Routine Task Intensity Research Articles

AI and Digital Technology: Gender Gaps in Higher Education

Abstract This article examines gender gaps in higher education in Spain in the context of technological advancements, particularly digitalization and artificial intelligence (AI). First, analyzing descriptive Spanish data we identify significant disparities, with women overrepresented in health-related fields and underrepresented in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) disciplines. This imbalance is concerning as STEM fields offer better employment prospects and higher salaries. Then, we analyze university degrees’ exposure to technological change through routine task intensity (RTI) and AI exposure indices, as well as a novel index of exposure to emerging digital technologies from 2015 to 2024. Our findings show that women are more enrolled in degrees with higher RTI, prone to automation, and less in degrees with higher AI exposure, likely to benefit from technological advancements. This suggests technological change could widen existing labor market gender gaps. To address this, we recommend policies to boost female participation in STEM fields and adapt educational curricula to reduce routine tasks and enhance AI complementarities, ensuring equitable labor market outcomes amid technological change. (JEL codes: I23, I26, J16, J24).

The role of global value chains for worker tasks and wage inequality

AbstractThis paper studies the relationship between global value chain (GVC) participation, worker‐level routine task intensity (RTI) and wage inequality within countries. Using survey data from 34 countries and instrumenting for GVC participation, we find that higher GVC participation contributes to higher wage inequality in high‐income countries and lower wage inequality in middle‐ and low‐income countries. We distinguish between two opposite‐working channels. First, participation in GVCs directly reduces wage inequality, suppressing wages in offshorable occupations that tend to earn above the country‐specific median, and increasing wages of non‐offshorable occupations. Second, it indirectly widens within‐country wage inequality by increasing the gap in RTI, which is negatively associated with wages, between offshorable and non‐offshorable occupations. The direct effect prevails in most low‐ and middle‐income countries that receive offshored jobs, and the indirect effect prevails in high‐income countries that offshore jobs.

Trajectories of Occupational Cognitive Demands and Risk of Mild Cognitive Impairment and Dementia in Later Life: The HUNT4 70+ Study.

The cognitive reserve hypothesis posits that cognitively stimulating work delays the onset of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia. However, the effect of occupational cognitive demands across midlife on the risk of these conditions is unclear. Using a cohort study design, we evaluated the association between registry-based trajectories of occupational cognitive demands from ages 30-65 years and clinically diagnosed MCI and dementia in participants in the HUNT4 70+ Study (2017-19). Group-based trajectory modeling identified trajectories of occupational cognitive demands, measured by the routine task intensity (RTI) index (lower RTI indicates more cognitively demanding occupation) from the Occupational Information Network. Multinomial regression was implemented to estimate the relative risk ratios (RRRs) of MCI and dementia, after adjusting for age, sex, education, income, baseline hypertension, obesity, diabetes, psychiatric impairment, hearing impairment, loneliness, smoking status, and physical inactivity assessed at HUNT1-2 in 1984-1986 and 1995-1997. To handle missing data, we used inverse probability weighting to account for nonparticipation in cognitive testing and multiple imputation. Based on longitudinal RTI scores for 305 unique occupations, 4 RTI trajectory groups were identified (n = 7,003, 49.8% women, age range 69-104 years): low RTI (n = 1,431, 20.4%), intermediate-low RTI (n = 1,578, 22.5%), intermediate-high RTI (n = 2,601, 37.1%), and high RTI (n = 1,393, 19.9%). Participants in the high RTI group had a higher risk of MCI (RRR 1.74, 95% CI 1.41-2.14) and dementia (RRR 1.37, 95% CI 1.01-1.86), after adjusting for age, sex, and education compared with participants in the low RTI group. In a sensitivity analysis, controlling for income and baseline health-related factors, the point estimates were not appreciably changed (RRR 1.66, 95% CI 1.35-2.06 for MCI, and RRR 1.31, 95% CI 0.96-1.78 for dementia). People with a history of cognitively stimulating occupations during their 30s, 40s, 50s, and 60s had a lower risk of MCI and dementia older than 70 years, highlighting the importance of occupational cognitive stimulation during midlife for maintaining cognitive function in old age. Further research is required to pinpoint the specific occupational cognitive demands that are most advantageous for maintaining later-life cognitive function.

OCCUPATIONAL COGNITIVE DEMANDS AND RISK OF MILD COGNITIVE IMPAIRMENT AND DEMENTIA: THE HUNT STUDY

Abstract The cognitive reserve hypothesis posits that cognitively stimulating work may delay onset of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia. However, the impact of work histories across midlife on the risk of these conditions is unclear. We evaluated trajectories of work-related cognitive demands from ages 33-65y and their association with later clinical MCI/dementia. The HUNT4 70+ Study was used (N= 7003 participants, 49.8% women, 2017-19). Group-based-trajectory-modeling was used to identify trajectories of work-related cognitive demands, measured by routine task intensity (RTI) index (Lower RTI indicates less routine-oriented work) from online Occupational Information Network (O*NET). Multinomial regression was used to estimate the relative risk ratios (RRR) of MCI/dementia after adjusting for covariates age, sex and education, income, hypertension, obesity, diabetes, psychiatric impairment, hearing impairment, feeling of loneliness, smoking status, and physical inactivity. Four trajectories were identified; low RTI (20.4%), intermediate-low RTI (22.7%), intermediate-high RTI (36.9%), and high RTI (20.1%). Participants in the high RTI group had higher risk of MCI (RRR 1.74, 95% CI: 1.41,2.14) and dementia (RRR 1.37, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.86) after adjusting for age, sex, and education compared to participants in the low RTI group. When accounting for potential mediators, the increased risk remained for MCI but was no longer significant for dementia, indicating these mediators may account for part of the observed relationship. Our results highlight the importance of cognitive stimulation in the workplace for maintaining cognitive function. This should be taken into account, together with other known risk factors to help prevent cognitive decline in older adults.

The link between routine tasks and job polarization: A task measurement problem?

AbstractThe routine task intensity of occupations is a concept frequently used to analyse the impact of technological change on employment. However, existing studies disagree on whether it can explain the observed job polarization in advanced economies. This article first shows that these seemingly contradictory results can be explained by the different routine task measurements used in these studies. Subsequently, the validity of these measurements is discussed. Preliminary results suggest that all measurements have conceptual weaknesses but that some appear more valid than others. Job polarization may therefore be explained by occupations' routine task intensity, but only to a limited extent.

Occupational tasks and wage inequality in West Germany: A decomposition analysis

We study the role of occupational tasks as drivers of West German wage inequality. We match administrative wage data with longitudinal task data, which allow us to account for within-occupation changes in task content over time. We run RIF regression-based decompositions to quantify the contribution of changes in the returns to tasks to overall changes in the wage distribution from 1978 to 2006. We find that changes in the returns to tasks explain up to half of the increase in wage inequality since the 1990s, both at the top and the bottom of the wage distribution. Specifically, abstract tasks drive the upper wage gap, while interactive and routine tasks drive the lower wage gap. Importantly, we find low-wage occupations to have the highest routine task intensity. The association between occupational tasks and West German wage inequality is thus both stronger and different than prior research has found.

Technology, Skills, and Globalization: Explaining International Differences in Routine and Nonroutine Work Using Survey Data

Abstract The shift from routine work to nonroutine cognitive work is a key feature of labor markets globally, but there is little evidence on the extent to which tasks differ among workers performing the same jobs in different countries. This paper constructs survey-based measures of routine task intensity (RTI) of jobs consistent with those based on the U.S. O*NET database for workers in 47 countries. It confirms substantial cross-country differences in the content of work within occupations. The extent to which workers’ RTI is predicted by technology, supply of skills, globalization, and economic structure is assessed; and their contribution to the variation in RTI across countries is quantified. Technology is by far the most important factor. Supply of skills is next in importance, especially for workers in high-skilled occupations, while globalization is more important than skills for workers in low-skilled occupations. Occupational structure explains only about one-fifth of cross-country variation in RTI.

Interlocking complementarities between job design and labour contracts

In this paper, we study the existence of interlocking complementarities between job design and labour contract at the firm level. Using a formal model, we show that firms face two organizational equilibria: one in which job designs with high routine task intensity are matched with a large use of non-standard contracts; and the other in which low routine task intensity combines with a small use of non-standard contracts. These complementarities exist because while non-standard contracts allow firm to adjust to external shocks, they also provide little incentive to invest in firm-specific knowledge. We test this prediction using linked-employer-employee data from the Emilia-Romagna region. The evidence is consistent with our theory: the use of non-standard contracts is positively associated with routine task intensity at the firm level. This result holds controlling for a wide range of firm-specific and contextual covariates and it is robust to alternative estimation methods (OLS, panel and IV).

Rethinking the measurement of occupational task content

AbstractWhich tasks workers perform in their jobs is critical for how technological change plays out in the labour market. This article critically reviews existing measures of occupational task content and makes the case for rethinking how this concept is operationalised. It identifies serious shortcomings relating to the theoretical content and the empirical implementation of existing measures. Based on survey data from European Union countries between 2000 and 2015, it then introduces novel measures of routine task intensity and task complexity at the International Standard Classification of Occupations 1988 two-digit level that address these shortcomings. The indices will contribute to a more theoretically informed understanding of technological change and benefit both labour economists and sociologists in investigating the nature of recent technological change.

Technology-induced job loss risk, disability and all-cause mortality in Norway

BackgroundOngoing shifts in economic structure from automation and globalisation can affect employment and mortality, yet these relations are not well described.ObjectiveWe assess whether long-term employment and health outcomes relate systematically...

Ageing of routine jobs in Europe

We study how the de-routinisation of jobs affects workers at different ages in 12 European countries. We combine O*NET occupation content data with EU-LFS individual data for the 1998–2015 period to construct five task content measures: non-routine cognitive analytical, non-routine cognitive interpersonal, routine cognitive, routine manual, and non-routine manual physical. We find that the shift away from routine work and toward non-routine work occurred much faster among workers aged between 25 and 44 than among older workers. In the majority of countries, the ageing of the workforce occurred more quickly in occupations that were initially more routine-intensive, as the share of older workers in these occupations was rising and the share of young workers declining. At the same time, the unemployment risk related to the routine task intensity was increasing, especially among individuals between the ages of 15 and 34, and to a larger extent in countries with fast ICT capital growth and in countries not increasing their participation in global value chains.

Digitalization, routineness and employment: An exploration on Italian task-based data

This paper explores the relation between the digitalization of labour processes, the level of routineness of labour tasks and changes in employment in the case of Italy in the period 2011-16. The levels of digitalization and routineness of occupations in more than 500 4-digit ISCO professional groups are measured using data from a unique Italian profession-level survey on skill, tasks and work contents – the INAPP-ISTAT Survey on Italian Occupations (ICP), an O*NET-type dataset. Two digitalization indices are used: a digital use index, measuring the use of computers and e-mail in the workplace, and a digital tasks index, capturing the presence of a set of key digital tasks, such as those related to programming or activities concerning the use of specialized hardware. The same dataset is used to compute a composite routine task intensity index. The descriptive evidence presented in the paper shows strong differences across occupations in the level of digitalization and routineness, and the presence of a negative relation between the two in most professional groups. The econometric estimates show that digital-intensive occupations tend to grow more than the rest of the workforce, particularly when digitalization is measured relying on the digital use indicator. The level of routineness, in turn, is negatively or, in some specifications, not significantly associated to employment change. However, occupations that are both digital and routine-intensive turn out to be penalized in terms of employment growth, providing further support to (and further qualifying) the the routine biased technological change (RBTC) hypothesis. In other words, our results show that the impact of digitalization on employment is mediated by the level of routineness characterizing the tasks bundled in each occupation.

Task content routinisation, technological change and labour turnover: Evidence from China

This article addresses the unresolved question of whether recent technological change causes job instability in a non-western context. China is now the world’s largest user of industrial robots. A Lewis turning point has been predicted, involving a transition from a plentiful supply of rural low-cost workers to a labour shortage economy in which rising labour costs drive labour-technology substitution. The routine-biased technological change hypothesis suggests that technology-induced routinisation in job task content has a profound impact on employment structure. This study captures the extent of routinisation of jobs in the transitional context of China and examines the incidence and impact of routinisation on labour turnover in the labour market. Using rotating panel data from the China Labour-force Dynamics Survey 2012, 2014 and 2016, this study, based on individual information with regard to flexibility in work schedules and degree of autonomy in workload and task content on the job, follows a recently developed measure to construct a routine intensity index and indicates a division into three routine intensity groups. The empirical findings show that the probability of job mobility is significantly increased with the magnitude of routine task intensity, suggesting that the process of technology-induced routinisation is strongly associated with labour turnover.JEL Codes: J63, J20

Automation, Occupational Earnings Trends, and the Moderating Role of Organized Labor

AbstractRoutine-biased technological change has emerged as the dominant explanation for the differential earnings growth of occupations at greater risk of automation, such as machine operators or office clerks, relative to less routine occupations. In contrast, this paper finds that the declining earnings returns to an occupation’s routine task intensity (RTI) can largely be attributed to the decline of organized labor. Using individual-level data on 3.3 million employed adults across the United States from 1983 to 2017, this paper finds that organized labor has two countervailing effects on occupations at greater risk of automation. First, higher union coverage within a state and industry inhibits the decline in earnings returns to an occupation’s RTI. Second, higher union coverage hastens the decline in employment shares of occupations with higher RTI. The result is that occupations at greater risk of automation experience more favorable earnings growth where unions are more resilient, but at the cost of accelerated declines in their employment shares. Counterfactual analyses demonstrate that if union coverage in the United States had remained stable at 1983 levels, the earnings returns to an occupation’s RTI might not have declined from 1983 to 2017, and the observed pattern of occupational earnings polarization in the 1990s might not have occurred. However, the mean RTI of occupations might have declined by an additional 21 percent from 1983 to 2017 relative to the observed decline. The findings suggest that the social consequences of automation are conditional on the strength of organized labor.

Automatability and Capital Structure

This paper presents evidence that the exposure to automation technologies has a positive impact on a firm’s financial leverage. The effects are more pronounced in firms with greater labor costs, routine task intensity, firing costs, and union coverage. The results are robust when we instrument a firm’s exposure to automation technologies using the robotics adoption in European countries. Our analysis suggests that the exposure to automation technologies creates a replacement threat that weakens workers’ bargaining power, compressing their wage premiums for bearing financial distress risk and reducing wage rigidity, both of which allow firms to increase financial leverage.

Technology, Skills, and Globalization: Explaining International Differences in Routine and Nonroutine Work Using Survey Data

The shift away from manual and routine cognitive work, and towards non-routine cognitive work is a key feature of labor markets. There is no evidence, however, if the relative importance of various tasks differs between workers performing seemingly similar jobs in different countries. We develop worker-level, survey-based measures of task content of jobs – non-routine cognitive analytical and personal, routine cognitive and manual – that are consistent with widely-used occupation-specific measures based on O*NET database. We apply them to representative surveys conducted in 42 countries at different stages of development. We find substantial cross-country differences in the content of work within occupations. Routine task intensity (RTI) of jobs decreases significantly with GDP per capita for high-skill occupations but not for middle- and low skill occupations. We estimate the determinants of workers’ RTI as a function of technology (computer use), globalization (specialization in global value chains), structural change, and supply of skills, and decompose their role in accounting for the variation in RTI across countries. Computer use, better education, and higher literacy skills are related to lower RTI. Globalization (as measured by sector foreign value-added share) increases RTI in poorer countries but reduces RTI in richer countries. Differences in technology endowments and in skills’ supply matter most for cross-country differences in RTI, with globalization also important. Technology contributes the most to the differences in RTI among workers in high-skilled occupations and non-off-shorable occupations; globalization contributes the most to differences among workers in low-skilled occupations and offshorable occupations.

Technology, Skills, and Globalization: Explaining International Differences in Routine and Nonroutine Work Using Survey Data

The shift away from manual and routine cognitive work, and towards non-routine cognitive work is a key feature of labor markets. There is no evidence, however, if the relative importance of various tasks differs between workers performing seemingly similar jobs in different countries. We develop worker-level, survey-based measures of task content of jobs – non-routine cognitive analytical and personal, routine cognitive and manual – that are consistent with widely-used occupation-specific measures based on O*NET database. We apply them to representative surveys conducted in 42 countries at different stages of development. We find substantial cross-country differences in the content of work within occupations. Routine task intensity (RTI) of jobs decreases significantly with GDP per capita for high-skill occupations but not for middle- and low-skill occupations. We estimate the determinants of workers’ RTI as a function of technology (computer use), globalization (specialization in global value chains), structural change, and supply of skills, and decompose their role in accounting for the variation in RTI across countries. Computer use, better education, and higher literacy skills are related to lower RTI. Globalization (as measured by sector foreign value-added share) increases RTI in poorer countries but reduces RTI in richer countries. Differences in technology endowments and in skills’ supply matter most for cross-country differences in RTI, with globalization also important. Technology contributes the most to the differences in RTI among workers in high-skilled occupations and non-off-shorable occupations; globalization contributes the most to differences among workers in low-skilled occupations and offshorable occupations.

Polarized labor demand owing to routine-biased technological change: The case of Korea from 1993 to 2015

With the development of technologies that efficiently enable human resources to be replaced or substituted across occupations, routine-biased technological change (RBTC) is currently pervasive in developed countries. This study finds statistical and empirical evidence for RBTC in Korea from 1993 to 2015 using the routine task intensity (RTI) index. The changing employment structure shows a decline in middle-skilled occupation groups and concurrent rise in high- and low-skilled occupation groups in Korea in the sample period of time. Empirical results confirm that employees in routine-intensive occupations are more vulnerable to job loss and further potential wage polarization.

An Analysis of FDI Effects on the Labor Market in Korea

This paper analyzes the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the labor market in Korea, quantitatively and qualitatively. In particular, we measure the routine task-intensity (RTI) index similar to that of Autor and Dorn (2013) to investigate the FDI effect on Korean labor market qualitatively. It is shown that the RTI index is higher in the manufacturing sector than in the non-manufacturing sector; the FDI effect on employment in the manufacturing sector is insignificant but in the non-manufacturing sector, it is significantly positive. Moreover, the FDI effect on per capita labor costs and the share of full-time jobs is significantly positive in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. In addition, the FDI effect on the RTI index is significantly negative in the manufacturing sector but is insignificant in the non-manufacturing sector. Finally, an analysis using a propensity score matching technique shows that the employment in foreign-invested companies is higher than that in domestic companies, leading us to think that relatively insufficiently competitive domestic companies are crowded out in the market.

Job tasks and the comparative structure of income and employment: Routine task intensity and offshorability for the LIS*

Comparative sociologists have long considered occupations to be a key source of inequality. However, data constraints make comparative research on two of the more important contemporary drivers of occupational stratification – globalization and technological change – relatively scarce. This article introduces a new dataset on occupational ‘routine task intensity’ (RTI) and ‘offshorability’ (OFFS) for use with the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS). To produce these data, we recoded 23 country-specific occupational schemes (74 LIS country-years) to the two-digit ISCO-88 scheme. When combined with the handful of LIS countries already reporting their occupations in ISCO-88, we produce individual level RTI and OFFS scores for 38 LIS countries and 160 LIS country-years. To assess the validity of these recodes, we compare average labor-income ratios predicted by recoded ISCO-88 occupational categories to those predicted by reported ISCO-88 occupational categories within countries that transitioned from country-specific to ISCO-88 codes over time. To assess the utility of these RTI and OFFS scores and advance the literature on income polarization, we analyze their association with work hours and labor incomes in the global North and South. Both covariates correlate with work hours in ways that are consistent with previous research and additional theoretical considerations. Moreover, we show that both RTI and OFFS contribute to income polarization directly in the North, but not in the South. This article generates a public good data infrastructure that will be of use to a wide variety of social scientists, and brings new evidence to bear on the question of income polarization in rich democracies.