Routine Surveillance Data Research Articles

Enhanced automated detection of outbreaks of a rare antimicrobial-resistant bacterial species.

Surveillance of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a crucial strategy to combat AMR. Using routine surveillance data, we could detect and control hospital outbreaks of AMR bacteria as early as possible. Previously, we developed a framework for automatic detection of clusters of AMR bacteria using SaTScan, a free cluster detection tool integrated into WHONET. WHONET is a free software used globally for microbiological surveillance data management. We applied this framework to data from the Japan Nosocomial Infections Surveillance (JANIS), one of the world's most comprehensive and largest national AMR surveillance systems. Although WHONET-SaTScan has several cluster detection algorithms, no published studies have compared how different algorithms can produce varying results in cluster detection. Here, we conducted a comparison to detect clusters of vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE), which has been rare in Japan, by analyzing combinations of resistance to several key antimicrobials ("resistance profiles") using the comprehensive national routine AMR surveillance data of JANIS and validated the detection capabilities of each algorithm using publicly available reports of VRE clusters. All publicly reported VRE hospital outbreaks were detected as statistical clusters using the space-time uniform algorithm implemented in WHONET-SaTScan. In contrast, only 18.8% of the publicly reported outbreaks were detected using another algorithm (space-time permutation). The space-time uniform algorithm was also effective in identifying hospital wards affected by outbreaks attributed to specific resistance profiles. Although half of the publicly reported outbreaks were attributed to VRE resistant to five particular antimicrobials, four other resistance profiles also contributed to the outbreaks, highlighting the diversity of AMR bacteria within these occurrences. Our comparison revealed a clear advantage in using an algorithm (space-time uniform) for detecting VRE clusters in WHONET-SaTScan based on national surveillance data and further demonstrated the capability to distinguish detected clusters based on resistance profiles.

Built Environment and SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Long-Term Care Facilities: Cross-Sectional Survey and Data Linkage

ObjectivesTo describe the built environment in long-term care facilities (LTCF) and its association with introduction and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection. DesignCross-sectional survey with linkage to routine surveillance data. Setting and ParticipantsLTCFs in England caring for adults ≥65 years old, participating in the VIVALDI study (ISRCTN14447421) were eligible. Data were included from residents and staff. MethodsCross-sectional survey of the LTCF built environment with linkage to routinely collected asymptomatic and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 testing and vaccination data between September 1, 2020, and March 31, 2022. We used individual and LTCF level Poisson and Negative Binomial regression models to identify risk factors for 4 outcomes: incidence rate of resident infections and outbreaks, outbreak size, and duration. We considered interactions with variant transmissibility (pre vs post Omicron dominance). ResultsA total of 134 of 151 (88.7%) LTCFs participated in the survey, contributing data for 13,010 residents and 17,766 staff. After adjustment and stratification, outbreak incidence (measuring infection introduction) was only associated with SARS-CoV-2 incidence in the community [incidence rate ratio (IRR) for high vs low incidence, 2.84; 95% CI, 1.85–4.36]. Characteristics of the built environment were associated with transmission outcomes and differed by variant transmissibility. For resident infection incidence, factors included number of storeys (0.64; 0.43–0.97) and bedrooms (1.04; 1.02–1.06), and purpose-built vs converted buildings (1.99; 1.08–3.69). Air quality was associated with outbreak size (dry vs just right 1.46; 1.00–2.13). Funding model (0.99; 0.99–1.00), crowding (0.98; 0.96–0.99), and bedroom temperature (1.15; 1.01–1.32) were associated with outbreak duration. Conclusions and ImplicationsWe describe previously undocumented diversity in LTCF built environments. LTCFs have limited opportunities to prevent SARS-CoV-2 introduction, which was only driven by community incidence. However, adjusting the built environment, for example by isolating infected residents or improving airflow, may reduce transmission, although data quality was limited by subjectivity. Identifying LTCF built environment modifications that prevent infection transmission should be a research priority.

The effect of combination prevention strategies on HIV incidence among gay and bisexual men who have sex with men in the UK: a model-based analysis

In the UK, the number of new HIV diagnoses among gay and bisexual men who have sex with men (GBMSM) has decreased substantially. We aimed to understand the contribution of different interventions in reducing HIV incidence so far; to estimate future HIV incidence with continuation of current policies and with further scaling up of current interventions; and to estimate the maximum additional annual cost that should be spent towards these interventions for them to offer value for money. We calibrated a dynamic, individual-based, stochastic simulation model, the HIV Synthesis Model, to multiple sources of data on HIV among GBMSM aged 15 years or older in the UK. Primarily these were routine HIV surveillance data collected by the UK Health Security Agency. We compared HIV incidence in 2022 with the counterfactual incidence: if HIV testing rates stopped increasing in 2012 and the policy of antiretroviral therapy (ART) at diagnosis was not introduced in mid-2015; if pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) was not introduced; if condom use was low from 2012 in all GBMSM, at levels similar to those observed in 1980; and in the first and second scenario combined. We also projected future outcomes under the assumption of continuation of current policies and considering increases in PrEP and HIV testing uptake and a decrease in condomless sex. Our model estimated a 77% (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 61-88) decline in HIV incidence since around 2014, with an estimated 597 infections ([90% UI 312-956]; 1·1 per 1000 person-years [90% UI 0·6-1·8]) in men aged 15-64 years in 2022. Both PrEP introduction and increased HIV testing with ART initiation at diagnosis each had a substantial effect on HIV incidence. Without PrEP introduction, we estimate there would have been 2·16 times the number of infections that actually occurred (90% UI 1·06-3·75) between 2012 and 2022; without increased HIV testing and ART initiation at diagnosis there would have been 2·18 times the number of infections that actually occurred (1·18-3·60), and if condomless sex was at the levels before the HIV epidemic, there would have been 2·27 times the number of infections that actually occurred (0·9-5·4). If rates of testing, ART use, and PrEP use remain as they are currently, there is a predicted decline in incidence to 388 HIV infections in 2025 (90% UI 226-650) and to 263 (137-433) in 2030. Increases in HIV testing and PrEP use were predicted to accelerate the decline in HIV incidence. Given the quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) benefit and a cost-effectiveness threshold of £30 000 per QALY gained, in order to be cost-effective an additional £1·62 million could be spent per year to increase testing levels by 34% (90% UI 25-46) and PrEP use by 55% (10-107). To achieve that, a 16% reduction in the cost of delivery of testing and PrEP would be required. Combination prevention, including a PrEP strategy, played a major role in the reduction in HIV incidence observed so far in the UK among GBMSM. Continuation of current activities should lead to a continued decline; however, it is unlikely to lead to reaching the target of fewer than 50 HIV infections per year among GBMSM by 2030. It will be important to reduce costs for testing and PrEP for their continued expansion to be cost-effective. National Institute for Health Research under its Programme Grants for Applied Research Programme and Medical Research Council-UK Research and Innovation.

Retrospective evaluation of real-time estimates of global COVID-19 transmission trends and mortality forecasts.

Since 8th March 2020 up to the time of writing, we have been producing near real-time weekly estimates of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and forecasts of deaths due to COVID-19 for all countries with evidence of sustained transmission, shared online. We also developed a novel heuristic to combine weekly estimates of transmissibility to produce forecasts over a 4-week horizon. Here we present a retrospective evaluation of the forecasts produced between 8th March to 29th November 2020 for 81 countries. We evaluated the robustness of the forecasts produced in real-time using relative error, coverage probability, and comparisons with null models. During the 39-week period covered by this study, both the short- and medium-term forecasts captured well the epidemic trajectory across different waves of COVID-19 infections with small relative errors over the forecast horizon. The model was well calibrated with 56.3% and 45.6% of the observations lying in the 50% Credible Interval in 1-week and 4-week ahead forecasts respectively. The retrospective evaluation of our models shows that simple transmission models calibrated using routine disease surveillance data can reliably capture the epidemic trajectory in multiple countries. The medium-term forecasts can be used in conjunction with the short-term forecasts of COVID-19 mortality as a useful planning tool as countries continue to relax public health measures.

Epidemiology of common infectious diseases before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Bavaria, Germany, 2016 to 2021: an analysis of routine surveillance data.

BackgroundUnprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic also had an effect on other infectious diseases.AimWe aimed to determine their impact on transmission and diagnosis of notifiable diseases other than COVID-19 in Bavaria, Germany, in 2020 and 2021.MethodsWe compared weekly cases of 15 notifiable infectious diseases recorded in Bavaria between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2021 in time series analyses, median age and time-to-diagnosis using Wilcoxon rank sum test and hospitalisation rates using univariable logistic regression during three time periods: pre-pandemic (weeks 1 2016-9 2020), pandemic years 1 (weeks 10-52 2020) and 2 (2021).ResultsWeekly case numbers decreased in pandemic year 1 for all diseases assessed except influenza, Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis; markedly for norovirus gastroenteritis (IRR = 0.15; 95% CI: 0.12-0.20) and pertussis (IRR = 0.22; 95% CI: 0.18-0.26). In pandemic year 2, influenza (IRR = 0.04; 95% CI: 0.02-0.09) and pertussis (IRR = 0.11; 95% CI: 0.09-0.14) decreased markedly, but also chickenpox, dengue fever, Haemophilus influenzae invasive infection, hepatitis C, legionellosis, noro- and rotavirus gastroenteritis and salmonellosis. For enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli infections, median age decreased in pandemic years 1 and 2 (4 years, interquartile range (IQR): 1-32 and 3 years, IQR: 1-18 vs 11 years, IQR: 2-42); hospitalisation proportions increased in pandemic year 1 (OR = 1.60; 95% CI: 1.08-2.34).ConclusionReductions for various infectious diseases and changes in case characteristics in 2020 and 2021 indicate reduced transmission of notifiable diseases other than COVID-19 due to interventions and under-detection.

Quantifying patient- and hospital-level antimicrobial resistance dynamics in Staphylococcus aureus from routinely collected data.

Introduction. Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) to all antibiotic classes has been found in the pathogen Staphylococcus aureus. The reported prevalence of these resistances varies, driven by within-host AMR evolution at the patient level, and between-host transmission at the hospital level. Without dense longitudinal sampling, pragmatic analysis of AMR dynamics at multiple levels using routine surveillance data is essential to inform control measures.Gap Statement. The value and limitations of routinely collected hospital data to gain insight into AMR dynamics at the hospital and individual levels simultaneously are unclear.Methodology. We explored S. aureus AMR diversity in 70 000 isolates from a UK paediatric hospital between 2000-2021, using electronic datasets containing multiple routinely collected isolates per patient with phenotypic antibiograms and information on hospitalization and antibiotic consumption.Results. At the hospital level, the proportion of isolates that were meticillin-resistant (MRSA) increased between 2014-2020 from 25-50 %, before sharply decreasing to 30%, likely due to a change in inpatient demographics. Temporal trends in the proportion of isolates resistant to different antibiotics were often correlated in MRSA, but independent in meticillin-susceptible S. aureus. Ciprofloxacin resistance in MRSA decreased from 70-40 % of tested isolates between 2007-2020, likely linked to a national policy to reduce fluoroquinolone usage in 2007. At the patient level, we identified frequent AMR diversity, with 4 % of patients ever positive for S. aureus simultaneously carrying, at some point, multiple isolates with different resistances. We detected changes over time in AMR diversity in 3 % of patients ever positive for S. aureus. These changes equally represented gain and loss of resistance.Conclusion. Within this routinely collected dataset, we found that 65 % of changes in resistance within a patient's S. aureus population could not be explained by antibiotic exposure or between-patient transmission of bacteria, suggesting that within-host evolution via frequent gain and loss of AMR genes may be responsible for these changing AMR profiles. Our study highlights the value of exploring existing routine surveillance data to determine underlying mechanisms of AMR. These insights may substantially improve our understanding of the importance of antibiotic exposure variation, and the success of single S. aureus clones.

How remote sensing data and routine surveillance data can support the forecasting of malaria cases according to geographical risk in Burkina Faso

How remote sensing data and routine surveillance data can support the forecasting of malaria cases according to geographical risk in Burkina Faso

COVID-19 positive cases among asymptomatic individuals during the second wave in Ndola, Zambia.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a worldwide public health concern for healthcare workers. About 80% of cases appear to be asymptomatic, and about 3% may experience hospitalisation and later die. Less than 20% of studies have looked at the positivity rate of asymptomatic individuals. This study investigated the COVID-19 positivity rates among asymptomatic individuals during the second COVID-19 wave at one of Zambia's largest testing centre. This was a retrospective cross-sectional study conducted on routine surveillance and laboratory data at the Tropical Diseases Research Centre COVID-19 laboratory in Ndola, Zambia, from 01 December 2020 to 31 March 2021. The study population was made up of persons that had tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection as a requirement for travel. Microsoft Excel was used to come up with an epidemiological curve of daily COVID-19 positive cases; proportions for gender were described using frequencies and percentages. A total of 11 144 asymptomatic individuals tested for SARS-CoV-2 were sampled for the study and 1781 (16.0%) returned positive results. The median age among those tested was 36 years (interquartile range: 29-46). Testing for COVID-19 peaked in the month of January 2021 (37.4%) and declined in March 2021 (21.0%). The epidemiological curve showed a combination of continuous and propagated point-source transmission. The positivity rate of 16.0% among asymptomatic individuals was high and could imply continued community transmission, especially during January 2021 and February 2021. We recommend heightened testing for SARS-CoV-2 among asymptomatic individuals. This study adds critical knowledge to the transmission of COVID-19 among asymptomatic travellers who are usually a key population in driving community infection. This knowledge is critical in instituting evidence-based interventions in the screening and management of travellers, and its control.

The prevalence and risk factors for tuberculosis among healthcare workers in Yogyakarta, Indonesia.

Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at risk of contracting TB, particularly when in high tuberculosis (TB) burden settings. Routine surveillance data and evidence are limited on the burden of TB amongst HCWs in Indonesia. We aimed to measure the prevalence of TB infection (TBI) and disease among HCWs in four healthcare facilities in Yogyakarta province in Indonesia, and explore risk factors for TBI. A cross-sectional TB screening study targeted all HCWs from four pre-selected facilities (1 hospital, 3 primary care) in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Voluntary screening included symptom assessment, Chest X-ray (CXR), Xpert MTB/RIF (if indicated) and tuberculin skin test (TST). Analyses were descriptive and included multivariable logistic regression. Of 792 HCWs, 681 consented (86%) to the screening; 59% (n = 401) were female, 62% were medical staff (n = 421), 77% worked in the one participating hospital (n = 524), and the median time working in the health sector was 13 years (IQR: 6-25 years). Nearly half had provided services for people with TB (46%, n = 316) and 9% reported ever having TB (n = 60). Among participants with presumptive TB (15%, n = 99/662), none were diagnosed microbiologically or clinically with active TB disease. TBI was detected in 25% (95% CI: 22-30; n = 112/441) of eligible HCWs with a TST result. A significant association was found between TB infection and being male (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) 2.02 (95%CI: 1.29-3.17)), currently working in the participating hospital compared to primary care (aOR 3.15 (95%CI: 1.75-5.66)), and older age (1.05 OR increase per year of life between 19-73 years (95%CI: 1.02-1.06)). This study supports prioritisation of HCWs as a high-risk group for TB infection and disease, and the need for comprehensive prevention and control programs in Indonesia. Further, it identifies characteristics of HCWs in Yogyakarta at higher risk of TBI, who could be prioritised in screening programs if universal coverage of prevention and control measures cannot be achieved.

The Reemergence of Syphilis Among Females of Reproductive Age and Congenital Syphilis in Victoria, Australia, 2010 to 2020: A Public Health Priority.

Syphilis notifications in Victoria, Australia, have been increasing over the past decade, with an increase in infectious syphilis (syphilis of less than 2 years in duration) cases in females of reproductive age and an associated reemergence of congenital syphilis (CS). Before 2017, there had been 2 CS cases in the preceding 26 years. This study describes the epidemiology of infectious syphilis among females of reproductive age and CS in Victoria. Routine surveillance data provided by mandatory Victorian syphilis case notifications were extracted and grouped into a descriptive analysis of infectious syphilis and CS incidence data from 2010 to 2020. In 2020, infectious syphilis notifications in Victoria were approximately 5 times more than 2010 (n = 289 in 2010 to n = 1440 in 2020), with a more than 7-fold rise among females (n = 25 in 2010 to n = 186 in 2020). Females made up 29% (n = 60 of 209) of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander notifications occurring between 2010 and 2020. Between 2017 and 2020, 67% of notifications in females (n = 456 of 678) were diagnosed in low-caseload clinics, at least 13% (n = 87 of 678) of all female notifications were known to be pregnant at diagnosis, and there were 9 CS notifications. Cases of infectious syphilis in females of reproductive age and CS are on the rise in Victoria, necessitating sustained public health action. Increasing awareness among individuals and clinicians, and health system strengthening, particularly targeting primary care where most females are diagnosed before pregnancy, are required. Treating infections before or promptly during pregnancy and undertaking partner notification and treatment to reduce risk of reinfection are critical to reducing CS cases.

Development of an Enhanced Surveillance and Epidemiology Program to Support the Birmingham 2022 Commonwealth Games in England: Outcomes and Lessons Learned

Introduction:The 2022 Commonwealth Games (B2022) was hosted by Birmingham, United Kingdom (UK) from July, 28 2022 to August 8, 2022. As a major global sporting event and mass gathering, B2022 included over 4,500 athletes (from 72 countries and territories) and attracted 1.5 million spectators. Robust public health surveillance and support for health protection incidents was required from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) to protect the health of both those directly involved in B2022, and the local population.Method:UKHSA surveillance activities in the UK West Midlands region were enhanced, utilizing lessons learned from the response to the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games and the 2021 G7 Summit (hosted in England). Enhancements included: adaptation of existing and development of new methods for the identification of increased activity of a range of pathogens/diseases/conditions of particular concern to a mass gathering; standardized daily situation reporting to inform both public health action and the B2022 organizing committee. Three streams of routine UKHSA surveillance data were assessed each day: a UKHSA health protection/clinical management system, statutory laboratory reports of infection, and syndromic surveillance. Bespoke surveillance was also implemented using B2022 health data sources.Results:Enhanced daily surveillance activities successfully met the need for next-day public health surveillance and reporting during B2022. No outbreaks or incidents of public health significance to the Games were identified. Syndromic surveillance reported an increased impact on local health services due to periods of extremely hot weather before and following the competition period, although these impacts were not unique to the Birmingham area.Conclusion:Surveillance and epidemiology reporting for B2022 provided reassurance there were no incidents/outbreaks of public health significance to the Games. The enhancements made will inform future routine surveillance and reporting activities and will be employed for similar activities during future mass gathering events.

Mapping malaria incidence using routine health facility surveillance data in Uganda

IntroductionMaps of malaria risk are important tools for allocating resources and tracking progress. Most maps rely on cross-sectional surveys of parasite prevalence, but health facilities represent an underused and powerful...

Impact of free hypertension pharmacy program and social distancing policy on stroke: A longitudinal study.

The estimated lifetime risk of stroke was the highest in East Asia worldwide, especially in China. Antihypertensive therapy can significantly reduce stroke mortality. However, blood pressure control is poor. Medication adherence is a barrier as patients' out-of-pocket costs have risen. We aimed to take advantage of a free hypertension pharmacy intervention and quantified the impact on stroke mortality. A free pharmaceutical intervention program was implemented in Deqing, Zhejiang province in April 2018. Another non-pharmaceutical intervention, social distancing due to the pandemic of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), was also key to affecting stroke mortality. We retrospectively collected the routine surveillance data of stroke deaths from Huzhou Municipal Center for Disease Prevention and Control in 2013-2020 and obtained within-city mobility data from Baidu Migration in 2019-2020, then we quantified the effects of both pharmaceutical intervention and social distancing using Serfling regression model. Compared to the predicted number, the actual number of stroke deaths was significantly lower by 10% (95% CI, 6-15%; p < 0.001) from April 2018 to December 2020 in Deqing. Specifically, there was a reduction of 19% (95% CI, 10-28%; p < 0.001) in 2018. Moreover, we observed a 5% (95% CI, -4 - 14%; p = 0.28) increase in stroke mortality due to the adverse effect of COVID-19 but it wasn't statistically significant. Free hypertension pharmacy program has great potential to prevent considerable stroke deaths. In the future, the free supply of low-cost, essential medications that target patients with hypertension at increased risk of stroke could be taken into account in formulating public health policies and guiding allocations of health care resources.

Climatic, land-use and socio-economic factors can predict malaria dynamics at fine spatial scales relevant to local health actors: Evidence from rural Madagascar.

While much progress has been achieved over the last decades, malaria surveillance and control remain a challenge in countries with limited health care access and resources. High-resolution predictions of malaria incidence using routine surveillance data could represent a powerful tool to health practitioners by targeting malaria control activities where and when they are most needed. Here, we investigate the predictors of spatio-temporal malaria dynamics in rural Madagascar, estimated from facility-based passive surveillance data. Specifically, this study integrates climate, land-use, and representative household survey data to explain and predict malaria dynamics at a high spatial resolution (i.e., by Fokontany, a cluster of villages) relevant to health care practitioners. Combining generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) and path analyses, we found that socio-economic, land use and climatic variables are all important predictors of monthly malaria incidence at fine spatial scales, via both direct and indirect effects. In addition, out-of-sample predictions from our model were able to identify 58% of the Fokontany in the top quintile for malaria incidence and account for 77% of the variation in the Fokontany incidence rank. These results suggest that it is possible to build a predictive framework using environmental and social predictors that can be complementary to standard surveillance systems and help inform control strategies by field actors at local scales.

Tick-borne encephalitis: Acute clinical manifestations and severity in 581 cases from Germany, 2018–2020

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a growing public health problem with an average of 361 cases notified annually to Germany's passive surveillance system since 2001. We aimed to assess clinical manifestations and identify covariates associated with severity. We included cases notified 2018-2020 in a prospective cohort study and collected data with telephone interviews, questionnaires to general practitioners, and hospital discharge summaries. Covariates' causal associations with severity were evaluated with multivariable logistic regression, adjusted for variables identified via directed acyclic graphs. Of 1220 eligible cases, 581 (48%) participated. Of these, 97.1% were not (fully) vaccinated. TBE was severe in 20.3% of cases (children: 9.1%, ≥70-year-olds: 48.6%). Routine surveillance data underreported the proportion of cases with central nervous system involvement (56% vs. 84%). Ninety percent required hospitalization, 13.8% intensive care, and 33.4% rehabilitation. Severity was most notably associated with age (odds ratio (OR): 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02-1.05), hypertension (OR: 2.27, 95%CI: 1.37-3.75), and monophasic disease course (OR: 1.67, 95%CI: 1.08-2.58). We observed substantial TBE burden and health service utilization, suggesting that awareness of TBE severity and vaccine preventability should be increased. Knowledge of severity-associated factors may help inform patients' decision to get vaccinated.

Usefulness of disease surveillance data in enhanced early warning of the cholera outbreak in Southwest Cameroon, 2018

IntroductionThis study assessed the timeliness and completeness of disease surveillance data for early warning of the cholera outbreak during the socio-political crisis of Southwest Cameroon in 2018. It determined how routine integrated disease surveillance and response (IDSR) data was used for preventative actions and the challenges faced by key health staff in IDSR based decision-making.MethodsThis was a mixed-methods study conducted from June 1st to September 30th 2021. District Health Information System 2 (DHIS2) data from January 2018 to December 2020 for the Southwest region of Cameroon were analysed using simple linear regression on EPI Info 7.2 to determine a potential association of the sociopolitical crisis with timeliness and completeness of data. Qualitative data generated through in-depth interviews of key informants were coded and analyzed using NVivo 12.ResultsDuring high conflict intensity (2018 and 2019), average data timeliness and completeness were 16.3% and 67.2%, respectively, increasing to 40.7% and 80.2%, respectively, in 2020 when the conflict intensity had reduced. There was a statistically significant weak correlation between reduced conflict intensity and increased data timeliness (R2 = 0.17, p = 0.016) and there was also a weak correlation between reduced conflict intensity and data completeness but this was not statistically significant (R2 = 0.01, p = 0.642). During high conflict intensity, the Kumba and Buea health districts had the highest data timeliness (17.2% and 96.2%, respectively) and data completeness (78.8% and 40.4%, respectively) possibly because of proximity to reporting sites and effective performance based financing. Components of IDSR that should be maintained included the electronic report aspect of the DHIS2 and the supportive supervision conducted during the outbreak. Staff demotivation, the parallel multiplicity of data entry tools, poor communication, shortage of staff and the non-usability of data generated by the DHIS2 were systemic challenges to the early alert dimension of the IDSR system. Non–systemic challenges included high levels of insecurity, far to reach outbreak sites and health personnel being targeted during the conflict.ConclusionIn general, routine IDSR data was not a reliable way of providing early warning of the 2018 cholera outbreak because of incomplete and late reports. Nonetheless, reduced conflict intensity correlated with increased timeliness and completeness of data reporting. The IDSR was substantially challenged during the crisis, and erroneous data generated by the DHIS 2 significantly undermined the efforts and resources invested to control the outbreak. The Ministry of Public Health should reinforce efforts to build a reporting system that produces people-centered actionable data that engages health risk management during socio-political crises.

Optimizing Routine Malaria Surveillance Data in Urban Environments: A Case Study in Maputo City, Mozambique.

In urban settings in malaria-endemic countries, malaria incidence is not well characterized and assumed to be typically very low and consisting largely of imported infections. In such contexts, surveillance systems should adapt to ensure that data are of sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to inform appropriate programmatic interventions. The aim of this research was to 1) assess spatial and temporal trends in reported malaria cases in Maputo City, Mozambique, using an expanded case notification form and 2) to determine how malaria surveillance can be optimized to characterize the local epidemiological context, which can then be used to inform targeted entomological investigations and guide implementation of localized malaria responses. This study took place in all six health facilities of KaMavota District in Maputo City, Mozambique. A questionnaire was administered to all confirmed cases from November 2019 to August 2021. Households of cases were retrospectively geolocated using local landmarks as reference. Overall, 2,380 malaria cases were reported, with the majority being uncomplicated (97.7%) and a median age of 21 years; 70.8% of cases had reported traveling outside the city in the past month with nine reporting traveling internationally. Maps of the 1,314 malaria cases that were geolocated showed distinct spatial patterns. The expanded case notification form enables a more granular overview of the malaria epidemiology in Maputo City; the geolocation data clearly show the areas where endemic transmission is likely, thus informing where resources should be prioritized. As urbanization is rapidly increasing in malaria endemic areas, identifying systems and key variables to collect ensures an operational way to characterize urban malaria through optimization of routine data to inform decision-making.

National seroepidemiological study of COVID-19 after the initial rollout of vaccines: Before and at the peak of the Omicron-dominant period in Japan.

Based on routine surveillance data, Japan has been affected much less by COVID-19 compared with other countries. To validate this, we aimed to estimate SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and examine sociodemographic factors associated with cumulative infection in Japan. A population-based serial cross-sectional seroepidemiological investigation was conducted in five prefectures in December 2021 (pre-Omicron) and February-March 2022 (Omicron [BA.1/BA.2]-peak). Anti-nucleocapsid and anti-spike antibodies were measured to detect infection-induced and vaccine/infection-induced antibodies, respectively. Logistic regression was used to identify associations between various factors and past infection. Among 16 296 participants (median age: 53 [43-64] years), overall prevalence of infection-induced antibodies was 2.2% (95% CI: 1.9-2.5%) in December 2021 and 3.5% (95% CI: 3.1-3.9%) in February-March 2022. Factors associated with past infection included those residing in urban prefectures (Tokyo: aOR 3.37 [95% CI: 2.31-4.91], Osaka: aOR 3.23 [95% CI: 2.17-4.80]), older age groups (60s: aOR 0.47 [95% CI 0.29-0.74], 70s: aOR 0.41 [95% CI 0.24-0.70]), being vaccinated (twice: aOR 0.41 [95% CI: 0.28-0.61], three times: aOR 0.21 [95% CI: 0.12-0.36]), individuals engaged in occupations such as long-term care workers (aOR: 3.13 [95% CI: 1.47-6.66]), childcare workers (aOR: 3.63 [95% CI: 1.60-8.24]), food service workers (aOR: 3.09 [95% CI: 1.50-6.35]), and history of household contact (aOR: 26.4 [95% CI: 20.0-34.8]) or non-household contact (aOR: 5.21 [95% CI:3.80-7.14]) in February-March 2022. Almost all vaccinated individuals (15 670/15 681) acquired binding antibodies with higher titers among booster dose recipients. Before Omicron, the cumulative burden was >10 times lower in Japan (2.2%) compared with the US (33%), the UK (25%), or global estimates (45%), but most developed antibodies owing to vaccination.

Impact of randomised wmel Wolbachia deployments on notified dengue cases and insecticide fogging for dengue control in Yogyakarta City

ABSTRACT Background Releases of Wolbachia (wMel)-infected Aedes aegypti mosquitoes significantly reduced the incidence of virologically confirmed dengue in a previous cluster randomised trial in Yogyakarta City, Indonesia. Following the trial, wMel releases were extended to the untreated control areas, to achieve city-wide coverage of Wolbachia. Objective In this predefined analysis, we evaluated the impact of the wMel deployments in Yogyakarta on dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) case notifications and on the frequency of perifocal insecticide spraying by public health teams. Methods Monthly counts of DHF cases notified to the Yogyakarta District Health Office between January 2006 and May 2022 were modelled as a function of time-varying local wMel treatment status (fully- and partially-treated vs untreated, and by quintile of wMel prevalence). The frequency of insecticide fogging in wMel-treated and untreated areas was analysed using negative binomial regression. Results Notified DHF incidence was 83% lower in fully treated vs untreated periods (IRR 0.17 [95% CI 0.14, 0.20]), and 78% lower in areas with 80–100% wMel prevalence compared to areas with 0–20% wMel (IRR 0.23 [0.17, 0.30]). A similar intervention effect was observed at 60–80% wMel prevalence as at 80–100% prevalence (76% vs 78% efficacy, respectively). Pre-intervention, insecticide fogging occurred at similar frequencies in areas later randomised to wMel-treated and untreated arms of the trial. After wMel deployment, fogging occurred significantly less frequently in treated areas (IRR 0.17 [0.10, 0.30]). Conclusions Deployments of wMel-infected Aedes aegypti mosquitoes resulted in an 83% reduction in the application of perifocal insecticide spraying, consistent with lower dengue case notifications in wMel-treated areas. These results show that the Wolbachia intervention effect demonstrated previously in a cluster randomised trial was also measurable from routine surveillance data.

Late presentation of HIV infection among adults in New Zealand from 2011 to 2020.

Early diagnosis of HIV is essential for successful treatment and controlling HIV spread in a population. We examined the frequency and characteristics of adults diagnosed late with HIV in New Zealand from 2011-2020. Routine surveillance data were analysed. Those previously diagnosed overseas or as part of immigration screening, or with missing CD4 count were excluded. 'Late presentation' was defined as a CD4 count <350 cells/μL or an AIDS-defining event. 'Advanced HIV disease' were those with a CD4 count <200 cells/μL or an AIDS-defining event. Relative risks were calculated using Poisson regression. Of 1145 people, 40.5% presented late; 24.9% had advanced HIV disease. Of the 464 late diagnoses, 65.5% occurred among men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM), 26.1% among heterosexuals, 8.4% among others. Heterosexual men and women were more likely to present late (55.3%) compared to MSM (35.6%). Amongst MSM, those who were older, of an ethnicity other than European, acquired HIV overseas, tested because symptomatic, or had their last negative test >2years prior were more likely to present late and have advanced disease. Amongst heterosexuals, older age, tested because symptomatic, and Pacific ethnicity were associated with late presentation, and Māori, Pacific and Asian people were more likely to have advanced disease. There continues to be a high proportion of people diagnosed late with HIV. Identifying barriers for testing, missed opportunities for screenings and other factors that delay HIV diagnosis could help develop effective strategies to reduce this burden of late presentation - particularly among heterosexual individuals, non-Europeans, and older people.