Risk Stratification Strategies Research Articles

Staged or Simultaneous Surgery for Colon or Rectal Cancer with Synchronous Liver Metastases: Implications for Study Design and Clinical Endpoints.

In patients presenting with colorectal cancer and synchronous liver metastases, the disease burden related to the liver metastasis is the driving cause of limited longevity and, eventually, risk of death. Surgical resection is the potentially curative treatment for colorectal cancer liver metastases. In the synchronous setting where both the liver metastases and the primary tumor are resectable with a relative low risk, the oncological surgeon and the patient may consider three potential treatment strategies. Firstly, a "staged" or a "simultaneous" surgical approach. Secondly, for a staged strategy, a 'conventional approach' will suggest removal of the primary tumor first (either colon or rectal cancer) and plan for liver surgery after recovery from the first operation. A "Liver first" strategy is prioritizing the liver resection before resection of the primary tumor. Planning a surgical trial investigating a two-organ oncological resection with highly variable extent and complexity of resection as well as the potential impact of perioperative chemo(radio)therapy makes it difficult to find the optimal primary endpoint. Here, we suggest running investigational trials with carefully chosen composite endpoints as well as embedded risk-stratification strategies to identify subgroups of patients who may benefit from simultaneous surgery.

Association of Surgical Complications With Resource Utilization in Adult Congenital Cardiac Surgery

BackgroundAs patients with congenital heart disease are increasingly surviving well into adulthood, the morbidity, mortality, and resource utilization of adult congenital cardiac operations are of increasing interest. Therefore, we evaluated factors associated with perioperative morbidity and outcomes in adults undergoing congenital operations. MethodsThe Nationwide Readmissions Database was tabulated for all adults (≥18 years old) with congenital heart disease between 2010 and 2017. Congenital operations were identified by previously published International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision and Tenth Revision codes. Complications were selected on the basis of The Society of Thoracic Surgeons short list of complications. Multivariable regression models were used to assess adjusted odds ratios (AORs) and β coefficients for select clinical outcomes. ResultsOf 52,360 adults identified who underwent congenital cardiac operations, 14,123 (27%) suffered a complication. The presence of a complication increased the odds of index death (AOR, 11.46; 95% CI, 8.58-15.31), nonhome discharge (AOR, 2.09; 95% CI, 1.91-2.29), 30-day readmission (AOR, 2.12; 95% CI, 1.88-2.39), 90-day readmission (AOR, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.94-2.43), costs (β, +$37,000; 95% CI, $34,000-$40,000), and hospital duration (β, +7.86 days; 95% CI, 7.3-8.4). ConclusionsPerioperative complications portend in-hospital death, resource use, and readmissions in adults undergoing congenital heart operations. As complications are present in 27% of this population, identification of risk stratification and complication-reducing strategies may improve patient morbidity, mortality, and resource utilization.

Abstract 926: Genomics-based personalized oncology of advanced thymic epithelial tumors

Abstract Introduction: Thymic epithelial tumors (TETs) are very rare. Thymoma A and AB have a better prognosis than more aggressive thymoma B, thymic carcinoma (TC) and neuroendocrine tumors of the thymus (NET). While previous efforts such as TCGA have mainly characterized thymomas (Radovich et al., Cancer Cell 2018), the molecular landscape of TCs and NETs is still elusive. Patients and Methods: Between 03/2014 and 07/2020, we enrolled 44 TET patients (27 TCs, 11 thymomas, 6 NETs) in a prospective observational study (MASTER) conducted by the National Center for Tumor Diseases (NCT) Heidelberg, NCT Dresden and the German Cancer Consortium (DKTK). MASTER applied whole genome/exome sequencing (WGS, n=22; WES, n=22), transcriptome (n=40) and germline analysis to inform therapy recommendations by a dedicated molecular tumor board (MTB). We systematically gathered follow-up data to evaluate outcome and compared progression-free survival (PFS) of the first treatment according to an MTB recommendation (PFS2) to the last prior systemic treatment (PFS1) in each patient (PFS ratio). Results: Tumor mutational burden (TMB) was low (median=0.99 mutations/Mb, range 0.08-3.48) but higher than in TCGA (p<0.05). TMB was higher in TCs than in thymoma (p<0.05). Most frequently mutated genes were TP53 (30%), CYLD (16%), SETD2 (14%) and KIT (14%). Germline analysis revealed (likely) pathogenic germline alterations in 25% of patients (MUTYH, n=3; BRCA1, n=2; BRCA2, BAP1, CHEK2, FANCA, TP53, MEN1, n=1). A comprehensive analysis of candidate biomarkers of homologous recombination repair (HRR) defects revealed a subgroup of TET patients with a rationale for PARP inhibitor therapy. Unsupervised clustering of RNA sequencing data mainly revealed clustering that correlated with WHO classification. Additionally, TCs clustered in two subgroups that we identified as immunologically hot and cold tumors using immunohistochemistry validation. Overall survival of patients with hot tumors was significantly longer (p<0.05). The MTB recommended therapies for 42 patients (95%), which were implemented in 24 cases (57%). Five patients had a PFS2 > 6 months and a PFS ratio > 1.3. The best outcome was achieved using imatinib in a patient with a KIT mutation (p.W557R). After progression, the MTB recommended ponatinib based on a secondary KIT mutation (p.V654A). The patient was still on ponatinib when the observation period ended. Conclusion: We demonstrate that comprehensive molecular analysis provides clinically relevant information in a subgroup of TET patients. Thymoma, TCs, and NETs present with different molecular characteristics. Distinction between immunologically hot and cold TCs may have value for risk stratification and therapeutic strategies. PARP inhibition could be a potential new treatment option in a small subgroup of TETs. Molecular testing of KIT, germline analysis and genetic counseling should be recommended for all patients with advanced TETs. Citation Format: Lino Möhrmann, Lysann Rostock, Małgorzata Oleś, Arne Jahn, Marie Arlt, Nagarajan Paramasivam, Korinna Jöhrens, Luise Rupp, Marc Schmitz, Daniela Richter, Sebastian Uhrig, Martina Fröhlich, Barbara Hutter, Jennifer Hüllein, Elena E. Wolf, Dorothea Hanf, Laura Gieldon, Simon Kreutzfeldt, Christoph E. Heilig, Veronica Teleanu, Daniel B. Lipka, Andreas Mock, Ivan Jelas, Damian T. Rieke, Marcel Wiesweg, Melanie Boerries, Anna L. Illert, Alexander Desuki, Thomas Kindler, Angela M. Krackhardt, C. Benedikt Westphalen, Heidrun Grosch, Leonidas Apostolidis, Albrecht Stenzinger, Irina A. Kerle, Christoph Heining, Daniel Hübschmann, Evelin Schröck, Stefan Fröhling, Hanno Glimm. Genomics-based personalized oncology of advanced thymic epithelial tumors [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2023; Part 1 (Regular and Invited Abstracts); 2023 Apr 14-19; Orlando, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(7_Suppl):Abstract nr 926.

Molecular characterisation defines clinically-actionable heterogeneity within Group 4 medulloblastoma and improves disease risk-stratification

Group 4 tumours (MBGrp4) represent the majority of non-WNT/non-SHH medulloblastomas. Their clinical course is poorly predicted by current risk-factors. MBGrp4 molecular substructures have been identified (e.g. subgroups/cytogenetics/mutations), however their inter-relationships and potential to improve clinical sub-classification and risk-stratification remain undefined. We comprehensively characterised the paediatric MBGrp4 molecular landscape and determined its utility to improve clinical management. A clinically-annotated discovery cohort (n = 362 MBGrp4) was assembled from UK-CCLG institutions and SIOP-UKCCSG-PNET3, HIT-SIOP-PNET4 and PNET HR + 5 clinical trials. Molecular profiling was undertaken, integrating driver mutations, second-generation non-WNT/non-SHH subgroups (1–8) and whole-chromosome aberrations (WCAs). Survival models were derived for patients ≥ 3 years of age who received contemporary multi-modal therapies (n = 323). We first independently derived and validated a favourable-risk WCA group (WCA-FR) characterised by ≥ 2 features from chromosome 7 gain, 8 loss, and 11 loss. Remaining patients were high-risk (WCA-HR). Subgroups 6 and 7 were enriched for WCA-FR (p < 0·0001) and aneuploidy. Subgroup 8 was defined by predominantly balanced genomes with isolated isochromosome 17q (p < 0·0001). While no mutations were associated with outcome and overall mutational burden was low, WCA-HR harboured recurrent chromatin remodelling mutations (p = 0·007). Integration of methylation and WCA groups improved risk-stratification models and outperformed established prognostication schemes. Our MBGrp4 risk-stratification scheme defines: favourable-risk (non-metastatic disease and (i) subgroup 7 or (ii) WCA-FR (21% of patients, 5-year PFS 97%)), very-high-risk (metastatic disease with WCA-HR (36%, 5-year PFS 49%)) and high-risk (remaining patients; 43%, 5-year PFS 67%). These findings validated in an independent MBGrp4 cohort (n = 668). Importantly, our findings demonstrate that previously established disease-wide risk-features (i.e. LCA histology and MYC(N) amplification) have little prognostic relevance in MBGrp4 disease. Novel validated survival models, integrating clinical features, methylation and WCA groups, improve outcome prediction and re-define risk-status for ~ 80% of MBGrp4. Our MBGrp4 favourable-risk group has MBWNT-like excellent outcomes, thereby doubling the proportion of medulloblastoma patients who could benefit from therapy de-escalation approaches, aimed at reducing treatment induced late-effects while sustaining survival outcomes. Novel approaches are urgently required for the very-high-risk patients.

Deep genomic characterization highlights complexities and prognostic markers of pediatric acute myeloid leukemia

Pediatric acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is an uncommon but aggressive hematological malignancy. The poor outcome is attributed to inadequate prognostic classification and limited treatment options. A thorough understanding on the genetic basis of pediatric AML is important for the development of effective approaches to improve outcomes. Here, by comprehensively profiling fusion genes as well as mutations and copy number changes of 141 myeloid-related genes in 147 pediatric AML patients with subsequent variant functional characterization, we unveil complex mutational patterns of biological relevance and disease mechanisms including MYC deregulation. Also, our findings highlight TP53 alterations as strong adverse prognostic markers in pediatric AML and suggest the core spindle checkpoint kinase BUB1B as a selective dependency in this aggressive subgroup. Collectively, our present study provides detailed genomic characterization revealing not only complexities and mechanistic insights into pediatric AML but also significant risk stratification and therapeutic strategies to tackle the disease.

Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Corticosteroid Effects in SARS Outbreak: A Model for Risk Stratification and Screening Strategy for Osteonecrosis of Femoral Head Post-Corticosteroid Therapy for COVID-19.

Corticosteroids (CS) have been used in the management regimens for COVID-19 disease to mitigate the cytokine storm and ill effects of the pulmonary inflammatory cascade. With the rampant use of CS, clinicians started reporting the occurrence of osteonecrosis of the femoral head (OFH). In this systematic review, we aim to analyze the literature and identify the definitive cumulative dose and duration of CS needed for the development of OFH based on the SARS model and generate a risk-based screening recommendation for OFH in convalescent COVID-19 patients to facilitate early identification and management. An electronic database search was conducted until December 2022 in PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and CNKI (China Knowledge Resource Integrated Database). Studies involving CS therapy and osteonecrosis data in SARS patients were included. Three authors independently extracted the data from the included studies and a dose-response meta-analysis was performed for various doses and duration of CS utilized in the included studies. We selected 12 articles with 1728 patients in the analysis. The mean age was 33.41 (±4.93) years. The mean dosage of CS administered was 4.64 (±4.7) g which was administered for a mean duration of 29.91 (±12.3) days. The risk of osteonecrosis increases at pooled OR of 1.16 (95% CI 1.09-1.23, p < 0.001) per 2.0 g increase in the cumulative dose of CS usage. Similarly, the risk increases at pooled OR of 1.02 (95% CI 1.01-1.03, p < 0.001) per 5 days of increase in the cumulative duration of CS usage. A cumulative dosage of 4 g and a duration of 15 days were determined as the critical cut-off for the non-linear dose-response relationship observed. Appropriate and frequent screening of these individuals at regular intervals would help in the identification of the disease at an early stage in order to treat them appropriately.

Contrast computed tomography-based radiomics is correlation with COG risk stratification of neuroblastoma.

Although a risk stratification strategy for neuroblastoma (NB) has been proposed, precise and convenient clinical risk estimation remains challenging. This study aimed to investigate the correlation of contrast computed tomography (CT)-based radiomics with NB risk stratification. Patients with NB (n = 289) from two centers (244 and 45 patients in the training/testing and external validation cohorts, respectively) were divided into nonhigh- and high-risk groups. A total of 1648 radiomics features were extracted from the arterial phase, and the radiomics signature was constructed using rad scores, whereas the clinical model was established based on clinical factors. Further, a combined nomogram was developed based on the clinical factors and radiomics signatures. Finally, receiver operating characteristic curve and decision curve analyses (DCA) were used to assess the performance of the established models. Seventeen radiomics features were used to construct the radiomics signature. A significant difference was observed in the rad score between the two groups in the training (0.540 vs. 0.704, P < 0.001) and testing (0.563 vs. 0.969, P < 0.001) cohorts. The nomogram showed a higher area under the curve (AUC) in the training (AUC = 0.87), testing (AUC = 0.83), and external validation (AUC = 0.84) cohorts than other models. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration curves indicated that the nomogram fit perfectly. DCA demonstrated that the clinical-radiomics nomogram was more beneficial. Contrast CT-based radiomics shows correlation with COG risk stratification of NB. Radiomics features combined with clinical factors showed the best performance, which may improve the management of patients with NB.

Predicting Breast Cancer Events in Ductal Carcinoma In Situ (DCIS) Using Generative Adversarial Network Augmented Deep Learning Model.

Standard clinicopathological parameters (age, growth pattern, tumor size, margin status, and grade) have been shown to have limited value in predicting recurrence in ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) patients. Early and accurate recurrence prediction would facilitate a more aggressive treatment policy for high-risk patients (mastectomy or adjuvant radiation therapy), and simultaneously reduce over-treatment of low-risk patients. Generative adversarial networks (GAN) are a class of DL models in which two adversarial neural networks, generator and discriminator, compete with each other to generate high quality images. In this work, we have developed a deep learning (DL) classification network that predicts breast cancer events (BCEs) in DCIS patients using hematoxylin and eosin (H & E) images. The DL classification model was trained on 67 patients using image patches from the actual DCIS cores and GAN generated image patches to predict breast cancer events (BCEs). The hold-out validation dataset (n = 66) had an AUC of 0.82. Bayesian analysis further confirmed the independence of the model from classical clinicopathological parameters. DL models of H & E images may be used as a risk stratification strategy for DCIS patients to personalize therapy.

Contemporary Management and Clinical Course of Acute Pulmonary Embolism: The COPE Study.

New diagnosis, risk stratification, and treatment strategies became recently available for patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) leading to changes in clinical practice and potentially influencing short-term patients' outcomes. The COntemporary management of PE (COPE) study is aimed at assessing the contemporary clinical management and outcomes in patients with acute symptomatic PE. Prospective, noninterventional, multicenter study. The co-primary study outcomes, in-hospital and 30-day death, were reported overall and by risk categories according to the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and American Heart Association guidelines. Among 5,213 study patients, PE was confirmed by computed tomography in 96.3%. In-hospital, 289 patients underwent reperfusion (5.5%), 92.1% received parenteral anticoagulants; at discharge, 75.6% received direct oral anticoagulants and 6.7% vitamin K antagonists. In-hospital and 30-day mortalities were 3.4 and 4.8%, respectively. In-hospital death occurred in 20.3% high-risk patients (n = 177), in 4.0% intermediate-risk patients (n = 3,281), and in 0.5% low-risk patients (n = 1,702) according to ESC guidelines. Further stratification in intermediate-high and intermediate-low risk patients did not reach statistical significance, but intermediate-risk patients with sPESI > 0 alone had lower mortality compared to those with one or both among right ventricular dilation at echocardiography or increased troponin. Death or clinical deterioration occurred in 1.5, 5.0, and 9.4% of patients at low, intermediate-low, and intermediate-high risk for death according to ESC guidelines. For the majority of patients with PE, contemporary initial management includes risk stratification and treatment with direct oral anticoagulants. In-hospital mortality remains high in intermediate and high-risk patients calling for and informing research focused on its reduction. NCT03631810.

Incidence of clinical atrial fibrillation and related complications using a screening algorithm at a nationwide level.

In a recent position paper, the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA) proposed an algorithm for the screening and management of arrhythmias using digital devices. In patients with prior stroke, a systematic screening approach for atrial fibrillation (AF) should always be implemented, preferably immediately after the event. Patients with increasing age and with specific cardiovascular or non-cardiovascular comorbidities are also deemed to be at higher risk. From a large nationwide database, the aim was to analyse AF incidence rates derived from this new EHRA algorithm. Using the French administrative hospital discharge database, all patients hospitalized in 2012 without a history of AF, and with at least a 5-year follow-up (FU) (or if they died earlier), were included. The yearly incidence of AF was calculated in each subgroup defined by the algorithm proposed by EHRA based on a history of previous stroke, increasing age, and eight comorbidities identified via International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision codes. Out of the 4526 104 patients included (mean age 58.9 ± 18.9 years, 64.5% women), 1% had a history of stroke. Among those with no history of stroke, 18% were aged 65-74 years and 21% were ≥75 years. During FU, 327 012 patients had an incidence of AF (yearly incidence 1.86% in the overall population). Implementation of the EHRA algorithm divided the population into six risk groups: patients with a history of stroke (group 1); patients > 75 years (group 2); patients aged 65-74 years with or without comorbidity (groups 3a and 3b); and patients < 65 years with or without comorbidity (groups 4a and 4b). The yearly incidences of AF were 4.58% per year (group 2), 6.21% per year (group 2), 3.50% per year (group 3a), 2.01% per year (group 3b), 1.23% per year (group 4a), and 0.35% per year (group 4b). In patients aged < 65 years, the annual incidence of AF increased progressively according to the number of comorbidities from 0.35% (no comorbidities) to 9.08% (eight comorbidities). For those aged 65-75 years, the same trend was observed, i.e. increasing from 2.01% (no comorbidities) to 11.47% (eight comorbidities). These findings at a nationwide scale confirm the relevance of the subgroups in the EHRA algorithm for identifying a higher risk of AF incidence, showing that older patients (>75 years, regardless of comorbidities) have a higher incidence of AF than those with prior ischaemic stroke. Further studies are needed to evaluate the usefulness of algorithm-based risk stratification strategies for AF screening and the impact of screening on major cardiovascular event rates.

Evaluation of the European Society of Cardiology/European Respiratory Society derived three- and four-strata risk stratification models in pulmonary arterial hypertension: introducing an internet-based risk stratification calculator.

Estimation of prognosis in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) has been influenced by that various risk stratification models use different numbers of prognostic parameters, as well as the lack of a comprehensive and time-saving risk assessment calculator. We therefore evaluated the various European Society of Cardiology (ESC)-/European Respiratory Society (ERS)-based three- and four-strata risk stratification models and established a comprehensive internet-based calculator to facilitate risk assessment. Between 1 January 2000 and 26 July 2021, 773 clinical assessments on 169 incident PAH patients were evaluated at diagnosis and follow-ups. Risk scores were calculated using the original Swedish Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Registry (SPAHR)/Comparative, Prospective Registry of Newly Initiated Therapies for Pulmonary Hypertension (COMPERA) three-strata model, the updated SPAHR three-strata model with divided intermediate risk, and the simplified three-parameter COMPERA 2.0 four-strata model. The original SPAHR/COMPERA and the updated SPAHR models were tested for both 3-6 and 7-11 available parameters, respectively. Prognostic accuracy [area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC)] and Uno's cumulative/time-dependent C-statistics (uAUC) were calculated for 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality. At baseline, both the original SPAHR/COMPERA and the updated SPAHR models, using up to six parameters, provided the highest accuracy (uAUC = 0.73 for both models) in predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality. At follow-ups, the updated SPAHR model with divided intermediate risk (7-11 parameters) provided the highest accuracy for 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality (uAUC = 0.90), followed by the original SPAHR/COMPERA model (7-11 parameters) (uAUC = 0.88) and the COMPERA 2.0 model (uAUC = 0.85). The present study facilitates risk assessment in PAH by introducing a comprehensive internet-based risk score calculator (https://www.svefph.se/risk-stratification). At baseline, utilizing the original or the updated SPAHR models using up to six parameters was favourable, the latter model additionally offering sub-characterization of the intermediate risk group. Our findings support the 2022 ESC/ERS pulmonary hypertension guidelines' strategy for risk stratification suggesting the utilization of a three-strata model at baseline and a simplified four-strata model at follow-ups. Our findings furthermore support the utility of the updated SPAHR model with divided intermediate risk, when a more comprehensive assessment is needed at follow-ups, complementing the three-parameter COMPERA 2.0 model. Larger multi-centre studies are encouraged to validate the utility of the updated SPAHR model. By introducing an internet-based risk score calculator (https://www.svefph.se/risk-stratification), risk assessment is facilitated. Our results support the 2022 ESC/ERS pulmonary hypertension guidelines' risk stratification strategy, additionally suggesting the updated SPAHR three-strata model with divided intermediate risk, as a promising complement to the new simplified three-parameter COMPERA 2.0 four-strata strategy, when a more comprehensive overview is needed.

Whole-genome sequencing analysis in families with recurrent pregnancy loss: A pilot study.

One to two percent of couples suffer recurrent pregnancy loss and over 50% of the cases are unexplained. Whole genome sequencing (WGS) analysis has the potential to identify previously unrecognized causes of pregnancy loss, but few studies have been performed, and none have included DNA from families including parents, losses, and live births. We conducted a pilot WGS study in three families with unexplained recurrent pregnancy loss, including parents, healthy live births, and losses, which included an embryonic loss (<10 weeks' gestation), fetal deaths (10-20 weeks' gestation) and stillbirths (≥ 20 weeks' gestation). We used the Illumina platform for WGS and state-of-the-art protocols to identify single nucleotide variants (SNVs) following various modes of inheritance. We identified 87 SNVs involving 75 genes in embryonic loss (n = 1), 370 SNVs involving 228 genes in fetal death (n = 3), and 122 SNVs involving 122 genes in stillbirth (n = 2). Of these, 22 de novo, 6 inherited autosomal dominant and an X-linked recessive SNVs were pathogenic (probability of being loss-of-function intolerant >0.9), impacting known genes (e.g., DICER1, FBN2, FLT4, HERC1, and TAOK1) involved in embryonic/fetal development and congenital abnormalities. Further, we identified inherited missense compound heterozygous SNVs impacting genes (e.g., VWA5B2) in two fetal death samples. The variants were not identified as compound heterozygous SNVs in live births and population controls, providing evidence for haplosufficient genes relevant to pregnancy loss. In this pilot study, we provide evidence for de novo and inherited SNVs relevant to pregnancy loss. Our findings provide justification for conducting WGS using larger numbers of families and warrant validation by targeted sequencing to ascertain causal variants. Elucidating genes causing pregnancy loss may facilitate the development of risk stratification strategies and novel therapeutics.

Performance of American Gastroenterological Association Clinical Care Pathway for the risk stratification of patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in the US population.

The American Gastroenterological Association (AGA) recently launched the Clinical Care Pathway for the Risk Stratification and Management of Patients with NAFLD to identify adults with significant fibrosis. We aimed to examine this pathway's performance in the US population. Using the 2017-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data, we identified participants aged ≥18 with available Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) in the absence of other liver diseases. Based on the AGA clinical pathway, FIB-4 < 1.3 and LSM < 8 kilopascals (kPa) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) are associated with low risk of significant fibrosis. Using these cutoffs, we examined the pathway performance using negative predictive value (NPV) and positive predictive value (PPV) and explored alternative risk-stratification strategies. There were 2322 participants with available data (projected to 94.2 million US adults). The NPV of LSM ≥ 8 kPa among those with FIB-4 < 1.3 was 90%, whereas the PPV among those with FIB-4 1.3-2.67 was 13%. As diabetes was a strong predictor of fibrosis, we propose a simple, alternative strategy to eliminate the indeterminate FIB-4 range and perform VCTE in those with FIB-4 ≥ 1.3 and diabetes. This strategy would decrease the number of VCTEs from 14.5 to 4.9 million and increase PPV from 13% to 33% without compromising the NPV among those who did not undergo VCTE. The implementation of the current AGA clinical pathway would lead to overutilization of VCTE. An alternative strategy using FIB-4 ≥ 1.3 and diabetes to select adults undergoing second-line testing will improve this pathway's performance and minimize unnecessary VCTEs.

Sputum Microbiome and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in a Rural Ugandan Cohort of Well-Controlled HIV Infection.

Sub-Saharan Africa has increased morbidity and mortality related to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). COPD among people living with HIV (PLWH) has not been well studied in this region, where HIV/AIDS is endemic. Increasing evidence suggests that respiratory microbial composition plays a role in COPD severity. Therefore, we aimed to investigate microbiome patterns and associations among PLWH with COPD in Sub-Saharan Africa. We conducted a cross-sectional study of 200 adults stratified by HIV and COPD in rural Uganda. Induced sputum samples were collected as an easy-to-obtain proxy for the lower respiratory tract microbiota. We performed 16S rRNA gene sequencing and used PICRUSt2 (version 2.2.3) to infer the functional profiles of the microbial community. We used a statistical tool to detect changes in specific taxa that searches and adjusts for confounding factors such as antiretroviral therapy (ART), age, sex, and other participant characteristics. We could cluster the microbial community into three community types whose distribution was shown to be significantly impacted by HIV. Some genera, e.g., Veillonella, Actinomyces, Atopobium, and Filifactor, were significantly enriched in HIV-infected individuals, while the COPD status was significantly associated with Gammaproteobacteria and Selenomonas abundance. Furthermore, reduced bacterial richness and significant enrichment in Campylobacter were associated with HIV-COPD comorbidity. Functional prediction using PICRUSt2 revealed a significant depletion in glutamate degradation capacity pathways in HIV-positive patients. A comparison of our findings with an HIV cohort from the United Kingdom revealed significant differences in the sputum microbiome composition, irrespective of viral suppression. IMPORTANCE Even with ART available, HIV-infected individuals are at high risk of suffering comorbidities, as shown by the high prevalence of noninfectious lung diseases in the HIV population. Recent studies have suggested a role for the respiratory microbiota in driving chronic lung inflammation. The respiratory microbiota was significantly altered among PLWH, with disease persisting up to 3 years post-ART initiation and HIV suppression. The community structure and diversity of the sputum microbiota in COPD are associated with disease severity and clinical outcomes, both in stable COPD and during exacerbations. Therefore, a better understanding of the sputum microbiome among PLWH could improve COPD prognostic and risk stratification strategies. In this study, we observed that in a virologically suppressed HIV cohort in rural Uganda, we could show differences in sputum microbiota stratified by HIV and COPD, reduced bacterial richness, and significant enrichment in Campylobacter associated with HIV-COPD comorbidity.

Public Preferences for Determining Eligibility for Screening in Risk-Stratified Cancer Screening Programs: A Discrete Choice Experiment.

Risk stratification has been proposed to improve the efficiency of population-level cancer screening. We aimed to describe and quantify the relative importance of different attributes of potential screening programs among the public, focusing on stratifying eligibility. We conducted a discrete choice experiment in which respondents selected between 2 hypothetical screening programs in a series of 9 questions. We presented the risk factors used to determine eligibility (age, sex, or lifestyle or genetic risk scores) and anticipated outcomes based on eligibility criteria with different sensitivity and specificity levels. We performed conditional logit regression models and used the results to estimate preferences for different approaches. We also analyzed free-text comments on respondents' views on the programs. A total of 1,172 respondents completed the survey. Sensitivity was the most important attribute (7 and 11 times more important than specificity and risk factors, respectively). Eligibility criteria based on age and sex or genetics were preferred over age alone and lifestyle risk scores. Phenotypic and polygenic risk prediction models would be more acceptable than screening everyone aged 55 to 70 y if they had high discrimination (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve ≥0.75 and 0.80, respectively). Although our sample was representative with respect to age, sex, and ethnicity, it may not be representative of the UK population regarding other important characteristics. Also, some respondents may have not understood all the information provided to inform decision making. The public prioritized lives saved from cancer over reductions in numbers screened or experiencing unnecessary follow-up. Incorporating personal-level risk factors into screening eligibility criteria is acceptable to the public if it increases sensitivity; therefore, maximizing sensitivity in model development and communication could increase uptake. The public prioritized lives saved when considering changing from age-based eligibility criteria to risk-stratified cancer screening over reductions in numbers of people being screened or experiencing unnecessary follow-up.The risk stratification strategy used to do this was the least important component, although age plus sex or genetics were relatively preferable to using age alone and lifestyle risk scores.Communication strategies that emphasize improvements in the numbers of cancers detected or not missed across the population are more likely to be salient than reductions in unnecessary investigations or follow-up among some groups.Future research should focus on developing implementation strategies that maximize gains in sensitivity within the context of resource constraints and how to present attributes relating to specificity to facilitate understanding and informed decision making.

Sex differences in risk factors for end-stage kidney disease and death in type 2 diabetes: A retrospective cohort study.

This study investigated the sex differences in the risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and mortality, as well as the effect modification of sex on associated factors in patients with type 2 diabetes. This multicenter observational cohort study included 4328 patients with type 2 diabetes. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of sex for ESKD and death were estimated using Cox proportional regression with adjustment for baseline covariates. For assessing risk modification, HRs and incidence rates for ESKD and death were compared between sexes across patient characteristics using Cox proportional and Poisson regression models. During a median follow-up of 7 years, 276 patients (70% men) developed ESKD, and 241 patients (68% men) died. Men had higher risks of ESKD (HR 1.34; 95% CI 1.02-1.75; p=.034) and death (HR 1.64; 95% CI 1.24-2.16; p=.001) versus women after adjusting for multiple covariates. Among patients with microalbuminuria, men had a substantially higher risk of ESKD versus women, compared to those with normo- and macroalbuminuria (p for interaction .04). Incidence rates were also increased in men versus women with albuminuria of around 300 mg/g. No differences were detected in the association of sex and death across baseline patient subgroups. In type 2 diabetes, men had an increased risk of ESKD and death versus women. Moderately increased albuminuria was strongly associated with sex difference in developing ESKD.

Association of Modifiable Health Conditions and Social Determinants of Health With Late Mortality in Survivors of Childhood Cancer

Associations between modifiable chronic health conditions (CHCs), social determinants of health, and late mortality (defined as death occurring ≥5 years after diagnosis) in childhood cancer survivors are unknown. To explore associations between modifiable CHCs and late mortality within the context of social determinants of health. This longitudinal cohort study used data from 9440 individuals who were eligible to participate in the St Jude Lifetime Cohort (SJLIFE), a retrospective cohort study with prospective clinical follow-up that was initiated in 2007 to characterize outcomes among childhood cancer survivors. Eligible individuals had survived 5 or more years after childhood cancer diagnosis, were diagnosed between 1962 and 2012, and received treatment at St Jude Children's Research Hospital were included in mortality estimates. A total of 3407 adult SJLIFE participants (aged ≥18 years) who completed an on-campus assessment were included in risk factor analyses. Vital status, date of death, and cause of death were obtained by linkage with the National Death Index (coverage from inception to December 31, 2016). Deaths occurring before inception of the National Death Index were obtained from the St Jude Children's Research Hospital Cancer Registry. Data were analyzed from June to December 2022. Data on treatment exposures and causes of death were abstracted for individuals who were eligible to participate in the SJLIFE study. Information on modifiable CHCs (dyslipidemia, hypertension, diabetes, underweight or obesity, bone mineral deficiency, hypogonadism, hypothyroidism, and adrenal insufficiency, all graded by the modified Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events), healthy lifestyle index (smoking status, alcohol consumption, body mass index [calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared], and physical activity), area deprivation index (ADI; which measures neighborhood-level socioeconomic disadvantage), and frailty (low lean muscle mass, exhaustion, low energy expenditure, slowness, and weakness) was obtained for participants. National Death Index causes of death were used to estimate late mortality using standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and 95% CIs, which were calculated based on US mortality rates. For the risk factor analyses (among participants who completed on-campus assessment), multivariable piecewise exponential regression analysis was used to estimate rate ratios (RRs) and 95% CIs for all-cause and cause-specific late mortality. Among 9440 childhood cancer survivors who were eligible to participate in the SJLIFE study, the median (range) age at assessment was 27.5 (5.3-71.9) years, and the median (range) duration of follow-up was 18.8 (5.0-58.0) years; 55.2% were male and 75.3% were non-Hispanic White. Survivors experienced increases in all-cause mortality (SMR, 7.6; 95% CI, 7.2-8.1) and health-related late mortality (SMR, 7.6; 95% CI, 7.0-8.2). Among 3407 adult SJLIFE participants who completed an on-campus assessment, the median (range) age at assessment was 35.4 (17.9-69.8) years, and the median (range) duration of follow-up was 27.3 (7.3-54.7) years; 52.5% were male and 81.7% were non-Hispanic White. Models adjusted for attained age, sex, race and ethnicity, age at diagnosis, treatment exposures, household income, employment status, and insurance status revealed that having 1 modifiable CHC of grade 2 or higher (RR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2-4.0; P = .01), 2 modifiable CHCs of grade 2 or higher (RR, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.4-4.9; P = .003), or 3 modifiable CHCs of grade 2 or higher (RR, 3.6; 95% CI, 1.8-7.1, P < .001); living in a US Census block with an ADI in the 51st to 80th percentile (RR, 5.5; 95% CI, 1.3-23.5; P = .02), an ADI in the 81st to 100th percentile (RR, 8.7; 95% CI, 2.0-37.6; P = .004), or an unassigned ADI (RR, 15.7; 95% CI, 3.5-70.3; P < .001); and having frailty (RR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.3-3.9; P = .004) were associated with significant increases in the risk of late all-cause death. Similar associations were observed for the risk of late health-related death (1 modifiable CHC of grade ≥2: RR, 2.2 [95% CI, 1.1-4.4; P = .02]; 2 modifiable CHCs of grade ≥2: RR, 2.5 [95% CI, 1.2-5.2; P = .01]; 3 modifiable CHCs of grade ≥2: RR, 4.0 [95% CI, 1.9-8.4; P < .001]; ADI in 51st-80th percentile: RR, 9.2 [95% CI, 1.2-69.7; P = .03]; ADI in 81st-100th percentile: RR, 16.2 [95% CI, 2.1-123.7; P = .007], unassigned ADI: RR, 27.3 [95% CI, 3.5-213.6; P = .002]; and frailty: RR, 2.3 [95% CI, 1.2-4.1; P = .009]). In this cohort study of childhood cancer survivors, living in a Census block with a high ADI and having modifiable CHCs were independently associated with an increased risk of late death among survivors of childhood cancer. Future investigations seeking to mitigate these factors will be important to improving health outcomes and developing risk-stratification strategies to optimize care delivery to childhood cancer survivors.

Identification and validation of a novel cuproptosis-related genes signature associated with prognosis, clinical implications and immunotherapy of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Background: Cuproptosis is a novel type of regulated cell death and is reported to promote tumor occurrence and progression. However, whether a cuproptosis-related signature has an impact on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still unclear. Materials and methods: We analyzed the transcriptome data of HCC from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) database, and searched for tumor types with different cuproptosis patterns through consistent clustering of cuproptosis genes. We then constructed a Cuproptosis-Related Genes (CRGs)-based risk signature through LASSO COX regression, and further analyzed its impact on the prognosis, clinical characteristics, immune cell infiltration, and drug sensitivity of HCC. Results: We identified the expression changes of 10 cuproptosis-related genes in HCC, and all the patients can be divided into two subtypes with different prognosis by applying the consensus clustering algorithm. We then constructed a cuproptosis-related risk signature and identified five CRGs, which were highly correlated with prognosis and representative of this gene set, namely G6PD, PRR11, KIF20A, EZH2, and CDCA8. Patients in the low CRGs signature group had a favorable prognosis. We further validated the CRGs signature in ICGC cohorts and got consistent results. Besides, we also discovered that the CRGs signature was significantly associated with a variety of clinical characteristics, different immune landscapes and drug sensitivity. Moreover, we explored that the high CRGs signature group was more sensitive to immunotherapy. Conclusion: Our integrative analysis demonstrated the potential molecular signature and clinical applications of CRGs in HCC. The model based on CRGs can precisely predict the survival outcomes of HCC, and help better guide risk stratification and treatment strategy for HCC patients.

Brugada Syndrome: From Molecular Mechanisms and Genetics to Risk Stratification

Brugada syndrome (BrS) is a rare hereditary arrhythmia disorder, with a distinctive ECG pattern, correlated with an increased risk of ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death (SCD) in young adults. BrS is a complex entity in terms of mechanisms, genetics, diagnosis, arrhythmia risk stratification, and management. The main electrophysiological mechanism of BrS requires further research, with prevailing theories centered on aberrant repolarization, depolarization, and current-load match. Computational modelling, pre-clinical, and clinical research show that BrS molecular anomalies result in excitation wavelength (k) modifications, which eventually increase the risk of arrhythmia. Although a mutation in the SCN5A (Sodium Voltage-Gated Channel Alpha Subunit 5) gene was first reported almost two decades ago, BrS is still currently regarded as a Mendelian condition inherited in an autosomal dominant manner with incomplete penetrance, despite the recent developments in the field of genetics and the latest hypothesis of additional inheritance pathways proposing a more complex mode of inheritance. In spite of the extensive use of the next-generation sequencing (NGS) technique with high coverage, genetics remains unexplained in a number of clinically confirmed cases. Except for the SCN5A which encodes the cardiac sodium channel NaV1.5, susceptibility genes remain mostly unidentified. The predominance of cardiac transcription factor loci suggests that transcriptional regulation is essential to the Brugada syndrome's pathogenesis. It appears that BrS is a multifactorial disease, which is influenced by several loci, each of which is affected by the environment. The primary challenge in individuals with a BrS type 1 ECG is to identify those who are at risk for sudden death, researchers propose the use of a multiparametric clinical and instrumental strategy for risk stratification. The aim of this review is to summarize the latest findings addressing the genetic architecture of BrS and to provide novel perspectives into its molecular underpinnings and novel models of risk stratification.

Explainable Machine Learning Techniques To Predict Amiodarone-Induced Thyroid Dysfunction Risk: Multicenter, Retrospective Study With External Validation

Machine learning offers new solutions for predicting life-threatening, unpredictable amiodarone-induced thyroid dysfunction. Traditional regression approaches for adverse-effect prediction without time-series consideration of features have yielded suboptimal predictions. Machine learning algorithms with multiple data sets at different time points may generate better performance in predicting adverse effects. We aimed to develop and validate machine learning models for forecasting individualized amiodarone-induced thyroid dysfunction risk and to optimize a machine learning-based risk stratification scheme with a resampling method and readjustment of the clinically derived decision thresholds. This study developed machine learning models using multicenter, delinked electronic health records. It included patients receiving amiodarone from January 2013 to December 2017. The training set was composed of data from Taipei Medical University Hospital and Wan Fang Hospital, while data from Taipei Medical University Shuang Ho Hospital were used as the external test set. The study collected stationary features at baseline and dynamic features at the first, second, third, sixth, ninth, 12th, 15th, 18th, and 21st months after amiodarone initiation. We used 16 machine learning models, including extreme gradient boosting, adaptive boosting, k-nearest neighbor, and logistic regression models, along with an original resampling method and 3 other resampling methods, including oversampling with the borderline-synthesized minority oversampling technique, undersampling-edited nearest neighbor, and over- and undersampling hybrid methods. The model performance was compared based on accuracy; Precision, recall, F1-score, geometric mean, area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC). Feature importance was determined by the best model. The decision threshold was readjusted to identify the best cutoff value and a Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed. The training set contained 4075 patients from Taipei Medical University Hospital and Wan Fang Hospital, of whom 583 (14.3%) developed amiodarone-induced thyroid dysfunction, while the external test set included 2422 patients from Taipei Medical University Shuang Ho Hospital, of whom 275 (11.4%) developed amiodarone-induced thyroid dysfunction. The extreme gradient boosting oversampling machine learning model demonstrated the best predictive outcomes among all 16 models. The accuracy; Precision, recall, F1-score, G-mean, AUPRC, and AUROC were 0.923, 0.632, 0.756, 0.688, 0.845, 0.751, and 0.934, respectively. After readjusting the cutoff, the best value was 0.627, and the F1-score reached 0.699. The best threshold was able to classify 286 of 2422 patients (11.8%) as high-risk subjects, among which 275 were true-positive patients in the testing set. A shorter treatment duration; higher levels of thyroid-stimulating hormone and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; and lower levels of free thyroxin, alkaline phosphatase, and low-density lipoprotein were the most important features. Machine learning models combined with resampling methods can predict amiodarone-induced thyroid dysfunction and serve as a support tool for individualized risk prediction and clinical decision support.