Applying deep learning techniques in predicting traffic crashes provides a possibility to achieve the vision of “zero fatalities” by implementing a proactive safety countermeasure. The overly sparse distribution of crashes hinders high-precision prediction of crash risks in urban areas. The lack of effective crash association analysis also reduces the interpretability of the prediction model. To address these gaps, this paper proposes a novel method, Priori Spatial and Temporal Causal Graph Convolutional Network (PST-CGCN) for predicting crash risk based on causal inference and graph convolutional network. In PST-CGCN, a data enhancement strategy utilizing historic priori spatial and temporal knowledge is employed to improve the distinguishability between crash data, then a graph convolutional network based on causal association is designed. The focus of this study is to shift attention from using multiple data sources to predict traffic risk to exploring the intrinsic temporal and spatial causal relationship between traffic crashes in different regions. Results from the NYC case study show that PST-CGCN model performs best compared with seven baseline models on three indicators, identifying high crash risk periods and areas in short-term forecasting. The results of ablation experiments on the PST-CGCN demonstrate the rationality of each component in the framework. Besides, gradient analysis combined with causal association is applied to explore directed causal relationships between regions, which enhances the model’s interpretability.
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