Risky Outcomes Research Articles

How do different kinds of incidental emotions influence risk decision making?

Incidental emotions, which are irrelevant to the ongoing decision, play a significant role in decision-making processes. In this study, we investigated the influence of specific incidental emotions on behavioral, psychological, and electrophysiological responses during the process of decision making. Participants finished a forced-choice gambling task, during which incidental emotions (anger/fear/happiness) were elicited by recalling emotional experiences. Behavioral and event-related potential (ERP) data were recorded in the experiment. Behavioral results showed that risk preference was weaker in the fearful condition than in the angry and happy conditions, but emotional feelings to outcome feedback were not influenced by incidental emotions. The feedback-related negativity (FRN) amplitude was larger in the fearful condition than in the angry, happy, and neutral conditions for large outcomes, whereas there was no difference between the four conditions for small outcomes. In addition, the influence of outcome magnitude (small/large) on the P3 amplitude was stronger in the fearful condition than in the angry, happy, and neutral conditions. We suggest that incidental fear elicits risk-avoidant behavior (manifested in behavioral choices), stronger motivation (manifested in the FRN amplitude) and cognitive resources (manifested in the P3 amplitude) for risky outcomes of decision making unconsciously (indicated by unchanged subjective emotional experiences). The current findings have expanded our understanding of the role of specific incidental emotions in decision making.

Comparison of multiplicative and additive hyperbolic and hyperboloid discounting models in delayed lotteries involving gains and losses

Many day-to-day decisions may involve risky outcomes that occur at some delay after a decision has been made. We refer to such scenarios as delayed lotteries. Despite human choice often involves delayed lotteries, past research has primarily focused on decisions with delayed or risky outcomes. Comparatively, less research has explored how delay and probability interact to influence decisions. Within research on delayed lotteries, rigorous comparisons of models that describe choice from the discounting framework have not been conducted. We performed two experiments to determine how gain or loss outcomes are devalued when delayed and risky. Experiment 1 used delay and probability ranges similar to past research on delayed lotteries. Experiment 2 used individually calibrated delay and probability ranges. Ten discounting models were fit to the data using a genetic algorithm. Candidate models were derived from past research on discounting delayed or probabilistic outcomes. We found that participants' behavior was best described primarily by a three-parameter multiplicative model. Measures based on information criteria pointed to a solution in which only delay and probability were psychophysically scaled. Absolute measures based on residuals pointed to a solution in which amount, delay, and probability are simultaneously scaled. Our research suggests that separate scaling parameters for different discounting factors may not be necessary with delayed lotteries.

The Benefit of Using an Ensemble of Global Hydrological Models in Surface Water Availability for Irrigation Area Planning

Hydrological data and information on the availability of water are essential to support water allocation decisions in irrigated agriculture, especially under increasingly water scarce conditions. However, in many agricultural regions hydrological information is scarce, leading to sub-optimal water allocation decisions and crop yield reduction. Here we assess the benefit of using surface water availability estimates derived from an ensemble of global hydrological models for establishing the potential area that can be irrigated; where the size is determined based on agreed water supply reliability targets. Risky outcomes of the annual agricultural production due to the true occurrence of water scarcity are generated for both the reference and established irrigation areas, resulting in a Relative Utility Value (RUV) that expresses the utility of the information used. Results show that using an ensemble of global hydrological models provides more robust estimates of the planned area compared to using any of the single global models that constitutes the ensemble. A comparison of the information content in the ensemble shows that an ensemble with a period of record of 15 years has an information content equivalent to a single model of 30 years.

Classical and Deep Learning Paradigms for Detection and Validation of Key Genes of Risky Outcomes of HCV

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is one of the most dangerous viruses worldwide. It is the foremost cause of the hepatic cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma, HCC. Detecting new key genes that play a role in the growth of HCC in HCV patients using machine learning techniques paves the way for producing accurate antivirals. In this work, there are two phases: detecting the up/downregulated genes using classical univariate and multivariate feature selection methods, and validating the retrieved list of genes using Insilico classifiers. However, the classification algorithms in the medical domain frequently suffer from a deficiency of training cases. Therefore, a deep neural network approach is proposed here to validate the significance of the retrieved genes in classifying the HCV-infected samples from the disinfected ones. The validation model is based on the artificial generation of new examples from the retrieved genes’ expressions using sparse autoencoders. Subsequently, the generated genes’ expressions data are used to train conventional classifiers. Our results in the first phase yielded a better retrieval of significant genes using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), a multivariate approach. The retrieved list of genes using PCA had a higher number of HCC biomarkers compared to the ones retrieved from the univariate methods. In the second phase, the classification accuracy can reveal the relevance of the extracted key genes in classifying the HCV-infected and disinfected samples.

Evaluation of risk preferences and coping strategies to manage with various agricultural risks: evidence from India.

The present study proposes to analyse farmers' attitudes towards risk and examine the effect of specific socio-demographic and socio-economic characteristics on farmers' risk attitudes in irrigated and rain-fed regions of Odisha, India. A total of 400 randomly selected farmers participated in the experiment. The study applies the Modified Holt and Laury Lottery method for measuring risk attitudes. The majority of the farmers are having a risk-averse attitude and only a few farmers have a risk-taking attitude. One-sixth of the farmers are having risk-neutral decision behavior. The effect of Socio-demographic and socio-economic variables on farmers' risk attitude is also measured using an ordered probit model dealing with risky outcomes. The study reveals a negative relationship between household size and a risk-averse attitude. The study also reveals a negative relationship between off-farm income source and risk-averse attitude. The study also finds that there is an immediate need to improve extension facilities in the study area to train these farmers regarding the best risk management practices for deciding the choice of a particular crop such as growing short-duration crops as well as climate-resistant crop variety. Storage facilities need to be improved and there is an urgent need for improved irrigation systems to increase production particularly in Bolangir district. The result provides government agencies an outline to know how risky farming environment affects farmers' production decisions and designing policies such as crop insurance, weather-based crop insurance and other safety nets that effectively address farmer's problem. The main intention behind this experimental design is to make the policy makers aware of the high degree of risk aversion existing in a rural developing farm setting. Socio-demographic and socio-economic variables can be taken as a reference while implementing policies dealing with risky outcomes.

Posting Post-Blackout: A Qualitative Examination of the Positive and Negative Valence of Tweets Posted after “Blackout” Drinking

Alcohol-induced memory loss (i.e., blackout) is a consequence of drinking that is both common and associated with additional negative outcomes. The goal of the present study was to use publicly available Twitter data to better understand cognitions and emotions following blackouts. Tweets containing key terms (e.g., “black out”) were collected over 4 days in 2018. Using NVivo software, we coded all post-blackout Tweets for valence (positive, negative, neutral). Within each valence category, we reviewed Tweets to identify themes. Among Tweets coded with a positive valence, themes included pride in blacking out, pride in ability to function despite blackouts, blackouts as a shared social experience, and overall positive views of a drinking experience despite blackouts. Among Tweets coded with a negative valence, themes included the experience of other negative consequences on blackout nights, blackouts as unexpected/unplanned, blackouts as motivator of change, and blackout-related negative emotions. Additionally, Tweeters expressed pride in avoiding blackouts during drinking events. Findings provide insight into why not all individuals describe blackouts negatively, by analyzing specific statements made in a public forum following a blackout. Such insight may inform interventions targeting those who report this risky outcome of drinking, including those that could be delivered via social media.

Medical technologies and abortion care in Eastern Uganda

Manual Vacuum Aspirators (MVA), Dilation and Curettage (D&C), and medical abortifacients (Misoprostol, Mifepristone and Divabo) are available in clinical settings that offer abortion and post-abortion care in Uganda. While these technologies imply appropriate and safe abortion care, legal and policy ambiguities impact health outcomes. In this article, we draw on an ethnography of abortion care delivery practice conducted in one district in Eastern Uganda between August 2018 and March 2019, with data from interviews and observations, both of interactions and during quality of care improvement and training meetings. We illuminate how, in the context of a financialized healthcare system and legal restrictions, the meanings and use of medical technologies and abortion care vary across different health facility types. In public health facilities, health workers become state agents in the control of women's bodies. In private health facilities, they become transgressors, who use medical technologies to help women attain termination surreptitiously. Health workers offset risks associated with any involvement in termination, such that pecuniary interests dominate their motivation. Normalized and disciplinary power enact and reproduce unsafe and risky conditions, leading to poor abortion care outcomes. We illustrate the mechanisms of domination and tactics of resistance in abortion care, and expose conditions upon which unsafe and risky outcomes are contingent.

Effective harmonic reduction technique for an ESTLDC inverter in hybrid energy based application

ABSTRACT The increasing concern about the deficiency of energy resources and the risky outcome of fossil fuel emission has started a new necessity of trustworthy and cleaner green power sources such as solar and wind system. The output of these sources is connected to the grid via the use of five-level inverter in recent times which has started attracting extra attention, due to many benefits that they provide in comparison to the three-level inverter. This paper analyses the eight switch three level diode clamped (ESTLDC) inverter supplied to grid and investigates the three space vector pulse width modulation (SVPWM) strategies namely α-β frame, g-h frame, and m-n-o-p frame for the suitable working of the system. The assessment of these methods is specified in terms of the voltage waveforms, total harmonic distortion (THD) in an entire linear modulation index choice. In this work, the ESTLDC inverter is employed as a harmonic mitigation device, this enables the grid to always absorb or supply a high-quality power. Besides, the comparison outcomes authenticates that SVPWM based on m-n-o-p frame is found easier to recognise and offers improved control of the grid-connected inverter. Further, the proposed inverter uses eight switches consequently losses are minimised. Experimental outcomes have revealed the strength and viability of the proposed technique.

Neural mechanism underlying risk attitude and probability distortion: One two-stage model of valuation and choice

Although the neural mechanism underlying risk decision has been extensively investigated, the neural origination of risk attitude and probability distortion need to be further elucidated. In this study, the Rescorla–Wagner model with learning rates a+/a- upon gain/loss evaluates the risky outcome and forms the subjective values of risky options through the learning process, and the softmax function of subjective values produces the choice probability between options. Our model demonstrates that risk attitude is determined by the undervaluation/overvaluation of risky outcome, the standard deviation of the subjective value, and the discrimination ability between subjective value. Our model further displays that overweighting/underweighting of small probabilities results from asymmetric learning rates and the discrimination ability between subjective value. These findings suggest that risk attitude and probability distortion share a common neural mechanism.

Dopaminergic D1 Receptor Stimulation Affects Effort and Risk Preferences

BackgroundActivation of D1 receptors has been related to successful goal-directed behavior, but it remains unclear whether D1 receptor activation causally tips the balance of weighing costs and benefits in humans. Here, we tested the impact of pharmacologically stimulated D1 receptors on sensitivity to risk, delay, and effort costs in economic choice and investigated whether D1 receptor stimulation would bias preferences toward options with increased costs in a cost-specific manner. MethodsIn a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group phase 1 study, 120 healthy young volunteers received either placebo or 1 of 3 doses (6 mg, 15 mg, or 30 mg) of a novel, selective D1 agonist (PF-06412562). After drug administration, participants performed decision tasks measuring their preferences for risky, delayed, and effortful outcomes. ResultsHigher doses of the D1 agonist increased the willingness to exert physical effort for reward as well as reduced the preference for risky outcomes. We observed no effects on preferences for delayed rewards. ConclusionsThe current results provide evidence that D1 receptor stimulation causally affects core aspects of cost-benefit decision making in humans.

Disturbance modifies payoffs in the explore-exploit trade-off

Decision-making agents face a fundamental trade-off between exploring new opportunities with risky outcomes versus exploiting familiar options with more certain but potentially suboptimal outcomes. Although mediation of this trade-off is essential to adaptive behavior and has for decades been assumed to modulate performance, the empirical consequences of human exploratory strategies are unknown beyond laboratory or theoretical settings. Leveraging 540,000 vessel position records from 2494 commercial fishing trips along with corresponding revenues, here we find that during undisturbed conditions, there was no relationship between exploration and performance, contrary to theoretical predictions. However, during a major disturbance event which closed the most-utilized fishing grounds, explorers benefited significantly from less-impacted revenues and were also more likely to continue fishing. We conclude that in stochastic natural systems characterized by non-stationary rewards, the role of exploration in buffering against disturbance may be greater than previously thought in humans.

Are risks over multiple attributes traded off? A case study of aid

Understanding decisions in situations involving multiple risks is vital in many contexts, including the provision of aid to developing countries. Aid typically involves trade-offs over multiple, desirable, but risky outcomes. We partner with an aid organisation and design a laboratory experiment to investigate multi-attribute risk preferences in the context of donations to risky aid projects. We find significant differences between attitudes over single risk outcomes in monetary and non-monetary domains. Our results show that individuals are generally multi-attribute risk averse and view aid outcomes as substitutes rather than complements. These preferences of donors contrast sharply with the views of experts and aid agencies, who tend to emphasise the complementary nature of aid outcomes. Finally, when individuals make risky donation decisions with their own money rather than someone else's money, the degree of risk aversion decreases markedly.

Risky choices in strategic environments: An experimental investigation of a real options game

Managers frequently make decisions under conditions of fundamental uncertainty due the stochastic nature of the outcomes and competitive rivalry. In this study, we experimentally test a theoretical model under fundamental uncertainty and competitive rivalry by designing a sequential interaction game between two players. The first mover can decide either to choose a sure outcome that assigns a risky outcome to the second mover or to pass the decision to the second mover. If the second player gets the chance to decide, she can choose between a sure outcome, conditioned by the assignment of a risky payoff to the first mover, or the sharing of the risky outcome with the first mover. We then introduce the following experimental treatments: (i) relegating second-mover participants to a purely passive role and substituting them with a random device (absence of strategic uncertainty – that is, when the source of uncertainty is a human subject); (ii) providing information about the behaviour of second-mover counterparts; and (iii) completely removing the second-mover participant.We find that decision makers are sensitive to the presence or absence of strategic uncertainty; indeed, in the presence of strategic uncertainty, first movers more often diverge from the behaviour predicted by the model. Given our experimental results, the theoretical model needs to be revisited. The standard model of monetary payoff-maximizing agents should be substituted by one of decision makers who maximize a utility function which includes the psychological cost induced by strategic uncertainty.

Neural Dynamics of Processing Probability Weight and Monetary Magnitude in the Evaluation of a Risky Reward.

Risky decision-making involves risky reward valuation, choice, and feedback processes. However, the temporal dynamics of risky reward processing are not well understood. Using event-related brain potential, we investigated the neural correlates of probability weight and money magnitude in the evaluation of a risky reward. In this study, each risky choice consisted of two risky options, which were presented serially to separate decision-making and option evaluation processes. The early P200 component reflected the process of probability weight, not money magnitude. The medial frontal negativity (MFN) reflected both probability weight and money magnitude processes. The late positive potential (LPP) only reflected the process of probability weight. These results demonstrate distinct temporal dynamics for probability weight and money magnitude processes when evaluating a risky outcome, providing a better understanding of the possible mechanism underlying risky reward processing.

Probability discounting of environmental gains: do we multiply or add up?

Individuals often discount and transform risky environmental outcomes into psychological certainty equivalences (CEs) during environmental decision-making. Their preference for different alternatives is influenced by the discounting degree. Our first experiment undertook a preliminary inspection of the probability discounting of environmental gains through a matching method; whereas in Experiment 2, the discounting rule of environmental gain was compared with monetary gain by a new line-projective method, which asked participants to project their subjective value evaluation explicitly on a line of specific length. The environmental gain and its mental value-equivalent monetary gain were analogical with respect to discounting degree and process model fitting. The probability discounting of both gains was better described by an additive-utility model than the normative exponential and hyperbolic models, which means that individuals were likely to discount the risky outcome by simply adding the disutility of uncertainty to the gain’s nominal utility, rather than by multiplying the initial value by a discounting factor. It may be of great value in shedding light on the lay public evaluation of risky environmental interventions and boosting pro-environmental policy support.

Examination of associations between risky driving behaviors and hazardous drinking among a sample of college students

Objective: Hazardous drinking is associated with other risky behaviors and negative health-related outcomes. This study examined covariation between hazardous drinking scores and the following risky driving behaviors: Falling asleep while driving, texting (receiving and sending) while driving, and driving after consuming alcohol.Methods: The participants in this study were a sample of undergraduate students (N = 1,298) who were enrolled in an introductory health course at a large Southeastern university in spring 2016 and completed an online health survey that assessed hazardous drinking, falling asleep while driving, texting while driving, and driving after consuming alcohol. We conducted a series of 2-step regression analyses to examine covariation between hazardous drinking scores (using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test–Consumption [AUDIT-C]) and the risky driving behaviors of interest.Results: We found that the majority of participants did not drink and drive (91.8%), nor did they fall asleep while driving (80.4%); however, the majority did read a text while driving (81.7%) and sent a text while driving (75.3%). In the full multivariable model, hazardous drinking score was positively associated with drinking and driving (step 2 odds ratio [OR] = 1.28, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18, 1.38) and sending a text message while driving (step 2 b = 0.19, P = .01). Hazardous drinking score was also positively associated with reading a text while driving (step 1 b = 0.14, P < .001) and falling asleep while driving (step 1 b = 0.02, P = .02) in the model only controlling for demographic characteristics. The analyses also indicated covariability between the following risky driving behaviors: (1) drinking and driving/reading a text message while driving, (2) drinking and driving/falling asleep and driving, (3) reading a text while driving/sending a text while driving, and (4) sending a text while driving/sleeping and driving.Conclusion: The findings of this study indicate a need for interventions discouraging both hazardous drinking and risky driving behaviors in college student populations; recommendations to reduce risky driving and hazardous drinking are discussed.

Adaptive Recruitment and Parenting Interventions for Immigrant Latino Families with Adolescents

Parenting programs are an effective strategy to prevent multiple risky outcomes during adolescence. However, these programs usually enroll one caregiver and have low attendance. This study evaluated the preliminary results, cost, and satisfaction of adaptive recruitment and parenting interventions for immigrant Latino families. A mixed methods study was conducted integrating a pre-post design with embedded qualitative and process evaluations. Fifteen immigrant Latino families with an adolescent child aged 10-14 were recruited. Two-caregiver families received a home visit to increase enrollment of both caregivers. All families participated in an adaptive parenting program that included group sessions and a one-to-one component (online videos plus follow-up telephone calls) for those who did not attend the group sessions. The intervention addressed positive parenting practices using a strengths-based framework. Primary outcomes were the proportion of two-parent families recruited and intervention participation. Secondary outcomes were change in parenting self-efficacy, practices, fidelity, costs, and satisfaction. Participants completed questionnaires and interaction tasks before and after participating in the intervention. In addition, participants and program facilitators completed individual interviews to assess satisfaction with the program components. Overall, 23 parents participated in the intervention; 73% of two-parent families enrolled with both parents. Most participants completed 75% or more of the intervention. Fathers were more likely to use the one-to-one component of the intervention than mothers (p = .038). Participants were satisfied with program modifications. In sum, adaptive recruitment and parenting interventions achieved high father enrollment and high participation. These findings warrant further evaluation in randomized trials.

Are Choice Experiment Treatments of Outcome Uncertainty Sufficient? An Application to Climate Risk Reductions

Choice experiments addressing outcome uncertainty (OU) typically reframe continuous probability densities for each risky outcome into two discrete categories, each with a single probability of occurrence. The implications of this simplification for welfare estimation are unknown. This article evaluates the convergent validity of willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates from a more accurate multiple-outcome treatment of OU, compared to the two-outcome approach. Results for a case study of coastal flood adaptation in Connecticut, United States, suggest that higher-resolution OU treatments increase choice complexity but can provide additional information on risk preferences and WTP. This tradeoff highlights challenges facing the valuation of uncertain outcomes.

The influence of motives on alcohol- and sex-related behaviors among female college students

PurposeAlthough previous studies have elucidated associations between motivations for drinking and sex as they relate to risky health outcomes among female college students, the utility of cross-domain motives (i.e., alcohol motives predicting sex-related outcomes and vice versa) in the prediction of specific alcohol- and sex-related behaviors has yet to be examined. The current study examined relations between drinking and sex motives with multiple risky alcohol- and sex-related outcomes (i.e., alcohol consumption, alcohol-related problems, alcohol consumption prior to sexual intercourse, number of sexual partners [vaginal, oral, anal], and emergency contraception use). ProceduresMultiple structural equation models were used to examine univariate and multivariate associations among drinking and sex motives and specific outcomes in a sample of female undergraduates with lifetime histories of alcohol use and sexual activity (N = 436; 77% White, 21% Hispanic). ResultsFindings indicated differential associations between motives and specific outcomes across univariate versus multivariate analyses. Multivariate models indicated greater endorsement of enhancement and less endorsement of intimacy sex motives were significantly associated with heavy drinking and alcohol-related problems, whereas alcohol motives were less reliably linked to sex-related outcomes. When considered simultaneously, sex motives accounted for more variance in some alcohol outcomes relative to certain drinking motives. ConclusionsCross-domain motives may be useful in predicting risky outcomes among female college students. Research implications include the importance of examining motive-behavior relations in univariate and multivariate contexts. Clinical implications include cross-domain motive assessment and use of emotion regulation strategies to reduce emotionally-motivated maladaptive alcohol- and sex-related behaviors.

Histopathological evaluation of aortic coarctation after conventional balloon angioplasty in neonates.

Optimal management strategy for native aortic coarctation in neonates and young infants is still a matter of debate. The surgical procedure, histopathologic research, and clinical outcome in 15 neonates who underwent surgery after successful balloon angioplasty is the basis of this study. Between 01 October, 2014 and 01 August, 2017, we enrolled 15 patients with native aortic coarctation for this study. These patients had complications regarding recoarctation, following balloon angioplasty intervention at our institute and other centres. Surgically extracted parts were examined histopathologically and patient's data were collected retrospectively.ResultThe reasons for recurrence of recoarctation after balloon angioplasty are as follows: patients with higher preoperative echocardiographic gradients had recoarctation earlier, neointimal proliferation, aortic intimal fibrosis at the region of ductal insertion, and ductal residual tissue debris after balloon angioplasty. No repeat intervention was required in the 15 patients who underwent surgery followed by balloon angioplasty. Early mortality was seen in one patient after surgery. Postoperative complication in the surgical group occurred in the form of chylothorax in one patient. In centres in which the neonatal ICU is inexperienced, balloon angioplasty is particularly recommended. In developing neonatal clinics, balloon angioplasty, when performed on patients at their earliest possible age, delays actual corrective operation to a later date, which in turn provides less risky surgical outcomes in infants who are gaining weight, growing, and do not have any haemodynamic complaints.