Role Of Macroeconomic Environment Research Articles

Prediction of Banks Distress – Regional Differences and Macroeconomic Conditions

In this study we focus on distress events of European banks over the period of 1990–2015, using unbalanced panel of 3,691 banks. We identify 132 distress events, which include actual bankruptcies as well as bailout cases. We apply CAMEL‑like bank‑level variables and control macroeconomic variables (GDP, inflation, unemployment rate). The analysis is based on traditional logistic regression and k‑means clustering. We find, that the probability of distress is connected with macroeconomic conditions via regional grouping (clustering). Bank‑level variables that were stable predictors of distress from 1 to 4 years prior to event are equity to total assets ratio (leverage) and loans to funding (liquidity).
 From macroeconomic factors, the GDP growth is a reasonable variable, however with differentiated impact: for 1 year distance high distress probability is connected with low GDP growth, but for 2, 3 and 4 year distance: high distress probability is conversely connected with high GDP growth.
 This shows the changing role of macroeconomic environment and indicates the potential impact of favorable macroeconomic conditions on building‑up systemic problems in the banking sector.

Entrepreneurial propensity index of university students. The case study from the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland

Research background: Promotion of the entrepreneurship has an important role in the society, and the direct relationship between entrepreneurship and economic growth of the country is proven. Universities education should be one of the pillars to build the business environment and the entrepreneurial propensity of the students in the entrepreneurship.
 Purpose of the article: The paper aimed to define and quantify significant factors that shape the entrepreneurial propensity of university students and create the entrepreneurial propensity index. A part of this aim was a comparison of defined factors in the Czech Republic (CR), Slovakia (SR) and Poland (PL).
 Methods: The survey-based research was conducted with students in the last year of their economic studies on the universities. 1,352 students from 25 universities in selected countries were approached during research. A custom Entrepreneurial Propensity Index was created that was implemented separately for CR, SR and PL.
 Findings & Value added: The research brought interesting findings. The aggregated Entrepreneurial Propensity Index in the Czech Republic reached the value of 0.470, which was higher than that of Slovakia (0.424) and Poland (0.412). The evaluation of the quality of university education is similarly positive in all countries (CR: 0.659, PL: 0.589, SR: 0.592). Czech students gave access to the financial resources and the role of macroeconomic environment got a higher rating than Slovak and Polish students. On the contrary, Poland students gave the social environment and business advantages a higher rating than Czech and Slovak students. The evaluation of the personality traits is more positive in Slovakia. The most positive indicator for all students is that doing business enables to make use of own abilities and own solutions.

Flow of migrants' remittances into Sudan: the role of macroeconomic environment

Considering the importance of migrants' remittances as a vital source of financing economic development and foreign exchange in Sudan's economy, this study investigates the role of the macroeconomic environment in attracting migrants' remittances into Sudan. The study uses the autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration, impulse response functions (IRSs) and variance decomposition (VDC) techniques. The empirical results indicate that macroeconomic policy variables play an important role in encouraging the flow of remittances via formal channels. The inflation rate and the black market exchange rate premium have a negative effect on remittances in both short and long run. The home income variable is found to discourage the flow of remittances, supporting the altruistic behavior of emigrants in transferring money. Moreover, the study found that foreign income exerts positive and significant effects on remittances. Based on these findings, the paper concludes with some policy implications regarding the improvement of the macroeconomic environment, as a necessary condition to facilitate the flow of remittances through official channels.