Risky Gambling Research Articles

Who can predict farmers’ choices in risky gambles?

Abstract Risk is a pervasive factor in agriculture and a subject of great interest to agricultural economists. However, there is a lack of comprehensive understanding of the knowledge held by farm advisors, students, and economists with regards to farmers’ risk preferences. Misconceptions about farmers’ willingness to take risks could lead to misguided advice. This study builds upon a recent multinational endeavor that employed a multiple price list to assess risk preferences among European farmers. We expand this research by gathering predictions for farmers’ risk preferences from 561 farm advisors, students, and economists. Our objectives are threefold: firstly, we explore variations as to how accurately participants can predict risk preferences in different specializations; secondly, we compare the predictive accuracy of different groups of forecasters; and thirdly, we assess whether modifying incentive mechanisms can improve the accuracy of predictions. Whereas our findings reveal substantial variation in individual predictions, the averages closely align with the observed responses of farmers. Notably, the most accurate predictions were provided by a sample of experimental economics researchers. Furthermore,predictions for different production systems exhibit minimal disparities. Introducing incentive schemes, such as a tournament structure, where the best prediction receives a reward, or a high-accuracy system, where randomly selected participants are compensated for the accuracy of their predictions, does not significantly impact accuracy. Further research and exploration are needed to identify the most reliable sources of advice for farmers.

The Zero Effect: An Eye‐Tracking Study of Affect and Motivation in Risky Choices

ABSTRACTDecision makers often prefer safe wins over risky gambles, even if the latter promise higher payoffs than the former. One mechanism that explains this choice pattern is the certainty effect, whereby probabilities of 0 and 1 are interpreted accurately but intermediate probabilities are distorted by diminishing sensitivity. We tested an alternative explanation that was recently proposed, the idea that people would be motivated by avoiding zero outcomes rather than being attracted to sure gains. This zero‐outcome aversion in gain‐domain choices was called the zero effect. By analogy, we proposed that decision makers would approach zero outcomes in the loss domain. Two eye‐tracking experiments investigated visual attention as a key component of the zero effect in the gain domain (Experiment 1) and the loss domain (Experiment 2). Choices were consistent with the zero effect. In the gain domain, gambles were chosen less frequently if they included a zero outcome. In contrast, zero‐outcome gambles were chosen more frequently in the loss domain. Eye movements and pupillometry indicated that zero outcomes in both domains (a) were less frequently fixated than other outcomes and (b) were associated with increased arousal. We concluded that domain‐specific affective responses to zero outcomes aligned with approach/avoidance motivation. These distinct motivations in turn biased information search and choice behavior.

Cooperation in a non-ergodic world on a network - insurance and beyond.

Cooperation between individuals is emergent in all parts of society; yet, mechanistic reasons for this emergence are ill understood in the literature. A specific example of this is insurance. Recent work has, though, shown that assuming the risk individuals face is proportional to their wealth and optimizing the time average growth rate rather than the ensemble average results in a non-zero-sum game, where both parties benefit from cooperation through insurance contracts. In a recent paper, Peters and Skjold present a simple agent-based model and show how, over time, agents that enter into such cooperatives outperform agents that do not. Here, we extend this work by restricting the possible connections between agents via a lattice network. Under these restrictions, we still find that all agents profit from cooperating through insurance. We, though, further find that clusters of poor and rich agents emerge endogenously on the two-dimensional map and that wealth inequalities persist for a long duration, consistent with the phenomenon known as the poverty trap. By tuning the parameters that control the risk levels, we simulate both highly advantageous and extremely risky gambles and show that despite the qualitative shift in the type of risk, the findings are consistent.

Risky mindset: prior exposure to risk increases utilitarian choices in sacrificial moral scenarios

Evidence of cross-domain spillover into the moral domain has been limited to altruistic and consumption behaviors. Building on the literature on spillover effects and domain-general decision processes, we predicted that choice behavior in the economic domain would affect subsequent choices in sacrificial moral dilemmas. We tested this prediction using hypothetical risky gambles and vignettes for moral dilemmas. We found that prior exposure to risky gambles increased utilitarian responses toward sacrificial moral dilemmas. Mediation analysis suggests that this is due to the spillover of a cost–benefit mindset. This mindset increases the probability of making utilitarian-type choices when faced with moral dilemmas but does not affect moral judgment. These results suggest that moral decisions are susceptible to cross-domain spillover effects. Moral values might get easily traded off in transactional scenarios in which cost–benefit analysis is a dominant decision strategy.

Boundary Conditions for the Positive Skew Bias.

Gambles that involve a large but unlikely gain coupled with a small but likely loss-like a lottery ticket-are known as positively-skewed. There is evidence that people tend to prefer these positively skewed choices, leading to what is called a positive-skew bias. In this study, we attempt to better understand under what conditions people are more drawn toward positively skewed, relative to symmetric, gambles. Based on the animal literature, there is reason to believe that preference for skewed gambles is dependent on the strength of the skew, with a greater preference for more strongly skewed options. In two online studies (Study 1: N = 209; Study 2: N = 210), healthy participants across the lifespan (ages 22-85) made a series of choices between a positively skewed risky gamble and either a certain outcome (Study 1) or risky symmetric gamble (Study 2). Logistic regression analyses revealed that people were more likely to choose moderately- and strongly skewed gambles over certain outcomes, with the exception of when there were large potential losses (Study 1). However, a stronger skewness did not increase preference for positively skewed gambles over symmetric gambles, findings which also may depend on the valence of the expected outcome (Study 2). Taken together, these results suggest that there may be a greater preference for more strongly positively skewed gambles but it 1) is dependent on what other gamble is presented and 2) is most prevalent for positive expected values. Additionally, contrary to previous findings, we did not find strong evidence of an age-related increase in positive skew bias in either study. However, exploratory analyses revealed that decision making strategy and cognitive abilities may play a role.

Individual risk factors and prediction of gambling disorder in online sports bettors - the longitudinal RIGAB study.

While research in online sports betting is dominated by studies using objective player tracking data from providers to identify risky gambling behavior, basicresearch has identified various putative individual risk factors assumed to underlie the development of gambling disorder across all types of gambling. This study aims to examine individual risk factors and their longitudinal clinical relevance in online sports bettors. German online sports bettors (N = 607, Mage = 34, 92% male) from a provider based sample took part in an online survey. The study team randomly preselected customers to be invited. N = 325 (53,45%) of the participants also took part in an online follow-up survey one year later. Crosssectional and longitudinal associations of putative risk factors and DSM-5 gambling disorder in online sports bettors were analyzed. These risk factors include alcohol and tobacco use, impulsivity, difficulties in emotion identification, emotion regulation strategies, comorbid mental disorders and stress. We found more pronounced impulsivity, difficulties in emotion identification, emotion suppression, comorbid mental disorders and stress were cross-sectionally associated with gambling disorder, and longitudinally predicted gambling disorder in online sports bettors (with the exception of emotion suppression). In an overall model only lack of premeditation and perceived helplessness remained significant as predictors for gambling disorder. Online sports bettors with gambling disorder predominantly showed more pronounced risk factors, which were also confirmed longitudinally as relevant for the maintenance of gambling disorder. Risk factors such as impulsivity and stress and appropriate coping mechanisms should consequently be integrated not only into prevention efforts to identify individuals at risk early, but also into intervention efforts to tailor treatment.

Characteristics and prediction of risky gambling behaviour study: A study protocol.

This study protocol describes the RIGAB study, a prospective case-control-study assessing online sports betting behaviour and underlying risk factors for the development of gambling disorder (GD). It has two aims: (1) to characterise sports bettors concerning putative risk factors and their gambling behaviour, and (2) to predict the development of GD from these factors. At baseline, online sports bettors took part in an online survey comprising a GD screening (DSM-5), questions on gambling behaviour and on the putative risk factors emotion regulation, impulsivity, comorbidities, stress, and substance use. Participants were reinvited for a 1-year follow-up online survey. In a nested design, a subsample was invited in-person to take part in a cognitive-behavioural task battery and a clinical interview. Of the initial 6568 online sports bettors invited, 607 participated at baseline (rate: 9.2%), 325 took part in the 1-year follow-up and 54 participated in the nested in-person assessment. The RIGAB study combines different fields of GD studies: player tracking data and putative risk factors from self-report and behavioural tasks. The results of this study will support the development of preventive measures for participants of online gambling based on the combined findings from previously rather distinct research fields.

Changes in some health and lifestyle behaviours are significantly associated with changes in gambling behaviours: Findings from a longitudinal New Zealand population study

Although a large number of studies have investigated associations between risky gambling behaviours and health, lifestyle and social factors, research has not focused on changes in these factors and associations with changes in gambling risk level. This study utilised existing data from the four waves of the longitudinal New Zealand National Gambling Study to examine associations between changes in substance use, mental and physical health, and quality of life and deprivation with changes in gambling risk level over time. A Markov chain transition model was used to perform these analyses using data from participants who had completed all four waves (11,080 data transitions). Although changes in various covariates were associated with changes in all gambling risk levels, the highest number of significant factors was for transitioning into risky gambling from non-problematic gambling, including development, or continuation, of several negative health and lifestyle factors that may possibly be alleviated by transitioning out of risky gambling. These findings highlight the importance of screening for gambling behaviours when assisting people with substance use, health issues, or social situations or conditions in order to provide appropriate and effective social, health and treatment supports for people whose gambling behaviour increases over time.

Does Cooperation with Others Reduce Risky Gambling Behavior?1

AbstractSocial relationships are highly salient for problem gambling. This study investigated the effect of others' presence or cooperation with others on risky gambling behavior among healthy undergraduate students. Based on the findings that individual differences moderate the social facilitation effect and team performance, we also focused on personality traits. A total of 36 participants completed the Game of Dice Task (GDT) in three conditions, within a crossover design: the sole condition (each participant conducted the GDT individually), the parallel condition (each participant conducted the GDT in parallel with another participant), and the cooperation condition (participants conducted the GDT at the same time and were told to consult with each other). Before the experiment, all participants completed the NEO Five Factor Inventory. The results showed no significant differences among the sole, parallel, and cooperation conditions in terms of risky gambling behavior. However, safer gambling behavior in the cooperation condition was significantly and positively correlated with conscientiousness. These findings suggest that a new harm‐reduction strategy focusing on cooperation with others while gambling could be developed.

Associations Between Heavy Episodic Drinking, Drinking While Gambling, and Risky Gambling

Introduction: Understanding how patterns of drinking are associated with risky gambling in Australia is needed to inform an effective approach to minimise harm. Methods: This cross-sectional questionnaire study reports on 2,704 subsampled participants who completed survey questions about their patterns of drinking. With logistic regressions, we examined whether frequency of heavy episodic drinking (HED) and alcohol use while gambling were associated with risky gambling while controlling for sociodemographic variables. Results: Occasional HED and monthly HED were associated with any gambling (versus no gambling), but frequent HED was not significantly associated with gambling. The opposite pattern was found when predicting risky gambling. Occasional HED (i.e. less than monthly) was not significantly associated, but a higher frequency of HED (at least weekly) was associated with a higher likelihood of risky gambling. Drinking alcohol while gambling was associated with risky gambling, over and above HED. The combination of HED and use of alcohol while gambling appeared to significantly increase the likelihood of risky gambling. Conclusions: The association of HED and alcohol use while gambling with risky gambling highlights the importance of preventing heavy alcohol use among gamblers. The links between these forms of drinking and risky gambling further suggests that individuals who engage in both activities are specifically prone to gambling harm. Policies should therefore discourage alcohol use while gambling for example by prohibiting serving alcohol at reduced prices or to gamblers who show signs of being affected by alcohol and informing individuals of the risks associated with alcohol use while gambling.

A daily diary investigation of self-regulation in gambling.

Limit-setting strategies have the potential to assist in reducing problem gambling, but there is little research on self-imposed gambling limits and factors that restrain self-regulation once gambling has been initiated. Using daily diary approach, we investigated individual difference and proximal factors associated with gambling limit violations. Participants were 103 individuals who gambled regularly and had set a goal to limit their gambling. Participants completed a baseline measure of trait self-control and questions about gambling and limit violations over 21 days. We examined factors associated with setting and maintaining limits across episodes of gambling as well as within-person factors associated with limit violations, including the moderating role of trait self-control. We found that episodes of gambling where limits were set and violated were associated with riskier gambling and more negative emotional responses. In addition, gambling limits were more likely to be violated on days when temptations to violate limits were high and by people with low trait self-control, whereas urges to gamble were associated with a reduced likelihood of limit violations. Trait self-control moderated the relationship between daily stress/tension and limit violations. Low stress/tension was associated with greater limit violations for those with lower trait self-control, but the likelihood of violating limits increased on high stress days for those with higher trait self-control. Individuals may benefit from greater awareness of temptations to violate gambling limits and the impact of daily stressors, particularly for those with high trait self-control who are most successful when stress/tension is low. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

To Mars and Beyond: Engineering Life as a Moral Duty

To Mars and Beyond: Engineering Life as a Moral Duty

The Certainty Effect for Gains and Losses Emerges in Joint Evaluation but Not Always in Separate Evaluation

Abstract Six studies investigated people's attitudes toward uncertainty. Participants rated the attractiveness of pairs of gambles in either a gain or a loss frame. We varied the level of uncertainty, the monetary outcomes, and the evaluation mode of the gambles (i.e., joint versus separate evaluation). Experiments 1a and 1b compared a sure gain (loss) to a risky gain (loss), with both gambles having identical expected value. Experiments 2a and 2b included an almost sure (i.e., 98%) gain (loss) and risky gain (loss). When gambles entailed gains, a risky gamble became less attractive when evaluated in joint than in separate evaluation. The opposite pattern emerged when gambles entailed losses. The difference between a risky and a sure (or almost sure) gamble was weaker (or eliminated) in separate evaluation. Experiments 3a and 3b presented a risky gamble alone or with other gambles with varying probability and outcomes to be gained or lost. When gambles entailed gains (losses), a risky gamble became less (more) attractive and was chosen less (more) frequently when paired with gambles offering a higher probability of gaining (losing) smaller amounts. Overall, affective reactions and preferences for uncertain gambles depend on the decision context, and the certainty effect can disappear in separate evaluation.

Social Connectedness and Associations with Gambling Risk in New Zealand

Multiple factors are associated with disordered gambling, with some populations having a greater risk for developing disordered gambling than others. The present study, utilising data previously collected for a New Zealand (NZ) national gambling survey, explored the associations of social connectedness and leisure activities with risky gambling behaviour and quality of life. Poorer social connectedness and leisure activities were found to be associated with increased gambling risk and poorer quality of life, respectively. Social connectedness and leisure activities strongly predicted type of gambling activities and quality of life. Furthermore, Māori (NZ's indigenous population) had lower social connectedness and fewer leisure activities, and a greater gambling risk, as well as higher psychological distress, than the NZ European/Other population. These findings indicate that the risk of progressing from recreational gambling to risky gambling is relatively higher for Māori, and that social connectedness and leisure activities could be contributing factors for this increased risk. It is, therefore, important that social connectedness and leisure activities are seriously considered in public health and treatment efforts to reduce gambling harm for vulnerable populations.

Resolving ambiguity as a public good: experimental evidence from Guyana

Incomplete information is a commonly cited barrier to the adoption of new innovations. We present a decision-making experiment, conducted with farmers in the field, that explores the extent to which information which reduces ambiguity may be provided as a public good. In the experiment, participants make a series of decisions between a risky gamble and an ambiguous gamble. An initial private decision is followed by second choice in which participants know that their chosen gambles and outcomes will be publicly but anonymously revealed. Selection of the ambiguous option in this decision thus provide public good information which can be used to update beliefs about the ambiguous gamble. After the public revelation, participants make one final choice between the two options which we use to assess learning. We also test communication as a mechanism to increase provision of the public good. We find evidence that people with preference to avoid ambiguity contribute to public good information while risk averse people free ride. Communication does not affect the overall public good provision, either in a positive or negative direction. Finally, we find that people draw appropriate inference from the information that the public good provides. We relate our findings to the issue of new technology adoption in agriculture which is of particular importance for our participants.

A neuronal prospect theory model in the brain reward circuitry

Prospect theory, arguably the most prominent theory of choice, is an obvious candidate for neural valuation models. How the activity of individual neurons, a possible computational unit, obeys prospect theory remains unknown. Here, we show, with theoretical accuracy equivalent to that of human neuroimaging studies, that single-neuron activity in four core reward-related cortical and subcortical regions represents the subjective valuation of risky gambles in monkeys. The activity of individual neurons in monkeys passively viewing a lottery reflects the desirability of probabilistic rewards parameterized as a multiplicative combination of utility and probability weighting functions, as in the prospect theory framework. The diverse patterns of valuation signals were not localized but distributed throughout most parts of the reward circuitry. A network model aggregating these signals reconstructed the risk preferences and subjective probability weighting revealed by the animals’ choices. Thus, distributed neural coding explains the computation of subjective valuations under risk.

Risk-taking for others: An experiment on the role of moral discussion

We study the effect of moral discussion when risk-taking choices entail a negative externality on others. In our experiment, the decision-maker chooses between two risky gambles, one of which entails a better outcome for himself but higher risk for the receiver. In the Moral Discussion treatments – before making a choice – decision-makers discuss the consequences of their choice within a group of peers. We also implement a Reflection treatment, where participants have to think before making their choice, and a baseline with an immediate decision. Our results show that, after a moral discussion, decision-makers choose more often the less risky gamble compared to the Reflection. Moreover, this effect does not depend on the mode of interactions among participants. Through a mediation analysis, we also show that this effect mainly unfolds through a significant modification of the beliefs about the behaviour of their peers.

Sex moderates the effects of total sleep deprivation and sleep restriction on risk preference.

Sleep loss has been shown to alter risk preference during decision-making. However, research in this area has largely focussed on the effects of total sleep deprivation (TSD), while evidence on the effects of sleep restriction (SR) or the potentially moderating role of sex on risk preference remains scarce and unclear. The present study investigated risky decision-making in 47 healthy young adults who were assigned to either of two counterbalanced protocols: well-rested (WR) and TSD, or WR and SR. Participants were assessed on the Lottery Choice Task (LCT), which requires a series of choices between two risky gambles with varying risk levels. Analyses on the pooled dataset indicated across all sleep conditions, participants were generally more risk-seeking when trying to minimise financial loss (LOSSES) than while trying to maximise financial gain (GAINS). On GAINS trials, female participants were more risk-averse during TSD and SR, whereas male participants remained unchanged. On LOSSES trials, female participants remained unchanged during TSD and SR, whereas male participants became more risk-seeking during TSD. Our findings suggest the relationship between sleep loss and risk preference is moderated by sex, whereby changes in risk preference after TSD or SR differ in men and women depending on whether the decision is framed in terms of gains or losses.

Asymmetric valuation and belief updating over gain and loss in risky decision making: A behavioral and electrophysiological investigation

Decisions under risk, either for gain or loss, are ubiquitous in our daily life. However, the extent to which the valence (gain or loss) of risky financial choices shapes outcome valuation and belief updating is a relatively overlooked research area. In the current study, we image neural activity using electroencephalography (EEG) combined with a financial decision task to investigate outcome valuation and belief updating. In the experimental task, subjects can either choose to take the risky gamble (stock) or the safe option (bond) and then report their belief over the quality of stock option in a trial-by-trial manner. Although the actual probabilities of the risky option are symmetric over gain and loss, we found an asymmetric effect of belief updating and risk preference, viz. the subjects tend to both report a higher probability for the stock to win and be more risk taking for potential gains compared to symmetric losses. The EEG data following feedback of stock payoff represents a parallel pattern which is resonant with the behavioral results. Notably, there is generally a greater FRN difference for feedback (correct vs. incorrect) in the gain condition compared to the loss condition, and the deflection of P300 is more prominent in gain condition than loss condition irrespective of the correctness. Lastly, while the P300 could be predictive for the subsequent probability estimate in both conditions (gain and loss), the FRN is only predictive for belief updating in the gain rather than loss condition. Therefore, both the behavioral and electrophysiological findings indicate an unbalanced processing of valence in shaping decisions under risk within financial learning in an experiential framework.

Regret Now, Compensate It Later: The Benefits of Experienced Regret on Future Altruism.

This article explores how experienced regret and relief evoked in a risky gambling task influence subsequent intertemporal pro-social behavior. We apply a dictator game experiment with delayed rewards to investigate the effect on donating behavior by simultaneously the time delay when the recipient accepts the donation and the emotions experienced by the participant. We examine this effect using a choice titration procedure. The results reveal that independent of the prior experienced emotions, participants’ donations decrease as the time delay rises; the hyperbolic model provides a better explanation of this finding. Significantly, experienced regret impacts the shape of the social discount function with delayed rewards, which is reflected in notably different discount rates. Participants who experienced regret exhibit a lower discount rate than those in the relief condition. Note that this distinct type of generosity differs significantly at the 14-day delay but not at the shortest and longest. It follows that regret can promote future altruism and intertemporal pro-social behavior, depending on the delay.