Research on predictive frameworks for the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of mechanical systems is limited. This study proposes a comprehensive RUL prediction framework for roller bearings, integrating early failure assessment, adaptive failure threshold determination, and an adaptive drift fractional-order Pareto degradation model. To tackle data insufficiency, multi-sensor fusion combines time-domain, frequency-domain, and time–frequency features. The framework normalizes the health indicator (HI) using Mahalanobis distance and a sigmoid function, and employs the MD-CUSUM technique for early fault detection. Dynamic threshold updating is achieved through BOX-COX transformation and Chebyshev inequality, establishing confidence intervals. The model demonstrates significant results: lowest RMSE of 5.4267, MAE of 3.7857, highest SOR of 0.90936, HD of 0.93543, PICP of 57.143%, and the narrowest MPIW of 9.45, showing enhanced accuracy and reduced uncertainty. Validation with the XJTU-SY bearing dataset confirms improved performance.