Rm CO Research Articles

Short- and Mid-Term Forecasting of Baseload Electricity Prices in the U.K.: The Impact of Intra-Day Price Relationships and Market Fundamentals

In this paper we investigate whether considering the fine structure of half-hourly electricity prices, the market closing prices of fundamentals (natural gas, coal and ${\rm CO}_{2}$ ) and the system-wide demand can lead to significantly more accurate short- and mid-term forecasts of APX U.K. baseload prices. We evaluate the predictive accuracy of a number of univariate and multivariate time series models over a three-year out-of-sample forecasting period and compare it against that of a benchmark autoregressive model. We find that in the short-term, up to a few business days ahead, a disaggregated model which independently predicts the intra-day prices and then takes their average to yield baseload price forecasts is the best performer. However, in the mid-term, factor models which explore the correlation structure of intra-day prices lead to significantly (as measured by the Diebold-Mariano test) better baseload price forecasts. At the same time, we observe that the inclusion of fundamental variables—especially natural gas prices (in the short-term) and coal prices (in the mid-term)—provides significant gains. The ${\rm CO}_{2}$ prices, on the other hand, generally do not improve the price forecasts at all, at least in the time period considered in this study (April 2009–December 2013).

An ALMA view of the interstellar medium of thez= 4.77 lensed starburst SPT-S J213242-5802.9

We present ALMA detections of the [NII] 205$\mu$m and CO(12-11) emission lines, and the tentative detection of [CI] $^3$P$_1$ - $^3$P$_0$ for the strongly lensed ($\mu$=5.7$\pm$0.5) dusty, star-forming galaxy SPT-S J213242-5802.9 (hereafter SPT2132-58) at z=4.77. The [NII] and CO(12-11) lines are detected at 11.5 and 8.5 $\sigma$ level, respectively, by our band-6 observations. The [CI] line is detected at 3.2 $\sigma$ after a re-analysis of existing band-3 data. The [CI] luminosity implies a gas mass of 3.8$\pm$1.2$\times$10$^{10}$ M$_\odot$, and consequently a very short depletion timescale of 34$\pm$13 Myr and a CO-luminosity-to-gas-mass conversion factor $\alpha_{\rm CO}$ of 1.0$\pm$0.3 M$_\odot$ (K km s$^{-1}$ pc$^{2}$)$^{-1}$. SPT2132-58 is an extreme starburst with an intrinsic star formation rate of 1100$\pm$200 M$_\odot$/yr. We find a [CII]/[NII] ratio of 26$\pm$7, which is the highest reported at z$>$4. This suggests that SPT2132-58 hosts an evolved interstellar medium (0.5 Z$_\odot$<Z<1.5 Z$_\odot$), which may be dominated by photodissociation regions. The CO(2-1) and CO(5-4) transitions have lower CO-to-far-infrared ratios than local and high-redshift samples, while CO(12-11) is similar to these samples, suggesting the presence of an additional very excited component or an AGN.

CO(J = 3–2) on-the-fly mapping of the nearby spiral galaxies NGC 628 and NGC 7793: Spatially resolved CO(J = 3–2) star-formation law

Abstract We present the results of CO(J = 3–2) on-the-fly mappings of two nearby non-barred spiral galaxies, NGC 628 and NGC 7793, with the Atacama Submillimeter Telescope Experiment at an effective angular resolution of 25″. We successfully obtained global distributions of CO(J = 3–2) emission over the entire disks at a sub-kpc resolution for both galaxies. We examined the spatially resolved (sub-kpc) relationship between CO(J = 3–2) luminosities ($L^{\prime }_{\rm CO(3-2)}$) and infrared (IR) luminosities (LIR) for NGC 628, NGC 7793, and M 83, and compared it with global luminosities of a JCMT (James Clerk Maxwell Telescope) Nearby Galaxy Legacy Survey sample. We found a striking linear $L^{\prime }_{\rm CO(3-2)}$–LIR correlation over the four orders of magnitude, and the correlation is consistent even with that for ultraluminous IR galaxies and submillimeter-selected galaxies. In addition, we examined the spatially resolved relationship between CO(J = 3–2) intensities (ICO(3–2)) and extinction-corrected star formation rates (SFRs) for NGC 628, NGC 7793, and M 83, and compared it with that for Giant Molecular Clouds in M 33 and 14 nearby galaxy centers. We found a linear ICO(3–2)–SFR correlation with ∼1 dex scatter. We conclude that the CO(J = 3–2) star-formation law (i.e., linear $L^{\prime }_{\rm CO(3-2)}$–LIR and ICO(3–2)–SFR correlations) is universally applicable to various types and spatial scales of galaxies; from spatially resolved nearby galaxy disks to distant IR-luminous galaxies, within ∼1 dex scatter.

MODELING THE MOLECULAR GAS IN NGC 6240

We present the first observations of H$^{13}$CN$(1-0)$, H$^{13}$CO$^+(1-0)$ and SiO$(2-1)$ in NGC\,6240, obtained with the IRAM PdBI. Combining a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) code with Large Velocity Gradient (LVG) modelling, and with additional data from the literature, we simultaneously fit three gas phases and six molecular species to constrain the physical condition of the molecular gas, including mass$-$luminosity conversion factors. We find $\sim10^{10}M_\odot$ of dense molecular gas in cold, dense clouds ($T_{\rm k}\sim10$\,K, $n_{{\rm H}_2}\sim10^6$\,cm$^{-3}$) with a volume filling factor $<0.002$, embedded in a shock heated molecular medium ($T_{\rm k}\sim2000$\,K, $n_{{\rm H}_2}\sim10^{3.6}$\,cm$^{-3}$), both surrounded by an extended diffuse phase ($T_{\rm k}\sim200$\,K, $n_{{\rm H}_2}\sim10^{2.5}$\,cm$^{-3}$). We derive a global $\alpha_{\rm CO}=1.5^{7.1}_{1.1}$ with gas masses $\log_{10}\left(M / [M_\odot]\right)=10.1_{10.0}^{10.8}$, dominated by the dense gas. We also find $\alpha_{\rm HCN} = 32^{89}_{13}$, which traces the cold, dense gas. The [$^{12}$C]/[$^{13}$C] ratio is only slightly elevated ($98^{230}_{65}$), contrary to the very high [CO]/[$^{13}$CO] ratio (300-500) reported in the literature. However, we find very high [HCN]/[H$^{13}$CN] and [HCO$^+$]/[H$^{13}$CO$^+$] abundance ratios $(300^{500}_{200})$ which we attribute to isotope fractionation in the cold, dense clouds.

ALMA probes the molecular gas reservoirs in the changing-look Seyfert galaxy Mrk 590

We investigate if the active galactic nucleus (AGN) of Mrk 590, whose supermassive black hole was until recently highly accreting, is turning off due to a lack of central gas to fuel it. We analyse new sub-arcsecond resolution ALMA maps of the $^{12}$CO(3-2) line and 344 GHz continuum emission in Mrk 590. We detect no $^{12}$CO(3-2) emission in the inner 150 pc, constraining the central molecular gas mass to $M({\rm H_2}) \lesssim 1.6 \times 10^5\, {M_{\odot}}$, no more than a typical giant molecular gas cloud, for a CO luminosity to gas mass conversion factor of $\alpha_{\rm CO}\sim 0.8\,{M_{\odot}\,\rm (K \,km\,s^{-1}\,pc^{2}})^{-1}$. However, there is still potentially enough gas to fuel the black hole for another $2.6 \times 10^5$ years assuming Eddington-limited accretion. We therefore cannot rule out that the AGN may just be experiencing a temporary feeding break, and may turn on again in the near future. We discover a ring-like structure at a radius of $\sim 1$ kpc, where a gas clump exhibiting disturbed kinematics and located just $\sim 200$ pc west of the AGN, may be refueling the centre. Mrk 590 does not have significantly less gas than other nearby AGN host galaxies at kpc scales, confirming that gas reservoirs at these scales provide no direct indication of on-going AGN activity and accretion rates. Continuum emission detected in the central 150 pc likely originates from warm AGN-heated dust, although contributions from synchrotron and free-free emission cannot be ruled out.

MOLECULAR GAS AND STAR FORMATION IN THE CARTWHEEL

Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) 12CO(J=1-0) observations are used to study the cold molecular ISM of the Cartwheel ring galaxy and its relation to HI and massive star formation (SF). CO moment maps find $(2.69\pm0.05)\times10^{9}$ M$_{\odot}$ of H$_2$ associated with the inner ring (72%) and nucleus (28%) for a Galactic I(CO)-to-N(H2) conversion factor ($\alpha_{\rm CO}$). The spokes and disk are not detected. Analysis of the inner ring's CO kinematics show it to be expanding ($V_{\rm exp}=68.9\pm4.9$ km s$^{-1}$) implying an $\approx70$ Myr age. Stack averaging reveals CO emission in the starburst outer ring for the first time, but only where HI surface density ($\Sigma_{\rm HI}$) is high, representing $M_{\rm H_2}=(7.5\pm0.8)\times10^{8}$ M$_{\odot}$ for a metallicity appropriate $\alpha_{\rm CO}$, giving small $\Sigma_{\rm H_2}$ ($3.7$ M$_{\odot}$ pc$^{-2}$), molecular fraction ($f_{\rm mol}=0.10$), and H$_2$ depletion timescales ($\tau_{\rm mol} \approx50-600$ Myr). Elsewhere in the outer ring $\Sigma_{\rm H_2}\lesssim 2$ M$_{\odot}$ pc$^{-2}$, $f_{\rm mol}\lesssim 0.1$ and $\tau_{\rm mol}\lesssim 140-540$ Myr (all $3\sigma$). The inner ring and nucleus are H$_2$-dominated and are consistent with local spiral SF laws. $\Sigma_{\rm SFR}$ in the outer ring appears independent of $\Sigma_{\rm H_2}$, $\Sigma_{\rm HI}$ or $\Sigma_{\rm HI+H_2}$. The ISM's long confinement in the robustly star forming rings of the Cartwheel and AM0644-741 may result in either a large diffuse H$_2$ component or an abundance of CO-faint low column density molecular clouds. The H$_2$ content of evolved starburst rings may therefore be substantially larger. Due to its lower $\Sigma_{\rm SFR}$ and age the Cartwheel's inner ring has yet to reach this state. Alternately, the outer ring may trigger efficient SF in an HI-dominated ISM.

Modeling the control of atmospheric carbon dioxide through reforestation: effect of time delay

Carbon dioxide (\({\rm CO}_2\)) is the prime greenhouse gas responsible for the threat of global warming. Forest biomass plays an important role in sequestration of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere but the global forest biomass is declining with an alarming rate due to human activities. In this scenario, reforestation is crucial to reduce the atmospheric burden of \(\hbox {CO}_2\). In this paper, we propose a nonlinear mathematical model to study the effect of reforestation as well as the delay involved in between the measurement of forest data and implementation of reforestation efforts on the control of atmospheric concentration of \(\hbox {CO}_2\). Model analysis shows that the atmospheric concentration of \(\hbox {CO}_2\) decreases due to reforestation but a longer delay in between measurement of forest biomass and implementation of reforestation efforts has destabilizing effect on the dynamics of the system. The critical value of this time delay is found analytically. The Hopf-bifurcation analysis is performed by taking time delay as bifurcation parameter. The stability and direction of bifurcating periodic solutions arising through Hopf-bifurcations are also discussed.

Early Science with the Large Millimeter Telescope: observations of dust continuum and CO emission lines of cluster-lensed submillimetre galaxies atz=2.0–4.7

We present Early Science observations with the Large Millimeter Telescope, AzTEC 1.1 mm continuum images and wide bandwidth spectra (73–111 GHz) acquired with the Redshift Search Receiver, towards four bright lensed submillimetre galaxies identified through the Herschel Lensing Survey-snapshot and the Submillimetre Common-User Bolometer Array-2 Cluster Snapshot Survey. This pilot project studies the star formation history and the physical properties of the molecular gas and dust content of the highest redshift galaxies identified through the benefits of gravitational magnification. We robustly detect dust continuum emission for the full sample and CO emission lines for three of the targets. We find that one source shows spectroscopic multiplicity and is a blend of three galaxies at different redshifts (z = 2.040, 3.252, and 4.680), reminiscent of previous high-resolution imaging follow-up of unlensed submillimetre galaxies, but with a completely different search method, that confirm recent theoretical predictions of physically unassociated blended galaxies. Identifying the detected lines as 12CO (Jup = 2–5) we derive spectroscopic redshifts, molecular gas masses, and dust masses from the continuum emission. The mean H2 gas mass of the full sample is (2.0 ± 0.2) × 1011 M⊙/μ, and the mean dust mass is (2.0 ± 0.2) × 109 M⊙/μ, where μ ≈ 2–5 is the expected lens amplification. Using these independent estimations we infer a gas-to-dust ratio of δGDR ≈ 55–75, in agreement with other measurements of submillimetre galaxies. Our magnified high-luminosity galaxies fall on the same locus as other high-redshift submillimetre galaxies, extending the |$L^{\prime }_{\rm CO}$|–LFIR correlation observed for local luminous and ultraluminous infrared galaxies to higher far-infrared and CO luminosities.

What is the Cost of Negative Bidding by Wind? A Unit Commitment Analysis of Cost and Emissions

We use a unit commitment (UC) model to quantify the operational impacts of subsidizing wind generation when energy prices are negative. Such prices occur increasingly often in U.S. and European Union (EU) markets. Subsidies such as production tax credits, feed-in tariffs, and renewable energy credits motivate renewable generators to submit negative price offers; this lessened flexibility increases system operation and management costs and, in some cases, $\hbox{CO}_{2}$ emissions when energy prices are negative. Our simulations of large negative bids can also be interpreted as representing EU policies of granting wind absolute dispatch priority. Applications to four hypothetical systems with high wind penetration and distinct generation mixes quantify the UC and dispatch effects of negative bids. Larger negative bids lead to less wind spillage (reducing the 2.8% average curtailment under $0 bids to 1.0%), more conventional plant startups, higher system costs, and, in many cases, higher total ${\rm CO}_{2}$ emissions (by up to 2%). In some systems, wind power's effective incremental emissions are as high as coal's. This impact depends strongly on generation mix, carbon price, and the size of the negative bids. In general, there can be significant economic and, often, environmental benefits to reforming renewable support policies to encourage flexibility in operations.

HerschelSPIRE-FTS observations of RCW 120

The expansion of Galactic HII regions can trigger the formation of a new generation of stars. However, little is know about the physical conditions that prevail in these regions. We study the physical conditions that prevail in specific zones towards expanding HII regions that trace representative media such as the photodissociation region, the ionized region, and condensations with and without ongoing star formation. We use the SPIRE Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) on board $Herschel$ to observe the HII region RCW 120. Continuum and lines are observed in the $190-670\,\mu$m range. Line intensities and line ratios are obtained and used as physical diagnostics of the gas. We used the Meudon PDR code and the RADEX code to derive the gas density and the radiation field at nine distinct positions including the PDR surface and regions with and without star-formation activity. For the different regions we detect the atomic lines [NII] at $205\,\mu$m and [CI] at $370$ and $609\,\mu$m, the $^{12}{\rm CO}$ ladder between the $J=4$ and $J=13$ levels and the $^{13}{\rm CO}$ ladder between the $J=5$ and $J=14$ levels, as well as CH$ ^{+} $ in absorption. We find gas temperatures in the range $45-250\,$K for densities of $10^4-10^6\,{\rm cm}^{-3}$, and a high column density on the order of $N_{{\rm H}}\sim10^{22}\,{\rm cm}^{-2}$ that is in agreement with dust analysis. The ubiquitousness of the atomic and CH$ ^{+} $ emission suggests the presence of a low-density PDR throughout RCW 120. High-excitation lines of CO indicate the presence of irradiated dense structures or small dense clumps containing young stellar objects, while we also find a less dense medium ($N_{{\rm H}}\sim10^{20}\,{\rm cm}^{-2}$) with high temperatures ($80-200\,$K).

PROSPECTS FOR DETECTING C II EMISSION DURING THE EPOCH OF REIONIZATION

We produce simulations of emission of the atomic CII line in large sky fields in order to determine the current prospects for mapping this line during the high redshift Epoch of Reionization. We estimate the CII line intensity, redshift evolution and spatial fluctuations using observational relations between CII emission and the SFR in a galaxy for the frequency range of 200 GHz to 300 GHz. We obtained a frequency averaged intensity of CII emission of ${\rm I_{\rm CII}=(4 \pm 2)\times10^{2}\, Jy\, \rm sr^{-1}}$ in the redshift range $z\, \sim\, 5.3\, -\, 8.5$. Observations of CII emission in this frequency range will suffer contamination from emission lines at lower redshifts, in particular from the CO rotation lines. For the relevant frequency range we estimated the CO contamination (originated in emission from galaxies at $z\, <\, 2.5$), using simulations, to be ${\rm I_{\rm CO} \approx 10^{3}\, Jy \, sr^{-1}}$ and independently confirmed the result based in observational relations. We generated maps as a function of angle and frequency using detailed simulations of the CII and CO emission across several redshifts in order to properly take into account the observational pipeline and light cone effects. In order to reduce the foreground contamination we found that we should mask galaxies below redshifts $\sim 2.5$ with a CO flux in one of the CO(J:2-1) to CO(J:6-5) lines higher than ${\rm 5\times 10^{-22}\, W\ m^{-2}}$ or a AB magnitude lower than ${\rm m_{\rm K}\, =\, 22}$. We estimate that the additional continuum contamination is of the order of ${\rm 10^{5}\, Jy\, sr^{-1}}$. It is also considered the possibility of cross correlating foreground lines with galaxies in order to probe the intensity of the foregrounds.

A DIRECT CONSTRAINT ON THE GAS CONTENT OF A MASSIVE, PASSIVELY EVOLVING ELLIPTICAL GALAXY AT z = 1.43

Gas and dust in star-forming galaxies at the peak epoch of galaxy assembly are presently the topic of intense study, but little is known about the interstellar medium (ISM) of distant, passively evolving galaxies. We report on a deep 3 mm-band search with IRAM/PdBI for molecular (H$_2$) gas in a massive ($M_{\star}{\sim}6{\times}10^{11}M_{\odot}$) elliptical galaxy at z=1.4277, the first observation of this kind ever attempted. We place a 3$\sigma$ upper limit of 0.32 Jy km/s on the flux of the CO($J$=2$\rightarrow$1) line or $L'_{\rm CO}$$<$8.8$\times$10$^{9}$ K km/s pc$^2$, assuming a disk-like CO-morphology and a circular velocity scaling with the stellar velocity dispersion as in local early-type galaxies (ETGs). This translates to an H$_2$ mass of $<$3.9$\times$10$^{10}$($\alpha_{\rm CO}$/4.4)$M_{\odot}$ or a gas fraction of $\lesssim$6% assuming a Salpeter initial mass function (IMF) and an ISM dominated by H$_2$, as observed in many local, high-mass ellipticals. This low value approaches that of local ETGs, suggesting that the low star formation activity in massive, high-z passive galaxies reflects a true dearth of gas and a lesser role for inhibitive mechanisms like morphological quenching.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE DUST AND GAS-PHASE CO ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA MOLECULAR CLOUD

A deep, wide-field, near-infrared imaging survey was used to construct an extinction map of the southeastern part of the California Molecular Cloud (CMC) with $\sim$ 0.5 arc min resolution. The same region was also surveyed in the $^{12}$CO(2-1), $^{13}$CO(2-1), C$^{18}$O(2-1) emission lines at the same angular resolution. Strong spatial variations in the abundances of $^{13}$CO and C$^{18}$O were found to be correlated with variations in gas temperature, consistent with temperature dependent CO depletion/desorption on dust grains. The $^{13}$CO to C$^{18}$O abundance ratio was found to increase with decreasing extinction, suggesting selective photodissociation of C$^{18}$O by the ambient UV radiation field. The cloud averaged X-factor is found to be $<$X$_{\rm CO}$$>$ $=$ 2.53 $\times$ 10$^{20}$ ${\rm cm}^{-2}~({\rm K~km~s}^{-1})^{-1}$, somewhat higher than the Milky Way average. On sub-parsec scales we find no single empirical value of the X-factor that can characterize the molecular gas in cold (T$_{\rm k}$ $\lesssim$ 15 K) regions, with X$_{\rm CO}$ $\propto$ A$_{\rm V}$$^{0.74}$ for A$_{\rm V}$ $\gtrsim$ 3 magnitudes. However in regions containing relatively hot (T$_{\rm ex}$ $\gtrsim$ 25 K) gas we find a clear correlation between W($^{12}$CO) and A$_{\rm V}$ over a large (3 $\lesssim$ A$_{\rm V}$ $\lesssim$ 25 mag) extinction range. This suggests a constant X$_{\rm CO}$ $=$ 1.5 $\times$ 10$^{20}$ ${\rm cm}^{-2}~({\rm K~km~s}^{-1})^{-1}$ for the hot gas, a lower value than either the average for the CMC or Milky Way. We find a correlation between X$_{\rm CO}$ and T$_{\rm ex}$ with X$_{\rm CO}$ $\propto$ T$_{\rm ex}$$^{-0.7}$ suggesting that the global X-factor of a cloud may depend on the relative amounts of hot gas within it.

Evidence of boosted 13CO/12CO ratio in early-type galaxies in dense environments

We present observations of $^{13}$CO(1-0) in 17 Combined Array for Research in Millimeter Astronomy (CARMA) Atlas3D early-type galaxies (ETGs), obtained simultaneously with $^{12}$CO(1-0) observations. The $^{13}$CO in six ETGs is sufficiently bright to create images. In these 6 sources, we do not detect any significant radial gradient in the $^{13}$CO/$^{12}$CO ratio between the nucleus and the outlying molecular gas. Using the $^{12}$CO channel maps as 3D masks to stack the $^{13}$CO emission, we are able to detect 15/17 galaxies to $>3\sigma$ (and 12/17 to at least 5$\sigma$) significance in a spatially integrated manner. Overall, ETGs show a wide distribution of $^{13}$CO/$^{12}$CO ratios, but Virgo cluster and group galaxies preferentially show a $^{13}$CO/$^{12}$CO ratio about 2 times larger than field galaxies, although this could also be due to a mass dependence, or the CO spatial extent ($R_{\rm CO}/R_{\rm e}$). ETGs whose gas has a morphologically-settled appearance also show boosted $^{13}$CO/$^{12}$CO ratios. We hypothesize that this variation could be caused by (i) the extra enrichment of gas from molecular reprocessing occurring in low-mass stars (boosting the abundance of $^{13}$C to $^{12}$C in the absence of external gas accretion), (ii) much higher pressure being exerted on the midplane gas (by the intracluster medium) in the cluster environment than in isolated galaxies, or (iii) all but the densest molecular gas clumps being stripped as the galaxies fall into the cluster. Further observations of $^{13}$CO in dense environments, particularly of spirals, as well as studies of other isotopologues, should be able to distinguish between these hypotheses.

The relationship between CO emission and visual extinction traced by dust emission in the Magellanic Clouds

To test the theoretical understanding that finding bright CO emission depends primarily on dust shielding, we investigate the relationship between CO emission ($I_{\rm CO}$) and the amount of dust (estimated from IR emission and expressed as "$A_V$") across the Large Magellanic Cloud, the Small Magellanic Cloud, and the Milky Way. We show that at our common resolution of 10 pc scales, $I_{\rm CO}$ given a fixed line-of-sight $A_V$ is similar across all three systems despite the difference in metallicity. We find some evidence for a secondary dependence of $I_{\rm CO}$ on radiation field; in the LMC, $I_{\rm CO}$ at a given $A_V$ is smaller in regions of high $T_{\rm dust}$, perhaps because of an increased photodissociating radiation field. We suggest a simple but useful picture in which the CO-to-H$_2$ conversion factor (\xco) depends on two separable factors: (1) the distribution of gas column densities, which maps to an extinction distribution via a dust-to-gas ratio; and (2) the dependence of $I_{\rm CO}$ on $A_V$. Assuming that the probability distribution function (PDF) of local Milky Way clouds is universal, this approach predicts a dependence of \xco\ on $Z$ between $Z^{-1}$ and $Z^{-2}$ above about a third solar metallicity. Below this metallicity, CO emerges from only the high column density parts of the cloud and so depends very sensitively on the adopted PDF and the H$_2$/{\sc Hi} prescription. The PDF of low metallicity clouds is thus of considerable interest and the uncertainty associated with even an ideal prescription for \xco\ at very low metallicity will be large.

MEASURING STAR FORMATION RATES AND FAR-INFRARED COLORS OF HIGH-REDSHIFT GALAXIES USING THE CO(7–6) AND [N II] 205 μ m LINES

To better characterize the global star formation (SF) activity in a galaxy, one needs to know not only the star formation rate (SFR) but also the rest-frame, far-infrared (FIR) color (e.g., the 60-to-100 $\mu$m color, $C(60/100)$] of the dust emission. The latter probes the average intensity of the dust heating radiation field and scales statistically with the effective SFR surface density in star-forming galaxies including (ultra-)luminous infrared galaxies [(U)LIRGs]. To this end, we exploit here a new spectroscopic approach involving only two emission lines: CO\,(7$-$6) at 372 $\mu$m and [NII] at 205 $\mu$m. For local (U)LIRGs, the ratios of the CO (7$-$6) luminosity ($L_{\rm CO\,(7-6)}$) to the total infrared luminosity ($L_{\rm IR}$; 8$-$1000 $\mu$m) are fairly tightly distributed (to within $\sim$0.12 dex) and show little dependence on $C(60/100)$. This makes $L_{\rm CO\,(7-6)}$ a good SFR tracer, which is less contaminated by active galactic nuclei (AGN) than $L_{\rm IR}$ and may also be much less sensitive to metallicity than $L_{\rm CO\,(1-0)}$. Furthermore, the logarithmic [NII] 205 $\mu$m to CO (7$-$6) luminosity ratio is fairly steeply (at a slope of $\sim$$-1.4$) correlated with $C(60/100)$, with a modest scatter ($\sim$0.23 dex). This makes it a useful estimator on $C(60/100)$ with an implied uncertainty of $\sim$0.15 [or $\lesssim$4 K in the dust temperature ($T_{\rm dust}$) in the case of a graybody emission with $T_{\rm dust} \gtrsim 30$ K and a dust emissivity index $\beta \ge 1$]. Our locally calibrated SFR and $C(60/100)$ estimators are shown to be consistent with the published data of (U)LIRGs of $z$ up to $\sim$6.5.

Stochastically Optimized, Carbon-Reducing Dispatch of Storage, Generation, and Loads

We present a new formulation of a hybrid stochastic-robust optimization and use it to calculate a look-ahead, security-constrained optimal power flow. It is designed to reduce carbon dioxide ( <formula formulatype="inline" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex Notation="TeX">${\rm CO}_{2}$</tex></formula> ) emissions by efficiently accommodating renewable energy sources and by realistically evaluating system changes that could reduce emissions. It takes into account ramping costs, <formula formulatype="inline" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex Notation="TeX">${\rm CO}_{2}$</tex></formula> damages, demand functions, reserve needs, contingencies, and the temporally linked probability distributions of stochastic variables such as wind generation. The inter-temporal trade-offs and transversality of energy storage systems are a focus of our formulation. We use it as part of a new method to comprehensively estimate the operational net benefits of system changes. Aside from the optimization formulation, our method has four other innovations. First, it statistically estimates the cost and <formula formulatype="inline" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex Notation="TeX">${\rm CO}_{2}$</tex></formula> impacts of each generator's electricity output and ramping decisions. Second, it produces a comprehensive measure of net operating benefit, and disaggregates that into the effects on consumers, producers, system operators, government, and <formula formulatype="inline" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex Notation="TeX">${\rm CO}_{2}$</tex></formula> damage. Third and fourth, our method includes creating a novel, modified Ward reduction of the grid and a thorough generator dataset from publicly available information sources. We then apply this method to estimating the impacts of wind power, energy storage, and operational policies.

Dust-to-gas ratio, XCO factor and CO-dark gas in the Galactic anticentre: an observational study

We investigate the correlation between extinction and H~{\sc i} and CO emission at intermediate and high Galactic latitudes ($|b|>10\degr$) within the footprint of the Xuyi Schmidt Telescope Photometric Survey of the Galactic anticentre (XSTPS-GAC) on small and large scales. In Paper I (Chen et al. 2014), we present a three-dimensional dust extinction map within the footprint of XSTPS-GAC, covering a sky area of over 6,000\,deg$^2$ at a spatial angular resolution of 6\,arcmin. In the current work, the map is combined with data from gas tracers, including H~{\sc i} data from the Galactic Arecibo L-band Feed Array H~{\sc i} survey and CO data from the Planck mission, to constrain the values of dust-to-gas ratio $DGR=A_V/N({\rm H})$ and CO-to-$\rm H_2$ conversion factor $X_{\rm CO}=N({\rm H_2})/W_{\rm CO}$ for the entire GAC footprint excluding the Galactic plane, as well as for selected star-forming regions (such as the Orion, Taurus and Perseus clouds) and a region of diffuse gas in the northern Galactic hemisphere. For the whole GAC footprint, we find $DGR=(4.15\pm0.01) \times 10^{-22}$\,$\rm mag\,cm^{2}$ and $X_{\rm CO}=(1.72 \pm 0.03) \times 10^{20}$\,$\rm cm^{-2}\,(K\,km\,s^{-1})^{-1}$. We have also investigated the distribution of "CO-dark" gas (DG) within the footprint of GAC and found a linear correlation between the DG column density and the $V$-band extinction: $N({\rm DG}) \simeq 2.2 \times 10^{21} (A_V - A^{c}_{V})\,\rm cm^{-2}$. The mass fraction of DG is found to be $f_{\rm DG}\sim 0.55$ toward the Galactic anticentre, which is respectively about 23 and 124 per cent of the atomic and CO-traced molecular gas in the same region. This result is consistent with the theoretical work of Papadopoulos et al. but much larger than that expected in the $\rm H_2$ cloud models by Wolfire et al.

High-resolution observations of the outer disk around T Chamaeleontis: the view from ALMA

T Cha is a young star surrounded by a transitional disk with signatures of planet formation. We have obtained high-resolution and high-sensitivity ALMA observations of T Cha in the ${\rm CO}(3$--$2)$, ${\rm ^{13}CO}(3$--$2)$, and ${\rm CS}(7$--$6)$ emission lines to reveal the spatial distribution of the gaseous disk around the star. In order to study the dust within the disk we have also obtained continuum images at 850$\mu$m from the line-free channels. We have spatially resolved the outer disk around T Cha. Using the CO(3-2) emission we derive a radius of $\sim$230 AU. We also report the detection of the $^{13}$CO(3-2) and the CS(7-8) molecular emissions, which show smaller radii than the CO(3-2) detection. The continuum observations at 850$\mu$m allow the spatial resolution of the dusty disk, which shows two emission bumps separated by $\sim$40AU, consistent with the presence of a dust gap in the inner regions of the disk, and an outer radius of $\sim$80AU. Therefore, T Cha is surrounded by a compact dusty disk and a larger and more diffuse gaseous disk, as previously observed in other young stars. The continuum intensity profiles are different at both sides of the disk suggesting possible dust asymmetries. We derive an inclination of i(deg)=67$\pm$5, and a position angle of PA (deg)= 113$\pm$6, for both the gas and dust disks. The comparison of the ALMA data with radiative transfer models shows that the gas and dust components can only be simultaneously reproduced when we include a tapered edge prescription for the surface density profile. The best model suggests that most of the disk mass is placed within a radius of $R<$ 50AU. Finally, we derive a dynamical mass for the central object of $M_{*}$=1.5$\pm$0.2M$_{\odot}$, comparable to the one estimated with evolutionary models for an age of $\sim$10Myr.

Regularized Deconvolution-Based Approaches for Estimating Room Occupancies

We address the problem of estimating the number of people in a room using information available in standard HVAC systems. We propose an estimation scheme based on two phases. In the first phase, we assume the availability of pilot data and identify a model for the dynamic relations occurring between occupancy levels, ${\rm CO}_{2}$ concentration and room temperature. In the second phase, we make use of the identified model to formulate the occupancy estimation task as a deconvolution problem. In particular, we aim at obtaining an estimated occupancy pattern by trading off between adherence to the current measurements and regularity of the pattern. To achieve this goal, we employ a special instance of the so-called fused lasso estimator, which promotes piecewise constant estimates by including an $\ell_{1}$ norm-dependent term in the associated cost function. We extend the proposed estimator to include different sources of information, such as actuation of the ventilation system and door opening/closing events. We also provide conditions under which the occupancy estimator provides correct estimates within a guaranteed probability. We test the estimator running experiments on a real testbed, in order to compare it with other occupancy estimation techniques and assess the value of having additional information sources.