Application of a time series to analyse the evaluation of road traffic accidents in Slovakia

Abstract

Road traffic accidents represent an important part of the road traffic system. In many cases, they may lead not only to damage to vehicles and property, but also serious injuries or even death of road traffic participants. The prevalence of road traffic accidents and the related fatality rates in a country is a significant indicator of the maturity of that country and its inhabitants. The purpose of this article was to review the prevalence of road traffic accidents and fatality rates in the Slovak Republic over the period from 2009 to 2022. The analysis was conducted by applying basic statistical methods and a time series analysis (exponential smoothing method – ETS). The ETS is a method used for forecasting a time series univariate. The focus of this method is on three time series components (error E, trend T and seasonal S), while defining how the individual components interact. The results of the analysis indicated a positive, i.e. a falling trend in road traffic accident rates, according to the numbers of persons killed/injured in road traffic accidents in Slovakia. Compared to 2009, in 2020 there was a decrease in the number of road traffic accidents by almost 54%. In 2022, the number of fatalities decreased by almost 30% compared to those in 2009. The modelling also involved a forecast of the number of persons killed/injured in road traffic accidents for a period of 5 years.