All governments produce policy analysis. It has always been predictive and value-laden. Consider the story in Genesis of Joseph, perhaps the first professional policy analyst celebrated by name. He predicted seven years of plenty followed by seven years of scarcity in interpreting the Pharaoh's dreams. The Pharaoh readily appreciated the value, both for himself and his people, of the policy of stockpiling during the years of plenty to avoid famine during the years of scarcity, and he delegated all his author ity (save the throne itself) to Joseph so he could implement it. Since the Enlightenment, the basis for prediction has become more rational and the con sideration of social values has become 1 more explicit. The emergence of repre sentative government has reduced the likelihood that any policy analyst ever enjoy Joseph's immense influence and power. It has also resulted in a pro liferation of roles for policy analysis. The project of designing institutions to promote the good society ought not ignore these roles. Yet the task of assessing the social desirability of the possi ble roles for policy analysis is complicated because it cannot be isolated from the context of particular political regimes. In order to assess appropriate roles for policy analysis in the good soci ety, one must assume at least the general form of the political institutions of the good society. Would these forms be radically different from those we observe in mature representative democ racies today? Several considerations make me think that they would not. On the one hand, the Western democracies have done quite well overall during the last century. Although there have been some setbacks, they have generally expanded the politically enfranchised proportions of their populations, defended them selves from aggressive totalitarian states, protected human rights, facilitated greater health, wealth, and longevity, and improved the quality of the physical environment. I thus agree with Karol Soltan that, as Madisonian constitutionalism and capitalism have been successes, there is no need for a Third Way (Soltan, 1996: 78-79). On the other hand, there are certainly limitations to the performance of representative government. At the deepest the oretical level, the problems of social choice implied by Arrow's Ge eral Possibility Theorem argue that no democratic system can be relied upon to reveal consistently the will of the people (Riker, 1982). With respect to representative government, the problems of collective action (Olson, 1973, 1982) and the costs of monitoring representatives suggest it is unlikely that institu tion can be discovered that guarantee equal voice to the vari ous interests in society. The successes of representative democracies, coupled with the inherent theoretical limits to their perfection, lead me to assume that the good soci ety would have a political regime not too dissimilar from those found in Western Europe and the United States. To facilitate a more concrete discussion, I take the contemporary political insti tutions of the United States as the gen eral context for considering the role of policy analysis in the good society.2 Within this context, I make the fol lowing arguments. First, policy analy sis can improve public discourse by contributing policy alternatives to the political process, by pro viding better predictions of the consequences of proposed poli cies, and by making explicit arguments for the consideration of the full range of social values, especially those that tend to be underrepresented in representative democracy. Second, institu ions to promote these contributions can be imagined. Indeed, some already exist. Third, although greater participation in pol icy analysis is desirable, the most socially beneficial institutional changes be those that expand participation beyond the most pr minent stakeholders. Finally, a professionalization of policy analysis that promotes the virtues of analytical integrity, humil ity, patience, and fortitude would enable policy analysts to play more effective roles in promoting the good society.
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Sep 16, 2024
Richard K Crump + 2
Open Access