Risky Gambling Research Articles

Neurocognitive underpinnings of cross-cultural differences in risky decision making.

Culture permeates across human mind and behavior. Cultural influence is reported even in economic decision making, which involves basic cognitive process, once believed to be invariant across all humans. The current study investigated the neurocognitive processes underlying economic decision making in East Asians and European Americans, with an aim to understand the cross-cultural differences in the discrete mental processes of decision making. Participants performed a risky gambling task that captures the gain maximizing and loss minimizing strategies, while electroencephalography was simultaneously collected. Event-related potentials (ERPs) associated with spontaneous emotional arousal (P2) and effortful attentional allocation (P3) were examined to determine the cultural effects on mental processes during pre-decisional and post-decisional stages. Behaviorally, Americans showed greater loss minimization than Asians. ERPs demonstrated significant cultural differences during post-decisional evaluation of outcomes, but not during pre-decisional processes. In Asians’, ERP associated with emotional arousal (P2) was strongly modulated by gains, while in Americans’, ERP associated with attentional allocation (P3) was strongly modulated by losses. These results suggest that Americans make conscious efforts to be self-reliant when facing financial losses, whereas Asians are more emotionally aroused by financial gains, which invites a refinement to the current theoretical propositions about cultural influence on decision making.

Impulsiveness and cyclothymic traits of affective temperament as predictors of risky gambling behavior.

To investigate bipolar traits and impulsiveness in pathological gamblers, compared to non-pathological gamblers and non-gambling general population. To investigate interaction between traits of affective temperament, impulsiveness and the severity of pathological gambling. 139 participants (63 women, 76 men; mean age: 30.32; SD = 10.69) were included in the study. The Barratt Impulsiveness Scale was used to evaluate impulsiveness and the Temperament Evaluation of Memphis, Pisa and San Diego Autoquestionnaire was used to evaluate affective temperamental traits. The participants were also screened for bipolar affective disorder spectrum using the Mood Disorder Questionnaire and the Hypomania Checklist-32.The Canadian Problem Gambling Index (CPGI) was used to evaluate the severity of pathologicalgambling in the assessed population. Polish versions of the questionnaires were filled out anonymously via the internet. Pathological gamblers (N =36) scored higher on ‛Motor impulsiveness', ‛Cyclothymic'and ‛Irritability'subscales versus non-pathological gamblers (N =61) and non-gamblers (N = 42). Cyclothymic and motor impulsiveness significantly predicted CPGI scores. Motor impulsiveness was found to moderate the influence of cyclothymic affective temperamental traits on pathological gambling. Our data support prior reports of higher impulsivity traits and traits from the bipolar spectrum among pathological gamblers. The results indicate that the influence of affective temperamental traits on pathological gambling severity is moderated by impulsiveness.

Common and distinct electrophysiological correlates of feedback processing during risky and ambiguous decision making

Risk and ambiguity are two fundamental parameters in decision making, and it remains elusive whether they are dissociable at the neural level. The current EEG study examined the ERP and oscillatory correlates of neural feedback processing under risky and ambiguous decision making. Participants performed a wheel-of-fortune task and received either gain or nongain feedback following risky or ambiguous gambles while their EEG was recorded. Results revealed that the early, obligatory detection of reward information was not dependent on the nature of the previous gamble, which was reflected by the reward positivity. However, risky gambling seemed to elicit an enhanced cognitive control signal as indexed by theta oscillation, whereas ambiguous gambling increased the affective and motivational salience during feedback processing as represented by the P3 and delta oscillation. Together, our findings suggest that feedback processing during risky and ambiguous decision making taps into common and distinct electrophysiological correlates.

Do EGMs have a Stronger Association with Problem Gambling than Racing and Casino Table Games? Evidence from a Decade of Australian Prevalence Studies

Although it is often assumed that electronic gaming machines (EGMs) are associated with the highest level of risk, it has proved difficult to find reliable evidence in support of this proposition. In this paper, we analysed statistics from major Australian community prevalence studies for the period 2011-2020 to investigate whether EGMs (in comparison to racing and casino table games) have a stronger association with problem gambling. All prevalence studies reviewed used telephone sampling and the Problem Gambling Severity Index to assess problem gambling. In this paper, we examine the principal hypothesis using several lines of evidence, including whether problem gamblers are more likely to gamble and gamble regularly on EGMs as opposed to racing and casino games and if the EGM-problem gambling association was maintained after controlling for other forms of participation. Results showed that of all gambling activities, EGMs do appear to have the strongest association with problem gambling. Despite having a disproportionately higher level of participation on racing and casino games as compared with other gamblers, problem gamblers are more likely to report regular or weekly participation in EGM gambling and this may be the reason why this activity emerges most strongly as a predictor of problem gambling in multivariate models. This finding is particularly salient, given the very high prevalence of EGM participation, compared to other risky gambling forms. The findings underscore the importance of survey reporting that presents results in a form that can inform policy relevant research relating to the potential impact of different gambling activities.

Interface predictability changes betting behavior in computerized gambling

Recent development in human-computer interfaces (HCIs) including electronic gaming machines and online gambling has exposed novices to the risks of gambling-related harm. Interface characteristics not only reflect the structure of the game, they also shape users' sense of agency concerning their gambling. Although studies have indicated the importance of causal attribution in risky gambling, the roles of the sense of agency and its largest factor, predictability, remains unclear. Therefore, we assessed the impact of interface predictability on gambling tendencies. Participants played a computerized card-guessing game on two interfaces with distinct visual feedback predictability related to users' card choice operation (i.e., the consistency between the direction of mouse motion and cards). Between these interfaces, we compared participants’ subjective estimation of win probability and their wager history in each trial. Their subjective win probability did not differ between conditions. Intriguingly, participants only decreased their wagers following a loss when the interface was predictable, but not when it was unpredictable. Moreover, the effects of predictability of a “winning run” depended on individual difference in illusory control. This study provides evidence that feeling of agency mediates the impact of interface features on gambling. This may contribute to interface design for a healthy gambling experience.

A Resource-Rational, Process-Level Account of the St. Petersburg Paradox.

The St. Petersburg paradox is a centuries-old philosophical puzzle concerning a lottery with infinite expected payoff for which people are only willing to pay a small amount to play. Despite many attempts and several proposals, no generally accepted resolution is yet at hand. In this work, we present the first resource-rational, process-level explanation of this paradox, demonstrating that it can be accounted for by a variant of normative expected utility valuation which acknowledges cognitive limitations. Specifically, we show that Nobandegani et al.'s (2018) metacognitively rational model, sample-based expected utility (SbEU), can account for major experimental findings on this paradox. Crucially, our resolution is consistent with two empirically well-supported assumptions: (a) People use only a few samples in probabilistic judgments and decision-making, and (b) people tend to overestimate the probability of extreme events in their judgment. Our work seeks to understand the St. Petersburg gamble as a particularly risky gamble whose process-level explanation is consistent with a broader process-level model of human decision-making under risk.

Encouraging Gamblers to Think Critically Using Generalised Analytical Priming is Ineffective at Reducing Gambling Biases.

Gambling has been associated with an array of fallacious beliefs that foster risky gambling decisions. Research into other belief systems suggests that the endorsement of non-evidence based beliefs, such as the paranormal or conspiracy theories, can be reduced when people think more analytically. The purpose of this study was to explore whether an intervention designed to elicit analytical thinking was effective in altering the gambling beliefs and simulated gambling behaviour of 178 regular electronic gaming machine (EGM) gamblers (102 males, 76 female). Participants were randomly allocated to complete either an analytic or a neutral priming task, followed by completion of belief measures (erroneous and protective) and play on a simulated EGM game. Results failed to show that priming for analytical thinking changed betting on an EGM; including features of bet size, bet change, persistence and theoretical losses. Contrary to expectations, results suggest that priming analytical thinking using generalised interventions does not appear to be effective in altering peoples' simulated gambling involvement or gambling beliefs. In fact, priming people to think more critically might be counterproductive by contributing to greater positive expectations about gambling outcomes. The results further suggested that the number of times a player alters their bet is a good indicator of theoretical gambling losses and is associated with irrational gambling cognitions. Interventions designed to promote safer thinking in gamblers should be implemented with care, as results from our study suggest that encouraging critical thinking in at-risk or problem gamblers may not be effective in reducing risky gambling.

Risk‐taking increases under boredom

AbstractWe examined if boredom is associated with risk‐taking. Although this association has frequently been postulated, it has rarely been tested, and the evidence has thus far been rather indirect and speculative. We conducted three studies to test this association more systematically. In Study 1, people high in boredom proneness reported greater risk‐taking across financial, ethical, recreational, and health or safety domains. In Study 2, over a series of risky decisions, risk‐taking increased in tandem with state boredom. Consistently, in Study 3, people who felt more bored were more likely to choose risky gambles. Furthermore, while dispositional self‐control predicted lower risk‐taking, state boredom nullified this association, suggesting that elevated risk‐taking might be attributed the erosion of self‐control under boredom. Our findings establish via direct empirical tests that boredom is associated with making riskier decisions.

Trajectories of Social and Economic Outcomes and Problem Gambling Risk in Australia

While there are many cross-sectional studies that provide data on gambling behaviour and the characteristics of those who gamble, there are few large-scale population based longitudinal studies of gambling. This is a serious limitation. It is increasingly being recognised that longitudinal data is required to properly understand gambling behaviour, trajectories, risks and consequences. This paper makes use of a large-scale longitudinal survey that includes questions on gambling behaviour in Australia: the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey. Although the HILDA survey currently provides data on gambling at a single point in time in 2015, there are data on the individuals, in the majority of cases, back to 2001. This paper analyses the trajectories of a range of social, health and economic outcomes according to self-reported risk of experiencing gambling related problems. The analysis clearly shows that problem gamblers experience significantly worse outcomes than those without gambling problems, and poor outcomes go back a number of years. In a number of cases, outcomes are becoming progressively poorer, which may suggest either increasingly risky gambling behaviour or the cumulative effects of a sustained period of gambling problems. The long-term nature of the poor health and social outcomes experienced by problem gamblers strongly suggests that programs designed to address gambling problems will have to be cognisant of, and address these underlying issues. Effective treatment is thus likely to be long-term and challenging. It also suggests that restricting access to gambling via mechanisms such as pre-commitment or self-exclusion will be effective.

The Costs of Autonomy: Decisional Autonomy Undermines Advisees' Judgements of Experts

Over the past several decades, the United States medical system has increasingly prioritized patient autonomy. Doctors routinely encourage patients to come to their own decisions about their medical care, rather than providing patients with clearer, yet more paternalistic, advice. Although political theorists, bioethicists, and philosophers generally see this as a positive trend, the present research examines the important question of how patients, and decision-makers in general, react to full decisional autonomy when making decisions under uncertainty. Across 6 experiments (N = 3,261) we find that advisers who give advisees decisional autonomy, rather than providing more paternalistic advice, are judged to be less competent and less helpful. As a result, advisees are less likely to return to and recommend these advisers, and pay them lower wages. Importantly, we also demonstrate that advisers do not anticipate these effects. We document these results in a variety of domains (including medical, financial, and managerial advice, as well as advice about risky gambles) using both hypothetical scenarios and incentive- compatible paradigms. We find that the preference for paternalistic advice holds when both paternalistic and autonomy- oriented advice are accompanied by detailed information and expert guidance, and that the preference for paternalism holds regardless of the positivity or negativity of the outcome associated with the advice. Finally, we show that experiencing decision difficulty is a necessary condition for our effects. These results deepen our understanding of preferences for autonomy and paternalism, and challenge the benefits of recently adopted practices in medical decision-making that prioritize full decisional autonomy.

Forward inference in risky choice: Mapping gaze and decision processes

AbstractThe study of cognitive processes is built on a close mapping between three components: overt gaze behavior, overt choice, and covert processes. To validate this overt–covert mapping in the domain of decision‐making, we collected eye‐movement data during decisions between risky gamble problems. Applying a forward inference paradigm, participants were instructed to use specific decision strategies to solve those gamble problems (maximizing expected values or applying different choice heuristics) during which gaze behavior was recorded. We revealed differences between overt behavior, as indicated by eye movements, and covert decision processes, instructed by the experimenter. However, our results show that the overt–covert mapping is for some eye‐movement measures not as close as expected by current decision theory, and hence question reverse inference as being prone to fallacies due to a violation of its prerequisite, that is, a close overt–covert mapping. We propose a framework to rehabilitate reverse inference.

Television gambling advertisements: Extent and content of gambling advertisements with a focus on potential high-risk commercial messages

BackgroundIn problem gambling, recent years have seen an expansion of online gambling in treatment-seeking patients. Television advertising may promote risky gambling, and this study aimed to assess gambling-related advertisements, with respect to potentially risky messages, in a country with high rates of online gambling among treatment seekers, for online casino particularly in treatment-seeking women. MethodsA total of 144 h in six commercial television channels were studied with respect to frequency, extent and content of gambling-related advertisements, which were analyzed with respect to potentially risky messages and specific target groups, and compared with respect to legal status of gambling companies and for online casino gambling vs other gambling types. Aspects to analyze were elected theoretically and based on acceptable inter-rater agreement between the authors. ResultsNineteen percent (11–28% across different channels) of advertisements promoted gambling, with online casino being by far the most common type of gambling exposed. Messages promoting ease to gamble (including bonuses and rapid cash-out messages) and a female focus were significantly more common in online casino gambling and in non-licensed companies, whereas sports-related messages were more common in licensed companies. Gambling-related advertisements were also common in relation to family movies, and appeared even during children's programs. ConclusionsOnline casino was by far the most common type of televised gambling advertisements. Several risky messages were identified, and female gender, as well as messages promoting the rapidity and facility of gambling, were more commonly addressed by online casino companies. Public health aspects are discussed.

Deviation from religious trading norms

This paper investigates whether religiosity influences the preference of institutional investors to hold lottery-type stocks. We use data from Kuwait, which is characterized by a high level of religiosity, clearly defined investing Islamic religious rules and clear identification of the institutional investor’s religious identity. We find that Islamic institutional investors deviate from their religious norms by holding more lottery-type stocks than non-Islamic institutional investors, and this deviation may be explained by the evidence that Islamic institutional investors have stronger information signals to induce them to trade risky gambling stocks. Our results highlight a challenge for the regulators and Islamic Shariah auditors in countries that have Islamic institutions; namely, to ensure that the operations of Islamic institutions are free from prohibited excessive uncertainty (Gharar).

Foreign Support, Miscalculation, and Conflict Escalation: Iraqi Kurdish Self-Determination in Perspective

How does foreign support for separatists influence conflict escalation with the central government? What types of miscalculations over foreign support encourage separatists to take risky gambles and lead to surprising losses? Existing research indicates that armed non-state actors may initiate or escalate conflict with the central government when existing or anticipated gains in foreign support favorably alters their likelihood for success. This article sheds light on an additional but equally important catalyst for conflict escalation: rebel, or separatist, beliefs about net losses of foreign support in their gamble for more autonomy. Even if groups have perfect information on potential gains in foreign support, miscalculations over potential losses can also lead to risky gambles. To illustrate the distinction between separatist miscalculations over gains and losses in foreign support, this paper compares two episodes of Iraqi Kurdish escalation: the 1991 uprising against Saddam Hussein in the aftermath of the Gulf War, and the 2017 independence referendum after three years of war against the Islamic State. While the former case is a classic example of escalation based on miscalculating gains in foreign support, the latter case represents a miscalculation over potential losses of foreign support in response to the vote.

Alcohol intake can reduce gambling behavior.

Prolonged and risky gambling can have negative consequences financially and in health (e.g., developing an addiction). As gambling frequently occurs together with alcohol intake, we investigated whether we could reduce persistent and risky gambling under the influence of alcohol. Specifically, following alcohol myopia theory (Steele & Josephs, 1990), stating that intoxicated people's behavior is disproportionally guided by salient cues, we propose that making low chances of winning salient in a gambling situation should reduce persistent and risky gambling in alcohol intoxicated participants. In 3 laboratory studies, participants either consumed alcohol or a placebo. We made low chances of winning salient (vs. not) by explicitly displaying the low chances in large letters. Making low chances salient led intoxicated participants to gamble less persistently on a computerized slot machine (Study 1 and 2) and with less risk in a lottery game (Study 3) compared with sober participants and compared with sober and intoxicated participants in a control condition in which low chances were not salient. Moreover, using eye-tracking in Study 3, we found that the effect of alcohol on less risky gambling was mediated by intoxicated participants' greater attention to the salient low chances. Finally, we replicated the findings from our laboratory studies in the field: When low chances were made salient, the more alcohol bar patrons had consumed, the less persistently they gambled on a slot machine (Study 4). The findings have applied implications for reducing excessive gambling under the influence of alcohol by making low chances salient on games of chance. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Importing Branch Campuses to Advance Egypt’s Development

As Egypt seeks to reposition itself in the international community, one strategy it has adopted is to import academic capital from other countries to bolster its own higher education system and enhance its internationalization efforts. Increasing demand for higher education and vocal government support may be alluring to potential partners; but repressive government policies and an uncertain political environment may make it a risky gamble for foreign universities.

Importing Branch Campuses to Advance Egypt’s Development

As Egypt seeks to reposition itself in the international community, one strategy it has adopted is to import academic capital from other countries to bolster its own higher education system and enhance its internationalization efforts. Increasing demand for higher education and vocal government support may be alluring to potential partners; but repressive government policies and an uncertain political environment may make it a risky gamble for foreign universities.

Framing of online risk: Young adults’ and adolescents’ representations of risky gambles.

Framing of online risk: Young adults’ and adolescents’ representations of risky gambles.

Executive function in high-functioning autism: Decision-making consistency as a characteristic gambling behaviour

Restricted and repetitive patterns of behaviours, interests, or activities are a critical diagnostic criterion for autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Previous studies using gambling paradigms with ASD populations have identified that, unlike typically developed control participants, people with a diagnosis of ASD tend to maintain particular response patterns regardless of the magnitude of potential outcomes to uncertain gains or losses. Here we designed a gambling test that permitted calculation of the response consistency in gambling choices in situations that presented varying expected outcomes in terms of gains or losses. The task was administered to 33 adults with a diagnosis of ASDs and compared to a group of 47 typically-developed (TD) control participants who were matched for age and IQ. When presented with choices where participants could either make a risky gamble or a safe choice in terms of gains or losses (e.g., 20% chance of winning £5 vs. 100% chance of winning £1), the ASD participants did not differ from the TDs in their overall risk-taking behaviour. However, they were more consistent in their individual choices from trial to trial. Furthermore, the proportion of participants who either implemented an invariate response strategy (e.g., either always choosing the most risky or most “safe” option) was significantly higher in the ASD group compared with the controls. Additionally, while the ASD group were slower to make their responses in the win frame and the first half of the lose frame, by the end of the task their decision times were the same as the TD controls. These findings suggest that the ASD tendency towards repetitive behaviour may demonstrate itself even in high-level decision-making tasks, which needs to be understood if we are to be sure what such tasks are measuring.

Endowment Effects in the Field: Evidence from India’s IPO Lotteries

We study a unique field experiment in India in which 1.5 million stock investors face lotteries for the random allocation of shares. We find that the winners of these randomly assigned initial public offering (IPO) lottery shares are significantly more likely to hold them than lottery losers 1, 6, and even 24 months after the random allocation. This finding strongly evokes laboratory findings of an “endowment effect” for risky gambles, and persists in samples of highly active investors, suggesting along with additional evidence that this behaviour is not driven by inertia alone. The effect decreases as experience in the IPO market increases, but remains even for very experienced investors. Leading theories of the endowment effect based on reference-dependent preferences are unable to fully explain these and other findings in the data.