Risk Stratification System Research Articles

Polycythemia vera and essential thrombocythemia of intermediate-age: A real-life, multicenter analysis of first-line treatment approach.

The treatment of patients with polycythemia vera (PV) and essential thrombocythemia (ET) is conducted according to well-defined risk stratification systems. We hypothesized that adherence to the guidelines, namely the decision to refrain from introducing cytoreduction in non-high-risk patients, is particularly difficult in patients diagnosed when they are between 40 and 59 years of age (intermediate-age group). To evaluate the group of intermediate-age PV and ET patients, focusing on a first-line treatment approach adapted at diagnosis. The study group consisted of 308 PV and ET patients recruited from 6 Polish Adult Leukemia Group (PALG) Centers. Patients were analyzed with respect to disease phenotype, risk group, treatment approach, cardiovascular (CV) risk factors, and occurrence of bleeding or thrombosis. Overall, 74% of patients in the study group were started on cytoreduction at diagnosis, including 70% of the low-risk PV patients and 85-89% of the non-high-risk ET patients. Factors influencing the decision to start the treatment included higher hemoglobin (Hb) concentration (in PV) as well as higher platelet (PLT) count, and the presence of CV risk factors (in ET). Introducing cytoreduction at diagnosis had no impact on thrombotic events. Patients harboring CV risk factors experienced a higher incidence of complications both at diagnosis and follow-up, independently of the treatment strategy. We underline the low adherence to recommendations in the treatment of intermediate-age PV and ET patients. Moreover, we emphasize the importance of CV risk factors and stress their impact on disease phenotype in this patient population.

Preconception counselling in women of reproductive age attending cardiology clinics in Scotland

BackgroundGuidelines for the management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) recommend preconception risk stratification and counselling in all women of childbearing age. We assessed the provision of preconception counselling (PCC) among women...

Health-Related Quality of Life of Adolescent and Young Adult-Aged Childhood Cancer Survivors in a South African Cohort: A Pilot Study Using the Minneapolis-Manchester Quality of Life Instrument.

Purpose: We investigated the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of an adolescent and young adult (AYA)-aged South African childhood cancer survivor (CCS) cohort. Methods: Participants completed the Minneapolis-Manchester Quality of Life adolescent and adult forms. The overall Cronbach's alpha coefficients were 0.81 (adolescent form) and 0.92 (adult form). The scale-level content validity indexes were acceptable (0.88 and 0.89 for the adolescent and adult forms, respectively). The total domain and overall HRQoL scores were calculated. Results: Sixty-two survivors completed the adolescent form and 30 completed the adult form. The median age was 17.5 years (range 13-34 years), and the median time from diagnosis was 12 years (male:female ratio 1:1.2). Risk factors for poor physical functioning included age at study visit (p = 0.015), solid tumor diagnosis (p = 0.012), radiotherapy (p = 0.021), and surgery (p = 0.006). Six or more late effects impacted most domains negatively; severe late effects (p = 0.020) decreased physical functioning. Lower socioeconomic status was associated with poorer physical (p = 0.006) and cognitive (p = 0.047) functioning. The adult form cohort had poorer psychological (p = 0.014) and social functioning (p = 0.005) and body image (p = 0.016) than the adolescent form cohort. Conclusion: Older age, radiotherapy, surgery, solid tumor diagnosis, and the number and severity of late effects negatively influenced HRQoL in AYA-aged CCSs. A long-term follow-up (LTFU) risk stratification system should include HRQoL status to assist with holistic LTFU care.

Construction and validation of a nomogram for predicting overall survival of patients with stage III/IV early-onset colorectal cancer.

This study aimed to identify prognostic factors and develop a nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) in stage III/IV early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC). Stage III/IV EO-CRC patients were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2015. The datasets were randomly divided (2:1) into training and validation sets. A nomogram predicting OS was developed based on the prognostic factors identified by Cox regression analysis in the training cohort. Moreover, the predictive performance of the nomogram was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Subsequently, the internal validation was performed using the validation cohort. Finally, a risk stratification system was established based on the constructed nomogram. Of the 10,387 patients diagnosed with stage III/IV EO-CRC between 2010 and 2015 in the SEER database, 8,130 patients were included. In the training cohort (n=3,071), sex, marital status, race/ethnicity, primary site, histologic subtypes, grade, T stage, and N stage were identified as independent prognostic variables for OS. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year area under the curve (AUC) values of the nomogram were robust in both the training (0.751, 0.739, and 0.723) and validation cohorts (0.748, 0.733, and 0.720). ROC, calibration plots, and DCA indicated good predictive performance of the nomogram in both the training and validation sets. Furthermore, patients were categorized into low-, middle-, and high-risk groups based on the nomogram risk score. Kaplan-Meier curve showed significant survival differences between the three groups. We developed a prognostic nomogram and risk stratification system for stage III/IV EO-CRC, which may facilitate clinical decision-making and individual prognosis prediction.

Cost-Effectiveness of the ACR TIRADS Compared to the ATA 2015 Risk Stratification Systems in the Evaluation of Incidental Thyroid Nodules

Rationale and ObjectivesThyroid nodules are a common incidental imaging finding and prone to overdiagnosis. Several risk stratification systems have been developed to reduce unnecessary work-up, with two of the most utilized including the American Thyroid Association 2015 (ATA2015) and the newer American College of Radiology Thyroid Imaging, Reporting and Data System (TIRADS) guidelines. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the cost effectiveness of the ATA2015 versus the TIRADS guidelines in the management of incidental thyroid nodules. MethodsA cost-utility analysis was conducted using decision tree modeling, evaluating adult patients with incidental thyroid nodules <4 cm. Model inputs were populated using published literature, observational data, and expert opinion. Single-payer perspective, Canadian dollar currency, 5-year time horizon, willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of $50,000, and discount rate of 1.5% per annum were utilized. Scenario, deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. The primary outcome was the incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) expressed as incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. ResultsFor the base case scenario, TIRADS dominated the ATA2015 strategy by a slim margin, producing 0.005 more QALYs at $25 less cost. Results were sensitive to the malignancy rate of biopsy and the utilities of a patient with a benign nodule/subclinical malignancy or under surveillance. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that TIRADS was the more cost effective option 79.7% of the time. ConclusionThe TIRADS guidelines may be the more cost-effective strategy by a small margin compared to ATA2015 in most scenarios when used to risk stratify incidental thyroid nodules.

PD-L1 Immunohistochemical Expression in Endometrial Carcinoma: Egyptian Cross-Sectional Study.

Endometrial carcinoma (EC) is the most common cancer of the female genital tract. According to the recently evolved strategies of cancer immunotherapy, immune checkpoints inhibitors are one of the most crucial strategies. Programmed Death Ligand 1 (PD-L1) is an important immune checkpoint regulator. PD-L1 antibodies have shown efficacy in clinical trials of some malignancies. Some of these antibodies have been approved for clinical usage by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). This retrospective study included a total of 100 ECs, collected from archived, formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue blocks of hysterectomy specimens of Egyptian females. The samples were immunohistochemically analyzed for PD-L1 expression (in both tumor cells; TCs and tumor infiltrating leucocytes; TILs) by a semiquantitative score (0 to 4), with cutoff points of (0: <1% of the cells, 1: 1% to 4%, 2: 5% to 9%, 3: 10% to 49%, and 4: ≥ 50%). Membranous staining only was considered positive. PD-L1 was highly expressed in ECs (67% TCs+ and 61% TILs+), with statistically significant relationships with age, lympho-vascular space invasion (LVSI) and TILs score (P = 0.006, 0.016 and <0.005 respectively). However, no statistically significant relationships were detected between PD-L1 expression and the following parameters: histological type, histological grade, pathological stage (pT) or FIGO stage, myometrial, cervical, adnexal/serosal, parametrial involvements and nodal metastasis, as well as ESMO risk stratification system. Moreover, statistically significant relationships were achieved when correlating TILs score with tumor grade and LVSI (P = 0.034 and 0.012 respectively). Also, comparing endometrial hyperplasia (EH) PD-L1 and TCs PDL1 median scores achieved statistically significant relationship (P = 0.001). Our results concluded that PD-L1 expression was greater in both TCs and TILs in a subgroup of patients that have advanced age, LVSI and are TILs-rich, identifying them as potential candidates for anti-PD-1/PD-L1 immunotherapy.

Development and validation of prognostic nomographs for patients with cervical cancer: SEER-based Asian population study

To develop and validate a nomograph to predict the long-term survival probability of cervical cancer (CC) patients in Asia, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) were used to collect information about CC patients in Asia. The patient data were randomly sampled and divided into a training group and a validation group by 7:3. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to screen key indicators, and multivariate Cox regression model was used to establish a prognostic risk prediction model for CC patients. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were adopted to comprehensively evaluate the nomogram model. LASSO regression and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model analysis showed that age, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Stage, AJCC T, tumor size, and surgery were independent risk factors for prognosis. The ROC curve results proved that the area under curve (AUC) values of the training group in 3 and 5 years were 0.837 and 0.818, The AUC values of the validation group in 3 and 5 years were 0.796 and 0.783. DCA showed that the 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) nomograms had good clinical potential value. The nomogram model developed in this study can effectively predict the prognosis of Asian patients with CC, and the risk stratification system based on this nomogram prediction model has some clinical value for discriminating high-risk patients.

Qualitative study exploring the design of a patient-reported symptom-based risk stratification system for suspected head and neck cancer referrals: protocol for work packages 1 and 2 within the EVEREST-HN programme

IntroductionBetween 2009/2010 and 2019/2020, England witnessed an increase in suspected head and neck cancer (sHNC) referrals from 140 to 404 patients per 100 000 population. 1 in 10 patients are...

Identification and validation of a metabolism-related gene signature for predicting the prognosis of paediatric medulloblastoma

Medulloblastoma (MB) is a malignant brain tumour that is highly common in children and has a tendency to spread to the brain and spinal cord. MB is thought to be a metabolically driven brain tumour. Understanding tumour cell metabolic patterns and characteristics can provide a promising foundation for understanding MB pathogenesis and developing treatments. Here, by analysing RNA-seq data of MB samples from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database, 12 differentially expressed metabolic-related genes (DE-MRGs) were chosen for the construction of a predictive risk score model for MB. This model demonstrated outstanding accuracy in predicting the outcomes of MB patients and served as a standalone predictor. An evaluation of functional enrichment revealed that the risk score showed enrichment in pathways related to cancer promotion and the immune response. In addition, a high risk score was an independent poor prognostic factor for MB in patients with different ages, sexes, metastasis stages and subgroups (SHH and Group 4). Consistently, the metabolic enzyme ornithine decarboxylase (ODC1) was upregulated in MB patients with poor survival time. Inhibition of ODC1 in primary and metastatic MB cell lines decreased cell proliferation, migration and invasion but increased immune infiltration. This study could aid in identifying metabolic targets for MB as well as optimizing risk stratification systems and individual treatment plans for MB patients via the use of a metabolism-related gene prognostic risk score signature.

Comparison of ultrasound risk stratification systems for pediatric thyroid nodules.

There is currently insufficient data to validate adult-based US risk stratification systems (RSSs) for the identification of malignant thyroid nodules in a pediatric population. From October 2016 and May 2023, 173 thyroid nodules of pediatric patients (age ≤ 18 years) with definitive pathology results and ultrasound (US) examination within 1 month before surgery or fine-needle aspiration (FNA) biopsy in our institution were enrolled in this study. The clinical and US characteristics of these nodules were retrospectively reviewed and categorized according to the ACR-TIRADS, C-TIRADS, and ATA guidelines. The diagnostic performance of US-based FNA criteria (original and simulating) of the three guidelines in thyroid cancer detection was estimated. The three RSSs had similar AUC according to the categories(0.849-0.852, all P > 0.05). When combined with the original FNA criteria of the three RSSs to manage the nodules, the FNA rate of ACR-TIRADS and C-TIRADS were significantly less than ATA guidelines (53.18% vs. 64.63%, P < 0.05, and 52.60% vs. 64.63%, P < 0.05). The missed malignancy rate (MMR) and unnecessary FNA rate (UFR) of ATA guidelines (50.00%, 35.85%) was highest among the three RSSs, followed by the C-TIRADS (37.80%, 19.57%) and the ACR-TIRADS (37.04%, 19.57%). When nodules < 1cm with the highest category in each RSS biopsied, that is when using the simulating FNA thresholds, the MMR was reduced overall (all P < 0.001), without a change in the UFR (all P > 0.05). All the three RSSs showed a substantial improvement in accuracy and malignant detection rate (all P < 0.05). The ACR-TIRADS, C-TIRADS, and ATA guidelines showed high missed malignancy rates when using their original recommended FNA criteria. When nodules < 1cm with the highest category in each RSS biopsied, the missed malignancy rate of each RSS was decreased. Decreasing the FNA thresholds for highly suspicious malignant nodules may therefore be an effective means of managing malignant thyroid nodules in pediatric patients.

Component Patterns and Survival Outcomes in Patients with Mixed Malignant Ovarian Germ Cell Tumors: A Retrospective Cohort Study

AimsTo evaluate the component patterns and risk stratification in patients with mixed malignant ovarian germ cell tumors (mMOGCT). MethodsA retrospective study of 70 mMOGCT patients treated in our hospital between 2000 and 2022 was conducted. The recurrence-free survival (RFS), disease-specific survival (DSS), and risk stratification systems based on scoring the identified prognostic factors were assessed. ResultsYolk sac tumor component was the most common type (80%), followed by dysgerminoma (50%), immature teratoma (40%), embryonic carcinoma (27.1%), and chorionic carcinoma (15.7%). The 5-year RFS and DSS rates were 77.9% and 87.9%, respectively. International federation of gynecology and obstetrics (FIGO) stage III-IV (RR 3.253, P = 0.029) and normalization of tumor marker (TM) ≤ 3 cycles of chemotherapy (RR 6.249, P = 0.017) were risk factors for RFS and DSS, respectively. Significant DSS (RR 8.268, P = 0.006) was also noted between patients who had normalized TM ≤ 4 and ≥5 cycles of chemotherapy. FIGO stages I–II and stages III–IV were scored as 0 and 2, respectively. AFP normalization ≤3, 4, and ≥5 cycles of chemotherapy were scored as 0, 1, and 4, respectively. A total score of 0, 1–2, and ≥3 stratified patients into low-risk (43 patients), intermediate-risk (13 patients), and high-risk groups (14 patients), respectively. Patients in three risk stratifications manifested significant differences in DSS (P = 0.010) but not in RFS (P > 0.05). ConclusionDistinct different component patterns existed among mMOGCT patients, and predicting survival outcomes in a universal model was challenging.

A Risk Stratification System in Myeloma Patients with Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation.

Autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) has been a mainstay in myeloma treatment for over three decades, but patient prognosis post-ASCT varies significantly. In a retrospective study of 5259 patients with multiple myeloma (MM) at the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences undergoing ASCT with a median 57-month follow-up, we divided the dataset into training (70%) and validation (30%) subsets. Employing univariable and multivariable Cox analyses, we systematically assessed 29 clinical variables, identifying crucial adverse prognostic factors, such as extended duration between MM diagnosis and ASCT, elevated serum ferritin, and reduced transferrin levels. These factors could enhance existing prognostic models. Additionally, we pinpointed significant poor prognosis markers like high serum calcium and low platelet counts, though they are applicable to a smaller patient population. Utilizing seven easily accessible high-risk variables, we devised a four-stage system (ATM4S) with primary stage borders determined through K-adaptive partitioning. This staging system underwent validation in both the training dataset and an independent cohort of 514 ASCT-treated MM patients from the University of Iowa. We also explored cytogenetic risk factors within this staging system, emphasizing its potential clinical utility for refining prognostic assessments and guiding personalized treatment approaches.

Anoikis-related lncRNA signature predicts prognosis and is associated with immune infiltration in hepatocellular carcinoma.

Anoikis is a programmed cell death process triggered when cells are dislodged from the extracellular matrix. Numerous long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) have been identified as significant factors associated with anoikis resistance in various tumor types, including glioma, breast cancer, and bladder cancer. However, the relationship between lncRNAs and the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has received limited research attention. Further research is needed to investigate this potential link and understand the role of lncRNAs in the progression of HCC. We developed a prognostic signature based on the differential expression of lncRNAs implicated in anoikis in HCC. A co-expression network of anoikis-related mRNAs and lncRNAs was established using data obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) for HCC. Cox regression analyses were conducted to formulate an anoikis-related lncRNA signature (ARlncSig) in a training cohort, which was subsequently validated in both a testing cohort and a combined dataset comprising the two cohorts. Receiver operating characteristic curves, nomograms, and decision curve analyses based on the ARlncSig score and clinical characteristics demonstrated robust predictive ability. Moreover, gene set enrichment analysis revealed significant enrichment of several immune processes in the high-risk group compared to the low-risk group. Furthermore, significant differences were observed in immune cell subpopulations, expression of immune checkpoint genes, and response to chemotherapy and immunotherapy between the high- and low-risk groups. Lastly, we validated the expression levels of the five lncRNAs included in the signature using quantitative real-time PCR. In conclusion, our ARlncSig model holds substantial predictive value regarding the prognosis of HCC patients and has the potential to provide clinical guidance for individualized immunotherapy. In this study, we obtained 36 genes associated with anoikis from the Gene Ontology and Gene Set Enrichment Analysis databases. We also identified 22 differentially expressed lncRNAs that were correlated with these genes using data from TCGA. Using Cox regression analyses, we developed an ARlncSig in a training cohort, which was then validated in both a testing cohort and a combined cohort comprising data from both cohorts. Additionally, we collected eight pairs of liver cancer tissues and adjacent tissues from the Affiliated Tumor Hospital of Nantong University for further analysis. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential of ARlncSig as a biomarker for liver cancer prognosis. The study developed a risk stratification system called ARlncSig, which uses five lncRNAs to categorize liver cancer patients into low- and high-risk groups. Patients in the high-risk group exhibited significantly lower overall survival rates compared to those in the low-risk group. The model's predictive performance was supported by various analyses including the receiver operating characteristic curve, nomogram calibration, clinical correlation analysis, and clinical decision curve. Additionally, differential analysis of immune function, immune checkpoint, response to chemotherapy, and immune cell subpopulations revealed significant differences between the high- and low-risk groups. Finally, quantitative real-time PCR validated the expression levels of the five lncRNAs. In conclusion, the ARlncSig model demonstrates critical predictive value in the prognosis of HCC patients and may provide clinical guidance for personalized immunotherapy.

Performance of a Maternal Risk Stratification System for Predicting Low Apgar Scores.

Maternal risk stratification systems are increasingly employed in predicting and preventing obstetric complications. These systems focus primarily on maternal morbidity, and few tools exist to stratify neonatal risk. We sought to determine if a maternal risk stratification score was associated with neonatal morbidity. Retrospective cohort study of patients with liveborn infants born at ≥24 weeks at four hospitals in one health system between January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2020. The Expanded Obstetric Comorbidity Score (EOCS) is used as the maternal risk score. The primary neonatal outcome was 5-minute Apgar <7. Logistic regression models determined associations between EOCS and neonatal morbidity. Secondary analyses were performed, including stratifying outcomes by gestational age and limiting analysis to "low-risk" term singletons. Model discrimination assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and calibration via calibration plots. A total of 14,497 maternal-neonatal pairs were included; 236 (1.6%) had 5-minute Apgar <7; EOCS was higher in 5-minute Apgar <7 group (median 41 vs. 11, p < 0.001). AUC for EOCS in predicting Apgar <7 was 0.72 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.68, 0.75), demonstrating relatively good discrimination. Calibration plot revealed that those in the highest EOCS decile had higher risk of neonatal morbidity (7.6 vs. 1.7%, p < 0.001). When stratified by gestational age, discrimination weakened with advancing gestational age: AUC 0.70 for <28 weeks, 0.63 for 28 to 31 weeks, 0.64 for 32 to 36 weeks, and 0.61 for ≥37 weeks. When limited to term low-risk singletons, EOCS had lower discrimination for predicting neonatal morbidity and was not well calibrated. A maternal morbidity risk stratification system does not perform well in most patients giving birth, at low risk for neonatal complications. The findings suggest that the association between EOCS and 5-minute Apgar <7 likely reflects a relationship with prematurity. This study cautions against intentional or unintentional extrapolation of maternal morbidity risk for neonatal risk, especially for term deliveries. · EOCS had moderate discrimination for Apgar <7.. · Predictive performance declined when limited to low-risk term singletons.. · Relationship between EOCS and Apgar <7 was likely driven by prematurity..

Conditional survival analysis and dynamic survival prediction for intracranial solitary-fibrous tumor/hemangiopericytoma

BackgroundAs the form of World Health Organization Central Nervous System (WHO CNS) tumor classifications is updated, there is a lack of research on outcomes for intracranial combined solitary-fibrous tumor and hemangiopericytoma (SFT/HPC). This study aimed to explore conditional survival (CS) pattern and develop a survival prediction tool for intracranial SFT/HPC patients.MethodsData of intracranial SFT/HPC patients was gathered from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program of the National Cancer Institute. The patients were split into training and validation groups at a 7:3 ratio for our analysis. CS is defined as the likelihood of surviving for a specified period of time (y years), given that the patient has survived x years after initial diagnosis. Then, we used this definition of CS to analyze the intracranial SFT/HPC patients. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and best subset regression (BSR) were employed to identify predictive factors. The Multivariate Cox regression analysis was applied to establish a novel CS-based nomogram, and a risk stratification system was developed using this model.ResultsFrom the SEER database, 401 patients who were diagnosed with intracranial SFT/HPC between 2000 and 2019 were identified. Among them, 280 were included in the training group and 121 were included in the internal validation group for analysis. Our study revealed that in intracranial SFT/HPC, 5-year survival rates saw significant improvement ranging from 78% at initial diagnosis to rates of 83%, 87%, 90%, and 95% with each successive year after surviving for 1–4 years. The LASSO regression and BSR identified patient age, tumor behavior, surgery and radiotherapy as predictors of CS-based nomogram development. A risk stratification system was also successfully constructed to facilitate the identification of high-risk patients.ConclusionThe CS pattern of intracranial SFT/HPC patients was outlined, revealing a notable improvement in 5-year survival rates after an added period of survival. Our newly-established CS-based nomogram and risk stratification system can provide a real-time dynamic survival estimation and facilitate the identification of high-risk patients, allowing clinicians to better guide treatment decision for these patients.

Development and evaluation of nomograms and risk stratification systems to predict the overall survival and cancer-specific survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common type of primary liver cancer, and patients with HCC have a poor prognosis and low survival rates. Establishing a prognostic nomogram is important for predicting the survival of patients with HCC, as it helps to improve the patient’s prognosis. This study aimed to develop and evaluate nomograms and risk stratification to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in HCC patients. Data from 10,302 patients with initially diagnosed HCC were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2017. Patients were randomly divided into the training and validation set. Kaplan–Meier survival, LASSO regression, and Cox regression analysis were conducted to select the predictors of OS. Competing risk analysis, LASSO regression, and Cox regression analysis were conducted to select the predictors of CSS. The validation of the nomograms was performed using the concordance index (C-index), the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), Net Reclassification Index (NRI), Discrimination Improvement (IDI), the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curves, and decision curve analyses (DCAs). The results indicated that factors including age, grade, T stage, N stage, M stage, surgery, surgery to lymph node (LN), Alpha-Fetal Protein (AFP), and tumor size were independent predictors of OS, whereas grade, T stage, surgery, AFP, tumor size, and distant lymph node metastasis were independent predictors of CSS. Based on these factors, predictive models were built and virtualized by nomograms. The C-index for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS were 0.788, 0.792, and 0.790. The C-index for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS were 0.803, 0.808, and 0.806. AIC, BIC, NRI, and IDI suggested that nomograms had an excellent predictive performance with no significant overfitting. The calibration curves showed good consistency of OS and CSS between the actual observation and nomograms prediction, and the DCA showed great clinical usefulness of the nomograms. The risk stratification of OS and CSS was built that could perfectly classify HCC patients into three risk groups. Our study developed nomograms and a corresponding risk stratification system predicting the OS and CSS of HCC patients. These tools can assist in patient counseling and guiding treatment decision making.

Validation of a new risk stratification system-based management for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia: analysis of a multicentre prospective study.

Distinguishing between complicated and uncomplicated Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia (SAB) is therapeutically essential. However, this distinction has limitations in reflecting the heterogeneity of SAB and encouraging targeted diagnostics. Recently, a new risk stratification system for SAB metastatic infection, involving stepwise approaches to diagnosis and treatment, has been suggested. We assessed its applicability in methicillin-resistant SAB (MRSAB) patients. We retrospectively analysed data of a 3-year multicentre, prospective cohort of hospitalised patients with MRSAB. We classified the patients into three risk groups: low, indeterminate, and high, based on the new system and compared between-group management and outcomes. Of 380 patients with MRSAB, 6.3% were classified as low-, 7.6% as indeterminate-, and 86.1% as high-risk for metastatic infection. No metastatic infection occurred in the low-, 6.9% in the indeterminate-, and 19.6% in the high-risk groups (P < 0.001). After an in-depth diagnostic work-up, patients were finally diagnosed as 'without metastatic infection (6.3%)', 'with metastatic infection (17.4%)', and 'uncertain for metastatic infection (76.3%)'. 30-day mortality increased as the severity of diagnosis shifted from 'without metastatic infection' to 'uncertain for metastatic infection' and 'with metastatic infection' (P = 0.09). In multivariable analysis, independent factors associated with metastatic complications were suspicion of endocarditis in transthoracic echocardiography, clinical signs of metastatic infection, Pitt bacteraemia score ≥ 4, and persistent bacteraemia. The new risk stratification system shows promise in predicting metastatic complications and guiding work-up and management of MRSAB. However, reducing the number of cases labelled as 'high-risk' and 'uncertain for metastatic infection' remains an area for improvement.

Head-to-head comparison of American, European, and Asian TIRADSs in thyroid nodule assessment: systematic review and meta-analysis.

Ultrasound-based risk stratification systems (Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data Systems (TIRADSs)) of thyroid nodules (TNs) have been implemented in clinical practice worldwide based on their high performance. However, it remains unexplored whether different TIRADSs perform uniformly across a range of TNs in routine practice. This issue is highly relevant today, given the ongoing international effort to establish a unified TIRADS (i.e. I-TIRADS), supported by the leading societies specializing in TNs. The study aimed to conduct a direct comparison among ACR-, EU-, and K-TIRADS in the distribution of TNs: (1) across the TIRADS categories, and (2) based on their estimated cancer risk. A search was conducted on PubMed and Embase until June 2023. Original studies that sequentially assessed TNs using TIRADSs, regardless of FNAC indication, were selected. General study characteristics and data on the distribution of TNs across TIRADSs were extracted. Seven studies, reporting a total of 41,332 TNs, were included in the analysis. The prevalence of ACR-TIRADS 1-2 was significantly higher than that of EU-TIRADS 2 and K-TIRADS 2, with no significant difference observed among intermediate- and high-risk categories of TIRADSs. According to malignancy risk estimation, K-TIRADS often classified TNs as having more severe risk, ACR-TIRADS as having moderate risk, and EU-TIRADS classified TNs as having lower risk. ACR-, EU-, and K-TIRADS assess TNs similarly across their categories, with slight differences in low-risk classifications. Despite this, focusing on cancer risk estimation, the three TIRADSs assess TNs differently. These findings should be considered as a prerequisite for developing the I-TIRADS.

Quality of life after emergency laparotomy: a systematic review

BackgroundEmergency laparotomy is a commonly performed surgical procedure that has higher post-operative morbidity and mortality than elective surgery. Previous research has identified that patients valued postoperative quality of life (QoL) more than the risk of mortality when deciding to undergo emergency surgery. Current pre-operative scoring and risk stratification systems for emergency laparotomy do not account for or provide prediction tools for post-operative QoL. This study aims to systematically review previous literature to determine post-operative QoL in patients who undergo emergency laparotomy.MethodsA literature search was undertaken in Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library to identify studies measuring post-operative QoL in patients who have had emergency laparotomy up to 29th April 2023. Mean QoL scores from the studies included were combined to calculate the average effect of emergency laparotomy on QoL. The primary outcome of the review was postoperative QoL after emergency laparotomy when compared with a comparator group. Secondary outcomes included the quality of included studies.ResultsTen studies in the literature assessing the QoL of patients after emergency laparotomy were identified. Three studies showed that patients had improved QoL and seven showed worse QoL following emergency laparotomy. Length of time for QoL to return to baseline varied ranged from 3 to 12 months post-operatively. Length of hospital stay was identified as an independent risk factor for poorer QoL post-surgery.ConclusionsOutcome reporting for patients who undergo emergency laparotomy should be expanded further to include QoL. Further work is required to investigate this and elicit factors that can improve QoL post-operatively.

Fukuchi-Manabe Score for Infection Control Measures During the Very Early COVID-19 Pandemic Period When Access to Reverse Transcription-Polymerase Chain Reaction Testing Was Poor in Japan: A Single-Center Observational Prospective Cohort Study.

During the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan, access to reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing was limited. All patients with COVID-19 required hospitalization, and isolation of suspected COVID-19 patients had not yet been implemented. With the recently acquired evidence on COVID-19, it is important to develop a risk stratification system for isolation rooms in the context of limited resources for better resource management. This study aimed to develop and validate a COVID-19 risk-scoring strategy, the Fukuchi-Manabe score, to safely stratify and manage isolation rooms, personal protective equipment (PPE), and RT-PCR testing in the context of limited RT-PCR testing and a short supply of PPE. This single-center prospective study consecutively enrolled suspected COVID-19 adult inpatients between March 1 and August 31, 2020. The primary and secondary outcomes were a positive RT-PCR test and the occurrence of nosocomial infections during the study period, respectively. Factors related to patient history, symptoms, chest computed tomography findings, and laboratory data suggestive of COVID-19 were scored, totaled, and divided into four categories ("probable," "possible," "less likely," and "non-suspicious") based on the likelihood of COVID-19. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were evaluated for each probability category. Twenty of 224 inpatients were positive on the RT-PCR test, including 18 "probable" patients (90.0%), one "possible" patient, and one "less likely" patient. The area under the curve (AUC) (95% confidence interval: 0.841-0.977), sensitivity, and specificity were 0.909, 90.0%, and 80.4%, respectively. The positive and negative predictive values and accuracy for the "probable" category were 0.90, 0.80, and 0.82, respectively. The mean and standard deviation of AUCs, validated by bootstrap analysis, were 0.910±0.034. No nosocomial infections were observed. The Fukuchi-Manabe score will be helpful when other novel pathogens emerge in the future before the availability of genetic testing methods.