Indus River Research Articles

Evaluation of water quality indexes with novel machine learning and SHapley Additive ExPlanation (SHAP) approaches

Water quality indexes (WQI) are pivotal in assessing aquatic systems. Conventional modeling approaches rely on extensive datasets with numerous unspecified inputs, leading to time-consuming WQI assessment procedures. Numerous studies have used machine learning (ML) methods for WQI analysis but often lack model interpretability. To address this issue, this study developed five interpretable predictive models, including two gene expression programming (GEP) models, two deep neural networks (DNN) models, and one optimizable Gaussian process regressor (OGPR) model for estimating electrical conductivity (EC) and total dissolved solids (TDS). For the model development, a total of 372 records on a monthly basis were collected in the Upper Indus River at two outlet stations. The efficacy and accuracy of the models were assessed using various statistical measures, such as correlation (R), mean square error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and 5-fold cross-validation. The DNN2 model demonstrated outstanding performance compared to the other five models, exhibiting R-values closer to 1.0 for both EC and TDS. However, the genetic programming-based models, GEP1 and GEP2, exhibited comparatively lower accuracy in predicting the water quality indexes. The SHapely Additive exPlanation (SHAP) analysis revealed that bicarbonate, calcium, and sulphate jointly contribute approximately 78 % to EC, while the combined presence of sodium, bicarbonate, calcium, and magnesium accounts for around 87 % of TDS in water. Notably, the influence of pH and chloride was minimal on both water quality indexes. In conclusion, the study highlights the cost-effective and practical potential of predictive models for EC and TDS in assessing and monitoring river water quality.

Plastic trade-off: Impact of export and import of waste plastic on plastic dynamics in Asian region

Environmental contamination by plastics has been receiving considerable attention from scientists, policy makers and the public, and waste plastic trade has become a major social issue in recent years. In this study, the authors applied eco-hydrology model coupled with plastic debris model in Asian regions by including effect of waste plastic trade in order to clarify this research gap. Result showed settling and resuspension of plastic particles have great impact on mobilisation of plastic and its high intra-annual variability, and that the plastic transport becomes drastically higher during the flood periods accounting for most of the annual flux. In particular, the model simulated the size distribution of plastics in the water and riverbed sediment of the global major rivers and showed that the coarser particles are more distributed in the riverbed than those in the water. Further, the authors evaluated impact of waste plastic trade on change in riverine plastic transport by newly including effect of plastic trade on Mismanaged plastic waste (MPW) in the extension of previous studies. They newly modified to calculate municipal plastic waste by including these effects of plastic trade and disposal, and revised MPW assuming that the import of plastics is treated as the same as the export of plastics as the first approximation, which is the innovation of this study. The modified MPW became smaller than the original one in the exporting countries and vice versa in the importing countries. Further, this analysis clarified waste plastic trade has promoted decrease of riverine plastic transport in Japanese rivers, its slight increase in Yangtze, Yellow, and Ganges Rivers, and almost its constant in Mekong, Indus, Irrawaddy, and Brahmaputra Rivers. Recently, there is a growing progress in compiling existing research results and setting policy making in various countries under the umbrella of an intergovernmental negotiating committee (INC) on plastic pollution. The present results help to quantify plastic trade-off about impact of export and import of waste plastic on plastic dynamics in regional scale and to support the achievement of sustainable development goals (SGDs).

Global Drought-Wetness Conditions Monitoring Based on Multi-Source Remote Sensing Data

Drought is a common hydrometeorological phenomenon and a pervasive global hazard. To monitor global drought-wetness conditions comprehensively and promptly, this research proposed a spatial distance drought index (SDDI) which was constructed by four drought variables based on multisource remote sensing (RS) data, including the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land surface temperature (LST), soil moisture (SM), and precipitation (P), using the spatial distance model (SDM). The results showed that the consistent area of SDDI with the 1-month and 3-month standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI1 and SPEI3), and the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (scPSDI) accounted for 85.5%, 87.3%, and 85.1% of the global land surface area, respectively, indicating that the index can be used to monitor global drought-wetness conditions. Over the past two decades (2001–2020), a discernible spatial distribution pattern has emerged in global drought-wetness conditions. This pattern was characterized by the extreme drought mainly distributed deep within the continent, surrounded by expanding moderate drought, mild drought, and no drought areas. On the annual scale, the global drought-wetness conditions exhibited an upward trend, while on the seasonal and monthly scales, it fluctuated steadily within a certain cycle. Through this research, we found that the sensitive areas of drought-wetness conditions were mainly found on the east coast of Australia, the Indus Basin of the Indian Peninsula, the Victoria and Katanga Plateau areas of Africa, the Mississippi River Basin of North America, the eastern part of the Brazilian Plateau and the Pampas Plateau of South America.

Glacier thickness and volume estimation in the Upper Indus Basin using modeling and ground penetrating radar measurements

Abstract In the Himalaya, ice thickness data are limited, and field measurements are even scarcer. In this study, we employed the GlabTop model to estimate ice reserves in the Jhelum (1.9 ± 0.6 km3) and Drass (2.9 ± 0.9 km3) sub-basins of the Upper Indus Basin. Glacier ice thickness in the Jhelum ranged up to 187 ± 56 m with a mean of ~24 ± 7 m, while the Drass showed ice thickness up to 202 ± 60 m, with a mean of ~17 ± 5 m. Model results were validated using Ground Penetrating Radar measurements across four profiles in the ablation zone of the Kolahoi glacier in the Jhelum and nine profiles across the Machoi glacier in the Drass sub-basin. Despite underestimating ice-thickness by ~10%, the GlabTop model effectively captured glacier ice-thickness and spatial patterns in most of the profile locations where GPR measurements were taken. The validation showed high correlation coefficient of 0.98 and 0.87, low relative bias of ~ −13% and ~ −3% and a high Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.94 and 0.93 for the Kolahoi and Machoi glaciers, respectively, demonstrating the model's effectiveness. These ice-thickness estimates improve our understanding of glacio-hydrological, and glacial hazard processes over the Upper Indus Basin.

THE COMPARATIVE DEPOSITIONAL HETEROGENEITY OF MANCHHAR FORMATION (SIWALIK GROUP), SOUTHERN INDUS BASIN, PAKISTAN

Present study is carried out for detailed description, distribution and interpretation of lithofacies and textural analysis of Manchhar Formation from Gaj River, Manchhar Lake and Lal Bagh Sections of Southern Indus Basin Pakistan. Four different clastic lithofacies are identified during present study, which are conglomeratic sandstone (Gt), shale (Fm), fine to coarse grain flat bedded sandstone (Sh) and fine to coarse grain trough cross-bedded sandstone (St). These Facies suggest that Manchhar Formation is deposited in the Beach to shallow agitated water and fluvial system. Twenty-nine (29) unconsolidated loose and friable sandstone samples were selected for textural analysis. Grain-size parameters such as mean, median, standard deviation, Skewness and Kurtosis were used for transport history, mode and hydrodynamic energy condition to recognize the depositional environment. Stewart Diagram shows deltaic/wave water process takes active role under the influence of wave process. Linear discriminant functions analysis show that the fluvial environment of deposition dominates and influences shallows water and beach environment. Passega diagram reveals that transport mode was rolling and suspension by the tractive current that shows the fluvio-deltaic to deltaic wave with the influence of wave depositional environment of Miocene-Pliocene (Neogene) Manchhar Formation.

Microfacies shift in the Late Paleocene–Early Eocene Patala Formation in the Upper Indus Basin (Pakistan): Implications for development of the Ceno-Tethys Ocean

Field observations, petrography, and laboratory interpretations of the Patala Formation were utilized in an integrated petrologic study aimed at deciphering the genesis mechanism and controlling factors of the limestone/shale alternation during the mature development of the Ceno-Tethys Ocean in the Upper Indus Basin of Pakistan. To achieve this goal, the Patala Formation is categorized into four integrated microfacies (MM-I to MM-IV). Multiple cycles of transgression/regression are noted through fluctuations in eustatic sea level, controlled by climate and regional tectonism. Consequently, a deepening, upward retrogradation sequence was deposited on a carbonate platform of the Ceno-Tethys Ocean. The sediments of the Patala Formation exhibit a facies shift from a shallow-marine to a relatively deep-marine platform. It is indicated by the transition in fossils from shallow-marine green algae, trending towards a relatively deeper-shelf comprising benthic foraminifera such as Discocyclina, Ranikothalia, red coralline algae, echinoids (Echinothrix), and Alveolina, species. The deeper species possess robust shells adapted by organisms to maximize oxygen and light at greater depths. Additionally, mineralogical features, including gypsum (deposited in a lagoon within the platform) and pyrite (found in a deep slope toward a deep shelf), confirm deepening upward interpretations. Thermophilic dinoflagellates, thermal dissolution fragments, and hardground surfaces indicate a Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; in the lower part, ca. 56 Ma) of the Patala Formation, assigning a relative chronological age from the late Paleocene to early Eocene. These results highlight the joint influence of climate change, sea level rise, and continuous tectonic activity (associated with the Indo-Eurasian collision) on the pattern of sediment filling, and facies shift. Furthermore, the study contributes to understanding sedimentary environments, paleoenvironmental reconstruction, and paleotectonic evolution of the basin. This ideal case study provides a breakthrough advancement in globally comprehending the complex relationships between periodic autocyclic processes and aperiodic allocyclic events.

Combining Hydrological Models and Remote Sensing to Characterize Snowpack Dynamics in High Mountains

Seasonal snowpacks, characterized by their snow water equivalent (SWE), can play a major role in the hydrological cycle of montane environments with months of snow accretion followed by episodes of melt controlling flood risk and water resource availability downstream. Quantifying the temporal and spatial patterns of snowpack accumulation and its subsequent melt and runoff is an internationally significant challenge, particularly within mountainous regions featuring complex terrain with limited or absent observational data. Here we report a new approach to snowpack characterization using open-source global satellite and modelled data products (precipitation and SWE) greatly enhancing the utility of the widely used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The paper focusses on the c. 23,000 km2 Chenab river basin (CRB) in the headwaters of the Indus Basin, globally important because of its large and growing population and increasing water insecurity due to climate change. We used five area-weighted averaged satellite, gridded and reanalysis precipitation datasets: ERA5-Land, CMORPH, TRMM, APHRODITE and CPC UPP. As well as comparison to local weather station data, these were used in SWAT to model streamflow for evaluation against observed streamflow at the basin outlet. ERA5-Land data provided the best streamflow match-ups and was used to infer snowpack (SWE) dynamics at basin and sub-basin scales. Snow reference data were derived from remote sensing and modelled SWE re-analysis products: ULCA-SWE and KRA-SWE, respectively. Beyond conventional auto-calibration and single-variable approaches we undertook multi-variable calibration using R-SWAT to manually adjust snow parameters alongside observed streamflow data. Characterization of basin-wide patterns of snowpack build-up and melt (SWE dynamics) were greatly strengthened using KRA-SWE data accompanied by improved streamflow simulation in sub-basins dominated by seasonal snow cover. UCLA-SWE data also improved SWE estimations using R-SWAT but weakened the performance of simulated streamflow due to under capture of seasonal runoff from permanent snow/ice fields in the CRB. This research highlights the utility and value of remote sensing and modelling data to drive better understanding of snowpack dynamics and their contribution to runoff in the absence of in situ snowpack data in high-altitude environments. An improved understanding of snow-bound water is vital in natural hazard risk assessment and in better managing worldwide water resources in the populous downstream regions of mountain-fed large rivers under threat from climate change.

Unicorn of the Indus Valley Civilization in Epics and Mythologies: A Comparative Study

In this piece of research, an attempt is made to show whether there is a relation in between the unicorn, a single-horned male bovine of the Indus valley civilization and mythological characters like, the Ṛṣyaśṛṅga, Ekaśṛṅga, Isisiṅga, dīptaśṛṅga and nidhiśṛṅga which are depicted in the Vedic and Buddhist literature. There is a bundle of controversies about the scepticism of the single-horned bull of the Indus valley civilization, which may not be easy to decode completely without deciphering the Indus inscriptions. Few scholars have attempted to scout the link between the Indus valley civilization and the Vedic and Buddhist mythologies, as there may be a connection between the unicorn of the Indus Valley Civilization and the above-mentioned mythological characters.

Statistical Analysis of Climate Trends and Impacts on Groundwater Sustainability in the Lower Indus Basin

Agricultural intensification is increasing global demand for water, with groundwater especially susceptible given its year-round reliability. Climate change impacts on groundwater recharge exacerbate uncertainties for future access and use, especially for large aquifers across alluvial plains such as the Indus Basin of Pakistan. To generate better understanding of climate change impacts on groundwater balances in such contexts, we used MODFLOW 2005 to quantify the groundwater budget of the Northern Rohri Canal Command Area under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climatic scenarios, while also taking climatic regionalisation into account. Under a baseline scenario, total annual pumping in the northern Rohri command was estimated to be 3.619 billion cubic metres (BCM), and the total net loss in storage over the simulation period from October 2010 to April 2014 was estimated at 1.244 BCM per year. By 2047, net decline in storage is projected to more than double to 2.185 per year under RCP 4.5 scenario and 2.214 under RCP 8.5. Our estimates suggest that a sustainable yield across the command area should be managed at approximately 3 ± 0.3 BCM per year to ensure sufficient adaptive reserves of groundwater for access during times of drought and inadequate surface supply, while also reducing waterlogging impacts from high watertables. This first-time estimate of sustainable yield provides irrigation system managers with an overall guide from which divisional-scale measures to achieve the goal can be identified through stakeholder engagement.

Performance evaluation of various techniques in estimating precipitation record of a sparsely gauged mountainous watershed.

Comprehensive precipitation data is essential for hydrological, agricultural, and climatological studies. Yet, gaps and sparse rain gauge distribution pose challenges, requiring imputation algorithms to fill data gaps. The aim of this research is to evaluate the performance of several approaches for estimating incomplete precipitation data in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Eight various imputation approaches were used on sparsely gauged mountainous UIB on a monthly time series of twenty-four meteorological observatories. Following that, the estimation approaches were evaluated using a rank-based approach comprising four different statistical indicators. The results indicate that multiple linear regression is the best-performing strategy for most of the stations regardless of season or orography, followed by the arithmetic average method and inverse distance weighing method.

Lithological exploration for potable water lens in the Indus Delta and their connectivity with freshwater seepage and environment

Abstract The world's seventh-largest Indus Delta is gripped to extinction due to a continuous shortage of Indus River flows. The drastic fall in the ecology and coastal habitat due to the lack of freshwater flows, and the land degradation due to seawater intrusion is a simultaneous creeping hazard. The study aims to explore the potable water lens and their possible connection with seepage from freshwater bodies (rivers/ canals) to sustain them for drinking and agriculture use of 2 million populations. The study employed the electrical resistivity survey and 10 selected points along the Indus River at depths up to 300 m to baseline the rock type and groundwater quality; and drilling of bore logs at a maximum depth of 25 m. The result confirms the availability of two sandstone layers with marginal freshwater along the river and in some pockets; however brackish water was observed along the coast in a limestone formation. It is evident from the results that surface seepage from the Indus River and non-perennial ‘Pinyari’ canal has a progressive influence on the improvement of groundwater quality and confinement of seawater intrusion.

The coincidence of climate extremes with sensitive crop growth phases: Projected impact on sustainable crop water use and crop yield in the IGB river basins

Increased climate variability and extremes are unequivocal with unprecedented impacts on water resources and agriculture production systems. However, little is known about the impacts of climate extremes at the intra-seasonal level which remained largely unexplored. We investigated the coincidence of climate extremes with sensitive crop growth phases of wheat and rice in the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra (IGB) river basins of South Asia. We also quantified the related impacts on irrigation water demand (IWD), gross primary production (GPP) and crop yields (CY) simulated by a hydrological-vegetation model (LPJmL) during 1981–2100 using RCP4.5-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3 framework. The climate extremes revealed a higher frequency and intensity during crop growth phases with significant increasing trends in future. Diverse changes in IWD, GPP and CY are projected in future under the influence of crop phase-specific extremes. The crop phase-specific changes in the IWD of wheat and rice will intensify in the future. More than 50 % of the change in future wheat irrigation is caused by warm and dry extremes during the ripening phase. Whereas, increase in IWD for rice is mainly associated with warm extremes only. The crop phase-specific GPP shows a decreasing trend in future for both wheat and rice in the Western part of IGB with the largest decrease during the reproductive phase of wheat (up to 36 %) and vegetative phase of rice (>20 %). This decrease is clearly reflected in seasonal yields i.e., both wheat (20 %) and rice (12 %) showed a decrease in future linked with warm and dry extremes. However, in the Eastern part of IGB, the GPP will mostly increase in future during the three crop phases of wheat and rice. These results can be used to help develop efficient adaptation strategies considering seasonal changes and sensitive crop phases for sustained food and water security in South Asia.

Assessment of anthropogenic-causing-agents act on waterbirds-diversity in the vicinity of Tarbela Dam, Indus River, Pakistan.

Birds are among the best bio-indicators, which can guide us to recognize some of the main conservation concerns in ecosystems. Anthropogenic impacts such as deforestation, habitat degradation, modification of landscapes, and decreased quality of habitats are major threats to bird diversity. The present study was designed to detect anthropogenic causative agents that act on waterbird diversity in Tarbella Dam, Indus River, Pakistan. Waterbird censuses were carried out from March 2019 to February 2020 in multiple areas around the dam. A total of 2990 waterbirds representing 63 species were recorded. We detected the highest waterbird richness and diversity at Pehure whereas the highest density was recorded at Kabbal. Human activity impacts seemed to be the main factor determining the waterbird communities as waterbirds were negatively correlated with the greatest anthropogenic impacts. Waterbirds seem to respond rapidly to human disturbance.

Utilizing Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict Accuracy of the Index of Relative Tectonic Activity (IRTA), Dhansiri (North) River Basin in India and Bhutan

Utilizing Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict Accuracy of the Index of Relative Tectonic Activity (IRTA), Dhansiri (North) River Basin in India and Bhutan

Ports, Cities, and Hinterlands: Historical Investigation of the Economic Relationship between Karachi and the Indus River Basin

Ports, Cities, and Hinterlands: Historical Investigation of the Economic Relationship between Karachi and the Indus River Basin

An alarming tendency towards freshwater mussel misidentification in scientific works may bias endangered and invasive species management

Abstract Freshwater mussels (order Unionida) are a popular group for a wide array of non‐taxonomic research driven by questions related to their functions in ecosystems, to relationships among species, to biogeochemical and morphometric patterns of certain species and others. Valid taxonomy and correct species identification are key requirements for all of these aspects. However, species‐level identification of representatives from this group is a rather complicated task and should be based on an integrative approach, combining DNA sequences, morphological and anatomical investigation and biogeographical estimates. This article reconsiders a selection of non‐taxonomic scientific works (N = 25), containing misidentified occurrences of freshwater mussel species. The dataset contains records of the endangered Margaritifera margaritifera (endemic to eastern North America and Europe) from the Philippines and West Africa, as well as occurrences of the Nearctic Gonidea angulata from West Africa and the Middle East. Several Palearctic and Nearctic unionid species were erroneously reported from the Indus River, Pakistan. Subfossil shells of the native Simpsonella sp. from a prehistoric site in the Philippines were misidentified as the invasive Sinanodonta woodiana that was introduced to the islands in the 20th century. Samples of the tropical lineage of S. woodiana from Indonesia were mistaken for the native Pilsbryoconcha exilis, and vice versa. Salinity tolerance and morphometric characteristics of the estuarine clam Geloina sp. (Cyrenidae) from Sumatra were examined, but these data were published as belonging to the strictly freshwater S. woodiana. It is clear that this information, being reused by researchers, conservationists and stakeholders, will lead to incorrect conclusions on the range, status, biogeochemistry, morphometry and ecological tolerance of certain freshwater mussel taxa, including invasive and endangered species (the so‐called ‘error cascades’ in biological sciences caused by ‘bad taxonomy’). To reduce the growing body of literature containing misidentifications of the Unionida taxa, practical recommendations are proposed for researchers, who include freshwater mussels in non‐taxonomic surveys, as well as for journal editors dealing with articles that focus on these animals.

Assessing the stability of the reservoir rim in moraine deposits for a mega RCC dam

<abstract> <p>Diamer Basha Dam is an under-construction, 272-meter-high, roller compacted concrete (RCC) dam on the Indus River in Pakistan. Once constructed, it will be the world's highest RCC gravity dam with a 105-kilometer-long reservoir. Most of the reservoir lies in unstable moraine deposits with steep slopes. Events like saturation during reservoir filling, alternate wetting, drawdown during reservoir operation, or a seismic event could trigger a large mass movement of these slopes into the reservoir to disrupt the dam functionality. This work identified the 15 most vulnerable slide areas using digital slope maps, elevation maps, and satellite imagery. Deterministic slope stability analysis was carried out on the identified sections under various stages of reservoir operation for static and seismic loading, using pseudo-static and dynamic analysis approaches. Probabilistic analysis was then performed using Monte Carlo simulation. The findings showed that most moraine deposits would collapse under reservoir filling, rapid drawdown, or seismic activity. Following the assessments, landslide susceptibility maps were generated, and an assessment of potential impacts, including the generation of dynamic waves, reservoir blockage, increased sediment loads, and reduced reservoir storage capacity, was also performed.</p> </abstract>

Geopolitical Implications of Transboundary Rivers in South Asia Region

The Contemporary era is Characterised by intensified competition for water resources among the nations,in the twenty –first century’s global order, hydro-politics emerged as a crucial enemy that significantlyimpacted the strategic landscape and national security has become closely linked to several geopolitics’factors. South Asia is grappling with numerous internal issues, the three major river systems the Ganges,Indus, and Brahmaputra River basins serves as the geopolitical tensions in the region. The researchexamines the historical context and ongoing conflicts between India, Pakistan, China, and Bangladesh overthese critical water resources. It investigates the causes of disputes, such as dam development and water-sharing agreements, as well as their implications for regional stability. The analysis emphasizes the criticalneed for collaborative management and long-term solutions to solve water security and promote regionalharmony.

Climate Change Adaptation in the Built Environment: Lessons from a Geographical Transect of Indus River Basin Settlements

Climate Change Adaptation in the Built Environment: Lessons from a Geographical Transect of Indus River Basin Settlements

Runoff modelling and quantification of supraglacial debris impact on seasonal streamflow in the highly glacierized catchments of the western Karakoram in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

Runoff modelling and quantification of supraglacial debris impact on seasonal streamflow in the highly glacierized catchments of the western Karakoram in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan