Risk Transfer Model Research Articles

Flood risk transfer analysis based on the “Source-Sink” theory and its impact on ecological environment: A case study of the Poyang Lake Basin, China

Driven by climate change, the frequent occurrence of regional destructive floods poses a grave threat to socio-economic systems and ecological environments. Previous flood risk studies have disregarded risk transfer within a region, resulting in inadequate flood risk assessment and ineffective disaster prevention and mitigation outcomes. Therefore, this study introduced the “Source-Sink” theory into flood disaster field to constructing flood risk transfer model. Flood risk assessment and transfer was conducted in the Poyang Lake Basin, China, where the impacts of the initial and transfer statuses on ecosystem service values were quantified. The results showed that the flood risk in the Poyang Lake Basin was relatively low, with high spatial distribution characteristics in the central-north areas but low in the surrounding areas. High-risk zones were mainly distributed southwest of the Poyang Lake. The lower-risk zones exhibited a contiguous distribution and were surrounded by higher-risk zones. Following the completion of the flood risk transfer, high-risk zones increased significantly; but there were a few zones where the risk was transferred to other zones, thereby lowering their risks. Flood risk transfer occurs primarily in low- and medium-risk zones, with high-risk zones being the most important growth targets. The change in risk transfer was most evident in the area surrounding Poyang Lake, while that in the Upper Gan River Basin was lower and less sensitive to the transfer effect. Accounting for flood disaster risk, the ecosystem service values of the Poyang Lake Basin decreased by 8.18 %, with the most significant impacts observed in the surrounding environment and southwest Poyang Lake. After the completion of the flood risk transfer, the ecosystem service value in the Poyang Lake Basin declined by 24.66 %. This study provides a reference point for flood risk management and sustainable regional development that account for risk transfer.

Risk modelling of hydrogen‐enriched natural gas on pipelines and gas‐electric coupled systems

AbstractThe use of natural gas pipeline networks to transmit hydrogen energy is an important form of hydrogen energy utilisation. The coupling of hydrogen‐enriched natural gas pipeline network and power grid involves the energy conversion of electricity‐hydrogen‐electricity, so the assessment is crucial because the system is complex, and the hazards to the system can be identified. This paper proposes a risk assessment method for gas‐electric coupling of hydrogen‐enriched natural gas pipeline networks and a three‐stage risk assessment model to assess the life cycle risk of natural gas pipelines; a material energy‐based risk transfer model considering gas‐electric coupling is proposed to describe the risk transfer process of hydrogen‐enriched natural gas between the gas network and the grid. By comparing and analysing the risk of natural gas blending ratio to the pipeline and the risk of pipeline pressure to the pipeline, the validity of the model is verified, which provides safety support for the connection of the natural gas pipeline system to the grid and ensures the efficient use of hydrogen energy.

Risk transfer assessment model of integrated energy system in the process of offshore oil and gas production

The offshore integrated energy system plays important role in the offshore oil and gas processing industry. To ensure the safe development of offshore oil and gas resources, accurately assessing their risks is crucial. First, this article describes the risk factors that affect the operation of the equipment and builds a risk model that takes into account the relevance of the coupled system; then, a risk transfer model based on material–energy analysis is proposed, which describes the transfer of risk through material–energy flow. In addition, according to the structure and operating characteristics of the offshore integrated energy system, a risk indicator system has been designed from five levels: operational risk, energy supply risk, structural risk, economic risk and environmental risk. Finally, by taking the simulation experiment of an offshore oil and gas platform, the proposed model in this paper evaluates the risks of offshore oil and gas platforms accurately.

Risk transfer between stock and open-ended equity fund markets in China based on a multi-layer network model

Due to the holding relationship between open-ended equity funds (OEFs) and stocks, risks can spread between stock and OEF markets directly. To develop an effective response strategy for this risk transfer, this paper constructs an interdependent stock-fund network to describe the relationship between the two markets and proposes a risk transfer model to investigate the risk transfer process between them. This model is applied to stock and OEF markets in China. Through a sensitivity analysis of three variables including the initial impact level of risk, the OEF liquidation line, and the stock discount rate, the changes in the OEF liquidation rate and the stock index under different conditions are analysed quantitatively. The results show the following: (1) The OEF liquidation rate and stock index have obvious percolation processes with the changes in the three parameters; (2) Risks are transferred between the two markets more rapidly when the parameters are larger than their thresholds; and (3) Affected by the size of the OEFs and the market value of the stocks, the initial impact level of risk and the OEF liquidation line have more significant impacts on the two markets than the stock discount rate. The proposed models can assist the decision makers in better understanding the risk transfer process between stock and OEF markets and to select effective strategies to respond to different risks.

Urban agglomeration ecological risk transfer model based on Bayesian and ecological network

Urban ecological risk thinking and policies should address larger-scale and consider urban dependence and impacts on distant populations and ecosystems. In urban agglomeration perspective, some researchers examined the spatial heterogeneous distribution of ecological risk at different cities, but ignored the interaction effect between two cities. In this study, a Bayesian and Ecological Network model is used to simulate the ecological risk transfer process between two cities under (1) air pollution transmission pathway, (2) water pollution transmission pathway and (3) economic trade transmission pathway, and to test the ecological risk promotion degree after considering the risk transferring from other cities. Ecosystem services are adopted as the assessment endpoint of ecological risk. Taking the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration as an example, the results show that, without considering the risk transferring in the urban agglomeration, the top three high risk cities are Dongguan, Zhongshan and Shenzhen. Risk transferring between two cities greatly increases the urban comprehensive risk probabilities, especially in Zhaoqing (134% increase rate), Zhuhai (73.0%) and Guangzhou (70.4%). Guangzhou and Shenzhen are both disseminators and victims of ecological risks in urban agglomerations. The Bayesian and ecological network model can support the decision-making process used for ecological risk prevention and ecosystem services improvement.

Grid Cyber-Physical System Risk Management Model Based on Cooperative Game Theory

AbstractAdvanced grid technology represented by smart grid and energy internet is the core feature of the next-generation power grid. The next-generation power grid will be a large-scale cyber-physical system (CPS), which will have a higher level of risk management due to its flexibility in sensing and control. This paper explains the methods and results of a study on grid CPS’s behavior after risk. Firstly, a behavior model based on hybrid automata is built to simulate grid CPS’s risk decisions. Then, a GCPS risk transfer model based on cooperative game theory is built. The model allows decisions to ignore complex network structures. On this basis, a modified applicant-proposing algorithm to achieve risk optimum is proposed. The risk management model proposed in this paper can provide references for power generation and transmission decision after risk as well as risk aversion, an empirical study in north China verifies its validity.

Sensitivity analysis of parameters and methodological choices used in calculation of radiation detriment for solid cancer

Purpose: Radiation detriment is a concept used by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) to quantify the harmful health effects of radiation exposure in humans. The current approach of radiation detriment calculation has been defined in ICRP Publication 103 in 2007. It is determined from lifetime risk of cancer and heritable effects for a composite reference population, taking into account the severity of the disease in terms of lethality, quality of life and years of life lost. Many parameters are used in the calculations and the variation of these parameters can have effects on the cancer detriment, which needs to be investigated.Materials and methods: In this paper, we conducted a sensitivity analysis for examining the impact of 12 different parameters or methodological choices on the calculation of solid cancer detriment, such as the lifetime risk calculation method, survival curve, dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor (DDREF), age-at-exposure, sex, reference population, risk transfer model, latency, attained age, lethality, minimum quality of life factor and relative cancer-free life lost. Sensitivity calculations have been performed systematically for each of 10 solid cancer sites, by changing each one of the parameters in turn.Results: This sensitivity analysis demonstrated a large impact on estimated detriment from DDREF, age-at-exposure, sex and lethality, a noticeable impact of risk transfer model associated to variation of baseline rates, and a limited impact of risk calculation method, survival curve, latency, attained age, quality of life and relative years of life lost.Conclusion: These results could have implications for radiation protection standards, and they should help define priorities for future research in the field of low radiation dose and dose rate research. The present sensitivity analysis is part of a global effort of ICRP to review the bases of radiation detriment calculation and assess potential evolutions to improve the radiation protection system.

Economic indicators of hydrologic drought insurance under water demand and climate change scenarios in a Brazilian context

Developing countries face large losses to extreme natural hazards. Regarding droughts, planning instruments are important for managing water resources and diminishing the losses. Under increasing demand scenario, varied criteria should be incorporated indicating society's capacity to bear the consequences. Here we present a Brazilian-contextualized insurance model and suggest its outputs as complementary criteria to assist water resources management and to inform the stakeholders. From the streamflow simulated using hydrologic models driven by a climate scenario, we applied the Hydrologic Risk Transfer Model (MTRH-SHS), an insurance fund simulator under a multi-year policy, to assess sustainability indicators and the premiums a community would pay to cover the expenses of water deficits. Multiple scenarios generated with MTRH-SHS link water yield and seasonality related to both premium and loss ratios. A 20% increase in water demand elevates the premium up to 0.1% of a local GDP. Even under current demand, premiums may surpass 0.5% of GDP because of changes in the hydrologic regime. Proportionally, more seasonal or varied regimes result in more heterogeneous loss events, which in turn is linked to higher insurance premiums. MTRH-SHS might raise awareness for decision-makers to cope with drought under changing water demand and climate in the Brazilian context.