Settling into uncertainty and risk amidst the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study explores the process of navigating instability arising from sudden, co-occurring crises in the 2020s. We focus on the combined impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine on growing material and relational uncertainty and risk among Polish citizens, accumulating in the loss of ontological security. To showcase the practical and narrative presence of risk at the micro-level, we operationalize the broad theorization of risk society using the categorization of material, relational and subjective dimensions within the ‘unsettling events’ model proposed by Kilkey and Ryan. We reconceptualize the third pillar, positioning subjectivity as a meta-category. Moreover, we extend the application of the framework of unsettling events, treating the Polish situation as a case study for examining societies facing compounding catastrophes.The analyzed qualitative longitudinal data comprised 70 in-depth interviews about the pandemic and conducted with Polish young adults (ages 18–35) and their parents in 2021; and asynchronous responses from 43 study participants collected shortly after the Russian attack on Ukraine in 2022. Considering intergenerational and temporal lens, we identify the dominant patterns of meaning that interviewees attributed to the pandemic and war, thereby revealing materialities of unsettlement, relational gains and losses, and the erosion of ontological security. .