Road Traffic Fatalities Research Articles

The contribution of excessive or inappropriate speeds to road traffic crashes and fatalities: A review of literature

Road traffic crashes and fatalities pose a significant global challenge, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where a major cause is consistently linked to speeding (i.e., excessive or inappropriate speeds). However, the existing body of evidence regarding the estimated contribution of speeding to crashes and fatalities, remains limited and is considered outdated. This paper bridges this knowledge gap by reviewing evidence on the contribution of speeding to crashes and fatalities. The review draws on a wide range of sources including peer-reviewed studies on the subject, road safety monitoring-reports and available data summaries (104 sources). Data reliability was confirmed by including studies based on or linked to primary sources like police records, and excluding those with poor quality, implausible results, or lacked references to primary sources. The included sources contained 37 estimates from high-income countries (HICs), and 67 estimates from LMICs. Globally, HIC and LMIC estimates of contribution were calculated by assigning weights based on the proportion of fatalities in each country under this study. The results indicated that speeding contributes to approximately 54 % of fatalities worldwide, 57 % in LMICs, and 28 % in HICs. This translates to a speeding-related death every 49 s, with a 95 % likelihood of occurring in LMICs. These findings carry significant implications for policymakers emphasizing the urgent need to prioritize interventions that reduce speeding and improve road safety. Investigating gaps in LMICs data sources is a critical priority. In-depth studies and speeding intervention evaluations will enhance our current understanding of speeding contribution to crashes and fatalities.

A study of the impact of traffic investment on traffic fatalities in China, 2004–2020

PurposeRoad traffic injuries (RTIs) have been one of the most serious public health problems in China. The purpose of this study was to investigate the extent to which traffic investment affects traffic fatalities in China as well as regional differences. MethodsThe study analyzed the correlation between traffic investment and traffic fatalities, incorporating additional factors such as economic conditions, road infrastructure, population density, and lighting. The selected variables included the number of traffic fatalities, traffic investment, urban per capita road area, urban road length, road mileage, urban road lighting, population size, and per capita gross domestic product. Relevant data between 2004 and 2020 were collected for an analysis using a fixed effect regression model. A p < 0.05 is considered statistically significant. To reduce the heterogeneity caused by regional differences, the provinces were divided into 6 groups according to administrative districts, and the clustering standard error analysis was carried out. ResultsOverall, there has been a significant improvement in road safety in China from 2004 to 2020, but some regions show an increase in traffic fatalities. The model reveals that traffic investment is significantly and positively correlated with the number of traffic fatalities. Holding all other factors constant, each 10,000 yuan increase in transport investment was associated with an average increase of 0.22 road traffic fatalities. In the analysis of regional differences, there was a significant positive correlation between traffic investment and traffic fatalities in the Northwest region and an increase of 10,000 yuan leads to an increase of 0.47. There was a significant negative correlation between road mileage, urban road lighting system, and population and traffic fatalities. For example, holding other factors constant, a 10,000 km reduction in road length would increase the number of traffic deaths by 45.56. The model results of urban per capita road area, urban road length, per capita gross domestic product, and the explained variables showed that p > 0.100, which was not statistically significant. ConclusionsTherefore, traffic investments are essential for governments to develop measures to enhance road safety and reduce the risk of road fatalities. Adjusting traffic road investment and other covariates is conducive to improving traffic safety and reducing the risk of road fatalities. The road safety situation in different regions of China varies greatly. Local governments should consider the actual conditions to provide better road safety configuration policies.

Leveraging computer vision for predicting collision risks: a cross-sectional analysis of 2019–2021 fatal collisions in the USA

ObjectiveThe USA has higher rates of fatal motor vehicle collisions than most high-income countries. Previous studies examining the role of the built environment were generally limited to small geographic areas...

Lost years, mortality burden: the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on premature death due to road traffic accidents in a northern state in Malaysia

BackgroundThis study addresses the persistent global burden of road traffic fatalities, particularly in middle-income countries like Malaysia, by exploring the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Road Traffic Accident (RTA) fatalities in Perak state, Malaysia, with a secondary focus on applying Years of Life Lost (YLL) to understand the implications of these premature deaths.MethodologyThe cross-sectional study retrospectively reviewed certified RTA fatalities from 2018 to 2021, individually counting fatalities in accidents and excluding cases with incomplete death profiles. Data were collected from all Forensic Departments in the government hospitals in Perak. RTA fatalities were confirmed by medical officers/physicians following established procedures during routine procedures. A total of 2517 fatal accident and victim profiles were transcribed into data collection form after reviewing death registration records and post-mortem reports. Inferential analyses were used for comparison between pre- and during COVID-19 pandemic. The standard expected YLL was calculated by comparing the age of death to the external standard life expectancy curve taking into consideration of age and gender in Malaysia.ResultsThis study included 2207 (87.7%) of the RTA fatalities in Perak State. The analysis revealed a decreasing trend in RTA deaths from 2018 to 2021, with a remarkable Annual Percent Change (APC) of -25.1% in 2020 compared to the pre-pandemic year in 2019 and remained stable with lower APC in 2021. Comparison between pre-pandemic (2018–2019) and pandemic years (2020–2021) revealed a difference in the fatality distribution with a median age rise during the pandemic (37.7 (IQR: 22.96, 58.08) vs. 41.0 (IQR: 25.08, 61.00), p = 0.002). Vehicle profiles remained consistent, yet changes were observed in the involvement of various road users, where more motorcycle riders and pedestrian were killed during pandemic (p = 0.049). During pandemic, there was a decline in vehicle collisions, but slight increase of the non-collision accidents and incidents involving pedestrians/animals (p = 0.015). A shift in accident from noon till midnight were also notable during the pandemic (p = 0.028). YLL revealed differences by age and gender, indicating a higher YLL for females aged 30–34 during the pandemic.ConclusionThe decline in RTA fatalities during COVID-19 pandemic underscores the influence of pandemic-induced restrictions and reduced traffic. However, demographic shifts, increased accident severity due to risky behaviors and gender-specific impacts on YLL, stress the necessity for improved safety interventions amidst evolving dynamics.

Incidence and predictors of mortality among road traffic accident victims admitted to hospitals at Hawassa city, Ethiopia.

Globally, road traffic accidents are the eighth-leading cause of death for all age groups. The estimated number of road traffic deaths in low income countries was more than three times as high as in high-income countries. Africa had the highest rate of fatalities attributed to road traffic accidents. Ethiopia has the highest number of road traffic fatalities among Sub-Saharan African countries. The main objective of this study was to determine the incidence and predictors of mortality among road traffic victims admitted to hospitals in Hawassa City. A facility-based retrospective cohort study was conducted using secondary data from hospital records. A total of 398 road traffic accident victims admitted to selected hospitals in Hawassa city from January 2019 to December 2021 participated in the study. Data were analyzed using STATA version 14.1. The Cox regression model was used to determine the predictors of mortality. A hazard ratio with a 95% confidence interval and a cut-off value of P<0.05 was used to declare the risk and statistical significance, respectively. The incidence rate of mortality for road traffic accident victims was 7.34 per 10,000 person-hours. The predictors of mortality were the value of GCS at admission <8 (aHR = 5.86; 95% CI: 2.00-17.19), GCS at admission 9-12 (aHR = 3.27; 95% CI: 1.28-8.40), the value of SBP at admission ≤89mmHg (aHR = 4.41; 95% CI: 2.22-8.77), admission to the ICU (aHR = 3.89; 95% CI: 1.83-8.28) and complications (aHR = 5.48; 95% CI: 2.74-10.01). The incidence of mortality among road traffic victims admitted to hospitals in Hawassa city was high. Thus, thorough follow-up and intensive management should be given to victims with critical health conditions.

The Pattern of Motorcyclists' Death Due to Accidents and a Three-year Forecast in East Azerbaijan Province, Iran: A Time Series Study

Introduction: In low- and middle-income countries, a large proportion of road users include pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists, and nearly half of road traffic fatalities occur among motorcyclists. This study aimed to examine the pattern of motorcyclists' death due to accidents in East Azerbaijan, Iran between 2006 and 2021 and present a forecast. Methods: We used death data due to motorcycle accidents of Legal Medicine Department between 2006 and 2021. For time series analysis, the Box-Jenkins model was used and three stages of identification, estimation, and diagnosis were successively performed and repeated several times to achieve the best prediction model. The Box-cox transformation method was used to stabilize the variance, and the first-order seasonal differential method with a period of 12 was used to control the seasonality. Due to seasonal variations, the Seasonality Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model: SARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q)s was employed and the death trend was predicted for 36 months. The candidate models were compared based on Log-likelihood, AIC, and BIC indices. STATA 17 was used for data analysis. Results: About 18.6% of all accident deaths are attributed to motorcycle accidents. The death rate for all causes of accidents and motorcycle accidents were 23.13 and 4.30 per 100,000 population, respectively. Seven models were considered as candidates. The SARIMA (0, 0, 0) (1, 1, 1)12 model was selected as the best model due to better fit and used to predict the number and trend of motorcycle accident deaths. Motorcycle accident deaths are predicted to decrease gradually in the next 36 months, from June 2021 to May 2024, affected by seasonal changes. Conclusion: The trend of death due to motorcycle accidents from 2006 to 2021 in East Azerbaijan was declining, and it is predicted to decrease slightly in the next three years as well. As this reduction may be attributed to many factors, it is recommended to investigate effective factors in future studies.

Pattern of Head Injury in Fatal Road Traffic Accident: Retrospective Study

Road traffic Accident have been reported to be a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Due to increasing modernization, road traffic accidents have become exponentially more frequent and dangerous. Mortality rate from road traffic injuries accounts 29.2 per 100000 people5. This study was conducted in the Department of Forensic Medicine, Silchar Medical College, Silchar, from 1st November 2021 to 31st October 2022. The aim of the study is the pattern of head injuries in fatal road traffic accident. Out of the 981 autopsy cases were conducted during the above-mentioned period, a total of 200 cases were found deaths due to head injuries. Out of 200 cases, common age group involved was from 40-50 years, the deceased were more from rural areas. Maximum cases during winter season. Commonest injuries were scalp abrasion, linear fracture of skull and subdural haemorrhage. Head injury has become a common cause of death and disability among Road Traffic Accident cases. This further shows the need of strict implementations of traffic rules. Positive policy initiatives such as mandatory helmet legislation need reliable and consistent data to support ongoing monitoring and enforcement of such initiatives.

The impact of ride-hailing services on urban road traffic fatalities in China

Although many studies have discussed the social impact of ride-hailing services, there is no consensus on whether ride-hailing services aggravate or alleviate road traffic fatalities. In particular, no research has deeply studied the relationship between ride-hailing services and road traffic fatalities in the Chinese context. Based on the panel data of 115 cities from 2005 to 2018, this study uses the different entry times of Didi Express and Didi Hitch to design a natural experiment. A multi-period differences-in-differences model is used to analyze the impact of Didi Express and Didi Hitch on road traffic fatalities. The results show that the entry of Didi Express significantly increases road traffic fatalities, but its impact decreases year by year. The entry of Didi Hitch has no significant impact on road traffic fatalities. Further analysis shows that the ride-hailing regulation effectively alleviates the impact of Didi Express on road traffic fatalities. These findings reveal that the increased numbers of on-road vehicles, engagement of unqualified drivers, and use of noncompliant vehicles may contribute to road traffic fatalities associated with Didi Express. Therefore, systematically promoting the enforcement of ride-hailing regulation is essential to mitigate road traffic fatalities.

Comparative Characteristics of Mortality of Children Due to Road Traffic Injuries in the Kyrgyz Republic

High death rates due to road accidents are characteristic of most countries of the world and the problem is global. The United Nations General Assembly has adopted an ambitious goal to halve the number of road traffic fatalities and injuries worldwide by 2030. In the Kyrgyz Republic, the number of traffic accidents increased from 5868 in 2016 to 7041 cases in 2022. In the dynamics of road accidents in the regions of the republic, an increase trend in 2019-2020 was revealed, which was replaced by a decrease in 2022, with the exception of the city of Bishkek with a sharp increase of +70.2%. Regions with a high frequency of road accidents were Chui, Issyk-Kul regions and the cities of Bishkek and Osh. Starting from 2018, 2019 and 2021, with road accidents due to the fault of the driver, injuries to children increased, especially in 2021 in all regions of the republic. In 2022, injuries decreased, only in the Batken, Naryn and Chui regions there was an increase. By region, Batken, Talas, Jalal-Abad and Issyk-Kul regions prevail. The highest rates of increase in mortality of children in road accidents due to the fault of the driver were observed in 2019-2022. Regions with a high mortality rate of children in traffic accidents due to the fault of the driver include the Chui, Talas, Naryn and Issyk-Kul regions. It is necessary in road safety policy to ensure a holistic (systemic) approach to solving the problem of reducing road traffic injuries and mortality.

IJCM_49A: Mortality trends of road traffic accidents due to human errors in Chhattisgarh and India (2016-2022)

Background: Road safety continues to be a major developmental issue, a public health concern and a leading cause of death and injury affecting not only the victims and their family but also the economy as a whole in terms of untimely deaths, disabilities and loss of potential income. India ranks 2nd in the number of road accidents and 1st in mortality due to RTA in the world. Road accidents are multi-causal due to interplay of various factors. These can be broadly categorized into those relating to (a) Human error (b) Road condition/ environment (c) Vehicle condition. Human errors for RTA include non-compliance to traffic rules and not using helmets and seatbelts, resulting in mortalities which can be mitigated by proper education, adherence and implementation of traffic rules. Objective: To analyze the mortality trends due to RTA by human errors in Chhattisgarh and India 2016-2022 Methodology: The RTA mortality statistics were retrieved from the Road accidents in India report published annually by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways. A literature search was done in electronic databases like-PubMed, Google Scholar, other platforms using keywords- RTA mortality, Distracted driving Results: From 2016 to 2022, both Chhattisgarh and India experienced a steady rise in fatalities, peaking in 2022 due to overspeeding and helmet non-compliance. In 2019, India saw its peak in fatalities from alcohol-related driving, mobile use, and signal jumping, followed by a decline. Chhattisgarh experienced the highest signal jumping fatalities in 2017 and alcohol-relatedriving deaths in 2018 compared to other years Conclusion: The study reveals a decrease in road traffic accident fatalities caused by certain human errors post-2019, credited to the adoption of the Motor Vehicle Amendment Act 2019. Boosting public awareness and establishing robust surveillance measures are imperative in curbing fatalities caused by road traffic accidents (RTAs)

Application of a time series to analyse the evaluation of road traffic accidents in Slovakia

Road traffic accidents represent an important part of the road traffic system. In many cases, they may lead not only to damage to vehicles and property, but also serious injuries or even death of road traffic participants. The prevalence of road traffic accidents and the related fatality rates in a country is a significant indicator of the maturity of that country and its inhabitants. The purpose of this article was to review the prevalence of road traffic accidents and fatality rates in the Slovak Republic over the period from 2009 to 2022. The analysis was conducted by applying basic statistical methods and a time series analysis (exponential smoothing method – ETS). The ETS is a method used for forecasting a time series univariate. The focus of this method is on three time series components (error E, trend T and seasonal S), while defining how the individual components interact. The results of the analysis indicated a positive, i.e. a falling trend in road traffic accident rates, according to the numbers of persons killed/injured in road traffic accidents in Slovakia. Compared to 2009, in 2020 there was a decrease in the number of road traffic accidents by almost 54%. In 2022, the number of fatalities decreased by almost 30% compared to those in 2009. The modelling also involved a forecast of the number of persons killed/injured in road traffic accidents for a period of 5 years.

Disruptive, dangerous, and dirty: active travel measures as a ‘cause’ of car-related externalities

Automobility centred on private car use generates various externalities – or ‘antagonisms’ – that threaten its sustainability as a mobility regime. Through expanding the practice and spaces of driving, mass immobility can result. With increased car use, comes increased energy use, generating an ecological antagonism for this regime. Finally, greater car use has resulted in mass road traffic injuries and fatalities, which presents another threat to the growth and maintenance of this unique form of automobility. While these antagonisms present a risk, they have also been leveraged as a means to establish and secure the dominance of automobility. As part of a wider study exploring discourses of opposition to redistributive active travel measures in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown, Ireland, this paper illustrates how active travel measures that present a challenge to automobility are depicted as disruptive, dangerous and dirty. These measures, precisely designed to mitigate the antagonisms of mass car use, are construed instead as primary causes of these systemic externalities. This study thereby reveals how active travel spaces themselves – and spatial regulations that favour active travellers – can be unfavourably represented as a means of politically sustaining automobility.

GIS-Based Spatial Analysis Model for Assessing Impact and Cumulative Risk in Road Traffic Accidents via Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)—Case Study: Romania

On a global scale, traffic incidents are a leading cause of mortality and material damage. Romania exhibits the highest rate of road traffic fatalities both in the European Union and worldwide, requiring a comprehensive examination of its overall influence on a national level. The current study uses an extensive approach centering on a spatial analysis model based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Employing a series of spatial databases, this model delineates the geographical distribution and characteristics of road accidents to establish both their cumulative national impact and the identification of high-risk areas. The spatial database, containing traffic incident data, is constructed using geolocation techniques and integrated through network analysis to evaluate the impact in relation to distance. The AHP framework is applied in analyzing the impact across five key dimensions: accident severity, occurrence mode, prevailing weather conditions, traffic restrictions, and road markings. This multi-level AHP analysis not only identifies high-risk hotspots but also confirms the effectiveness of the proposed spatial model.

Advancing traffic safety through the safe system approach: A systematic review

The Safe System Approach (SSA) has emerged as a comprehensive framework for enhancing traffic safety through system-wide interventions. This systematic review, conducted following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, analyzes 82 relevant studies categorized based on the SSA pillars: safe road users, safe vehicles, safe speeds, safe roads, and post-crash care. The review provides insights into SSA's effectiveness in reducing road traffic fatalities and injuries, exploring implementation challenges and opportunities, including policy initiatives, institutional frameworks, and stakeholder collaborations. The findings highlight the potential for SSA to create a more forgiving and resilient transportation system, offering valuable guidance for policy decisions, future research, and interventions aimed at promoting safer road environments. SSA's comprehensive strategy for Safe Road Users encompasses considerations of road system design, behavior modification, and tailored measures for vulnerable users, showcasing its versatility in addressing diverse challenges. In the realm of Safe Vehicles, SSA actively involves manufacturers in a cycle of continuous improvement, rigorous testing, and collaborative efforts to establish new safety regulations. The emphasis on managing Safe Speeds, aligning with human parameters, and involving communities reflects SSA's adaptable nature and provides insights for establishing context-specific speed limits. SSA contributes significantly to Safe Roads through its implementation of innovative countermeasures, forgiving road designs, and the integration of emerging disciplines, resulting in a notable reduction in fatalities and injuries. In the domain of Post-Crash Care, SSA's integrated perspective fosters collaboration among emergency services, medical professionals, and the justice system. It addresses challenges through standardized approaches and information sharing, ensuring a comprehensive and unified approach to road safety. This review contributes to the ongoing efforts to prioritize safety and transform the transportation landscape on a global scale.

Road Users in Road Traffic Fatalities in South Africa: Challenges and Effective Responses

Approximately 1.3 million people die each year as a result of road traffic crashes (World Health Organization, 2022). Furthermore, road traffic injuries are the leading cause of death for children and young adults aged 5-29 years, with more than half of all road traffic deaths occurring among vulnerable road users: pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists. Young people pose a significant risk on the road globally, including in South Africa, where negligent driving is prevalent, putting other road users at risk of fatalities. Road traffic fatalities are a pressing issue for road traffic authorities in South Africa, with increasing numbers of fatalities. The inability of young people to adhere to road rules contributes to this high rate of road traffic fatalities. This article focuses on the challenges associated with young road users in road traffic fatalities and employs a qualitative methodology drawing on a wide range of secondary sources. It further utilizes findings from around the world to address these challenges. The research identifies key steps to prevent road traffic fatalities among young people, including strengthening law enforcement, conducting road safety awareness campaigns, combating corruption at driving license testing centers, and ensuring licenses are awarded based on competency rather than corrupt practices.

The value of Association Rule Analysis in understanding serious and fatal road traffic crashes - a case study of the N4 toll road between 2015 and 2019

In spite of the fact that the road traffic crash fatality rate in South Africa is significantly higher than the global average, the characteristics and causes of road traffic crashes are still not well understood. Without a clear understanding of the characteristics and causes, intelligence-led countermeasures to reduce crashes cannot be developed or applied. The analysis of local South African road crash data is of particular importance in identifying the underlying problems responsible for the high crash rates across the country. While descriptive analyses can be used to present a snapshot of the crash problem, they are largely inadequate when it comes to throwing light on the underlying patterns and relationships between the contributing factors and causes of the crashes themselves. This paper presents a study of the use of Association Rule Analysis (ARA) on data related to crashes on the N4 between Pretoria and the Mozambican border, between 2015 and 2019, to see what added value ARA may offer to standard descriptive analyses of crash data. Apriori Association Rule algorithm was employed on the dataset to identify what contributory factors were not initially evident in the occurrence of serious and fatal crashes. ARA revealed that pedestrians, negligent driving, overtaking and single-vehicle crashes are common factors likely to be present in a serious crash. However, this study found that descriptive statistical analysis and ARA methods are not mutually exclusive, but rather complementary. Where descriptive statistical analysis focuses on summarising and describing data, ARA focuses on identifying relationships and patterns within the data.

Towards ‘Vision-Zero’ in Road Traffic Fatalities: The Need for Reasonable Degrees of Automation to Complement Human Efforts in Driving Operation

Human factors play a huge role in road traffic safety. Research has found that a huge proportion of traffic crashes occur due to some form of human error. Improving road user behavior has been the major strategy that has been emphasized for improving road traffic safety. Meanwhile, despite the training efforts, and testing for drivers, the global status of road traffic safety is alarming. This research highlights the seriousness of human factors on road traffic safety and provides actionable strategies to greatly reduce the negative impact of human factors on road traffic safety. Motor vehicle safety data that were made available online by the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics were reviewed to evaluate the severity of traffic collisions. To evaluate the extent of human factors in motor vehicle traffic fatalities, data for Canadian motor vehicle traffic collision statistics were reviewed. The study confirms that human factors (such as driver distraction, fatigue, driving under the influence of drugs and alcohol etc.) play a huge role in road traffic fatalities. The need for a reasonable degree of automation to help reduce the impacts of human factors on road safety and recommendations aimed at providing widespread support for a reasonable degree of automation systems in driving tasks are presented. Actionable strategies that can be implemented by policymakers to reduce global road traffic fatalities are also presented.

Trends in fatalities from road traffic injuries and associated factors of patients admitted to the emergency department of St. Luke Hospital, South West Shewa Zone, Ethiopia

IntroductionRoad traffic injuries are a major global public health problem. They are fatal or non-fatal injuries resulting from a road traffic accident involving at least one moving vehicle on a path or road open to public traffic. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the trends in fatalities from road traffic injuries and the associated factors of patients admitted to the emergency department of St. Luke Hospital.MethodsAn institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted from July 10 to 30, 2019. The study on the trends in road traffic injuries was conducted monthly bases from January 1 to December 31, 2018. A total of 364 road traffic–injured victim records were included. A simple random sampling technique was used for the record selection. A structured data abstraction format was used to gather the required data. Binary logistic regression and multivariate logistic regression were used to determine the association between the outcome and explanatory variables. Adjusted odds ratios (AORs) at 95% confidence intervals were used to report independent variables.Results and conclusionsThe average annual fatalities from road traffic injuries was 8.34% deaths/month. The magnitude of road traffic injury fatalities was 8.79%. Of all victims who visited the hospital, 75.5% were male. The median age of the victims was 26 (51.6%), with a range from 6 to 70. The identified risk factors for road traffic injury fatalities were a lack of ambulance for transportation to the hospital after the accident (AOR = 7.093, 95% CI [1.950, 25.793], p = 0.003) and head injury (AOR = 2.515, 95% CI [1.075, 5.885], p = 0.034). Road traffic injury fatalities are an important public health problem that needs special attention. A shortage of ambulance service for transportation and injury sites related to head injury were associated factors. So it is important to establish and strengthen advanced prehospital care and an effective ambulance system for transporting victims with road traffic injuries.

Slime mould algorithm based approaches to solve traffic insurance gross premiums of Türkiye

Highway traffic injuries are a major public health problem for all nations. As it is seen in the whole world, also in Türkiye, road traffic crashes are among the ones that cause death. As a result, road traffic congestion and fatalities represent a significant cost to national economies. The compulsory motor vehicle liability insurance is one of the most common types of insurance, both because it is compulsory and because the number of motor vehicles in Türkiye is very high. Therefore, estimation of the traffic insurance gross premiums (TIGP) problem is being an important problem for Türkiye as well as the other countries. In this study, in order to make some proper TIGP estimations for Türkiye, three different SMA methods such as SMA-Linear, SMA-Quadratic and SMA-Exponential are proposed. In the experiments, the population, number of vehicles and number of accidents and the observed TIGP historical data records of Türkiye taken from Turkish statistical institute (TUIK) and Turkish insurance association (TSB) for the years (2009-2020) have been used. First, the models are constructed using the SMA-Linear, SMA-Quadratic and SMA-Exponential methods, and then the methods based on the SMA-Linear, SMA-Quadratic and SMA-Exponential models are used to estimate the TIGP values for the years (2009-2020). According to the experimental results, SMA-Quadratic methods is produced better or comparable performance on the problem dealt with this study in terms of solution quality and robustness.

The Relationship Between the Atmospheric Environment and Road Traffic Fatalities - Shandong Province, China, 2012-2021.

This study aims to analyze the potential impact of the meteorological environment and air pollutants on road traffic fatalities. Road traffic fatality data in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2021 were obtained from the Population Death Information Registration Management System. Meteorological and air pollutant data for the same period were collected from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Ecological Environment Monitoring Center of Shandong Province, China. Pearson's correlation and ridge regression were used to analyze the impact of the meteorological environment and air pollutants on road traffic fatalities. From 2012 to 2021, there were 163,863 road traffic fatality cases. The results of the ridge regression analysis showed that the daily average temperature was negatively correlated with total fatalities and passengers and positively correlated with pedestrians, nonmotorized drivers, and motorized drivers. The daily minimum temperature was negatively correlated with total fatalities and positively correlated with motorized drivers. The daily maximum temperature was positively correlated with both pedestrian and nonmotorized drivers. The daily accumulated precipitation was negatively correlated with pedestrians. Sunshine duration was positively correlated with both nonmotorized and motorized drivers. Inhalable particulate matter (PM10) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) were positively correlated with total fatalities, pedestrians, and nonmotorized drivers. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) was positively correlated with total fatalities but negatively correlated with nonmotorized drivers, passengers, and motorized drivers. Atmospheric factors associated with the occurrence of road traffic fatalities include air temperature, daily accumulated precipitation, sunshine duration, and air pollutants such as PM10, NO2, and SO2.