Role Of Monetary Policy Research Articles

Monetary Policy in an Open Economy: The Role of Financial Dollarization

In the paper we extend the Gerali et al. (2010) model to an open economy model with dual-currency banking and endogenously determined dollarization. The model incorporates a portfolio allocation problem in households' and entrepreneurs' decisions, so that they choose optimal currency structure of their deposits and loans based on interest rate differentials and their expectations about exchange rate movements. The optimal structure of deposit and loan portfolios yields in disparate dollarization rates.The model is estimated for Armenia using the data from 2004 to 2014. The comparison of the models with and without dollarization shows that the role of monetary policy in quite different in dollarized economies, since it primarily affects the economic activity by exchange rate channel, rather than by interest rate channel. This result claims for a different approach to monetary policy implementation in dollarized countries.

Transmission of Global Financial Shocks to EMU Member States: The Role of Monetary Policy and National Factors

The paper analyses the transmission of global financial shocks to individual member states of the European Monetary Union (EMU), in which monetary policy is delegated to the ECB and financial markets are fully integrated. Using a panel VAR model, we show that the asymmetric effects of global shocks on member states are partly offset by the uniform access of commercial banks to the Eurosystem's open market operations in conjunction with the redistribution of liquidity via the TARGET mechanism. However, an appropriate policy mix of sound public finances, solid financial regulation and targeted macroprudential measures is necessary in order to safeguard macroeconomic sustainability without needing to manage capital flows.

The Role of Monetary Policy as the Foundation of Economic Development in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Abstract: Macroeconomic stabilization of every country depends largely upon the conduct of appropriate economic policy, which comprises both fiscal and monetary policy; therefore, it is of great importance to choose the most adequate and productive ones. Many countries across the board have employed monetary policy in their attempt to ease the consequences of economic crises in the aftermath of global financial meltdown, and in the search for sustainable economic development. This paper was confined to the monetary policy in Bosnia and Herzegovina specifically, and its aim was to address the current Currency Board Regime along with the available monetary policy instruments and to determine whether an opportunity for the improvement of economic growth and consequently economic development lies within it. The importance of Central Bank was stressed out, as it represents the anchor of the monetary system. The paper comprises the analysis of the implemented CBR, its brief history, monetary policy instruments available and its consequences on the economy of BH therefore, it is thought that abandoning the arrangement either by joining the EMU or by making the Central Bank more independent is necessary. Key words: Macroeconomic Stabilization Monetary Policy Instruments;BH Economic Development; Monetary Easing

How Friedman and Schwartz Became Monetarists

During the late-1940s and the early-1950s Milton Friedman favored a rule under which fiscal policy would be used to generate changes in the money supply with the aim of stabilizing output at full employment. He believed that the economy is inherently unstable because of endogenous movements in money supply under a fractional-reserve banking system. In her work, Anna Schwartz downplayed the role of monetary factors in business cycles and the role of monetary policy as a stabilization tool. We show how the joint work of Friedman and Schwartz from 1948 to 1958 led Friedman to view money as the “primary mover” of the business cycle and underpinned his shift to a rule based on money growth so that discretionary monetary policy would not act as a source of destabilizing shocks. The decisive factor in the evolution of Friedman’s thinking was the empirical confirmation that the Great Depression had been both initiated and deepened by the Fed. The largely neglected influence of Clark Warburton on the evolution of Friedman’s thinking provides a missing -- but crucial -- link in explaining Friedman’s recognition of the role of monetary factors in the Great Depression and of the Fed’s ability to offset the destabilizing effects produced by shifts from deposits into currency under a fractional-reserve banking system.

Anomaly in Stock-Bond Correlations: The Role of Monetary Policy

The paper estimates constant conditional correlation (CCC) GARCH models to test whether the dramatic changes in stock-bond market correlations can be explained by monetary policy variables such as OIS interest rate shocks or volatility regimes. We find that both specifications are empirically relevant: Correlations decrease after positive monetary shocks (decreasing rates) as well as in times with large central bank activity (high rate volatility regimes).

The Two Approaches to Money: Debt, Central Banks, and Functional Finance

The scientific reassessment of the economic role of the state after the crisis has brought back Abba Lerner’s theory of functional finance (FF). A thorough discussion of this concept is helpful in reconsidering the debate on the nature of money, the origin of the business cycle, and crises. It also allows a reevaluation of many policy issues, such as the Barro-Ricardo equivalence, the cause of inflation, and the role of monetary policy. FF, throwing a different light on these issues, can provide a sound foundation for discussing income, fiscal, and monetary policy rules in the right context of flexibility in the management of national budgets, assessing what kind of policies should be awarded priority and the effectiveness of tackling the crisis with the different part of public budget. It also allows us to understand ways of increasing efficiency through public investment while reducing the total operational costs of firms. In the specific context of the eurozone, FF is useful for assessing the institutional framework of the euro and how to improve it in the face of protracted low growth, deflation, and weak public finances.

Economic Fluctuations and the Role of Monetary Policy: An Investigation of an Agent-based Model

AbstractThe merit of ABM comes directly from removing set of unreal assumptions that are commonly assumed in standard models. Not only can ABM regenerates macroeconomics regularities at the same level as the traditional models without introducing any exogenous process but also displays the ability to capture microeconomics dynamics. Simulation results conform to standard monetary economics theory—expansionary monetary policy can be used as a stabilization tool and leave no permanent impacts to real variables. When an economy experiences growth, an increase in money supply is required to stabilize price level, otherwise, severe deflation is expected as well as high fluctuations in unemployment level. Simple monetary policy can be used to stabilize such fluctuations and would reduced economy-wide default risk, which may have positive economic impacts in the long run. Provided that agents do not hold assets in this model setup, the study supports Friedman’s K-percent rule as it performs the best in term of output improvement. The asymmetric effects of monetary policy are found in number of aspects: impact to GDP, impact duration, and impact to unemployment level. Less flexibility in downward price adjustment is the reason behind such asymmetric responses.

Macroeconomic effects of financial stress and the role of monetary policy: a VAR analysis for the euro area

This paper analyses an otherwise standard macro-financial VAR model for the euro area that includes - apart from conventional measures of output, inflation and monetary policy - a composite indicator of systemic financial stress, namely the CISS index, and total assets of the ECB balance sheet capturing the stance of unconventional monetary policy. I find that the CISS contributes significantly to the dynamics of the macroeconomy and exerts a strong influence on monetary policy when looking at both policy rates and the ECB balance sheet. The significance of the CISS appears robust to the inclusion of a broad set of real and financial control variables. Based on tests of direct versus indirect (Granger-)causality patterns proposed in Hsiao (1982), I also find that unlike unconventional policy as measured by ECB balance sheet growth, the policy rate does not seem to react directly to variations in financial stress but rather indirectly through the impact of financial stress on macroeconomic conditions. These different patterns of reaction are broadly consistent with the ECB’s “separation principle”. The estimated effects of the ECB’s standard and non-standard policy measures on inflation and economic growth are moderate, although an easier stance in both policy tools helps calm down financial stress.

Role of monetary policy in a New Keynesian economy: a note from a laboratory experiment

This paper discusses an experimental study on the role of monetary policy within a New Keynesian macroeconomic framework. The novelty of this article is that each subject was asked to forecast both the inflation rate and output gap at the same time one period ahead, which is an improvement over the existing literature. We find that if both the expected inflation rate and expected output gap is incorporated in the monetary policy rule then inflation can be anchored and stabilized more efficiently.

Debt, labor markets, and the creation and destruction of firms

We analyze the financing and liquidation decisions of firms that face a labor market with search frictions. By inducing bankruptcy, debt can facilitate the process of creative destruction (i.e., the elimination of inefficient firms and the creation of new firms) but can also lead to excessive liquidation and unemployment in particular, during economic downturns. Within this setting, we examine policy interventions that influence the firms׳ financing and liquidation choices. We consider the role of monetary policy, which can reduce debt burdens during economy-wide downturns, and tax policy, which can influence the incentives of firms to use debt financing.

The role of monetary policy in macroeconomic regulation Uzbekistan

Minimum (mandatory) reserves is the most liquid assets, which are required to have all credit institutions, as a rule, either in the form of cash on hand or in the form of deposits with the Central Bank or other forms of highly determined by the Central Bank Uzbekistan. In Uzbekistan, the impact of this policy in the money supply is used as the main tool.

Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Stress and the Role of Monetary Policy: A VAR Analysis for the Euro Area

This paper analyses a macro-financial VAR model for the euro area that includes -- apart from conventional measures of output, inflation and monetary policy -- a composite indicator of systemic financial stress, namely the CISS index, and total assets of the ECB balance sheet capturing the stance of unconventional monetary policy. I find that the CISS contributes significantly to the dynamics of the macroeconomy and exerts a strong influence on monetary policy when looking at both policy rates and the ECB balance sheet. The significance of the CISS appears robust to the inclusion of a broad set of real and financial control variables. Based on tests of direct versus indirect (Granger-)causality patterns proposed in Hsiao (1982), I also find that unlike unconventional policy as measured by ECB balance sheet growth, the policy rate does not seem to react directly to variations in financial stress but rather indirectly through the impact of financial stress on macroeconomic conditions. These different patterns of reaction are broadly consistent with the ECB's separation principle. The estimated effects of the ECB's standard and non-standard policy measures on inflation and economic growth are moderate although a more easy stance in both policy tools helps calming down financial stress.

Eurosystem Collateral Policy and Framework — Post-Lehman Time as a New Collateral Space

Collateral plays a central role in monetary policy. In recent years, its importance has increased as uncollateralised inter-bank borrowing has gradually been replaced by collateralised central bank lending. This has in turn affected collateral availability and the need for high-quality assets. The European Central Bank has reacted to this development by creating a series of different measures to broaden collateral availability, including changing the eligibility rules (e.g. reducing rating thresholds for certain asset classes) or extending the eligible assets (e.g. allowing national central banks to accept bank loans as collateral). In the context of these developments, this article assesses and comments on various aspects of the Eurosystem collateral policy and overall framework. In particular, it examines the economic implications of the current ECB collateral policy for asset allocation and relative asset price developments from a cross-country perspective.

Взгляд социологов на экономику и государство: от противопоставления самостоятельных общностей к раскрытию их содержательной взаимосвязи Рецензия на книгу: Bandelj N., Sowers E. 2010. Economy and State: A Sociological Perspective. Cambridge, UK: Polity Press

The book Economy and State: A Sociological Perspective written by Nina Bandelj and Elizabeth Sowers opposes an economy-state dualism approach to economy-state embeddedness theories. Bandelj and Sowers follow Polanyi’s intellectual tradition and analyze the economy as instituted process focusing on the roles of the state. This book explores such fields of interest as property (the state’s role in capitalist and socialist economies), money (the state’s role in monetary policy, government spending, and taxation), labor (the state’s role in redistribution and employment), firms (the state’s role in business and industry governance), development (the state’s role in advancing economic prosperity), and international and global economy (the state’s role in managing the territorial boundaries of economic transactions). Markin argues that the institutional approach that Bandelj and Sowers chose as a core approach for their book is very fruitful for macro-analysis but it is not very appropriate for micro-analysis. In his review, Markin focuses on the roles of the state in turning land, labor and capital into “fictitious commodities” and the state’s role in the social construction of economic institutions. As Bandelj and Sowers do not provide a micro-analysis of state regulation of markets, Markin discusses these issues with help of the papers written by other scholars.

Limited Liability, Asset Price Bubbles and the Credit Cycle: The Role of Monetary Policy

This paper suggests that non-fundamental component in asset prices is one of the drivers of the financial and credit cycle. The presented model builds on the financial accelerator literature by including a stock market where limitedly-liable investors trade stocks of productive firms with stochastic productivities. Investors borrow funds from the banking sector and can go bankrupt. Their limited liability induces a moral hazard problem which shifts demand for risk and drives prices of risky assets above their fundamental value. Embedding the contracting problem in a New Keynesian general equilibrium framework, the model shows that loose monetary policy induces loose credit conditions and leads to a rise in both fundamental and non-fundamental components of stock prices. Positive shock to non-fundamental component triggers a financial cycle: collateral values rise, lending and default rates decrease. These effects reverse after several quarters, inducing a credit crunch. The credit boom lasts only while stock market growth maintains sufficient momentum. However, monetary policy does not reduce the volatility of inflation and output gap by reacting to asset prices.

Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy

Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. This is important given the central role in monetary policy of assessments of economic activity relative to capacity. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable ex ante based on characteristics like output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from typical monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to output gap revisions. These revisions explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions.

The Two Approaches to Money: Debt, Central Banks, and Functional Finance

The scientific reassessment of the economic role of the state after the crisis has renewed interest in Abba Lerner's theory of functional finance (FF). A thorough discussion of this concept is helpful in reconsidering the debate on the nature of money and the origin of the business cycle and crises. It also allows a reevaluation of many policy issues, such as the Barro-Ricardo equivalence, the cause of inflation, and the role of monetary policy. FF, throwing a different light on these issues, can provide a sound foundation for discussing income, fiscal, and monetary policy rules in the right context of flexibility in the management of national budgets, assessing what kind of policies should be awarded priority, and the effectiveness of tackling the crisis with the different part of public budget. It also allows us to understand ways of increasing efficiency through public investment while reducing the total operational costs of firms. In the specific context of the eurozone, FF is useful for assessing the institutional framework of the euro and how to improve it in the face of protracted low growth, deflation, and weak public finances.

Policy Mandates for Macro-Prudential and Monetary Policies in a New Keynesian Framework

In the aftermath of the financial crisis, the role of monetary policy and macro-prudential regulation in promoting financial stability is under discussion. The old debate concerning whether monetary policy should respond to credit and asset price bubbles was revived, whereas macro-prudential regulation is being assessed as an alternative macroeconomic tool to deal with financial imbalances. The paper explores both sides of the debate in a New Keynesian framework with financial frictions by comparing the welfare and stabilisation impacts of distinct policy regimes. First, we investigate whether there is a welfare benefit from monetary policy leaning against financial instability. We show that monetary policy rules of this type perform better than conventional monetary rules. Second, by introducing macro-prudential regulation in the model, results from optimal policy analysis suggest also that there are welfare gains, even in the case in which monetary and macro-prudential authorities are independent and react to their own policy goal. JEL Classification: E30, E50, G28

Interest Rates 1: What are Interest Rates?

This is the first in a series of seven papers on interest rates and it covers the basic terms and information required for a fuller understanding of the significance of interest rates: the instruments that interest rates apply to, the bank interest margin which plays an important transmission role in monetary policy, time value of money, types, relationship between rates and prices, and other relevant issues. The seven papers cover: (1) what are interest rates?; (2) relationship of interest rates; (3) composition of interest rates; (4) interest rate discovery; (5) bank liquidity & interest rate discovery; (6) role of interest rates; (7) an optimal rate of interest: the natural rate.

Europe's Quest for Monetary Stability: Central Banking Gone Astray

This paper provides an overview of central banking arrangements in those European countries that have adopted the euro. Issues addressed include the structure of the Eurosystem and its central banking functions, the kind of independence granted to the system and the role of monetary policy that central bankers have adopted for themselves, the two-pillar policy framework, operating procedures, and actual performance since the euro's launch in 1999. The analysis concludes that, given the current macroeconomic policy regime, trends, and practices, the euro is on track for failure.