Runoff Changes Research Articles

Sensitivity of Runoff to Climatic Factors and the Attribution of Runoff Variation in the Upper Shule River, North-West China

Climate change and human activities exert significant impact on the mechanism of runoff generation and confluence. Comprehending the reasons of runoff change is crucial for the sustainable development of water resources. Taking the Upper Shule River as the research area, the M-K test and the moving t test were used to diagnose the runoff mutation time. Furthermore, the slope changing ratio of cumulative quantity method (SCRCQ), climate elasticity method, and Budyko equation were utilized to quantitatively evaluate the impacts and contribution rates of climate change and human activities. The following results were obtained: (1) The Upper Shule River experienced a significant increase in runoff from 1972 to 2021, with 1998 marking the year of abrupt change. (2) The runoff sensitivity showed a downward trend from 1972 to 2021. The main factor affecting the decrease in runoff sensitivity was the characteristic parameters of underlying surface (n), followed by precipitation (P), while the influence of potential evapotranspiration (ET0) was the weakest. (3) The response of runoff changes to runoff sensitivity and influencing factors were 90.32% and 9.68%, respectively. (4) The results of three attribution methods indicated that climate change was the primary factor causing the alteration of runoff in the Upper Shule River. The research results supplement the hydrological change mechanisms of the Upper Shule River and provide a scientific basis for future water resources management and flood control measures.

Changes in Surface Runoff and Temporal Dispersion in a Restored Montane Watershed on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Surface runoff is a major component of the hydrological cycle, and it is essential for supporting the ecosystem services provided by grassland and forest ecosystems. It is of practical importance to understand the mechanisms and the dynamic processes of runoff in a river’s basin, and in this study, we focused on the restored montane Pailugou Basin in the Qilian Mountains, Gansu Province, China, since its water status is extremely important for the large arid area and local economies therein. Our purpose was to determine the annual variation in the surface runoff in the Pailugou Basin because it is important to understand the influence of climate fluctuations on surface water resources and the economy of the basin. In addition, little is known about the annual variations in precipitation and runoff in this region of the world. Daily atmospheric precipitation, air temperature and runoff data from 2000 to 2019 were analyzed by the calculation of the uneven annual distribution of surface runoff, the calculation of the complete adjustment coefficient, and the vector accumulation expressed by the concentration degree. We also used the cumulative anomaly approach to determine the interannual variation trend of runoff, while the change trend was quantified by the sliding average method. Finally, we used the Mann–Kendall mutation test method and regression analysis to establish the time-series trend for precipitation and runoff and to determine the period of abrupt runoff changes. The results indicated concentrated and positive distributions of surface runoff on an annual basis, with a small degree of dispersion, and an explicit concentration of extreme flows. The relative variation ranges exhibited a decreasing trend, and the distribution of the surface runoff gradually was uniform over the year. The runoff was highest from July to September (85% of the annual total). We also determined that annual surface runoff in the basin fluctuated over the 20-year period but showed an overall increasing trend, increasing by 3.94 × 105 m3, with an average increase rate of 0.42 × 105 m3 every ten years. From 2005 to 2014, the annual runoff and the proportion of runoff in the flood season (July to September) to the annual runoff fluctuated greatly. The correlation between the runoff and precipitation was significant (r = 0.839, p < 0.05), whereas the correlation between air temperature and surface runoff was low (r = 0.421, p < 0.05).

A multiscale attribution framework for separating the effects of cascade and individual reservoirs on runoff

Climate change and human activities have great impacts on runoff. With the gradual development of cascade hydropower in the watershed, the reservoirs have increasingly impacted runoff. However, the current study mainly focuses on quantifying the impacts of human activities and climate change on runoff, lacking the exploration of the impacts of cascade reservoirs, and the attribution results are relatively rough. Therefore, this study utilized data-driven models to establish a runoff attribution framework with the basic steps of “interval runoff prediction and scheduling rule extraction”, which achieved the spatial scale separation of the impacts of cascade and individual reservoirs on the runoff, and the analysis of the impacts of each factor at multiple time scales. Taking the upper reaches of the Yangtze River mainstem as an example, we verified the applicability and accuracy of the framework, explored the impacts of climate change, human activities (without reservoir scheduling), and reservoir scheduling on runoff during the period 1980–2018. The research found: (1) Compared to the base period 1980–2005, the average multi-year runoff changes at Pingshan Station (during 2013–2018), Yichang Station (during 2006–2012) and Yichang Station (during 2013–2018) were − 2.61 %, −4.33 % and − 0.89 %, respectively, with decreasing, increasing, and flattening trends over time. (2) Reservoir scheduling is the main factor leading to runoff change, showing negative impacts during flood season and positive impacts during non-flood season. (3) Under the control domain of single and cascade reservoirs, the annual scale impacts of climate change, human activities, and reservoir scheduling on runoff accounted for approximately 1:1:8 and 2:2:6, respectively, showing a complex nonlinear relationship between the impacts of single and cascade reservoirs on runoff. This study provides ideas for quantitatively assessing the impacts of cascade reservoirs on runoff and provide a basis for comprehensively assessing the ecosystem and socio-economic impacts of reservoirs on future runoff changes.

Study on the Evolvement Trend Process of Hydrological Elements in Luanhe River Basin, China

Over the past 50 years, there have been significant changes in the runoff process in the Luanhe River basin, exacerbating the scarcity of water resources and their spatiotemporal variability. Therefore, conducting research on the characteristics, trends, and cycles of runoff changes in the Luanhe River basin is of great theoretical and practical significance. This study selected rainfall data from the hydrological stations in Weichang, Chengde, and Qinhuangdao in the Luanhe River basin, covering the period from 1985 to 2008, as well as runoff data from the Hanjiaying, Sandaohezi, and Chengde stations. Based on linear trend regression analysis, the Mann–Kendall rank correlation test, Spearman correlation test, Mann–Kendall method, and Mann–Whitney–Pettitt change point analysis method, this study analyzed the trends in water quantity changes and their change points in the Luanhe River basin. The results of the precipitation at the Weichang and Chengde stations show a non-significant rising trend, remaining relatively stable with slightly increases. Conversely, the precipitation of Qinhuangdao Station shows a decreasing trend over time, albeit non-significant. Considering the detailed diagnostic results from both the Mann–Kendall (M-K) and MWP methods, the change point for Weichang precipitation is identified as 2007, while for Chengde, it spans from 1999 to 2002, and for Qinhuangdao, it is around 1997. The trend of the runoff series of three stations shows a significant decreasing trend and strong significance, and the change point for the annual runoff at the Hanjiaying station and the Sandaohezi station is identified as 2006, and for the Chengde station, the primary change point is 2006, with a secondary change point around 2002. The findings of this research can provide scientific references for the rational development and utilization of regional water resources.

Coupling Changes in Runoff and Sediment and Their Relationships with Erosion Energy and Underlying Surface in the Wuding River Basin, China

Investigating the changes in the runoff and sediment coupling relationship in the Middle Yellow River Basin of China can not only deepen the understanding of soil loss control in arid areas, but also help solve key issues of regional ecological protection. Since the 1960s, soil- and water-conservation projects have been implemented in the Middle Yellow River Basin, inducing a significant reduction in runoff and sediment and changes in the relationship between runoff and sediment. The study identified the change points of coupling relationship between runoff and sediment in the Wuding River Basin (WRB) by constructing a diagnostic method based on coupling coordination degree and the Pettitt test; the study validated this using the Copula function and analyzed the impacts of erosion energy and underlying surface factors. The results showed the following: (1) the method based on coupling coordination degree and the Pettit test could accurately reflect the coupling relationship of runoff and sediment and identify two change points (1971 and 1996); (2) runoff and sediment in the WRB decreased gradually over three periods (P1, 1960–1970; P2, 1971–1995; P3, 1996–2020), with an average annual runoff of 15.34 × 108, 10.72 × 108, and 8.32 × 108 m3 and average annual sediment load of 1.84 × 108, 0.82 × 108, and 0.32 × 108 t, respectively; (3) the maximum possible joint design value of runoff and sediment under different return periods in P1 were all the highest, followed by P2 and P3, and the larger the return period, the higher the maximum possible joint design value; (4) runoff erosion power could promote runoff and sediment in PE (1960–2020), P1, P2 and P3 at a significant level, check dams and terrace could decrease runoff and sediment significantly in PE, and the highest contribution to runoff reduction was check dam (95.4%), while the highest contribution to sediment reduction was REP (93.8%). The study can provide a new way to analyze the changes in the runoff and sediment relationship and provide scientific support for runoff and sediment regulation in the Middle Yellow River Basin.

Urbanization enhances channel and surface runoff: A quantitative analysis using both physical and empirical models over the Yangtze River basin

Urbanization has become an irreversible trend and is even more rapid in flood-prone area. However, the responses of both channel runoff and surface runoff to the urbanization and the underlying mechanisms still deserve more in-depth exploration within urban extents with limited data availability. Accordingly, we conducted a comprehensive quantitative analysis of the urbanization effects on channel and surface runoff from both statistical and model-based perspectives over three major urban agglomerations (i.e., Chengyu (CY), middle region of Yangtze River (MRYR), Yangtze River Delta (YRD)) in the Yangtze River Basin. The long-term high-resolution channel and surface runoff under different urbanization scenarios were simulated using both WRF-Hydro and SCS-CN models by integrating multiple remotely sensed, reanalysis, and in-situ datasets. Results demonstrated that the channel runoff increased by 4.4%, 5%, and 12.08% in CY, MRYR, and YRD urban agglomerations, respectively. Meanwhile, the urbanization also contributed to 30%, 21.4%, and 17.7% of the surface runoff changes in three urban agglomerations. Based on the high-resolution local climate zone (LCZ), our results highlighted that the high-rise and middle-rise buildings and compact-arranged regions were more prone to accumulating surface runoff and trigger flooding events due to the weaker infiltration capacity of land surface with the densely distribution of impervious surface. Further machine learning based investigation and case analysis also explored the potential influencing factors and mechanisms of the impact of urbanization on channel and surface runoff. Results in the current research show further evidence that policy makers of urban planning and management need to consider and ensure societal preparedness for extreme runoff and flooding events.

Runoff Simulation of the Upstream Watershed of the Feiling Hydrological Station in the Qinhe River Based on the SWAT Model

This study examined the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff within the Feiling Hydrological Station watershed in the Qinhe River basin, utilizing the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. Several climate change and extreme land-use scenarios were evaluated for their effects on runoff. Results demonstrated the SWAT model’s suitability for runoff simulation in the watershed, revealing a negative correlation between runoff and temperature changes, and a positive correlation with precipitation changes. Significantly, runoff responses to precipitation variations of ±10% and ±20% were more marked than those to temperature changes of ±1 °C and ±2 °C. In scenarios of extreme woodland and fallow land, runoff decreased, whereas in scenarios of extreme cropland and grassland, it increased, particularly in the extreme farmland scenario. The study’s findings are important for the sensible management of soil and water resources and the enhancement of the natural environment in the studied area.

Hydrological Projections in the Third Pole Using Artificial Intelligence and an Observation‐Constrained Cryosphere‐Hydrology Model

AbstractThe water resources of the Third Pole (TP), highly sensitive to climate change and glacier melting, significantly impact the water and food security of millions in Asia. However, projecting future spatial‐temporal runoff changes for TP's mountainous basins remains a formidable challenge. Here, we've leveraged the long short‐term memory model (LSTM) to craft a grid‐scale artificial intelligence (AI) model named LSTM‐grid. This model has enabled the production of hydrological projections for the seven major river basins of TP. The LSTM‐grid model integrates monthly precipitation, air temperature, and total glacier mass changes (total_GMC) data at a 0.25‐degree model grid. Training the LSTM‐grid model employed gridded historical monthly runoff and evapotranspiration data sets generated by an observation‐constrained cryosphere‐hydrology model at the headwaters of seven TP river basins during 2000–2017. Our results demonstrate the LSTM grid's effectiveness and usefulness, exhibiting a Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient exceeding 0.92 during the verification periods (2013–2017). Moreover, river basins in the monsoon region exhibited a higher rate of runoff increase compared to those in the westerlies region. Intra‐annual projections indicated notable increases in spring runoff, especially in basins where glacier meltwater significantly contributes to runoff. Additionally, the LSTM‐grid model aptly captures the runoff changes before and after the turning points of glacier melting, highlighting the growing influence of precipitation on runoff after reaching the maximum total_GMC. Therefore, the LSTM‐grid model offers a fresh perspective for understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of water resources in high‐mountain glacial regions by tapping into AI's potential to drive scientific discovery and provide reliable data.

Assessment of runoff changes in the sub-basin of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin, China based on multiple methods

Assessment of runoff changes in the sub-basin of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin, China based on multiple methods

Response of Runoff Change to Soil and Water Conservation Measures in the Jing River Catchment of China

Soil and water conservation measures (SWCMs) are vital in reducing runoff and ultimately affect water security and regional development. However, previous studies have mainly focused on the impact of a single SWCM, neglecting to distinguish between the effects of different SWCMs on runoff reduction. A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was established in the Jing River catchment to identify the responses to runoff changes resulting from climate change and human activities. The model was used to quantitatively analyse the impact of different SWCMs on runoff reduction. The results indicated that human activities contributed significantly more to runoff reduction than climate change. The reduction benefits of different unit area changes for each SWCM on discharge, surface runoff and water yield at the outlet were ranked as follows: changing cultivated land to forest land > changing cultivated land to grassland > building terraces on a 5–15° slope > building terraces on a 5–25° slope > building terraces on a 15–25° slope. Regional authorities should comprehensively consider the effects of various SWCMs on water reduction, and optimise the layout of vegetation and terracing measures, to support the efficient utilization of water resources in the Jing River catchment.

Statistical Analysis and Scenario Modeling of Non-Stationary Runoff Change in the Loess Plateau: A Novel Application of the Generalized Additive Model in Location, Scale and Shape

The hydrological series in the Loess Plateau region has exhibited shifts in trend, mean, and/or variance as the environmental conditions have changed, indicating a departure from the assumption of stationarity. As the variations accumulate, the compound effects caused by the driving variables on runoff variations grow complex and interactive, posing a substantial risk to water security and the promotion of high-quality development in regions or river basins. This study focuses on the Tuwei River Basin in the Loess Plateau, which experiences significant changes in vegetation coverage and minimal human disturbance, and examines the cross-driving relationship between the runoff change and its driving variables (including hydrometeorological and environmental variables). A quantitative statistical analysis method based on the GAMLSS is then developed to estimate the interacting effects of changes in the driving variables and their contribution to runoff changes. Finally, various anticipated scenarios are used to simulate the changes in driving variables and runoff disturbances. The findings indicate the following: (1) The developed GU, LO, and NO distribution-based GAMLSSs provide a notable advantage in effectively capturing the variations in groundwater storage variables, actual evapotranspiration, and underlying surface parameters, as well as accurately estimating the impacts of other relevant variables. (2) The precipitation and groundwater storage variables showed predominantly positive contributions to the runoff change, but actual evapotranspiration had an adverse effect. The changes in underlying surface parameters, particularly since 2000, increase actual evapotranspiration, while decreasing groundwater storage, resulting in a progressive decrease in runoff as their contribution grows. (3) The scenario simulation results reveal that alterations to the underlying surface have a substantial influence on the evolution of runoff in the Tuwei River Basin. Additionally, there are cross-effects between the impact of various driving variables on runoff, potentially compounding the complexity of inconsistent changes in runoff sequences.

Analysis of Changes in Runoff and Sediment Load and Their Attribution in the Kuye River Basin of the Middle Yellow River Based on the Slope Change Ratio of Cumulative Quantity Method

Climate change and human activities exert significant influence on the water–sediment relationship in arid and semi-arid regions. Therefore, comprehending the underlying mechanisms is crucial for the effective management of water and soil resources, as well as integrated watershed management. This research focuses on the Kuye River watershed (KYH_W) in the middle reaches of the Yellow River in China, along with its sub-watersheds Wangdaohengtazi (WDHT_SW) and Xinmiaosi (XM_SW). This paper utilizes the Mann–Kendall non-parametric test and the double cumulative curve method to examine the interannual trends of runoff, sediment transport, precipitation, temperature, and NDVI factors. Furthermore, the method of the slope change ratio of cumulative quantity (SCRCQ) is utilized to quantitatively evaluate the impacts and contribution rates of climate change and human activities on water–sediment changes within each watershed. The results are as follows: (1) From 1969 to 2019, the entire watershed experienced a significant decrease in both runoff and sediment transport, with 1997 marking the year of abrupt change. However, following 2012, the KYH_W and WDHT_SW exhibited a noticeable rebound in runoff. (2) Human activities predominantly contribute to the reduction in water and sediment in the watershed. (3) After the abrupt change, between 1998 and 2011, the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to the annual runoff reduction in the entire KYH_W reached 33% and 64%, respectively. Moreover, these rates for sediment transport reduction reached 26% and 74%, respectively. Subsequently, after 2012, the contribution rates of both factors to the increase in watershed runoff reached 29% and 71%, respectively. Factors other than the NDVI, within human activities, played a dominant role in augmenting the watershed’s runoff. (4) Prior to 2011, changes in vegetation cover resulting from the Grain for Green Program, as measured by the NDVI, emerged as the primary factor responsible for reduced runoff in the watershed. Conversely, factors other than the NDVI assumed dominance in reducing sediment transport. The SCRCQ method offers a quantitative approach to assessing water–sediment changes. Based on this method, the study further underscores the substantial impacts of climate change and human activities on variations in runoff and sediment transport within the KYH_W in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. Notably, the water–sediment changes in the KYH_W exhibit distinct stage-wise and spatial discrepancies, which warrant increased attention in future research endeavors.

Mechanisms and Applications of Nature-Based Solutions for Stormwater Control in the Context of Climate Change: A Review

Nature-based solutions (NbSs) are considered to form an innovative stormwater management approach that has living resolutions grounded in natural processes and structures. NbSs offer many other environmental benefits over traditional grey infrastructure, including reduced air pollution and climate change mitigation. This review predominantly centers on the hydrological aspect of NbSs and furnishes a condensed summary of the collective understanding about NbSs as an alternatives for stormwater management. In this study, which employed the CIMO (Context, Intervention, Mechanism, Outcome) framework, a corpus of 187 NbS-related publications (2000–2023) extracted from the Web of Science database were used, and we expounded upon the origins, objectives, and significance of NbSs in urban runoff and climate change, and the operational mechanisms of NbSs (including green roofs, permeable pavements, bioretention systems, and constructed wetlands), which are widely used in urban stormwater management, were also discussed. Additionally, the efficacy of NbSs in improving stormwater quality and quantity is discussed in depth in this study. In particular, the critical role of NbSs in reducing nutrients such as TSS, TN, TP, and COD and heavy metal pollutants such as Fe, Cu, Pb, and Zn is emphasized. Finally, the main barriers encountered in the promotion and application of NbSs in different countries and regions, including financial, technological and physical, regulatory, and public awareness, are listed, and future directions for improving and strategizing NbS implementation are proposed. This review gathered knowledge from diverse sources to provide an overview of NbSs, enhancing the comprehension of their mechanisms and applications. It underscores specific areas requiring future research attention.

Understanding future hydrologic challenges: Modelling the impact of climate change on river runoff in central Italy

Central Italy’s diverse ecosystems and landscapes are susceptible to the Mediterranean climate change, affecting water resources and riverine systems. Managing these resources is crucial for the nation’s sustainable development and resilience. This research assesses potential long-term climate change impacts on river runoff in central Italy’s highly regulated Aterno-Pescara River watershed. We simulated current and future river runoff using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+). Climate projections from 5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under two emissions scenarios are used to quantify potential runoff and drought characteristic changes in SWAT+ to investigate future (2015 – 2100) climate change impacts on river runoff. All GCMs predicted increasing daily temperature (up to 0.6 °C decade−1 at 95 % confidence level) and decreasing precipitation trends (−16.4 mm decade−1), resulting in negative river runoff trends (−0.036 m3s−1 decade−1). Uncertainties exist regarding variable magnitudes among GCMs and scenarios. Analyzing 12-month standardized precipitation and runoff drought indices using projections data revealed a strong correlation between drought indices (Pearson correlation coefficient ranges between 0.63 − 0.93 among GCMs). The run-sum technique for both indices showed potential frequent, severe, and prolonged future droughts, with meteorological droughts possibly lasting up to 105 months (severity 163) and hydrological droughts exceeding 100 months (severity over 150). This study provides crucial insights for central Italy’s policymakers, emphasizing the need for strategies addressing climate change impacts on water resources for future sustainability.

Decreased river runoff on the Mongolian Plateau since around 2000

ContextMongolian Plateau is one of the largest contingent arid and semi-arid regions of the world. Rivers on the plateau provide vital water for millions of indigenous Mongolian people and numerous endangered wildlife, but are increasingly disturbed by climate change and human activities. Yet, long-term changes in river runoff across the plateau remain poorly studied due to data unavailability.ObjectivesThis study aimed to analyze the temporal trends in gauged river runoff on the Mongolian Plateau, identify drivers of the observed changes, and evaluate CMIP6 models' performance in simulating historical runoff changes across the plateau.MethodsWe compiled possibly the largest database of long-term (20 - 71 years) river runoff for the plateau comprising measurements over 30 major rivers. Statistical analyses were conducted to assess trends in river runoff and correlations between runoff and climatic variables. Additionally, we applied the Budyko curve framework to identify the influence of human activities on river runoff in specific basins. Furthermore, we compared ground-measured runoff data with simulations from CMIP6 models to evaluate the ability of CMIP6 models to replicate runoff dynamics in typical arid and semi-arid regions.ResultsWe observed pervasive and abrupt reduction in runoff in 21 out of the 30 rivers within 5 years before or after the year of 2000. Variations in river runoff were most significantly caused by changes in total precipitation (TP). In particular, 27 rivers experienced abrupt TP changes around 2000, and there was a significant positive correlation between annual fluctuations in TP and river runoff for 18 rivers. In addition to climate factors, the influence of human activities was identified in certain basins. The CMIP6 simulations failed to capture the abrupt changes in runoff occurred pervasively across the plateau around 2000.ConclusionsAround 2000, major rivers on the Mongolian Plateau, especially in Inner Mongolia, experienced runoff declines, primarily due to TP changes. Human activities like dam construction and water diversion further influenced local runoff. CMIP6 historical runoff simulations were inaccurate across the plateau, highlighting the difficulty of simulating river runoff in this critical region. Our study could contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the water resource changes on the Mongolian Plateau, with direct implications for enhancing ecological conservation and management practice.

Winter/Spring Runoff Is Earlier, More Protracted, and Increasing in Volume in the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin

AbstractWinter/spring runoff has changed in streams worldwide due to climate change, particularly in temperate areas where winter/spring streamflow depends on snowmelt. Such changes potentially affect receiving waters through altered nutrient loading and mixing patterns. The Laurentian Great Lakes are an important freshwater resource and have experienced a myriad of impacts due to climate change. We analyzed 70 years of stream gauge data in the Great Lakes Basin to test for changes in timing, duration, and amount of winter/spring runoff during the period 1950–2019. We found strong evidence for earlier runoff in each of the Great Lakes except Lake Erie, protracted winter/spring runoff throughout the Great Lakes Basin, and a higher runoff depth during the winter‐spring period over time for all watersheds except Lake Superior. Lake Ontario had the greatest change in the date by which 50% of the Jan–May runoff had been discharged (6 days earlier from 1950 to 2019). For winter/spring runoff duration, the most extreme change was observed in Lake Erie (increase of 19 days), and for runoff depth, the greatest change was in the Lake Huron Basin (increase of 3.3 cm). Results were similar for natural and impacted streams. Our results demonstrate dramatic changes in runoff patterns over the last seven decades in the Great Lakes Basin concomitant with previously published changes in precipitation and snowpack. Shifts toward earlier, more protracted, and more voluminous runoff likely change nutrient loading and mixing patterns that influence primary producers, particularly in the nearshore areas of the Great Lakes.

Links between seasonal suprapermafrost groundwater, the hydrothermal change of the active layer, and river runoff in alpine permafrost watersheds

Abstract. The seasonal dynamic of the suprapermafrost groundwater significantly affects the runoff generation and confluence in permafrost basins and is a leading issue that must urgently be addressed in hydrological research in cold and alpine regions. In this study, the seasonal dynamic process of the suprapermafrost groundwater level (SGL), vertical gradient changes of soil temperature (ST), moisture content in the active layer (AL), and river level changes were analyzed at four permafrost watersheds in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau using comparative analysis and the nonlinear correlation evaluation method. The impact of freeze–thaw processes on seasonal SGL and the links between SGL and surface runoff were also investigated. The SGL process in a hydrological year can be divided into four periods: (A) a rapid falling period (October to mid-November), (B) a stable low-water period (late November to May), (C) a rapid rising period (approximately June), and (D) a stable high-water period (July to September), which synchronously respond to seasonal variations in soil moisture and temperature in the AL. The characteristics and causes of SGL changes significantly varied during these four periods. The freeze–thaw process of the AL regulated SGL and surface runoff in permafrost watersheds. During period A, with rapid AL freezing, the ST had a dominant impact on the SGL. In period B, the AL was entirely frozen due to the stably low ST, while the SGL dropped to the lowest level with small changes. During period C, ST in the deep soil layers of AL (below 50 cm depth) significantly impacted the SGL (nonlinear correlation coefficient R2 > 0.74, P < 0.05), whereas the SGL change in the shallow soil layer (0–50 cm depth) showed a closer association with soil moisture content. Rainfall was the major cause for the stable high SGL during period D. In addition, the SGLs in periods C and D were closely linked to the retreat and flood processes of river runoff. The SGL contributed approximately 57.0 %–65.8 % of the river runoff changes in the period D. These findings will help to facilitate future hydrological research in the permafrost basins and the development and utilization of water resources in cold and alpine regions.

Glaciers determine the sensitivity of hydrological processes to perturbed climate in a large mountainous basin on the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract. The major rivers on the Tibetan Plateau supply important freshwater resources to riparian regions but have been undergoing significant climate change in recent decades. Understanding the sensitivities of hydrological processes to climate change is important for water resource management, but large divergences exist in previous studies because of the uncertainties of hydrological models and climate projection data. Meanwhile, the spatial pattern of local hydrological sensitivities was poorly explored despite the strong heterogeneity on the Tibetan Plateau. This study adopted the climate perturbation method to analyze the hydrological sensitivities of a typical large mountainous basin (Yarlung Tsangpo River, YTR) to climate change. We utilized the tracer-aided hydrological model Tsinghua Representative Elementary Watershed-Tracer-aided version (THREW-T) to simulate the hydrological and cryospheric processes in the YTR basin. Multiple datasets and internal stations were used to validate the model to provide confidence in the baseline simulation and the sensitivity analysis. Results indicated that (1) the THREW-T model performed well in simulating the streamflow, snow cover area (SCA), glacier mass balance (GMB) and stream water isotope, ensuring good representation of the key cryospheric processes and a reasonable estimation of the runoff components. The model performed acceptably in simulating the streamflow at eight internal stations located in the mainstream and two major tributaries, indicating that the spatial pattern of hydrological processes was reflected by the model. (2) Increasing temperature led to decreasing annual runoff, smaller inter-annual variation, more even intra-annual distribution and an earlier maximum runoff. It also influenced the runoff regime by increasing the contributions of rainfall and glacier melt overland runoff but decreasing the subsurface runoff and snowmelt overland runoff. Increasing precipitation had the opposite effect to increasing temperature. (3) The local runoff change in response to increasing temperature varied significantly, with a changing rate of −18.6 % to 54.3 % for 5∘ of warming. The glacier area ratio (GAR) was the dominant factor in the spatial pattern of hydrological sensitivities to both perturbed temperature and precipitation. Some regions had a non-monotonic runoff change rate in response to climate perturbation, which represented the most dynamic regions within the basin, as they kept shifting between energy- and water-limited stages. The GAR and mean annual precipitation (MAP) of the non-monotonic regions had a linear relation and formed the boundary of regions with different runoff trends in the GAR–MAP plot.

The ecological–hydrological regime of the Han River basin under changing conditions: The coupled influence of human activities and climate change

AbstractBecause of the confluence of human activities and climate change, the hydrological regime in the Han River basin has substantially evolved, necessitating a multi‐faceted, quantitative analysis of the causative factors. Employing cross‐wavelet analysis, we examined nonlinear relationships between runoff and meteorological variables. Additionally, we assessed hydrological indicators via the IHA index and RVA, then quantified the drivers of runoff variations across different time scales using the Budyko hypothesis and a Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) model. The findings reveal the presence of sustained resonance periods within the climate‐runoff system, notably concentrated in 9‐ to 15‐month intervals during the years 1985–1994, 1995–2012, and 2014–2018, with a confidence level of 95%. Overall, the basin exhibited moderate change (41.66%), with 15 indicators displaying varying degrees of moderate to high transformation. These shifts underscore significant ecosystem transformations. The influence of driving factors on runoff varies across temporal scales. On an annual scale, human activities predominantly shape runoff changes (52.35%), while meteorological factors contribute significantly (47.65%). Conversely, at the monthly scale, climate change emerges as the dominant influence on runoff patterns in June and September, with human activities maintaining a principal role in other months, notably exceeding 90% even in November.

Runoff change in the Yellow River Basin of China from 1960 to 2020 and its driving factors

Runoff change in the Yellow River Basin of China from 1960 to 2020 and its driving factors