Risk Stratification Tool Research Articles

PIRCHE-II: a new tool to predict rejection in cardiac transplantation?

Abstract Aim This retrospective observational study aims to compare patients diagnosed with antibody-mediated or cell-mediated rejection with patients without episodes of rejection and study any predictors of rejection at follow-up with particular attention to PIRCHE-II scores. Materials and Methods We performed a retrospective evaluation of prospectively collected data of heart transplant patients from January 2022 to August 2023, at a single hospital. Preoperative, intraoperative and postoperative parameters are collected anonymously in our institutional database used for internal quality control. The primary endpoint was the incidence of rejection in one of three control endomyocardial biopsies. As pre-operative data, age, sex, BSA, blood group mismatch, risk such as dyslipidemia, hypertension, diabetes, peripheral vascular disease, COPD, previous cardiac surgery, PRA, ischemia time and post-operative infections. We evaluated patients at a mean follow-up of 106 (78 – 180) days. In patients who tested positive for cell-mediated or antibody-mediated rejection, the PIRCHE-II score was calculated. Results There were 45 patients with no diagnosis of rejection and they were aged 61 [50-65]; 22.2% were women, with a mean BSA of 1.87 ± 0.19. 22.2% had a blood type mismatch. They had a mean PIRCHE-II of 111.88 ± 43.6. There were 15 patients diagnosed with rejection and they were 63 years old [52 – 66]; 20.0% were women, with a mean BSA of 1.84 ± 0.23. 13.3% had a blood type mismatch. They had a mean PIRCHE-II of 113.70 ± 33.90. In multivariable analysis, the main predictors of rejection were plasma transfusions [OR 0.053, 95% CI, p=0.02], post-operative infections [OR 0.076, 95% CI, p=<0, 02] and the PIRCHE – II [OR 3.284, 95% CI, p=0.04]. The mean PIRCHE-II of patients who presented antibody-mediated or cell-mediated rejection was 113.70 ± 33.90 and that of patients who did not present any rejection was 111.88 ± 33.90; Conclusion According to the results obtained, the PIRCHE-II algorithm could be a tool in immunological risk stratification in patients undergoing cardiac transplantation. It is necessary, however, to apply PIRCHE-II to a larger number of patients and should also be considered in light of other factors such as the immunological status of the recipients, the immediate post-operative course (infections, CMV reactivation, blood component transfusions), which could constitute an immunological trigger and patient compliance in immunosuppressive therapy.Patients' featuresResuts

Validation of the HFA-ICOS risk assessment tool with real-world data from a prospective cohort of breast cancer patients in treatment with anthracyclines and trastuzumab

Abstract Background The increasing prevalence of cancer therapy-related cardiovascular toxicity (CTRCD) poses a significant challenge to patient management, necessitating accurate risk assessments. Previous methodologies have struggled with precise risk stratification, partly due to varying definitions of CTRCD and the specificity of cancer treatments. Purpose This study aimed to evaluate the assessment tool proposed by the Heart Failure Association and the International Cardio-Oncology Society (HFA-ICOS) in predicting the risk of CTRCD in patients undergoing anthracycline and trastuzumab treatment for breast cancer at a national reference center. Methods A prospective cohort study was conducted, encompassing 172 patients treated from January 2022 to July 2023. Patients were assessed at baseline, three months, and six months post-treatment initiation, with exclusion criteria including baseline left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <50%, history of heart failure, and stage IV breast cancer. The study utilized the HFA-ICOS tool for risk stratification and CTRCD was defined with the current criteria of the European Society of Cardiology guideline. Descriptive statistics were calculated, and incidence rates and Cox proportional-hazards models were developed according to the risk category. Results In our study, 138 (80.2%) patients were classified as low risk, 23 (13.4%) as moderate risk and 11 (6.4%) as high risk. We identified 81 (47.1%) patients that developed CTRCD in follow-up. Descriptive characteristics can be found in Table 1. The global incidence rate for CTRCD in our cohort was of 2.4 new cases per 1000 person-days, however no differences in incidence rates were found when stratifying by risk category (Figure 1A). Moreover, patients with moderate to high risk according to the HFA-ICOS tool did not show a significantly increased hazard ratio for cardiotoxicity (HR 0.41, 95%CI 0.15-1.12, p=0.082 and HR 1.39, 95%CI 0.50-3.86, p=0.5, respectively) as shown in Figure 1B. Conclusion While the HFA-ICOS tool provides a structured framework for assessing cardiotoxicity risk, its predictive value in this cohort was limited. The findings underscore the complexity of cancer therapy-related cardiotoxicity and the need for enhanced, individualized risk assessment tools. Future research should focus on refining risk prediction models, incorporating broader clinical and genetic factors to improve patient outcomes in cardio-oncology.Table 1.Clinical CharacteristicsFigure 1.Incidence rates and Cox models

Estimating risk using the novel Particulate Matters years index (ePM-years index). A report from the nationwide EP-PARTICLES study

Abstract Background Air pollution is the largest environmental risk factor, especially for cardiovascular disease (CVD). In this study, we present an original concept of estimating the risk associated with exposure to air pollution: the Particulate Matters years index (ePM-years index). Objective To assess the predictive performance of the ePM-years index. Methods The ePM-years index is an indicator of hypothetical exposure to air pollution. It is estimated by multiplying the number of years spent in a given environment by the difference between the average annual PM2.5 concentration and the allowed level of pollution given by World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines (Figure 1). We collected data from 2011 to 2020 on mortality and hospitalizations from National Health Fund and the Central Statistical Office in Poland, respectively. For further analysis, we used an age-standardized rate (SR), established on the European Standard Population structure. The source of air pollution data was GEM-AQ air quality modeling system. All data were connected with TERYT codes, all analyses were conducted at the county level (LAU-1) and then aggregated to the voivodeship level (NUTS-2). Poisson regression models were used to estimate associations between CVD mortality, ePM-years, and population level social and health status. We also estimated the attributable fraction of CVD mortality due to air pollution using AirQ+ methodology from the WHO. Results We recorded 4,010,531 deaths including 1,669,464 (41.6%) deaths due to CVD with a median age of 78.16 (SD=12.54), and 53.4% of females (N=914,932). Current smokers amounted to 29.9% (23.4%-33.2%). The main causes of death were coronary artery disease [405,268 (24.3%)] and heart failure [376,592 (22.6%)]. The mean Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita was 9644 EUR (7517-12,048), and the mean yearly PM2.5 concentration was 23.3 (SD=6.3) μg/m3, corresponding with the mean ePM-index 35.8 (21.5-66.6) in analysed time. The SR for CVD mortality was 500.3 (min. 461.9 – max. 604.5), the SR hospitalization rates were as follows: hypertension 312 (299-342), diabetes 90 (78.9-95.9), and HF 557.9 (310-728.4). There was an association of the ePM-years index with CVD mortality (shown as increase per 10 ePM-years): In Model 1 adjusted for GDP, risk ratio (RR) 1.023 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.002-1.044); in Model 2 adjusted for comorbidities, RR=1.025 (95%CI: 1.004-1.046); in Model 3 adjusted for GDP, comorbidities and weather conditions RR=1.027 (95%CI: 1.005-1.049). We estimated that 16.2% (N=324,460) [95%CI: 12.54% -17.9%] of CVD deaths were attributable to PM2.5 exposure, using the WHO's air quality guideline as the reference. Conclusions The ePM-years index may be used as a tool for risk stratification for patients and incorporated into CVD outcomes prediction models. The index can help with planning of appropriate primary and secondary prevention schemes related to long-term pollution exposure.

The 5-Item Modified Frailty Index (mFI-5) for risk stratification of patients with infective endocarditis undergoing cardiac surgery

Abstract Background population aging has led to an increased burden of frailty as an emerging global health issue, and variables for its quantification in patients with infective endocarditis (IE) are lacking in current surgical risks scores. The 5-item modified frailty index (mFI-5) score has shown to be effective in the prediction of surgical outcomes in other medical scenarios. Purpose this study aimed to assess the role of the mFI-5 in the prediction of surgical outcomes in patients with left-sided IE undergoing cardiac surgery. Methods a total of 112 cases of confirmed left-sided IE undergoing surgery, were consecutively collected and followed during one year after diagnosis in two tertiary hospitals between 2016 and 2021. The mFI-5 score included 5 baseline patient-specific comorbidities: diabetes, congestive heart failure, non-independent functional status (Barthel index <80), hypertension and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (range 0-5), and patients were categorised as mFI-low (<2, n=65), and mFI-high (>=2, n=47). Results mean age was 66 [SD 15] years, 67% were men and community-acquired infections were 75%. As shown in Table 1, mFI-high patients were older and, aside from the specific comorbidities included in the score, with more chronic kidney disease. The most isolated pathogen was S. viridans (n=32), predominantly in mFI-low, in contrast to enterococcal and polymicrobial IEs, which were more frequent in mFI-high. Larger vegetations were reported in mFI-high [16 (10) vs 13 (9) mm, p 0.03], with no differences regarding infection site or periannular complications. Acute kidney injury, decompensated heart failure and higher natriuretic peptides were more common in mFI-high. Regarding mortality, in-hospital deaths were more frequent in mFI-high group. When analyzing mFI-score as a discrete variable, in-hospital mortality was associated with higher median scores values [2 (2) vs 1(1) points, p 0.02], being 2 points the optimal cutoff point for prediction [AUC 0.64 (95% CI 0.54-0.73), Fig.1A]. Among survivors who completed follow-up (n=82), rehospitalization and all-cause mortality rates in mFI-high exceeded those from mFI-low. Predictors of in-hospital and 1-year mortality were assessed by logistic regression (Fig. 1B), confirming the independent prognostic association of mFI-5-score in patients with IE undergoing surgery. Conclusions patients with IE undergoing cardiac surgery with higher mFI-5 scores were older, more predisposed to enterococcal and polymicrobial infections, and had a greater comorbidity burden with a more complicated clinical course. The mFI-score was independently associated with in-hospital mortality as well as rehospitalizations and 1-year mortality, positioning itself as an additional tool for risk stratification in this cluster of patients.Table 1Figure 1

Incremental prognostic value of combined information of arterial stiffness and the result of treadmill exercise test in patients with suspected coronary artery disease

Abstract Background The effectiveness of diagnostic tools can be enhanced by their combination. We aimed to investigate whether arterial stiffness data, obtained by brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) measurement, could improve prognostic value to exercise treadmill test (ETT) to predict future cardiovascular events. Methods A total of 1,788 consecutive subjects (mean age 55.8 ± 10.7 years, 59.1% men) with suspected of having coronary artery disease (CAD), who underwent ETT and baPWV on the same day were prospectively recruited. The study outcome was major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular event (MACCE), a composite of cardiac death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization and ischemic stroke. Results During a mean follow-up period of 875 days (interquartile range, 116–2,212 days), there were 88 cases of MACCE (4.9%). The elevated baPWV (≥ 1,440 cm/s) (hazard ratio [HR] 5.18; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.68–10.0; P < 0.001) and positive ETT result (HR 2.81; 95% CI 1.77–4.47; P < 0.001) were associated with MACCE even after adjustment for potential confounders. The combination of baPWV to traditional risk factors and ETT result further stratified the subjects’ risk (low baPWV and negative ETT result vs. high baPVW and positive ETT result; HR 16.44; 95% CI 6.17–43.78; P < 0.001). Conclusions Arterial stiffness, assessed by baPWV, had incremental prognostic value to ETT result in patients with suspected of CAD. baPWV can serve as a useful clinical tool for risk stratification in this high-risk patient population.Kaplan-Meier survival curveMultivariable cox analysis

The prognostic significance of Weber and ventilatory CPET classifications in amyloidosis patients

Abstract Background Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) has emerged as an important tool for risk stratification and prognosis assessment in patients with cardiac diseases. The Weber and Ventilatory Functional Classification have been correlated with outcomes in patients with Heart Failure (HF). Weber classification is based on VO2: Weber class A, peak VO2 >20 mL/kg per minute; class B, peak VO2 16–20 mL/kg per minute; class C, peak VO2 10–16 mL/kg per minute; and class D, peak VO2 ≤10 mL/kg per minute and Ventilatory classification on VE/VCO2 slope I-IV (Figure A). Although VO2 and VE/VCO2 variables have found altered in the amyloidosis population, the applicability of this classification in a cohort of amyloidosis patients and its correlation with all-cause mortality have not been explored. Purpose To evaluate if the Weber and Ventilatory Classification of HF predicts mortality amyloidosis patients. Methods 194 with diagnosis of amyloidosis who underwent CPET from February 2010 to February 2024 were included in this retrospective cohort study. Patients with at least one CPET complete data were included in the analysis. Data on the type of amyloidosis, comorbidities, and echocardiogram were retrieved from medical records. Cohort was divided into two groups according to the Weber Classification: Weber Class A/B and Weber Class C/D. Individuals with CPET studies after heart transplant were excluded from the analysis. Statistical analyses including Fisher’s exact test, chi-square, Tukey-Kramer (TK), Cox regression model analysis, proportional hazards model for time to event, and Kaplan–Meier curves were performed. A p-value <0.05 was considered significant. Results Out of the 194 patients, 94 were classified as Weber A-B and 100 as Weber B-C. The age at stress test was similar between the groups: Weber A/B 62.9 ± 11.7 years and Weber C/D 62.3 ± 10.7 years (p=0.087). Ejection Fraction was similar between groups, 32% and 28.9% in A-B and C-D respectively (p =0.207). Higher levels of NT-proBNP were found in the Weber C/D group. The prevalence of comorbidities was balanced among the groups except chronic kidney disease, which was higher in Weber Class C/D (40%) vs (20.2%) in Weber Class A/B (Table 1). Cox analysis revealed a strong association between higher Weber class and the outcome HR 2.36 (1.18 – 4.71) p=0.014. For Higher Ventilatory Class (Group III-IV) similar results were found HR 2.95 (1.60 – 5.45) p=0.005(Table 2). Mortality was significantly higher during the follow-up in the Weber C/D group (25%) vs (10%) in the Weber A-B group p=0.007(Figure D). Conclusion Weber and ventilatory Classification based on CPET, besides predicting outcomes in patients with cardiac disease, are strong predictors of mortality in patients with amyloidosis. These findings suggest that this patient group benefits from earlier stratification to assess prognosis and the potential requirement for transplant independently from other factors.

Premature ventricular contraction burden measured by an insertable cardiac monitor and the incidence of ventricular tachycardia and fibrillation

Abstract Background Insertable cardiac monitors (ICM) have the capability to continuously monitor premature ventricular contraction (PVC) burden over time [1] as well as detect ventricular tachycardia and fibrillation (VT/VF). Objective We investigated the association of PVC burden with incidence of VT/VF in a large real-world cohort of patients implanted with ICMs. Methods Patients implanted with an ICM for various reasons for monitoring and PVC detection turned on were included from the ICM manufacturer's de-identified data warehouse. Patients were included if they had at least 90 days of PVC burden follow-up. Tachycardia episodes that were detected by the ICM were first classified as VT/VF, SVT, or oversensing using an artificial intelligence (AI) model that was pre-trained using over 60,000 manually adjudicated ICM detected tachycardia episodes. If the AI model output probability for VT/VF was greater than 0.2, then those episodes were manually adjudicated for incidence of non-induced spontaneous VT/VF. The PVC burden trends recorded by the device were divided into 4 mutually exclusive patient groups: (1) 0% PVC burden on all days, (2) 1-4% PVC burden on ≥1 day, (3) 5-9% PVC burden on ≥1 day, and (4) >10% PVC on ≥1 day. The incidence rate of spontaneous VT/VF was compared between the PVC burden patient groups using a Generalized Estimating Equations model with negative binomial distribution. Time to first spontaneous VT/VF occurrence after the first day of occurrence of PVC burden for the respective PVC burden groups were estimated using Kaplan-Meier analysis and the groups were compared using the Cox proportional hazards model. Results A total of 5,521 patients were included in the analysis. Patients had an average age of 69±15 years and 49.8% being males. There was a total of 33,393 tachycardia episodes from 2,641 patients that were detected by the ICM. After AI model probability-based adjudications, 691 spontaneous VT/VF episodes were identified from 277 patients. Patients with ≥1 day of PVC burden of 1-4%, 5-9%, and ≥10% were associated with 2.9, 7.3, and 7.8 times increased incidence rate of VT/VF episodes during follow-up period relative to patients with 0% PVC burden on all days of follow-up (Figure A). Kaplan Meier curves for incidence of first spontaneous VT/VF episode for the four groups following occurrence of the first day of qualifying PVC burden for the respective groups are shown in figure B. Patients with a day of PVC burden ≥10% were 3.5 times more likely to develop VT/VF in the future compared to patients with 0% PVC burden on all days. Conclusion Days with high PVC burden, as detected by an ICM with continuous PVC detection capability, were associated with increased risk of VT/VF events in a group of real-world patients implanted with ICMs. PVC burden measured by ICMs may be a risk stratification tool for further investigation to prevent sudden cardiac arrest.

Clinical prediction model of main adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events for elderly patients with acute coronary syndrome

Abstract Background Age is an independent factor for adverse outcomes in acute coronary syndrome (ACS). With the accelerated aging process, there is an increasing incidence of ACS in the elderly; however, research on this population is underrepresented. Due to the unique presence of multiple diseases and organ changes in the elderly, specialized risk assessment tools are required. Purpose To explore the risk factors for poor prognosis of elderly patients with ACS and establishing a risk stratification tool. Methods The derivation cohort consisted of 1674 elderly ACS patients consecutively enrolled in a single center from January 2013 to December 2013. The validation cohort included 2333 elderly ACS patients consecutively enrolled in nine medical centers from January 2015 to May 2019. All patients were followed up for 2 years, and the study endpoint was defined as major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE). Model selection was performed using Cox regression and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to construct the final risk assessment model. The performance of the predictive model was evaluated in the derivation and validation cohorts using the c-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and calibration curves. Results A total of 1,674 elderly ACS patients (70.97±4.68 years, 23.24% female) were included in the derivation cohort, and 210 cases (12.54%) of MACCE were recorded during the 2-year follow-up period. In the validation cohort, there were 2,333 elderly ACS patients (72.13±5.82 years, 35.83% female), with 364 cases (15.60%) of MACCE documented during the 2-year follow-up. Initially, 25 variables were preliminarily selected based on the results of univariate Cox regression and the clinical importance of these variables. Subsequently, these variables were included in a multivariable Cox model, and model selection was performed based on the AIC, resulting in the final selection of 10 variables (including age, cardiac insufficiency, current smoker, DAPT use, history of PCI or CABG, IABP use, number of lesions, residual SYNTAX score, preoperative HGB, and preoperative PLT). Then we developed and validated a nomogram to predict the 2-year MACCE in elderly ACS patients based on the assessment of 10 clinically easily obtainable variables during hospitalization. In both the derivation and validation cohorts, the nomogram demonstrated good discriminative ability (AUC of 0.723 and 0.699, c-index of 0.727 and 0.661, respectively) and calibration (calibration curves closely approximating the 45-degree diagonal line). The Kaplan-Meier analysis reveals significant differences in MACCE incidence rates between groups stratified by the median predicted probability (p<0.001). Conclusion Our study developed and validated a practical nomogram for predicting the 2-year risk of MACCE in elderly patients with ACS.

Circadian heart rate fluctuations predict 21-year cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in type 2 and type 1 diabetes

Abstract Background Alterations in circadian heart rate (HR) fluctuations have been associated with cardiovascular events in the general population. This study aimed at defining their long-term prognostic value for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in patients with diabetes. Methods We examined a cohort of 349 patients with type 2 or type 1 diabetes (52% women, age 57.1±11.9 years, BMI 29.4±5.9 kg/m2, HbA1c 8.6±2.1%, 81% type 2 diabetes) who underwent 24h ambulatory blood pressure and HR monitoring (ABPM) and assessment of diabetic microvascular complications. The median standard deviation (SD) value of ABPM-derived HR measurements was used to define patients with low daily HR fluctuations (low 24h-HR SD), while a <10% decline in average night-time vs day-time HR identified patients with blunted nocturnal HR dip (n=107, 31%). The clinical features and time-dependent prognostic impact of these conditions were evaluated over a 21-year observational follow-up. Results Low 24h-HR SD and blunted nocturnal HR dip were associated with an adverse cardiometabolic risk profile and high prevalence of cardiac autonomic neuropathy and nephropathy. After 6,251 person-years of follow-up (21.0 [14.0-21.0] years), a total of 136 (39%) deaths occurred, of which 100 (68%) of cardiovascular cause. After adjustment for potential confounders, the low 24h-HR SD group had a higher risk for both cardiovascular (hazard ratio 1.99, 95% CI 1.29–3.06, p=0.002) and all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.50, 95% CI 1.03–2.18, p=0.033), compared with high 24h-HR SD. Consistently, patients with blunted nocturnal HR dip had a higher adjusted risk for cardiovascular (1.61, 95% CI 1.07–2.43, p=0.023) and all-cause mortality (1.61, 95% CI 1.11–2.34, p=0.012), compared with those with preserved nocturnal HR dip. Conclusions Impaired circadian HR fluctuations are frequent in patients with long-standing diabetes and are associated with microvascular disease and increased long-term cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. Identifying these conditions via 24h-ABPM may provide a cost-effective risk stratification tool in this high-risk population.Kaplan-Meier curves

Cardiovascular effects of BRAF and MEK inhibitors in patients with melanoma: a prospective study incorporating risk scores, cardiac biomarkers and cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging

Abstract Background BRAF and MEK inhibitors have revolutionised treatment for patients with BRAF-mutated melanoma. Unfortunately, they are associated with cardiovascular adverse effects including hypertension and cancer-therapy related cardiac dysfunction (CTRCD). The ‘real world’ incidence and risk factors for these adverse effects are poorly described. Purpose To characterise the incidence and risk factors for BRAF and MEK inhibitor-associated hypertension and CTRCD in a prospective ‘real world’ setting. Methods Prospective, observational, cohort study of patients with melanoma treated with BRAF and MEK inhibitors at a regional cancer hospital network (March 2021 - May 2023). Comprehensive assessment was performed at baseline, 4, 12 and 24 weeks following start of treatment, including home and clinic blood pressure assessment, serial echocardiography, stress-perfusion cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) and humoral biomarkers (Figure 1). CTRCD was defined as mild, moderate or severe in line with International Cardio-Oncology Society (IC-OS) definitions. Hypertension was defined as 7 day average home blood pressure of ≥135/85 mmHg or the initiation or escalation of anti-hypertensive therapy. Baseline cardiotoxicity risk stratification was performed using the ESC Cardio-Oncology guideline-recommended tool. Results 61 participants were enrolled. 48% developed BRAF/MEK inhibitor associated hypertension. 46% of participants developed CTRCD and, of these, 24 (86%) were classified as mild, 3 (11%) moderate and 1 (3%) severe. Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) during follow up is shown in Figure 2. All participants with moderate and severe CTRCD also had BRAF/MEK inhibitor associated hypertension. After stratification with the baseline risk assessment tool, no patient in the ‘low risk’ group developed moderate or severe CTRCD. Baseline elevated NT-proBNP (>125pg/mL), history of left ventricular systolic dysfunction and atrial fibrillation were associated with the development of CTRCD. 20 participants underwent stress perfusion CMR at baseline, 4 and 24 weeks. 25% had a drop in LVEF to <50% but only 5% had a co-existing LVEF ≥10% from baseline to fulfil criteria for the diagnosis of moderate CTRCD. Conclusion BRAF and MEK inhibitor-associated hypertension and CTRCD is common, with a higher incidence in this ‘real world’ prospective cohort than observed in clinical trials. The majority of CTRCD was ‘mild’ and the long term sequalae of this remains unknown. No patients considered to be at low baseline risk for CTRCD using the ESC-recommended risk stratification tool developed moderate or severe CTRCD. These findings support the use of routine blood pressure surveillance in this group as well as baseline risk stratification to guide appropriate imaging surveillance of cardiac function.Figure 1.Schedule of study visitsFigure 2.LV function/CTRCD over time

External validation of the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2) model in cancer patients

Abstract Background Guidelines recommend cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk stratification before cancer treatment to better identify patients for intensified follow-up or cardioprotective treatment. Only a limited number of CVD risk stratification tools exists for cancer patients which at present is not widely used nor extensively validated. The ESC Guidelines on Cardio-oncology 2022 suggest using traditional CVD models like the SCORE2 (Systematic Coronary Risk Estimation 2). However, external validation in cancer populations is lacking. Purpose Our aim was to study the prevalence of CVD risk factors and incidence of cardiovascular events in a cancer cohort and externally validate the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2) model in this context. Methods We included 1058 patients from a large-scale populational study without diabetes or established CVD aged 40 to 69 years and diagnosed with cancer between 2006 and 2012. Participants were assessed for cardiovascular risk factors at baseline and followed until Sept 2023. The Norwegian Cancer Registry provided patient specific information about cancer characteristics and therapy. The primary outcome was the combination of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke or CVD mortality, which was retrieved from the local hospitals’ registries and the national causes of death registry. Performance was assessed using smooth calibration curves of predicted and observed risk and Harrel’s C-statistic for discrimination, both corrected for competing risks. SCORE2 was recalibrated by adapting the model with a single multiplicative constant based on the expected-to-observed ratio (E/O-ratio). Results The most common cancer types were gastrointestinal cancer (19%), male genital including prostate cancer (19%) and breast cancer (18%). Mean (SD) age was 58.6 (7.6) years, 54% were female. Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors are shown in Table 1. In total, 121 (11%) individuals had a CVD event (MIs 53 (44%), strokes 46 (38%) and CVD deaths 22 (18%)) during a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 11.1 (3.4 to 13.1) years, and 360 (34%) died due to non-CVD causes. Calibration plots showed adequate agreement between estimated and observed 10-year prognosis after recalibration (C-statistics 0.685, 95% CI 0.643 to 0.728), Figure 1. E/O-ratio for men was 0.65 and for women 0.63, indicating underestimation of the observed CVD incidence. After recalibration, the median estimated 10-year risk was 8.1% (IQR 5 to 11), 36% had >10% 10-year risk and 9% had >15% 10-year risk. Conclusion SCORE2 underestimated CVD risk in a general cancer population but showed adequate agreement after recalibration and C-statistics aligned with the original external validation cohorts. SCORE2 is useful also in cardio-oncology setting (after recalibration) to identify individuals at higher risk of developing CVD.

CSTB, FABP4, IBP-1 and ST2 are strong predictors of mortality after transcatheter edge-to-edge mitral valve repair

Abstract Introduction Various clinical characteristics have emerged as prognostic factors in patients undergoing transcatheter edge-to-edge mitral valve repair (M-TEER). The use of biomarkers for outcome prediction has enormous potential. The goal of this study was to identify novel biomarkers linked with adverse events after M-TEER. Methods We prospectively included 242 patients undergoing M-TEER at our center and obtained pre-procedural blood samples for biomarker analysis. Additionally, 94 follow-up samples were taken three months after M-TEER. A commercial multiplex protein assay (Cardiovascular III, Olink, Uppsala, Sweden) was used to quantify expression levels of 92 defined biomarkers. We analyzed differences in biomarker expression levels between patients that had died within one year after M-TEER and patients that had survived. Results 39 patients (16.3%) had died within one year after M-TEER. In these patients the most significantly upregulated biomarkers were NT-proBNP (expression 3.0-fold compared to survivors, p < 0.001), Cystatin B (CSTB; 2.0-fold, p < 0.001), fatty acid binding protein 4 (FABP4; 2.0-fold, p < 0.001), insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 1 (IBP-1; 1.9-fold, p < 0.001) and suppression of tumourigenicity 2 (ST2; 1.7-fold, p < 0.001). In non-survivors, expression levels of NT-proBNP (6.1-fold, p = 0.036), CSTB (3.2-fold, p = 0.050), FABP4 (3.7-fold, p = 0.037) and ST2 (2.1-fold, p = 0.017) were persistently elevated at the time of follow-up. Since its prognostic impact has already been described elsewhere, NT-proBNP was excluded from further analysis. Kaplan Meier analysis for 1-year mortality was carried out using tertiles of the respective biomarker expression levels. Mortality risk increased significantly with rising expression levels (CSTB: 3.4% in tertile 1, 12.2% in tertile 2, 37.9% in tertile 3; FABP4: 5.1%, 14.2% and 31.7%; IBP-1: 3.3%, 13.2% and 36.2%; ST2: 4.9%, 11.9% and 36.7%; p by log-rank-test < 0.001 for all biomarkers). Patients in which all 4 biomarkers were elevated to the highest tertile had an excessively high mortality risk of 52.9 vs. 13.5% (p by log-rank-test < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis suggested higher predictive performances for mortality of all 4 biomarkers as compared to the EuroSCORE II (CSTB: area under the curve (AUC) 78.1%, 95% CI 70.7 – 85.5%; FABP4: AUC 71.6%, 95% CI 63.1 – 80.0%; IBP-1: AUC 73.9%, 95% CI 65.7 – 82.1%; ST2: AUC 76.2%, 95% CI 68.5 – 84.0%; EuroSCORE II: AUC 68.4%, 95% CI 59.3 – 77.5%). Conclusion This analysis has revealed novel biomarkers (CSTB, FABP4, IBP-1, ST2), which so far have not been characterized in M-TEER and suggests significant prognostic implications. Predictive performance of each of the respective biomarkers was superior to the most commonly used pre-operative risk stratification tool: the surgical EuroSCORE II. This hypothesis-generating study warrants further examination of these promising biomarkers.

A risk score for ventricular arrhythmia in mitral valve prolapse

Abstract Background Prior studies have identified that complex and frequent ventricular ectopy (cfVE) predicts sudden death in patients with mitral valve prolapse (MVP). Purpose To develop a risk stratification score which predicts rates of cfVE in patients with MVP based on clinical, ECG and echocardiographic features. Methods Data was collected on 637 patients aged 18–90 years with MVP at our institution between 2016-2019. Complex and frequent ventricular ectopy was defined as the presence of > 1% premature ventricular contraction (PVC) burden or non-sustained ventricular tachycardia on Holter monitoring or > 1 PVC on 12-lead ECG. Univariate analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of cfVE. Factors found to be statistically significant on univariate analysis were then evaluated using multivariate logistic regression. Variables analyzed included age greater than 65, moderate or greater mitral regurgitation, female gender, African American race, atrial fibrillation, coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure, inferior or lateral T wave inversion, bileaflet (vs. unileaflet) prolapse, myxomatous mitral valve morphology, mitral annular dysjunction, left ventricular ejection fraction less than 40%, left ventricular hypertrophy, diabetes, and hypertension. Risk points were attributed to multivariate predictors of cfVE using their odds ratios. Predicted probability of cfVE, derived by logistic regression, was used to categorize scores into low, moderate, and high risk. Rates of cfVE were compared between risk groups using Pearson’s Chi-squared test. All-cause mortality was compared between risk score groups with Kaplan-Meier analysis. Results Complex and frequent ventricular ectopy was present in 182 (28.6%) patients. Multivariate predictors of cfVE were mitral annular disjunction (MAD, OR 3.2, 95% CI 1.9-5.4), bileaflet (vs. unileaflet) prolapse (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.4-3.3), congestive heart failure (OR 2.2 95% CI 1.3-3.7) and inferior or lateral T wave inversion (TWI, OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.3-3.2). Risk points of 1.5 for MAD and 1 for bileaflet prolapse, CHF and TWI were totaled to group patients into low (score 0, n=274, 43.0%), moderate (score 1-2, n=276 ,43.3%) and high (score 2.5-4.5, n=87,13.7%) risk groups. Rates of cfVE were 11.7% for low, 35.5% for moderate and 59.8% for high-risk groups (p<0.0001). On Kaplan Meier analysis, risk group significantly correlated with mortality (p<0.0008). Conclusion In patients with MVP this risk stratification tool, using the presence of mitral annular disjunction, bileaflet prolapse, history of congestive heart failure and T-wave inversion, represents a viable method of predicting risk of cfVE, which correlates with all-cause mortality.Univariate and multivariate analysisKaplan-Meier Curve

Baseline shock index-creatinine clearance score and long-term mortality after ACS. Results from 24 years of follow-up of the ABC study on heart disease

Abstract Background Shock Index-Creatinine Clearance score (SI-C) is an updated version of the shock index that includes renal function. Recent studies reported its potential as a novel and simple risk stratification tool for predicting in-hospital mortality in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients. Purpose To assess the long-term predictive value of baseline SI-C score in patients after ACS. Methods This preliminary prospective analysis included 589 patients with ACS admitted to three Italian hospitals and discharged alive. Baseline clinical and laboratory data were collected within the first 7 hospitalization days and baseline SI-C score was calculated as [(SI×100)-estimated creatinine clearance]. Patients were prospectively followed for 24 years or until death. Results Virtually all patients completed the follow-up, representing 7066 person-years. Patients' mean age was 66±12 years, 70% were males, and 482(82%) had died during follow-up. Compared to those who survived, deceased patients were significantly different in many of the baseline clinical characteristics. They also showed a significantly higher SI-C values ( -11± 25 vs. -36±23, p<0.0001). The predictive value of SI-C for 24-year mortality was very good (area under the curve= 0.783, 95% CI: 0.738-0.827, p<0.001). The cumulative risk was significantly higher in the upper SI-C tertile (log-rank = 162.1, p < 0.001). Unadjusted Cox regression survival analysis showed that the SI-C score was significantly associated with long-term all-cause mortality (HR: 2.1, 95%CI 1.8-2.3, p<0.0001). Similar results were obtained with the fully adjusted model. Conclusion Baseline SI-C seems to be an effective and independent predictor of long-term all-cause mortality after ACS.

Cardiovascular events in CML patients treated with nilotinib: validation of the HFA-ICOS baseline risk score

Abstract Background The therapeutic landscape of chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) has been transformed by tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI). Nilotinib, a potent 2nd generation TKI, showed higher rates of major molecular response than imatinib, however was associated with higher rates of cardiovascular (CV) toxicity. Objectives To describe the CV events associated with nilotinib in a real-world CML population and assess the predictive value of the HFA-ICOS baseline risk score in clinical practice. Methods The HFA-ICOS baseline risk was calculated (low, medium, high /very high) for patients with CML treated with nilotinib between 2006 and 2021. The incidence of all CV events, ischaemic events and Major CV Adverse Events (MACE) were reviewed and compared among the different risk groups. Results A total of two hundred and twenty-nine eligible patients were included in the analysis. The incidence of CV events, ischaemic events, and MACE, while on nilotinib, were 20.9% (95% CI: 15.7% to 26.2%), 12.7% (95% CI: 8.4% to 16.9%), and 12.2% (95% CI: 7.9% to 16.5%) respectively, following a median duration of treatment with nilotinib of 34.4 months for the entire cohort. Patients with a higher HFA-ICOS baseline risk score had higher rates of all CV events (low: 11.2%, medium: 28.2% [HR: 2.8, 95% CI: 1.2 to 6.2], high/very high: 32.4% [HR: 3.5, 95% CI: 1.8 to 6.8]), ischaemic events (low: 5.2%, medium: 17.9% [HR: 3.7, 95% CI: 1.2 to 10.9] , high/very high: 21.6% [HR: 3.7, 95% CI: 1.4 to 9.7]) and MACE (low: 7.8% , medium: 10.3% [HR:1.2, 95% CI: 0.38 to 4.1], high/very high: 20.2% [HR: 2.2, 95% CI: 0.9 to 5.3]). The predictive tool presented an 89% NPV, and an area under the ROC curve: 0.65 for all CV events, an NPV of 95% and AUC 0.68 for ischaemic events and NPV 92% and AUC 0.62 for MACE. Conclusions The HFA-ICOS risk stratification tool has been shown to be an efficient discriminator at low, medium and high/very high risk of developing cardiovascular events, with an overall positive trend towards increasing cardiotoxicity rates with rising risk categories. This study provides evidence to support the use of this predictive tool in nilotinib treated patients, as it also underscores the potential for further improvement in the overall discriminatory ability of the model.

Prospective assessment of risk factors for appropriate ICD intervention in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy: results of PARCADIA trial

Abstract Background There is still a big unmet need for better risk stratification tools to identify patients at high risk for sudden cardiac death in the era of primary prevention ICD therapy. Scar burden on late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging may be a risk marker for the prediction of ventricular arrhythmia in post-myocardial infarction (MI) patients. Purpose The aim of the PARCADIA trial was to assess whether scar characteristics, determined via LGE-CMR, or other baseline risk markers are associated with appropriate ICD therapy. Methods In this prospective, multi-center, clinical trial, we enrolled post-MI patients with an indication for de novo primary prevention ICD. Main exclusion criteria were indication for cardiac resynchronization therapy and NYHA class IV. Prior to the ICD implantation, LGE-CMR was performed to analyze the amount of scar tissue (LGE core mass + grey zone mass) and LV function / volumes. A 24h Holter recording was performed to collect information on potential triggers like premature ventricular beats (PVB) and sympathetic-vagal balance based on heart rate variability (HRV). Follow-ups were performed in-office every 6 months, including remote monitoring. Appropriate ICD therapy was used as primary endpoint and adjudicated by a clinical event committee. Results 199 patients were enrolled at 5 investigational sites in Europe. Patients mean age was 64.3 years, with a mean LVEF of 27.7 %, timing from the index MI was 9.1 years, and 42.7% received a primary PCI on index MI. After a median follow-up duration of 47.7 months, 23.1% of patients received appropriate ICD therapy. In 135 patients (67.8%), quality of LGE-CMR was sufficient for detailed analysis. The mean LGE core mass (20.5 vs. 19,7 g) and grey zone mass (10.5 vs. 11.4 g) was not different in patients with or without appropriate ICD therapy, also not when corrected for LV mass. However, LVEF (28.5 vs. 32.9 %) was lower, while diastolic myocardial mass (141 vs. 125 g), and end-diastolic volume (265.0 vs. 226.7 ml) were significantly higher in patients with appropriate ICD therapy. On 24h Holter the mean PVB burden (3695 vs. 1643 beats), and non-sustained ventricular tachycardia (12 vs. 0.9), were higher in patients with appropriate ICD therapy, while the HRV (96.1 vs. 113.1 SDNN) was lower. In univariate analysis the variables LVEF, timing to index MI, primary PCI on index MI, PVB burden and HRV appeared to be predictors for appropriate ICD intervention, while in multivariate analysis LVEF and PVB burden remained predictive. Conclusion In post-MI patients with appropriate ICD therapy, scar burden was not different from patients without appropriate ICD therapy. Only LVEF and PVB burden were independent predictors of increased arrhythmogenicity. Improved CMR analysis on scar characteristics (conduction channels) to identify potential arrhythmogenic regions might be the topic for future research.

Inflammation and long-term outcomes after first-time direct current cardioversion for atrial fibrillation: a nationwide register study

Abstract Background Emerging evidence suggests that the pathogenesis of atrial fibrillation (AF) is affected by inflammatory processes which contribute to structural and electrical remodeling of the atria, creating a substrate for arrythmia. Aim To assess whether inflammation measured by C-reactive protein (CRP) is associated with readmission for direct current (DC) cardioversion, ablation, heart failure or stroke after discharge from 1st time DC cardioversion. Methods This nationwide retrospective cohort study included patients undergoing 1st DC cardioversion between 2011 and 2018. Exclusion criteria were death within one day of cardioversion and no available CRP at baseline. Primary outcome was readmission for DC cardioversion of AF. Secondary outcomes were AF ablation, new admission of stroke, new admission of heart failure (HF), and all-cause death. Absolute risk rates (ARR) of outcomes were calculated for patients with available 1-year follow-up data. CRP 20 mg/L was chosen as cutoff to establish a clinically relevant borderline for inflammation. The association between baseline CRP and outcome was assessed in Cox proportional hazards regression models with a follow-up period starting from 1st DC cardioversion, ending no later than 31st of December 2018, for the entire study population (n=9,977). Results After exclusion criteria the study population consisted of 9,977 patients Mean age for CRP > 20mg/L: 66.8 (IQR: 60.5-74.2). Mean age for CRP < 20mg/L 68.9 (IQR: 62.9-75.9)(p<0.001). In total, 68.9% were male and the most frequent comorbidities included hypertension (57.3%), ischemic heart disease (25.1%), HF (20.6%), and history of stroke (7.1%). Patients with available CRP measurement and 1yr follow up was 7,764. Compared to patients with low CRP (<20 mg/L), patients with elevated CRP (>20mg/L) had a higher 1-year ARR of HF, and all cause death (p<0.001). Compared to patients with low CRP, patients with elevated CRP had a lower 1-year ARR of all-ablation and new DC cardioversion (p<0.001), (Table 1). CRP > 20mg/L was associated with lower risk for new DC cardioversion (HR 0.72, 95% CI: 0.64-0.82, p<0.001). However, in patients <75 years of age with CRP > 20mg/L at baseline had an increased risk of stroke after multivariable adjustments (HR 1.92, 95% CI: 1.10-3.35; p = 0.02) (Fig.1), while CRP > 20 mg/L was not associated with an increased risk of stroke in patients > 75yrs of age (Cox regressions estimates) (p for interaction = 0.03). Conclusion However, elevated CRP was associated with an increased risk of stroke in patients <75 years of age, even after multivariable adjustments. These results suggest that CRP may not be a reliable predictor of readmission for DC-cardioversion, especially in older individuals, but might be a potential risk stratification tool in identifying AF patients at higher risk of stroke in young individuals. We suspect this is due to the population with elevated CRP has more comorbidities and are older.

Association between weight-adjusted waist index with incident stroke in the elderly with hypertension: a cohort study

The objective of this study was to ascertain the relationship between the weight-adjusted waist index (WWI) and the risk of stroke in an elderly hypertensive population, a relationship that has not been previously elucidated. The Cox regression model was employed to assess the correlation between baseline WWI measurements and the incidence of stroke. To further elucidate the shape of the association between baseline WWI and stroke, restricted cubic splines were employed. Furthermore, subgroup analyses and interaction tests were carried out to investigate potential heterogeneities. Our study cohort comprised 4962 hypertensive individuals aged 60 years or older with no prior history of stroke. Over a median follow-up of 3.2 years, we found 547 new-onset stroke cases. After adjusting for confounding variables, the Cox regression analysis revealed a positive association between baseline WWI and the risk of stroke, with hazard ratios (HRs) escalating progressively as WWI values increased. When compared to the lowest quartile of WWI, the highest quartile demonstrated an HR of 1.87 (95% CI, 1.44–2.42) for stroke. Subgroup analyses confirmed the consistency of this relationship across different demographic and clinical strata. The study findings indicate that an elevated WWI is significantly related with a higher risk of new-onset stroke among elderly patients with hypertension. These results underscore the importance of WWI as a potential risk stratification tool. To confirm these results and explore the causal mechanisms behind the observed correlation, more study is necessary.

Monocyte Count as a Predictor of Major Adverse Limb Events in Aortoiliac Revascularization

Background/Objectives: Atherosclerosis is a leading cause of death, especially in the developed world, and is marked by chronic arterial inflammation and lipid accumulation. As key players in its progression, monocytes contribute to plaque formation, inflammation, and tissue repair. Understanding monocyte involvement is crucial for developing better therapeutic approaches. The objective of this study is to assess the prognostic value of monocytes for limb-related outcomes following revascularization for complex aortoiliac lesions, thereby emphasizing the central role of monocytes in atherosclerosis. Methods: This prospective cohort study-enrolled patients who had undergone elective aortoiliac revascularization at two hospitals between January 2013 and December 2023. Patients with TASC II type D lesions were included, excluding those with aneurysmal disease. Demographic, clinical, and procedural data were gathered, and patients were monitored for limb-related outcomes. Preoperative complete blood counts were analyzed, and statistical analyses, including multivariable Cox regression, were conducted to identify predictors of major adverse limb events (MALE). Results: The study included 135 patients with a mean age of 62.4 ± 9.20 years and predominantly male (93%). Patients were followed for a median of 61 IQR [55.4–66.6] months. Smoking history (91%) was the most prevalent cardiovascular risk factor. Preoperative monocyte count >0.720 × 109/L was associated with worse 30-day limb-related outcomes (MALE: OR 7.138 95% CI: 1.509–33.764, p = 0.013) and long-term outcomes, including secondary patency (p = 0.03), major amputation (p = 0.04), and MALE (p = 0.039). Cox regression analysis confirmed an elevated monocyte count as an independent predictor of MALE (adjusted hazard ratio 2.149, 95% CI: 1.115–4.144, p = 0.022). Conclusions: This study demonstrated that patients with a higher absolute monocyte count may be more exposed to the risk of MALE in patients with aortoiliac TASC II type D lesions undergoing revascularization, with predictive accuracy in both the short and long term. Additionally, it was an independent predictor of major amputation. This new marker has the potential to serve as a cost-effective and easily available tool for risk stratification, helping identify patients at higher risk of MALE.

Clinical implications of persistently increased blood urea nitrogen/serum creatinine ratio (PI-BUN/Cr) in severe COVID-19 patients

BackgroundPatients with COVID-19 may experience a persistent increase in the blood urea nitrogen over creatinine ratio (PI-BUN/Cr). Its elevation could reflect multiple underlying pathophysiological processes beyond prerenal injury but also warrants nuanced interpretation due to its complex interplay with various factors, underscoring the importance of investigating its effects on mortality and acute kidney injury in this population.MethodsWe analized a retrospective and longitudinal cohort of patients admitted to a single center in Mexico City for patients with severe COVID-19. Between March 5, 2020 and August 25, 2021, we included patients with confirmed positive diagnosis for SARS-CoV-2, age > 18 years, disease severity was defined by clinical data of respiratory distress syndrome and a ratio of partial oxygen pressure to inspired oxygen fraction < 300 mmHg on admission. We excluded patients with End Stage Kidney Disease. Data was obtained from electronic medical records. PI-BUN/Cr was defined as an increase in the BUN/Cr ratio > 30 in more than 60% of measurements in the hospital. The outcomes included: risk factors to mortality and AKI in-hospital.ResultsThe cohort included 3,007 patients with a median age of 54.6 ± 14.5 years. 35% of patients died; 44.6% developed PI-BUN/Cr ratio and 71.4% AKI. Mortality was associated with older age > 60 years [Hazard ratio (HR)] = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.28–1.65; p < 0.001); male (HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.09–1.44; p = 0.002) and AKI (HR 3.29, 95% CI 2.42–4.46; p < 0.001); PI-BUN/CR & Non-AKI (HR = 2.82, 95% CI: 1.61–4.93; p < 0.001); Non PI-BUN/CR & AKI (HR = 5.47, 95% CI: 3.54–8.44; p < 0.001); and PI-BUN/CR & AKI (HR = 4.26, 95% CI: 2.75–6.62, p < 0.001). Only hiperuricemia was a risk factor for AKI (HR = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.30–2.25, p < 0.001).ConclusionsWhile PI-BUN/Cr alone may not directly associate with mortality, its capacity to sub-phenotype patients according to their AKI status holds significant promise in offering valuable insights into patient prognosis and outcomes. Understanding the nuanced relationship between PI-BUN/Cr and AKI enhances our comprehension of renal function dynamics. It equips healthcare providers with a refined tool for risk stratification and personalized patient management strategies.