Runoff Risk Research Articles

Combining field phosphorus runoff risk assessments with whole-farm phosphorus balances to guide manure management decisions.

Phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields contributes to water quality degradation. A phosphorus index (PI) is a tool that scores fields based on P loss potential. Recently, a new transport × best or beneficial management practice (BMP) approach was proposed for the New York PI (NY-PI), which first scores fields using landscape-based transport factors (raw scores) and then offers various BMPs to reduce the score (i.e., risk of P transport). The final score is assigned a management implication (N needs based, P removal based, or zero P application), taking into account field-specific soil-test P (STP) and the farm's whole-farm P balance. With farmer and nutrient management planner input and data on field-specific transport factors and whole-farm P balances of 18 New York dairy farms, we set coefficients for transport factors, BMPs related to P application, and STP limits and determined the impact of implementation of the new NY-PI on manure management options. Based on raw scores, the proposed NY-PI initially limited manure application to 51% of the total cropland area of the participating farms (28% N-based, 23% P-based). Implementation of BMPs (i.e., changing the method and ground cover or timing of P application) allowed 43-98% of the land area to receive manure at N-based rates. For farms with whole-farm P balances within the feasible limits set for New York, an additional 0-50% of the land base was classified as N-based management, depending on BMP selection. These results show the ability of the new NY-PI to limit P applications on fields with high transport risk while incentivizing adoption of BMPs and improvements in whole-farm P management.

Exploring the hydrologic response to the urban building coverage ratio by model simulation

The increasing building coverage ratio accompanied by the increase in impervious surfaces during the urbanization process may change the flow concentration conditions, but little attention has been given to this issue. This study aims to explore the hydrologic response to the building coverage ratio in small catchments. A representative urban region in Nankai District, Tianjin city, was selected as the study area. Different building coverage ratio scenarios were designed and then simulated using the cellular automata dual-drainage simulation model (CADDIES-caflood). Maximum water depth (WD) and peak time (PT) were used as the metrics to assess the surface flow response. Three drainage capacities were set up to check the influence of drainage facilities. Moreover, the area inundation characteristics were analysed through the distribution of WD. The results showed that the WDs at the water collection points decreased and the PTs increased with increasing building coverage ratio for rainfall with a relatively lower return period, but the WD may increase for rainfall with a higher return period. When the drainage capacity increased, the WD showed a significant decreasing trend for rainfall with a higher return period. The proportion of inundated area had an obvious uptrend with 1 year return period rainfall but a downtrend trend with rainfall return periods greater than 2 years. The mean value of the WDs of the water points increased with increasing building coverage ratio, while the skewness and kurtosis all declined. These findings may offer a new perspective on urban runoff risk mitigation.

A new risk probability calculation method for urban ecological risk assessment

The ecological risk associated with urbanization is of great concern where multiple stressors and risk receptors co-exist. Probabilistic risk characterization methods were rarely applied in past urban ecological risk assessments because of the difficulties in the derivation of theoretical probability distribution functions and the definite integral calculation. Therefore, we proposed a new method which is based on computer simulation and able to facilitate the calculation of risk probabilities. This method quantifies multiple ecological risk-related indicators using ecological models, implements Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the risk probability of single indicators, and applies the copula model to calculate the joint risk probability of multiple indicators. We conducted an assessment of urban ecological risk related to urban surface water environment in Beijing as a case study to validate this method. The results show that the means of surface runoff risk probability, total nitrogen pollutant load risk probability, and comprehensive (joint) risk probability were 0.33, 0.44, and 0.23, respectively, in the areas within Beijing Sixth Ring Road. All three types of risk were at moderate levels in the study areas, but exhibited high spatial heterogeneity and urban–suburban gradient. The average contributions of the three risk types were 25% (surface runoff risk), 32% (total nitrogen pollutant load risk), and 43% (comprehensive risk), indicating that the joint risk was overall the major risk type. In conclusion, our method considering multiple indicators and their probabilistic attributes can handle the uncertainties in ecological models and thus has potential to evaluate different types of urban ecological risks.

Effects of combined conservation practices on soil and water quality in the Central Mississippi River Basin

Conventional cultivation of claypan soils leads to soil and water quality degradation because of high runoff and associated soil erosion. The Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed, which is part of the USDA Agricultural Research Service Benchmark Conservation Effects Assessment Project, Watershed Assessment Studies, was established to address these issues. Plot studies have highlighted trade-offs between erosion control and herbicide or nutrient runoff. There is a need for long-term field-scale evaluation of combined practices that reduce sediment, nutrient, and herbicide losses by runoff. A 36 ha field located in Missouri was under a conventional corn (<i>Zea mays</i> L.)–soybean (<i>Glycine max</i> L.) system from 1993 to 2003 with fertilizer application and tillage prior to planting in the spring. A precision agriculture system defined by two main management zones was implemented from 2004 to 2014: wheat (<i>Triticum aestivum</i> L.) and soybean in 60% of the field, and corn and soybean in the remaining 40%. The system included no-till, cover crops, atrazine split-applications based on weed pressure, variable rates of nitrogen (N), and variable rates of fall-applied phosphorus (P). The objective of this study was to compare runoff water quality from the two management systems, based on flow and load duration curves, cumulative distribution functions, and conclusions from replicated plot studies. The precision agriculture system did not affect annual runoff, but it did increase the frequency of low flows. Sediment losses were reduced by 87% as a result of no-till and cover crops. Atrazine and P losses were lower than expected, despite the lack of incorporation into the soil. Atrazine losses were possibly lower because of the wheat area acting as a buffer, greater atrazine adsorption and retention in the field, and faster decay. Dissolved P losses as a fraction of applied remained the same, likely because of greater adsorption and lower runoff risk when applying P. Finally, nitrate-N (NO₃-N) losses decreased and resulted in an overall decrease of N losses despite a slight increase of ammonium-N (NH₄-N) losses. Explanations included a greater soil water content, a different timing of N applications, and N uptake by cover crops. Building on these successes, an aspirational management system is proposed to further improve on the performance and practicality of the precision agriculture system.

Phosphorus runoff risk assessment in karstic regions of the United States

AbstractThe Phosphorus (P) Index risk assessment tool has been widely adopted across the United States to identify and rank site vulnerability to P runoff as part of the Natural Resources Conservation Service nutrient management planning (NMP) process. However, limited success has been achieved in addressing the risk of P loss by subsurface flow pathways, despite its relative importance in certain areas of the United States, particularly in those U.S. states dominated by karst terrain. Here we review how states with varying land areas classified as having karst features address the risk of P runoff during the NMP process. Indices adopted in Illinois and Indiana require setbacks (widths 15–72 m) around surface karst features. The remaining states with karst address the risk of P loss in NMP development rather than the application of a P Index. Given the spatially variable hydrogeologic properties of karst, technically rigorous field‐scale factors are unlikely to be developed in the near future.

Quantitative assessment of surface runoff at arid region: a case study in the Middle of Nile Delta

BackgroundEvaluation of surface runoff is an essential factor in the precision water and soil conservation management through their main extreme impacts on soil properties. The natural resource conservation service curve number model (NRCS-CN) model is used to estimate the magnitude of runoff. Collected topographic data is used to explain the effects of slope variation on water retention and surface runoff. Twenty-eight soil profiles are prepared in Nile delta, Egypt to cover different geomorphic units and hydrological soil groups in the study area.ResultsThe results revealed that the highest value of surface runoff was distinguished close to the urban area and ranges between 40 and 50 mm. In urban areas, the surfaces are paved and there are no infiltration of water. Consequently, the runoff water directly flows to the storm channels. Runoff values ranging between 30 and 40 mm occurred at the north of the study area. The sloping surface and the nature of the clay soil contributed to generate more runoff than do lowland areas.ConclusionThe study presented and tested the hydric runoff estimation based-model on the integrating of hydric balance parameters. The GIS tools analyze and compose these parameters to perform an indirect method for the quantity of water that results in direct surface runoff flow. This method helps to gain clear imaging of the surface runoff risks in the study area.

Socio-demographic and experience factors affecting drivers’ runoff risk along horizontal curves of two-lane rural highway

Introduction: An improper driving strategy is one of the causative factors for a high probability of runoff and overturning crashes along the horizontal curves of two-lane highways. The socio-demographic and driving experience factors of a driver do influence driving strategy. Hence, this paper explored the effect of these factors on the driver’s runoff risk along the horizontal curves. Method: The driving performance data of 48 drivers along 52 horizontal curves was recorded in a fixed-base driving simulator. The driving performance index was estimated from the weighted lateral acceleration profile of each driver along a horizontal curve. It was clustered and compared with the actual runoff events observed during the experiment. It yielded high, moderate, and low-risk clusters. Using cross-tabulation, each risk cluster was compared with the socio-demographic and experience factors. Further, generalized mixed logistic regression models were developed to predict the high-risk and high to moderate risk events. Results: The age and experience of drivers are the influencing factors for runoff crash. The high-risk event percentage for mid-age drivers decreases with an increase in driving experience. For younger drivers, it increases initially but decreases afterwards. The generalized mixed logistic regression models identified young drivers with mid and high experience and mid-age drivers with low-experience as the high-risk groups. Conclusions: The proposed index parameter is effective in identifying the risk associated with horizontal curves. Driver training program focusing on the horizontal curve negotiation skills and graduated driver licensing could help the high-risk groups. Practical applications: The proposed index parameter can evaluate driving behavior at the horizontal curves. Driving behavior of high-risk groups could be considered in highway geometric design. Motor-vehicle agencies, advanced driver assistance systems manufacturers, and insurance agencies can use proposed index parameter to identify the high-risk drivers for their perusal.

The Ranking of Districts in Ouagadougou by the Risk of Flood and Runoff Using the PROMETHEE

PROMETHEE methods are used for analyzing the risk of flood runoff in urban areas of Ouagadougou in Burkina Faso. 12 criteria are considered to calculate preference indices of the districts. We generated, on one hand, weights associated to these criteria taking into account hypotheses relatively to the importance or to the impact of each criterion evaluating the risk of flood runoff and on the other hand, we used the PROMETHEE methods to analyze this decision’s problem with its diverse criteria. The PROMETHEE I and PROMETHEE II are used ranking the districts in relation with the degree of risk of flood runoff. This ranking is permitted by the calculated preference indices. Our aim is, on one hand  showing to the potential decision-maker the importance of such a multi-criteria analysis and on the other hand, of verifying the coherence of the hypotheses with the obtained weights.

Spatial characters of road network in Beijing and its relations with runoff risk based on GIS

Urbanization increases the urban area of storm flood disaster risk, the quantitative study of urban rainfall runoff characteristics, can provide a scientific basis for the scientific planning and management of the city. Rings with the area of Beijing as the research object, by using GIS technology to extract the rings in land cover information, combined with the functions of the different regions use partition. On the basis, combining with SCS-CN hydrological models in the study area have been analyzed for different rainfall return period of rainfall runoff distribution characteristics, and quantitative identification of the risk area of flow produce rings in Beijing area. Rings in runoff yield risk pattern shows a center of high and low around the circular distribution, high flow risk zones mostly distributed in the center of the city’s commercial and residential areas, low flow risk zones are mainly large park and natural green space, distributed between the fourth and the rings.

THE RESERVE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CHAIN LADDER MODEL OF MACK REVISITED

AbstractWe revisit the “full picture” of the claims development uncertainty in Mack’s (1993) distribution-free stochastic chain ladder model. We derive the uncertainty estimators in a new and easily understandable way, which is much simpler than the derivation found so far in the literature, and compare them with the well known estimators of Mack and of Merz–Wüthrich.Our uncertainty estimators of the one-year run-off risks are new and different to the Merz–Wüthrich formulas. But if we approximate our estimators by a first order Taylor expansion, we obtain equivalent but simpler formulas. As regards the ultimate run-off risk, we obtain the same formulas as Mack for single accident years and an equivalent but better interpretable formula for the total over all accident years.

Evaluating Management Implications of the New York Phosphorus Index with Farm Field Information.

Phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields can contribute to water quality degradation. The current New York P index (NY-PI) scores fields on the basis of P sources and field characteristics that reflect risk of P transport (a source × transport approach). Recently, a transport × best management practice (BMP) approach was proposed, which first scores fields using landscape-driven transport factors and then offers various BMPs to reduce the score (i.e., risk of P transport). To analyze the score distribution of the current NY-PI and the incentivizing potential of the proposed structure, a database of 33,327 agricultural fields in New York was assembled in collaboration with nutrient management planners and farmers. Under the current NY-PI, no additional P could be applied to 2% of the fields, while for 3% the application rates should not exceed annual crop P removal. Flow distance (field to stream) was a major driver for NY-PI scores. The current NY-PI relies heavily on soil test P to assess runoff risk, allowing some low-P fields to receive manure independent of transport risk. A scenario evaluation showed that the proposed NY-PI limits P application on fields with high transport risk while simultaneously incentivizing adoption of BMPs in such areas. In the absence of farm-level water quality data, a farm field database can help set P index coefficients and assess implications of a new P index. This study emphasizes the value of involving stakeholders in assessing nutrient management tools, as well as the importance of using an incentive-driven approach for protecting water resources.

A Generic Approach for Live Prediction of the Risk of Agricultural Field Runoff and Delivery to Watercourses: Linking Parsimonious Soil-Water-Connectivity Models With Live Weather Data Apis in Decision Tools

This paper describes the development and application of a novel and generic framework for parsimonious soil-water interaction models to predict the risk of agro-chemical runoff. The underpinning models represent two scales to predict runoff risk in fields and the delivery of mobilized pesticides to river channel networks. Parsimonious field and landscape scale runoff risk models were constructed using a number of pre-computed parameters in combination with live rainfall data. The precomputed parameters included spatially-distributed historical rainfall data to determine long term average soil water content and the sensitivity of land use and soil type combinations to runoff. These were combined with real-time live rainfall data, freely available through open data portals and APIs, to determine runoff risk using SCS Curve Numbers. The rainfall data was stored to provide antecedent, current and future rainfall inputs. For the landscape scale model, the delivery risk of mobilized pesticides to the river network included intrinsic landscape factors. The application of the framework is illustrated for two case studies at field and catchment scales, covering acid herbicide at field scale and metaldehyde at landscape scale. Web tools were developed and the outputs provide spatially and temporally explicit predictions of runoff and pesticide delivery risk at 1 km2 resolution. The model parsimony reflects the driving nature of rainfall and soil saturation for runoff risk and the critical influence of both surface and drain flow connectivity for the risk of mobilized pesticide being delivered to watercourses. The novelty of this research lies in the coupling of live spatially-distributed weather data with precomputed runoff and delivery risk parameters for crop and soil types and historical rainfall trends. The generic nature of the framework supports the ability to model the runoff and field-to-channel delivery risk associated with any in-field agricultural application assuming application rate data are available.

Phosphorous runoff risk assessment and its potential management using wollastonite according to geochemical modeling

Abstract Loss of phosphorus from agricultural land through water runoff causes serious detrimental effects on the environment and on water quality. Phosphorous runoff from excessive use of fertilizers can cause algal blooms to grow in nearby water systems, producing toxins that contaminate drinking water sources and recreational water. In this study, a risk analysis of the algal toxin micro-cystin-LR and the mitigation of phosphorus from agriculture runoff is discussed. A risk analysis was performed on the algal bloom toxin microcystin-LR considering the Lake Erie algal bloom event of 2011 as a case study. Toxicity risk analysis results show that relatively low concentrations of microcystin-LR compared to recent case studies pose an acute health risk to both children and adults, and a significant increase in the risk of developing cancer is suggested but subject to further study given the assumptions made. This study investigated the potential of using wollastonite to mitigate phosphorus pollution, considering thermodynamic conditions of a constructed wetland receiving influent water from agriculture runoff, by using geochemical modelling. Geochemical modelling results show that wollastonite can react with phosphorus and capture it in the stable mineral form of hydroxyapatite, offering a possible strategy for risk mitigation of phosphorous runoff. A removal efficiency of 77% of phosphorus using wollastonite is calculated with the help of geochemical modelling.

Impact of aerosols on reservoir inflow: A case study for Big Creek Hydroelectric System in California

Accurate and reliable reservoir inflow forecast is instrumental to the efficient operation of the hydroelectric power systems. It has been discovered that natural and anthropogenic aerosols have a great influence on meteorological variables such as temperature, snow water equivalent, and precipitation, which in turn impact the reservoir inflow. Therefore, it is imperative for us to quantify the impact of aerosols on reservoir inflow and to incorporate the aerosol models into future reservoir inflow forecasting models. In this paper, a comprehensive framework was developed to quantify the impact of aerosols on reservoir inflow by integrating the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) and a dynamic regression model. The statistical dynamic regression model produces forecasts for reservoir inflow based on the meteorological output variables from the WRF-Chem model. The case study was performed on the Florence Lake and Lake Thomas Alva Edison of the Big Creek Hydroelectric Project in the San Joaquin Region. The simulation results show that the presence of aerosols results in a significant reduction of annual reservoir inflow by 4-14%. In the summer, aerosols reduce precipitation, snow water equivalent, and snowmelt that leads to a reduction in inflow by 11-26%. In the spring, aerosols increase temperature and snowmelt which leads to an increase in inflow by 0.6-2%. Aerosols significantly reduce the amount of inflow in the summer when the marginal value of water is extremely high and slightly increase the inflow in the spring when the run-off risk is high. In summary, the presence of aerosols is detrimental to the optimal utilization of hydroelectric power systems.

A GIS-Based Approach for the Sustainable Management of Livestock Effluents on Alpine Meadows

Sustainable livestock effluent management is becoming an increasingly important issue in mountain areas, with particular regard to the agro-environmental performance of forage production and the social acceptability of organic fertilizer application in mixed urban-rural contexts. The present paper proposes a GIS-based methodological approach to the management and planning of digestate spreading on hay meadows, based on the integration of geo-morphological, agro-botanical and spatio-functional data about cultivated agricultural land. The proposed methodology was tested in a case-study Community of the Italian Alps, with 7 dairy farms operating an anaerobic digestion plant. Nitrogen production by cattle was quantified and compared to sustainable nitrogen requirements of cut meadows, computed at the single-plot level through agro-botanical typisation of swards. Subsequently, spreading restrictions provided by national and local regulations were spatially implemented. Farm-tailored nitrogen balances and digestate spreading plans were designed to help livestock farms adjust effluent spreading patterns according to meadow type and surface runoff risk. Findings are transferrable to other mountain regions based on cattle farming and grassland management.

Seasonal variation of soil aggregate stability, porosity and infiltration during a crop sequence under no tillage

Las propiedades edáf icas varían en el tiempo, presentando los suelos durante el año diferente susceptibilidad al escurrimiento y la erosión. En siembra directa, las propiedades físicas edáf icas pueden variar fundamentalmente debido a efectos climáticos, del cultivo o por el tránsito de la maquinaria. El objetivo del presente trabajo fue analizar la variación estacional de algunas propiedades físicas edáf icas en un Argiudol ácuico bajo siembra directa, determinando su relación con la inf iltración y el escurrimiento durante una secuencia de cultivos característica de la Región Pampeana (Argentina). El estudio se desarrolló en un lote perteneciente a la Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Paraná del Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), ubicado en la provincia de Entre Ríos (Argentina). Se obtuvieron muestras de suelo en seis fechas diferentes durante la secuencia de cultivos. Se determinó en cada una de ellas las siguientes propiedades: contenido de agua, densidad aparente, distribución de poros, estabilidad estructural y la inf iltración de agua medida con un simulador de lluvias. Para relacionar el comportamiento de estas propiedades con las condiciones climáticas previas, se consideraron distintos parámetros climáticos. No hubo influencia de la especie cultivada y de los ciclos de humedecimiento y secado del suelo sobre las propiedades físicas evaluadas. Sin embargo, este Argiudol con un alto contenido de limo y con una capacidad de contracción-expansión entre moderada y alta, mostró una mayor macroporosidad con suelo seco, disminuyendo el coef iciente de escurrimiento. La capacidad de inf iltración estuvo también afectada por la estabilidad estructural, siendo esta más favorable en períodos de mayor temperatura. Se concluye que el momento crítico de este Argiudol para la producción de escurrimiento sería desde la mitad de otoño hasta el comienzo de la primavera, cuando el suelo tiene mayor humedad y hay bajas temperaturas, con consecuencias negativas sobre la macroporosidad, estabilidad estructural e inf iltración. En tal sentido, la implementación de cultivos de cobertura durante el invierno, es una práctica de manejo que favorecerá el desecamiento y la cobertura del suelo, disminuyendo en dicho período el riesgo de escurrimiento.

Quantitative assessment of the runoff index in an urbanized watershed

Urbanization modifies the natural water cycle. In this study, a weighted-rating multicriteria analysis was adopted to quantify the runoff index and to assess the impact of urbanization on the water cycle. The considered parameters are (1) slope, (2) permeability of soil, and (3) rainfall. Using the land use map, a runoff risk map was established. The approach was applied to Manouba catchment. The main results revealed that between 2004 and 2014, the area with a high runoff index increased from 32% to 39%. The runoff risk increased; in 2004, the high class covered 18% of the watershed area. This value became 30% in 2014. Results demonstrate that urbanization affects hydrological processes. This method is appropriate in other similar watersheds to estimate the runoff index.

Transformation of Phosphorus in Speciation and Bioavailability During Converting Poultry Litter to Biochar

Converting poultry litter (PL) to biochar and applying the biochar to cropland as a soil amendment may be a best approach for recovering nutrients from solid biowastes while minimizing the nutrient runoff losses from the treated field. To evaluate the potential of PL-derived biochar as a slow-release phosphorus (P) fertilizer, the speciation, mobilitylability, and bioavailability of P in PL and the derived biochars were examined and compared. Raw PL and its derived biochars through 300–600°C slow pyrolysis were analyzed for total P (TP), inorganic P (IP), and organic P (OP) contents. The TP was fractionated into readily, generally, moderately, low, and non-labile pools by sequential extraction with different solutions. The TP was further assessed for bioavailability using batch extraction by water, Olsen, Bray-1, Mehlich-3, and 1 M HCl extractants. The P species in biochars were characterized using solid-state 31P nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) techniques. The results indicate that during pyrolysis OP in PL was transformed to IP and water-soluble P to low labile forms such as hydroxyapatite and oxyapatite especially during pyrolysis, initially to polyphosphate-P and subsequently to orthophosphate-P at higher temperature. Orthophosphate-P was the predominant form in biochar, with products from higher pyrolysis temperature demonstrating reduced labile P pools yet enlarged low to non-labile fractions. Bray-1 and Mehlich-3 were appropriate extractants for evaluating the immediate to medium-term available and the long-term available P in biochar, respectively. Converting PL to biochar through 450°C pyrolysis significantly reduced the water-soluble proportion and the lability of P but did not compromise the long-term P bioavailability, resulting in a P-enriched, slow release soil amendment that would minimize the P runoff risks following field application. The promising results need to be further validated in soil-biochar-plant systems.

Rainfall-runoff risk characteristics of urban function zones in Beijing using the SCS-CN model

Urbanization significantly increases the risk of urban flooding. Therefore, quantitative study of urban rainfall-runoff processes can provide a scientific basis for urban planning and management. In this paper, the built-up region within the Fifth Ring Road of Beijing was selected as the study area. The details of land cover and urban function zones (UFZs) were identified using GIS and RS methods. On this basis, the SCS-CN model was adopted to analyze the rainfall-runoff risk characteristics of the study area. The results showed that: (1) UFZs within different levels of runoff risk varied under different rainfall conditions. The area ratio of the UFZs with high runoff risk increased from 18.90% (for rainfall return period of 1a) to 54.74% (for period of 100a). Specifically, urban commercial areas tended to have the highest runoff risk, while urban greening spaces had the lowest. (2) The spatial characteristics of the runoff risks showed an obvious circular distribution. Spatial cluster areas with high runoff risk were mainly concentrated in the center of the study area, while those with low runoff risk were mainly distributed between the fourth and fifth ring roads. The results indicated that the spatial clustering characteristic of urban runoff risk and runoff heterogeneity among different UFZs should be fully considered during urban rainwater management.

Short-term Forecasting Tools for Agricultural Nutrient Management.

The advent of real-time, short-term farm management tools is motivated by the need to protect water quality above and beyond the general guidance offered by existing nutrient management plans. Advances in high-performance computing and hydrologic or climate modeling have enabled rapid dissemination of real-time information that can assist landowners and conservation personnel with short-term management planning. This paper reviews short-term decision support tools for agriculture that are under various stages of development and implementation in the United States: (i) Wisconsin's Runoff Risk Advisory Forecast (RRAF) System, (ii) New York's Hydrologically Sensitive Area Prediction Tool, (iii) Virginia's Saturated Area Forecast Model, (iv) Pennsylvania's Fertilizer Forecaster, (v) Washington's Application Risk Management (ARM) System, and (vi) Missouri's Design Storm Notification System. Although these decision support tools differ in their underlying model structure, the resolution at which they are applied, and the hydroclimates to which they are relevant, all provide forecasts (range 24-120 h) of runoff risk or soil moisture saturation derived from National Weather Service Forecast models. Although this review highlights the need for further development of robust and well-supported short-term nutrient management tools, their potential for adoption and ultimate utility requires an understanding of the appropriate context of application, the strategic and operational needs of managers, access to weather forecasts, scales of application (e.g., regional vs. field level), data requirements, and outreach communication structure.