Ruble Rate Research Articles

Direct Investment from Russia Abroad: Changes since 2018

The article considers the specifics of Russian foreign direct investment outflows in 2018–the first half of 2020. Three main reasons for the new stagnation of Russian foreign investment expansion are identified: 1) the strengthening of “sanctions war” with the West after the election of Vladimir Putin for the 4th presidential term; 2) the slowdown in the global economy in 2018–2019 against the background of relatively low prices for hydrocarbons and other raw materials exported from Russia; and 3) the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. These factors resulted in a reduction of both outward foreign direct investment stocks by Russian MNEs (partially due to revaluation of their assets after the collapse of the ruble rate), and a decrease in investments of wealthy Russians in foreign real estate as well as pseudo-foreign investment because of the regular attempts to conduct de-offshorization. Based on a study conducted at INION within the framework of the international program for studying MNEs from emerging markets, a list of leading Russian non-financial MNEs by the end of 2019 is presented. Further prospects of Russian direct investment are shown at the end of the article.

Прямые инвестиции из России за рубеж: изменения с 2018 года

The article considers the specifics of Russian foreign direct investment outflows in 2018 – the first half of 2020. Three main reasons for the new stagnation of Russian foreign investment expansion are identified: 1) the strengthening of “sanctions war” with the West after the election of Vladimir Putin for the 4th presidential term; 2) the slowdown in the global economy in 2018-2019 against the background of relatively low prices for hydrocarbons and other raw materials exported from Russia; and 3) the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. These factors resulted in a reduction of both outward foreign direct investment stocks by Russian MNEs (partially due to revaluation of their assets after the collapse of the ruble rate), and a decrease in investments of wealthy Russians in foreign real estate as well as pseudo-foreign investment because of the regular attempts to conduct de-offshorization. Based on a study conducted at INION within the framework of the international program for studying MNEs from emerging markets, a list of leading Russian non-financial MNEs by the end of 2019 is presented. Further prospects of Russian direct investment are shown at the end of the article.

Direct Investment from Russia Abroad: Changes since 2018

The article considers the specifics of Russian foreign direct investment outflows in 2018 - the first half of 2020. Three main reasons for the new stagnation of Russian foreign investment expansion are identified: 1) the strengthening of sanctions war with the West after the election of Vladimir Putin for the 4th presidential term;2) the slowdown in the global economy in 2018-2019 against the background of relatively low prices for hydrocarbons and other raw materials exported from Russia;and 3) the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. These factors resulted in a reduction of both outward foreign direct investment stocks by Russian MNEs (partially due to revaluation of their assets after the collapse of the ruble rate), and a decrease in investments of wealthy Russians in foreign real estate as well as pseudo-foreign investment because of the regular attempts to conduct de-offshorization. Based on a study conducted at INION within the framework of the international program for studying MNEs from emerging markets, a list of leading Russian non-financial MNEs by the end of 2019 is presented. Further prospects of Russian direct investment are shown at the end of the article. © 2021 Ltd Integration: Education and Science. All rights reserved.

External Risk Factors Influence on the Financial Stability of Construction Companies

The modern conditions of construction companies’ activities in Russia are influenced by various processes: developing globalization, limitation of free trade due to economic sanctions, man-made disasters growth, worldwide digitalization, constantly evolving technologies. The purpose of this study is to develop a model for assessing risk factors’ impact on the financial stability of construction companies using regression analysis based on dependencies between risk factors and financial stability of construction companies on the basis of statistical data over the past 10 years. The following methods were used: questioning of owners and key employees in construction companies on the indicators choice that characterize external risk factors, correlation analysis, regression analysis, expert evaluation method, trend line method. As a result it was revealed that in order to create favorable conditions for the construction companies’ growth, a stable legislative base, a stable ruble rate and an activation of investments in fixed assets are needed. The proposed tool for assessing external risk factors and their impact on the construction companies’ financial sustainability can be used both to assess the organization's environment and to assess various risk situations in order to further use the results in decision-making.

Specific Features of Audit and Assessment of Foreign-Trade Barter Deals

Today the impact of foreign-trade operations as an important element of foreign – economic activity on economy of Russia has increased. Thus showing all stages of foreign-trade barter deal is becoming more and more acute. Because of that the organization could avoid difficulties in the process of shaping income of the operation. As a result of export-import operation integration not only positive effects but also certain problems were found. Practice of auditing demonstrated that currency, commercial and finance risks are not controlled completely or are controlled insufficiently, which can cause damages to the organization. An important step during auditing is the process of identifying advantages and disadvantages in the existing control over foreign-trade barter deals. In case such a control is absent, the assessment of goods movement on the way, in places of storage and transportation is violated. According to the Federal Customs Service import reached the minimum value in the last 5 years. It is connected mainly with food embargo (which caused the record drop in deliveries from EU countries), numerous bans introduced last year and fall in the ruble rate. The author advanced methodology of barter deal auditing during conducting foreign economic activity by organizations and the system of record-keeping of operations, which play an important role in foreign trade of Russian organizations and entrepreneurs.

THE NEW BUDGET RULE FOR 2018-2020

The article considers a new mechanism for the formation of the Russian budget. This work is a continuation of the study of the draft budget for 2015 and the planning period 2016 and 2017. The new budget rule is aimed mainly at stabilizing the economy. The purpose of the rule is to reduce the dependence of the budget on market incomes. The new budget rule will be applied from 2018 onwards. The main directions of the new budget plan are defined, among which the development of the defense, space and nuclear industries is traditionally. The possible consequences of an increase in tax rates are considered. In this regard, the emphasis is on the main changes in the draft budget. The decision to change the budget rule is due to the fact that the current mechanism has a positive feedback, that is, it can contribute both to excessive strengthening of the ruble, and to its excessive weakening. The conclusions of the impact of the new budget rule on macroeconomic indicators and the ruble exchange rate have been made. Progressiveness of taxation in the oil sector will remain, but with the growth of oil prices, the ruble rate will no longer react so much. This means that the economy of oil projects will move along with oil prices. At the same time, the course’s stability will stabilize the situation for the non-oil part of the economy.

Mortgage in the Russian Federation in December 2015

In 2015, 691,943 housing mortgage loans (HML) were originated totaling to Rb 1.15 trillion, which demonstrate a reduction against 2014 in quantitative terms by 31.68% and in value terms – by 34.96%. The HML portfolio quality deteriorate. In 2015 against 2014, outstanding debt denominated in rubles as a share of residual debt went up by 0.19 p.p. to 1.04% and in foreign currency – by 7.81 p.p. to 20.37%. In 2015, weighted average ruble rate on HML for the year against 2014 moved up by 0.88 p.p. to 13.33%, and weighted average rate in foreign currency moved up by 0.57 p.p. to 9.82%.

Чем закончится кризис? Среднесрочные сценарии развития мировой и российской экономики

Авторы статьи рассматривают возможные сценарии развития экономики России в ближайшие три года. Затрагиваются такие вопросы, как рост экономических показателей в 2010 г., курс рубля, мировые и российские финансовые тенденции. Кроме этого, в статье приведен сценарный анализ динамики российской экономики в контексте мировых процессов, из которого авторами сделаны выводы по среднесрочной перспективе развития.

The Problem of the Ruble's Rate of Exchange

Two lines of economic development in contemporary society stand out in relief in the money and currency sphere. On the one hand, the purchasing power of the ruble has been steadily rising, its gold content and rate of exchange have gone up and, by virtue of the powerful advance of the socialist economy, it has become the most stable currency in the world. On the other hand, the purchasing power of the U. S. dollar has been declining systematically, the U. S. gold reserve is being disastrously drained, and there is an ever growing danger of devaluation of the dollar, whose standing has been sinking as the economic crisis keeps mounting in that country. Today, the Soviet Union is the only country in the world whose monetary unit has a higher gold content than before the First World War (in 1913). This inevitable result of the historical development of the currency of the mightiest socialist country can be properly understood only through a scientific analysis of the mechanics of the relationship of the purc...