Runoff Deficit Research Articles

Runoff Variability in the Truckee–Carson River Basin from Tree Rings and a Water Balance Model

Abstract Regional warming and associated changes in hydrologic systems pose challenges to water supply management in river basins of the western United States and call for improved understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of runoff. We apply a network of total width, subannual width, and delta blue intensity tree-ring chronologies in combination with a monthly water balance model to identify droughts and their associated precipitation P and temperature T footprints in the Truckee–Carson River basin (TCRB). Stepwise regression gave reasonably accurate reconstructions, from 1688 to 1999, of seasonal P and T (e.g., R2 = 0.50 for May–September T). These were disaggregated to monthly values, which were then routed through a water balance model to generate “indirectly” reconstructed runoff. Reconstructed and observed annual runoff correlate highly (r = 0.80) from 1906 to 1999. The extended runoff record shows that twentieth-century droughts are unmatched in severity in a 300-yr context. Our water balance modeling reconstruction advances the conventional regression-based dendrochronological methods as it allows for multiple hydrologic components (evapotranspiration, snowmelt, etc.) to be evaluated. We found that imposed warming (3° and 6°C) generally exacerbated the runoff deficits in past droughts but that impact could be lessened and sometimes even reversed in some years by compensating factors, including changes in snow regime. Our results underscore the value of combining multiproxy tree-ring data with water balance modeling to place past hydrologic droughts in the context of climate change. Significance Statement We show how water balance modeling in combination with tree-ring data helps place modern droughts in the context of the past few centuries and a warming climate. Seasonal precipitation and temperature were reconstructed from multiproxy tree-ring data for a mountainous location near Lake Tahoe, and these reconstructions were routed through a water balance model to get a record of monthly runoff, snowmelt, and other water balance variables from 1688 to 1999. The resulting extended annual runoff record highlights the unmatched severity of twentieth-century droughts. A warming of 3°C imposed on reconstructed temperature generally exacerbates the runoff anomalies in past droughts, but this effect is sometimes offset by warming-related changes in the snow regime.

Spatiotemporal Variability in the Hydrological Regimes and Water Resources of the Ouham River Basin at Batangafo, Central African Republic

This paper examines the effect of rainfall decline on water resources in each sub-basin (Bozoum: 8100 km2 and Bossangoa: 22,800 km2) and at the outlet of Batangafo (43,650 km2) over the 1951–1995 period, due to a lack of measurements since 1996. Annual, monthly, and daily series of rainfall and discharges were subjected to statistical tests (rainfall and flow indices, SPI, search for ruptures/breaks, depletion coefficient, and potential groundwater discharge) to present and discuss the rainfall variability impact on the water resources of the whole basin. The average rainfall per sub-basin decreases from the west to the east according to the Ouham river direction: 1423 mm at Bozoum, 1439 mm at Bossangoa, and 1393 mm at Batangafo, the main outlet. The SPI approach provides evidence of a moderate to normal drought in the whole basin in the 1980s, mainly compared to the 1970s. Thus, deficient breaks in the rainfall series of the Ouham Basin at Batangafo were noticed in 1967 (Bossangoa and Batangafo) and 1969 (Bozoum). A declining rainfall of −5% on average tended to have the highest impact on the runoff deficit, from about −30 to −43%. The deficit seems more important from west to east, and is also high over the groundwater in each outlet (−33% at Bozoum, −29% at Bossangoa, and −31% at Batangafo) in the 1986–1995 period, despite rainfall recovery in 1991 having generated a flow increase in 1995 at Bossangoa as well as at Batangafo. At the same time, Chari/Logone at Ndjamena recorded critical discharges in both 1987 (313 m3/s) and 1990 (390 m3/s) before they increased, such as on the Ouham. These results demonstrate the decline in water resources in the Ouham River, and their direct impact on the water level of the Chari River and Lake Chad in the targeted period.

Impact of Withdrawals on Karst Watershed Water Supply

Karst systems consist of heterogeneous aquifers characterized by non-linear hydrogeological behavior. This is intrinsically linked to the coexistence of saturated versus unsaturated, open-channel versus closed-conduit flow and laminar versus turbulent flows within these aquifers. These multiple dualities together with a lack of knowledge of their internal structure lead to increasing difficulties in the management of groundwater resources related to karst aquifers. However, karst aquifers constitute strategic fresh water resources and many stakeholders carry out withdrawals sometimes continuously or centered on the period of low water level as for the irrigation. These withdrawals generate discharge decreases that can constitute sources of conflicts between upstream and downstream users of the resource. In this study, we propose a methodology to assess the impact of withdrawals on the spring discharge of a karst aquifer based on a conceptual non-linear reservoirs model. This methodology is applied to the second largest karst system in France: The Touvre karst system (La Rochefoucauld). The simulated influence of the total withdrawals on runoff deficit is larger than the total withdrawals in relationship with the non-linearity of the conceptual models. Globally, this impact is about one and a half of the total withdrawal depending of the year under consideration. Moreover, we show that it also implies a decrease from 10% to 20% of the low-flow annual discharge. The next step will be to also address the issues raised by the climate change projections.

Evaporation enhancement drives the European water-budget deficit during multi-year droughts

Abstract. In a warming climate, periods with lower than average precipitation will increase in frequency and intensity. During such periods, known as meteorological droughts, the decline in annual runoff may be proportionally larger than the corresponding decline in precipitation. Reasons behind this exacerbation of runoff deficit during dry periods remain largely unknown, and this challenges the predictability of when this exacerbation will occur in the future and how intense it will be. In this work, we tested the hypothesis that runoff deficit exacerbation during droughts is a common feature across climates, driven by evaporation enhancement. We relied on multidecadal records of streamflow and precipitation for more than 200 catchment areas across various European climates, which distinctively show the emergence of similar periods of exacerbated runoff deficit identified in previous studies, i.e. runoff deficit on the order of −20 % to −40 % less than what expected from precipitation deficits. The magnitude of this exacerbation is two to three times larger for basins located in dry regions than for basins in wet regions, and is qualitatively correlated with an increase in annual evaporation during droughts, in the order of +11 % and +33 % over basins characterized by energy-limited and water-limited evaporation regimes, respectively. Thus, enhanced atmospheric and vegetation demand for moisture during dry periods induces a nonlinear precipitation-runoff relationship for low-flow regimes, which results in an unexpectedly large decrease in runoff during periods of already low water availability. Forecasting onset, magnitude, and duration of these drops in runoff have paramount societal and ecological implications, especially in a warming climate, given their supporting role for safeguarding water, food, and energy. The outcome that water basins are prone to this exacerbation of runoff deficit for various climates and evaporation regimes makes further understanding of its patterns of predictability an urgent priority for water-resource planning and management in a warming and drier climate.

Propagation dynamics and causes of hydrological drought in response to meteorological drought at seasonal timescales

Abstract According to the widely accepted definition of drought, meteorological and hydrological droughts originally develop from rainfall and runoff deficits, respectively. Runoff deficit is mainly derived from rainfall deficit, and the propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought is critical for agricultural water management. Nevertheless, the characteristics and dynamics of drought propagation in the spatiotemporal scale remain unresolved. To this end, the characteristics and dynamics of drought propagation in different seasons and their linkages with key forcing factors are evaluated. In this study, meteorological and hydrological droughts are characterized by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), respectively. Propagation time is identified by the corresponding timescale of the maximum correlation coefficient between the SPI and the SRI. Then, a 20-year sliding window is adopted to explore the propagation dynamic in various seasons. Furthermore, the multiple linear regression model is established to quantitatively explore the influence of meteorological factors, underlying surface features and teleconnection factors on the propagation time variations. The Wei River Basin, a typical Loess Plateau watershed in China, is selected as a case study. Results indicate the following: (1) the propagation time from meteorological to hydrological drought is shorter in summer (2 months) and autumn (3 months), whereas it is longer in spring (8 months) and winter (13 months). Moreover, the propagation rates exhibit a decreasing trend in warm seasons, which, however, show an increasing trend in cold seasons; (2) a significant slowing propagation in autumn is mainly caused by the decreasing soil moisture and precipitation, whereas the non-significant tendency in summer is generally induced by the offset between insignificant increasing precipitation and significant decreasing soil moisture; (3) the replenishment from streamflow to groundwater in advance prompts the faster propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in spring and winter and (4) teleconnection factors have strong influences on the propagation in autumn, in which Arctic Oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation mainly affect participation, arid index and soil moisture, thereby impacting drought propagation.

Multifaceted characteristics of dryland aridity changes in a warming world

Drylands are an essential component of the Earth System and are among the most vulnerable to climate change. In this Review, we synthesize observational and modelling evidence to demonstrate emerging differences in dryland aridity dependent on the specific metric considered. Although warming heightens vapour pressure deficit and, thus, atmospheric demand for water in both the observations and the projections, these changes do not wholly propagate to exacerbate soil moisture and runoff deficits. Moreover, counter-intuitively, many arid ecosystems have exhibited significant greening and enhanced vegetation productivity since the 1980s. Such divergence between atmospheric and ecohydrological aridity changes can primarily be related to moisture limitations by dry soils and plant physiological regulations of evapotranspiration under elevated CO2. The latter process ameliorates water stress on plant growth and decelerates warming-enhanced water losses from soils, while simultaneously warming and drying the near-surface air. We place these climate-induced aridity changes in the context of exacerbated water scarcity driven by rapidly increasing anthropogenic needs for freshwater to support population growth and economic development. Under future warming, dryland ecosystems might respond non-linearly, caused by, for example, complex ecosystem–hydrology–human interactions and increased mortality risks from drought and heat stress, which is a foremost priority for future research.

Analysis of runoff deficit using the treshold method for the case of three gauging stations in Slovenia

This analysis deals with the comparison of volume and duration of runoff deficits using different drought thresholds for the gauging stations Polana on the Ledava, Litija on the Sava, and Kubed on the Rižana Rivers with different climatic conditions for the hydrologically driest years in the period 1960–2016 in Slovenia. Using the threshold method, all events in which discharge fell below a pre-selected threshold value were identified as drought events. Three different values were chosen for the threshold value, namely the mean low periodic discharge sQnp and the percentiles of flow duration curve Q90 and Q80. For each gauging station, the event with the largest deficit volume and duration, as well as the total annual deficit volume and the total duration of drought events for the individual year, were selected using different threshold values. The study’s results demonstrate that the choice of drought threshold can have a great impact on the results of runoff deficit analyses. The absolute values of the duration and volume of the runoff deficits increase with higher threshold values. Also the ratios between the results of the individual years change slightly when the threshold value changes. Regardless of the choice of the threshold, 2003 proved to be the driest year according to all four selected drought characteristics and for all three analysed gauging stations, followed by 1993, 1971, and 2012, respectively. However, drought is a specific phenomenon of a regional character and is reflected differently in the different regions of Slovenia.

More green and less blue water in the Alps during warmer summers

Climate change can reduce surface-water supply by enhancing evapotranspiration in forested mountains, especially during heatwaves. We investigate this ‘drought paradox’ for the European Alps using a 1,212-station database and hyper-resolution ecohydrological simulations to quantify blue (runoff) and green (evapotranspiration) water fluxes. During the 2003 heatwave, evapotranspiration in large areas over the Alps was above average despite low precipitation, amplifying the runoff deficit by 32% in the most runoff-productive areas (1,300–3,000 m above sea level). A 3 °C air temperature increase could enhance annual evapotranspiration by up to 100 mm (45 mm on average), which would reduce annual runoff at a rate similar to a 3% precipitation decrease. This suggests that green-water feedbacks—which are often poorly represented in large-scale model simulations—pose an additional threat to water resources, especially in dry summers. Despite uncertainty in the validation of the hyper-resolution ecohydrological modelling with observations, this approach permits more realistic predictions of mountain region water availability. Mountain forest drought can paradoxically increase evapotranspiration (green water), helping vegetation at the expense of runoff (blue water). This is quantified for the 2003 event in the European Alps, highlighting underappreciated vulnerability of blue-water resources to future warmer summers.

Water colour and climate

The impacts of climate change on the ecohydrology of forested mountain regions are uncertain. New high-resolution modelling suggests that during a hot, dry summer in the Alps, stressed vegetation capitalizes on downslope water subsidies, amplifying runoff deficits and further depleting water resources.

Future Hot and Dry Years Worsen Nile Basin Water Scarcity Despite Projected Precipitation Increases

AbstractCompound extremes—particularly hot and dry years—can reduce crop yields and result in acute water scarcity. These risks are particularly pronounced in the Upper Nile Basin, a chronically water stressed agricultural region that includes western Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Uganda. While the causes of humanitarian crises in the Nile Basin are complex and involve governance, conflict, and climate, we demonstrate that nearly all recent regional crop failures have occurred amid hot and dry conditions and low runoff supplies. Using an observational ensemble, we find that such hot and dry years have been more frequent in recent decades, driven by increasing regional temperatures. This trend is likely to continue despite climate model projections of increasing regional precipitation. By the late 21st century, the frequency of hot and dry years may rise by a factor of 1.5–3, even if warming is limited to 2 °C. Regional water scarcity will continue to be a chronic issue for the Upper Nile from population growth alone, but runoff deficits during future hot and dry years will amplify this effect, leaving an additional 5–15% of the future population facing water scarcity. Climate change, along with the region's complex water politics, dependence on subsistence agriculture, and history of geopolitical instability, places the region at risk of severe food and water shortages as hot and dry years become more frequent. Adaptation and climate‐resilient water management policies informed by an understanding of compound extremes will be essential to manage these risks.

Climate Change Amplification of Natural Drought Variability: The Historic Mid-Twentieth-Century North American Drought in a Warmer World

AbstractIn the mid-twentieth century (1948–57), North America experienced a severe drought forced by cold tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). If these SSTs recurred, it would likely cause another drought, but in a world substantially warmer than the one in which the original event took place. We use a 20-member ensemble of the GISS climate model to investigate the drought impacts of a repetition of the mid-twentieth-century SST anomalies in a significantly warmer world. Using observed SSTs and mid-twentieth-century forcings (Hist-DRGHT), the ensemble reproduces the observed precipitation deficits during the cold season (October–March) across the Southwest, southern plains, and Mexico and during the warm season (April–September) in the southern plains and the Southeast. Under analogous SST forcing and enhanced warming (Fut-DRGHT, ≈3 K above preindustrial), cold season precipitation deficits are ameliorated in the Southwest and southern plains and intensified in the Southeast, whereas during the warm season precipitation deficits are enhanced across North America. This occurs primarily from greenhouse gas–forced trends in mean precipitation, rather than changes in SST teleconnections. Cold season runoff deficits in Fut-DRGHT are significantly amplified over the Southeast, but otherwise similar to Hist-DRGHT over the Southwest and southern plains. In the warm season, however, runoff and soil moisture deficits during Fut-DRGHT are significantly amplified across the southern United States, a consequence of enhanced precipitation deficits and increased evaporative losses due to warming. Our study highlights how internal variability and greenhouse gas–forced trends in hydroclimate are likely to interact over North America, including how changes in both precipitation and evaporative demand will affect future drought.

Estimation and evaluation on the return period of flash flood for small mountainous watersheds in the Han River basin

The objectives of this study are to estimate the return period of flash flood and evaluate its appropriateness based on the actual observation events for small mountainous watersheds in the Han River basin. For these goals, Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) was estimated from 1-hr duration Threshold Runoff (TR) and Saturation Deficit (SD) of soil moisture which was derived from Sejong University Rainfall Runoff (SURR) model. Then, the return period of flash flood was calculated by comparing the rainfall quantile to the 1-hr duration rainfall that exceeded the FFG during the past period (2002-2010). Moreover, the appropriateness of the estimated return period of flash flood was evaluated by using the observation events from 2011 to 2016. The results of the return period of flash flood ranged from 1.1 to 19.9 years with a mean and a standard deviation of 1.6 and 1.1 years, respectively. Also, the result of the appropriateness indicated that 83% of the return periods derived from observation events were within the return period of flash flood range. Therefore, the estimated return period of flash flood could be considered as highly appropriate.

Evaluation and Hydrological Application of TRMM and GPM Precipitation Products in a Tropical Monsoon Basin of Thailand

Watershed runoff is essential for water management. However, runoff materials are lacking in poorly gauged catchments and not always accessible. Microwave remote sensing offers emerging capabilities for hydrological simulation. In this study based on multi-satellite retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products, and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) interpolated precipitation data, we simulated runoff using a variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model and studied the differences among the results. Then, we analyzed the impacts of the runoff on a moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer vegetation leaf area index (LAI) during dry seasons. The results showed that (1) IMERG V5 and TRMM products are capable of monitoring the night-day rainfall diurnal cycle and have higher correlations than the WMO daily observation interpolations. However, the WMO shows less overestimation of total precipitation than remote-sensing precipitation; (2) in the downstream, the TRMM shows better runoff simulation accuracy in the tributaries, and the WMO shows better results in the mainstreams. Therefore, at basin outlets in mainstreams, the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients of monthly runoff by the WMO are higher than the simulations by the TRMM; (3) for the whole basin during dry seasons, the LAI variation is correlated with the outlet runoff, which is similar to the correlation with three- to six-month accumulated precipitation. TRMM products can be used to depict both precipitation deficit and runoff deficit, which cause vegetation variations. Our research suggests the potential of microwave precipitation products for detailed watershed runoff simulations and water management.

Effects of Hydroclimatic Variability on the Spatial Dynamics of Ponds (Simenti, Kountadala and Oudassi) of the Gambia River Basin in the Niokolo Koba National Park (Senegal)

With climate change, West African watercourses have undergone profound changes with large runoff deficits, faster dryings and very severe low flows. These modifications have led to a sharp decrease in water resources and a drying up of some water bodies. This article evaluated the effects of hydroclimatic variability on the spatial dynamics of a few ponds (Simenti, Kountadala and Oudassi) in the Gambia Basin in the Niokolo Koba National Park, NKNP, (Senegal). Data from five sets of images are used for pond trend mapping (Landsat, Google Earth and Sentinel). The hydroclimatic data used in this study include precipitation, temperature, evaporation, and discharge data from the Gambia Basin subjected to trend (Mann-Kendall) and rupture (Pettitt) tests. The results show that the trend is positive and significant for temperatures and evaporation and negative and significant for precipitation at a 95% confidence level. The surface area of the ponds, from 40.3 ha in 1975, increased sharply to 79.3 ha in 1988, then rose slightly in 1999 with 80.2 ha and in 2010 with 83.4 ha before to shrink sharply from 67.8 ha in 2019 due to rainfall deficit and the expansion of aquatic vegetation. Recommendations were made on how to improve the problem. Faced with the scarcity and drying up of water in these ponds of Niokolo Koba Park, water transfer operations such as those noted with the Simenti pond to save animals, remain fundamental according to some conservatives.

Changing the retention properties of catchments and their influence on runoff under climate change

Many studies on drought consider precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) impacts. However, catchment water retention is a factor affecting the interception of precipitation and slowing down runoff which also plays a critical role in determining the risks of hydrological drought. The Budyko framework links retention to the partitioning of precipitation into runoff or evapotranspiration. Applied worldwide, we demonstrate that retention changes are the dominant contribution to measured runoff changes in 21 of 33 major catchments. Similarly, assessing climate simulations for the historical period suggests that models substantially underestimate observed runoff changes due to unrepresented water management processes. Climate models show that water retention (without direct water management) generally decreases by the end of the 21st century, except in dry central Asia and northwestern China. Such decreases raise runoff, mainly driven by precipitation intensity increases (RCP4.5 scenario) and additionally by CO2-induced stomata closure (RCP8.5). This mitigates runoff deficits (generally from raised PET under warming) by increasing global mean runoff from −2.77 mm yr−1 to +3.81 mm yr−1 (RCP4.5), and −6.98 mm yr−1 to +5.11 mm yr−1 (RCP8.5).

Analysis and projection of runoff variation in three Chinese rivers

Runoff variability is investigated separately for the Wei, the Bei, and the Qing Rivers in China with a focus on their respective differences in monthly flow patterns and flow duration curves (FDCs) between years with and without annual runoff deficit. The number of deficit runoff years increased in the Wei River and changed slightly in the Bei and Qing Rivers, respectively. Monthly flow variation patterns and FDCs differ between deficit and non-deficit years. The deficit years generally demonstrate earlier and more dispersed flow maxima. Deficit runoff years are contingent with the negative phase of the Polar-Eurasian Oscillation and vice versa, while generally they show contingency with the positive phase of the SST (Niño 3.4) and vice versa. The correlation between the human activity factors and the weights obtained by decomposing the runoff series into empirical orthogonal functions indicated that the human impact on the runoff variation was detectable: 22–25% in the Wei River, 28% in the Bei River, and negligible in the Qing River. We projected FDCs by weighting the distinctly different FDCs for deficit/non-deficit years according to several precipitation scenarios.

Satellite-Based Run-Off Model for Monitoring Drought in Peninsular Malaysia

Traditional in situ observation interpolation techniques that provide rainfall data from rain gauges have limitations because they are discrete point-based data records, which may not be sufficient to assess droughts from a spatiotemporal perspective. Considering this limitation, this study has developed a run-off model—a fully satellite-based method for monitoring drought in Peninsular Malaysia. The formulation of the run-off deficit uses a water balance equation based on satellite-based rainfall and evapotranspiration data extracted respectively from calibrated TRMM multi-satellites precipitation analysis data (TMPA) and moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer data (MODIS). The run-off deficit was calculated based on per pixel spatial scale and allowed to produce the continuous and regular run-off maps. The run-off model was tested and evaluated in a one drought year (2005) within a span of three years (2003–2005) over the Kelantan (3448 km2) and Hulu Perak (3672 km2) catchments of Peninsular Malaysia. The validation results show that (1) monthly TMPA rainfall and MODIS evapotranspiration data significantly improved after calibration; (2) satellite-based run-off data is not only strongly correlated with actual steam flow, but also with spatiotemporal variation of run-off in drought-affected forest catchments. The most severely drought-affected forest catchments that experienced the run-off deficits were Hulu Perak, Ulu Gading, Gunung Stong and Relai over Kelantan. The real time run-off change analysis shows that drought started in January and reached its peak in July of 2005. It was therefore demonstrated that this fully satellite-based run-off deficit model is as good as a conventional drought-monitoring indicator, and can provide not only drought distribution information, but it also can reflect the drought-induced impacts on stream flow, forest catchment and land-use.

Stochastic analysis of multi-year runoff, recharge, and climatic water deficit in geologically varying watersheds

Stochastic analysis of multi-year runoff, recharge, and climatic water deficit in geologically varying watersheds

Groundwater balance estimation in karst by using simple conceptual rainfall–runoff model

The objective of this work is the study of Opacac karst spring which geographically lies in Dalmatia (Croatia). Numerous studies have been carried out in karst aiming the investigation of groundwater regime. The karst spring hydrograph can reflect the groundwater regime and consequently the analysis is based on them. A simple conceptual rainfall–runoff model is used for the estimation of groundwater balance components including the influences of time-invariant catchment boundaries (Jukic and Denic-Jukic 2009). The proposed parameter estimation procedure merges the soil-moisture balance and the groundwater balance approaches to obtain the complete groundwater budget. The effective rainfall is calculated by using mathematical model based on soil-moisture balance equations, i.e. Palmer’s fluid mass balance method. The parameters of model of effective rainfall are determined by using simple conceptual rainfall–runoff model consisting of two linear reservoirs representing the fast and slow flow component of the recession. The weight coefficient between the fast and slow component is determined by using base flow index analysis of hydrograph. Recession coefficient of the slow flow component and the weight coefficient are determined from hydrograph analysis. Available data from nearby meteorological station includes daily average discharge, the amount of precipitation, the average temperature and the humidity from 1995 to 2010. The average catchment area is also estimated with the average yearly runoff deficit using Turc’s method and compared with the values obtained from the application of the rainfall–runoff model. Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency, root mean square error and Pearson’s correlation coefficient for simulated hydrograph are applied to assess the predictive power of model. Calculated groundwater balance shows that the Opacac spring aquifer contains a significant storage capacity. The application of series of linear reservoirs is a classical and common technique, but the proposed simple approach enables the estimation of the components of groundwater balance in karst areas.

Temperature impacts on the water year 2014 drought in California

AbstractCalifornia is experiencing one of the worst droughts on record. We use a hydrological model and risk assessment framework to understand the influence of temperature on the water year (WY) 2014 drought in California and examine the probability that this drought would have been less severe if temperatures resembled the historical climatology. Our results indicate that temperature played an important role in exacerbating the WY 2014 drought severity. We found that if WY 2014 temperatures resembled the 1916–2012 climatology, there would have been at least an 86% chance that winter snow water equivalent and spring‐summer soil moisture and runoff deficits would have been less severe than the observed conditions. We also report that the temperature forecast skill in California for the important seasons of winter and spring is negligible, beyond a lead time of 1 month, which we postulate might hinder skillful drought prediction in California.