Abstract. Loans are an important source of revenue for most banks and lending institutions. Improving the accuracy of personal repayment capacity predictions is particularly crucial. It is of great significance for reducing credit risk, optimizing the credit assessment system, and ensuring market stability. This paper uses various models for the predictions. In terms of evaluation, this paper uses the ROC curve as a criterion to assess the practicality of the models. At the same time, to ensure that the most practical model does not suffer from overfitting or underfitting, this paper also uses learning curves to ensure the usability of the entire model. Experimental results have demonstrated that the XGBoost model outperformed other models in predicting credit defaults, achieving a high ROC score of 0.71. Although it cannot predict very well in actual situations, it can also demonstrate through various assessments that the XGBoost model is highly usable and has great potential. The XGBoost model can become a trend in future prediction models by continuously improving the dataset and conducting more tests. This can help governments or banks to roughly understand which customers will default in the next month and take corresponding actions accordingly.
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