Ross Ice Shelf Research Articles

Assessing observation network design predictions for monitoring Antarctic surface temperature

AbstractNetworks of observations ideally provide adequate sampling of parameters to be monitored for climate and weather forecasting applications. This is a challenge for any network, but is particularly difficult in the harsh environment of the Antarctic continent. We evaluate a network design method providing objective information on station siting for optimal sampling of a variable, here taken to be surface air temperature. The method uses the concept of ensemble sensitivity to predict locations reducing the most total ensemble variance, that is, uncertainty, across the continent. The method is applied to a network of frequently‐reporting stations, and validation is performed using results from assimilating station observations. A cost‐efficient “offline” data assimilation framework is used to allow testing over a large sample of experiments, including a large number of randomly chosen networks that serve as a null hypothesis. Network design predictions agree well with observed error reductions from assimilation. The important role of stations on the East Antarctic Plateau in monitoring surface air temperature is evident in network design and data assimilation results, followed by stations in West Antarctica and the Ross Ice Shelf region. Antarctic coastal and Peninsula stations are found to provide the smallest information content integrated over the continent. Validation results are also robust to covariance localization, an essential factor for ensemble methods. Optimal networks outperform randomly chosen‐networks in all cases, by up to nearly 50%, depending on the size of the network and the covariance localization distance.

Relationships Between L-Band Brightness Temperature, Backscatter, and Physical Properties of the Ross Ice Shelf Antarctica

Radiometric and radar data from NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite are presented in a study of the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica. L-band brightness temperature ( <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">T</i> <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">B</sub> ) patterns compare favorably to the outflow patterns from East and West Antarctica. Cooler <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">T</i> <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">B</sub> is associated with the broad outflow from West Antarctic ice streams and the outflow from narrow outlet glaciers that drain East Antarctica. Aside from outlet glacier discharges, ice from East Antarctica is thinner and radiometrically warmer than that from West Antarctica. <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">T</i> <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">B</sub> is stable across the ice shelf over the 6-year period of observations (1-2 K standard deviation). Over shorter times, surface melt events cause pre- and post-melt <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">T</i> <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">B</sub> to vary by as much as 5 K in vertical polarization. Radar measurements highlight areas where backscatter is strong from melt related ice lenses and ice layers, consistent with a corresponding decrease in <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">T</i> <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">B</sub> . The <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">T</i> <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">B</sub> polarization ratio on the ice shelf is approximately 1.13 and decreases from the West Antarctic grounding line towards the East Antarctic outlet glaciers. The backscatter polarization ratio increases by several dB from West to East Antarctica, indicating a decreasing influence of volume scatter toward East Antarctica. The decreasing <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">T</i> <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">B</sub> polarization ratio indicates a diminishing role of firn layering on the depth-integrated emission. There is a negative correlation between warming brightness temperature and thinning. An explanation for this observation is that the relatively warm ice shelf has a relatively shallow (500 m or less) penetration depth leading to a warm physical temperature bias.

DEM Generation with ICESat-2 Altimetry Data for the Three Antarctic Ice Shelves: Ross, Filchner–Ronne and Amery

The ice shelf is an important component of the Antarctic system, and the interaction between the ice sheet and the ocean often proceeds through mass variations of the ice shelf. The digital elevation model (DEM) of the ice shelf is particularly important for ice shelf elevation change and mass balance estimation. With the development of satellite altimetry technology, it became an important data source for DEM research of Antarctica. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) launched in 2018 is a significant improvement in along-track sampling rate and measurement accuracy compared with previous altimetry satellites. This study uses ordinary kriging interpolation to present new DEMs (ICESat-2 DEM hereinafter) for the three ice shelves (Ross, Filchner–Ronne and Amery) in Antarctica with ICESat-2 altimetry data. Two variogram models (linear and spherical) of ordinary kriging interpolation are compared in this paper. The result shows that the spherical model generally shows better performance and lower standard deviation (STD) than the linear models. The precision of the ultimate DEM was evaluated by NASA Operation IceBridge (OIB) data and compared with five previously published Antarctic DEM products (REMA, TanDEM-X PolarDEM, Slater DEM, Helm DEM, and Bamber DEM). The comparison reveals that the mean difference between ICESat-2 DEM of the Ross ice shelf and OIB is −0.016 m with a STD of 0.918 m, and the mean difference between ICESat-2 DEM of the Filchner–Ronne ice shelf and OIB is −0.533 m with a STD of 0.718 m. The three ICESat-2 DEMs show higher spatial resolution and elevation accuracy than five previously published Antarctic DEMs.

Remote and autonomous measurements of precipitation for the northwestern Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica

Abstract. The Antarctic Precipitation System project deployed and maintained four sites across the northwestern Ross Ice Shelf in Antarctica from November 2017 to November 2019. The goals for the project included the collection of in situ observations of precipitation in Antarctica spanning a duration of 2 years, an improvement in the understanding of precipitation events across the Ross Ice Shelf, and the ability to validate precipitation data from atmospheric numerical models. At each of the four sites the precipitation was measured with an OTT Pluvio2 precipitation gauge. Additionally, snow accumulation at the site was measured with a sonic ranging sensor and using GPS interferometric reflectivity. Supplemental observations of temperature, wind speed, particle count, particle size and speed, and images and video from a camera were collected to provide context to the precipitation measurements. The collected dataset represents some of the first year-round observations of precipitation in Antarctica at remote locations using an autonomous measurement system. The acquired observations have been quality-controlled and post-processed, and they are available for retrieval through the United States Antarctic Program Data Center (https://doi.org/10.15784/601441, Seefeldt, 2021).

Spatial variability and regional trends of Antarctic ice shelf surface melt duration over 1979–2020 derived from passive microwave data

AbstractPassive microwave satellite observations are used to identify the presence of surface meltwater across Antarctica at daily intervals from July 1979 to June 2020, with a focus on ice shelves. Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves have the highest number of annual days of melt, with a maximum of 89 days. Over the entire time period, there are few significant linear trends in days of melt per year. High melt years can be split into two distinct categories, those with high melt days in Dronning Maud Land and Wilkes Land, and those with high melt days in the Antarctic Peninsula and the Bellingshausen Sea sector of West Antarctica. The first pattern coincides with significant negative correlations between melt days and spring and summer Southern Annular Mode. Both patterns also form the primary modes of spatial and annual variability in the dataset observed by Principal Component Analysis. Areas experiencing extended melt for the first time in years tend to show large decreases in subsequent winter microwave emissions due to structural changes in the firn. We use this to identify the impact of novel melt events, particularly over the austral summers of 1991/92 and 2015/16 on the Ross Ice Shelf.

Ross Sea Dissolved Organic Matter Optical Properties During an Austral Summer: Biophysical Influences

The Ross Sea, one of the most productive regions in the Southern Ocean, plays a significant role in deep water formation and carbon cycling. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations and chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) absorption and fluorescence (FDOM) properties were studied in conjunction with biophysical properties during austral summer. Elevated values of both DOC (mean 47.82 ± 5.70 μM) and CDOM (absorption coefficient at 325 nm, acdom325: mean 0.31 ± 0.18 m–1) observed in the upper shelf waters in the southwest (SW), north of the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS), the northwest and along a transect inward of the shelf break, suggested in situ production and accumulation linked to the productive spring/summer season. However, regional differences were observed in CDOM with acdom325 higher (0.63 ± 0.19 m–1) and its spectral slope S275–295 lower (24.06 ± 2.93 μm–1) in the SW compared to other regions (0.25 ± 0.08 m–1 and 28.92 ± 2.67 μm–1, respectively). Similarly, the specific UV absorption coefficient or SUVA254 determined at 254 nm was greater (1.85 ± 0.55 m2 mg–1 C) compared to other regions (1.07 ± 0.24 m2 mg–1 C), indicating CDOM of greater molecular weight and aromaticity in the SW. Phytoplankton absorption spectra indicated the shallow mixed layer of SW Ross Sea to be dominated by diatoms (e.g., Fragilariopsis spp.), a preferential food source for grazers such as the Antarctic krill, which in large numbers have been shown to enhance CDOM absorption, a likely source in the SW. Excitation-emission matrix (EEM) fluorescence combined with parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) retrieved one protein-like and two humic-like FDOM fractions commonly observed in the global ocean. In contrast to acdom325 which was uncorrelated to DOC, we observed weak but significant positive correlations between the humic-like FDOM with salinity and DOC, high value of the biological index parameter BIX and an instance of increasing FDOM with depth at a location with sinking organic matter, suggesting autochthonous production of FDOM. The absorption budget showed a relatively higher contribution by CDOM (70.7 ± 18.3%) compared to phytoplankton (22.5 ± 15.2%) absorption coefficients at 443 nm with implications to ocean color remote sensing. This first study of DOM optical properties provides additional insights on carbon cycling in the Ross Sea.

A 15-year circum-Antarctic iceberg calving dataset derived from continuous satellite observations

Abstract. Iceberg calving is the main process that facilitates the dynamic mass loss of ice sheets into the ocean, which accounts for approximately half of the mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet. Fine-scale calving variability observations can help reveal the calving mechanisms and identify the principal processes that influence how the changing climate affects global sea level through the ice shelf buttressing effect on the Antarctic ice sheet. Iceberg calving from entire ice shelves for short time intervals or from specific ice shelves for long time intervals has been monitored before, but there is still a lack of consistent, long-term, and high-precision records on independent calving events for all of the Antarctic ice shelves. In this study, a 15-year annual iceberg calving product measuring every independent calving event larger than 1 km2 over all of the Antarctic ice shelves that occurred from August 2005 to August 2020 was developed based on 16 years of continuous satellite observations. First, the expansion of the ice shelf frontal coastline was simulated according to ice velocity; following this, the calved areas, which are considered to be the differences between the simulated coastline, were manually delineated, and the actual coastline was derived from the corresponding satellite imagery, based on multisource optical and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. The product provides detailed information on each calving event, including the associated year of occurrence, area, size, average thickness, mass, recurrence interval, and measurement uncertainties. A total of 1975 annual calving events larger than 1 km2 were detected on the Antarctic ice shelves from August 2005 to August 2020. The average annual calved area was measured as 3549.1 km2 with an uncertainty value of 14.3 km2, and the average calving rate was measured as 770.3 Gt yr−1 with an uncertainty value of 29.5 Gt yr−1. The number of calving events, calved area, and calved mass fluctuated moderately during the first decade, followed by a dramatic increase from 2015/2016 to 2019/2020. During the dataset period, large ice shelves, such as the Ronne–Filchner and Ross ice shelves, advanced with low calving frequency, whereas small- and medium-sized ice shelves retreated and calved more frequently. Iceberg calving of ice shelves is most prevalent in West Antarctica, followed by the Antarctic Peninsula and Wilkes Land in East Antarctica. The annual iceberg calving event dataset of Antarctic ice shelves provides consistent and precise calving observations with the longest time coverage. The dataset provides multidimensional variables for each independent calving event that can be used to study detailed spatial–temporal variations in Antarctic iceberg calving. The dataset can also be used to study ice sheet mass balance, calving mechanisms, and responses of iceberg calving to climate change. The dataset, entitled “Annual iceberg calving dataset of the Antarctic ice shelves (2005–2020)”, is shared via the National Tibetan Plateau Data Center: https://doi.org/10.11888/Glacio.tpdc.271250 (Qi et al., 2021). In addition, the average annual calving rate of 18.4±6.7 Gt yr−1 for calving events smaller than 1 km2 of the Antarctic ice shelves and the calving rate of 166.7±15.2 Gt yr−1 for the marine-terminating glaciers were estimated.

Enhanced moisture delivery into Victoria Land, East Antarctica, during the early Last Interglacial: implications for West Antarctic Ice Sheet stability

Abstract. The S27 ice core, drilled in the Allan Hills Blue Ice Area of East Antarctica, is located in southern Victoria Land, ∼80 km away from the present-day northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf. Here, we utilize the reconstructed accumulation rate of S27 covering the Last Interglacial (LIG) period between 129 ka and 116 ka (where ka indicates thousands of years before present) to infer moisture transport into the region. The accumulation rate is based on the ice-age–gas-age differences calculated from the ice chronology, which is constrained by the stable water isotopes of the ice, and an improved gas chronology based on measurements of oxygen isotopes of O2 in the trapped gases. The peak accumulation rate in S27 occurred at 128.2 ka, near the peak LIG warming in Antarctica. Even the most conservative estimate yields an order-of-magnitude increase in the accumulation rate during the LIG maximum, whereas other Antarctic ice cores are typically characterized by a glacial–interglacial difference of a factor of 2 to 3. While part of the increase in S27 accumulation rates must originate from changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation, additional mechanisms are needed to explain the large changes. We hypothesize that the exceptionally high snow accumulation recorded in S27 reflects open-ocean conditions in the Ross Sea, created by reduced sea ice extent and increased polynya size and perhaps by a southward retreat of the Ross Ice Shelf relative to its present-day position near the onset of the LIG. The proposed ice shelf retreat would also be compatible with a sea-level high stand around 129 ka significantly sourced from West Antarctica. The peak in S27 accumulation rates is transient, suggesting that if the Ross Ice Shelf had indeed retreated during the early LIG, it would have re-advanced by 125 ka.

Unsupervised Deep Clustering of Seismic Data: Monitoring the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica

AbstractAdvances in machine learning (ML) techniques and computational capacity have yielded state‐of‐the‐art methodologies for processing, sorting, and analyzing large seismic data sets. In this study, we consider an application of ML for automatically identifying dominant types of impulsive seismicity contained in observations from a 34‐station broadband seismic array deployed on the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS), Antarctica from 2014 to 2017. The RIS seismic data contain signals and noise generated by many glaciological processes that are useful for monitoring the integrity and dynamics of ice shelves. Deep clustering was employed to efficiently investigate these signals. Deep clustering automatically groups signals into hypothetical classes without the need for manual labeling, allowing for the comparison of their signal characteristics and spatial and temporal distribution with potential source mechanisms. The method uses spectrograms as input and encodes their salient features into a lower‐dimensional latent representation using an autoencoder, a type of deep neural network. For comparison, two clustering methods are applied to the latent data: a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and deep embedded clustering (DEC). Eight classes of dominant seismic signals were identified and compared with environmental data such as temperature, wind speed, tides, and sea ice concentration. The greatest seismicity levels occurred at the RIS front during the 2016 El Niño summer, and near grounding zones near the front throughout the deployment. We demonstrate the spatial and temporal association of certain classes of seismicity with seasonal changes at the RIS front, and with tidally driven seismicity at Roosevelt Island.

Dynamic linkage between the interannual variability of the spring Ross Ice Shelf Polynya and the atmospheric circulation anomalies

Dynamic linkage between the interannual variability of the spring Ross Ice Shelf Polynya and the atmospheric circulation anomalies

Basal Crevasse Formation on Byrd Glacier, East Antarctica, as Proxy for Past Subglacial Flooding Events

AbstractLinear elastic fracture mechanics suggests that short‐lived flow accelerations, such as the one initiated by a flooding event beneath Byrd Glacier in 2006, can form abnormally large basal crevasses at the grounding line. Airborne radar measurements acquired in 2011 reveal hundreds of basal crevasses ranging in height from 40–335 m. Particle tracking results show that formation of the largest basal crevasse occurred at the grounding line during the 2006 flooding event. Very large basal crevasses form distinctive surface depressions directly overhead, which are observed along the Byrd Glacier flowline to the terminus of the Ross Ice Shelf. By using these surface depressions as proxies for abnormally large basal crevasses, we create a timeline of past subglacial flooding events on Byrd Glacier. Understanding the frequency of flooding events and their effect on glacier dynamics will help inform models of ice sheet stability and subglacial hydrology.

Energetics of surface melt in West Antarctica

Abstract. We use reanalysis data and satellite remote sensing of cloud properties to examine how meteorological conditions alter the surface energy balance to cause surface melt that is detectable in satellite passive microwave imagery over West Antarctica. This analysis can detect each of the three primary mechanisms for inducing surface melt at a specific location: thermal blanketing involving sensible heat flux and/or longwave heating by optically thick cloud cover, all-wave radiative enhancement by optically thin cloud cover, and föhn winds. We examine case studies over Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, which are of interest for ice shelf and ice sheet stability, and over Siple Dome, which is more readily accessible for field work. During January 2015 over Siple Dome we identified a melt event whose origin is an all-wave radiative enhancement by optically thin clouds. During December 2011 over Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, we identified a melt event caused mainly by thermal blanketing from optically thick clouds. Over Siple Dome, those same 2011 synoptic conditions yielded a thermal-blanketing-driven melt event that was initiated by an impulse of sensible heat flux and then prolonged by cloud longwave heating. The December 2011 synoptic conditions also generated föhn winds at a location on the Ross Ice Shelf adjacent to the Transantarctic Mountains, and we analyze this case with additional support from automatic weather station data. In contrast, a late-summer thermal blanketing period over Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers during February 2013 showed surface melt initiated by cloud longwave heating and then prolonged by enhanced sensible heat flux. One limitation thus far with this type of analysis involves uncertainties in the cloud optical properties. Nevertheless, with improvements this type of analysis can enable quantitative prediction of atmospheric stress on the vulnerable Antarctic ice shelves in a steadily warming climate.

Resolving the argument about volcanic bedrock under the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and implications for ice sheet stability and sea level change

We provide a test for recent arguments that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is underlain by an extensive outcrop of volcanic rock (mainly basalt) by examining the non-clay and clay mineral composition of sediments collected in front of and under the Ross Ice Shelf. If the proposed large volume were present, then we posit that glacial erosion and transport would deliver sediments to the Ross Sea enriched in minerals diagnostic of alkaline basalt, namely olivine, pyroxene, and plagioclase, and no quartz. Using quantitative X-ray diffraction analysis, we determine the weight percent of minerals in West Antarctic alkaline basalt, dolerite, gneiss, and granite bedrock, and compare these with a suite of 49 surface and near-surface sediment samples from a 1400 km west to east transect across the Ross Sea. Fifty percent of the samples had quartz percentage values >25% and had very small wt percentages of diagnostic basalt minerals. A sediment unmixing algorithm, with basalt, dolerite, gneiss and granite bedrock, end members, showed that the sediment contained virtually no basalt, was dominated by granite compositions, but did show some samples with an admixture of material derived from the Ferrar dolerite, which crops out extensively in the Transantarctic Mountains. Indicators of possible late Cenozoic volcanic bedrock – pyroxene, forsterite, and smectite weight percentages – decrease from west to east across the Ross Sea opposite to the trend of the quartz weight percent. Our study provides no support for the presence of extensive basalt outcrop under the WAIS, hence indicates that any changes in ice stream stability will not be influenced by basal heat regime.

Mechanics and dynamics of pinning points on the Shirase Coast, West Antarctica

Abstract. Ice rises and rumples, sites of localised ice-shelf grounding, modify ice-shelf flow by generating lateral and basal shear stresses, upstream compression, and downstream tension. Studies of pinning points typically quantify this role indirectly, through related metrics such as a buttressing number. Here, we quantify the dynamic effects of pinning points directly, by comparing model-simulated stress states in the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) with and without a specific set of pinning points located downstream of the MacAyeal and Bindschadler ice streams (MacIS and BIS, respectively). Because ice properties are only known indirectly, the experiment is repeated with different realisations of the ice softness. While longitudinal stretching, and thus ice velocity, is smaller with the pinning points, flow resistance generated by other grounded features is also smaller. Conversely, flow resistance generated by other grounded features increases when the pinning points are absent, providing a non-local control on the net effect of the pinning points on ice-shelf flow. We find that an ice stream located directly upstream of the pinning points, MacIS, is less responsive to their removal than the obliquely oriented BIS. This response is due to zones of locally higher basal drag acting on MacIS, which may itself be a consequence of the coupled ice-shelf and ice-stream response to the pinning points. We also find that inversion of present-day flow and thickness for basal friction and ice softness, without feature-specific, a posteriori adjustment, leads to the incorrect representation of ice rumple morphology and an incorrect boundary condition at the ice base. Viewed from the perspective of change detection, we find that, following pinning point removal, the ice shelf undergoes an adjustment to a new steady state that involves an initial increase in ice speeds across the eastern ice shelf, followed by decaying flow speeds, as mass flux reduces thickness gradients in some areas and increases thickness gradients in others. Increases in ice-stream flow speeds persist with no further adjustment, even without sustained grounding-line retreat. Where pinning point effects are important, model tuning that respects their morphology is necessary to represent the system as a whole and inform interpretations of observed change.

Buoyancy‐Driven Flexure at the Front of Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Observed With ICESat‐2 Laser Altimetry

AbstractMass loss from Antarctica’s three largest ice shelves is dominated by calving, primarily of large tabular icebergs every few decades. Smaller, more frequent calving events also occur, but it is more difficult to detect them and quantify their contribution to total ice‐shelf mass loss. We used surface elevation data from NASA’s ICESat‐2 laser altimeter to examine the structure of the Ross Ice Shelf front between October 2018 and July 2020. Profiles frequently show a depression a few meters deep about 200–800 m upstream of the front, with higher values on the eastern portion of the ice shelf. This structure results from bending due to buoyancy of a submerged ice bench generated by ice‐front melting near the waterline when warm water is present in summer. These bending stresses may cause small‐scale calving events whose frequency would change as summer sea ice and atmosphere–ocean heat exchanges vary over time.

Major surface melting over the Ross Ice Shelf part II: Surface energy balance

AbstractThe West Antarctic climate is under the combined impact of synoptic and regional drivers. Regional factors have contributed to more frequent surface melting with a similar pattern recently, which accelerates ice loss and favors global sea‐level rise. Part I of this research identified and quantified the two leading drivers of Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) melting, viz. foehn effect and direct marine air advection, based on Polar WRF (PWRF) simulations. In this article (Part II), the impact of clouds and the pattern of surface energy balance (SEB) during melting are analyzed, as well as the relationship among these three factors. In general, net shortwave radiation dominates the surface melting with a daily mean value above 100 W·m−2. Foehn clearance and decreasing surface albedo respectively increase the downward shortwave radiation and increase the absorbed shortwave radiation, significantly contributing to surface melting in areas such as western Marie Byrd Land. Also, extensive downward longwave radiation caused by low‐level liquid cloud favors the melting expansion over the middle and coastal RIS. With significant moisture transport occurring over more than 40% of the time during the melting period, the impact from net radiation can be amplified. Moreover, frequent foehn cases can enhance the turbulent mixing on the leeside. With a Froude number (Fr) around 1 or slightly larger, fast downdrafts or reversed wind flows can let the warm foehn air penetrate down to the surface with up to 20 W·m−2 in sensible heat flux transfer to the ground. However, when the Froude number is close to infinity with breaking waves on the leeside, the contribution of turbulence to the surface warming is reduced. With better understanding of the regional factors for the surface melting, prediction of the future stability of West Antarctic ice shelves can be improved.

Major surface melting over the Ross Ice Shelf part I: Foehn effect

AbstractWest Antarctica (WA), especially the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS), has experienced more frequent surface melting during the austral summer recently. The future is likely to see enhanced surface melting that will jeopardize the stability of ice shelves and cause ice loss. We investigate four major melt cases over the RIS via Polar Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations (4 km resolution) driven by European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) reanalysis data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observed albedo. Direct warm air advection, recurring foehn effect, and cloud/upper warm air introduced radiative warming are the three major regional causes of surface melting over WA. In this paper, Part I, the first two factors are identified and quantified. The second paper, Part II, discusses the impact of clouds and summarizes all three factors from a surface energy balance perspective. With a high‐pressure ridge located westward towards the Sulzberger Ice Shelf (77° S, 148° W) and a low‐pressure center located between 165° and 180° W, warm marine air from the Ross Sea is advected towards the coastal RIS and leads to surface melting. When the high‐pressure ridge is located farther east towards Marie Byrd Land (120–150° W), the foehn effect can cause a 2–4°C increase in surface temperature on the leeside of the mountains. For three of four melt cases, more than 40% of the melting period experiences foehn warming. Isentropic drawdown is usually the dominant foehn mechanism and contributes up to a 14°C temperature increase, especially when strong low‐level blocking occurs on the upwind side. The thermodynamic mechanism can be important depending on the strength of moisture uptake and condensation on the windward side. Meanwhile, sensible heat flux contributes less to foehn warming, but still plays an important role in the melting. The prediction of future stability of the RIS should include foehn warming as a major driver.

Projected Seismic Activity at the Tiger Stripe Fractures on Enceladus, Saturn, From an Analog Study of Tidally Modulated Icequakes Within the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica

AbstractDissipation of tidal energy is expected to generate seismicity on icy‐ocean worlds; however, the distribution and timing of this seismic activity throughout an orbital cycle is not known. We used new observations from an icy‐ocean‐world analog environment on Earth to examine the relationship between tidally driven tensile stress and seismic activity within an ice shell. We investigated a pair of rifts within Antarctica's Ross Ice Shelf which are tidally stressed in a manner analogous to the orbital cycle of tidal stress experienced by Enceladus' Tiger Stripe Fractures. We found that seismic activity at the Antarctic rifts is sensitive to both the amplitude and the rate of tensile stress across the rifts. We combined these findings with calculated stress values along Enceladus' Tiger Stripe Fractures to predict seismic‐activity levels expected along the ice‐shell fractures. We predict a peak in seismicity along the four Tiger Stripe Fractures when Enceladus is 90°–120° past pericenter in its orbit around Saturn, at which point tensile stresses would reach ∼2/3 of their maximum value. We also used the magnitude distribution of icequakes along Antarctic rifts to investigate implications for the likely size of stick‐slip rupture patches along icy faults on Enceladus. Our findings predict that the Tiger Stripe Fractures should produce sustained, low‐magnitude seismic events that involve rupture along discrete portions of each fracture's total length. We predict that seismicity would fall to 50% of peak levels when stresses across the Tiger Stripe Fractures are dominantly compressional.

Thermal regime and state of hydration of the Antarctic upper mantle from regional-scale electrical properties

Abstract Large-scale electrical resistivity investigations of the Antarctic crust and upper mantle utilizing the magnetotelluric method (MT) are limited in number compared to temperate regions, but provide physical insights hard to achieve with other techniques. Key to the method's success are the instrumentation advances that allow microvolt (µV)-level measurements of the MT electric field in the face of mega-ohm (MΩ) contact resistances. Primarily in this chapter, we reanalyse existing data from three campaigns over the Antarctic interior using modern 3D non-linear inversion analysis, and offer additional geophysical conclusions and context beyond the original studies. A profile of MT soundings over the transitional Ellsworth–Whitmore block in central West Antarctica implies near-cratonic lithospheric geothermal conditions with interpreted graphite–sulfide horizons deformed along margins of high-grade silicate lithological blocks. Reanalysis of South Pole soundings confirms large-scale low resistivity spanning Moho depths that is consistent with limited seismic tomography and elevated crustal thermal regime inferences. Upper mantle under a presumed adiabatic thermal gradient below the Ross Ice Shelf near the central Transantarctic Mountains appears to be of a moderately hydrated state but not sufficient to induce melting. The degree of hydration there is comparable to that below the north-central Great Basin province of the western USA.

Swell-Triggered Seismicity at the Near-Front Damage Zone of the Ross Ice Shelf

Abstract Ocean swell interacting with Antarctic ice shelves produces sustained (approximately, 2×106 cycles per year) gravity-elastic perturbations with deformation amplitudes near the ice front as large as tens to hundreds of nanostrain. This process is the most energetically excited during the austral summer, when sea ice-induced swell attenuation is at a minimum. A 2014–2017 deployment of broadband seismographs on the Ross Ice shelf, which included three stations sited, approximately, 2 km from the ice front, reveals prolific swell-associated triggering of discrete near-ice-front (magnitude≲0) seismic subevents, for which we identify three generic types. During some strong swell episodes, subevent timing becomes sufficiently phase-locked with swell excitation, to create prominent harmonic features in spectra calculated across sufficiently lengthy time windows via a Dirac comb effect, for which we articulate a theoretical development for randomized interevent times. These events are observable at near-front stations, have dominant frequency content between 0.5 and 20 Hz, and, in many cases, show highly repetitive waveforms. Matched filtering detection and analysis shows that events occur at a low-background rate during all swell states, but become particularly strongly excited during large amplitude swell at rates of up to many thousands per day. The superimposed elastic energy from swell-triggered sources illuminates the shelf interior as extensional (elastic plate) Lamb waves that are observable more than 100 km from the ice edge. Seismic swarms show threshold excitation and hysteresis with respect to rising and falling swell excitation. This behavior is consistent with repeated seismogenic fracture excitation and growth within a near-ice-front damage zone, encompassing fracture features seen in satellite imagery. A much smaller population of distinctly larger near-front seismic events, previously noted to be weakly associated with extended periods of swell perturbation, likely indicate calving or other larger-scale ice failures near the shelf front.