Rock Wall Permafrost Research Articles

Modelling present and future rock wall permafrost distribution in the Sisimiut mountain area, West Greenland

Abstract. Degrading rock wall permafrost was found responsible for the increase in rockfall and landslide activity in several cold mountain regions across the globe. In Greenland, rock wall permafrost has so far received little attention from the scientific community, despite mountains being a predominant feature on the ice-free coastline and landslide activity being significant. In this study, we aim to make a first step towards a better understanding of rock wall permafrost in Greenland by modelling rock wall temperatures in the mountain area around the town of Sisimiut, which is 68° N on the west coast of Greenland. We first acquire rock surface temperature (RST) data for the period September 2020–September 2022 to model rock surface temperatures from weather forcing. The model is then applied to weather data from 1870 to 2022, generating rock surface temperatures to force transient heat transfer simulations over the same period. By extrapolating this method at the landscape scale, we obtain permafrost distribution maps and ad hoc simulations for complex topographies. Our model results are compared to temperature data from two lowland boreholes (100 m depth) and geophysical data describing frozen and unfrozen conditions across a mid-elevation mountain ridge. Finally, we use regional carbon pathway scenarios 2.6 and 8.5 to evaluate future evolution of rock wall temperatures until the end of the 21st century. Our data and simulation describe discontinuous permafrost distribution in rock walls up to roughly 400 m a.s.l. Future scenarios suggest a decline of deep frozen bodies up to 800 m a.s.l., i.e. the highest summits in the area. In summary, this study depicts a picture of warm permafrost in this area, highlighting its sensitivity to ongoing climate change.

From Rockfall Observation to Operational Solutions: Nearly 20 years of Cryo-gravitational Hazard Studies in Mont-Blanc Massif

The enhanced rockfall frequency (V > 100 m3) first noticed in the European Alps, has motivated investigations on high mountain rock walls and rock wall permafrost since the 2000s. Mont-Blanc massif (MBM) has become a pilot study area thanks to the wealth of data and knowledge on rockfall and permafrost dynamics acquired through successive research projects. Statistical analysis of rockfall distribution (> 1300 events inventoried between 2007 and 2021) shows that they are related to permafrost distribution and increasing atmospheric temperature, opening promising perspective for developing forecasting tools to support mountain practitioners in their risk mitigation strategy. However, understanding how rock wall destabilizations develop is challenged by the variety of potentially involved thermo-hydro-mechanical processes. To face these challenges, research currently carried out in the MBM focuses on water infiltration and circulation processes in frozen rock walls by combining advanced numerical modelling approaches and ad hoc field surveys. The coupling of models simulating heat and water transport with geoelectrical imaging methods could allow assessment of ground water/ice distributions and contents that is highly relevant for geotechnical purposes. Concurrently, the combination of acquired data and knowledge in integrative approaches of landscape changes and hazards involving permafrost degradation, glacier retreat, possible lake formation and rock wall destabilization appears as an essential basis for land-planning concerns. Finally, thermal and hydrological interactions between rock wall permafrost and ice bodies nestled on rock faces (ice aprons and hanging glaciers) is another direction of research to be pursued with cross-disciplinary implications.

Water Flows in Rock Wall Permafrost: A Numerical Approach Coupling Hydrological and Thermal Processes

AbstractRock wall permafrost is highly sensitive to atmospheric warming. Its degradation is regarded as a primary factor accounting for the recent increase in periglacial rock slope failures. Investigations of rock wall permafrost have so far ignored hydrological processes acting in bedrock fractures. We propose a 2‐D coupled thermal and hydrological modeling approach applied to alpine rock wall permafrost. Simulations are carried out on the scale of the mountain flank for four case studies with variable saturation levels and hydrological forcings. Results show that cold water infiltration from the summit leads to a deeper permafrost body than with no water flows. Ice‐filled fractures first delay permafrost thawing due to latent heat consumption but then accelerate it when the ice starts to melt. Ice may thus subsist in fractures surrounded by thawed bedrock while thawing corridors may form in fractures embedded in frozen bedrock. As a result, temperature gradients are made steeper. When connected fractures thaw, bottom‐up permafrost degradation can occur through upward propagation of thawing wedges delineated by these fractures. High hydraulic head values are associated with the formation of perched water tables above or within the impermeable permafrost body, and correspond to hydrostatic pressures that could reach critical values in terms of rock wall stability. The proposed model setting is more appropriate for investigating long‐term permafrost changes, rock wall permafrost dynamics and hydrogeology across entire mountain flanks, but could be applied on a finer spatial scale to investigate short‐term permafrost response to climate signals and rock wall destabilization.

First evidence of rock wall permafrost in the Pyrenees (Vignemale peak, 3,298 m a.s.l., 42°46′16″N/0°08′33″W)

AbstractPermafrost is a relevant component of the Pyrenean high mountains, triggering a wide range of geomorphological cryogenic processes. Although in the past decades there has been an increase in frozen ground studies in the Pyrenees, there are no specific studies about rock wall permafrost, its presence, distribution, thermal regime, or historical evolution. This work combines measured rock surface temperatures (RSTs, from August 2013 to April 2016) along an elevation profile (four sites) on the north facing the rock wall of the Vignemale peak (3,298 m a.s.l., 42°46′16″N/0°08′33″W) and temperature modeling (CryoGRID2) to determine the presence of permafrost and to analyze its evolution since the mid‐20th century. Simulations are run with various RST forcings and bedrock properties to account for forcing data uncertainty and varying degrees of rock fracturing. Results reveal that warm permafrost may have existed down to 2,600 m a.s.l. until the early 1980s and that warm permafrost is currently found at ~2,800 m a.s.l. and up to 3,000 m a.s.l. Cold (<−2°C) permafrost may exist above 3,100–3,200 m a.s.l. Systematic investigations on rock wall permafrost must be conducted to refine those results in the Pyrenees. The elevation shift in warm permafrost suggests an imminent disappearance of permafrost in the Vignemale peak.

Rockslides and rock avalanches in the Central Andes of Argentina and their possible association with permafrost degradation

AbstractThe identification of hazardous slopes with degrading permafrost is a key task in the mountain periglacial environment. If rockslides have previously been preconditioned by rock wall permafrost, similar events may be triggered from present unstable rock walls. An inventory of rockslides and rock avalanches in the austral part of the Santa Cruz river basin (31°40′–31°50′S, 70°30′–70°10’W), San Juan, Argentina, was made. The study area comprises a surface of approximately 432 km2 (50% above 3,500 m asl); 15 rockslides, 12 complex rockslides evolving to rock avalanches and 19 rock avalanches were identified. The deposits were analyzed with remote sensory imagery and during fieldwork in order to study processes under permafrost degradation caused by global warming. Rock sampling procedures and laboratory rock‐resistivity testing were also carried out. We characterized the detachment scars and deposits for two rockslides. Two different mechanisms were identified. In one rockslide, shallow active layer detachment was favored by shear‐displacement along pre‐existing joints, as a result of short‐term periods of climate warming. In the other, long‐term permafrost degradation favored a deeper failure process. The studied landslide processes could not be explained by permafrost degradation alone. Faults, the geometric arrangement of their structural elements and seismic activity may contribute to trigger these phenomena. It is expected that the magnitude and frequency of rockslide hazards will increase during the 21st century.

Modelling rock wall permafrost degradation in the Mont Blanc massif from the LIA to the end of the 21st century

Abstract. High alpine rock wall permafrost is extremely sensitive to climate change. Its degradation has a strong impact on landscape evolution and can trigger rockfalls constituting an increasing threat to socio-economical activities of highly frequented areas; quantitative understanding of permafrost evolution is crucial for such communities. This study investigates the long-term evolution of permafrost in three vertical cross sections of rock wall sites between 3160 and 4300 m above sea level in the Mont Blanc massif, from the Little Ice Age (LIA) steady-state conditions to 2100. Simulations are forced with air temperature time series, including two contrasted air temperature scenarios for the 21st century representing possible lower and upper boundaries of future climate change according to the most recent models and climate change scenarios. The 2-D finite element model accounts for heat conduction and latent heat transfers, and the outputs for the current period (2010–2015) are evaluated against borehole temperature measurements and an electrical resistivity transect: permafrost conditions are remarkably well represented. Over the past two decades, permafrost has disappeared on faces with a southerly aspect up to 3300 m a.s.l. and possibly higher. Warm permafrost (i.e. > − 2 °C) has extended up to 3300 and 3850 m a.s.l. in N and S-exposed faces respectively. During the 21st century, warm permafrost is likely to extend at least up to 4300 m a.s.l. on S-exposed rock walls and up to 3850 m a.s.l. depth on the N-exposed faces. In the most pessimistic case, permafrost will disappear on the S-exposed rock walls at a depth of up to 4300 m a.s.l., whereas warm permafrost will extend at a depth of the N faces up to 3850 m a.s.l., but possibly disappearing at such elevation under the influence of a close S face. The results are site specific and extrapolation to other sites is limited by the imbrication of local topographical and transient effects.

Modelled Distribution and Temporal Evolution of Permafrost in Steep Rock Walls Along a Latitudinal Transect in Norway by CryoGrid 2D

Steep permafrost rock walls marking the transition from high-lying plains to low-altitude fjord and valley systems are common in Norway. We have investigated the climate sensitivity of rock wall permafrost along a latitudinal transect from southern to northern Norway (60°N to 70°N) using topographic profiles from both natural sites and idealised sites with simplified geometries with steep rock walls bordering a flat plateau. We applied a two-dimensional ((2)D) transient thermal model (CryoGrid 2D) that includes both space- and time-dependent thermal parameters and the latent heat of ice-water phase transitions. The model has been forced using temperature data interpolated from meteorological observations between the end of the Little Ice Age and present warmer climatic conditions. We varied our model runs by changing the assumption of snow covers and applying glaciers at the plateaus. Our results show that the existence, geometry and thermal regime of the permafrost varies strongly depending on the snow and glacier cover on the plateau. Snow-free rock walls substantially govern the heat flow out of the rock wall, cooling the mountain interior below the plateau and favouring the development of permafrost beneath the margins of some plateaus. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Determination of warm, sensitive permafrost areas in near‐vertical rockwalls and evaluation of distributed models by electrical resistivity tomography

AbstractAlpine rockwalls with warm permafrost (near 0°C) are the most active rockfall detachment zones in the Mont Blanc massif (MBM, French Alps) with more than 380 recent events. Near‐vertical rockwall permafrost is spatially controlled by variations in rock fractures, snow cover, and microtopography. A reliable method to validate the distribution of permafrost in critical and unstable areas does not yet exist. We present seven electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys measured on five near‐vertical rockwalls in the MBM from 2012 and 2013 that have been calibrated with measurements on a granite sample in the laboratory. ERT shows consistent measurements of remaining sensitive permafrost relating to inferred temperatures from 0 to −1.5°C. ERT results demonstrate evidence of topographic controls on permafrost distribution and resistivity gradients that appear to reflect crest width. ERT results are compared to two permafrost index maps that use topoclimatic factors and combine effects of thin snow and fractures, where index model spatial resolution is crucial for the validation with ERT. In cryospheric environments, index maps seem to overestimate permafrost conditions in glacial environments. As a consequence, the sensitive areas of permafrost may slightly deviate from the results from distributed models that are only constrained by topoclimatic factors and interpreted with consideration of local fracture and snow conditions. This study demonstrates (i) that the sensitive and hazardous areas of permafrost in near‐vertical rock faces can be assessed and monitored by the means of temperature‐calibrated ERT and (ii) that ERT can be used for distributed model validation.

Thermal characteristics of permafrost in the steep alpine rock walls of the Aiguille du Midi (Mont Blanc Massif, 3842 m a.s.l)

Abstract. Permafrost and related thermo-hydro-mechanical processes are thought to influence high alpine rock wall stability, but a lack of field measurements means that the characteristics and processes of rock wall permafrost are poorly understood. To help remedy this situation, in 2005 work began to install a monitoring system at the Aiguille du Midi (3842 m a.s.l). This paper presents temperature records from nine surface sensors (eight years of records) and three 10 m deep boreholes (4 years of records), installed at locations with different surface and bedrock characteristics. In line with previous studies, our temperature data analyses showed that: micro-meteorology controls the surface temperature, active layer thicknesses are directly related to aspect and ranged from <2 m to nearly 6 m, and that thin accumulations of snow and open fractures are cooling factors. Thermal profiles empirically demonstrated the coexistence within a single rock peak of warm and cold permafrost (about −1.5 to −4.5 °C at 10 m depth) and the resulting lateral heat fluxes. Our results also extended current knowledge of the effect of snow, in that we found similar thermo-insulation effects as reported for gentle mountain areas. Thick snow warms shaded areas, and may reduce active layer refreezing in winter and delay its thawing in summer. However, thick snow thermo-insulation has little effect compared to the high albedo of snow which leads to cooler conditions at the rock surface in areas exposed to the sun. A consistent inflection in the thermal profiles reflected the cooling effect of an open fracture in the bedrock, which appeared to act as a thermal cutoff in the sub-surface thermal regime. Our field data are the first to be obtained from an Alpine permafrost site where borehole temperatures are below −4 °C, and represent a first step towards the development of strategies to investigate poorly known aspects in steep bedrock permafrost such as the effects of snow cover and fractures.

Interaction of thermal and mechanical processes in steep permafrost rock walls: A conceptual approach

Degradation of permafrost rock wall decreases stability and can initiate rock slope instability of all magnitudes. Rock instability is controlled by the balance of shear forces and shear resistances. The sensitivity of slope stability to warming results from a complex interplay of shear forces and resistances. Conductive, convective and advective heat transport processes act to warm, degrade and thaw permafrost in rock walls. On a seasonal scale, snow cover changes are a poorly understood key control of the timing and extent of thawing and permafrost degradation. We identified two potential critical time windows where shear forces might exceed shear resistances of the rock. In early summer combined hydrostatic and cryostatic pressure can cause a peak in shear force exceeding high frozen shear resistance and in autumn fast increasing shear forces can exceed slower increasing shear resistance. On a multiannual system scale, shear resistances change from predominantly rock-mechanically to ice-mechanically controlled. Progressive rock bridge failure results in an increase of sensitivity to warming. Climate change alters snow cover and duration and, hereby, thermal and mechanical processes in the rock wall. Amplified thawing of permafrost will result in higher rock slope instability and rock fall activity. We present a holistic conceptual approach connecting thermal and mechanical processes, validate parts of the model with geophysical and kinematic data and develop future scenarios to enhance understanding on system scale.

Permafrost in Alpine Rock Faces from Jotunheimen and Hurrungane, Southern Norway

ABSTRACTThe warming and degradation of mountain permafrost within alpine areas is an important process influencing the stability of steep slopes and rock faces. In the mountains of southern Norway (Jotunheimen), an increase in ground temperatures has been recorded during the last 12 years, and modelling studies suggest the possible degradation of most mountain permafrost during the 21st century. To better estimate the thermal state of permafrost in steep rock walls in Norway, five temperature loggers were installed in 2009 and 2010, measuring the near‐surface rock wall temperatures in vertical rock faces. Surface temperatures in rock walls in Norway are on average higher than the ambient air temperature, by about 1 °C in shaded faces to more than 3 °C in faces with other aspects. An aspect dependency of rock wall temperatures is mainly visible during summer, with deviations of up to 4 °C between north‐ and south‐facing walls. Based on a 1D transient heat flow model, the active‐layer thickness at the study sites was estimated to be in the range of 3 m to 5 m at 2300 m asl and 1600 m asl, respectively. As a first‐order approximation, a spatial regression model based on elevation and potential incoming short‐wave radiation was used to estimate the lower limit and distribution of rock wall permafrost under present‐day conditions and for a scenario with average air temperatures increased by 2 °C. Today, the lower limit ranges from 1200–1300 m asl to 1600–1700 m asl in north‐ and south‐facing rock walls, respectively. With a warming of 2 °C, the lower limit would increase to about 1700 m and 2100 m, respectively, which corresponds to a loss of 70 per cent of the rock walls underlain by permafrost today in the study area, where more than half of the rock walls potentially containing permafrost are situated below 1800 m asl. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Rock‐wall temperatures in the Alps: modelling their topographic distribution and regional differences

AbstractRising temperatures or the complete thaw of permafrost in rock walls can affect their stability. Present as well as projected future atmospheric warming results in permafrost degradation and, as a consequence, makes knowledge of the spatial distribution and the temporal evolution of rock temperatures important. Rock‐face near‐surface temperatures have been measured over one year at 14 locations between 2500 and 4500 m a.s.l. in the Alps. Different slope aspects have been included in order to capture the maximum spatial differentiation of rock temperatures. These data were used to further develop and verify an energy‐balance model that simulates daily surface temperatures over complex topography. Based on a 21‐year (1982–2002) run of this model, spatial patterns of rock‐face temperatures in the Swiss Alps are presented and discussed. This model provides a basis for the re‐analysis of past rock‐fall events with respect to permafrost degradation as well as for the simulation of future trends of rock temperatures. Furthermore, the spatial patterns of rock‐wall temperatures provide a quantitative insight into the topography‐related mechanisms affecting permafrost distribution in Alpine areas without local influence from snow cover or an active layer with a complex thermal offset. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.