Risk Of End-stage Kidney Disease Research Articles

High premature atrial complex burden and risk of renal function decline.

Atrial arrhythmia, particularly atrial fibrillation (AF), is known to be associated with renal function decline and increased risk of end-stage kidney disease. In recent years, premature atrial complexes (PACs) as subclinical arrhythmia have been proposed to be a marker of atrial cardiomyopathy and associated with poor clinical outcomes. However, the relationship between excessive daily PAC burden and renal outcomes remains unexplored. This retrospective, all-comers cohort study analyzed 30488 consecutive Holter monitoring records obtained from a validated Holter databank at a referral medical center in Taiwan between 2011 and 2018. After exclusion, 10981 patients were categorized into three groups: high daily PAC burden (≥100 beats per day), low PAC burden (<100 beats per day) and the AF group. We used parallel propensity score matching to balance confounding factors between groups. The primary study interest was major adverse kidney events, including an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline of 40%, eGFR <15mL/min/1.73 m2 or the initiation of hemodialysis. After a mean follow-up of 4.07±3.03years, patients with high PAC burden had a 1.24-fold higher incidence of major adverse kidney events compared with the low PAC burden group [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.50]. The risk of major adverse kidney events was similar between patients with AF and those with high PAC burden [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.05, 95% CI 0.87-1.25], but significantly higher in the AF group than in the low PAC burden group (adjusted HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.07-1.56). Excessive daily PAC burden is associated with a higher risk of major adverse kidney events and has a comparable impact as AF.

Serum Wnt3A levels are significantly associated with cross-sectional vasculitis activity and end-stage kidney disease during follow-up of patients with antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis.

In this study, we investigated whether serum Wnt3A levels at diagnosis reflected cross-sectional activity and predicted poor outcomes during follow-up in patients with antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis (AAV). This study included 80 patients who were newly diagnosed with AAV at a tertiary hospital. At diagnosis, whole blood was obtained from patients and sera was immediately isolated and stored at -80℃. Moreover, AAV activity was assessed using the Birmingham Vasculitis Activity Score (BVAS), and a high BVAS was defined as the highest tertile. Poor outcomes including all-cause mortality and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) were recorded. The patients had a median age of 63.5 years, with 40% being male and 60% female patients. Serum levels of Wnt3A at diagnosis were correlated with the cross-sectional BVAS and serum Wnt3A ≥411.7 pg/mL exhibited an increased risk of high BVAS. In addition, serum Wnt3A levels at diagnosis significantly correlated with cross-sectional acute-phase reactants and serum albumin levels. Furthermore, serum Wnt3A levels at diagnosis were associated with AAV exacerbation, leading to ESKD. Particularly, serum Wnt3A ≥407.1 pg/mL also demonstrated an elevated risk of ESKD (relative risk 3.867). Additionally, patients with serum Wnt3A ≥407.1 pg/mL exhibited a significantly lower cumulative ESKD-free survival rate than those with lower serum Wnt3A levels. This study is the first to demonstrate the clinical potential of serum Wnt3A levels at diagnosis for estimating cross-sectional activity and partially predicting the advancement to ESKD during follow-up in patients with AAV.

Estimated small dense low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol and the risk of kidney and cardiovascular outcomes in diabetic kidney disease

Aims This study aimed to investigate the correlations between estimated small dense low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (esd-LDL-c) and the development of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality in individuals with diabetic kidney disease (DKD) or diabetes mellitus (DM) concomitant chronic kidney disease (CKD). Methods We analyzed the data from a biopsy-proven DKD cohort conducted at West China Hospital of Sichuan University between 2009 and 2021 (the DKD cohort) and participants with DM and CKD in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2011–2014 (the NHANES DM-CKD cohort). Cox regression analysis was also used to estimate associations between esd-LDL-c and the incidence of ESKD, cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality. Results There were 175 ESKD events among 338 participants in the DKD cohort. Patients were divided into three groups based on esd-LDL-c tertiles (T1 < 33.7 mg/dL, T2 ≥ 33.7 mg/dL to <45.9 mg/dL, T3 ≥ 45.9 mg/dL). The highest tertile of esd-LDL-c was associated with ESKD (adjusted HR 2.016, 95% CI 1.144–3.554, p = .015). Furthermore, there were 99 deaths (39 cardiovascular) among 293 participants in the NHANES DM-CKD cohort. Participants were classified into three groups in line with the tertile values of esd-LDL-c in the DKD cohort. The highest tertile of esd-LDL-c was associated with cardiovascular mortality (adjusted HR 3.95, 95% CI 1.3–12, p = .016) and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 2.37, 95% CI 1.06–5.32, p = .036). Conclusions Higher esd-LDL-c was associated with increased risk of ESKD in people with biopsy-proven DKD, and higher cardiovascular and all-cause mortality risk among those with DM-CKD.

Incident heart failure and the subsequent risk of progression to end stage kidney disease in individuals with type 2 diabetes

BackgroundDiabetic kidney disease is an established risk factor for heart failure. However, the impact of incident heart failure on the subsequent risk of renal failure has not been systematically assessed in diabetic population. We sought to study the risk of progression to end stage kidney disease (ESKD) after incident heart failure in Asian patients with type 2 diabetes.MethodsIn this prospective cohort study, 1985 outpatients with type 2 diabetes from a regional hospital and a primary care facility in Singapore were followed for a median of 8.6 (interquartile range 6.2–9.6) years. ESKD was defined as a composite of progression to sustained eGFR below 15 ml/min/1.73m2, maintenance dialysis or renal death, whichever occurred first.Results180 incident heart failure events and 181 incident ESKD events were identified during follow-up. Of 181 ESKD events, 38 (21%) occurred after incident heart failure. Compared to those did not progress to ESKD after incident heart failure (n = 142), participants who progressed to ESKD after heart failure occurrence were younger, had higher HbA1c and higher urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio at baseline. The excess risk of ESKD manifested immediately after heart failure occurrence, persisted for two years and was moderated thereafter. Cox regression suggested that, compared to counterparts with no heart failure event, participants with heart failure occurrence had 9.6 (95% CI 5.0- 18.3) fold increased risk for incident ESKD after adjustment for baseline cardio-renal risk factors including eGFR and albuminuria. It appeared that heart failure with preserved ejection fraction had a higher risk for ESKD as compared to those with reduced ejection fraction (adjusted HR 13.7 [6.3–29.5] versus 6.5 [2.3–18.6]).ConclusionIncident heart failure impinges a high risk for progression to ESKD in individuals with type 2 diabetes. Our data highlight the need for intensive surveillance of kidney function after incident heart failure, especially within the first two years after heart failure diagnosis.

Genetic variants affecting mitochondrial function provide further insights for kidney disease

BackgroundChronic kidney disease (CKD) is a complex disorder that has become a high prevalence global health problem, with diabetes being its predominant pathophysiologic driver. Autosomal genetic variation only explains some of the predisposition to kidney disease. Variations in the mitochondrial genome (mtDNA) and nuclear-encoded mitochondrial genes (NEMG) are implicated in susceptibility to kidney disease and CKD progression, but they have not been thoroughly explored. Our aim was to investigate the association of variation in both mtDNA and NEMG with CKD (and related traits), with a particular focus on diabetes.MethodsWe used the UK Biobank (UKB) and UK-ROI, an independent collection of individuals with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients.ResultsFourteen mitochondrial variants were associated with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in UKB. Mitochondrial variants and haplogroups U, H and J were associated with eGFR and serum variables. Mitochondrial haplogroup H was associated with all the serum variables regardless of the presence of diabetes. Mitochondrial haplogroup X was associated with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in UKB. We confirmed the influence of several known NEMG on kidney disease and function and found novel associations for SLC39A13, CFL1, ACP2 or ATP5G1 with serum variables and kidney damage, and for SLC4A1, NUP210 and MYH14 with ESKD. The G allele of TBC1D32-rs113987180 was associated with higher risk of ESKD in patients with diabetes (OR:9.879; CI95%:4.440–21.980; P = 2.0E-08). In UK-ROI, AGXT2-rs71615838 and SURF1-rs183853102 were associated with diabetic nephropathies, and TFB1M-rs869120 with eGFR.ConclusionsWe identified novel variants both in mtDNA and NEMG which may explain some of the missing heritability for CKD and kidney phenotypes. We confirmed the role of MT-ND5 and mitochondrial haplogroup H on renal disease (serum variables), and identified the MT-ND5-rs41535848G variant, along with mitochondrial haplogroup X, associated with higher risk of ESKD. Despite most of the associations were independent of diabetes, we also showed potential roles for NEMG in T1DM.

First experiences with machine learning predictions of accelerated declining eGFR slope of living kidney donors 3years after donation.

Living kidney donors are screened pre-donation to estimate the risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). We evaluate Machine Learning (ML) to predict the progression of kidney function deterioration over time using the estimated GFR (eGFR) slope as the target variable. We included 238 living kidney donors who underwent donor nephrectomy. We divided the dataset based on the eGFR slope in the third follow-up year, resulting in 185 donors with an average eGFR slope and 53 donors with an accelerated declining eGFR-slope. We trained three Machine Learning-models (Random Forest [RF], Extreme GradientBoosting [XG], Support Vector Machine [SVM]) and Logistic Regression (LR) for predictions. Predefined data subsets served for training to explore whether parameters of an ESKD risk score alone suffice or additional clinical and time-zero biopsy parameters enhance predictions. Machine learning-driven feature selection identified the best predictive parameters. None of the four models classified the eGFR slope with an AUC greater than 0.6 or an F1 score surpassing 0.41 despite training on different data subsets. Following machine learning-driven feature selection and subsequent retraining on these selected features, random forest and extreme gradient boosting outperformed other models, achieving an AUC of 0.66 and an F1 score of 0.44. After feature selection, two predictive donor attributes consistently appeared in all models: smoking-related features and glomerulitis of the Banff Lesion Score. Training machine learning-models with distinct predefined data subsets yielded unsatisfactory results. However, the efficacy of random forest and extreme gradient boosting improved when trained exclusively with machine learning-driven selected features, suggesting that the quality, rather than the quantity, of features is crucial for machine learning-model performance. This study offers insights into the application of emerging machine learning-techniques for the screening of living kidney donors.

#594 Long-term risk of incident/progressive chronic kidney disease, or end-stage kidney disease post-acute kidney injury: systematic review, meta-analysis

Abstract Background and Aims Little is known about which patients to follow-up after an episode of acute kidney injury (AKI) for future risks. The aim of this review is to assess the association between AKI and the incidence or progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) or end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), stratified by subcategories of AKI-stages, -durations, and clinical settings. Method A systematic search of the literature in PubMed and Embase was performed by two reviewers to identify studies that examined CKD incidence (development of CKD stage ≥3), CKD progression (worsening of kidney function in patients with CKD stage ≥3), or ESKD, in patients with AKI versus patients without AKI. The risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Relative effect estimates (odds and hazard ratios) were pooled using a random effects model. Results In total, 48 retrospective and 13 prospective studies, encompassing 140.985 patients with AKI, were included in this review. All the studies were of moderate or high quality. The pooled effect ratio was 3.36 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.68-4.03) for CKD incidence (n = 31 studies). This remained 3.40 (95% CI 1.79-5.00) in a sub analysis including patients with a recovered kidney function post-AKI, and 1.49 (95% CI 1.44-1.55) in a sub analysis including patients with an AKI lasting less than 3 days (Fig. 1). Overall, the effect ratio for CKD progression (n = 11 studies) was 1.70 (95% CI 1.38-2.01) and 3.81 (95% CI 2.58-5.04) for ESKD (n = 24 studies). The increased risk of these two outcomes were not seen in the sub analyses only including patients with AKI lasting less than 3 days. Overall, there is an observable higher risk for CKD incidence, CKD progression, and ESKD with increased AKI staging, although not always statistically significant. Minimal variations were observed across clinical settings. Conclusion In our review, including over 60 studies, we found that AKI was associated with an increased risk of CKD incidence, CKD progression, and ESKD. Patients with higher AKI-stages had even larger risks. Notably, even brief episodes of AKI (lasting less than 3 days) were associated with a higher risk of CKD incidence compared to patients without AKI. In contrary, the risk for ESKD is not enlarged in a sub analysis including patients with recovered kidney function compared to patients without AKI. These result warrant close monitoring of the kidney function post-AKI, specifically in patients with AKI lasting 3 days or longer. Future research should focus more on the risk of CKD progression in order to tailor follow-up care in these more vulnerable patients.

#2088 Renal outcome, cardio-vascular events and infections in patients with lupus nephritis: MassiLUP cohort 2001-2022

Abstract Background and Aims Most epidemiological studies in lupus nephritis (LN) report the risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) (10-20% of patients at 10-15 years in developed countries), but less data is available on the long-term risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD), even though CKD is a major risk factor for morbidity and mortality. While immunosuppressive therapy for LN aims to reach and maintain remission in order to prevent CKD, it also exposes patients to cardiovascular, infectious and neoplastic adverse events. We conducted a retrospective cohort study to evaluate survival without CKD and adverse events in patients with LN. Method The MassiLUP cohort comprises all patients who underwent a kidney biopsy for a first flare of LN between 2001 and 2022 in the University Hospital of Marseille, France. We assessed patient survival, renal survival and survival without CKD (defined by an estimated glomerular filtration rate &amp;lt; 60 mL/min/1.73 m2), without cardiovascular event, without severe infection (requiring hospitalization, or zoster), and without cancer. Results A total of 168 patients (82.7% female; mean age 33 years; mean serum creatinine 102 µmol/L at the time of the first kidney biopsy) were included, with a mean follow-up of 9.6 ± 5.7 years. One (0.6%) patient had class I LN (ISN/RPS 2003 classification), 17 (10.1%) class II LN, 45 (26.8%) had class III (± V) LN, 73 (43.5%) had class IV (± V) LN, 29 (17.3%) patients had pure class V LN; 3 biopsies could not be classified. Four patients died during the follow-up (3 of severe infections and 1 of stroke); 41 (24.4%) patients developed CKD, among whom 19 (11.3%) patients reached ESKD; 34 (20.2%) patients presented a cardiovascular event, 59 (35.1%) a severe infection, and 12 (7.1%) a cancer. Survival rates without CKD were 82.9%, 74.6% and 67.3% at 5, 10 and 15 years, respectively. Survival rates without ESKD were 94.4%, 88.6% and 79.9% at 5, 10 and 15 years, respectively. Survival rates without cardiovascular event were 85.7%, 77.3% and 75.5% at 5, 10 and 15 years, respectively. Survival rates without severe infection were 76.3%, 63.8% and 51.8% at 5, 10 and 15 years, respectively. Survival rates without cancer were 96.3%, 92.9% and 85.6% at 5, 10 and 15 years, respectively. Conclusion Despite free access to treatment and care in France, the long-term prognosis of patients with lupus nephritis remains burdened by both a risk of CKD and ESKD, and a significant risk of cardiovascular and infectious events. This calls for continued efforts to improve therapeutic strategies, both in terms of efficacy and toxicity, and to strengthen the therapeutic alliance in the care of patients with LN.

#832 Sickle cell trait and APOL1 high risk genotype increase the risk of ESKD similar to diabetes in British Africans

Abstract Background and Aims Little is known of the risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in British Africans with Sickle Cell Trait or APOL1 High-risk genotypes. We aim to determine the prevalence of the APOL1 high-risk genotype and genetically defined Sickle Cell Trait in British Africans and their association with ESKD. Method We analysed 7380 British Africans from a UK population cohort, UK Biobank. It contains deep phenotypes, biomarkers, and DNA sequence data. We used whole exome sequencing data to identify carriers of known APOL1 high risk genotypes (G1G1, G1G2, G2G2) and SCT (heterozygous carriers of p.Glu7Lys in HBB). We identified individuals with ESKD (in receipt of renal replacement therapy including kidney transplant) using self-report, hospital admissions records, and general practice records. We used a cox proportional hazard model to determine the risk of ESKD with these genotypes adjusted for age, sex, hypertension, smoking and diabetes. Results 1131/7380 (17.9%) British Africans carry the APOL1 High risk genotype whereas 860/7380 (14.3%) had genetically defined SCT. Both risk states were found in 216/7380 individuals. Together, 32.2% carry one or both of these variants and 36/2207 (1.6%) developed ESKD. Of those with neither SCT nor APOL1 HR genotype 32/5173 (0.67%) developed ESKD. The multivariable cox-proportional hazard model showed that APOL1 high risk genotype increased the risk of ESKD by two-fold (HR 2.12-95% CI 1.19-3.79), p = 0.011. Surprisingly, the risk of ESKD was also two-fold higher in SCT carriers (HR 2.59 95% CI 1.44-4.68), p = 0.002 independent of APOL1 genotype. This risk was of ESKD for people with either SCT or the APOL1 high risk genotype was similar to that associated with diabetes (HR 2.75 95% 1.58-4.80), p &amp;lt; 0.001. The polygenic score for eGFR did not change the risk of ESKD in these carriers. Conclusion We show for the first time that 1 in 3 British Africans carry either two APOL1 high-risk variants or sickle cell trait, both of which double the risk of ESKD. These genetic risk factors increase the risk of developing ESKD to a level similar to that resulting from diabetes. A sensible starting point would be a trial of screening and aggressive management of conventional risk factors for ESKD.

#1050 Diabetes mellitus mediates the association between chronic hepatitis C virus infection and incidence of end-stage kidney disease

Abstract Background and Aims Chronic infection with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) is known to lead to extra-hepatic complications, notably affecting the kidneys. While prior research has established a link between chronic HCV infection and chronic kidney disease (CKD), there remains ongoing debate regarding whether this association is influenced by the presence of diabetes mellitus. Method This study, part of the REVEAL-HCV project in Taiwan, investigated the relationship between chronic HCV infection and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). Initially, 23,820 individuals aged 30-65 from Taiwan were enrolled since 1991-1992. Data included physical exams, blood tests, and questionnaires covering sociodemographics, lifestyle, and comorbidities. The cohort was linked to Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database, providing extensive patient data. Hepatitis C status was determined by HCV RNA testing. ESKD was identified using ICD-9-CM codes from the health database. Covariates like age, sex, lifestyle factors, comorbidities, and lab results were considered. The study emphasized accurate diagnosis of diabetes based on insurance claims with well validation. The mediation analysis was done by constructing 2 logistic regression models, with one regressing the risk of ESKD on chronic HCV infection status and the other regressing the risk of ESKD on diabetes status. The direct and indirect (mediated through the risk of diabetes) effects of chronic HCV infection on the risk of ESKD were estimated using odds ratios. Confidence intervals for direct and indirect effects were estimated using 5000 bootstrapping replicates. Results The study examined 22,800 participants, with a mean age of 46.9 years. Among them, 738 were chronically infected with HCV. These HCV-infected participants were generally older, more likely to be female, had lower education levels, and higher prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and CKD. During the 16.8-year median follow-up, covering 319,474 person-years, 378 end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) events occurred. The incidence of ESKD was higher in HCV-infected subjects (2.6%) compared to non-HCV-infected (1.6%). The univariate and multivariate-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence interval for ESKD in HCV-infected participants were 2.06 (0.90-2.08) and 1.57 (1.01-2.44), respectively. HCV infection also showed a significant association with diabetes mellitus. The multivariable-adjusted OR for diabetes in HCV-infected individuals was 1.53 (1.31-1.78). Further, the study identified a diabetes-mediated pathway linking HCV infection to ESKD. In this pathway, HCV infection increased the odds of ESKD by 0.8%. This indirect pathway mediated by diabetes accounted for 16% of the overall association between HCV infection and ESKD with statistically significant. The direct pathway, though not statistically significant, indicated a 57% increased odds of ESKD in HCV-infected individuals compared to those without HCV. Conclusion Chronic HCV infection is linked to higher incidences of diabetes and ESKD. The mechanisms are intricate, with diabetes serving as a significant mediator in the pathway from HCV infection to ESKD.

#2415 Estimated glomerular filtration rate thresholds associated with poor long-term outcomes in older patients with diabetes

Abstract Background and Aims Considering the natural decline of GFR with renal senescence, an age-adjusted estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)-based chronic kidney disease (CKD) definition was recently proposed, which has been supported by that mortality risks start to increase at GFR &amp;lt;45 mL/min/1.73 m2 in older adults (≥65 years). However, the eGFR threshold for mortality and kidney outcomes in older patients with diabetes was less understood. We aimed to evaluate eGFR levels that raise the risk of mortality or end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in older patients with diabetes. Method Older adult patients (≥65 years) with type 2 diabetes who visited our outpatient diabetes center during 2009 were retrospectively identified and followed up until 2017. Patients were categorized into four groups per their CKD-EPI equation-based eGFR: ≥60, 45–59, 30–44, and 15–29 mL/min/1.73 m2. Cox proportional hazard analysis for all-cause mortality and competing-risk analysis for ESKD (with a competing event of pre-ESKD death) were performed. Results Among 3,065 patients, 19%, 8%, and 2% of patients had eGFR 45–59, 30–44, and 15–29 mL/min/1.73 m2 at baseline, respectively. After adjusting various clinical covariates, including blood pressure, diabetes duration, urine albumin/creatinine ratio, HbA1c, serum cholesterol levels, and major comorbidities, patients with eGFR 30–44 and 15–29 mL/min/1.73 m2 had 1.51-fold (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.17–1.95, P &amp;lt; 0.001) and 2.66-fold (95% CI 1.87–3.79, P &amp;lt; 0.001) higher risks of mortality, respectively, whereas patients with eGFR 45–59 mL/min/1.73 m2 had a comparable risk (1.18, 95% CI 0.96–1.45, P = 0.127) to those with eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2. Substitution hazard ratios for ESKD were 2.29 (95% CI 1.41–3.71, P = 0.001), 5.25 (95% CI 3.27–8.41, P &amp;lt; 0.001), and 16.74 (95% CI 9.73–28.80, P &amp;lt; 0.001) in patients with eGFR 45–59, 30–44, 15–29 mL/min/1.73 m2, respectively. In a subgroup of patients 75 or older (n = 800), patients with eGFR 45–59 mL/min/1.73 m2 exhibited comparable risks for both ESKD and mortality. Conclusion Reduced eGFR &amp;lt; 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 predicted an increased risk of ESKD in older patients with diabetes, suggesting that the current traditional eGFR threshold appears feasible. Thus, some high-risk individuals may be missed if age-adapted eGFR criteria with a lower eGFR threshold than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 are universally applied for older adults ≥65 years.

#2051 Long-term follow-up of Israeli patients with lupus nephritis

Abstract Background and Aims Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) often affects the kidneys, and is associated with morbidity and mortality. Ethnic variations in clinical response to treatment and outcomes have been described. Information on real-life, long-term cohorts of the Middle Eastern Israeli population is lacking. We aimed to characterize the prevalence and long-term outcomes of kidney involvement in SLE patients in Israel and to identify variables associated with lupus nephritis (LN) and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). Method This retrospective study, conducted between 2014-2023, included adult patients with SLE diagnosed for at least 12 months. Kidney involvement was based on a diagnosis of LN on a kidney biopsy. SLE patients without LN served as controls. Associated variables were collected including socio-demographics, disease-related characteristics, kidney-related factors, comorbidities, and all-cause mortality. Results A total of 182 adult patients with SLE were included. Of them, 54 (29.6%) had LN. Mean follow-up since diagnosis was 16.2 ± 13.8 years. Compared to the control group, patients with LN were diagnosed with SLE at younger ages (26.8 ± 12.9 vs. 35.5 ± 15.4 years, p &amp;lt; 0.01). Patients with LN and controls had similar proportions of females/males and Jewish/Arab patients (Table 1), and had comparable baseline eGFR before LN diagnosis (110 ± 48 vs. 107 ± 39 ml/min/m2, p = 0.66). The LN group had lower complement C3 levels at diagnosis and higher dsDNA titers (p = 0.001, 0.023 respectively; Table 1). Patients with LN had more hospitalization for SLE exacerbations [38.4% vs. 24.5%, odds ratio (OR) 1.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1-3.9, p = 0.06]. Of 54 patients with LN, 45 had available treatment information. All patients were treated with hydroxychloroquine, 19 patients (42.2%) were treated with cyclophosphamide, and 36 (80%) were treated with mycophenolate mofetil or mycophenolic acid. During follow-up of the LN patients, 5 patients (9.3%) were diagnosed with diabetes, 21 patients (38.9%) were diagnosed with hypertension, 5 patients (9.3%) had a stroke and 6 patients (11.1%) had an acute coronary syndrome. Eight of the LN patients (14.8%) developed ESKD as compared with one patient (0.8%) of the controls (OR 22.1, 95% CI 2.7-181.5, p &amp;lt; 0.001). On univariate analysis, ESKD was significantly associated with LN, hypertension, heart failure, and non-employment status. No difference in the rate of ESKD was found between Jewish and Arab patients. On multivariate regression analysis, LN and hypertension were the most important predictors for developing ESKD. Mortality among patients with ESKD was 22% vs. 4.6% among non-ESKD patients (p = 0.02) )Fig. 1). Conclusion This long-term study on Israeli SLE patients reveals that despite advances in SLE treatments, LN is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The elevated risk of ESKD, particularly associated with LN and hypertension, underscores the imperative for targeted interventions to improve outcomes.

#1425 Anemia in patients with IgA nephropathy: an impact on the prognosis of IgA nephropathy

Abstract Background and Aims Immunoglobulin A Nephropathy (IgAN) has several well-known predictors of renal outcomes, including persistent proteinuria, hypertension, and baseline eGFR at the time of diagnosis. However, the effect of hemoglobin (Hb) levels on the progression of IgAN is rarely reported. This study aims to evaluate the impact of Hb levels on the prognosis of IgAN and to identify risk factors for anemia in patients with IgAN. Method A retrospective analysis of the data of 855 patients diagnosed with IgAN at Kyungpook National University Hospital between January 2002 and December 2021 was performed. We obtained the data on clinical parameters and pathological findings according to the Oxford classification at the time of the kidney biopsy. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the risk factors for anemia, and a Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate the effects of anemia on the development of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). Results Lower serum albumin, lower eGFR, severe interstitial fibrosis, and tubular atrophy were associated with anemia in patients with IgAN. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve revealed that patients with anemia had worse renal survival than those without anemia. The multivariable Cox analysis showed that anemia was an independent risk for the progression to ESKD (HR 2.86, confidence interval 1.58–5.17, p = 0.001). In a sex-specific analysis, only the female sex showed a significant and higher risk for ESKD (hazard ratio 4.07, confidence interval 1.53–10.8, p = 0.005). Conclusion A low Hb level at the time of biopsy, even if subclinical, was an independent risk factor for the development of ESKD in patients with IgAN. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor Hb levels at the time of diagnosis and take proactive measures to reduce the risk of disease progression.

#1355 Albuminuria after Induction Treatment and Kidney Prognosis in ANCA-associated Glomerulonephritis

Abstract Background and Aims Persisting proteinuria has been associated with worse kidney outcomes in ANCA-associated glomerulonephritis (AAGN). However, it remains unclear whether this reflects damage from the initial injury or ongoing inflammation. Method A retrospective, single centre study of biopsy-proven AAGN. The group “albuminuria” was defined as urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) more than 300 mg/g and the group “no albuminuria”, defined as ACR less than or equal to 300 mg/g at 6 months. We sought the clinical and histopathological characteristics from both the initial and any subsequent biopsies, and long-term kidney outcomes stratified by albuminuria levels. Results 218 patients were included. Within the first six months, 28 (13%) had either died or progressed to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). Among the remaining 190 patients, 37% had an ACR&amp;gt;300 mg/g at 6 months. The albuminuria group more frequently presented with a Berden mixed or crescentic class and had higher glomerular activity on the initial biopsy. They were also more often male [odds ratio (OR) 2.69; 95% CI 1.13-6.41], of younger age (OR 0.96; 95% CI, 0.93 to 0.99) and had fewer normal glomeruli in the biopsy (OR 0.96; 95% CI, 0.93 to 0.99) compared to the group without albuminuria. Over the initial 5-year period, the recovery in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was lower in the albuminuria group (adjusted mean difference in delta GFR −12.5 ml/min per 1.73 m2; 95% CI, −15.8 to −9.1). In multivariable analysis, ACR greater than 300 mg/g was associated with a higher risk of ESKD, even after adjusting for age, Berden classification and GFR at diagnosis (Hazard ratio 7.25; 95% CI, 1.62 to 32.47). Conclusion In a well-defined cohort of AAGN, one third of the patients, primarily younger males with a lower percentage of normal glomeruli, had persisting albuminuria after induction treatment which was associated with worse kidney outcomes independent of Berden class and GFR at diagnosis.

#1942 Social deprivation and chronic kidney disease: a population based cohort study in Italy

Abstract Background and Aims The impact of social deprivation on the progression of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) to End Stage Kidney Disease (ESKD) requiring Renal Replacement Therapies (RRTs) and death has been demonstrated by large cohort studies produced both in the US and the UK. Nonetheless, there is still insufficient evidence, which might depend on the difficulty of comparing Health Care Systems from different countries, the lack of a standardized measure of social deprivation and the difficulty of obtaining follow-ups long enough to intercept all clinical outcomes. This study aims to fill this gap by analyzing a large cohort of patients affected by CKD identified in Healthcare Electronic Records through a validated algorithm. Method The study population consisted of all adult incident CKD cases treated conservatively, residents in the Lazio Region, that occurred between the 1st of January 2012 and the 31st of December 2021. The exposure was the deprivation index (DI), a composite indicator at the census block level, which integrates many aspects: low level of education, unemployment, non-home ownership, one parent family and overcrowding. The DI divided the Lazio residents in 5 classes according to the quintiles of its distribution (form very low to very high deprivation). The study outcomes were all-cause mortality and ESKD. The health status of CKD patients was characterized using the hospital discharges for hypertension, heart failure, diabetes, ischemic cardiopathy, obesity and other conditions, in the two years before the identification. Patients were followed form the incident date up to the date of death, ESKD, emigration from Lazio region or 31/12/2022, whichever came first. Cox regression analyses were performed to study the association between DI and adverse outcomes, estimating crude and adjusted Hazard Ratios (HR) and 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI). The interaction between DI and sex was tested. Results From 2012 to 2021, there were 127 457 new CKD cases, 55.9% males. The average age was 72.2 (±13.7 SD) for males and 74.4 (±14.8 SD) for females, characteristics by deprivation index are reported in Table 1. During the follow-up, on average 4.3 years (±3.2 SD), 57 158 patients (45%) died and 5994 developed ESKD requiring RRTs (5%). The mortality analysis showed a statistically significant interaction between DI and sex. In males, there was a strong association between DI and mortality in both age-adjusted and fully-adjusted models (Fig. 1A), with a statistically significant trend across DI classes. In females, there was an association with a statistically significant trend across DI categories but the only statistically significant different HR was very high DI VS. very low DI (HR = 1.05; 95% CI = 1.00-1.09) (Fig. 1B). The association was much stronger for males then for females. In the ESKD outcome analysis there was not an interaction between sex and DI; hence, sex was used as confounder. The age-adjusted HR and the fully-adjusted HR of DI on ESKD did not show any trend across the DI categories and then the low and medium deprived had a lower ESKD risk compared to the very deprived. Conclusion The present study is so far the largest European prospective cohort regarding the association between socioeconomic position and CKD. The HR of mortality was inferior to the one found in the UK studies (HR 1.6). The most likely explanation is that we have stratified by sex and adjusted for comorbidities. In our study the most deprived patients have a higher risk of death, but not of ESKD requiring RRTs, showing socioeconomic inequalities in the worst possible outcome, that probably occurred before the progression of the disease in most deprived patients. Further studies are needed to confirm this association that can lead both individual and Public Health decisions.

A multi-trait GWAS identifies novel genes influencing albuminuria.

Albuminuria is common and associated with increased risks of end-stage kidney disease and cardiovascular diseases, yet its underlying mechanism remains obscure. Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for albuminuria did not consider gene pleiotropy and primarily focused on European ancestry populations. This study adopted a multi-trait analysis of GWAS (MTAG) approach to jointly analyze two vital kidney traits, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) to identify and prioritize the genes associated with UACR. Data from the Taiwan Biobank from 2012 to 2023 were analyzed. GWAS of UACR and eGFR were performed separately and the summary statistics from these GWAS were jointly analyzed using MTAG. The polygenic risk scores (PRS) of UACR were constructed for validation. The UACR-associated loci were further fine-mapped and prioritized based on their deleteriousness, eQTL associations, and relatedness to Mendelian kidney diseases. MTAG analysis of the UACR revealed 15 genetic loci, including 12 novel loci. The PRS for UACR was significantly associated with urinary albumin level (P<0.001) and microalbuminuria (P=0.001 ∼ 0.045). A list of priority genes was generated. Twelve genes with high priority included the albumin endocytic receptor gene LRP2 and ciliary genes IFT172. The findings of this multi-trait GWAS suggest that primary cilia play a role in sensing mechanical stimuli, leading to albumin endocytosis. The priority list of genes warrants further translational investigation to reduce albuminuria.

Five-Year Cumulative Cardiovascular Health and Clinical Events in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease: The CRIC Study.

Higher cardiovascular health (CVH) score is associated with lower risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality in the general population. However, it is unclear whether cumulative CVH is associated with CVD, end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), and death in patients with chronic kidney disease. Among individuals from the prospective CRIC (Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort) Study, we used the percentage of the maximum possible CVH score attained from baseline to the year 5 visit to calculate cumulative CVH score. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression was used to investigate the associations of cumulative CVH with risks of adjudicated CVD (myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure), ESKD, and all-cause mortality. A total of 3939 participants (mean age, 57.7 years; 54.9% men) were included. The mean (SD) cumulative CVH score attained during 5 years was 55.5% (12.3%). Over a subsequent median 10.2-year follow-up, 597 participants developed CVD, 656 had ESKD, and 1324 died. A higher cumulative CVH score was significantly associated with lower risks of CVD, ESKD, and mortality, independent of the CVH score at year 5. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios and 95% CIs per 10% higher cumulative CVH score during 5 years were 0.81 (0.69-0.95) for CVD, 0.82 (0.70-0.97) for ESKD, and 0.80 (0.72-0.89) for mortality. Among patients with chronic kidney disease stages 2 to 4, a better CVH status maintained throughout 5 years is associated with lower risks of CVD, ESKD, and all-cause mortality. The findings support the need for interventions to maintain ideal CVH status for prevention of adverse outcomes in the population with chronic kidney disease.

Association of plasma ceramide with decline in kidney function in patients with type 2 diabetes

Circulating ceramide levels are dysregulated in kidney disease. However, their associations with rapid decline in kidney function (RDKF) and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) are unknown. In this prospective study of 1746 T2D participants, we examined the association of plasma ceramide Cer16:0, Cer18:0, Cer24:0, and Cer24:1 with RDKF, defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline of 5 ml/min/1.73 m2 per year or greater, and ESKD defined as eGFR <15/min/1.73 m2 for at least 3 months, on dialysis or renal death at follow-up. During a median follow-up period of 7.7 years, 197 patients experienced RDKF. Ceramide Cer24:0 (odds ratio [OR] = 0.71, 95% CI 0.56–0.90) and ratios Cer16:0/Cer24:0 (OR = 3.54 [1.70–7.35]), Cer18:0/Cer24:0 (OR = 1.89 [1.10–3.25]), and Cer24:1/Cer24:0 (OR = 4.01 [1.93–8.31]) significantly associated with RDKF in multivariable analysis; 124 patients developed ESKD. The ratios Cer16:0/Cer24:0 (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.10 [1.44–6.64]) and Cer24:1/Cer24:0 (HR = 4.66 [1.93–11.24]) significantly associated with a higher risk of ESKD. The Cer24:1/Cer24:0 ratio improved risk discrimination for ESKD beyond traditional risk factors by small but statistically significant margin (Harrell C-index difference: 0.01; P = 0.022). A high ceramide risk score also associated with RDKF (OR = 2.28 [1.26–4.13]) compared to lower risk score. In conclusion, specific ceramide levels and their ratios are associated with RDKF and conferred an increased risk of ESKD, independently of traditional risk factors, including baseline renal functions in patients with T2D.

Interstitial fibrosis increases the risk of end-stage kidney disease in patients with lupus nephritis.

To evaluate the risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in LN patients using tubulointerstitial lesion scores. Clinical profiles and histopathological presentations of 151 biopsy-proven LN patients were retrospectively examined. Risk factors of ESKD based on characteristics and scoring of their tubulointerstitial lesions [e.g. interstitial inflammation (II), tubular atrophy (TA) and interstitial fibrosis (IF)] were analysed. The mean age of 151 LN patients was 36 years old, and 136 (90.1%) were female. The LN cases examined included: class I/II (n = 3, 2%), class III/IV (n = 119, 78.8%), class V (n = 23, 15.2%) and class VI (n = 6, 4.0%). The mean serum creatinine level was 1.4 mg/dl. Tubulointerstitial lesions were recorded in 120 (79.5%) patients. Prior to receiving renal biopsy, nine (6.0%) patients developed ESKD. During the follow-up period (mean, 58 months), an additional 47 patients (31.1%) progressed to ESKD. Multivariate analyses identified serum creatinine [hazard ratio (HR): 1.7, 95% CI: 1.42-2.03, P < 0.001] and IF (HR: 3.2, 95% CI: 1.58-6.49, P = 0.001) as independent risk factors of ESKD. Kaplan-Meier analysis further confirmed a heightened risk of ESKD associated with IF. Tubulointerstitial involvement is commonly observed in the histopathological presentation of LN. However, IF, rather than II or TA, was found to increase the risk of ESKD in our cohort. Therefore, to predict renal outcome in LN patients prior to adjusting immunosuppressive treatment, the degree of IF should be reviewed.

Risk Factors and Outcomes Associated With Heart Failure With Preserved and Reduced Ejection Fraction in People With Chronic Kidney Disease.

Heart failure (HF) is associated with poor outcomes in people with chronic kidney disease, yet it is unknown whether outcomes differ by HF subtype. This study aimed to examine associations of incident HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) versus HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) with progression to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and mortality. We studied individuals with chronic kidney disease in the CRIC study (Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort) who were free of HF at cohort entry. Incident HF hospitalizations were adjudicated and classified into HFpEF (ejection fraction, ≥50%) or HFrEF (ejection fraction, <50%) based on echocardiograms performed during the hospitalization or at a research study visit. ESKD was defined as need for chronic dialysis or kidney transplant. Cox proportional hazards were used to evaluate the association of time-updated HF subtype with risk of ESKD and mortality, adjusting for demographics, comorbidities, and medication use. Among the 3557 study participants without HF at cohort entry, mean age was 57 years and mean estimated glomerular filtration rate was 45 mL/min per 1.73 m2. A total of 682 participants had incident HF. Incidence rates for HFpEF and HFrEF were 0.9 (95% CI, 0.8-1.0) and 0.7 (95% CI, 0.6-0.8) per 100 person-years, respectively (Pdifference=0.005). Associations of incident HF with progression to ESKD were not statistically different for HFpEF (hazard ratio, 2.06 [95% CI, 1.66-2.56]) and HFrEF (hazard ratio, 1.80 [95% CI, 1.36-2.38]; P=0.42). The associations with mortality were stronger for HFrEF (hazard ratio, 2.73 [95% CI, 2.24-3.33]) compared with HFpEF (hazard ratio, 1.99 [95% CI, 1.65-2.40]; P=0.0002). In a chronic kidney disease population, the rates of HFpEF hospitalizations were greater than that of HFrEF. Risk of ESKD was high but not statically different across HF subtypes. There was a stronger association of HFrEF with mortality. Prevention and treatment of both HFpEF and HFrEF should be central priorities to improve outcomes in chronic kidney disease.