Rupture Propagation Research Articles

Locked Frontal and Lateral Ramps on the Main Himalayan Thrust Beneath NW Himalaya Illuminated by Precisely Located Seismicity

AbstractThe Kashmir “seismic gap” in NW Himalaya is marked by hinterland‐to‐foreland reduction in GPS‐geodetic arc‐normal convergence‐velocity and increase in horizontal strain‐rate, associated with occurrence of moderate‐to‐small earthquakes. We analyze continuous waveforms from Jammu and Kashmir seismological network (2015–2017) to detect and preliminarily locate 1064 events, followed by probabilistic non‐linear relocation of 360 well‐located local earthquakes, with magnitudes 0.6–4.7 and hypocentral depths 0–60 km. Hypocenters shallower than 20 km lie on or above the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), clustered beneath the Kishtwar Higher‐Himalaya. Hinterlandward dipping seismicity‐clusters coincide with a MHT mid‐crustal frontal ramp, marking a 50 km wide locked‐to‐creep transition. The frictionally‐locked up‐dip MHT segment is 100 km wide, capable of hosting a 8.4 earthquake, if ruptured completely. Clustered seismicity SW of the Kishtwar Window and to its east illuminate MHT lateral‐ramps, which may limit the rupture width and/or modulate the rupture propagation. Entirely seismogenic underthrust Indian‐crust poses additional hazard from large earthquakes within it.

Dynamic Ruptures on Bending Fault: Insights from Numerical Simulations of Transient Stress Field

ABSTRACT We delve into the spontaneous rupture propagation on bending faults by numerical simulations based on the boundary integral equation method with unstructured meshes. To study the effect of fault geometry on dynamic rupture propagation, special attention is paid to the role of the dynamic stress field. The numerical results demonstrate that the bending angle is a key geometrical factor influencing the rupture propagation because it affects both the initial stress distribution and the dynamic stress field on the bending branch. The rupture propagation on the bending branch can be separated into two distinct stages: first, the propagation from the main branch to the bending branch, which largely depends on the dynamic stress field near the bend; and second, a subsequent propagation stage primarily influenced by the initial stress state on the bending branch, with the influence of the dynamic stress field decreasing rapidly with distance from the bend. Geometrical smoothing of the bend can be regarded as a modification of the bending angle, which may significantly alter the behavior of rupture propagation near the bend. In theory, if the bending angle ranges between −120° and 60°, there is a potential for rupture to propagate onto the bending branch through the bend.

Fault rupture propagation through stratified sand–clay deposits and engineered earth structures: a meshfree and critical-state modeling approach

Fault rupture propagation through stratified sand–clay deposits and engineered earth structures: a meshfree and critical-state modeling approach

Rupture process of the 2019 Mw 6.8 Davao Del Sur earthquake, Philippines from geodetic and seismic data

Because of its complex tectonic setting, the Philippines experiences vigorous seismic activity. On December 15, 2019, an Mw 6.8 earthquake struck Davao del Sur, the Philippines, severely damaging infrastructure and adversely affecting the population. In this study, we used Interferometry Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and teleseismic broadband data to explore the earthquake’s source parameters, rupture process, and tectonic characteristics through a Bayesian modeling approach and Coulomb stress analysis. An analysis of InSAR suggested that the mainshock occurred on an NW–SE oriented single plane within the Cotabato fault system, with the Makilala-Malungon fault being the causative fault. The Joint inversion revealed that the rupture initiated in the middle crust (depth: approximately 16.5 km), exhibiting a blind, left-lateral strike-slip fault rupture propagation with minimal reverse slip and no surface rupture. The slip was concentrated in a distinct asperity spanning a depth of 3–24 km, with the peak slip reaching approximately 1.8 m. The source time function of this event indicated a single pulse with a total source duration of approximately 17 s. The static stress drop value was low, which may be related to the brittle condition of the crust. Coulomb stress changes calculations suggested earthquake risk in the future.

Effects of Dip Angle on Rupture Propagation Along Branch Fault Systems

ABSTRACT An important consideration in assessing seismic hazards is determining what is likely to happen when an earthquake rupture encounters a geometric complexity such as a branch fault. Previous studies showed parameters such as branch angle, stress orientation, and stress heterogeneity as key factors in the self-determined rupture path on branch faults. However, most of these studies were conducted in 2D or 3D with perfectly vertical faults. Therefore, in this study, we investigate the effects of dipping angle on rupture propagation along a branch fault system. We construct 3D finite-element meshes where we vary the dip angles (nine geometries in total) of the main and secondary faults, the stressing angle (Ψ=20°, 40°, and 65°), and the hypocenter location with nucleation on both the main and secondary segments. We find that for Ψ=40°, a rupture on the main fault is most likely to propagate across the branch intersection when the secondary fault is dipping. In addition, for Ψ=65°, a rupture on the secondary fault is most likely to propagate to the main fault when the secondary fault is shallowly dipping. This is caused by a fast rupture speed on the secondary fault and the dynamic stress effect that develops with the interaction of the free surface and the dipping secondary fault. These results indicate that dip angle is an important parameter in the determination of rupture path on branch fault systems, with potentially significant impact for seismic hazard, and should be considered in future dynamic rupture modeling studies.

The Influence of Fault Geometrical Complexity on Surface Rupture Length

AbstractPropagating earthquakes must overcome geometrical complexity on fault networks to grow into large, surface rupturing events. We map step‐overs, bends, gaps, splays, and strands of length scales ∼100–500 m from the surface ruptures of 31 strike‐slip earthquakes, recording whether ruptures propagated past the feature. We find that step‐overs and bends can arrest rupture and develop a statistical model for passing probability as a function of geometry for each group. Step‐overs wider than 1.2 km, single bends larger than 32°, and double bends larger than 38° are breached by rupture half of the time. ∼20% of the ruptures terminate on straight segments. We examine how the distribution of geometrical complexity influences surface rupture length, inferring an exponential relationship between rupture length and event probability. Our findings support that geometrical complexity helps limit the size of large events and provide insights into the competition between energy supply and dissipation during rupture propagation.

Back‐Propagating Rupture: Nature, Excitation, and Implications

AbstractRecent observations show that certain rupture phase can propagate backward relative to the earlier one during a single earthquake event. Such back‐propagating rupture (BPR) was not well considered by the conventional earthquake source studies and remains a mystery to the seismological community. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of BPR, by combining theoretical considerations, numerical simulations, and observational evidences. First, we argue that BPR in terms of back‐propagating stress wave is an intrinsic feature during dynamic ruptures; however, its signature can be easily masked by the destructive interference behind the primary rupture front. Then, we propose an idea that perturbation to an otherwise smooth rupture process may make some phases of BPR observable. We test and verify this idea by numerically simulating rupture propagation under a variety of perturbations, including a sudden change of stress, bulk or interfacial property and fault geometry along rupture propagation path. We further cross‐validate the numerical results by available observations from laboratory and natural earthquakes, and confirm that rupture “reflection” at free surface, rupture coalescence and breakage of prominent asperity are very efficient for exciting observable BPR. Based on the simulated and observed results, we classify BPR into two general types: interface wave and high‐order re‐rupture, depending on the stress recovery and drop before and after the arrival of BPR, respectively. Our work clarifies the nature and excitation of BPR, and can help improve the understanding of earthquake physics, the inference of fault property distribution and evolution, and the assessment of earthquake hazard.

Source Geometry and Rupture Characteristics of the 20 February 2023 Mw 6.4 Hatay (Türkiye) Earthquake at Southwest Edge of the East Anatolian Fault

AbstractFollowing the catastrophic 6 February 2023 Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.6 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes in the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ; southeast Türkiye), numerous aftershocks occurred along the major branches of this left‐lateral shear zone. The spatio‐temporal distribution of the earthquakes implied the stress‐triggering effects of co‐seismic ruptures on closely connected fault segments over large distances. On the 20 February 2023 two earthquakes with Mw 6.4 and Mw 5.2 struck Hatay (Türkiye) located near the Samandağ‐Antakya segment of the EAFZ. To understand the rupture evolution of these earthquakes, we first re‐located the aftershock sequence that occurred over a 3‐month period in the Hatay‐Syria region. A normal faulting mechanism with a significant amount of left‐lateral strike‐slip component at a shallow focal depth of 12 km was estimated for the 2023 Mw 6.4 earthquake from the inversion of seismological data. Our slip models describe a relatively simple and unilateral rupture propagation along about 36 km‐long active segments of the EAFZ. The co‐seismic horizontal displacements inferred from the Global Navigation Satellite System data are compatible with the oblique slip kinematics. Furthermore, we suggest that this earthquake did not produce notable tsunami waves on the adjacent coasts since the rupture plane did not extend to the seafloor of the Eastern Mediterranean with substantial amount of vertical displacement. We reckon that a future large earthquake (Mw ≥ 7.0) in the Hatay‐Syria region where increased stress was transferred to the fault segments of the EAFZ and the Dead Sea Fault Zone (DSFZ) after the 2023 earthquakes will be a probable source of tsunami at the coastal plains of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea region.

Long-period ground motion simulation and pulse probability distribution characteristics of the Kumamoto MW 7.1 earthquake in Japan

The 2016 Kumamoto MW 7.1 earthquake in Japan caused severe structural damage. It produced valuable seismic records that offered an opportunity to investigate the characteristics of long-period ground motion and pulse probability distribution. This study works in three main parts. First, we use the finite difference method (FDM) to reproduce the long-period ground motions of the 2016 Kumamoto MW 7.1 earthquake. That provides a crucial foundation for the subsequent phases. We identify velocity pulses within both synthetic and observed waveforms. By rigorously analyzing these pulses, we unveiled a wealth of insights into the characteristics of velocity pulses, strengthening the influence of the rupture directivity effect. In particular, the northeast region of the rupture exhibited a significant concentration of pulsed attributes. Finally, we further focus on establishing statistical relationships between different pulse parameters. The study revealed that the pulse probability distribution model fit well with the observed pulse distribution in the parallel to the fault (FP) and normal to the fault (FN) directions. However, the model also faced challenges in the FN direction due to the mechanism of velocity pulses and altered rupture propagation direction. Crucially, the study established that velocity pulses primarily cluster within a fault distance of less than 30 km, and the relationship between pulse peak value and fault distance followed an exponential trend. The study underscores the imperative of further refining the probability distribution model of velocity pulses, making it more robust and widely applicable. Furthermore, the correlation between velocity pulses and seismic parameters requires further validation through seismic records. This study sets the stage for a deeper understanding of earthquake-induced ground motion and pulse characteristics, contributing to the ongoing efforts in seismic risk assessment.

The role of inherited structural anisotropies during co-seismic surface faulting: The Pescopagano fault case study (Irpinia seismogenic area, Southern Italy)

Co-seismic failure can occur on newly formed or on inherited structures. However, understanding their surface pattern is challenging when pre-existing structural anisotropies control rupture propagation. We focus here on the Pescopagano Fault (PF), considered part of the extensional fault system that ruptured during the 1980, Mw 6.9 earthquake in Southern Italy. Although the mainshock fault (Irpinia Fault) produced ∼ 40 km of NW-SE trending ground ruptures, these were not observed on a buried antithetic fault located to the northeast of the main fault and defined solely by seismological data. The PF studied here is part of an exposed fault array that spatially coincides with the trace of the antithetic fault. To better assess existing seismotectonic models for the Irpinia fault system, we investigated: i) whether ground ruptures occurred on the PF during past earthquakes, and ii) to what degree surface and deep faults are linked. Paleo-seismological trenches document that the PF has not released surface-rupturing earthquakes during the last ∼13–20 ka. Structural data suggest that the PF developed to accommodate the relaxation of a Pliocene thrust-fold system after the demise of thrusting. Results of this work highlight that the PF may be an inherited Pliocene or Early Pleistocene structure that does not reach the ∼10–15 km seismogenic depth typical of this region. In this scenario, the upward propagation of the antithetic fault from seismogenic depths towards the surface during a 1980-type earthquake may be impeded by a mélange layer developed during the growth of the Southern Apennines thrust belt and interposed between the deep antithetic fault and the upper crustal faults. We cannot exclude, however, that the PF may be activated during very large but infrequent and non-characteristic earthquakes on the Irpinia fault system.

Fault geometry and kinematics at the intersection of the Zemuhe, Daliangshan and Xiaojiang Faults

The complexity of strike-slip fault segmentation affects the initiation, propagation, and termination of earthquake ruptures and the earthquake magnitude. Studying the fault geometry, kinematics, and segmentation provides fundamental knowledge for mitigating earthquake hazards along faults. The Zemuhe, Daliangshan, and Xiaojiang Faults intersect along the eastern boundary of the Tibetan Plateau in the area from Ningnan in Sichuan Province to Qiaojia in Yunnan Province. Although few large earthquakes have occurred on these faults, the relationships between the intersections of these three faults and earthquake rupture behavior in this region are poorly constrained. The interpretation of aerial photographs and detailed field surveys revealed the geometric pattern and fault kinematics in the area of intersection. The distribution patterns and focal depths near the faults were obtained via analysis of seismic data in the area of intersection. The northern segment of the Xiaojiang Fault deviates approximately 25° northwest of Qiaojia, forming a conspicuous bend. The Xiaojiang Fault continues to extend southeast of the Ningnan Basin, where it intersects with the southern segment of the Zemuhe Fault, forming a pull-apart basin approximately 4.5 km wide. The bend and Ningnan pull-apart basin mark the segmented boundary between the Zemuhe Fault and the Xiaojiang Fault, which may prevent the propagation of large earthquake ruptures along the eastern boundary fault. Moreover, the lack of obvious geometric complexity between the Daliangshan Fault and Xiaojiang Fault might hinder the prevention of earthquake rupture propagation. Additionally, our results suggest that different earthquake prevention and disaster reduction measures should be taken for different cities in the region.

Heterogeneous high frequency seismic radiation from complex ruptures

Fault geometric heterogeneities such as roughness, stepovers, or other irregularities are known to affect the spectra of radiated waves during an earthquake. To investigate the effect of normal stress heterogeneity on radiated spectra, we utilized a poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) laboratory fault with a single, localized bump. By varying the normal stress on the bump and the fault-average normal stress, we produced earthquake-like ruptures that ranged from smooth, continuous ruptures to complex ruptures with variable rupture propagation velocity, slip distribution, and stress drop. High prominence bumps produced complex events that radiated more high frequency energy, relative to low frequency energy, than continuous events without a bump. In complex ruptures, the high frequency energy showed significant spatial variation correlated with heterogeneous peak slip rate and maximum local stress drop caused by the bump. Continuous ruptures emitted spatially uniform bursts of high frequency energy. Near-field peak ground acceleration (PGA) measurements of complex ruptures show nearly an order-of-magnitude higher PGA near the bump than elsewhere. We propose that for natural faults, geometric heterogeneities may be a plausible explanation for commonly observed order-of-magnitude variations in near-fault PGA.

Low‐Viscosity Zones Beneath the Coso Volcanic Field Revealed by Postseismic Deformations Following the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake

AbstractThe rheology of materials near fault zones controls the deformation of the fault, thus playing an important role in the rupture propagation of large earthquakes. Here, we model the postseismic deformation in the first 4 years following the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake, and probe the laterally variable lower‐crustal viscosity and fault afterslip, using a combined model incorporating afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation. Modeling results reveal that laterally variable low‐viscosity zones (1017∼1018 Pa·s) beneath the Coso Volcanic Field are required to explain the observations well. These low‐viscosity materials may reduce the width of the brittle part of the fault, thus affecting the northwestward propagation of the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake rupture and the spatial pattern of nearby seismicity. Numerical simulations reveal that the postseismic viscoelastic relaxation of the event will cause contractional strain in the upper‐crustal magma reservoirs, which may counteract the extensional strain caused by the coseismic rupture.

Dynamic rupture modeling in a complex fault zone with distributed and localized damage

Active fault zones have complex structural and geometric features that are expected to affect earthquake nucleation, rupture propagation with shear and volumetric deformation, and arrest. Earthquakes, in turn, dynamically activate co-seismic off-fault damage that may be both distributed and localized, affecting fault zone geometry and rheology, and further influencing post-seismic deformation and subsequent earthquake sequences. Understanding this co-evolution of fault zones and earthquakes is a fundamental challenge in computational rupture dynamics with consequential implications for earthquake physics, seismic hazard and risk. Here, we implement a continuum damage-breakage (CDB) rheology model in our MOOSE-FARMS dynamic rupture simulator to investigate the interplay between bulk damage and fault motion on the evolution of dynamic rupture, energy partitioning, and ground motion characteristics. We demonstrate several effects of damage (accounting for distributed cracking) and breakage (accounting for granulation) on rupture dynamics in the context of two prototype problems addressed currently in the 2D plane-strain setting: (1) a single planar fault and (2) a fracture network. We quantify the spatio-temporal reduction in wave speeds associated with dynamic ruptures in each of these cases and track the evolution of the original fault zone geometry. The results highlight the growth and coalescence of localization bands as well as competition between localized slip on the pre-existing faults vs. inelastic deformation in the bulk. We analyze the differences between off-fault dissipation through damage-breakage vs. plasticity and show that damage-induced softening increases the slip and slip rate, suggesting enhanced energy radiation and reduced energy dissipation. These results have important implications for long-standing problems in earthquake and fault physics as well as near-fault seismic hazard, and they motivate continuing towards 3D simulations and detailed near-fault observations to uncover the processes occurring in earthquake rupture zones.

Kinematic Source Properties of the 2023 Mw 7.7 Türkiye Earthquake Inferred from Near-Fault Strong Ground Motions

Abstract The 2023 Mw 7.7 Türkiye earthquake provided densely observed near-fault ground-motion data, which enabled us to investigate their characteristics and generations. This study aimed to obtain an intuitive understanding of the characteristics of near-fault strong ground motions and their relationship with kinematic source properties using a simple source model. Synthetic ground motions were calculated using the discrete wave number method and compared with observed ground motions. The observed strong motions were used after a time correction based on the first P-wave arrival. Results showed that near-fault pulse-like velocities (0.02–0.6 Hz) were generally explained by the simple kinematic source model that assumed a continuous rupture propagation along the faults. Comparisons at individual sites indicate the various rupture properties of the fault segments. Near-fault ground motions along the Narli segment were explained by the fault plane along the surface trace and not by aftershock distribution. A supershear rupture propagation speed is necessary for a part of the Amanos segment. Rupture stops and restarts were implied near the stepover along the Amanos segment. Empirical site factors estimated by generalized inversion techniques did not show peaks around the frequency of observed large velocity pulses, indicating that the velocity pulses were mainly generated by the source. The model bias and uncertainties were also examined to supplement the simplified subsurface structure used in the simulation. Our results will help to associate the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the kinematic source process with near-fault strong ground motions.

Emergent fault friction and supershear in a continuum model of geophysical rupture

Important physical observations in rupture dynamics such as static fault friction, short-slip, self-healing, and the supershear phenomenon in cracks are studied. A continuum model of rupture dynamics is developed using the field dislocation mechanics (FDM) theory. The energy density function in our model encodes accepted and simple physical facts related to rocks and granular materials under compression. We work within a 2-dimensional ansatz of FDM where the rupture front is allowed to move only in a horizontal fault layer sandwiched between elastic blocks. Damage via the degradation of elastic modulus is allowed to occur only in the fault layer, characterized by the amount of plastic slip. The theory dictates the evolution equation of the plastic shear strain to be a Hamilton–Jacobi (H-J) equation, resulting in the representation of a propagating rupture front. A Central-Upwind scheme is used to solve the H-J equation. The rupture propagation is fully coupled to elastodynamics in the whole domain, and our simulations recover static friction laws as emergent features of our continuum model, without putting in by hand any such discontinuous criteria in the formulation. Estimates of material parameters of cohesion and friction angle are deduced. Short-slip and slip-weakening (crack-like) behaviors are also reproduced as a function of the degree of damage behind the rupture front. The long-time behavior of a moving rupture front is probed, and it is deduced that equilibrium profiles under no shear stress are not traveling wave profiles under non-zero shear load in our model. However, it is shown that a traveling wave structure is likely attained in the limit of long times. Finally, a crack-like damage front is driven by an initial impact loading, and it is observed in our numerical simulations that an upper bound to the crack speed is the dilatational wave speed of the material unless the material is put under pre-stressed conditions, in which case supersonic motion can be obtained. Without pre-stress, intersonic (supershear) motion is recovered under appropriate conditions.

Dual-initiation ruptures in the 2024 Noto earthquake encircling a fault asperity at a swarm edge.

To reveal the connections between the 2024 moment magnitude (Mw) 7.5 Noto earthquake in Japan and the seismicity swarms that preceded it, we investigated its rupture process through near-source waveform analysis and source imaging techniques, combining seismic and geodetic datasets. We found notable complexity in the initial rupture stages. A strong fault asperity, which remained unbroken in preceding seismic swarms, slowed down the rupture. Then, a second rupture initiated at the opposite edge of the asperity, and the asperity succumbed to double-pincer rupture fronts. The failure of this high-stress drop asperity drove the earthquake into a large-scale event. Our observations help unravel the crucial role of fault asperities in controlling swarm migration and rupture propagation and underscore the need for detailed seismological and interdisciplinary studies to assess seismic risk in swarm-prone regions.

Slow rupture in a fluid-rich fault zone initiated the 2024 Mw 7.5 Noto earthquake.

The 2024 moment magnitude 7.5 Noto Peninsula (Japan) earthquake caused devastation to communities and was generated by a complex rupture process. Using space geodetic and seismic observations, we have shown that the event deformed the peninsula with a peak uplift reaching 5 meters at the west coast. Shallow slip exceeded 10 meters on an offshore fault. Peak stress drop was greater than 10 megapascals. This devastating event began with a slow rupture propagation lasting 15 to 20 seconds near its hypocenter, where seismic swarms had surged since 2020 because of lower-crust fluid supply. The slow start was accompanied by intense high-frequency seismic radiation. These observations suggest a distinct coseismic slip mode reflecting high heterogeneity in fault properties within a fluid-rich fault zone.

Fault rock properties and conditions produce variance in slip during earthquake rupture propagation at the Nankai Trough

Although drilled samples of fault rocks have yielded information on frictional features of shallow subduction zones, the relationship of rupture propagation to the levels of friction and pore-fluid pressure remains uncertain. To investigate this topic, we performed dynamic rupture simulations along the megasplay fault that slipped during the 1944 Mw 8.0 Tonankai earthquake in the Nankai Trough. We used actual data from friction experiments on rocks from the fault segment and pre-existing pore pressures deduced from geophysical surveys for the shallow portion of 0–10 km depth along the fault. Simulations of low friction (friction coefficient ca. 0.04) produced large slip (about 30 m), whereas simulations using higher friction (friction coefficient ca. 0.2) suppressed the rupture. In simulations with low friction in which the pore-fluid pressure was nearly equal to the lithostatic stress, the slip decreased to about 25 m. However, when the simulations included slip-strengthening at shallow depth and higher friction, the slip still reached roughly 20 m. Such variability in slip during rupture propagation is caused by differences in the friction features and fluid pressure conditions of fault rocks, in which the friction features might be related to the mineral composition. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in fault-rock type and their physical and hydraulic properties may fundamentally produce the complexity and variability of earthquake rupture propagation along the Nankai plate-subduction boundary.

SEISMOGENIC ZONE OF CAPE SHARTLAY (LAKE BAIKAL): SPECIFIC FEATURES OF STRUCTURE, DISPLACEMENTS AND RUPTURE GROWTH

Seismogenic deformations of Cape Shartlay represent a very young fault system on the northwestern coast of Lake Baikal. Their study is providing an important opportunity to measure earthquake magnitudes, to identify areas where earthquakes are more likely to occur, and to estimate the probability of earthquake occurrence as applied to seismically active Baikal region. In this connection, the present work was aimed at characterizing in detail the structure, displacements, and reconstruction of the rupture propagation model. The study is based on photogrammetric processing and interpretation of the unmanned aerial survey data, as well as on morphostructural analysis of the displacement profiles and georadiolocation (GPR) data. It has been found that seismogenic ruptures of Cape Shartlay formed under prevailing extension conditions during no less than two earthquakes with magnitudes Mw≥7.0, Ms≥7.2. Seismic rupture propagation was primarily northward. The main rupture with displacement amplitude of more than 2 m contributed 39 to 93 % to the total surface displacement depending on the amount of dislocations on the transverse profile. It is shown that the length of a certain rupture increased almost instantaneously, then displacements along some of the ruptures stopped. A significant elongation of ruptures is primarily due to their merging. The present-day seismogenic zone is highly permeable. According to the tectonophysical model of formation of inner structure of the fault zone, the development of the seismogenic rupture system of Cape Shartlay corresponds to the late disjunctive stage. This means that the rupturing process in this segment of the North Baikal fault may not have stopped yet, and the lack of large earthquakes in the instrumental record implies the accumulation of stress in its southern part. The obtained results provide an opportunity to reconstruct the development of large fault zones by studying the displacement profiles and, therefore, to localize more precisely the places where future earthquakes may occur.