Run Equilibrium Relationship Research Articles

The Relationship Between Human Capital and the Economic Growth in Sudan: علاقة الاستثمار في رأس المال البشري بالنمو الاقتصادي في السودان

The study aims to test the relationship between investment in human capital and economic growth in Sudan. It assumed that the growth in both of enrolled in different levels of education and government expenditure on education will lead to increase the economic growth in Sudan. The variables were subjected to several econometrics tests, such as Augmented Dickey–Fuller test (ADF), Autoregressive Distributed- lagged Model (ARDL) and the Error Correction Model (ECM) to test the short- and long- term relationship between study variables. The results of long- run parameters of the (ARDL) model showed a positive correlation between real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate and the percentage of enrollment in universities from the total population. Also it showed a positive correlation between real GDP growth and education expenditure as a percentage of Gross National Income (GNI). While the estimated results of the bounds test for co- integration within the (ARDL) methodology results provided evidence of a long- run equilibrium relationship between the real GDP growth and the enrollment ratios of primary, secondary and university levels to the total population. Also provided evidence for a long- run equilibrium relationship between real GDP growth and the education expenditure as a share of GNI. Export of goods and services as a percentage of GDP and inflation rate. While the results of the estimated error correction model (ECM) confirmed that the real GDP growth is adjusted to its equilibrium value in each time period by 93% and 88%- for the two models respectively- of the remaining balance of the period with onetime lag. The study recommended the expansion of university education to raise the rate of economic growth through the development of policies to encourage investment in it, raise the quality of university education and improve the outputs quality, enhance the curricula to keep pace with the modern technology progress, linking education outputs with the needs of the labor market requirements and raising the percentage of education expenditure from GDP, as well as to encourage the governmental educational institutions to develop and diversify their self- financing resources.

Economic Forces and the Stock Market Performance in Developing Countries: Evidence From Sudan

This paper is an attempt to empirically investigate the determinants of the stock market performance in Sudan. It aims at identifying the short and long run relationships between the Khartoum Stock Exchange all- share price index (KSI) as an indicator of market performance and some selected micro and macro-economic factors. The inflation rate, cost of capital, foreign exchange rate, broad money supply, and crude oil price are chosen as proxies for macroeconomic factors. The market oriented indicators used include market capitalization, market trading system, and market trading volume. The study covers the period 2003-2017. The paper employs the Multivariate Time Series Regression Analysis to estimate the short run relationship between the selected independent variables and the KSE price index. Soren Johansen’s Cointegration Test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) have been employed to identify the long run equilibrium relationship among the variables. To estimate the causal relationship between the selected variables Toda-Yamamoto (T-Y) Granger Causality Test has been utilized. The study documents that the Khartoum Stock Exchange performance is significantly affected both by micro and macroeconomic factors. In the long run, all the independent variables with the exception of the cost of capital, have a significant positive relationship with KSI. However, in the short run the determinants of the stock market performance are market capitalization, market trading volume, money Supply, and cost of capital.

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE AS PREDICTOR OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

The focus of this study was to test if International development assistance bring any change in the Nigerian economy. The data was based on the foreign aid inflow for the period of 1986 to 2016. Stationarity of data is established using the unit root test. For testing the direction of causality, short run and long run dynamic relationship between independent and dependent variables, Granger Causality Procedure, Johansen Co-Integration and Error Correction Model is utilized. Finding indicate that International development assistance bring improvement in the Nigerian economy. Furthermore, long run equilibrium relationship between official development assistance and economic growth is established in this study.

AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION INTO THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PREMIUMS AND CLAIMS PAID IN THE NIGERIAN INSURANCE INDUSTRY: A 2000-2017 ANALYSIS

This study is an investigation into the relationship between premiums received and claims paid in the Nigerian insurance industry over the period 2000-2017. Data on gross premiums received and gross claims paid over the period were gotten from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin, National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) and the Nigerian Insurers Association (NIA) annual reports. Stationarity test carried out on the data reveal that data is stationary at the 1%, 5% and 10% levels of significance. The cointegration test reveals that no cointegration exists among the variables which imply that there is no long run equilibrium relationship between the variables. Using the ordinary least squares regression, the calculated probability value of 0.167 is higher than the 0.05 significant value, hence we accept the null hypothesis that there is no significant relationship between claims paid and premiums received in the Nigerian insurance industry. The coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.91157 indicates that gross premiums contribute 91.2 percent to variations in gross claims while the remaining 8.6 percent is owing to factors outside the regression model. We therefore conclude that claims paid by insurers is not a function of premiums received and recommend that insurers should endeavour to settle claims promptly and equitably to increase client satisfaction.

How do stocks in BRICS co-move with real estate stocks?

This paper investigates BRICS markets’ integration and segmentation between real estate indices and stock indices, and the possibility of establishing “wealth” and “credit” effects. The analysis of the relationship is based on updated techniques in time series using the concepts of fractional integration and cointegration and Granger causality. This allows us to look at market efficiency and bi-directional long-run equilibrium relationships between the two variables in the five countries. The results indicate that all the series are highly persistent, with orders of integration around 1 implying the possibility of markets to be efficient. However, we do not find any evidence suggesting long run equilibrium relationships between the real estate stock indices and the stocks indices. Meanwhile, causality is bi-directional in the case of South Africa, thus both “wealth effect” and “credit effect” exist, while only “credit effect” is established in India and Russia.

Testing the Validity of Purchasing Power Parity Theory and Dynamics of Exchange Rate Behavior (Pakistan, China, Iran and Turkey)

Purpose: This study is aimed at to observe the purchasing power parity (PPP) Theory. The purchasing power parity (PPP) is the most enduring debate of literature in international macroeconomics. It is most controversial due to various puzzles and tested with different econometric models for certain group of countries. Therefore, the PPP is valid assumption while international comparison due to use of common exchange rate and the prevalence of Law of One price.
 Design/Methodology/Approach: The validity of PPP for relative countries (Pakistan, China, Iran and Turkey) was tested and analyzed for the sample period 2001 to 2018.
 Findings: It is observed that exchange rates of Pakistan, China, Iran and Turkey are not consistent and constant. The deviations of PPP through structural changes identified and are not persistence over long period. Overall results reflected that there is an existence of long run equilibrium relation in between Pakistan and China as well as in between Iran and Turkey. The error correction model has confirmed the adjustment speed of short run disequilibrium to long term disequilibrium level. Implications/Originality/Value: The expected differential level of inflation has significant positive impact to exchange rate shift to Pakistan and trading activity patterns. The changes in foreign exchange market and commodity market due to economic integration are important implications for economic globalization.

Impact of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria

This study seeks to explain the impact of government expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria using time series data from 1970 – 2017. Secondary data were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria and World Bank. The study applied a modified version of endogenous growth model using Autoregressive distributed lag model. The adopted model was fitted with six variables- capital stock, labour force, capital expenditure, recurrent expenditure, inflation and trade openness. The study employed ADF-unit root test, Phillips-Perron test and Pairwise Granger causality test. All the variables used were found to be integrated at first difference except labour and inflation and a stable long run equilibrium relationship exist between the dependent and independent variables. Empirical findings revealed that two variables: capital and recurrent are statistically significant and hence these are the significant variables in explaining the impact of government expenditure on economic growth. The Granger causality test demonstrates a unidirectional causality from government expenditure to economic growth, in validation of Keynesian theory. In line with above, the study recommends among others that: government should intensify effort to ensure resources are properly managed and invested in productive sectors so as to foster economic growth.

The Cointegration Relationship and Causal Link of Internet Penetration and Broadband Subscription on Economic Growth: Evidence from ASEAN Countries

This study explores the cointegration relationship and causal link of internet penetration and broadband subscription to economic growth from the 10 countries of ASEAN for the period 2000-2016. A pooled multiple regression model with GDP growth as a function of internet penetration and broadband subscription was developed. The Johansen-Fisher panel cointegration was applied to determine the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the three variables and the direction of causality was identified by estimating the panel-based vector error correction model (VECM). Results from cointegration test indicate a long run equilibrium relationship between internet penetration, broadband subscription and economic growth. The causality test reveals there is long run causality running from internet penetration and broadband subscription to economic growth. In the short-run, broadband subscription causes economic growth in the ASEAN countries. However, internet penetration has no causal link with economic growth in the short-run during the period 2000-2016. The findings are supportive of the claim that internet penetration and broadband connections are engine of economic growth and are rapidly transforming ASEAN economies. Based on these findings, this study recommends that ASEAN governments should be supportive on policies that promotes better internet and broadband infrastructure to achieved short and long-run economic growth.

VELOCITY OF MONEY INCOME AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SUDAN: COINTEGRATION AND ERROR CORRECTION ANALYSIS

This study explores the linkages between velocity of money and economic growth in Sudan using conitegration and error correction methods in the context of the quantity theory of money QTM without inclusion of institutional factors. Cointegration analysis confirms existence of a long run equilibrium relationship between velocity of money and economic growth. The empirical analysis shows that velocity of money is significantly and positively affected by GDP and broad money, validating the QTM. Velocity of money is also found to be positively affected by trade openness, government deficit but negatively affected by inflation and investment. Granger causality test shows unidirectional relationships running from GDP, inflation and financial development to velocity of money. A bidirectional causality between velocity and trade openness is detected. These findings suggest that velocity of money is driven mostly by expansionary monetary policy and monetization of government deficit, which should be controlled.

Military Expenditure Economic Growth Nexus in Jordan: An Application of ARDL Bound Test Analysis in the Presence of Breaks

ABSTRACT The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is a nation that has persisted through turbulent times. The country’s leaders have long attempted to balance the allocation of resources between a strong military and a developing economy in their quest for stability, peace and prosperity. This paper examines and sheds further light on the relationship between Jordan’s military expenditure and its economic growth during the period 1970–2015. Using the Gregory -Hansen cointegration technique allowing for structural breaks, and the ARDL methodology this paper tests the short – and long–run equilibrium relationship between military expenditure and economic growth in Jordan. Furthermore, with the error correction model (ECM) and the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests, we examine the stability of the above relationship. The results reveal positive short – and long–run relationships between military expenditure and economic growth in Jordan, during the period under study. This finding has important policy implications for the Jordanian state, as it justifies the transfer of resources to the military, showing that it has not had a negative impact on economic growth.

PRICE INTEGRATION AND TRANSMISSION OF FOOD GRAINS MARKETS IN SOUTHWEST NIGERIA (2004-2013)

The success of market reforms in developing countries depends to a large extent on the strength of price signals transmitted between different level of markets reflecting extent of market integration and extent to which markets function efficiently. Market integration is an indicator that efficiency exists within the flow of information between markets. This study examined price integration and transmission of food grains markets in Southwest, Nigeria. Time series data of rural and urban retail prices of local and imported rice, cowpea and maize between 2004 to 2013 were obtained from the Agricultural Development Programme (ADP) Offices in selected States. The degree of price transmission was analyzed within the framework of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test results revealed that the price series were stationary at first difference. Johansen cointegration results showed that even though two Cointegrating Equations (CEs) exist between linear combinations, some stable long run equilibrium relationships exist among the price series. The study concluded that Rural Price of Local Rice in Lagos State (RPLRLS), Rural Price of Cowpea in Oyo State (RPCOYS) and Rural Price of Maize in Lagos State (RPMLS) occupied the leadership position in price formation and transmission. The study therefore, recommended that policy measures aimed at increasing consumption of local rice, cowpea and maize be implemented, in identifying the leader markets.
 

The criticality of growth, urbanization, electricity and fossil fuel consumption to environment sustainability in Africa

While most African economies are primarily sandwiched with the seemingly unsurmountable task of attaining consistent economic growth and unhindered energy supply, the enormous threat posed by environmental degradation has further complicated the economic and environmental sustainability drive. In this context, the present study examines the effect of economic growth, urbanization, electricity consumption, fossil fuel energy consumption, and total natural resources rent on pollutant emissions in Africa over the period 1980–2014. By employing selected African countries, the current study relies on the Kao and Pedroni cointegration tests to cointegration analysis, the Pesaran's Panel Pooled Mean Group-Autoregressive distributive lag methodology (ARDL-PMG) for long run regression while Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) is employed for the detection of causality direction among the outlined variables. The study traces long run equilibrium relationships between examined indicators. The ARDL-PMG results suggest a statistical positive relationship between pollutant emissions and urbanization, electricity consumption and non-renewable energy consumption. Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) Granger causality test lends support to the long-run regression results. A bi-directional causality is observed between pollutant emissions, electricity consumption, economic growth and pollutant emissions while a unidirectional causality is apparent between total natural resources rent and pollutant emission. Based on these results, several policy implications for the African continent were suggested. (a) The need for a paradigm shift from fossil fuel sources to renewables is encouraged in the region (b) The need to embrace carbon storage and capturing techniques to decouple pollutant emissions from economic growth on the continent's growth trajectory. Further policy insights are elucidated.

Does Global Financial Crisis Integrate the Regional Market in Asia More Strongly?

The aim of this paper is to analyze whether the worldwide financial crisis integrates the regional markets in Asia more strongly. Secondly, it is also to examine whether the integration of regional markets in Asia necessarily leads to a weak form of market efficiency. To examine this we have considered the different broad based and liquid stock indices such as the Sensex and BSE 100 from the Bombay Stock Exchange; the S&P CNX Nifty from the National Stock Exchange, representing India; the Hang Seng Index from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, representing China; the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLSE), Bursa Malaysia representing Malaysia; the Nikkei 225 from the Tokyo Stock Exchange representing Japan, and the Straits Times Index (STI) from the Singapore Exchange representing Singapore. The study considered the daily data spanning from 4th January 1994 to 2nd May 2012. The full sample period was split into three forms such as the whole sample, the Global financial crisis and the post global financial crisis. The short term interaction was studied by using Toda Yamamoto’s procedure of Granger’s Causality in VAR Block Exogenity form and the long run equilibrium relationship was tested by applying the Johansen Maximum Likelihood procedure. And so the paper explored the possible, integrating relationship at the volatility level among the regional stock indices by applying the ARCH school of models. Finally, the Random Walk Hypothesis was tested by employing the Chow-Denning (1993) and the Lo and Mackinlay (1988) multiple variance ratio test to examine the efficiency of the market. The major findings of the study indicated that the worldwide financial crisis integrates the regional markets in Asia more strongly in the short term from 2007 onwards. There is no long run equilibrium relationship among the regional stock markets. The study also found that the integration of the financial market does not necessarily contribute to market efficiency.

Market integration and price volatility of pigeon pea in Maharashtra

Pigeon pea (Cajanus cajan) is an important pulse crop originated from India, grown in the tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Huge fluctuations in prices of farm produce were observed during past few years. The present study aimed to know Market integration of Pigeon pea prices i.e. seasonal variations, price volatility and co-integration among the major Pigeon pea markets in Maharashtra. For study purpose the data related to monthly average prices of pigeon pea were collected from major markets of Maharashtra state viz. Washim, Wardha, Mumbai and Latur for the period 2005 to 2016. Moving average method was used to study seasonal variations. The econometric tools like ADF test, Johansen's multiple co-integration test, Granger causality test and ARCH-GARCH model were used to study price volatility and co-integration among different markets. The results of study showed that the prices of Pigeon pea were higher in the months from July to October in all the selected markets. The cyclical variations observed in the prices of Pigeon pea in the selected markets. For all selected markets, the price series showed the consequences of unit root and were stationary at first order difference. The selected markets showed long run equilibrium relationship and co-integration between them. Most of the markets showed bidirectional influence on pigeon pea prices of each other. All the selected markets of study showed price volatility in Pigeon pea prices.

Applying Johansen VECM cointegration approach to propose a forecast model of photovoltaic power output plant in Reunion Island

Since 2007 Reunion Island, a French overseas region located in the Indian Ocean, aims to achieve energy self-sufficiency by 2030. The French government has made this insular zone an experimental territory for renewable energy resources (RES) by implementing great powers photovoltaic (PV) plants. However, the performance of PV conversion is highly climate dependent, and there have been many research contributions to show that the two main factors that influence PV cell efficiency are solar radiation and cell temperature. Moreover, considering the high variability of environmental factors on PV plants, the high penetration of PV in electric systems may threaten the stability and reliability of the electrical power grid. In this study, a linear relation analysis of time series data collected over one year is performed in order to investigate the dependent variable of PV power output from explanatory variables such as solar irradiance, cell temperature, wind speed and humidity. The originality of this paper is to apply cointegration methods, usual tools of econometrics, to PV systems. More precisely, this research work lies in the use a robust statistical method to model a vector cointegrating relationship linking the PV power output and the four environmental parameters mentioned above, to make accurate forecasts in a tropical area. The Johansen vector error correction model (VECM) cointegration approach is used to determine the most appropriate PV power output forecasting when the desired model is concerned with N explanatory variables and for N > 2. This long run equilibrium relationship has been tested over many years of data and the outcome is more than reliable when comparing the model to measured data.

Dynamics among banking penetration, transport infrastructure, and regional growth: an empirical note from Indian states

This study examines the dynamics among banking penetration, transport infrastructure and regional growth for 23 Indian states within panel vector error correction framework over the period 2001 to 2017. Findings confirm the presence of long run equilibrium relationship between banking penetration, transport infrastructure and income for the panel. Panel FMOLS and DOLS results suggest that 1% increase in transport (roadways) infrastructure stocks and banking penetration increases the regional growth by 0.0620% to 0.06784% and 0.1836% to 0.1935%, respectively. Further, panel VECM-based causality results suggest that bidirectional causality between the regional growth and roadways infrastructure, banking penetration and regional growth, and banking penetration and roadways infrastructure respectively in long run. However, there is bidirectional causality between regional growth to roadways infrastructure, and banking outreach to roadways infrastructure, and unidirectional causality running from banking outreach to regional growth in the short run. Therefore, improving transport (roadways) infrastructure would be the right step towards regional growth in short run and long run as well.

Monetary – Fiscal Policy Mix: A Tool for Economic Stabilization in Nigeria

The study examined empirically the relationship between monetary-fiscal policy mix and Nigeria’s economic stability. The Johansen co-integration technique complemented with VECM were employed to achieve the objective of the study. The result of the descriptive statistics revealed that the variables were normally distributed and the degree of variability of them was good as evident from the Jarque-Bera statistics and standard deviation. The Johansen and Juselius co-integration results revealed that both the trace statistic and maximum Eigenvalue statistic confirmed the existence of co-integrating equations among the variables of interest. It was evident that the trace test indicated six co-integrating equations while maximum Eigenvalue test revealed four co-integrating equations in the model, as the null hypothesis of no co-integration was rejected. These results suggested that there was a unique long run equilibrium relationship among the variables. The VECM result indicated that there was a long run relationship between the variables concerned. The result further showed that monetary-fiscal indicators have not made much significant contributions to the growth of the Nigerian economy as well as economic stabilization in Nigeria. The study recommended the entrenchment of fiscal discipline as a result of destabilizing effect of government’s fiscal activities due to its fiscal irresponsibility in Nigeria. Also recommended was that monetary policies should be structured to lower lending interest rate and raise interest rate on saving deposits so as to increase the availability of loanable funds which will in turn boost investment and stimulate economic growth.

Dynamics among Banking Penetration, Transport Infrastructure, and Regional Growth: An Empirical Note from Indian states

This study examines the dynamics among banking penetration, transport infrastructure and regional growth for 23 Indian states within panel vector error correction framework over the period 2001 to 2017. Findings confirm the presence of long run equilibrium relationship between banking penetration, transport infrastructure and income for the panel. Panel FMOLS and DOLS results suggest that 1% increase in transport (roadways) infrastructure stocks and banking penetration increases the regional growth by 0.0620% to 0.06784% and 0.1836% to 0.1935%, respectively. Further, panel VECM-based causality results suggest that bidirectional causality between the regional growth and roadways infrastructure, banking penetration and regional growth, and banking penetration and roadways infrastructure respectively in long run. However, there is bidirectional causality between regional growth to roadways infrastructure, and banking outreach to roadways infrastructure, and unidirectional causality running from banking outreach to regional growth in the short run. Therefore, improving transport (roadways) infrastructure would be the right step towards regional growth in short run and long run as well.

Economic Growth, CH<sub>4</sub> and N<sub>2</sub>O Emissions in Sudan: Where Should the Policy Focus Be?

This study aimed to investigate the effect of economic growth, agricultural growth and energy use on methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions in Sudan. Within the context of the EKC, the study applies the OLS, cointegration, vector error correction modelling (VECM) and Granger causality methods. The study has established a long run equilibrium relationship for both CH4 and N2O in their relation to economic growth, agricultural growth and energy use in presence of trade openness (TOP) and inflows of foreign direct investments (FDI). The estimated VECM shows that emissions of CH4 are significantly affected by economic growth, TOP, and FDI with no effect of agricultural growth in the short run while CH4 is found to be significantly affected by economic growth, agricultural growth, TOP and FDI in the long run. The estimated VECM for N2O shows that N2O emissions are more significantly affected by energy use, agricultural growth and FDI with no effect of economic growth in the short run, while N2O is found to be significantly affected by economic growth, agricultural growth, TOP and FDI in the long run. Consistently, findings from the estimated OLS and VECMs show that the EKC does not hold for either CH4, or N2O emissions, and that N2O emissions are more significantly affected by economic growth, agricultural growth and energy use than emissions of CH4. Findings from impulse response and variance decomposition analysis confirm that emissions of N2O are more responsive to economic growth, agricultural growth and energy use than emissions of CH4. Granger causality analysis shows existence of bidirectional relationship between CH4 and agricultural growth, but a unidirectional relationship from CH4 to FDI. For N2O, the study finds a unidirectional relationship running from agricultural growth to N2O, while N2O emissions are found to cause GDP per capita, the squared GDP per capita, OIL consumption and FDI. In terms of causality, these results suggest that emissions of CH4 and N2O have been generated more by agricultural activities than by overall economic activity, and that activities generating N2O emissions in particular have been contributing significantly to economic growth. Within the context of the country’s intended nationally determined contributions, the findings of this study suggest that policies should be directed cautiously but more effectively to control N2O than CH4 emissions. Economic growth could be pursued without significant environmental harm from both CH4 and N2O emissions. However, Sudan should expand adoption of energy efficiency measures, expansion of renewable energy use, place restrictions on production and use of fuel woods and charcoal for low carbon economy and green growth.

Impact of Export and Import on Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from India

This paper examines the cointegration and causal relationships between export, import, and economic growth in India using quarterly data from 1996:Q2 to 2019:Q2. Stationarity properties of the time series data are investigated using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests, and the existence of cointegrating relationship is studied using Johansen’s cointegration test. Finally, the causal relationships between the variables are examined using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results show that, under both tests, the time series variables are non-stationary at their levels and are stationary at their first differences. The Johansen’s cointegration test shows the existence of a long run equilibrium relationship among the variables. The results from the VECM indicate that there is a unidirectional causal relationship running from economic growth to import in India. This implies that with an increase in the income of the nation, the nation’s spending will increase, and some of the spending will be on import.