This study explores the effectiveness of various methods for measuring risk tolerance, with the aim to better understand the risk-taking attitudes and behaviors of financial decision-makers. Using data collected between October 2020 and March 2021, the research investigates three key areas: (a) the stability of risk tolerance over a six-month period, (b) the individual and household characteristics that predict future risk tolerance, and (c) the predictive accuracy of various risk-tolerance assessment methods in relation to portfolio choices made by financial decision-makers. The results show that risk-tolerance scores derived from a psychometrically developed scale provide the most accurate insights into future risk-taking attitudes and portfolio decisions. For those looking for a simple way to assess both current and future risk tolerance and portfolio choices, a stated-preference item can be effective. Although less consistent, a revealed-preference test can also be used to predict risk tolerance and risk-taking behavior. Findings provide guidance for financial decision-makers and financial advisors by comparing the key features of the three primary risk-tolerance assessment methods evaluated in this study. The study also establishes a foundational basis for selecting the most appropriate evaluation approach, based on the variables identified in the findings.
Read full abstract