Rural Forest Research Articles

Trace element leaf accumulation in native trees from the remaining Semideciduous Atlantic Forest in Brazil

Remnants of Semideciduous Atlantic Forest surrounded by numerous industries, intense road traffic and agricultural lands in Southeast Brazil have been affected by trace elements. We implemented a passive biomonitoring with the three most abundant native tree species (Astronium graveolens, Croton floribundus and Piptadenia gonoacantha) to answer these questions: 1) which species has the greatest potential to accumulate trace elements?; 2) does the leaf accumulation level of trace elements vary between the edge and interior of the forest remnants, between dry and wet periods or due to the distance from the industrial area?; 3) which species, among the most abundant in the forest remnants, would better indicate the spatial variations in trace elements pollution and which elements would be the most relevant for such spatial discrimination? Leaf samples were collected during the dry and wet seasons, at the edge and interior of four forest remnants. Trace elements were determined using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP MS). Few edge effects were evidenced in the leaf concentrations in all species. Higher concentrations of most trace elements were measured during dry season. Although C. floribundus showed the most accumulating capacity, A. graveolens was the most appropriate species to discriminate spatial variations. The forest closer to the industrial area was distinguished from the others by Mn and Ni from oil burning, but the metal pollution from the industrial area did not interfere on the leaf concentrations in A. graveolens sampled in the urban and rural forests.

How farmers feel about trees: Perceptions of ecosystem services and disservices associated with rural forests in southwestern France

Rural forests, including the wooded areas primarily managed by farmers (e.g. farm forests, hedgerows, isolated trees), are critical for the sustainability of agricultural landscapes. Yet with agricultural industrialization, rural forests have been in decline in many regions across Europe. To reverse this trend and promote the sustainable use of farmland, ‘greening’ measures have been introduced by the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in recent years. However, their effectiveness depends on local farmers’ values and reaction to these measures. In this study, we investigated the socio-cultural value accorded to rural forests in southwestern France by interviewing 19 farmers. The positive and negative contributions cited were categorized as ecosystem services/disservices and analyzed using qualitative and quantitative methods. The results indicate that farmers in this region have mixed views, as they cited 32 positive and 25 negative contributions (material and non-material) of rural forests. They felt trees provide services (e.g. erosion control, windbreak) and disservices to agriculture (e.g. decline in yield, damage to tractors and infrastructures). Depending on their farming practices, farmers had contrasting opinions on how to reconcile rural forests and agriculture. Our results suggest that CAP greening measures need to better target rural forest conservation and further adapt to local contexts.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in urban Greenland soils of Nanjing, China: concentration, distribution, sources and potential risks.

In order to better study the influence of land use on the concentration and distribution of organic contaminants in urban areas, the concentrations of 16 principal polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were determined on soil samples collected at three depths (0~10cm, 10~20cm and 20~30cm) from urban greenland areas of 6functional zones: residential zone (RZ), business zone (BZ), industrial zone (IZ), cultural and educational zone (CZ), urban park (UP) and urban rural forest (URF) of Nanjing, China. Results showed that the average concentration of ∑PAHs in the urban greenland of Nanjing (499.47ng/g) was comparable to the value reported for other cities under similar conditions. Acenaphthene was the dominant compound (46.2% of the ∑PAHs), and low molecular weight PAHs (LPAHs) represented the largest share of ∑PAHs. Concentrations of ∑PAHs in 6 function zones were different, with the highest value in IZ (954.33ng/g) and lowest value in URF (147.81ng/g). The soil showed the highest ∑PAHs contamination in the layer 10~20cm in all zones (on average 547.01ng/g). ∑PAHs of IZ showed the highest values in all soil layers. Isomer ratio and factor analysis were used to determine the source of PAHs in soil. Petroleum combustion (PC), coal and biomass combustion (CBC), mixed (M) and petroleum (P) sources were finally identified as the four main sources of PAHs in Nanjing urban greenland soil, accounting for 50.2%, 14.9%, 8.4% and 6.6%, respectively. Bap toxic equivalent (TEQBap) was used to analyze the ecological risk. TEQBap was 20.59ng/g in total zones (TZ), below the threshold for multipurpose soil of Dutch legislation (32.96ng/g), but 69% of samples exceeded this threshold. TEQBap of different functional zones is ordered as: IZ (43.62ng/g)>RZ (23.89ng/g) > BZ (20.62ng/g) > CZ (19. 93ng/g) > UP (12.97ng/g) > URF (2.01ng/g). In the industrial area, more than 97% of TEQBap depended on seven carcinogenic PAHs (∑PAH7c), which indicated that IZ had high ecological risk. Lifetime risk of cancer (ILCR) model was used to assess the health risk of ∑PAHs. ILCRs ranked as following: children > youth > adults, with soil oral intake determining the highest cancer risk, followed by skin contact and breath intake. ILCRs of children were in high cancer risk range, with values of 3.77 × 10-4 (for boy) and 3.87 × 10-4 (for girl), while ILCRs of youth and adults were in an acceptable range; ILCRs were highest in IZ, followed by RZ, BZ, CZ, UP and URF. The soil PAHs analysis in different function greenland zones of Nanjing showed that land use influenced the concentration and distribution of PAHs in soils. This difference should be taken into account in the urban greenland planning and management to reduce the risks for the environment and human health.

High value-added production from unutilized tree species “Nezumisashi” (Juniperus rigida) in rural forest with local wood biomass utilization as a background.

High value-added production from unutilized tree species “Nezumisashi” (Juniperus rigida) in rural forest with local wood biomass utilization as a background.

Introducing Beekeeping Within Microfinance Mechanisms to Combat Poverty Through the Agricultural Bank of Sudan (Case Study River Nile State)

This research deals with the subject of the introducing of beekeeping within microfinance mechanisms to combat poverty through the Agricultural Bank of Sudan. The research problem is the absence of beekeeping finance within the microfinance and poverty alleviation programs funded by the bank as a result of the lack of adequate information on the economic feasibility of the project in terms of profitability, the capital, payback period, the policy and qualified staff. To achieve the objectives of the research, the most important of which is introducing of beekeeping within the microfinance and poverty alleviation programs through the bank which covered different parts of Sudan and widespread in rural areas where poverty rate increases. The beekeeping in some areas of Sudan where forests covered large areas (rich flora) is considered the most successful projects, that lead to an increase in household income and thus reduce the poverty. Researcher relied on primary data collected from field survey as well as personal interviews with the Agricultural Bank of Sudan Micro-finance Initiative manager. Of the most prominent findings of the research that beekeeping in Sudan is most promising industry of high economic feasibility with an average production of colony per year of 19.3 Kg and the rate of return on investment of 46.2%, which confirms the feasibility of the project and its suitability for microfinance and poverty alleviation programs, the importance of the project is increasing in remote and rural areas and forests where it is difficult to construct any other projects, in addition to beekeeping lead to increased income to the farmers by increasing the productivity of the crops (River Nile State Initiative). The arguments in the research are intended to provide farmers and poverty reduction stakeholders in Sudan (including policy- makers) with the necessary information and motivation to consider beekeeping as viable commercial and protective activity that should always be considered and integrated in microfinance and poverty reduction programmes through the Agricultural Bank of Sudan. The researcher stated important recommendations. To encourage the banks and other financial institutes to engage in this type of investment, to create associations of local producers to develop productions and marketing process locally and abroad, to encourage the training and scientific research and to encourage beekeeping in order to be one of the agricultural inputs.

Motivation and Implementation in Participatory Forest Management; A Comparative Study of Urban and Rural Forests in Kenya

Motivation and Implementation in Participatory Forest Management; A Comparative Study of Urban and Rural Forests in Kenya

Impact of urban green spaces, native tree species and seasons on soil pH in Kaunas, Lithuania

Tree growth is sensitive to soil pH in urban areas and is often higher than in rural forest. However, there are knowledge gaps on how soil pH and alkalization are affected by urban environments and seasonal climate as well as the cascading effects on tree species. In order to fulfill these gaps, we analyzed the soil pHCaCl of four common native deciduous tree species: Acer platanoides, Tilia cordata, Quercus robur and Betula pendula in five different types of urban green spaces in Kaunas city municipality (Lithuania). The results show that soil pH in urban environments with Betula pendula sites were most alkaline (pH 7.04), whereas the soil pH of urban environments with Acer platanoides (pH 6.7) and Tilia cordata (pH 6.8) were most acidic. The soil pH of street tree greeneries was alkaline, while soils of peri-urban forests and large urban parks were acidic. Differently to natural conditions in peri urban forests the soil pH level drop down by 0.5 is observed during spring-autumn period in broad street greeneries with largest urban pressure. The variation in soil pH of the different types of green space and tree species shows that city planner should consider the unique conditions of all green space to maximize their potential for human well-being.

Rural Dynamics and Forest Conservation in Northern Tunisia

This paper will first examine the causes of the ongoing forest crisis that was inherited from the French protectorate and that is associated with the agricultural and forest policies followed by the Tunisian government. Strict forest regulations have failed to contain increased population pressure on forest lands. This is mainly due to the crisis of traditional agriculture that has been undermined by large and modern production-driven exploitation of large basins, which is promoted by the agricultural policies of the state and supported by a powerful urban framework. Then, this article will show how, in recent decades, the multiplicity of original rural dynamics tends to give new clear-cut characteristics to the rural populations and their territories in the mountain forests. In particular, it focuses on issues like the reshaping of rural communities, diversification of peasants’ income generation activities, and the dynamism of certain peasant economy. These sufficiently advanced changes are lightening the pressure of the population on the forest lands, and they especially modify Man-vegetation relationships, towards the reconciliation between the peasants and the forests. They therefore call for a re-thinking of forest policies to clearly integrate resident peasants into forest management and development.

Ten-year determination of atmospheric phosphorus deposition at three forested sites in Japan

Atmospheric phosphorus (P) deposition is an important component for understanding the dynamics of natural and semi-natural ecosystems. However, information about atmospheric P deposition is limited. Here, we show the long-term atmospheric P deposition at three forested sites, a suburban forest (S), rural forest (R1), and northern rural forest (R2) in Japan for 10 years from 2009 to 2018. Approximately 200 samples of bulk precipitation at each site were collected during the study period and total P (TP) was analyzed in addition to major ions. Annual TP deposition at sites S, R1, and R2 was 0.28 ± 0.06, 0.21 ± 0.05, and 0.12 ± 0.04 kg P ha−1 yr−1, respectively, and were large enough to affect P budgets in a forested watershed. Principal component analyses indicated that biogenic sources are the primary contributor to atmospheric P at rural forest sites, whereas anthropogenic sources may have a larger effect on atmospheric P at suburban forest site. Annual TP deposition at site S significantly decreased over the past decade. The significant relationship between annual TP deposition and annual nitrogen deposition at site S indicates that the decrease in TP deposition could be caused by a decrease in anthropogenic emissions.

Current and future biomass carbon uptake in Boston's urban forest

Ecosystem services provided by urban forests are increasingly included in municipal-level responses to climate change. However, the ecosystem functions that generate these services, such as biomass carbon (C) uptake, can differ substantially from nearby rural forest. In particular, the scaled effect of canopy spatial configuration on tree growth in cities is uncertain, as is the scope for medium-term policy intervention. This study integrates high spatial resolution data on tree canopy and biomass in the city of Boston, Massachusetts, with local measurements of tree growth rates to estimate the magnitude and distribution of annual biomass C uptake. We further project C uptake, biomass, and canopy cover change to 2040 under alternative policy scenarios affecting the planting and preservation of urban trees. Our analysis shows that 85% of tree canopy area was within 10 m of an edge, indicating essentially open growing conditions. Using growth models accounting for canopy edge effects and growth context, Boston's current biomass C uptake may be approximately double (median 10.9 GgC yr−1, 0.5 MgC ha−1 yr−1) the estimates based on rural forest growth, much of it occurring in high-density residential areas. Total annual C uptake to long-term biomass storage was equivalent to <1% of estimated annual fossil CO2 emissions for the city. In built-up areas, reducing mortality in larger trees resulted in the highest predicted increase in canopy cover (+25%) and biomass C stocks (236 GgC) by 2040, while planting trees in available road margins resulted in the greatest predicted annual C uptake (7.1 GgC yr−1). This study highlights the importance of accounting for the altered ecosystem structure and function in urban areas in evaluating ecosystem services. Effective municipal climate responses should consider the substantial fraction of total services performed by trees in developed areas, which may produce strong but localized atmospheric C sinks.

Detection and characterization of birch pollen in the atmosphere using a multiwavelength Raman polarization lidar and Hirst-type pollen sampler in Finland

Abstract. We present the results of birch pollen characterization using lidar and in situ measurements based on a 11 d pollination period from 5 to 15 May 2016 at the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET) station in Vehmasmäki (Kuopio; 62∘44′ N, 27∘33′ E), Finland. The ground-based multiwavelength Raman polarization lidar PollyXT performed continuous measurements at this rural forest site and has been combined with a Hirst-type volumetric air sampler, which measured the pollen type and concentration at roof level (4 m). The period was separated into two parts due to different atmospheric conditions and detected pollen types. During the first period, high concentrations of birch pollen were measured with a maximum 2 h average pollen concentration of 3700 grains m−3. Other pollen types represented less than 3 % of the total pollen count. In observed pollen layers, the mean particle depolarization ratio at 532 nm was 10±6 % during the intense birch pollination period. Mean lidar ratios were found to be 45±7 and 55±16 sr at 355 and 532 nm, respectively. During the second period, birch pollen was still dominant, but a significant contribution of spruce pollen was observed as well. Spruce pollen grains are highly nonspherical, leading to a larger mean depolarization ratio of 26±7 % for the birch–spruce pollen mixture. Furthermore, higher lidar ratios were observed during this period with mean values of 60±3 and 62±10 sr at 355 and 532 nm, respectively. The presented study shows the potential of the particle depolarization ratio to track pollen grains in the atmosphere.

Mortality in Three-Toed Box Turtles (Terrapene mexicana triunguis) at Two Sites in Missouri.

Once ubiquitous, North American box turtles are experiencing reductions in abundance and range, but the magnitude of these losses is largely unknown. In Missouri, native box turtles (Terrapene mexicana triunguis and Terrapene ornata ornata) are declining across the state due to anthropogenic disturbances such as urbanization, habitat fragmentation, and vehicle collisions. Through radio-tracking over a period of 7 years, we documented the survival of adult three-toed box turtles at two sites in Missouri: Forest Park (urban park) and Tyson Research Center (TRC) (a protected rural forest). Estimated annual survival of adult turtles in Forest Park was 79% (95% CI: 0.68–0.87) while at TRC annual survival was 93% (95% CI: 0.83–0.97). The odds of annual survival for a turtle at TRC were 3.5 times that of a turtle living in Forest Park. “Winter kill,” which refers to box turtles found dead on the surface during brumation or within 2 weeks of emergence, was the most frequently documented category of mortality in Forest Park. At TRC, winter kill was not documented; however, the reasons for most deaths were unknown. These data raise questions about the potential of large urban parks as refuges for box turtles, which we may answer by future studies that compare box turtles living in multiple urban and rural settings. Our preliminary data suggest that even the largest urban parks may not be able to sustain populations of box turtles which has severe implications as urbanization continues to degrade and eliminate box turtle habitat throughout their range.

Changes in vegetation structure and composition of urban and rural forest patches in Baltimore from 1998 to 2015

Urban forests often occur as highly fragmented patches with many non-native plant species, altered disturbance regimes, environmental pollutants, and uncertain trajectories of plant community composition. In 1998, the Baltimore Ecosystem Study, a U.S. National Science Foundation-funded Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) program, established eight forested plots to investigate long-term impacts of urbanization on natural ecosystems. All plots were located in the Baltimore metropolitan area with four in urban forest patches and four in a rural forest. In 1998, these forest patches had closed canopies with well-developed tree, shrub and vine layers, and extensive herbaceous cover. The 1998 alpha diversity (species richness) was higher in urban plots than in rural plots, whereas both plot types had similar forest structure and a relatively small number of non-native species. In 2015, we resampled these plots to investigate changes in plant structure, composition, and diversity based on the abundance, cover, and size of plant species. Trees and vines experienced minimal structural changes in all the plots. Sapling, shrub, and herbaceous abundances all declined over time in the rural plots. In the urban plots, however, only the sapling and herbaceous layers experienced declines. Despite having fewer structural changes, urban plots showed a greater shift in species composition than did rural plots. As in 1998, alpha diversity was lower in the rural plots. Beta diversity (community dissimilarity) decreased among rural plots but remained nearly unchanged in the urban plots, whereas beta turnover (species turnover) was much higher in the urban plots. These data suggest that the urban plots may have divergent compositional trajectories from the rural plots, which may help urban forests retain structural similarities through functional redundancy.

Over a 10-year record of aerosol optical properties at SMEAR II

Abstract. Aerosol optical properties (AOPs) describe the ability of aerosols to scatter and absorb radiation at different wavelengths. Since aerosol particles interact with the sun's radiation, they impact the climate. Our study focuses on the long-term trends and seasonal variations of different AOPs measured at a rural boreal forest site in northern Europe. To explain the observed variations in the AOPs, we also analyzed changes in the aerosol size distribution. AOPs of particles smaller than 10 µm (PM10) and 1 µm (PM1) have been measured at SMEAR II, in southern Finland, since 2006 and 2010, respectively. For PM10 particles, the median values of the scattering and absorption coefficients, single-scattering albedo, and backscatter fraction at λ=550 nm were 9.8 Mm−1, 1.3 Mm−1, 0.88, and 0.14. The median values of scattering and absorption Ångström exponents at the wavelength ranges 450–700 and 370–950 nm were 1.88 and 0.99, respectively. We found statistically significant trends for the PM10 scattering and absorption coefficients, single-scattering albedo, and backscatter fraction, and the slopes of these trends were −0.32 Mm−1, −0.086 Mm−1, 2.2×10-3, and 1.3×10-3 per year. The tendency for the extensive AOPs to decrease correlated well with the decrease in aerosol number and volume concentrations. The tendency for the backscattering fraction and single-scattering albedo to increase indicates that the aerosol size distribution consists of fewer larger particles and that aerosols absorb less light than at the beginning of the measurements. The trends of the single-scattering albedo and backscattering fraction influenced the aerosol radiative forcing efficiency, indicating that the aerosol particles are scattering the radiation more effectively back into space.

Urban forest fragments as unexpected sanctuaries for the rare endemic ghost butterfly from the Atlantic forest.

Anthropogenic land expansion, particularly urbanization, is pervasive, dramatically modifies the environment and is a major threat to wildlife with its associated environmental stressors. Urban remnant vegetation can help mitigate these impacts and could be vital for species unable to survive in harsh urban environments. Although resembling nonurban habitats, urban vegetation remnants are subject to additional environmental stresses. Here, we evaluate the occurrence and density of the endemic ghost butterfly (Morpho epistrophus nikolajewna) that was once common, in the highly fragmented Atlantic forest of NE Brazil. We tested whether this butterfly would be found at lower densities in urban forest fragments of contrasting sizes as opposed to rural ones, given the number of environmental stressors found in urban areas. We surveyed 14 forest fragments (range 2.8 to over 3,000 ha) of semideciduous Atlantic forest in rural and urban locations using transect based distance sampling. The ghost butterflies showed strong seasonality; flying only from April to June. They were only identified in an urban fragment (515 ha), with an estimate of 720 individuals and a density 1.4 ind/ha. All forest fragments had experienced some level of logging in the past, which might have had an effect in the butterfly population. Nevertheless, rural forest fragments were subject to increased particulate matter concentrations, associated to biomass burning that we suggest might have had a more influential role driving the collapse of rural populations. Our findings show the importance of urban forest remnants to sustain population of this endangered species.

Seasonal dynamics of common ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) along an urbanisation gradient near Sorø, Zealand, Denmark

The seasonal activity of six carabid species (Nebria brevicollis, Carabus nemoralis, C. hortensis, C. coriaceus, Pterostichus melanarius and Abax parallelepipedus) was studied along an urbanisation gradient (rural forest – suburban forest – forest fragments in urban park) in Sorø, Denmark, during April–October 2004 and 2005.Two groups were identified: 1) Species with constant seasonality, in which seasonal activity profiles did not differ along the gradient (C. hortensis, C. coriaceus, and A. parallelepipedus); 2) Species with flexible seasonality,with remarkable differences along the gradient and between the years (C. nemoralis, N. brevicollis and P. melanarius). In four out of six studied species, 2005 was less favourable than 2004. Spring activity in the urban habitat started earlier than in the suburban or forested ones. A better understanding of urban green infrastructures in biodiversity assessments may need the study of seasonality in order to distinguish whether the bioindicator’s responses are to habitat quality or stochastic seasonal events.

Is “Pishing” Tantamount to Mobbing? Black-Capped Chickadees Respond Similarly to Human Pishing and Conspecific Mobbing Calls in Rural and Suburban Forests

Poecile atricapillus (Black-capped Chickadee) mobbing calls elicit mobbing events in which birds drive away a predator. Human birders simulate these calls by “pishing” (vocalizing mobbing calls) to coerce birds into view. We investigated whether pishing is as salient as natural mobbing calls, and whether birds respond differently in suburban forest fragments than in intact forests. Using experimental playbacks, we broadcast mobbing calls and pishing calls in suburban forest patches and intact forests and measured Chickadee response. We found that Chickadees had significantly stronger responses to mobbing calls than to alarm calls used as a positive control, but pishing call response was not significantly different than mobbing or control alarm call responses. We also saw no difference in number of Chickadees responding between suburban fragments and intact forests, but we did see a difference in areas with denser vegetation. These findings show that pishing may be less urgent than Chickadee mobbing calls but may still contribute to stress and energetic demands on birds.

Changes in plant functional traits and their relationships with environmental factors along an urban-rural gradient in Guangzhou, China

Abstract Rapid urbanization in southern China has had significant impacts on the monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forests and caused a series of environmental issues. How plants, in particular plant functional traits, respond to urbanization is hence of importance for their acclimation to changing environments. In this study, we investigated the changes of plant functional traits associated with plant competition and nutrient utilization strategies and their relationships with environmental factors along an urban-rural gradient in Guangzhou, China. Results showed that plant species in the urban forests had larger specific leaf area (SLA), higher leaf nitrogen (LN) content, and lower leaf carbon/nitrogen ratio (C:N) than those in the suburban and rural forests. Principal component analysis revealed that species in the urban, suburban, and rural forests were significantly separated by the first principal component, which was strongly related to SLA and leaf nutrient traits. Plant functional traits were also found closely related to soil pH, nitrogen, and copper content. Species with higher SLA and higher LN content were better adapted to the urbanization environment. Our findings indicate that the process of urbanization may change the composition of lower subtropical monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forests by favoring acquisitive-strategy species, and further influence ecosystem services.

European Union’s Last Intact Forest Landscapes are at A Value Chain Crossroad between Multiple Use and Intensified Wood Production

Research Highlights: The European Union’s last large intact forest landscapes along the Scandinavian Mountain range in Sweden offer unique opportunities for conservation of biodiversity, ecological integrity and resilience. However, these forests are at a crossroad between intensified wood production aimed at bio-economy, and rural development based on multi-functional forest landscapes for future-oriented forest value chains. Background and Objectives: We (1) estimate the area of near-natural forests potentially remaining for forest harvesting and wood production, or as green infrastructure for biodiversity conservation and human well-being in rural areas, (2) review how forest and conservation policies have so far succeeded to reduce the loss of mountain forests, and (3) discuss what economic, socio-cultural and ecological values that are at stake, as well as different governance and management solutions. Materials and Methods: First, we estimated the remaining amount of intact mountain forests using (1) the Swedish National Forest Inventory, (2) protected area statistics, (3) forest harvest permit applications and actually harvested forests, (4) remote sensing wall-to-wall data on forests not subject to clear-felling since the mid-1950s, (5) mapping of productive and non-productive forestland, and (6) estimates of mean annual final felling rate. Second, we review policy documents related to the emergence of land use regulation in north Sweden, including the mountain forest border, and illustrate this with an actual case that has had significant policy implementation importance. Results: There is a clear difference between the proportions of formally protected productive forestland above the mountain forest border (52.5%) and north Sweden in general (6.3%). A total of 300,000 ha of previously not clear-felled mountain forest outside protected areas remain, which can support novel value chains that are not achievable elsewhere. Conclusions: The mountain forests in Sweden provide unique conservation values in the European Union. Since the beginning of the 1990s, policy regulations have been successful in limiting forest harvesting. Currently, however, mountain forests are a battle ground regarding intensification of forest use, including logging of forests that have never been subject to clear-felling systems vs. nature conservation and wilderness as a base for rural development. The ability of mountain municipalities to encourage sustainable rural forest landscapes must be strengthened.

Spatio-temporal and cumulative effects of land use-land cover and climate change on two ecosystem services in the Colombian Andes

Climate change can have marked effects on ecosystem service (ES) provision in the Andes, particularly in peri-urban areas. In addition to global-change related processes, cumulative effects such as changing socio-political dynamics, environmental policies, and conflicts are also changing type and magnitude of land use–land cover (LULC) dynamics in the Colombian Andes. Studies in the region have investigated the effects of LULC change, deforestation and extreme climatic events on the hydrology of watersheds and carbon sequestration. Yet, less is known on how the cumulative effects of climate and LULC changes will drive water yield and carbon sequestration. To investigate these cumulative effects, we study two different watersheds near Bogota, Colombia and their ES for the period 2016–2046. We use IPCC-LULC scenarios, expert elicitation, hydro-meteorological data, and integrated modelling using temporal LULC change and ESs valuation models to parse out effects of LULC versus climate change on two representative ESs. Our results show forest and shrublands remain stable during the analysis period. However, urban conversion of agricultural pastures is substantial. We found that climate change scenarios had greater effect on water yield and supply than LULC scenarios in both watersheds. However, carbon sequestration was greater in rural forest and shrubland areas farther from Bogota. In contrast to current land use zoning being promoted by local elected officials, our findings indicate that land-use development and policies in near-urban basins need to minimize urbanization in agriculture and pasture LULCs, as these can have substantial effects on water yield. Similarly, land use polices in ex-urban areas need to conserve forested and shrubland areas to maximize their carbon offset potential. Collectively, our results highlight the need to incorporate climate change conditions in decision making and land use planning processes, in order to maintain the capacity of ecosystems, both urban and rural, to provide services to society.