Russian Attack Research Articles

The War Against Ukraine and the EU: Facing New Realities, edited by Claudia Wiesner and Michèle Knodt. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. XIII, 230 pp. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-35040-5.

This book discusses the multiple implications of the war against Ukraine for the EU political system. It draws on a number of different authors to analyse the main dimensions of the Russian attack on Ukraine and the subsequent large-scale war, which impact the global order and EU foreign policy. In the context of war and Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU needs to position itself in a changing world order, internal and external challenges to liberal democracy and the development of its strategic autonomy. In various chapters of the book, the development and strengthening of strategic partnership and friendship with Ukraine is considered by the EU as one of the central foreign policy priorities. Without the support of the Ukrainian partner, it is difficult for the EU to achieve positive results in European politics and play the role of an influential power in the international arena. In this context, various authors note that only the formation of political and economic ties between the EU and Ukraine will be the optimal way out of the full-scale war and crisis that Ukraine has found itself in. Only the combination of opportunities and efforts will allow the Ukrainian political elite and society to eventually stand on par with leading European countries.

A decade after the escalation of the crisis: how probable is the membership of Ukraine in the European Union?

At the last day of February 2022, Ukraine applied for membership in the European Union. This happened eight years after Russia has taken over Crimea, while engaging in the military support of the pro-Russian forces in Donbas region seceding from Ukraine. The country under military intervention was granted the European Union candidate status in June 2022, along with Moldova and Georgia, four months after the beginning of the Russian attack. Today, eight more countries are in the process of accession to the European Union, none of them being victim of an intervention. Two decades after the so-called Orange Revolution, and ten years after the initial Russian intervention, Ukraine has been stepping forward the European Union membership status. Exactly ten years have passed since the last enlargement of the bloc (in 2013, Croatia joined the Union), potentially signaling the most expressive period of the enlargement fatigue. In the era during which the skepticism for the enlargement is gaining momentum, it is of importance to explore whether Ukraine’s membership is truly acceptable, bearing in mind that the country is the victim of an ongoing intervention, being the first candidate country at war.

Continuing vocational training in times of economic uncertainty: an event-study analysis in real time

Continuing vocational training (CVT) is a key channel for employees to adapt their skills to changing requirements in the labor market due to structural changes and digitization. The COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis as a consequence of the war in Ukraine may have accelerated these developments. Yet, it is unclear how the economic impact of these crises affects individuals’ occupational preferences. In this study, we want to investigate how interest in CVT changes in times of economic uncertainty. We use Google Trends data for Germany and apply an event study analysis to examine how interest in CVT developed with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian attack on Ukraine. We find that the interest in CVT strongly declined during the first wave of the pandemic regardless of how severely a region was affected. During the second lockdown, the decline in CVT interest was more pronounced in the eastern German states where we find a general decline in search intensity since March 2020. We also consider different channels that may have influenced the demand for CVT during the pandemic. Overall, we show that during the first 2.5 years of the pandemic, the search intensity for CVT decreased on average by 12 to 19 percent, while the search intensity for online CVT increased by 39 to 45 percent. We also see a decrease in the search intensity for CVT at the beginning of the energy crisis.

Interplay of Crises: Mapping the Scientific Landscape of Intersecting Themes in the Covid-19 Pandemic and the Russian-Ukraine War

Background: In February 2022, Russian Federation troops attacked Ukraine on several fronts, thereby starting a war that continues to this day. The invasion garnered worldwide opposition, leading to sanctions imposed on politicians and corporations in the Russian Federation. The war has also left its mark on art, culture, and science. Methods: In this study, we analyse the war in Ukraine and how scholars around the world have examined it. The analysis is divided into three parts: (1) a comprehensive review of the number of articles and conference proceedings related to the Russia-Ukraine war in the Web of Science (WoS) disciplines/categories; (2) the main topics and directions chosen by the authors; and (3) a summary of studies focused on COVID-19 during the war. The latter topic is particularly important, as the COVID-19 situation in Ukraine was already complex before the 2022 invasion, and the ongoing military actions have further exacerbated it. For the above analyses, we utilised a WoS database from 2014 (covering the first Russian attack on Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk regions) through December 2022. Results and Conclusions: For academics, the war in Ukraine has become a significant subject of study. As it proliferated, culminating in a direct mass attack in February 2022, research efforts involved more and more scientific fields. These fields range from political science and sociology research to psychology and marketing to engineering science or supply chains.

Forum: Infrastructure

It was Europe’s wake up call: the news reported that a huge gas pipeline running across the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany had exploded (Oltermann 2022). The explosion caused a release of gas and ruptured the pipeline, abruptly stopping the flow of gas. In the aftermath of the Russian attack and war on Ukraine, we have seen time and again how infrastructure becomes the main stage for power struggles and politics (infrastructure destroyed for various reasons) on the one hand, and how today’s infrastructures scale up to a global level and then back down to local arenas, affecting the lives of millions of people, on the other. While the pipeline explosion is only one recent example of the impact and mobilisation of infrastructures in today’s fragile global context, it well illustrates the ways in which infrastructures create and dismantle relationships, politics, connections, and disconnections, sometimes on a massive scale.

The role of the individual in determining the vectors of socio-economic development and implementation of state management decisions

This article is devoted to the study of human traits like “charisma,” and its origin, features, and character of a trait. It is interpreted as a natural factor or an acquired quality of a leader (heroic person), an engine of social progress in extreme conditions. Using the example of a specific charismatic personality, this article reveals the peculiarities of his development and career growth in social transformations. Also, similar categories and concepts in the context of "person-personality," "charisma-charismatic," and "hero-heroism" in their relationship and interdependence are studied. Despite all the adverse circumstances, Ukraine resisted the unprovoked Russian attack furiously. Only the Heroic, charismatic people, charismatic commanders, and exceptional warriors, in whose veins not only restless Cossack blood but also professional ones boiled, were able to resist a deadly attack from a barbaric country. Today, the words "charismatic leader," "charismatic commander," "charismatic volunteer," "heroic person," "heroic deed," and "distinguished personality" characterize the Ukrainian nation and Ukrainians. In the complex processes of state-building, it is not the conventional beauties and academic intellects that rise to prominence, but the 'charismatic personalities' who possess the ability to tackle intricate tasks and guide their subordinates in production, military, and defense tasks. These proactive, professional, and charismatic individuals often ascend to leadership positions in science, practice, production, and the service sector, achieving remarkable career growth, even in volunteer activities and military and defense affairs. It is worth noting that these definitions, terms, and concepts are more frequently associated with psychological narratives than with management categories or the resolution of current production issues. This underscores the importance of comprehending the journey of these individuals, how they evolve and transform into the figures they are today. Keywords: charisma, hero, personality, society, war, socio-economic development, transformative society.

Qualifying for international and national protection under the Polish legal order: Some remarks in the context of the war in Ukraine

The Russian Federation's actions against Ukraine in February 2014, having - at the time - the form of hybrid warfare, followed later by an armed assault that took place on 24 February 2022, have resulted in an unprecedented influx of refugees from across Poland's eastern border. As Poland faced a major challenge (also in legal terms), additional regulations had to be introduced to supplement the refugee protection standards already in place under national and international laws. The purpose of this paper is to identify the prerequisites (conditions) stemming from the catalogue of protective instruments provided for in Polish legal regulations that can be taken advantage of by Ukrainian citizens after the Russian attack of 24 February 2022. The thesis of this study is that Polish protective mechanisms are consistent and complementary, and that, insofar as they apply to Ukrainian citizens, they fulfil international obligations under the Convention relating to the Status of Refugees, adopted on 28 July 1951 and secondary European Union law, mainly Directive 2011/95/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 December 2011.

Differentiated Integration in the EU Regarding the Migration Crisis: Disputes Between the Member States

The European Union (EU) has been challenged by several crises lately. In addition to Brexit, the Euro crisis, and the migration crisis; global issues such as the coronavirus pandemic and the Russian attack on Ukraine affected the EU. The migration crisis, on the one hand, differs from the above-mentioned crises with one remarkable feature. The member states have no real consensus about forming a common migration policy. Besides, for geographic reasons, some member states put much more burden on immigrants. Agreeing on immigration becomes impossible for the border countries on the migration route and also transit countries. The paper argues that, unlike the other crises of the EU, the migration crisis reinforces EU integration in such a way that disputes between member states prevent the EU from making institutional changes about the issue. The study results assume that the other above-mentioned crises, on the other hand, stimulated institutional change throughout the EU. In light of this information, this study evaluates, using a method of relevant literature review and comparing the arguments of the researchers, how the migration issue became a subject of dispute between member states by evaluating the 2015 crisis.

Післявоєнне відновлення України: основні кроки та досвід провідних країн

The Russian attack has brought heavy losses to the Ukrainian economy. At the beginning of January 2023, the government estimated them at more than USD 700 billion. The authors have examined the experience of restoring the German and Japanese economies after 1945. In the West and in Ukraine a new Marshall Plan is being talked about. The Ukrainian plan is USD 750 billion over 10 years, which is a multiple of the funds allocated to the FRG after 1945. It is planned to give money mainly for energy, access to finance, infrastructure and housing construction. Compared to investing in the ruined German economy. There are common features, but the "new Marshall Plan" is a conventional name. The Japanese experience is considered, i.e. cartels destruction and land distribution to small owners. The German experience is useful for Ukraine.

How Social Networks Shape Refugee Movements in Wartime: Evidence from the Russian Attack on Ukraine

This article analyzes the key factors guiding the destination choice of Ukrainian refugees in the EU between March and December 2022 in the framework of the activation of the Temporary Protection Directive. To this end, it specifies a migration model, computed for the whole period and two subperiods (March–May and June–December), that captures the influence of social networks. Furthermore, our migration model makes a distinction for the first time between prewar migrant communities and the new social networks that are emerging in wartime circumstances. The estimation of the model, using the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood estimator by Santos Silva and Tenreyro (2006), confirmed the importance of both types of social networks in explaining refugees’ choice of destination. The results also revealed that some economic variables (expected earnings and the size of the informal sector) influenced the location choice of refugees since the outbreak of the war, while other socioeconomic and political factors (risk of social exclusion, anti-immigration sentiment, and rule of law) only did so after a few months, when it became increasingly self-evident that the war was going on for a long time.

Most Unusual Twin Pairs: A Look at Uterus Didelphys / Twin Research Reviews: Prenatal Aneuploidy Screening for Twin Pregnancies; Twin Conceptions by Same-Sex Male Couples; Legal Personality of Conjoined Twins; Twin Study of Cannabis Use / Human Interest and Importance: Being Taken for Twins Saved Sisters; Twin Children of Jailed Nobel Prize Winner; British 'Biracial' Twins; Triplets Born at Start

A review of an unusual twin type-twins born to women with two uteri (uterus didelphys)-is presented. This review is followed by summaries of recent research and perspectives concerning prenatal aneuploidy screening for twin pregnancies, twin conceptions by same-sex male couples, legal personality of conjoined twins, and a twin study of cannabis use. Interesting information about twins that has appeared in the media is also presented, namely how being taken for twins saved a pair of sisters; twin children of a jailed Nobel Prize winner, British 'biracial' twins, triplets born at the start of Russia's attack on Ukraine, and twins born in different years.

NATO’S POSITION ON THE UKRAINIAN CRISIS AND ITS FUTURE (2014-2022)

The twenty-first century has brought new security challenges, some of which are taking place close to European borders, the most notable of which was the Russian attack on Ukraine, which challenged European political principles and basic values, and which came as a test of the strength of the European Union. The unity and power of the West, and it was a shock that made Europe wake up to threats that were possible and had actually been implemented. It had to respond and acknowledge that it was facing a military threat, and as a result the European Union had to strengthen its security and decided to strengthen cooperation with NATO Increasing the size of defense budgets is the way to do this. The European security strategy needed to be reviewed and updated, taking into account changes in the strategic environment, types of challenges, lack of resources, integration processes, and the positions of European citizens and decision-makers in Europe and the United States. Therefore, the European Union must seriously consider To the new challenges, the complex nature of security threats, the new political environment and the legal framework formulated after the Lisbon Treaty in 2009, In the new strategic concept of NATO in 2010, the problem of the Crimean Peninsula and its annexation to the Russian side demonstrated the importance of its strategic location, which made it the focus of an international crisis, and witnessed positions and interventions that amounted to a Russian-Ukrainian collision (the main parties to the crisis), with the presence of secondary driving parties. It has, largely like the United States and NATO, and the relationship between NATO, which was founded in 1949, and Ukraine, is one of the most important partnerships of the alliance. In 1994, Ukraine was the first country to join - after the Baltic states - the NATO Partnership for Peace, and in 1997 it was established The (NATO-Ukraine) Committee, under which Ukraine adopted non alignment, rejecting aspirations for NATO membership, but all that changed in 2014, after the Russian invasion and the Ukrainian Parliament rejected that status

We’re All the Same: Collective Narcissists’ Cross-National Support for Putin and Russian Military Attacks

National narcissism is associated with support for nationalist and anti-democratic leaders and decisions in one’s own country. We hypothesize that it might also relate to more favorable judgments of outgroup nationalist leaders and actions, even if the latter may pose a threat to the ingroup. Using the context of the Russian attack on Ukraine, we hypothesize that people with a higher level of national narcissism would be more supportive of Russian attacks, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the Russian people. This may be due to a higher perception of belief similarity to Putin and Russians. We also considered the moderating role of the explicit target of the attack (Ukraine vs. ingroup). We tested our hypotheses in two studies (Study 1: N = 339 French; Study 2: N = 400 Americans). In both studies, national narcissism was related to a judgment of the attack (on Ukraine or the ingroup) as less immoral and to a better opinion of Putin. These effects were mediated by perceived belief similarity. In both studies however, these less negative judgments of the attack and of Putin did not extend to Russian people. Our results highlight that national narcissists are inclined to support a nationalist outgroup leader and their violent actions, although these may ultimately harm the ingroup.

Projekt badawczo-edukacyjny „Ukrainian Teaching Materials 2022” dla wrocławskich przedszkoli i edukacji wczesnoszkolnej – prezentacja wyników badań sondażowych

Alongside the tragic consequences of the armed conflict, the Russian attack on Ukraine in 2022 resulted in an upheaval within the educational system in Poland. This situation posed challenges for Ukrainian children arriving in Poland as well as for teachers and students in educational institutions where refugee children were being admitted without restrictions. The author’s research and educational project “Ukrainian Teaching Materials 2022” for Wrocław’s pre – and early school education in 2022 aimed to support the development of language skills among refugee children in their native language and in Polish, and to support preschool and early school teachers in this endeavour by providing them with appropriately prepared methodological packages. A diagnostic survey identified teachers’ needs regarding methodological materials. At the same time, a follow-up focus group interview conducted 30–40 days later presented teachers’ reflections and experiences in teaching in linguistically and culturally diverse groups during the initial period of the war migration. The project was also aimed to raise awareness among teachers and to cultivate an open attitude towards using bilingual and Ukrainian-language materials in working with children with war migration experience. Due to the collected extensive research material, the research findings were divided into two parts: the first part presents the theoretical and methodological context of the project as well as the results of the survey. In contrast, the second part presents the results of the focus group research and discussion based on the literature review.

International and Regional Security Issue: Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) and National Security of Nepal

International security is a comprehensive concept. There is a change in the dynamics of international security in the international arena. In the present context, the world has been shifting from unipolar to multipolar. The rise of China and the latest Russian attack on Ukraine have changed previous paradigms and parameters of international and regional security. After the proposed Belt and Road Initiate (BRI) by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013, the United States and its alliance proposed the Indo-pacific strategy (IPS) to counter the BRI. This article aims to give answer how and why IPS is crucial for international security, South Asian regional security and national security of Nepal. The objectives of this article are to analyze the security challenges created by IPS in international arena, to assess the security threat created by IPS in South Asian region, and to explore how Nepal can resolve and minimize a threat created by IPS and protect and promote its national security regarding IPS. In the context of South Asia, India is also involved in IPS. India is the dominant power in South Asia, so the active involvement of India in IPS also creates a threat to the regional security of South Asia. Nepal has to be conscious of the security aspect while cooperating with China, India, and other countries. Nepal is sensitive in terms of geopolitical, geo-strategic, and geo-economic aspects. The immediate neighbors’ China and India have been emerging as new great powers of the world. On the other hand, other great powers in the world also have prioritized Nepal strategically. So, Nepal has to continue its non-alignment trend and focus on its economic development and prosperity.

Substitutive trauma: preparing grounds for the Russian attack on Ukraine.

This article introduces a new concept, that of "substitutive trauma," which refers to the utilisation of unprocessed collective traumatic experiences by political leadership to create shared feelings of victimhood and vengeful at-titudes within a population, protecting them onto new target/object. The analysis explores how a substitutive trauma-based psycho-po-litical dynamic culminated in February 2022 in Russia's war against Ukraine. The article argues that the community of traumatic stress professionals, studying and understanding macro-societal processes can contribute to reducing and ameliorating such destructive psycho-political developments.

Strach w obliczu wojny w Ukrainie: osobiste i geopolityczne obawy młodych Polek i Polaków

Russia’s attack on Ukraine has acutely affected the experiences of Polish women and men and has translated into a sense of living in constant danger in a society of risk and fear. Young people who have not yet achieved stability and are less socially anchored, are particularly vulnerable to fear, anxiety, economic degradation and a loss of ontological security. In this context, the article uses quantitative and qualitative data from the ULTAGEN project focusing on entry into adulthood in times of crisis to map the personal and geopolitical concerns of young Polish women and men. Data from a representative CAWI survey (N = 2104), conducted in January 2023 among 18–35 year olds, showed that almost a year after the war broke out, the vast majority of them were still anxious about the future. Their concerns were primarily about the cumulative consequences of the war: the economic and energy crises, and deteriorating access to public services and the housing market. The respondents also continued to fear a Russian attack on Poland. The qualitative material in turn, collected using the asynchronous exchange technique in March and April 2022 as part of a qualitative longitudinal study, deepens the above findings with detailed analyses focused on two main axes. First of all, the empirical material shows fear of the political enemy, manifested in fears of the war spilling over, a total war, alongside a cumulative refugee-economic crisis, which the interviewees believed threaten national security. Secondly, at the individual level, fear is closely linked to the vision of a “threatened future”, with young people preaching doom and gloom. From a micro-sociological perspective, the narratives illustrate a constant uncertainty and danger. The findings of the mixed-methods research are interpreted through the prism of the sociology of fear and youth studies.

Settling into uncertainty and risk amidst the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine

ABSTRACT This study explores the process of navigating instability arising from sudden, co-occurring crises in the 2020s. We focus on the combined impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine on growing material and relational uncertainty and risk among Polish citizens, accumulating in the loss of ontological security. To showcase the practical and narrative presence of risk at the micro-level, we operationalize the broad theorization of risk society using the categorization of material, relational and subjective dimensions within the ‘unsettling events’ model proposed by Kilkey and Ryan. We reconceptualize the third pillar, positioning subjectivity as a meta-category. Moreover, we extend the application of the framework of unsettling events, treating the Polish situation as a case study for examining societies facing compounding catastrophes.The analyzed qualitative longitudinal data comprised 70 in-depth interviews about the pandemic and conducted with Polish young adults (ages 18–35) and their parents in 2021; and asynchronous responses from 43 study participants collected shortly after the Russian attack on Ukraine in 2022. Considering intergenerational and temporal lens, we identify the dominant patterns of meaning that interviewees attributed to the pandemic and war, thereby revealing materialities of unsettlement, relational gains and losses, and the erosion of ontological security. .

Lost in noise? Some thoughts on the use of machine learning in financial market risk measurement

Machine learning has permeated almost all areas in which inferences are drawn from financial data. Nevertheless, in financial market risk measurement most machine learning techniques struggle with some inherent difficulties: Financial time series are very noisy, not stationary and mostly considerably short. This paper contains an easy to implement sequential learning algorithm that overcomes some of these disadvantages. It is based on a Kalman filtering mechanism for quite general stochastic processes and provides a first step in the direction of separating parameter dynamics from the ubiquitous noise component. The core idea here is to use some stylised facts inherent to financial markets time series such as time varying measures of volatility. The new approach is tested using real market data in two different settings. First, a hypothetical portfolio containing credit spread and equity risk is analysed over a time frame containing the outbreak of the global pandemic in 2020 and the beginning of the Russian attack on Ukraine in 2022. Another analysis is focused on US$/EUR exchange rate during a time span containing the global financial crisis of 2008 and the subsequent European sovereign crisis. In all test calculations the proposed sequential learning algorithm performs better than the historical simulation approach used by many firms in the banking industry to meet regulatory capital requirements. Due to its simplicity this method has a high degree of explainability and interpretability which will decrease the inherent model risk. The paper concludes with a discussion of model risk for machine learning in financial institutions. Compared to classical model risk frameworks, the emphasis must be put on the more prominent role of data. The simple approach described in this paper shows that machine learning in financial market risk does not have to get lost in noise.

The European Green Deal Agenda After the Attack on Ukraine: Exogenous Shock Meets Policy‐Making Stability

The present article investigates how the EU climate and energy governance framework launched by the European Green Deal has been affected by the exogenous shock of the Russian war of aggression on Ukraine. Harnessing punctuated equilibrium theory, the theoretical approach applies its conceptual triad of policy images, venues, and feedback to the adoption of the current REPowerEU program as a critical test case of highly stable policy-making encountering a situation of exogenous shock. In the empirical part, a mixed-method content analysis of policy documents issued by the European Council and Commission from the adoption of the European Green Deal in 2019 to the current stage is presented to gauge the impact of the Russian attack on agenda-setting at the macro and meso-political levels of the EU. A second step evaluates how the expanded and more geopolitical policy image of the REPowerEU agenda is applied to extant governance processes. In this regard, the analysis identifies three factors limiting the impact of exogenous shock: the availability of three separate policy subsystems for the parallel processing of policy components, institutional safeguards for maintaining policy stability through supranational rules and provisions, and the critical function of the Commission in limiting revisions to a few targeted proposals. In conclusion, policy stability outweighs aspects of disruption and change, while the more diverse set of policy processes creates new challenges for the coherence of efforts to achieve decarbonization.