Roughness Coefficient Research Articles

Verifying an improved intermittent water distribution network analysis method based on EPA-SWMM

ABSTRACT Modelling Intermittent Water Supply (IWS) presents challenges, as traditional hydraulic methods based on EPANET are often inadequate due to their inability to simulate the network filling process. While EPA-SWMM (EPA's Storm Water Management Model)-based methods enhance IWS analysis, they remain network-specific and lack universal applicability. This study aims to calibrate and verify an improved EPA-SWMM-based model on a 6 m × 5 m laboratory-scale IWS. Experiments were conducted to capture flow rate data from demand nodes under various conditions. The EPA-SWMM model, based on uncontrolled outlets with flow rate varying by pressure, was calibrated using, an automated procedure that integrated the Genetic Algorithm (GA) into the SWMM-toolkit for optimizing minor loss and pipe roughness coefficients. Comparing model results with experimental data demonstrated the model's capability to simulate the laboratory-scale IWS system behaviour. The model was also applied to a real case study, with results closely aligning with field data, affirming its reliability. The proposed IWS modelling method offers a versatile tool for applications, such as design and scenario analysis for tackling IWS challenges and managing IWS systems. Future research should focus on a large-scale laboratory experiment with pressure and flow sensors, considering air presence in the network to mitigate errors.

Anisotropy of surface morphology of carbonate rocks after reaction with acid

In acid fracturing, acid is injected into artificial fracture to dissolve the rock, and the rock surface is shaped into the non-uniform morphology. This non-uniform morphology is the main cause of fracture conductivity after acid etching. The effects of acid type, flow rate, contact time and rock type on the non-uniform morphology of acid-etched rock surface have been studied. However, when the direction of acid flow is determined, the difference of dissolution characteristics in different directions of rock surface is not investigated. In this paper, acid rock reaction experiment and analysis of rock surface morphology after acid etching are carried out by using rock samples with flat surface. The difference of morphological characteristic parameters of rock surface in different directions under the condition of acid flow is discussed. It was found that the mean drop height, drop height range and roughness coefficient increase with the increase of acid rock reaction rate on flat rock surface. The morphological characteristic parameters of acid-etched rock face of limestone are greater than those of dolomite, which is conducive to forming acid-etched channels. According to the statistics of all experimental data, the larger average drop height of rock surface is distributed in the direction of parallel acid flow, the larger drop height range is distributed in the direction of vertical acid flow and other directions, and the larger roughness coefficient is distributed in other directions.

Seepage-heat accumulation characteristics and hydrothermal transport calculation model in mining-induced fractured rock mass: Implications for geothermal water control

The aim of this paper is to explore hydrothermal transport in surrounding rocks during deep mining, focusing on the mechanisms and key factors influencing groundwater seepage and heat accumulation disasters. Stress–seepage coupling tests were conducted on fractured rock mass with varying roughness under constant-pressure loading/unloading conditions. Also, a permeability model considering joint roughness coefficient and confining pressure was established. The study further examined the evolution of heat transfer in rough fractured rock mass and variations in convective heat transfer characteristics. The heat transfer process was observed to progress through stages of surge, attenuation, and stabilization. Two calculation models were developed using multivariate linear regression and random forest regression to quantify how different factors influenced water–rock convective heat transfer in mining-induced fractured rock mass. The average correlation coefficient R2 of the proposed models exceeded 0.95. The importance scores of osmotic pressure, inlet water temperature, rock temperature, and permeability were 0.417, 0.296, 0.223, and 0.065, respectively. The flow rate and water–rock temperature difference were determined to be the key factors influencing hydrothermal transport. This study enhanced the understanding of the hydrothermal migration mechanisms in surrounding rocks during mining and provided insights into geothermal water control.

Modeling flow resistance and geometry of dunes bed form in alluvial channels using hybrid RANN–AHA and GEP models

Dunes formation in sandy rivers significantly impacts flow resistance, subsequently affecting water levels, flow velocity, river navigation, and hydraulic structures performance. Accurate prediction of flow resistance and dune geometry (length and height) is essential for environmental engineering and river management. The current paper introduces two models to evaluate the flow resistance and geometry of dunes formed in sand-bed channels. The first model, RANN–AHA is a hybrid artificial intelligence model using the recurrent artificial neural network (RANN) linked with the artificial hummingbird optimization algorithm (AHA) to optimize the biases and weights of the neural network model. The second model uses gene expression programming (GEP) as a nonlinear approach based on a genetic algorithm (GA) and genetic programming (GP) to explicitly determine dune characteristics. For both models, the input parameters include flow and sediment characteristics, while Manning's roughness coefficient (nM), and relative dune height, h/H or h/L, were used as output parameters where h is the dune height, H is the flow depth above the dune crest, and L is the dune length. Five different published flume data sets were compiled for the analysis. Sensitivity analysis was done using different combinations of input parameters. It was found that the combination of hydraulic radius divided by median diameter (RH/d50), Reynolds number (Re), Particle densimetric Froude number (F∗), and grain Froude number (FG) yielded the best prediction accuracy for estimating Manning nM and relative height, h/H or h/L, with a root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.00027, 0.0504, and 0.0078 and a correlation coefficient (R) = 0.9989, 0.942, and 0.9272, respectively. Model verification proved that the RANN–AHA model outperformed the GEP model and most of the previous studies available in the literature when predicting the roughness coefficient and dune geometry in sand bed channels.

Determining the Coefficients of Philip's Equation and the Optimal Roughness Coefficient Using the Simulation of the Advancing Phase in Border Irrigation with the Dynamic Wave Model

Determining the Coefficients of Philip's Equation and the Optimal Roughness Coefficient Using the Simulation of the Advancing Phase in Border Irrigation with the Dynamic Wave Model

Geomorphic assessment of sediment storage potential and mobilisation on the hillslopes of a mountain catchment: An example from Pranmati catchment, NW Himalaya

Sediment budgeting within a landscape is useful in understanding landscape evolution, and hazard prediction and assessment. It has been observed that only a fraction of the total volume of sediment produced within the system gets exported, implying that a part of the total volume of sediment is stored within the system. This sediment mass gets arrested and stored in compartments within the system and is mobilised during extreme stochastic events. These sediment storage compartments are poorly connected with the channel network and hence, do not supply sediment at steady rates. We have evaluated sediment connectivity and conducted field validation within a 93 km2 mountainous river basin (Pranmati catchment) in the NW Himalayas. This assessment relies on the Index of Connectivity (IC), computed through two methods: one employing the original framework and the C-factor from RUSLE, and the other utilizing a multiple flowpath model that incorporates Manning's roughness coefficient. We developed a storage potential index (SPI) by modifying the basic framework of index of connectivity; SPI indicates the potential of a point on the hillslope to arrest sediment flux and store it. Based on the difference of normalised IC and SPI, we have developed a sediment evacuation susceptibility index (ESIS) that indicates the susceptibility of various parts of the hillslope to get evacuated. Using ESIS, a sediment evacuation susceptibility zonation map was prepared that delineates areas on the basis of their stability.Our study indicates that sediment flux gets arrested at the (1) junction of land use and land cover units that have contrasting sediment transporting capacity, (2) grassland/barren land pockets surrounded by forests, (3) croplands, and (4) landslide debris deposits. The parts of the hillslope in the vicinity of the channel network and areas around steep surfaces are highly susceptible to sediment evacuation. Gentle sloped surfaces away from the channel network are relatively stable. Landslide debris are highly stable units of sediment storage.

Identifying manning roughness coefficient using automatic calibration method and simulation of pollution incidents in the Nile River, Egypt

Study regionA reach of the Nile River located between Naga Hammadi barrage and Asyut barrage, Egypt Study focusAn accurate representation of hydrodynamics of an important water source helps cope with expected future climate changes, pollution incidents and water quality problems. Here, a comparison between HEC-RAS 1D and TELEMAC-2D model was conducted by identifying different Manning coefficients. Moreover, an automatic calibration using Dual-Annealing optimization method was applied for first time to calibrate the model with non-uniform Manning coefficients. The transport of tracer (pollution) was simulated by computing tracer residence times. Pollution transport scenarios were discussed to draw a picture of pollution incidents which will continue to happen in the future. An equation indicating the relation between flow discharge and residence time was derived to hurriedly help decision makers in water management during sudden pollution incidents. New hydrological insights for the regionA model with spatially variable Manning coefficients using TELEMAC-2D was set up and calibrated achieving good accuracyies with average errors of approximately 4 cm and 7 cm between field and simulated water levels for two different discharge scenarios. Moreover, an equation for relation between flow discharge and residence time was derived producing a strong correlation coefficient of 0.95. This study, integrating advanced hydrodynamic models and automatic calibration techniques, provides a robust framework for assessing and managing water resource challenges under varying flow conditions.

Investigate on the mechanical properties and microscopic three-dimensional morphology of rock failure surfaces under different stress states

The macro and micro morphology of rock failure surfaces play crucial roles in determining the rock mechanical and seepage properties. The morphology of unloaded deep rock failure surfaces exhibits significant variability and complexity. Surface roughness is closely linked to both shear strength and crack seepage behavior. Understanding these morphology parameters is vital for comprehending the mechanical behavior and seepage characteristics of rock masses. In this study, three-dimensional optical scanning technology was employed to analyze the micromorphological properties of limestone and sandstone failure surfaces under varying stress conditions. Line and surface roughness characteristics of different rock failure surfaces were then determined. Our findings reveal a critical confining pressure value (12 MPa) that influences the damage features of Ordovician limestone failure surfaces. With increasing confining pressure, pore depth and crack formation connecting the pores also increase. Beyond the critical confining pressure, the mesoscopic roughness of the failure surface decreases, and the range of interval-distributed pore roughness diminishes. Additionally, we conducted a detailed investigation into the water conductivity properties of rocks under different stress states using Barton's joint roughness coefficient (JRC) index and rock fractal theory. The roughness features of rock failure surfaces were classified into three categories based on mesoscopic pore and crack undulation forms: straight, wavy, and jagged. We also observed significant confining pressure effects on limestone and sandstone, which exceeding the critical confining pressure led to increased water conductivity in both rocks, albeit through different mechanisms. While sandstone exhibits fissures running across it, limestone shows shear abrasion holes. Beyond the critical confining pressure, the rock failure surface becomes smoother, leading to decreased water flow blocking capacity. The fractal dimension of Ordovician limestone increases significantly under critical confining pressure, leading to a more complex mesoscopic crack extension route.

Optimization of Manning's roughness coefficient using 1-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling in the perennial river system: A case of lower Narmada Basin, India.

This research bears significant implications for river management, flood forecasting, and ecosystem preservation in the Lower Narmada Basin. A more precise estimation of Manning's Roughness Coefficeint (n) will enhance the accuracy of hydraulic models and facilitate informed decision-making regarding flood risk management, water resource allocation, and environmental conservation efforts. Ultimately, this study aspires to contribute to the sustainable management of perennial river systems in India and beyond by offering a robust methodology for optimizing Manning's n tailored to the complex hydrological dynamics of the Lower Narmada Basin. Through a synthesis of empirical evidence and computational modelling, it seeks to empower stakeholders with actionable insights toward preserving and enhancing these invaluable natural resources. Using the new HEC-RAS v 6.0, a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model was developed to predict overbank discharge at different points along the basin. The study analyzes water levels, stream discharges, and river stage, optimizing Manning's n and required flood risk management. The model predicted a strong output agreement with R2, NSE, and RMSE for the 2020 eventas 0.83, 0.81, and 0.36, respectively, with an optimum Manning's n of 0.03. The lower Narmada Basin part near the coastal zone (validation point) appears inundated frequently. The paper aims to provide insights into optimizing Manning's coefficient, which can ultimately lead to better water flow predictions and more efficient water management in the region.

Mechanical responses and fracturing behaviors of coal under complex normal and shear stresses, Part I: Experimental results

This work presents experimental tests based on coal collected from a coal mine based underground water reservoir (CMUWR). The mechanical responses of dry and water-soaked coal samples under the complex normal and shear stresses under multi-amplitude and variable frequency is investigated. The experimental results reveal the effects of stress path, water soaking and frequency on deformation, energy dissipation, secant modulus and shear failure surface roughness. The experimental results show that when normal and shear stresses are applied simultaneously, there is a significant competitive relationship between them. On the dominant side, the strain rate will be significantly increased. The sample under a loading frequency of 0.2 Hz exhibits a longer fatigue life. During the cyclic shear test, the shear strain of the water-soaked sample is higher than that of the dry samples. The average roughness coefficient of failure surface exhibits an increasing pattern with increase in shear strength, the elevated roughness of a shear surface is advantageous in constraining shear displacements of specimens, thereby lowering the energy dissipation. This study can provide theoretical and practical implications for a long-term safety evaluation of CMUWR.

The Laser Scanner Technique: A Tool for Determining Shear Strength Parameters of Rock Mass Discontinuities

When evaluating the shear strength of rock mass discontinuities, certain challenges arise due to the difficulty in quantifying the roughness characteristics of surfaces and the strength of asperities. Recent research has focused on enhancing techniques for assessing these characteristics and exploring the application of laser scanning to aid in evaluating discontinuity features. The analysis of reflectivity values (I) obtained through a laser scanner survey presents an efficient method for assessing mechanical characteristics, such as joint compressive strength (JCS). Reflectivity measurements demonstrate correlations with Schmidt hammer rebound values (r). The laser scanner technique would enable the measurement of JCS without the direct application of the Schmidt hammer on rocks in areas where rebound values (r) measurements are unavailable. The use of a laser scanner allows for the acquisition of high-precision geometrical information concerning the 3D roughness and anisotropy of rock surfaces. In this study, an innovative technique was introduced that utilizes laser scanner data from six previous experimental surveys conducted on rock formations in Southern Italy. This technique facilitates the evaluation of roughness profiles, considering potential variations along kinematically admissible sliding directions, allowing for the estimation of the Joint Roughness Coefficient (JRC). This new methodology aids in evaluating the parameters of Barton’s equation to determine the strength characteristics of rock mass discontinuities.

Spatiotemporal Variability of Channel Roughness and its Substantial Impacts on Flood Modeling Errors

AbstractManning's roughness coefficient, n, is used to describe channel roughness, and is a widely sought‐after key parameter for estimating and predicting flood propagation. Due to its control of flow velocity and shear stress, n is critical for modeling timing of floods and pollutants, aquatic ecosystem health, infrastructural safety, and so on. While alternative formulations exist, open‐channel n is typically regarded as temporally constant, determined from lookup tables or calibration, and its spatiotemporal variability was never examined holistically at large scales. Here, we developed and analyzed a continental‐scale n dataset (along with alternative formulations) calculated from observed velocity, slope, and hydraulic radius in 200,000 surveys conducted over 5,000 U.S. sites. These large, diverse observations allowed training of a Random Forest (RF) model capable of predicting n (or alternative parameters) at high accuracy (Nash Sutcliffe model efficiency >0.7) in space and time. We show that predictable time variability explains a large fraction (∼35%) of n variance compared to spatial variability (50%). While exceptions abound, n is generally lower and more stable under higher streamflow conditions. Other factorial influences on n including land cover, sinuosity, and particle sizes largely agree with conventional intuition. Accounting for temporal variability in n could lead to substantially larger (45% at the median site) estimated flow velocities under high‐flow conditions or lower (44%) velocities under low‐flow conditions. Habitual exclusion of n temporal dynamics means flood peaks could arrive days before model‐predicted flood waves, and peak magnitude estimation might also be erroneous. We therefore offer a model of great practical utility.

Developing an intuitionistic fuzzy rough new correlation coefficient approach for enhancing robotic vacuum cleaner.

An intuitionistic fuzzy rough model is a powerful tool for dealing with complex uncertainty and imprecision in graph-based models, combining the strengths of intuitionistic fuzzy sets and rough sets. In this research, a correlation coefficient is an established tool for finding the strength of the relationship between two intuitionistic fuzzy rough graphs since correlation coefficients are very capable of processing and interpreting data. Furthermore, an intuitionistic fuzzy rough environment is integrated with attribute decision-making based on correlation coefficients. In order to measure the correlation between two intuitionistic fuzzy rough graphs, this suggests utilising the correlation coefficient concept and weighted correlation coefficient. In order to identify decision-making issues that are supported by intuitionistic fuzzy rough preference relations, the Laplacian energy and new correlation coefficient of intuitionistic fuzzy rough graphs are calculated in this study. We propose a new approach to computing the relative position loads of establishments by adjusting the correlation coefficient between one personality's intuitionistic fuzzy rough preference relation and the other items, as well as the undecided corroboration of the intuitionistic fuzzy rough preference relation. This paper determines the ranking order of all alternatives and the best one by using the correlation coefficient between each option and the ideal choice. In the meantime, the appropriate example improves decision-making for robotic vacuum cleaners by effectively handling uncertain and imprecise data, thereby optimising cleaning performance.

Micro-failure behaviors of mineral crystals in reservoir rocks impacted by abrasive water jet

Abrasive water jet (AWJ) has been widely used in the development of reservoir resources. In the relevant literature, the mechanism of perforation formation by AWJ impacting rocks in different reservoirs, the effect of rock genesis and mineral species during the material removal process, and the location of crack propagation remain unclear, and there is no comprehensive study that investigates the micro failure behaviors of mineral crystals in the rocks. As a result, in this study, we use AWJ to impact reservoir rocks (granite, sandstone, limestone, and shale), the rock damage and the macro morphology of perforations are characterized by Computed Tomography (CT); then the surface features of perforations are obtained by a 3D morphology scanner and the Joint Roughness Coefficient (JRC) is calculated; finally, the micro characteristics of perforations are analyzed by using a polarizing microscope and scanning electron microscope (SEM). The results show that for all four rock types, the perforation wall formed by AWJ presents relatively smooth (JRC: granite-8.2, sandstone-5.9, limestone-8.3 and shale-11.6) and rough (JRC: granite-13.1, sandstone-12.6, limestone-17.5 and shale-18.5) surfaces, with the location of cracks typically developing around the latter. Sedimentary reservoirs being more susceptible to generate cracks along particle cementation boundaries. Moreover, damage and cracks in shale are more likely to extend along the bedding planes. The results clarified the perforation formation mechanism and the crack development areas of AWJ impacting different reservoir rocks.

Influence of anodic treatment of a copper-nickel alloy in a eutectic mixture of choline chloride and urea on the surface morphology and electrocatalytic behavior in the hydrogen evolution reaction

For the first time, we investigated the process of potentiostatic anodic treatment of the surface of a copper (≈55%)-nickel alloy in a eutectic mixture of urea and choline chloride (reline), which is a typical representative of a new generation of ionic liquids, deep eutectic solvents. The anodic behavior of the alloy in the used solvent was characterized by cyclic voltammetry, and the nature of the electrochemical dissolution reactions of individual components of the alloy corresponding to several anodic current waves registered in voltammograms was determined. It was established that the anodic dissolution of the alloy occurs under conditions of salt surface passivation due to the formation of a layer of poorly soluble products of the electrode reaction. It was shown that under conditions of prolonged (150 min) potentiostatic polarization of the alloy in reline for various values of the electrode potential (in the range from 0.1 to 1.7 V relative to the Ag reference electrode), the chemical composition of the surface remained unchanged (i.e., there was no selective etching of individual components of the alloy), but an evolution of surface morphology patterns was observed, the specific type of which depended on the value of the applied potential. Anodic treatment of the Cu-Ni alloy in the reline solvent at any of the investigated anodic potentials led to an increase in the surface roughness coefficient, and electrochemical polishing did not occur. Analysis of kinetic data related to the hydrogen evolution reaction on the surfaces of reline-treated copper-nickel alloys in a 1 M NaOH aqueous solution showed a significant increase in exchange current density. This indicates enhancement of electrocatalytic activity compared to the untreated surface. The observed effect is likely associated with an increase in the true surface area of the alloy available for electrochemical reaction and an increase in the surface concentration of electrocatalytic sites resulting from the anodic dissolution of the alloy. The obtained results can be used in the development of highly efficient and relatively inexpensive electrocatalysts for hydrogen energy.

Telemac 2D Modeling of Pollutant Transport in the Medjerda River: Impact of Tamarix Vegetation, Bousselem, Tunisia

The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of pollutant discharges from Bousselem WWTP in the Medjerda River (Tunisia). We chose to model the transport of a passive pollutant from the Bousselem WWTP using Telemac 2D model. The hydrodynamic model calibration was based on identifying the roughness coefficient derived from existing vegetation, mainly from the Tamarix type. Three scenarios of hydrocarbon dispersion representing potential accidents, with concentrations of 0.25, 10, and 50 kg/m3, were simulated. Three successive downstream sections were chosen to track concentration variability in space and over time. The final concentrations recorded (6 km from discharge point) are 500 μg/l, 12 μg/l, and 2.4 μg/l for scenarios of 50 kg/m3, 1 kg/m3, and 0.25 kg/m3, respectively. These values significantly exceed the international norm for drinking water, set at 1 μg/l, and so causing problems for drinking use. The obtained results serve to ensure environmental safety for hydraulic resources.

A Multiscale Finite Element Method for an Elliptic Distributed Optimal Control Problem with Rough Coefficients and Control Constraints

A Multiscale Finite Element Method for an Elliptic Distributed Optimal Control Problem with Rough Coefficients and Control Constraints

A new integrated intelligent computing paradigm for predicting joints shear strength

Joints shear strength is a critical parameter during the design and construction of geotechnical engineering structures. The prevailing models mostly adopt the form of empirical functions, employing mathematical regression techniques to represent experimental data. As an alternative approach, this paper proposes a new integrated intelligent computing paradigm that aims to predict joints shear strength. Five metaheuristic optimization algorithms, including the chameleon swarm algorithm (CSA), slime mold algorithm, transient search optimization algorithm, equilibrium optimizer and social network search algorithm, were employed to enhance the performance of the multilayered perception (MLP) model. Efficiency comparisons were conducted between the proposed CSA-MLP model and twelve classical models, employing statistical indicators such as root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), and variance accounted for (VAF) to evaluate the performance of each model. The sensitivity analysis of parameters that impact joints shear strength was conducted. Finally, the feasibility and limitations of this study were discussed. The results revealed that, in comparison to other models, the CSA-MLP model exhibited the most appropriate performance in terms of R2 (0.88), RMSE (0.19), MAE (0.15), and VAF (90.32%) values. The result of sensitivity analysis showed that the normal stress and the joint roughness coefficient were the most critical factors influencing joints shear strength. This paper presented an efficacious attempt toward swift prediction of joints shear strength, thus avoiding the need for costly in-site and laboratory tests.

Stability assessment of jointed rock capturing roughness degradation under cyclic loading with special reference to railway formation

Repeated train loading on a jointed rock subgrade can cause excessive displacements of certain discontinuities leading to instability. Repeated shearing of discontinuities leads to a gradual reduction in joint roughness (i.e. wearing of asperities), which is quantified by the change in the joint roughness coefficient (JRC). This process reduces the joint shear strength over time. In this study, the classical shear strength criterion proposed by Barton and Choubey (1977) is extended to capture the influence of cyclic loading on joint degradation and the corresponding shear strength reduction, also considering the scale effect. This modified cyclic shear strength is implemented in FLAC-3D and validated with conventional cyclic triaxial data available from selected past studies. The model is applied to a simulated real-life track operating over a jointed sandstone formation commonly found towards the eastern coast of NSW. A modified limit equilibrium approach based on an Equivalent Factor of Safety (EFOS) is introduced and adopted to quantify the extent of instability, whereby an increase in the number of loading cycles affects a decrease in the EFOS of an unstable block. For a specific joint strike inclined to the track, the potential adversities are exacerbated when the joint dip angle is greater and when the initial JRC is smaller. In this paper, alternative geometrical combinations and different initial joint properties are considered to determine the worst combination of JRC and joint orientation upon cyclic train loading. As most past studies adhere to traditional static load analyses, the extended shear strength criterion described in this study is novel, and it offers significant practical benefit for railways that are subjected to prolonged cyclic loading.

Measurement of 3D joint surface morphology and estimation for shear mechanical behavior: A theoretical model and experimental investigation

The majority of rock engineering instabilities are primarily due to shear slips and failures on the joint surfaces, and the measurement of joint surface morphology is crucial for shear strength evaluation. In this study, the high-precision 3D laser scanner was first used to characterize and digitally reconstruct the surface morphology of various joints. The evaluation method of joint surface roughness was modified according to the 2D profile data and shear direction. Then, the effects of normal stress and initial joint roughness coefficient on the shear mechanical behavior were investigated by experimental method. The damage evolution characteristics and failure mechanism of the joint surface are analyzed by acoustic emission monitoring and image binarization calculations. The research results indicate that as the normal stress and initial joint roughness coefficient increase, the peak shear stress and shear displacement, residual strength, and cumulative AE counts of rock joints display an increasing trend. Based on the evolution of mechanical parameters, a new mechanical model of rock joints to predict shear strength and deformation was developed, which was validated by comparing the theoretical prediction curves with test results. A good concordance was achieved between the shear test and theoretical results, indicating that the developed model can effectively predict the shear strength and deformation of joint surfaces under different normal stress and roughness. This research results are expected to provide a valuable guidance for early warning and evaluation of geological disasters.