Rural Transit Systems Research Articles

Data-Driven Approach to State of Good Repair: Predicting Rolling Stock Service Life with Machine Learning for State of Good Repair Backlog Reduction and Long-Range Replacement Cost Estimation in Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems

This paper presents a data-driven approach to address the state of good repair (SGR) in small urban and rural transit systems in the U.S. by predicting the service life of rolling stock vehicles. Achieving and maintaining public transportation rolling stock in SGR is crucial to providing safe and reliable services to riders, particularly for transit agencies utilizing federal grants that mandate asset maintenance at a full level of performance. In this context, an intelligent predictive model is proposed to analyze the transportation rolling stock, determine their backlog and current condition, predict their replacement or rehabilitation needs, and estimate the funding required for future replacements, ensuring SGR. The model utilizes historical data from retired revenue vehicles in the National Transit Database and employs machine learning techniques, specifically random forest regression and gradient boosting regression, to develop the predictive tool. By addressing the backlog of vehicles beyond their service lives and estimating replacement costs, the model provides valuable decision support for effective transit asset management. Transit agencies in small urban and rural transit systems, lacking analytical tools for service life prediction, can greatly benefit from this simple yet powerful predictive model. The approach offers a practical resource to address SGR needs, optimize investment prioritization, and enhance operational efficiency in public transit systems.

Consolidating passenger and freight transportation in an urban–rural transit system

Buses are the most critical part of urban–rural transit systems. However, bus transit services in urban–rural areas face a trade-off between the need for better services and the low profitability resulting from low travel demand. In this study, we show that we can improve the utilization and profitability of urban–rural buses by merging freight transportation with passenger transportation. We developed a mixed-integer program to model and analyze the coordination between freight and passenger transportation in an urban–rural transit system. We then conducted a case study to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The numerical results indicate that the consolidation of passenger and freight transportation significantly reduces the operation cost of logistics companies and improves the profit of bus companies. We finally discuss the consolidation’s positive impacts on logistics companies, bus service providers, and society.

Not In Service

Transit services provide multiple economic, educational, health, environmental, and social benefits. Despite these benefits, rural communities face barriers in establishing and maintaining transit services. Understanding these barriers is a critical step for planners and decision makers to assist in developing solutions. This paper presents the results of a content analysis of rural transit and mobility literature designed to create a typology of the barriers rural communities face in establishing and maintaining transit systems. Seven categories of barriers facing rural transit systems were identified: (1) demographic factors and ridership; (2) socio-cultural aspects of transit; (3) the natural and built environment; (4) local costs of operation and sources of revenue; (5) local governance and jurisdiction; (6) local economic structure; and (7) external funding programs. However, while this typology can inform the planning of rural transit systems, the literature review also revealed significant gaps in our understanding, particularly surrounding the range of rural places in Canada.

The Concept of a Regional Maintenance Center

Key contributors to address maintenance concerns for rural transit systems are an aging fleet, poor maintenance practices, and a lack of technical expertise. This lack of local maintenance expertise is especially severe in rural areas. This paper examines the general requirements and maintenance service approach for a Regional Maintenance Center model in rural transportation systems. Among other findings of this study, it was determined that Regional Maintenance Centers, with a training center for mechanics and drivers, could improve vehicle reliability, increase vehicle longevity, and improve service to transit clientele. Also determined was that a generalized “one-size-fits-all” regional maintenance program could actually be counter-productive. Regional Maintenance Centers must be designed and located so potential use by rural transit service providers is maximized in order to provide superior serviceability and quality customer service.

Fail-Safe Methods for Paratransit Safety

The purpose of this study was to illustrate that a systems approach to transit safety can be used to develop a methodology to fail-safe or mistake-proof paratransit operations. The fail-safe methodology illustrated in this article was implemented in a small rural transit system in the southeast U.S. Results demonstrated that safety problems often stem from an interaction of service errors and system components. Results also revealed that fail-safe methods that target specific user groups are more effective than more general methods.

An Analysis of Success Plans and Performance Measures for Rural Transit Systems in North Carolina

Performance measurement and funding allocation based on these measurements are becoming increasingly popular in public transportation. Understanding what is important to transit systems is critical to properly assess them on their operational and administrative performance. The research goals were to determine how rural transit systems in North Carolina define success, what performance metrics the systems select for themselves, and why they selected those metrics. Each transit system was required by the North Carolina Department of Transportation to create a Success Plan for themselves that consisted of a mission statement, vision statement, values, and a scorecard that contained performance metrics. The analysis of these Success Plans shows that rural transit systems broadly define their values based on customer service, safety, and reliability. However, aside from safety, the specific metrics that the systems use for evaluating their performance are not well connected to these values. This lack of internal consistency within the Success Plans means that rural transit systems are not selecting performance metrics that complement their stated goals. This lack of internal consistency could have many causes and interviews were conducted with public transit administrators in North Carolina to try and understand the causes. From these interviews, it was determined that the lack of internal consistency in the plans could be partially attributed to the following: (1) system administrators were not aware of the importance of internally consistent plans; (2) system administrators had difficulty creating metrics; and (3) system administrators included metrics that they felt the state wanted to see.

Empirical insights on improving bus reliability at a rural transit system

Using a comprehensive data set, we investigate the impact of drivers, vehicles, trips, months, and days of the work week on deviation of actual run time from scheduled run time. Our results provide insights into what makes a bus service more reliable by analyzing the year-long data set from Butler Transit Authority, Pennsylvania, which is a rural system. The multiple regression methodology we employ reduces omitted variables bias so that each included explanatory variable’s coefficient estimate is relatively free from bias compared to more simplistic econometric methods such as correlation or bivariate regression. We find that problem drivers, lunch hour and afternoon peak times, November, and Fridays, are the variables that reduce bus reliability the most. Our study speaks to the critical need for information-intensive design and delivery of reliable bus service. Analyses of such databases help the public, in general, and the transit authorities, in particular, in providing efficient and effective bus service systems.

Empirical Insights on Improving Bus Reliability at a Rural Transit System

We aim to provide insights into what makes bus service more reliable by analyzing a detailed data set from Butler, Pennsylvania. We employ multiple regression methodology to reduce omitted variables bias. Our dependent variable is run time deviation from schedule and our explanatory variables are drivers, vehicles, trips, months, and days of the work week. We find that problem drivers, lunch hour and afternoon peak times, November, and Fridays, are the variables that reduce bus reliability the most. Our study speaks to the critical need for information-intensive design and delivery of reliable bus service. Analyses of such databases help the public, in general, and the transit authorities, in particular, in providing efficient and effective bus service systems.

Identifying automatic vehicle location (AVL) data completeness issues in a rural transit authority system

We analyzed AVL stop level data from a rural transit system to identify data completeness and systematic data capture failures. Systematic data loss could compromise the validity of further analyses of the data, such as schedule adherence or run time performance. We audited the data to identify missing values and possible data recording errors. The frequency of missing values was analyzed as a function of trip start time, stop number, day of the week, and last reported seconds late. We also perform an outlier and extreme value analysis as a function of missing records per trip. We conclude that there are systematic data capture errors in the system that needs to be addressed before further studies, such as run time analysis can be performed. Given the widespread adoption of an AVL system by rural transit system, it is recommended that detail data completeness analysis becomes routine before using the data generated to perform other studies.

Survey Results for Rural Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) VelociRFTA and Future Human Factor Considerations

With the uncertainty of light rail for public transportation in the USA, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) is a growing trend. The Roaring Fork Transportation Authority (RFTA) has been in operation since 1983, and functions as a Regional Transportation Authority. RFTA is the second largest public transit system in Colorado, after Denver Rapid Transit Delivery (RTD). RFTA is also the largest rural public transit system the United States of America (USA) and BRT VelociRFTA is the first Rural Bus Rapid Transit system in the USA. Results are positive for rider satisfaction and bus and bus station safety and comfort from a recent customer survey of RFTA’s VelociRFTA Bus Rapid Transit Program service and amenities. Ridership is up 22% for RFTA overall from 2013 with the introduction of the VelociRFTA BRT in the fall of 2013. Survey results will assist in training, productivity, well-being and sustainability for the existing and future RFTA programs. HFE recommendations for an updated dispatch control room are scheduled for fall of 2014.

Integrated Operation of Trunk Routes and Branches of Rural Transit

This paper develops the integrated operation of rural transit routes in China based on the challenges rural transit systems face from the limitations of separate operation. Firstly the characteristics of routes spatial layout and passenger flow are analyzed as the basis for operation design. Secondly, integrated operation and implement conditions are discussed. The trunk routes operate similar to urban transit route, and the minibus and flexible service are suitable for branch routes. Because of low passenger flow, the branch routes should be interlined with the adjacent trunk route. In addition, multi trunk routes and branch routes of adjacent towns could be allied to obtain better optimization and maximize the utilization of vehicle capacity. Furthermore, the practical application of Pukou district is illustrated to show the advantages of integrated operation. The findings of this paper are therefore potentially helpful to rural transit operators and researchers in China and other developing countries.

The Effects of Gasoline Prices on Bus Ridership for Different Types of Transit Systems

This study estimates the effects of gas prices on bus ridership for different types of transit systems. Because the price of gas can have a delayed effect on the demand for transit, a dynamic polynomial distributed lag model is utilized which measures short- and longer-run effects. The model is first applied to aggregate data for cities of different sizes and then to three specific small urban and rural transit systems in the Upper Great Plains. The results show that bus ridership is fairly inelastic with respect to gasoline price. Most of the estimated elasticities are in the range of 0.08 to 0.22, with two estimates being as high as 0.5.

Opportunities and Challenges for Rural Transit

Rural areas present special challenges for meeting the transportation needs of individuals, especially people without cars. Recognizing this, the Job Access and Reverse Commute (JARC) program was established in 1998 to assist states and localities develop transportation services to connect welfare recipients and other low-income residents to jobs and other support programs. This study documents case studies of eight rural areas receiving JARC funding in 1999. The report highlights specific program elements, including the implementation process, transportation services provided, and the solutions developed to deal with the challenges of distance and low population densities that rural transit systems frequently face.

Rural Transit Systems Benefits in Tennessee: Methodology and an Empirical Study

This paper describes the application of a detailed benefits assessment framework and sensitivity analysis of the operation of rural public transit services in the state of Tennessee. The paper describes the major components of this benefits framework and its application to the demand-responsive services operated within the state during the 1998/99 fiscal year. An empirical analysis yields a benefit/cost ratio greater than 1.0, with benefits dominated by accessibility gains to current transit patrons through the provision of mobility-enhancing vanpool services. Without these services, the costs of providing an equivalent level of access to health care, job training, and other important household activities would be much higher. Improved and expanded transit rider-based data collection efforts are recommended.

Part 2: Rural Public and Intercity Bus: Moving Rural Residents to Work

Rural areas present special challenges for meeting the transportation needs of individuals, especially people without cars. Congress established the Job Access and Reverse Commute (JARC) program in 1998 to assist states and localities in developing transportation services to connect welfare recipients and other low-income residents to jobs and other support programs. There are key results of a study examining eight rural areas receiving JARC funding in Fiscal Year 1999. Specific program elements include the implementation process, transportation services provided, and solutions developed to deal with the challenges of distance and low population densities that rural transit systems frequently face.

Moving Rural Residents to Work

Rural areas present special challenges for meeting the transportation needs of individuals, especially people without cars. Congress established the Job Access and Reverse Commute (JARC) program in 1998 to assist states and localities in developing transportation services to connect welfare recipients and other low-income residents to jobs and other support programs. There are key results of a study examining eight rural areas receiving JARC funding in Fiscal Year 1999. Specific program elements include the implementation process, transportation services provided, and solutions developed to deal with the challenges of distance and low population densities that rural transit systems frequently face.

Recruitment, Selection, and Retention of Personnel at North Carolina Community Transportation Systems: Findings and Recommendations from a Study

The hiring and the retention of personnel have been a long-standing issue in the public transportation industry. This involves finding and recruiting potential employees, selecting and hiring the most qualified candidates, training and developing employees, monitoring performance and retaining employees, and reducing excessive turnover and absenteeism. While human resources topics have typically been investigated at urban transit systems operating fixed-route services, hiring and retention have not been studied extensively at smaller rural transit systems operating demand-responsive transit services. This research focused on such rural systems and on the various factors that most impact on the issue at nine North Carolina community transportation systems. This effort included various human resources policies and practices such as recruiting, selecting, compensating, training, evaluating, and motivating. Practices at the nine case study systems and recommendations to improve policies and procedures are described.

Client Referral, Ridership, and Financial Tracking [CRRAFT] Transit Management System: CRRAFTing a Bridge to Coordinated Interagency Transportation

From the 1990s on, a growing number of federal and state human service programs have identified transportation as an allowable, often vital, support service for clients. State human services agencies in New Mexico are improving clients’ transportation options either by funding the expansion of local transit operators’ service areas and hours, or the starting up of new transit systems. Agencies providing this new transportation funding require specific reports based on the human service delivery model. Because services are client-based, the reports include the number of unique clients served, number of trips provided to each client, trip purposes, and costs. For New Mexico rural transit systems that operate under FTA Section 5311 guidelines, services and reports are trip based. To bridge the gap between human service agency and rural transit system cultures, the Alliance for Transportation Research Institute of the University of New Mexico developed a web-based software program, the Client Referral, Ridership, and Financial Tracking (CRRAFT) Transit Management System. The software integrates human service client transportation referral and service delivery with daily rural public transit operations, provides passengers with increased seamlessness in transportation service, and generates financial and client tracking reports that meet each funding agency’s criteria, including those required by FTA. The CRRAFT lessens the burden on small transit systems that have limited administrative staff of two to three people. The software also provides funding agencies with tools to facilitate planning and to maintain administrative and fiscal accountability.

Economic Impact of Rural Transit Services

Great economic benefits are attributed to transit systems serving large urban areas, such as providing mobility, reducing costs associated with automobile use (congestion and air pollution), encouraging greater economic growth in areas served, and increasing the nation’s overall economic productivity. Like the larger urban public transit systems, rural public transit systems have real benefits for the communities they serve. Unlike those of their larger counterparts, the contributions that rural transit systems have made to the economic health and well-being of the communities they serve have gone largely unrecognized. A new report measures for the first time the economic benefits of rural transit operations. The report develops benefit estimates from 22 case studies of rural transit systems and from national transportation and economic data. Large economic benefits were found, demonstrating that public transportation is a good investment for rural communities.