Running Scenarios Research Articles

Auditory Messages for Intersection Movement Assist (IMA) Systems: Effects of Speech- and Nonspeech-Based Cues.

The objective of this study was to assess the effects of different warning messages for an Intersection Movement Assist (IMA) based on drivers' ability to avoid a potential safety hazard. An IMA system can detect hazards and warn drivers when it is unsafe to enter an intersection. The effects of different warning information conveyed by these systems are still unknown. A driving simulator study with 80 participants was conducted with a red light running (RLR) scenario using a 5 (warnings) x 2 (training) between-subject design. IMA warnings included the messages "Danger," "Brake now," "Vehicle on your left," a beep, and no IMA warning. Training was provided to half of the participants. Analysis of variance and logistic regression models were used to examine differences in drivers' avoidance behavior. The analyses showed that all tested warning messages can significantly enhance drivers' avoidance performance. Significant differences were observed in crash occurrence, avoidance behavior (i.e., reaction time and speed change), and eye movements (i.e., fixation pattern and time to first fixation). The effects of training also differed given the warning message provided. The "Brake now" message performed best in reducing crash involvement and prompted better avoidance performance. The "Danger" and "Vehicle on your left" messages improved drivers' hazard detection ability. The training showed a potential to enhance the effectiveness of nonspeech warning messages. The findings of this study can help designers and engineers better design IMA warning messages for RLR scenarios.

Dynamic Responses of Soils around a One-Hole Double-Track Tunnel with the Metro Train Meeting

The single-hole double-track shield tunnel with a large diameter has been one of the optimized schemes for those Metro meeting tunnels crossing long water areas. Compared with single-hole single-track tunnels, train-meeting scenarios occur in single-hole double-track tunnels, which results in a greater dynamic loading and a longer action time. By far, the thorough understanding of the dynamic response and liquefiability of the soils around the single-hole double-track tunnels, when crossing liquefiable soil layers, is still lacked. In this paper, a typical profile of Nanjing Metro Line 10, of the crossing-river section near Jiangxinzhou Station, is taken as an example. Based on the multibody dynamics, we established the train-rail coupling model to obtain the train dynamic load. Subsequently, in view of the single running scenario and four typical meeting scenarios, the train-tunnel-soil FEM model is developed to analyse the dynamical responses of the soils around the tunnel. The results indicate the vertical acceleration of the tunnel substrata exhibits an exponential attenuation trend with an increase of the distance; the horizontal acceleration of the ground surface exhibits an enlarged area within 10–25 m from the tunnel centerline. Also, the displacement of the soil layer under the tunnel increases cyclically in the period of the Metro train passing and rebounds slowly after the train passes. When the wheels of two Metro trains act simultaneously, the peak compression strain increases superimposedly; when the act is out of sync, the peak compression strain occurs concentrated and significant increase does not occur. Moreover, the larger the vibration amplitude the Metro train causes, the greater the excess pore water pressure occurs. Beyond a certain depth range, the influence of the vibration vanishes. The ratio of the maximal pore water pressure to the total stress is less than 1, suggesting that liquefaction does not occur in the silty-fine sand soil layer beneath the tunnel. The research results can be used to estimate the longitudinal differential settlement under long-term operation conditions and be helpful in regulating running speed of the Metro trains and planning the maintenance measures for the track flatness of the tunnel.

Time-resolved aerodynamic loads on high-speed trains during running on a tunnel–bridge–tunnel infrastructure under crosswind

A high-speed train will likely experience hazardous driving environments because of the transient effect of complex airflow condition when the train runs on the infrastructure scenario consisting of the tunnel–bridge–tunnel under crosswind. The evolution of aerodynamic loads and flow structure is investigated by numerical simulations. In these simulations, the arrangement of an infrastructural scenario refers to a real prototype under construction. Results indicate the flow structure and pressure distribution around a train change from a symmetrical state in the tunnel to a remarkable asymmetry state in the bridge within 0.1 s. This phenomenon causes a sharp aerodynamic shock on the train body. The coupling effect of the crosswind environment and the transformation of the train running scenario will likely affect the transient aerodynamic response. The maximum values of different aerodynamic loads exhibit time-resolved discrepancy when a train runs in ISTBT. The transient characteristics of the aerodynamic loads strengthen with the increase in wind speed but weaken with the increase in train speed. Such characteristics will likely deteriorate further if the wind direction is in the opposite direction relative to that of a moving train.

A seascape-scale habitat model to support management of fishing impacts on benthic ecosystems

Minimizing fishing impacts on seafloor ecosystems is a growing focus of ocean management; however, few quantitative tools exist to guide seascape-scale habitat management. To meet these needs, we developed a model to assess benthic ecosystem impacts from fishing gear contact. The habitat impacts model is cast in discrete time and can accommodate overlapping fisheries as well as incorporate gear-specific contact dynamics. We implemented the model in the North Pacific using fishing data from 2003 to 2017, estimating that habitat in 3.1% of the 1.2 million km2study area was disturbed at the end of the simulation period. A marked decline in habitat disturbance was evident since 2010, attributable to a single regulatory gear change that lifted trawl gear components off the seafloor. Running scenarios without these gear modifications showed these policies might have contributed to a 24% reduction in habitat disturbance since their implementation. Ultimately, model outputs provide direct estimates of the spatial and temporal trends of habitat effects from fishing — a key component of regulatory policies for many of the world’s fisheries.

DETERMINING ORDER DELIVERY DATE BY REVENUE APPROACH: A CASE STUDY WITH NONWOVEN TEXTILE MANUFACTURERS IN TRC1 REGION

Nonwoven textile materials are used as intermediate raw materials in various sectors such as cleaning, healthcare and automotive. These products are produced according to the demand because they are requested in different compositions, colors and weights. It is necessary to use the capacity efficiently in the nonwoven textile technology which has high investment costs and high production capacity in order to attain company objectives. In this study, a decision support system for nonwoven textile firms was developed so that they obtain more order revenue fromcustomer orders. In this software application developed, orders are sorted in 7 different ways based on Moora and linear function. The total order revenues to be obtained from each ranking and the delivery dates of sorted jobsare calculated and presented to the user for decision support purposes. In addition, this software can also record the operator's planned maintenance data. In the present study, the decision support system was run with 27 different production scenarios. In the running scenarios, Moora and linear function methods have introduced more total order revenues than FCFS and EDD methods. The present decision support system as a product that can be used by decision makers gives a different point of view to delivery date and order ranking literature which is generally composed of theoretical studies.

Discovery reach for wino and higgsino dark matter with a disappearing track signature at a 100 TeV pp collider

Within the theory of supersymmetry, the lightest neutralino is a dark matter candidate and is often assumed to be the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) as well. If the neutral wino or higgsino is dark matter, the upper limit of the LSP mass is determined by the observed relic density of dark matter. If the LSP is a nearly-pure neutral state of the wino or higgsino, the lightest chargino state is expected to have a significant lifetime due to a tiny mass difference between the LSP and the chargino. This article presents discovery potential of the 100 TeV future circular hadron collider (FCC) for the wino and higgsino dark matter using a disappearing-track signature. The search strategy to extend the discovery reach to the thermal limits of wino/higgsino dark matter is discussed with detailed studies on the background rate and the reference design of the FCC-hadron detector under possible running scenarios of the FCC-hadron machine. A proposal of modifying the detector layout and several ideas to improve the sensitivity further are also discussed.

Wi-Run: Device-free step estimation system with commodity Wi-Fi

Quantifying running is critical to ensure its effectiveness. Current running quantification usually resorts to device-based sensing. However, the device-based step counting can not be widely adopted due to its inconvenience, especially in multi-runner running scenario. Recently, the quick development of Wi-Fi based non-invasive human activity sensing has showed a promising future for device free exercise quantification. However, existing Wi-Fi based human activity sensing systems ignore multi-object activity due to its challenge. To address this issue, we propose Wi-Run, a complete model based non-invasive step estimation system that leverages commercial Wi-Fi devices to intelligently estimate steps. Wi-Run composes two models. The first is the single runner CSI-step estimation model, which quantifies the relationship between CSI dynamics and single runner running in place steps. The second is the multi-runner CSI-step model that quantifies the relationship between CSI dynamics and each runner's running in place steps. The experimental results in typical indoor environment illustrate the superior performance of the step estimation, whose accuracies range from single runner's 93.18% to five runners' 81.47% on average.

Clinical embryo sample tracking and identificationusing the mitochondrial genome

Introduction The mitochondrial genome contains single nucleotide variants (SNVs) that can be used to differentiate individuals. Additionally, mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is maternally inherited, providing a novel opportunity for DNA-based confirmation of maternal origin of embryo biopsies during Preimplantation Genetic Testing for Aneuploidy (PGT-A) by Next Generation Sequencing (NGS). Typically biopsies from different patients are processed and sequenced together in parallel as high throughput technologies necessitate sample batching for economical purposes. The mitochondrial genome is sequenced during PGT-A and the depth and breadth of coverage obtained from DOPlify® and the PG-Seq™ kit readily allows SNV analysis, even from a 48 sample NGS run. Here we investigate the clinical performance of RHS’ custom Embryo ID Single Nucleotide Variant (SNV) Panel. Material and methods A large putative panel of mitochondrial SNVs was compiled from published literature and by comparative analysis of PG-Seq™ data in IGV. Any SNVs associated with disease- related markers or in regions of lower depth of coverage using DOPlify™ were excluded. A single panel comprising 48 SNVs was compiled for evaluation. PG-Seq™ typically analyses 48 embryo biopsies in a single NGS run. Therefore, we modelled three separate NGS run scenarios; 4 embryos per patient (ie 12 unique mtDNA genomes), 2 embryos per patient (ie 24 mtDNA genomes), or 1 embryo per patient (ie 48 different mtDNA genomes) and tested performance of the panel in each scenario. For each scenario the appropriate number of mtDNA genomes were randomly selected from a publicly available dataset comprising 377 mtDNA genomes representing the global population (mtDB; http://www.mtdb.igp.uu.se/ ), and the panel's ability to differentiate the samples was assessed. This was replicated 10,000 times for each scenario. Results In the 10,000 simulated cases using the 377 mtDNA genome database and modelling embryos from 12 patients, on average, the SNV panel differentiated 91.5% of embryos. In the simulated cases with embryos from 24 patients, on average, the SNV panel differentiated 84.6% of embryos. In simulated cases with embryos from 48 patients, on average, the SNV panel differentiated 75.0% of embryos. In a clinical setting, if embryo signatures match, the rest of the mtDNA genome can still be used to further differentiate samples. It should be noted that maternally-related patients will share mtDNA genomes. In this case, it will not be possible to distinguish between embryos from these patients using the mitochondrial genome. Conclusions RHS’ PG-Seq™ and the Embryo ID Single Nucleotide Variant (SNV) Panel readily generates a unique embryo signature providing a simple novel identification protocol. RHS’ Embryo ID panel has the potential to improve PGT-A practice by providing a DNA-based confirmation of maternal origin and sibling embryo identification. This could be used for sample tracking within an IVF or genetic service provider laboratory. The discriminatory power of the panel may be improved simply by inclusion of population-specific SNVs. Embryo ID will be incorporated into a future release of PG- Seq™ software.

Examining the utility of a decision-support tool to develop spatial management options for the protection of vulnerable marine ecosystems on the high seas around New Zealand

The South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organisation (SPRFMO) Convention includes specific provisions to protect vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs). The SPRFMO Commission has determined that the interim measures put in place to protect VMEs should be replaced by an improved system of fishable and closed areas. We used the conservation planning tool Zonation to examine the utility of a decision-support tool to develop spatial management options that balance the protection of VMEs with utilisation of high value areas for fishing. Input data included: habitat suitability maps for VME indicator taxa, and uncertainties associated with these model predictions, for an area of the high seas around New Zealand; naturalness condition, represented by two proxy variables using New Zealand trawl effort data; and value to the New Zealand fishery using trawl catch data for two gear types and three time-periods. Running scenario analyses with these data allowed for an understanding of the effect of varying the input data on the spatial prioritisation of areas for VME conservation. The analyses also allowed for the cost to fishing to be determined, in terms of the amount of the trawl catch footprint (normalised to the catch) lost if high priority areas for VME indicator taxa are protected. In most scenarios, the cost to fishing was low given the relatively high proportion of suitable habitat for VME indicator taxa that could be protected. The main outcome of the present study is a demonstration of the practical utility of using available data, including modelled data, and the Zonation decision-support tool to develop future options for the spatial management of the SPRFMO area. Suggestions are also made for improvements in input data for future analyses.

How does population ageing impact on personal income taxes and social security contributions?

Abstract This paper analyses the impact of population ageing on income tax revenues and social security contributions for Austria. A static analysis focusing only on ageing - based on three population scenarios from the literature – leads to declining per capita income tax revenues and social security contributions of up to ten percent. However, a dynamic analysis combining the population scenarios with long run scenarios, that assume growing real wages and pension benefits, leads to increasing per capita income tax revenues and social security contributions. The findings of the dynamic analysis are driven by three factors: First and most importantly, by increasing wage and pension benefits. Second, by population growth that counteracts negative per capita effects of ageing on overall revenues. Third, new status-specific estimates of tax elasticities utilizing micro-data and quantile regression also explain 1/6 th of the observed increase.

COMPUTATIONAL MODEL TO IMPROVE DAIRY ANIMAL FEEDING UNDER MIXED FARMING SYSTEM (CROPS/LIVESTOCK) AS STUDY CASE

Computational model was designed for feeding systems of small dairy farms in Egypt under Mixed Farming System (MFS) (Crops/livestock). The present case study was selected from El-Beheira governorate, where the three common dairy animals (Local cows, Crossbred cows and buffaloes) are available. The main objectives of this study were 1- To find out the optimum combination of inputs from farm green forage and cash crops to minimize animal feeding costs. 2- Asses the possibilities of increasing the farm income by least cost rations formulation using available feed resources for dairy cattle. Technical coefficients of the models were obtained from previous studies under Egyptian condition. The model proposed three scenarios: Scenario I (S I) calculated the actual feeding situation from the case study without any changes as base run, scenario II (S II) proposed to cover animal feeding requirements of the same herd in scenario (S I) from the same available feed resources according to NRC (2001) and scenario III (S III) operating on the available feeding package quantities or reallocated farm feed resources for the same herd. The model used the common feed in summer and winter seasons (300 days) while, two months were considered as transitional period between two seasons, where irregular animal feeding regime is adopted. The results showed that area cultivated with green forages can be reduced by 17% and 25% of total planted area in SII for winter and summer, respectively, compared to base run (SI). Where as in S III, the green forage cultivated areas reduced by 30% and 25% for winter and summer, respectively in comparison with SI, feeding costs in SII were reduced by 51.11% and 38.97% in winter and summer, respectively. Using available feeding packages and reallocated farm resources in SIII reduced feeding costs by 47.78% and 27.67% for winter and summer, respectively. It can be concluded that using available feeding packages or reallocated animal feeding resources either in SII and SIII achieved a considerable reduction on animal feeding costs of small-scale mixed farms compared to base run scenario (SI).

Global and optimal probes for the top-quark effective field theory at future lepton colliders

We study the sensitivity to physics beyond the standard model of precise top-quark pair production measurements at future lepton colliders. A global effective-field-theory approach is employed, including all ten dimension-six operators of the Warsaw basis which involve a top-quark and give rise to tree-level amplitudes that interfere with standard-model {e}^{+}{e}^{-}to toverline{t}to b{W}^{+}overline{b}{W}^{-} ones in the limit of vanishing b-quark mass. Four-fermion and CP-violating contributions are taken into account. Circular-collider-, ILC- and CLIC-like benchmark run scenarios are examined. We compare the constraining power of various observables to a set of statistically optimal ones which maximally exploit the information contained in the fully differential b{W}^{+}overline{b}{W}^{-} distribution. The enhanced sensitivity gained on the linear contributions of dimension-six operators leads to bounds that are insensitive to quadratic ones. Even with statistically optimal observables, two centre-of-mass energies are required for constraining simultaneously two- and four-fermion operators. The impact of the centre-of-mass energy lever arm is discussed, that of beam polarization as well. A realistic estimate of the precision that can be achieved in ILC- and CLIC-like operating scenarios yields individual limits on the electroweak couplings of the top quark that are one to three orders of magnitude better than constraints set with Tevatron and LHC run I data, and three to two hundred times better than the most optimistic projections made for the high-luminosity phase of the LHC. Clean global constraints can moreover be obtained at lepton colliders, robustly covering the multidimensional effective-field-theory space with minimal model dependence.

Exploring Long Run Structural Change with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

In this paper we present a computable general equilibrium model (G-RDEM), specifically designed for the generation of long run scenarios of economic development, featuring a non-homothetic demand system, endogenous saving rates, differentiated industrial productivity growth, interest payments on foreign debt and time-varying input-output coefficients. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first model of this kind. We illustrate how parameters of the five modules of structural change have been estimated, and we test the model by comparing its results with those obtained by a more conventional recursive dynamic CGE model. Both models are driven by the same GDP and population data, exogenously provided by the IPCC Shared Socio-economic Pathway 3. GDP levels determine the endogenous productivity parameters. Population affects the definition of per capita income, which in turn affects the household demand system and the variation of input-output coefficients. Information on the demographic structure is also employed to modify the aggregate saving rate parameters. It is found that the two models do produce different findings, both globally and at the regional and industrial level. Understanding the origins of such differences sheds some light on how mechanisms of structural change operate in the long run.

A brush-based thermo-physical tyre model and its effectiveness in handling simulation of a Formula SAE vehicle

The ability to model tyre dynamics precisely is often one of the most critical elements for realistic vehicle dynamics control and handling investigations. The industry-standard empirical models are able to predict the important tyre forces accurately over a short range of vehicle operating conditions, which is often restricted to the operating conditions experienced during the tyre testing process. In this paper, an alternative and practical method to model Formula SAE tyres has been proposed and studied in a series of possible running scenarios. A simple, analytically solved brush-type tyre model is considered for the physical part with the introduction of a novel approach for defining the contact length formulation that incorporates the influence of inflation pressure, camber angle and velocity, while a set of ordinary differential equations are employed to predict the thermal behaviour of the tyre model, which are mostly based on an already-existing method that has not been experimentally validated before. The resulting tyre models provide realistic and informative behaviour of the tyre, which has the ability to consider the majority of the typical operating conditions experienced on a Formula SAE vehicle. The performance of the proposed tyre models is compared against experimental tyre test data, which shows good agreement and indicates that the tyre models have the ability to give realistic predictions of the tyre forces and thermal behaviour in the case of thermal tyre model. Furthermore, the temperature-dependent tyre model has been incorporated into a two-track model of Oxford Brookes Racing’s Formula SAE vehicle to study the effectiveness of the tyre model during transient handling simulation. The resulting simulations suggest that the proposed tyre model has the ability to represent realistic operating conditions of tyres, and also that tyre temperatures influence the vehicle dynamic behaviour significantly during on-limit scenarios.

AN ECONOMICAL, ENERGETICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT OF OLIVE OIL PRODUCTION WASTES

This study evaluates the technical, economic and environmental results of energy exploitation from the waste of olive oil production. A case study of olive processing wastes was carried out for the fossil fuel substitution running scenario. The olive oil production plant in Turkey was investigated for a case study. The economic and financial assessment of the investment for waste utilization includes the calculation of the economic viability parameters. It was determined that the installation of a 5 MW combined heat and power production plant and electricity production is a very attractive investment. The values of discounted payback period, the net present value, the internal rate of return and the benefit to cost ratio were calculated as 3.68 years, 7,399,096 €, 30.36% and 3.43 for a combined heat and power production plant using waste from olive oil production.

A novel approach for gait analysis using activity classifier for medical analysis

Gait analysis to recognize the activity movements using wearable sensors is a cost effective, convenient, and efficient way of providing useful information for various applications in geriatrics, assessment of the performance of athletes in term of medical application and so on. In this paper, an attempt has been made to classify simple activities such as walking, running etc. In order to capture the movements, a Bluetooth Arduino microcontroller fitted with a tri-axial acceleration sensor was employed. The Arduino was programmed to record the readings of the acceleration sensor that works in collaboration with the user’s smartphone or PC/laptop. In order to analyse the device performance and enable it to classify the activities correctly, Naive Bayes classifier was used. This device is fitted into the footwear of the user before the user performed the activity. Four protocols were considered for this analysis, namely walking, running, falling in the forward direction and falling in the backward direction. Five healthy adults were requested to perform this experiment. The results were consistent in the different environments considered and the device showed an overall accuracy of 90.67%. The average acceleration sensor reading in the walking scenario was found to be 0.287, 1.104 in the running scenario, 0.824 in the falling forward scenario and -0.779 in the falling backward scenario.

Measurement of the Higgs boson mass and e+e−→ZH cross section using Z→μ+μ− and Z→e+e− at the ILC

This paper presents a full simulation study of the measurement of the production cross section (${\ensuremath{\sigma}}_{ZH}$) of the Higgsstrahlung process ${e}^{+}{e}^{\ensuremath{-}}\ensuremath{\rightarrow}ZH$ and the Higgs boson mass (${M}_{\mathrm{H}}$) at the International Linear Collider (ILC), using events in which a Higgs boson recoils against a $Z$ boson decaying into a pair of muons or electrons. The analysis is carried out for three center-of-mass energies $\sqrt{s}=250$, 350, and 500 GeV, and two beam polarizations ${e}_{\mathrm{L}}^{\ensuremath{-}}{e}_{\mathrm{R}}^{+}$ and ${e}_{\mathrm{R}}^{\ensuremath{-}}{e}_{\mathrm{L}}^{+}$, for which the polarizations of ${e}^{\ensuremath{-}}$ and ${e}^{+}$ are $(P{e}^{\ensuremath{-}},P{e}^{+})=\phantom{\rule{0ex}{0ex}}(\ensuremath{-}80%,+30%)$ and ($+80%$, $\ensuremath{-}30%$), respectively. Assuming an integrated luminosity of $250\text{ }\text{ }{\mathrm{fb}}^{\ensuremath{-}1}$ for each beam polarization at $\sqrt{s}=250\text{ }\text{ }\mathrm{GeV}$, where the best lepton momentum resolution is obtainable, ${\ensuremath{\sigma}}_{ZH}$ and ${M}_{\mathrm{H}}$ can be determined with a precision of 2.5% and 37 MeV for ${e}_{\mathrm{L}}^{\ensuremath{-}}{e}_{\mathrm{R}}^{+}$ and 2.9% and 41 MeV for ${e}_{\mathrm{R}}^{\ensuremath{-}}{e}_{\mathrm{L}}^{+}$, respectively. Regarding a 20 year ILC physics program, the expected precisions for the HZZ coupling and ${M}_{\mathrm{H}}$ are estimated to be 0.4% and 14 MeV, respectively. The event selection is designed to optimize the precisions of ${\ensuremath{\sigma}}_{ZH}$ and ${M}_{\mathrm{H}}$ while minimizing the bias on the measured ${\ensuremath{\sigma}}_{ZH}$ due to discrepancy in signal efficiencies among Higgs decay modes. For the first time, model independence has been demonstrated to a sub-percent level for the ${\ensuremath{\sigma}}_{ZH}$ measurement at each of the three center-of-mass energies. The results presented show the impact of center-of-mass energy and beam polarization on the evaluated precisions and serve as a benchmark for the planning of the ILC run scenario.

A study of the measurement precision of the Higgs boson decaying into tau pairs at the ILC

We evaluate the measurement precision of the production cross section times the branching ratio of the Higgs boson decaying into tau lepton pairs at the International Linear Collider (ILC). We analyze various final states associated with the main production mechanisms of the Higgs boson, the Higgs-strahlung and WW-fusion processes. The statistical precision of the production cross section times the branching ratio is estimated to be 2.6% and 6.9% for the Higgs-strahlung andWW-fusion processes, respectively, with the nominal integrated luminosities assumed in the ILC Technical Design Report; the precision improves to 1.0% and 3.4% with the running scenario including possible luminosity upgrades. The study provides a reference performance of the ILC for future phenomenological analyses.

On optimal long-term relationship between TFP, institutions, and income inequality under embodied technical progress

We develop a simple optimal catch-up model under embodiment to study the potential long term dynamic relationship between total factor productivity (TFP), institutional quality, and income inequality in the context of a developing economy. Assuming a proactive role of institution in the persistence of TFP and minimum inequality spread for social optimum, we quantify the extent to which embodiment characteristics determine the long-term dynamics among these factors. It is shown that the amelioration (deterioration) of institutional quality influences skilled labour mobility across sectors (in developing economies) thereby decreasing (increasing) long term income inequality. Long run scenarios are built using our model in which the production sophistication of the economy under embodiment is shown to be compatible with both better institutions and less income inequality. Quantile regression results for a sample of 27 developing countries over 1990–2010 provide broad support to the theoretical predictions. In particular, it is found that – along the distribution path of embodied technical progress – there is heterogeneous response of productivity growth to the inequality spread and innovation intensity. Our results have interesting policy implications.

Downscaled climate models in complex topographical regions: relevancy for water utility planning

Water resource managers are interested in planning for future climate change scenarios, but global climate models are too coarse for water resource planning and running scenarios through dynamic downscaled regional climate models can be overly time-consuming. For this experiment, we conceptually illustrate that regional climate models can reproduce observed data for the San Francisco area, skipping a time-intensive intermediate step. To determine whether skipping the step would negatively affect output, we downscaled 13 months of National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis (NNRP2) data from native to 50, 40, and 20-km resolution using the regional climate model RegCM3. Outputs relevant to water planners, temperature and precipitation were compared with a high resolution observed dataset, which indicated that this configuration of RegCM3 can produce downscaled data with high correlations to observed data for this domain. The high correlations indicate that this domain can be simulated with a high spatial resolution ratio (1:14), without the need for the intermediate step. This study is a proof of concept that high resolution data can be obtained more efficiently for water agencies considering possible climate scenarios in planning for their future water supply. However, additional analysis is necessary before information can be obtained from downscaled models for decision-relevant use.