Risky Option Research Articles

Waterfall Illusion in Risky Choice – Exposure to Outcome-Irrelevant Gambles Affects Subsequent Valuation of Risky Gambles

Based on recent discoveries in economics, neuroscience, and psychology, we hypothesize that pure exposure to high-payoff or low-payoff gambles can change people’s subsequent reported valuations of gambles and confirm this hypothesis in a laboratory experiment. In particular, the same participants within the same experimental session provide higher valuations for the same gambles after they have been exposed to low-payoff gambles compared to after they have been exposed to high-payoff gambles. These results are consistent with the current understanding of how the nervous system encodes payoffs and imply that even brief experiences that do not change wealth can impact an individual’s reported valuations of risky options.

Risk perception of cigarette and e-cigarette use during pregnancy: A qualitative postpartum perspective

AimThe aim of this exploratory qualitative analysis is to assess the perceptions of risks of cigarette and e-cigarette use during pregnancy. BackgroundAn important public health aim is a reduction of smoking at time of delivery (SATOD) from 10.6% to less than 6% by 2022 in the United Kingdom (UK). In order to successfully meet this target, we need to have a better understanding of the perceived risks associated with cigarette smoking. Additionally, the use of e-cigarettes is increasing in the general population, with pregnant women being supported to use such products if it helps them remain smoke free. However, in contrast to cigarette smoking, there is little definitive research assessing the safety of e-cigarette use during pregnancy, with most information disregarding the health of the growing fetus. E-cigarettes are of special interest, given they are an unlicensed product for use during pregnancy, yet women are being supported to use them as a method of harm reduction. A better understanding of perceived risks is essential. MethodFourteen interviews were conducted one month postpartum with women who smoked during pregnancy and continued to smoke after the birth. Thematic analysis was conducted. FindingsTwo themes emerged for cigarette smoking; health and justifications. Six themes were identified for e-cigarette use; the unknown, experience, comparison to cigarettes, the product, advice and healthier option. A range of subthemes are discussed. ConclusionWomen provided a range of justifications for continuing to smoke during pregnancy. Women felt e-cigarettes were a riskier option than continuing to smoke.

Does option complexity contribute to the framing effect, loss aversion, and delay discounting in younger and older adults?

AbstractRecent findings suggest that the commonly observed preference for a safe over a risky option, which is more pronounced in older than in younger adults, is largely driven by differences in the complexity of those options. Here we examine whether option complexity also contributes to the emergence of the framing effect and loss aversion in risky choice as well as to delay discounting in intertemporal choice. All of these phenomena tend to be measured with choice problems that involve options differing in complexity. We also examine whether option complexity contributes to potential age differences in these phenomena. In each paradigm, we experimentally increased the complexity of the simpler option, thus reducing differences in the complexity of the options. We found no evidence for an effect of this manipulation on the framing effect nor on participants' preferences in the loss aversion task. On average, participants did not show loss aversion. Increasing the complexity of the option with an immediate reward in the intertemporal choice task made younger, but unexpectedly not older, adults less likely to choose this option. Our results thus indicate that preferences in tasks typically used to measure the framing effect, loss aversion, and delay discounting are only little affected by differences in option complexity.

Sharing or gambling? On risk attitudes in social contexts

Decisions under risk are often embedded in a social context that we usually abstract from when studying decision-making in the laboratory. In contrast to that practice, our experiment investigates whether risk-taking is affected by social comparisons. In particular, we focus on situations where some amount of money has to be allocated to two parties: either the amount can be shared, or a random device allocates the entire amount to one of the parties. We find that the social context of the decision matters strongly: When participants are in a disadvantageous initial position compared to the other party, they select the risky option much more often than in a purely individual decision, identical in all other respects. Overall, we find that individuals are relatively more risk-seeking in the socially unfavorable domain than in isolation, in contrast to the favorable one, where we find no or little change in elicited risk attitudes in comparison to an isolated decision.

Using dynamic monitoring of choices to predict and understand risk preferences

Navigating conflict is integral to decision-making, serving a central role both in the subjective experience of choice as well as contemporary theories of how we choose. However, the lack of a sensitive, accessible, and interpretable metric of conflict has led researchers to focus on choice itself rather than how individuals arrive at that choice. Using mouse-tracking-continuously sampling computer mouse location as participants decide-we demonstrate the theoretical and practical uses of dynamic assessments of choice from decision onset through conclusion. Specifically, we use mouse tracking to index conflict, quantified by the relative directness to the chosen option, in a domain for which conflict is integral: decisions involving risk. In deciding whether to accept risk, decision makers must integrate gains, losses, status quos, and outcome probabilities, a process that inevitably involves conflict. Across three preregistered studies, we tracked participants' motor movements while they decided whether to accept or reject gambles. Our results show that 1) mouse-tracking metrics of conflict sensitively detect differences in the subjective value of risky versus certain options; 2) these metrics of conflict strongly predict participants' risk preferences (loss aversion and decreasing marginal utility), even on a single-trial level; 3) these mouse-tracking metrics outperform participants' reaction times in predicting risk preferences; and 4) manipulating risk preferences via a broad versus narrow bracketing manipulation influences conflict as indexed by mouse tracking. Together, these results highlight the importance of measuring conflict during risky choice and demonstrate the usefulness of mouse tracking as a tool to do so.

Mobilizing Ecological Processes for Herbivore Production: Farmers and Researchers Learning Together

Grazing plays a key role in reducing the external inputs required for ruminant production and in alleviating feed-food competition. Beyond the production of meat and milk, grassland-based systems provide a wide range of ecosystem services. Agroecology and organic farming aim to reconcile natural resource management and food production, in the long term, based on the management of ecological processes. In this perspective paper, we report what we have learned from case studies with beef cattle, sheep, and dairy cattle across Uruguay and western Europe, in which we have been involved. Multicriteria methods, such as Pareto frontiers and positive deviances, were used to analyze trade-offs and identify win-wins from farm surveys. Long-term farm networks coupled with bioeconomic optimization models revealed fluctuations in farm income and allowed estimating system resilience. Extensive farmlet experiments made it possible to integrate knowledge on animal physiology and grassland ecology in the system redesign process and to test for innovative and risky management options that could lead to unacceptable learning costs in commercial farms. Finally, learning from farmers' local knowledge in teams with researchers and technical advisers can provide positive changes in grazing systems. In Uruguayan family farms, for example, the scientific knowledge gained from farmlet experiments led to advice on management options based on farm-specific diagnosis. Farmers adapted the proposals, with researchers supporting the processes by providing quantitative information on consequences and spaces for reflection. In a French cheese production area, the focus was on farmers' own experience. Games facilitated interactions as participants could challenge each other's reasoning and conclusions in a safe environment. These two case studies illustrate the diversity of co-innovation approaches, but in both cases knowledge sharing between researchers, farmers, and other stakeholders appeared more efficient to help farmers understand and adapt their own system properties than researching best practice solutions for large-scale transfer.

Carryover of domain-dependent risk preferences in a novel decision-making task

AbstractWe investigated whether people’s risk taking tendency established in one domain (gains or losses) carries over to the other domain. Participants played a game in which they made repeated decisions between a fixed payoff and a risky option, where the outcome of the risky option depended on whether they had responded correctly on a difficult perceptual-memory task. In some trials, participants played to gain points; on others, they played to avoid losing points. In two studies, we observed the following pattern of results. 1) Participants risked less on gain trials than on loss trials. 2) This difference in risk taking persisted (carried over) when the domain changed from gains to losses and vice versa (with the effect of experiencing losses first being stronger than the effect of experiencing gains first). 3) There was no analogous carryover effect on responses to a delay discounting measure, but there was a carryover effect on responses on a risk attitude measure. We compare these results with those from other recent studies and discuss various ways of explaining them.

Relationship Between Personal Debt Arrears and Risk Attitude– Cross Country Evidence

Purpose: The paper's objective is to compare differences between people from four European countries in terms of however having or never having debt difficulty is related to risk attitude. Design/Methodology/Purpose: This paper aims to check however having or never having debt arrears is related to risk attitude. The hypothesis put forward is that independently of country, people who have never been in debt arrears are less risk-seeking than people who have ever had arrears; however, the differences in risk aversion between indebted and not indebted individuals are not equal among the nationalities examined. Findings: The hypothesis advanced was confirmed. It can be observed that people who have never had debt arrears are more risk-averse in most cases. In each country, the group of respondents with problems repaying debt rated themselves higher in terms of being a risk-taker and more open to risk than other people. However, the ratings differed in their levels across the different countries. Moreover, in each country, people with debt arrears when asked to give someone advice on investment were more likely to choose the risky option, but the percentages differed among countries. Practical Implications: Present and past debtors are not the same in terms of risk attitude, and sometimes even past debtors resemble more non-debtors in risky behavior Originality: The article results from a large-scale survey (the smallest sample consisted of 802 subjects, the biggest of 1200) conducted in Spain, Italy, Poland, and Romania regarding the emergence of overdue debt.

DETERMINANTS AND RISK-TAKING BEHAVIOUR OF OUTSOURCING INNOVATION DECISION AND INTENSITY IN VIETNAM: MAKE, PURE OR HYBRID?

This study investigates determinants and risk-taking behaviour of outsourcing innovation decision as well as the intensity in Vietnam. Outsourcing decision consists of an exclusive make (Make), buy (Pure) or a combination of both internal and external knowledge acquisition (Hybrid) in the innovation strategies. We also define outsourcing innovation intensity as the proportion of costs used for outsourcing innovation. We distinguish these outsourcing strategies in relation to product and process innovation. Based on the unique survey data in Vietnam available in 2016, we highlight the importance of the firm-specific factors such as R&D intensity, exporting status, and share of qualified employees dedicated to R&D activities; the firms’ obstacles and objectives for innovation; and the information sources of innovation on the outsourcing innovation decision and intensity. The other striking finding is that outsourcing innovation is risk-taking behaviour, but outsourcing product innovation strategy is a less risky option as compared to the outsourcing process innovation in the case of Vietnamese enterprises.

The effects of optimism on self-framing and risky decision making

The framing effect is a key topic that has been insufficiently studied in research on behavioral decision making. In our study we explored the effects of optimism on self-framing and risky decision making. Participants were 416 undergraduates who responded to the Life Orientation Test and a self-framing test based on the Asian disease problem. The results demonstrate that, compared with people low in optimism, highly optimistic individuals tended to use more positive words to describe problems, generate more positive frames, and choose more risky options. There was also a significant self-framing effect: Participants with a negative frame tended to be risk-seeking, whereas those with a positive frame tended to avoid risks. Additionally, selfframing suppressed the effect of optimism on risky decision making. We can conclude that optimism has significant effects on self-framing and risky decision making.

Balloon-expandable prosthesis for open mitral replacement with a calcified mitral annulus

In presence of a heavily calcified mitral apparatus, mitral valve replacement may represent a challenging surgical intervention. The risk of injury to the atrioventricular groove is high and the success rate of its consequent repair is very low. Nevertheless, a symptomatic patient affected by severe mitral stenosis, especially when balloon commissurotomy is not indicated, should not be left untreated. Mitral decalcification represents a risky option, but an apparently simpler and safer solution can be an open-heart positioning of an inverted aortic balloon-expandable aortic prosthesis.

Kindling of the basolateral or central nucleus of the amygdala increases suboptimal choice in a rat gambling task and increases motor impulsivity in risk-preferring animals

Impairments in decision making under uncertainty, as measured by the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), are observed in persons suffering from temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE), in which seizures originate in the amygdala and hippocampal formations. Gambling disorder is also more prevalent in this population. Individuals with amygdala damage show similar deficits in decision-making, as do rats with lesions restricted to the basolateral amygdala (BLA) performing an analogous rat gambling task (rGT), yet whether hyperstimulation of the BLA impacts risky decision-making has yet to be demonstrated. We therefore investigated whether kindling of the BLA affected rGT performance. In this task, sugar pellet profits are maximised through consistent selection of options associated with smaller per-trial gains but shorter punishing time-outs. Just as in the IGT, subjects must avoid the risky options, as penalties are disproportionately high despite the higher reward available. Most rats adopt the optimal strategy, but some instead make high numbers of risky, disadvantageous choices. Once stable choice preferences had been established on-task, sixteen male Long Evans rats were implanted unilaterally with a bipolar electrode targeting the BLA and stimulated twice daily until three stage five seizures had been elicited. The electrodes revealed to be nearly evenly places in the BLA and the Central Nucleus of the Amygdala (CeA). Kindling transiently increased choice of the option paired with the smallest reward but also the lowest level of punishment- a risk-averse, but suboptimal, choice. Risk-preferring rats also made more premature responses, a marker of motor impulsivity, and were faster to make a choice, whereas these variables were unaffected in optimal decision-makers. These data suggest epileptiform activity originating within the amygdala can impair choice and promote impulsivity, at least in some individuals.

Differential effects of glutamate N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor antagonists on risky choice as assessed in the risky decision task.

Risky choice can be measured using the risky decision task (RDT). In the RDT, animals choose between a large, risky option that is paired with probabilistic foot shock and a small, safe option that is never paired with shock. To date, studies examining the neurochemical basis of decision-making in the RDT have focused primarily on the dopaminergic system but have not focused on the glutamatergic system, which has been implicated in risky decision-making. Because glutamate is known to play a critical role in decision-making, we wanted to determine the contribution of the glutamatergic system to performance in the RDT. In the experiment, 32 rats (16 male; 16 female) were tested in the RDT. The probability of receiving a foot shock increased across the session (ascending schedule) for half of the rats but decreased across the session (descending schedule) for half of the rats. Following training, rats received injections of the N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptor competitive antagonist CGS 19755 (0, 1.0, 2.5, 5.0mg/kg; s.c.) and the GluN2B-selective antagonist Ro 63-1908 (0, 0.1, 0.3, 1.0mg/kg; s.c.). CGS 19755 (2.5 and 5.0mg/kg) increased risky choice in males and females trained on the ascending schedule. Ro 63-1908 (1.0mg/kg) decreased risky choice, but only in male rats trained on the ascending schedule. Although NMDA receptor antagonists differentially alter risky choice in the RDT, the current results show that NMDA receptors are an important mediator of decision-making involving probabilistic delivery of positive punishment.

Age differences in risk attitude are shaped by option complexity.

The canonical conclusion from research on age differences in risky choice is that older adults are more risk averse than younger adults, at least in choices involving gains. Most of the evidence for this conclusion derives from studies that used a specific type of choice problem: choices between a safe and a risky option. However, safe and risky options differ not only in the degree of risk but also in the amount of information to be processed-that is, in their complexity. In both an online and a lab experiment, we demonstrate that differences in option complexity can be a key driver of age differences in risk attitude. When the complexity of the safe option is increased, older adults no longer seem more risk averse than younger adults (in gains). Using computational modeling, we test mechanisms that potentially underlie the effect of option complexity. The results show that participants are not simply averse to complexity, and that increasing the complexity of safe options does more than simply make responses more noisy. Rather, differences in option complexity affect the processing of attribute information: whereas the availability of a simple safe option is associated with the distortion of probability weighting and lower outcome sensitivity, these effects are attenuated when both options are more similar in complexity. We also dissociate these effects of option complexity from an effect of certainty. Our findings may also have implications for age differences in other decision phenomena (e.g., framing effect, loss aversion, immediacy effect). (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Risky choice frames shift the structure and emotional valence of internal arguments: A query theory account of the unusual disease problem

AbstractWe examine a Query Theory account of risky choice framing effects — when risky choices are framed as a gain, people are generally risky averse but, when an equivalent choice is framed as a loss, people are risk seeking. Consistent with Query Theory, frames affected the structure of participants’ arguments: gain frame participants listed arguments favoring the certain option earlier and more often than loss frame participants. These argumentative shifts mediated framing effects; manipulating participants initial arguments attenuated them. While emotions, as measured by PANAS, were related to frames but not related to choices, an exploratory text analysis of the affective valence of arguments was related to both. Compared to loss-frame participants, gain-frame participants expressed more positive sentiment towards the certain option than the risky option. Thisrelative-sentiment indexpredicted choices by itself but not when included with structure of arguments. Further, manipulated initial arguments did not significantly affect participant’s relative sentiment. Prior to changing choices, risky choice frames alter both the structure and emotional valence of participants’ internal arguments.

Basal Testosterone Renders Individuals More Receptive to Minority Positions

Social influence is an inevitable part of human social interaction. Although past research has demonstrated that testosterone has a key role in social interaction, no study has examined its role in social influence so far. Building on previous research showing that minority positions are perceived as risky options and that testosterone is positively associated with status seeking and risk-taking, we hypothesized that basal testosterone renders individuals more receptive to minority positions. In two studies, participants (total N = 250) read messages that were supported by either a numerical majority or minority. As hypothesized, individuals’ levels of basal testosterone were positively related to susceptibility to minority influence. In contrast, susceptibility to majority influence was unaffected by basal testosterone. Given the importance of minorities for innovation and change within societies, our results suggest that individuals with high levels of testosterone may play an important role as catalysts of social change.

Intrathecal baclofen pump replacements under local anaesthetic: rapid pathway implementation under COVID-19

Intrathecal baclofen pump replacements under local anaesthetic: rapid pathway implementation under COVID-19

Inflammatory Manifestations of Systemic Diseases in the Central Nervous System.

Purpose of ReviewThis review presents the current recommended therapeutic interventions for inflammatory disease in the central nervous system (CNS) secondary to systemic diseases of immune dysregulation. Treatment recommendations for CNS inflammation associated with rheumatologic conditions, immune-related adverse effects from immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), and demyelinating disease from tumor necrosis factor-α (anti-TNFs) are explored. Additional therapeutic options for inflammation related to postviral syndromes and genetic immunodeficiencies are also discussed.Recent FindingsIn addition to treatment of mild, moderate, and severe CNS rheumatologic disease as guided by the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR), early consideration of rituximab for severe IgG4-related disease and induction with anti-TNF therapy for severe neurosarcoidosis should be considered. Although often not first line, treatment options for CNS inflammatory diseases based on disease mechanism are emerging, including tocilizumab for Behcet’s disease, natalizumab for ICI associated autoimmune encephalitis, and abatacept for treatment of infiltrative disease secondary to CTLA-4 deficiency. Hematopoietic stem cell treatments represent highly efficacious but risky options for autoimmunity related to genetic immunodeficiency.SummaryWhile early high dose steroids remains first line therapy for most CNS inflammatory conditions, a rapidly expanding arsenal of immune targeted therapies offers clinicians tailored disease specific options for treatment.

Ambiguity aversion and experiential learning: implications for long-term savings decisions

PurposeThis paper evaluates potential methods for reducing ambiguity surrounding returns on equity to improve long-term savings decisions.Design/methodology/approachWe evaluate 221 undergraduate students in the US and first assess the degree of ambiguity aversion exhibited by individuals in the sample population as they decide between a risky (known probability) option and ambiguous (unknown probability) option pertaining to their chances of winning $0 or $1 in a hypothetical lottery. Similarly, we test whether sampling historical return data through learning modules influences long-term decision making regarding asset allocation within a retirement portfolio.FindingsAllowing participants to experience the underlying probability through sampling significantly influences behavior, as participants were more likely to select the ambiguous option after sampling. Here, we also find that participants who receive interactive learning modules – which require users to manually alter the asset allocation to produce a sample of historical return data based on the specific allocation entered in the model – increase their post-learning equity allocations by 10.1% more than individuals receiving static modules. Interestingly, we find no significant evidence of ambiguity aversion playing a role in the asset allocation decision.Originality/valueWe find that decision-making related to ambiguous and risky options can be substantially influenced by experiential learning. Our study supplements previous literature, providing a link between research on the effect of ambiguity on stock market participation and implementation of educational programs to improve the asset allocation decision for young adults.

Expected value and sensitivity to punishment modulate insular cortex activity during risky decision making

The exact contribution of the insula to risky decision making remains unclear, as are the specific outcome parameters and inter-individual characteristics that modulate insular activity prior to a risky choice. This fMRI study examines the contributions of outcome valence, magnitude, probability, and expected value (EV) to insular activity during risky decision making, and explores the influence of sensitivity to reward and to punishment, and anxiety, to insular activity. Participants (N = 31) performed a gambling task requiring choice between two roulettes with different outcome magnitude, probability and EV, under gain and loss conditions separately, and filled questionnaires assessing sensitivity to punishment/reward, and state/trait anxiety. Parametric analyses were conducted to examine the modulation of brain activity during decision making in relation to each task parameter. Correlations were examined between insular activity and psychometric questionnaires. EV of the selected roulette was associated with right posterior insula activation during decision making. Higher sensitivity to punishment was associated with lower bilateral insular activation. These findings suggest that the right posterior insula is involved in tracking the EV of a risky option during decision making. The involvement of the insula when making risky decisions also appears to be influenced by inter-individual differences in sensitivity to punishment.