Risky Environment Research Articles

When even the smartest fail to prioritise: overuse of information can decrease decision accuracy

ABSTRACT Many decisions require prioritising relevant over less relevant information. In risky environments, probabilities provide the weights to use information according to their relevance. We investigated whether participants with high ability and motivation are able to use probabilities effectively for prioritising relevant information and, therefore, decide accurately and achieve better outcomes. A variant of the standard probabilistic inference paradigm of decision research was used for which interindividual variability has been demonstrated. We assessed whether participants’ statistical-methodological competence can explain thesedifferences in decision accuracy. Findings show that even highly capable and motivated participants had difficulty in consistently prioritising relevant information. Participants looked up twice the amount of information necessary. In explicit decision contexts, participants achieved high decision accuracy, yielding high monetary gains. When information was conflicting, the overuse of less relevant information led to a deviation from accurate behaviour and, therefore, inferior decision outcomes. Statistical-methodological competence could not explain the deviation.

Patterns of choice adaptation in dynamic risky environments

An important aspect of making good decisions is the ability to adapt to changes in the values of available choice options, and research suggests that we are poor at changing behavior and adapting our choices successfully. The current paper contributes to clarifying the role of memory on learning and successful adaptation to changing decision environments. We test two aspects of changing decision environments: the direction of change and the type of feedback. The direction of change refers to how options become more or less rewarding compared to other options, over time. Feedback refers to whether full or partial information about decision outcomes is received. Results from behavioral experiments revealed a robust effect of the direction of change: risk that becomes more rewarding over time is harder to detect than risk that becomes less rewarding over time; even with full feedback. We rely on three distinct computational models to interpret the role of memory on learning and adaptation. The distributions of individual model parameters were analyzed in relation to participants’ ability to successfully adapt to the changing conditions of the various decision environments. Consistent across the three models and two distinct data sets, results revealed the importance of recency as an individual memory component for choice adaptation. Individuals relying more on recent experiences were more successful at adapting to change, regardless of its direction. We explain the value and limitations of these findings as well as opportunities for future research.

Police officers’ perceptions of a dynamic sex offender risk assessment tool (the ‘SHARP’) and registered sex offenders

The current study reports on survey results of 10 participants responsible for assessing the risk of recidivism of sex offenders on a police sex offender register. The survey aimed to gather the insights of police officers currently utilising a dynamic risk assessment tool, the ‘SHARP’. The SHARP includes four risk factors and one protective factor frequently associated with sexual recidivism: Sexual deviance, History of supervision violation, Antisocial orientation, Risky environment and Protective factors. The research combined quantitative and qualitative responses to ascertain police officers’ perceptions of a sex offender register and the SHARP. Participants were satisfied with the use of the SHARP, including their ability to code factors such as sexual deviance. Qualitative results revealed favourable attitudes towards the SHARP, especially around the SHARP’s usefulness as improved by the inclusion of dynamic risk factors. This research provides direct insights into police perceptions of the register and SHARP risk assessment tool.

The Workplace and Psychosocial Experiences of Australian Senior Doctors during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Qualitative Study.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had significant mental health impacts among healthcare workers (HCWs), related to resource scarcity, risky work environments, and poor supports. Understanding the unique challenges experienced by senior doctors and identifying strategies for support will assist doctors facing such crises into the future. A cross-sectional, national, online survey was conducted during the second wave of the Australian COVID-19 pandemic. Inductive content analysis was used to examine data reporting workplace and psychosocial impacts of the pandemic. Of 9518 responses, 1083 senior doctors responded to one or more free-text questions. Of the senior doctors, 752 were women and 973 resided in Victoria. Four themes were identified: (1) work-life challenges; (2) poor workplace safety, support, and culture; (3) poor political leadership, planning and support; and (4) media and community responses. Key issues impacting mental health included supporting staff wellbeing, moral injury related to poorer quality patient care, feeling unheard and undervalued within the workplace, and pandemic ill-preparedness. Senior doctors desired better crisis preparedness, HCW representation, greater leadership, and accessible, authentic psychological wellbeing support services from workplace organisations and government. The pandemic has had significant impacts on senior doctors. The sustainability of the healthcare system requires interventions designed to protect workforce wellbeing.

Evaluation of Risk as Conducive Environment for Earning Manipulation and Moderation Effect of Corporate Governance: Empirical Study of Listed Indian Firms

Separation of decision-making and risk-bearing functions in dispersed ownership structures offer scope for opportunistic behaviour of managers. Hence necessitate proactive governing mechanism for ratification and monitoring of decisions from the initiation and implementation of the decisions for protection of shareholders as well as stake holders interest. The motive of this paper is to evaluate whether risky behaviour provide conducive environment for earning manipulation and analyze the moderating effect of corporate governance (CG) and ownership attributes in reducing earnings management practices in high risk conditions. A structural Partial least square (PLS) equations model was developed to analyze the relationship and CG constructs moderating role was evaluated. Based on a sample of 270 listed Indian firms in NSE during the period of 9 years from 2007–2008 to 2015–2016 using smart-PLS, it was detected that market risk, financing and investing risk manifold opportunities of managers to maximise their own benefits by manipulating the information in their discretion (discretionary accruals measured through modified Jones Model). CG mechanism constructs like audit, risk and compensation committees, board activities, board characteristics, transparency have been found significant in moderating the relationship between risk and earning management while board composition and ownership structure have failed to restrain the opportunistic behaviour of managers in favourable risky environment contradicting acceptance of efficient monitoring hypothesis and resource based view in India corporate setting.

Working in a Risky Environment: Coping and Risk Handling Strategies Among Small-scale Miners in Ghana

BackgroundIt is estimated that about 13 million artisanal and small-scale miners carry out their activities under harsh, precarious, unfriendly, and risky conditions. Yet, our understanding of the extent to which these workers use personal protective equipment (PPE) and navigate through the various risks and hazards they face is still limited. This article has two main objectives. First, it explores the extent of usage of PPE among artisanal and small-scale miners for the prevention of hazards and risks. Second, it examines the coping strategies used by these miners as a response to experiences of occupational injuries and risks MethodsA cross-sectional survey of small-scale miners was conducted in six communities across three districts in Ghana, West Africa. The mixed methods approach was adopted. A total of 148 small-scale miners participated in the study. Six focus group discussions (FGDs) were held across the six communities. The data were analysed using descriptive statistics. Chi-square tests were used to analyse the relationship between some socio-demographic characteristics (sex, age, and educational background) and the usage of PPE. Open-ended questions and responses from FGDs were analysed based on the content and verbatim quotations from miners. ResultsFindings suggest that 78% of the miners interviewed do not use the appropriate PPE citing reasons such as cost, and their personal discomfort associated with use of PPE. There was no significant relationship between socio-demographic characteristics (i.e., sex, age, education and major mining activity) and the usage of PPE. The study further revealed four main coping strategies used by miners to handle the risks. These are rest, taking unprescribed medication and hard drugs, registration with health insurance scheme and savings and investments. ConclusionThis study shows that very few artisanal miners use PPE despite the significant hazards and risks to which they are exposed. The study recommends to the government to put in place measures to ensure that miners adhere to health and safety regulations before undertaking mining activities. This means that health and safety plans and use of PPE should be linked to the license acquisition process for miners.

Other-regarding preferences and giving decision in a risky environment: experimental evidence

We investigate whether and how an individual giving decision is affected in risky environments in which the recipient’s wealth is random. We demonstrate that, under risk neutrality, the donation of dictators with a purely ex post view of fairness should, in general, be affected by the riskiness of the recipient’s payoff, while dictators with a purely ex ante view should not be. Furthermore, we observe that some influential inequality aversion preferences functions yield opposite predictions when we consider ex post view of fairness. Hence, we report on dictator games laboratory experiments in which the recipient’s wealth is exposed to an actuarially neutral and additive background risk. Our experimental data show no statistically significant impact of the recipient’s risk exposure on dictators’ giving decisions. This result appears robust to both the experimental design (within subjects or between subjects) and the origin of the recipient’s risk exposure (chosen by the recipient or imposed on the recipient). Although we cannot sharply validate or invalidate alternative fairness theories, the whole pattern of our experimental data can be simply explained by assuming ex ante view of fairness and risk neutrality.

A qualitative investigation exploring why dance festivals are risky environments for drug use and potential adverse outcomes

BackgroundDance festivals have been shown to be high-risk events for use of drugs such as ecstasy/MDMA and possible adverse effects associated with use. However, few studies have examined what makes festivals such risky environments. We aimed to determine festival-specific risk factors for adverse outcomes related to drug use.MethodsIn-depth interviews were conducted with 35 key informants in North America who deemed themselves experts in new psychoactive substances, and identified as drug checkers, sellers, or experienced users. Interviews were coded in an inductive manner, and we conducted thematic analysis to identify relevant themes.ResultsWe identified four main themes focusing on festival attendance as a risk factor for risky drug use and related outcomes: attendees inexperienced with electronic dance music parties and party drugs, risky drug purchasing, risky drug use practices, and festival-specific environmental risk factors. Festivals attract a wide array of people not experienced with party drugs, yet drugs like ecstasy are commonly sought by such individuals inside festivals. Relying on strangers inside to purchase drugs is a risk factor for purchasing adulterated product. Fear of security/police at festivals leads to risky drug-taking such as ingesting one’s full batch of drugs at the entrance. These risks are compounded by environmental factors including crowding, hot temperature, and lack of water (which lead to dehydration), long/consecutive event days (which can lead to exhaustion), and inadequate medical emergency response.ConclusionsWe determined modifiable risk factors which can both inform future research and future prevention and harm reduction efforts in this scene.

Raising the Bar: Causal Evidence on Gender Differences in Risk-Taking From a Natural Experiment

We investigate the risk-taking behavior of women and men in high-stakes jumping competitions. Results indicated that female and male athletes differ in the timing and extent of their reactions to an increase in the risk of failure. Male competitors increased risk-taking in the more risky environment immediately after the changes. Female athletes, however, increased risk-taking two years after the rule change. Over time, female athletes revert to pre-reform risk-taking levels, and male athletes’ continued to make more risky decisions in the new environment. We attribute our findings to gender differences in competitiveness and risk preferences.

R-number Cognitive Map Method for Modeling Problems in Uncertainty and Risky Environment

R-number Cognitive Map Method for Modeling Problems in Uncertainty and Risky Environment

Reference Points and the Tradeoff between Risk and Incentives

We conduct laboratory experiments to investigate basic predictions of principal-agent theory about the choice of piece rate contracts in the presence of output risk, and provide novel insights that reference dependent preferences affect the tradeoff between risk and incentives. Subjects in our experiments choose their compensation for performing a real-effort task from a menu of linear piece rate and fixed payment combinations. As classical principal-agent models predict, more risk averse individuals choose lower piece rates. However, in contrast to those predictions, we find that low-productivity risk averse workers choose higher piece rates when the riskiness of the environment increases. We hypothesize that reference points affect piece rate choice in risky environments, such that individuals whose expected earnings would exceed (fall below) the reference point in a risk-free environment behave risk averse (seeking) in risky environments. In a second experiment, we exogenously manipulate reference points and confirm this hypothesis.

Weeding Out the Dealers? The Economics of Cannabis Legalization

We model consumer choices for cannabis in a risky environment and determine the supply of cannabis under prohibition and legalization. While introducing a legal market reduces the profits of illegal providers, it increases cannabis consumption. We show that this trade-off can be overcome by combining legalization with sanctions against users and suppliers of illegal products, and improvements to the quality of legal products. Numerical applications to the US highlight how our proposed policy mix can control the increase in cannabis consumption post-legalization and throttle the illegal market. The eviction prices we predict to drive dealers out of business are much lower than the prices of legal cannabis in the states that opted for legalization, leaving room for the black market to flourish. Analyzing the compatibility of several policy goals put forward in the public debate, including maximizing tax revenue and minimizing psychotropic consumption, we shed light on the less favorable outcomes of recent legalization reforms and suggest a new way forward.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the performance of the stock exchange market: Evidence from the Bahrain Stock Exchange indexes

Numerous studies confirmed that COVID-19 still has a negative impact on financial market performance worldwide, which inversely affected investors’ perceptions and decisions by creating uncertainty and a risky investment environment (Bagão, Dias, Heliodoro, & Alexandre, 2020). Therefore, the current study tries to assess the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on Bahrain Stock Exchange indexes during the pandemic peak period in 2021. The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Bahrain Stock Exchange is analysed using the autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) approach. Daily observations from January 1, 2021, to September 30, 2021, in Bahrain, encompassing the pandemic peak period. COVID-19 pandemic used to represent independent variables by new daily cases (positive), death cases and recovered patient cases. Meanwhile, the study utilized the Bahrain Stock Exchange for the dependent variables, including both Bahrain all-share index (BASI) and the Bahrain Islamic index (BII). The findings showed a negative and negligible association between BASI, BII, and COVID-19. The study found that both indexes and daily retrieved cases exhibit a favorable correlation during the research period. Additionally, the analysis concluded that both indexes are roughly moving in the same way in reaction to the present epidemic

Crude oil risk forecasting using mode decomposition based model

The crude oil markets have been transformed into more risky market environment with the increasing level of complexity and volatility in recent years. More accurate and reliable risk estimates increasingly depends on the better understanding and modeling of the crude oil market risk exposure. In this paper, we propose a new MD VaR based risk forecasting model, using multiple Mode Decomposition models and the Quantile Regression Neural Network (QRNN) model. This model takes a semi-parametric data-driven approach to calculate VaR by combining forecasts for both normal and transient market risk exposure at different scales. The transient risk factor is extracted using dynamically selected Mode Decomposition model such as EMD and EEMD. The optimal scale is identified and modeled using QRNN model. Our empirical results using major crude oil data show that MD VaR based risk forecasting model significantly improves the reliability of VaR forecasting.

Assessment of biological risk among dentists during the COVID-19 Pandemic-A cross-sectional study.

The health and life of a healthcare worker are repeatedly under threat due to the rising number of epidemics and pandemics. The COVID-19 pandemic is said to be fatal in people with a risky biological, demographic profile and working environment. This study is the first of its kind carried out on the dentist population from India, who were most affected during the COVID-19 pandemic. The present study aims to assess the biological risk of dentists based on the objective risk stratification (ORS) tool developed by Strain et al. This was a cross-sectional study of dentists in government dental colleges of Kerala using the online form of the ORS tool consisting of questions which included certain demographic characteristics and comorbid conditions of the individual. An additional question was added to the tool, to categorise the work of the dentist depending on the exposure to aerosol (non-aerosol, minimal aerosol and aerosol). Out of the 74 dentists, 48.6% reported high aerosol and 31% with minimal aerosol. The median score of the study participants was 2 (ranging from 1 to 12). Using the ORS tool, 16.2% had medium risk and only 2.7% had high risk. When the ORS tool was stratified with the aerosol generation, 5.4% had minimal and 6.7% had significant with medium-risk scores. Also, 2.7% with a high-risk score had minimal aerosol generation. Identifying the high-risk category to allocate duties accordingly and decrease the morbidity and mortality among dentists has to be kept a top priority in the event of a pandemic.

Does risk perception motivate preventive behavior during a pandemic? A longitudinal study in the United States and China.

Controlling the spread of an infectious disease depends critically on the general public's adoption of preventive measures. Theories of health behavior suggest that risk perceptions motivate preventive behavior. The supporting evidence for this causal link is, however, of questionable validity. The COVID-19 pandemic provides a rare opportunity to examine how risk perceptions, preventive behavior, and the link between them develop in a fast-changing risky environment. In a 4-wave longitudinal study conducted in the United States and China, we found that for Chinese participants, there was little relationship between risk perceptions and preventive behavior. This may be a result of the Chinese government's strict control and containment policies and a collectivistic culture that encourages conforming to norms-both of which limit individuals' nonconformist behavior. For U.S. participants, risk perceptions did motivate preventive behavior in the early stage of the pandemic; however, as time went by and the risk of COVID-19 persisted, preventive behavior also led to perception of higher infection risk, which in turn further motivated preventive behavior. Thus, instead of the presumed unidirectional influence from perception to behavior, our results indicate that the two could mutually reinforce each other. Overall, our findings suggest that risk perceptions-at least in the context of a dynamic health hazard-may only motivate preventive behavior at specific stages and under specific conditions. They also highlight the importance of early interventions in promoting preventive behavior. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Towards an Eco-Efficient Development Strategy that Minimises the Risks Associated with the Location of Gas Stations in Human Settlements: A Fuzzy PROMETHEE Method

Evaluating real world situations in risky environments based on various qualitative/quantitative criteria in order to suggest a strategy/policy among available options is one of the critical challenges in incident management. Such is the case when considering an eco-efficient development strategy that can minimize the risk associated with the location of gas stations in human settlements. Taking the Douala city of Cameroon as an example, four actions were evaluated, including the options of relocating the gas stations, putting in place of emergency response plan in gas stations, and relocation of households subject to a group of four criteria. Data were collected via personal communication with decision-makers using a five-point Likert scale. The market values of buildings subject to expropriation were estimated based on order No. 0082/Y. 15.1/MNUH/D of 20 November 1987 of the ministry of Housing and Urban Development, Cameroon. The financial costs incurred in establishing a gas station were an average value obtained from a sample of 80 gas stations randomly selected among those whose locations do not comply with existing regulations. These amounts were obtained from their financial records, while the value of putting in place an emergency action plan was obtained from the current market value of the equipment required. The algorithm of PROMETHEE under the usual criterion function was implemented. The results suggested that putting in place an emergency response plan could minimize relocation costs, maximize profits/welfare, and maximize environmental quality, and minimize social impacts, and was therefore considered as the most preferred alternative. Sensitivity analyses of results further confirmed that implementation of emergency response plan is the most preferred alternative.

“As long as there’s no mortal risk”: the perspectives of members in combat arms occupations on children’s outdoor risky play

ABSTRACT Parents’ experiences with risk can influence their perspectives on their children’s outdoor risky play. Parents in combat arms occupations in the Canadian Armed Forces have unique experiences with risk, as their occupations regularly include encountering and successfully navigating risky environments in military operations. In this study, we conducted seven semi-structured interviews with parents in combat arms occupations and used risk and sociocultural theory. Our reflexive thematic analysis resulted in two main findings: (1) Members believed outdoor risky play was beneficial for children to experience and supported children’s engagement in it; and (2) members distinguished between children’s outdoor risky play-related non-serious and serious injuries. Our findings advance scholarly conversations on how risk may be perceived and negotiated more broadly in populations who engage with risk on a frequent basis.

Factors Associated with the Mental Health of Health Care Workers Exposed to Pandemic-COVID-19

Background: Pandemic, COVID is spreading like a wild fire and it has already become a global issue. People all over the world are going through mental trauma due to the current situation of the globe. The most vulnerable situation is of the front line volunteers like doctors, health care workers, social workers who are coming in direct contact with the COVID patients and working in highly risky work environment. Since its inception in December 2019, Novel Corona Virus Disease started spreading rapidly both locally and internationally and looking to the adversity of the disease, World Health Organization (WHO) declared it has pandemic. The aim of this paper is to explore the determinants associated with the Mental Health of Health Care Workers (HCW) during the pandemic Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19). Questionnaire was developed having both demographic questions and questions related to mental health. Data was collected from 433 HCWs who were the front-line workers, involved directly in handling these patients. Questionnaire was classified into two parts; one included the demographic questions and the second part included questions related mental health and occupational stress. These HCW were the front line works and were more vulnerable and were having the high risk of getting affected. Percentage analysis was used to analyse the demographic data. Exploratory factor analysis was used to explore the dimensions related to mental health and occupational strength. Multi regression model was used to check the impact of emerged factors like increased workload, the continuous contact with COVID-19 patients and emotional aspects to mental health and occupational stress.
 Results: Value of R2 obtained was 0.778, which means, the derived factors namely Work pressure, optimism ,Risk factor, Emotional Exhaustion , Self control, Discomfort were able to explain 77.8 % of the dependent variable ‘Mental Health’. All the above factors influence Respondent’s Mental Health, as the significant the factors namely work pressure; risk factor and emotional exhaustion are directly proportional to Mental health. Work pressure is the most influencing factor among it. Optimism, self-control and discomfort are inversely proportional to Mental Health of HCW.
 Conclusion: Most important emerged from this study was ‘Work Pressure’. Due to the fast spread of this deadly virus, a war like situation has emerged and Health Care Workers are the most vulnerable people as they are serving the patients directly. They are sacrificing their own physical and mental health and are serving the mankind. These people deserves lots of appreciation and salutations.

Effect Mechanism of Error Management Climate on Innovation Behavior: An Investigation From Chinese Entrepreneurs.

Errors are inevitable in an increasingly risky and dynamic entrepreneurial environment. The error management and the error climate perceived by the members are crucial to the subsequent innovation behaviors. Maintaining and improving the psychological capital of entrepreneurs under errors is not only the psychological activities of entrepreneurs themselves but also a critical management process in which an organization can influence the psychological factors and behaviors of entrepreneurs through error management climate. In the context of Chinese culture, this study explores the influence of error management climate on entrepreneurial self-efficacy and innovation behavior under the boundary condition of Zhongyong thinking. Two hundred ninety samples of Chinese entrepreneurs are empirically analyzed in this study, and results show that: (1) error management climate and entrepreneurial self-efficacy have significant positive effects on entrepreneurs’ innovation behavior; (2) entrepreneurial self-efficacy mediates the relationship between error management climate and innovation behavior; and (3) Zhongyong thinking plays moderating roles in the process of error management climate influencing innovation behavior. This study complements the entrepreneurship literature with its focus on error management climate as an essential antecedent of entrepreneurial self-efficacy, and promotes an understanding of how Chinese practitioners promote innovative behavior from a cultural perspective.