of commercial bank business valuation under the conditions of uncertainty. The study aims to develop a model for forecasting the value of total assets and loan portfolio of a commercial bank within the framework of value estimation under external uncertainty. The relevance of the paper is that in the context of the COVID‑19 pandemic, military actions and sanctions pressure it is difficult to justify the market value of credit institutions due to the difficulties in implementing the methodology of assessment of banks whose business is associated with increased risks. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of a regression model that allows forecasting the value of total assets and the loan portfolio of a commercial bank as key value factors under external uncertainty. The authors used the following methods of scientific research: deduction, induction, correlation and regression analysis, and logical method. The key factors of business valuation of Russian banks are systematized. The authors propose to build a model within the framework of the income approach, based on the forecast of external cost factors: total assets and loan portfolio of the banking sector. A leading indicator that affects total assets and loan portfolio is justified. A model has been developed which makes it possible to forecast the total assets and loan portfolios of the banking sector and find the required value of the assets of the bank being evaluated through the market share. The model is tested on the example of the valuation of Sber. The authors conclude that the model developed by the authors makes it possible to build scenarios for future cash flows and quantify the valuation interval of a commercial bank. The prospect of further research is related to evaluating the influence of internal financial and non-financial factors in the context of the valuation management system. The article will be useful to practicing appraisers in business valuation and investors.

Проблемы юзабилити в интернет-банкинге

As part of this article, a usability analysis of the mobile application interfaces for online banking of leading Russian banks is carried out. Usability indicators are evaluated in applications for Internet banking of Sberbank, Tinkoff Bank and VTB. The user properties are considered and the application functionality is compared. Their advantages and disadvantages from the users’ viewpoint are revealed. App scores from app stores and user feedback from a custom survey are employed. The online survey of respondents is conducted on the Google Forms platform. As a result, some functional redundancy and complexity for users of the presented applications are shown. Users’ negative perception of too frequent updates and improvements to applications is noted. This is especially expressed in Sberbank, which causes users’ fair criticism. In terms of usability, according to respondents, Tinkoff is the best application, and VTB is the worst. The level of accessibility to the application is approximately the same for Sberbank and Tinkoff mobile banks; it is slightly lower for VTB. Sberbank has a higher position in terms of information availability on the status of accounts and cards. It is also the leader in the number of subscribers. In general, it should be noted that there is significant potential for improving Internet banking applications, which in current implementations do not largely take into account the requirements of ergonomics and engineering psychology.

Challenges and Threats of the Digital Economy to the Sustainability of the National Banking System

The goal of the study – development of specific methodical reasoned proposals on improvement of the mechanism for ensuring sustainable development of the national banking system and its security against external challenges and threats to cyberspace. The scientific novelty consists in a comprehensive analysis of the processes of ensuring the cyber stability of the Russian banking system in the context of escalation of external challenges and threats to the digital economy. The authors used the following methods: general scientific (observation, comparison, measurement, analysis and synthesis, logical reasoning method), specific scientific (static analysis, peer review, graphical method). In the article conducted a critical review of domestic and foreign scientific literature and practical recommendations to ensure the protection of the banking institution from cyber threats in the digital economy; presented a comparative analysis of the organization of the cybersecurity system in the Russian and foreign banking systems; done multidimensional statistical analysis of cyber threats for Russian banks; substantiated recommendations and proposals on organizational, economic and legal improvement of the system of protection of Russian banks from internal and external cyber threats. As a result, it is shown that the main problem points (zones) of the banking system, creating the prerequisites for the occurrence of cyber-risks are: 1) there is no exchange of information on cyber-attacks and their mechanisms; 2) banks interact inefficiently with the state regulator of Internet – Roskomnadzor; 3) low level of competence of bank employees who are responsible for cybersecurity; 4) limited budget of small and medium-sized banks that wouldn’t allow them to care independent cyber-protection units; 5) growing popularity of new fintech services and new fintech companies. The author draws a conclusion that the following measures are necessary for organizational, economic and legal improvement of the system of protection of Russian banks from internal and external cyber threats: the processes of development of banking ecosystems should be intensified; a federal interbank register of cyber fraudsters must be created; a single banking «polygon» for testing cyber threats needs to be developed.

Минимизация издержек: философско-методологический анализ

In modern economic literature, as well as regulatory documents, the concepts of ‘inputs’, ‘expenses’ and ‘costs’ are often used as identical to each other. At the same time, there are differences between them and their incorrect interpretation can lead to incorrect analytical conclusions and, as a result, erroneous conclusions and subsequent losses in the financial and economic activities of a commercial organization. The problem of the theme in relation to ‘credit costs’ is also reflected in the fact that currently special regulatory documents regulating banking activities, such as Federal Law “About the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)” and Federal Law “About Banks and Bank Activities” do not contain a decoding of the mentioned concepts of ‘expenses’ or ‘costs’. Moreover, another document that could clarify this issue – the Accounting Regulations “Expenses of the Organization” № 10/99 in paragraph 1 we read: ‘1. This Regulation establishes the rules for the formation in accounting of information on expenses of commercial organizations (except credit and insurance organizations) that are legal entities under the legislation of the Russian Federation.’ In the paper, the author aims to differentiate the concepts of ‘expenses’ and ‘costs’, as well as to clarify and formulate such a concept as ‘credit costs’. The subjects raised by the author could be interesting for external investors, specialists of internal services of a commercial bank analyzing the effectiveness of a credit institution and, of course, the top management of the bank, most interested in both the profitability of its own investments and the formation of further policy of the bank led by them. The theoretical significance of the study lies in the consideration of different approaches to the concept of ‘costs’, the definition of banking instruments that affect the amount of credit costs, their systematization and the allocation of those that, according to the author, can be optimized without reducing the profitability of the credit organization. The concept of ‘credit costs’ is systematized.

The Russo-Chinese Bank as an Instrument of Russian Eastward Expansion (at the Turn of the XX Century)

The article attempts to define the role of the Russo-Chinese Bank in strengthening Russian influence in one of the regions of Qing China - Mongolia. Russia, which earlier practiced military and diplomatic methods to control territories in the sphere of its influence, in the late 19th century realized that the former ways of expansion did not meet the needs of the time. The Qing Empire, which was in political and economic crisis after its defeat in the First Sino-Japanese War of 1894–1895, was seen by the Tsarist autocracy as the most attractive location for capital. The main mechanism for incorporating Mongolia into the orbit of Russian influence was the Russo-Chinese Bank, which was established as Russia's financial intermediary in Asia. The Russian Empire's goals were political in nature: Mongolia was seen as a potential theatre of military action in a possible clash with China. The aim of this paper is to reconstruct the process of Russia's development of a banking network in Mongolia during the industrial boom of the empire at the turn of the 20th century. The analysis of documents preserved in the funds of the State Archives of the Republic of Buryatia and the business correspondence of the military governor of the Transbaikal Region showed that the appearance of the Russo-Chinese Bank in the Mongolian financial market contributed to the development of Russia-Mongolia relations, the growth of trade and industrial production in Mongolia and the frontier areas and the making of the credit and financial system of Mongolia. The Russian banking institution also accomplished its political mission of allying with the ruling circles of the empire and facilitating Russian economic expansion in Inner Asia.

Банковская выписка по расчетному счету организации как объект исследования при документировании преступлений в сфере экономической деятельности (на примере деятельности специалистов-ревизоров подразделения документальных исследований)

The article is devoted to the study of the system of non-cash payments in Russia, with the subsequent identification of problems that arise when analyzing the bank account statement by employees of documentary research units. The practical significance of the conclusions outlined by the authors based on the results of the study will contribute to the effective documentation of the crimes under consideration and consists in improving the regulatory framework governing the activities of Russian banks.

Зміна ролі криптовалют у світовій фінансовій системі через збройну агресію проти України

Introduction. Сryptocurrency as a component of Ukraine's digital war against Russia. Rapid collection of funds from all over the world to help Ukraine.The USA imposes sanctions on the Russian Federation. Russia is looking for methods to circumvent sanctions. The purpose of the research work is to develop proposals for greater effectiveness of international sanctions and to find new useful methods of using cryptocurrency for Ukraine, which is part of the international financial system. Problems. Sanction packages are applied to various sectors of the economy, and following the implementation results, the following packages of sanctions are produced by the countries, so, according to the results of the implementation of sanctions, certain Russian banking institutions have been circumvented by using crypto market tools and operators that interact with sanctioned Russian banks, companies, and individuals. The use of traditional financial services, financial technologies and alternative payment services is a more effective way of circumventing sanctions in terms of volumes and costs than the use of crypto-assets.Goal. Development of proposals to increase the influence on the implementation and effectiveness of international sanctions, the need to take quick and optimal actions to eliminate the activities of many Russian cryptocurrency tools for circumventing sanctions. Materials and methods. General scientific and research methods are used: analysis, theoretical generalization, synthesis, description, comparison, observation and study of foreign mass media articles. Results. Attention was focused on Ukraine's new positive use of cryptocurrency, which is part of the international financial system, unprecedented use of new digital assets to raise funds to support Ukraine during the war. Conclusions. Crypto assets have become Ukraine's deadly weapon against Russia. Taking into account the advantages of the circulation of cryptocurrencies and virtual assets in general, the private sector in Ukraine organized charitable funds for the accumulation of resources, among which crypto funds took a leading place and were able to quickly cover the needs of defenders of Ukraine, citizens who suffered from Russian military aggression, supported socially vulnerable Ukrainian citizens. At the same time, IT specialists and amateurs organized themselves into an IT army, which was able to completely or for significant periods stop the activity of the infrastructure of the aggressor states, which slowed down the flow of resources for the continuation and escalation of military operations.

How Does CEO’s Human Capital Influence Innovation Strategy of Russian Banks?

The paper evaluates influence of human capital of top management on innovation strategy on the basis of study of innovation activity of Russian commercial banks in the period of 2017–2019. We have compiled a rating of commercial banks for retail segment innovations, selected the four least innovative banks. We have studied the key indicators of human capitalof top management in eight chosen banks. The paper has revealed the interrelation between different elements of human capital of top management and innovation strategies of Russian commercial banks. We have defined personal traits which portray a manager who exerts influence on innovations in a company.
 The paper is intended for investors in emerging markets which try to understand the evaluation mechanisms of impact of the financial companies’ current management on their future development path, for analysts engaged in forecasting trends related to optimization and automation in retail banking and assessment of corporate innovative capacity.

Assessment of the competitiveness of products (services) of small banks in Russia

Assessment of the competitiveness of products (services) of small banks in Russia

Жанр «миссия организации» в русскоязычном банковском дискурсе: структура, прагматика и языковое наполнение

The paper aims to identify the pragmatics and structural-linguistic peculiarities of the texts belonging to the genre of mission statements that play an essential role in external and internal communications initiated by modern banks. The research is novel in that it is the first in Russian linguistics to examine the texts belonging to the genre of mission statements in relation to the corporate culture supported by the Russian banking community, using original empirical materials. As a result, the role that the genre of mission statements plays in the space of Russian-language banking discourse has been identified; the syncretic nature of the texts of this genre produced by Russian banks have been revealed; the linguistic mechanisms used by the banks to create a positive image at the explicit and implicit levels in the process of informing on their corporate philosophy and values have been described. It has also been found that Russian banks use positively charged words, superlative forms of adjectives, rhetorical devices and expressive syntactical techniques, as well as implied or overtly unexpressed meanings of linguistic forms and non-verbal components of the text when solving PR tasks in the texts belonging to the genre under consideration.

Export of fat and oil products of Russia in the conditions of sanctions

The growing global demand for fat-and-oil products stimulates the production of oilseeds and their processed products in various countries, including Russia. Along with production, exports are also growing. In Russia, fat-and-oil products are among the three leaders of agricultural exports. In the current 2021/22 marketing year (MG), a high sunfl ower harvest is expected and, accordingly, an increase in the production of its processed products — sunflower oil and meal. Russia can significantly increase the export of sunfl ower oil and come out on top in this indicator. However, the realization of the country’s export potential for oilseed products is complicated in the context of sanctions pressure from Western countries. The main problem at present is the obstacles that have arisen in the implementation of the international delivery of products intended for export, namely the refusal of foreign sea carriers to work with Russia, the shortage of containers for the delivery of goods by rail, its often low capacity and delays at border checkpoints. In addition, a signifi cant limitation for exports is the current unfavorable situation in the fi eld of international settlements for the payment of shipped products, due to the sanctions imposed on Russian banks and the refusal of a number of foreign banks to transfer funds intended to pay for Russian export products as a result. To solve the problems that have arisen, joint efforts of the state and business are needed in a forced mode.