THE NEW BUDGET RULE FOR 2018-2020

Abstract

The article considers a new mechanism for the formation of the Russian budget. This work is a continuation of the study of the draft budget for 2015 and the planning period 2016 and 2017. The new budget rule is aimed mainly at stabilizing the economy. The purpose of the rule is to reduce the dependence of the budget on market incomes. The new budget rule will be applied from 2018 onwards. The main directions of the new budget plan are defined, among which the development of the defense, space and nuclear industries is traditionally. The possible consequences of an increase in tax rates are considered. In this regard, the emphasis is on the main changes in the draft budget. The decision to change the budget rule is due to the fact that the current mechanism has a positive feedback, that is, it can contribute both to excessive strengthening of the ruble, and to its excessive weakening. The conclusions of the impact of the new budget rule on macroeconomic indicators and the ruble exchange rate have been made. Progressiveness of taxation in the oil sector will remain, but with the growth of oil prices, the ruble rate will no longer react so much. This means that the economy of oil projects will move along with oil prices. At the same time, the course’s stability will stabilize the situation for the non-oil part of the economy.