Heart Failure Risk Score Research Articles

Predictive Ability of Pressure-Corrected Arterial Stiffness Indices: Comparison of Pulse Wave Velocity, Cardio-Ankle Vascular Index (CAVI), and CAVI0.

BACKGROUNDPulse wave velocity (PWV) is blood pressure (BP) dependent, leading to the development of the BP-corrected metrics cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI) and CAVI0. We aimed to assess risk prediction by heart-to-ankle PWV (haPWV), CAVI, and CAVI0 in a US population.METHODSWe included 154 subjects (94.8% male; 47.7% African American) with and without heart failure (HF). Left and right haPWV, CAVI, and CAVI0 were measured with the VaSera 1500N device. We prospectively followed participants for a mean of 2.56 years for the composite endpoint death or HF-related hospital admission (DHFA).RESULTSLeft and right haPWV, CAVI, and CAVI0 values did not differ significantly. In unadjusted analyses, haPWV (left standardized hazard ratio [HR] = 1.51, P = 0.007; right HR = 1.66, P = 0.003), CAVI (left HR = 1.45, P = 0.012; right HR = 1.58, P = 0.006), and CAVI0 (left HR = 1.39, P = 0.022; right HR = 1.44, P = 0.014) significantly predicted DHFA. Predictive ability showed a decreasing trend from haPWV to CAVI to CAVI0; in line with the increasing amount of BP correction in these metrics. In Cox models, right-sided metrics showed a trend toward stronger predictive ability than left-sided metrics. After adjustment for baseline HF status, the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) risk score, and systolic BP, right haPWV (HR = 1.58, P = 0.025) and CAVI (HR = 1.44, P = 0.044), but no other stiffness metrics, remained predictive.CONCLUSIONSAlthough conceptually attractive, BP-corrected arterial stiffness metrics do not offer better prediction of DHFA than conventional arterial stiffness metrics, nor do they predict DHFA independently of systolic BP. Our findings support PWV as the primary arterial stiffness metric for outcome prediction.

Triage-HF plus: 12-month study of remote monitoring pathway for triage of heart failure risk initiated during the Covid-19 pandemic

Abstract Background The Covid-19 pandemic necessitated rapid adoption of remote monitoring across cardiovascular patient cohorts. Most patients with cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIEDs) are now able to be remotely monitored using either scheduled, patient- or threshold-triggered transmissions. The validated “Triage Heart Failure Risk Score” (Triage-HFRS) is a medical algorithm within company-specific CIEDs that can risk-stratify patients as low-, medium- or high-risk of worsening heart failure (WHF) in the next 30 days based on integrated monitoring of physiological parameters. Building on a previous proof-of-concept of the Triage-HF Plus pathway, we integrated remote data with simple 5-question telephone triage within a clinical pathway to identify WHF during the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic. Purpose Prospective evaluation of clinical remote monitoring pathway integrating Triage-HFRS with protocolised telephone triage (Triage-HF Plus pathway). Methods Prospective, real-world evaluation of clinical pathway serving a large urban region over a 12-month period, using data from April 2020 to April 2021 (initiated during the first wave of Covid-19 pandemic in the UK). From a population of 435 patients with CIEDs, 87 “high” Triage-HFRS alerts were received and patients contacted for telephone triage assessment. Screening questions were designed to identify episodes of WHF and non-HF events. Intervention was at discretion of the clinical practitioner and in line with guideline-directed practice. A consecutive sample of 115 “medium” risk scores received the same triage. Results Successful contact was made with 72 (82.8%) high-risk patients. Classification for high scoring patients confirmed on triage included isolated heart failure (18.3%), heart failure concurrent to medical problem (5.7%), alternative medical problem (10.3%), and recent hospital admission (8.0%); triage reassured absence of acute cause of high score in 40.2%. The sensitivity and specificity for detection of WHF was 87.9% (0.77–0.99) and 59.4% (0.50–0.69) respectively. Positive and negative predictive values were 40.3% and 94.0%, respectively. Overall accuracy was 66.2%. Conclusions The Triage-HF Plus pathway served as a useful remote monitoring tool for identifying patients with WHF whose care had been otherwise disrupted by the Covid-19 pandemic, allowing timely intervention and cementing the longer-term role for such models of care delivery. Crucially, in this multimorbid, high-cost population, relevant non-HF issues were also identified. The high negative predictive value further highlights the potential of proactive surveillance over conventional, periodic follow up. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): Imperial Health Charity

Clinical significance of spleen size in patients with heart failure

Abstract Background The spleen is an important organ that stores blood, releases erythrocytes or monocytes, and destroys no-longer-needed platelets. It can reserve 20–30% of the total blood volume, and its size is reduced in hypovolemic shock. However, the clinical significance of the spleen size in patients with heart failure (HF) remains unclear. Purpose The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between spleen size, hemodynamic parameters, and prognosis in patients with HF. Methods A total of 219 patients with clinically stable HF were enrolled. All patients underwent right heart catheterisation and computed tomography. The spleen size was measured using computed tomography volumetry. In addition, spleen volume was assessed using the spleen volume index (SVI), corrected for body surface area. Cardiac events were composite endpoints of cardiac death, hospitalisation for worsening HF, fatal arrhythmias, implantation of cardiac devices, implantation of left ventricular assist devices, and unexpected percutaneous coronary intervention or cardiac surgery. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was used to examine the relationship between spleen volume and hemodynamic parameters. Multivariate Cox hazard regression models were used to investigate whether SVI was an independent determinant of cardiac events. Results Of the 219 patients (median age, 54 [interquartile range] 46–64 years), 145 (66%) were males. The median (interquartile range) spleen volume and SVI was 118.0 (91.5–156.0) mL and 67.8 (54.9–87.2) mL/m2, respectively. SVI was positively correlated with cardiac output (r=0.269, P<0.001), and negatively correlated with systemic vascular resistance (r=−0.302, P<0.001) (Figure 1). A total of 70 cardiac events were observed, and the optimal cut-off value of SVI for cardiac events was 68.9 mL/m2 in the receiver operating characteristic analysis. Patients were divided into two groups: low-SVI (n=107, <68.9 mL/m2) and high-SVI groups (n=112, ≥68.9 mL/m2). Blood adrenaline concentration was higher in the low-SVI group than in the high-SVI group (0.039 [0.020–0.057] ng/mL vs 0.026 [0.014–0.044] ng/mL, P=0.004). The low-SVI group had more cardiac events than the high-SVI group (log-rank test, P<0.001) (Figure 2). In the multivariate Cox proportional hazard model, the low-SVI group was an independent predictor of cardiac events, even when adjusted for the conventional validated HF risk score, blood catecholamine levels, and hemodynamic parameters. Conclusion The spleen size may affect the prognosis in patients with HF, reflecting haemodynamics, including systemic circulating blood volume status and sympathetic nerve activity. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None. Figure 1Figure 2

Head-to-head comparison of contemporary heart failure risk scores.

Several heart failure (HF) web-based risk scores are currently used in clinical practice. Currently, we lack head-to-head comparison of the accuracy of risk scores. This study aimed to assess correlation and mortality prediction performance of Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC-HF) risk score, which includes clinical variables + medications; Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM), which includes clinical variables + treatments + analytes; PARADIGM Risk of Events and Death in the Contemporary Treatment of Heart Failure (PREDICT-HF) and Barcelona Bio-Heart Failure (BCN-Bio-HF) risk calculator, which also include biomarkers, like N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). A total of 1166 consecutive patients with HF from different aetiologies that had NT-proBNP measurement at first visit were included. Discrimination for all-cause mortality was compared by Harrell's C-statistic from 1 to 5 years, when possible. Calibration was assessed by calibration plots and Hosmer-Lemeshow test and global performance by Nagelkerke's R2 . Correlation between scores was assessed by Spearman rank test. Correlation between the scores was relatively poor (rho value from 0.66 to 0.79). Discrimination analyses showed better results for 1-year mortality than for longer follow-up (SHFM 0.817, MAGGIC-HF 0.801, PREDICT-HF 0.799, BCN-Bio-HF 0.830). MAGGIC-HF showed the best calibration, BCN-Bio-HF overestimated risk while SHFM and PREDICT-HF underestimated it. BCN-Bio-HF provided the best discrimination and overall performance at every time-point. None of the contemporary risk scores examined showed a clear superiority over the rest. BCN-Bio-HF calculator provided the best discrimination and overall performance with overestimation of risk. MAGGIC-HF showed the best calibration, and SHFM and PREDICT-HF tended to underestimate risk. Regular updating and recalibration of online web calculators seems necessary to improve their accuracy as HF management evolves at unprecedented pace.

LVS-HARMED Risk Score for Incident Heart Failure in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Who Present to the Emergency Department: Data from a World-Wide Registry.

BackgroundHeart failure (HF) is a common complication to atrial fibrillation (AF), leading to rehospitalization and death. Early identification of patients with AF at risk for HF might improve outcomes. We aimed to derive a score to predict 1‐year risk of new‐onset HF after an emergency department (ED) visit with AF.Methods and ResultsThe RE‐LY AF (Randomized Evaluation of Long‐Term Anticoagulant Therapy) registry enrolled patients with AF presenting to an ED in 47 countries, and followed them for a year. The end point was HF hospitalization and/or HF death. Among 15 400 ED patients, 9765 had no prior HF (mean age, 64.9±14.9 years). Within 1 year, new‐onset HF developed in 6.8% of patients, of whom 21% died of HF. Independent predictors of HF included left ventricular hypertrophy (odds ratio [OR], 1.47; 95% CI, 1.19–1.82), valvular heart disease (OR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.18–2.04), smoking (OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.12–1.78), height (OR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.90–0.95 per 3 cm), age (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.07–1.15 per 5 years), rheumatic heart disease (OR, 1.77, 95% CI, 1.24–2.51), prior myocardial infarction (OR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.45–2.36), remaining in AF at ED discharge (OR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.46–2.36), and diabetes (OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.09–1.64). A continuous risk prediction score (LVS‐HARMED [left ventricular, valvular heart disease, smoking or other tobacco use, height, age, rheumatic heart disease, myocardial infarction, emergency department discharge rhythm, and diabetes]) had good discrimination (C statistic, 0.735; 95% CI, 0.716–0.755). Validation was conducted internally using bootstrapping (optimism‐corrected C statistic, 0.705) and externally (C statistic, 0.699). The 1‐year incidence of HF hospitalization and/or HF death across quartile groups of the score was 1.1%, 4.5%, 6.9%, and 14.4%, respectively. LVS‐HARMED also predicted incident stroke (C statistic, 0.753; 95% CI, 0.728–0.778).ConclusionsThe LVS‐HARMED score predicts new‐onset HF after an ED visit for AF. Preventative strategies should be considered in patients with high LVS‐HARMED HF risk.

Left Atrioventricular Coupling Index to Predict Incident Heart Failure: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

Background: Although left atrial (LA) and left ventricular (LV) structural and functional parameters have independent prognostic value as predictors of heart failure (HF), the close physiological relationship between the LA and LV suggest that the assessment of LA/LV coupling could better reflect left atrioventricular dysfunction and be a better predictor of HF.Aim: We investigated the prognostic value of a left atrioventricular coupling index (LACI), measured by cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR), as well as change in LACI to predict incident HF in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).Materials and Methods: In the MESA, 2,250 study participants, free of clinically recognized HF and cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline, had LACI assessed by CMR imaging at baseline (Exam 1, 2000–2002), and 10 years later (Exam 5, 2010–2012). Left atrioventricular coupling index was defined as the ratio of LA to LV end-diastolic volumes. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the associations of LACI and average annualized change in LACI (ΔLACI) with incident HF after adjustment for traditional MESA-HF risk factors. The incremental risk prediction was calculated using C-statistic, categorical net reclassification index (NRI) and integrative discrimination index (IDI).Results: Among the 2,250 participants (mean age 59.3 ± 9.3 years and 47.6% male participants), 50 incident HF events occurred over 6.8 ± 1.3 years after the second CMR exam. After adjustment, greater LACI and ΔLACI were independently associated with HF (adjusted HR 1.44, 95% CI [1.25–1.66] and adjusted HR 1.55, 95% CI [1.30–1.85], respectively; both p < 0.0001). Adjusted models for LACI showed significant improvement in model discrimination and reclassification compared to currently used HF risk score model for predicting HF incidence (C-statistic: 0.81 vs. 0.77; NRI = 0.411; IDI = 0.043). After adjustment, ΔLACI showed also significant improvement in model discrimination compared to the multivariable model with traditional MESA-HF risk factors for predicting incident HF (C-statistic: 0.82 vs. 0.77; NRI = 0.491; IDI = 0.058).Conclusions: In a multi-ethnic population, atrioventricular coupling (LACI), and coupling change (ΔLACI) are independently associated with incident HF. Both have incremental prognostic value for predicting HF events over traditional HF risk factors.

Impact of atrial flow regulator (AFR) implantation on 12-month mortality in heart failure : Insights from asingle site in the PRELIEVE study.

Implantation of the atrial flow regulator (AFR) to create an interatrial left-to-right shunt has been shown to be safe and feasible to reduce intracardiac filling pressures in patients with heart failure (HF). We aimed to assess the effect of AFR implantation on 12-month mortality and hospitalization rates in patients with reduced (HFrEF) or preserved HF (HFpEF). One-year follow-up data from 34subjects enrolled at asingle PRELIEVE center were analyzed. The 12-month predicted mortality was calculated using the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) risk score. Patients were divided into two groups, according to their history of hospitalizations for HF. Study data of 34patients (HFrEF: 24 [70.6%]; HFpEF: 10 [29.4%]) were assessed. Median follow-up duration was 355 days. In total, 14 (41.2%) patients were hospitalized during the follow-up period and6 (17.6%) of these patients were hospitalization for HF (HHF). Atotal of 24hospitalizations occurred in this period and8 (33%) hospitalizations were for HHF. The median baseline MAGGIC score was 23and the median predicted mortality was 13.4/100 patient years. Observed mortality was 3.1/100 patient years. The observed survival (97%) was 10.3% (95% confidence interval 3.6-17.5%, p = 0.004) better than the predicted survival (86.6%). Our results suggest that AFR implantation has favorable effects on mortality in patients with heart failure, regardless of ejection fraction. Furthermore, compared to baseline, left ventricular filling pressure (assessed by echocardiography) decreased significantly without right side volume overload at the 1‑year follow-up.

Participation in a Heart Failure Clinical Trial: Perspectives and Opportunities From the VICTORIA Trial and VICTORIA Simultaneous Registry.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often target enrollment of patients with demographics and outcomes less representative of the broader population of interest. To provide context for the VICTORIA trial (Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction), we designed a registry of hospitalized patients with worsening heart failure to characterize their clinical profile, outcomes, and reasons for their nonparticipation in a RCT. Fifty-one RCT sites in Canada and the United States participated. Eligible patients included those with chronic heart failure, hospitalized for heart failure, and an ejection fraction <45%; no other exclusions were applied. Sites identified patients between 2017 and 2019 during the RCT enrollment period. RCT eligibility criteria were applied, and non-mutually exclusive reasons for nonenrollment were captured. Mortality at 1 year was estimated via the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure risk score or as observed in the RCT. Overall, 2056 patients were enrolled in the registry; 61% (n=1256) were ineligible for the RCT, 37% (n=766) were eligible but not enrolled, and 2% (n=34) were also enrolled in the RCT. Registry participants had a median age of 70, 33% were women, and 63% were White. The median risk score predicted a 20.9% 1-year mortality, higher than in the RCT (predicted 14.7% and observed 11.5%). Major reasons for ineligibility in the RCT included the use of nitrates (23%), systolic blood pressure <100 mm Hg (12%), and substance use (11%) with other exclusion criteria <10%. For eligible patients, reasons for nonparticipation in the RCT included lack of interest in participating (28%), poor compliance (25%), inability to complete follow-up (23%), too sick (20%), unable to provide consent (17%), and distance from site (15%). Patients with worsening heart failure in routine clinical practice exhibit high-risk features, and approximately one-third were eligible for an RCT but excluded. The majority of these nonparticipating patients had modifiable reasons. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02861534.

Combined Assessment of D-Dimer with the Get with the Guidelines-Heart Failure Risk Score and N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide in Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure with Preserved and Reduced Ejection Fraction.

The prognostic role of D-dimer in different types of heart failure (HF) is poorly understood. We investigated the prognostic value of D-dimer on admission, both independently and in combination with the Get With The Guidelines—Heart Failure (GWTG-HF) risk score and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), in patients with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and acute decompensated HF (HFpEF) or reduced LVEF (HFrEF). Baseline D-dimer levels were measured on admission in 1670 patients (mean age: 75 years) who were hospitalized for worsening HF. Of those patients, 586 (35%) were categorized as HFpEF (LVEF ≥ 50%) and 1084 as HFrEF (LVEF < 50%). During the 12-month follow-up period after admission, 360 patients died. Elevated levels (at least the highest tertile value) of D-dimer, GWTG-HF risk score, and NT-proBNP were all independently associated with mortality in all HFpEF and HFrEF patients (all p < 0.05). Adding D-dimer to a baseline model with a GWTG-HF risk score and NT-proBNP improved the net reclassification and integrated discrimination improvement for mortality greater than the baseline model alone in all populations (all p < 0.001). The number of elevations in D-dimer, GWTG-HF risk score, and NT-proBNP were independently associated with a higher risk of mortality in all study populations (HFpEF and HFrEF patients; all p < 0.001). The combination of D-dimer, which is independently predictive of mortality, with the GWTG-HF risk score and NT-proBNP could improve early prediction of 12-month mortality in patients with acute decompensated HF, regardless of the HF phenotype.

External assessment of the EUROMACS right-sided heart failure risk score

The EUROMACS Right-Sided Heart Failure Risk Score was developed to predict right ventricular failure (RVF) after left ventricular assist device (LVAD) placement. The predictive ability of the EUROMACS score has not been tested in other cohorts. We performed a single center analysis of a continuous-flow (CF) LVAD cohort (n = 254) where we calculated EUROMACS risk scores and assessed for right ventricular heart failure after LVAD implantation. Thirty-nine percent of patients (100/254) had post-operative RVF, of which 9% (23/254) required prolonged inotropic support and 5% (12/254) required RVAD placement. For patients who developed RVF after LVAD implantation, there was a 45% increase in the hazards of death on LVAD support (HR 1.45, 95% CI 0.98–2.2, p = 0.066). Two variables in the EUROMACS score (Hemoglobin and Right Atrial Pressure to Pulmonary Capillary Wedge Pressure ratio) were not predictive of RVF in our cohort. Overall, the EUROMACS score had poor external discrimination in our cohort with area under the curve of 58% (95% CI 52–66%). Further work is necessary to enhance our ability to predict RVF after LVAD implantation.

Validation of the Intermountain Risk Score and Get with the Guidelines—Heart Failure Score in predicting mortality

ObjectiveThe Intermountain Risk Score (IMRS) was evaluated for validation as a mortality predictor and compared with the American Heart Association’s Get With The Guidelines—Heart Failure (GWTG-HF) risk score in a...

Prognostic Value of Liver Stiffness Measured by Two-Dimensional Elastography in Acute Decompensated Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction.

Liver stiffness (LS) assessed by ultrasound elastography reflects right-sided filling pressure and offers additional prognostic information in patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). However, the prognostic value of LS in heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of LS measured by two-dimensional shear wave elastography (2D-SWE) in patients with HFpEF.We prospectively enrolled 80 patients hospitalized for decompensated HFpEF between September 2019 and June 2020. Patients were categorized into three groups based on the tertile values of LS at discharge.The third tertile LS group had an older age; more advanced New York Heart Association functional class; higher total bilirubin, γ-glutamyl transferase (GGT), N-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide (NT pro-BNP), and Fibrosis-4 index; a larger right ventricle diastolic diameter, higher tricuspid regurgitation pressure gradient, and a larger maximal inferior vena cava diameter. During a median [interquartile range] follow-up period of 212 (82-275) days, 25 (31.2%) patients suffered composite end points (all-cause mortality and rehospitalization for worsening HF). The third tertile LS group had a significantly higher rate of composite end points (log-rank P = 0.002). A higher LS and the third tertile LS were significantly associated with the composite end points, even after adjusting for a conventional validated HF risk score and other previously reported prognostic risk factors.Increased LS measured by 2D-SWE reflects the severity of liver impairment by liver congestion and fibrosis, underlying right HF, and provides additional information for the prediction of poor outcomes in HFpEF.

Cardiac Contractility Modulation in Patients with Ischemic versus Non-ischemic Cardiomyopathy: Results from the MAINTAINED Observational Study

BackgroundCardiac contractility modulation (CCM) is an FDA-approved device-based therapy for patients with systolic heart failure and normal QRS width who are symptomatic despite optimal drug therapy. The purpose of this study was to compare the long-term therapeutic effects of CCM therapy in patients with ischemic (ICM) versus non-ischemic cardiomyopathy (NICM). MethodsChanges in NYHA class, KDIGO CKD stage, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE), and NT-proBNP levels were compared as functional parameters. Moreover, observed mortality rates at 1 and 3 years were compared to those predicted by the MAGGIC heart failure risk score, and observed mortality rates were compared between groups for the entire follow-up period. ResultsOne hundred and seventy-four consecutive patients with chronic heart failure and CCM device implantation between 2002 and 2019 were included in this retrospective analysis. LVEF was significantly higher in NICM patients after 3 years of CCM therapy (35 ± 9 vs. 30 ± 9%; p = 0.0211), and after 5 years, also TAPSE of NICM patients was significantly higher (21 ± 5 vs. 18 ± 5%; p = 0.0437). There were no differences in other effectiveness parameters. Over the entire follow-up period, 35% of all patients died (p = 0.81); only in ICM patients, mortality was lower than predicted at 3 years (35 vs. 43%, p = 0.0395). ConclusionsRegarding improvement of biventricular systolic function, patients with NICM appear to benefit particularly from CCM therapy.

Left atrioventricular coupling index to predict incident heart failure: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA)

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. BACKGROUND Although left atrial (LA) and left ventricular (LV) structural and functional parameters have independent prognostic value as predictors of HF, the close physiological relationship between LA and LV suggest that the assessment of LA/LV coupling could better reflect left atrioventricular dysfunction and be a better predictor of heart failure (HF). PURPOSE We investigated the prognostic value of a left atrioventricular coupling index (LACI), measured by cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR), as well as change in LACI to predict incident HF in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). METHODS In the MESA, 2,250 study participants, free of clinically recognized HF and cardiovascular disease at baseline, had LACI assessed by CMR imaging at baseline (Exam 1, 2000–2002), and ten years later (Exam 5, 2010–2012). LACI was defined as the ratio of LA to LV end-diastolic volumes. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the associations of LACI and average annualized change in LACI (ΔLACI) with incident HF after adjustment on traditional HF risk factors. The incremental risk prediction was calculated using C-statistic, categorical net reclassification index (NRI) and integrative discrimination index (IDI). RESULTS Among the 2,250 participants (mean age 59.3 ± 9.3 years and 47.6% male participants), 50 incident HF events occurred over 6.8 ± 1.3 years after the second CMR exam. After adjustment, greater LACI and ΔLACI were independently associated with HF (adjusted HR 1.44, 95% CI [1.25-1.66] and adjusted HR 1.55, 95% CI [1.30-1.85], respectively; both p &amp;lt; 0.0001). Adjusted models for LACI showed significant improvement in model discrimination and reclassification compared to currently used HF risk score model for predicting HF incidence (C-statistic: 0.81 vs. 0.77; NRI = 0.411; IDI = 0.043). After adjustment, ΔLACI showed also significant improvement in model discrimination compared to the multivariable model with traditional HF risk factors for predicting incident HF (C-statistic: 0.82 vs. 0.77; NRI = 0.491; IDI = 0.058). CONCLUSIONS In a multi-ethnic population, atrioventricular coupling (LACI) and coupling change (ΔLACI) are independently associated with incident HF. Both have incremental prognostic value for predicting HF over traditional HF risk factors.

Do we need a simplified model to predict outcomes in patients hospitalized with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure? Results from The Role of Sodium in Heart Failure Outcomes Prediction (‘SHOUT-PREDICTION’) study

ContextHyponatremia is associated with high in-hospital mortality in patients with acute decompensated Heart Failure (ADHF) and is one of the components in various risk scores in heart failure (HF). However, some risk scores predict outcomes in these patients without using hyponatremia as its component. AimThe study was aimed to evaluate the relationship between serum sodium levels at admission and clinical outcomes during the in-hospital course and three months’ follow-up, in patients admitted in the intensive cardiac care unit (ICCU) with ADHF. Methods and materialThis was a single-center prospective, observational study in which 130 consecutive patients admitted with ADHF were observed for clinical characteristics and blood investigation at admission and their clinical outcomes during the in-hospital course and follow-up of 3 months. ResultsHyponatremia and systolic blood pressure (SBP) both were found to be the independent predictor of in-hospital mortality. The SXS score (calculated as a product of SBP and serum sodium, divided by 1000) as a new prediction variable was significantly associated with in-hospital mortality and was compared with the Get with the guideline HF (GWTG-HF) score and ADHF national registry (ADHERE) score. The SXS score showed the best overall accuracy in predicting in-hospital mortality [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.899] as compared to the ADHERE (AUC = 0.780) and the GWTG (AUC = 0.815). ConclusionsA score derived from the product of serum sodium and SBP (SXS score) had a significant association with in-hospital mortality, and better predictive value as compared to GWTG and ADHERE risk score in these patients.

Machine Learning of ECG Waveforms to Improve Selection for Testing for Asymptomatic Left Ventricular Dysfunction

ObjectivesThe purpose of this study was to identify whether machine learning from processing of continuous wave transforms (CWTs) to provide an “energy waveform” electrocardiogram (ewECG) could be integrated with echocardiographic assessment of subclinical systolic and diastolic left ventricular dysfunction (LVD). BackgroundAsymptomatic LVD has management implications, but routine echocardiography is not undertaken in subjects at risk of heart failure. Signal processing of the surface ECG with the use of CWT can identify abnormal myocardial relaxation. MethodsEwECG and echocardiography were undertaken in 398 participants at risk of heart failure (HF). Reduced global longitudinal strain (GLS ≤16%)), diastolic abnormalities (E/e′ >15, left atrial enlargement with E/e′ >10 or impaired relaxation) or LV hypertrophy defined LVD. EwECG feature selection and supervised machine-learning by random forest (RF) classifier was undertaken with 643 CWT-derived features and the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) heart failure risk score. ResultsThe ARIC score and 18 CWT features were selected to build a RF predictive model for LVD in a training dataset (n = 287; 60% female, median age 71 [interquartile range: 68 to 74] years). Model performance was tested in an independent group (n = 111; 49% female, median age 61 years [59 to 66 years]), demonstrating 85% sensitivity and 72% specificity (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve [AUC]: 0.83; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.74 to 0.92). With ARIC score removed, sensitivity was 88% and specificity, 70% (AUC: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.70 to 0.86). RF models for reduced GLS and diastolic abnormalities including similar features had sensitivities that were unsuitable for screening. Conventional candidates for LVD screening (ARIC score, N-terminal pro–B-type natriuretic peptide, and standard automated ECG analysis) had inferior discriminative ability. Integration of ewECG in screening of people at risk of HF would reduce need for echocardiography by 45% while missing 12% of LVD cases. ConclusionsMachine learning applied to ewECG is a sensitive screening test for LVD, and its integration into screening of patients at risk for HF would reduce the number of echocardiograms by almost one-half.

Left atrioventricular coupling index to predict incident heart failure: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

Although left atrial (LA) and left ventricular (LV) structural and functional parameters have independent prognostic value as predictors of heart failure (HF), the close physiological relationship between LA and LV suggest that the assessment of LA/LV coupling could be more accurate. To assess the prognostic value of a left atrioventricular coupling index (LACI), measured by cardiac MRI, as well as change in LACI to predict incident HF in MESA. In the MESA, 2250 study participants, free of CV disease at baseline, had LACI assessed by CMR at baseline (Exam 1, 2000), and 10 years later (Exam 5, 2010). LACI was defined as the ratio of LA to LV end-diastolic volumes. Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the associations of LACI and annualized change in LACI (ΔLACI) with HF after adjustment on traditional HF risk factors. Among the 2250 participants (mean age 59.3 ± 9.3 years and 48% male participants), 50 incident HF events occurred over 6.8 ± 1.3 years after the second CMR exam. After adjustment, greater LACI and ΔLACI were independently associated with HF (adjusted HR 1.44, 95%CI [1.25–1.66] and adjusted HR 1.55, 95%CI [1.30–1.85], respectively; both P < 0.0001). Adjusted models for LACI showed significant improvement in model discrimination and reclassification compared to currently used HF risk score model for predicting HF incidence (C-statistic:0.81 vs. 0.77; NRI = 0.411; IDI = 0.043). After adjustment, ΔLACI showed also significant improvement in model discrimination compared to the multivariable model with traditional HF risk factors for predicting incident HF (C-statistic:0.82 vs. 0.77; NRI = 0.491; IDI = 0.058) ( Fig. 1 ). In a multi-ethnic population, atrioventricular coupling (LACI) and coupling change (ΔLACI) are independently associated with incident HF. Both have incremental prognostic value for predicting HF over traditional HF risk factors.

Prediction of right heart failure after left ventricular assist implantation: external validation of the EUROMACS right-sided heart failure risk score.

Prediction of right heart failure (RHF) after left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implant remains a challenge. The EUROMACS right-sided heart failure (EUROMACS-RHF) risk score was proposed as a prediction tool for post-LVAD RHF but lacks from large external validation. The aim of our study was to externally validate the score. From January 2007 to December 2017, 878 continuous-flow LVADs were implanted at three tertiary centres. We calculated the EUROMACS-RHF score in 662 patients with complete data. We evaluated its predictive performance for early RHF defined as either (i) need for short- or long-term right-sided circulatory support, (ii) continuous inotropic support for ≥14 days, or (iii) nitric oxide for ≥48 h post-operatively. Right heart failure occurred in 211 patients (32%). When compared with non-RHF patients, pre-operatively they had higher creatinine, bilirubin, right atrial pressure, and lower INTERMACS class (P < 0.05); length of stay and in-hospital mortality were higher. Area under the ROC curve for RHF prediction of the EUROMACS-RHF score was 0.64 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.60-0.68]. Reclassification of patients with RHF was significantly better when applying the EUROMACS-RHF risk score on top of previous published scores. Patients in the high-risk category had significantly higher in-hospital and 2-year mortality [hazard ratio: 1.64 (95% CI 1.16-2.32) P = 0.005]. In an external cohort, the EUROMACS-RHF had limited discrimination predicting RHF. The clinical utility of this score remains to be determined.

CIED guided HF management : a prospective cohort study

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: Public hospital(s). Main funding source(s): Liverpool Clinical Commissioning Group Background Heart failure (HF) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. (1) Cardiac Implantable Electronic Devices (CIED) generated Heart Failure Risk Score (HFRS) alerts may guide management in this complex cohort and help direct resources to appropriate patients. (2) Aim To develop and evaluate an integrated, multidisciplinary approach to HF management for patients with CIED by sharing HFRS alerts directly with the HF teams. Methods We undertook a prospective, single centre cohort study of patients who generated high risk HFRS alerts. These alerts were shared with community HF teams responsible for routine care of patient, prompting patient contact and appropriate intervention by the team. Impact of the pathway was evaluated by review of outcomes including hospitalisation and clinical intervention within 4- 6 weeks of the alert and mortality during the follow up period. Ongoing education was provided to help teams deal with alerts. A validated user questionnaire was completed by the stake holders to obtain user feedback. Results 365 "High risk" alerts were noted in 188 patients in a 2 year period (November 2018 - November 2020). The mean number of alerts per patients was 1.9 and 44 (23%) of patients had &amp;gt;3 "high risk" alerts in the follow up period. Having three or more alerts significantly increased the risk of hospitalisation for heart failure (HR 2.5, CI 1.1–5.6 p = 0.03) but not mortality (HR 2.1 CI 0.6-7.2 p = 0.23). Overall 75 (39%) of patients were hospitalised in the 4-6 week period of the alert – 53 (28%) of these were unplanned of which 24(13%) were for decompensated HF. A further 24(13%) had planned admissions for care to improve therapy (AV node ablation, device and lead replacement) and reduce morbidity (LA appendage occlude, IV Iron therapy). 33(18%) of patients died in the follow up period. 15(8%) received therapy from the device. 18(10%) of patient underwent deactivation of ICD therapy. Contact was established in 176 (94%) of patients, and alerts actioned appropriately. 55 patients reported being asymptomatic, and in 45 the trends were improving so no further clinical action was taken. 76 patients had an onward referral made for further management including; 32 to a Cardiologist, 20 to primary care, 13 referrals to community HF teams and 11 referrals to palliative care. 23 patients had medications changes instituted. The feedback on the pathway was positive. Conclusions An integrated approach to HF for patients with CIEDs in situ can facilitate timely risk stratification and intervention in this cohort of patients and potentially reduce unplanned health care utilisation. Intervention in these patients is not limited to HF alone and provides the opportunity for holistic management of this complex cohort Abstract Figure.

Worsening Heart Failure Episodes Outside a Hospital Setting in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction: The PARAGON-HF Trial

ObjectivesThis study sought to evaluate the frequency and prognostic implications of urgent heart failure (HF) visits in a large global clinical trial of HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). BackgroundEpisodes of worsening HF managed without hospitalization are common and prognostically important in HF with reduced ejection fraction (EF). The significance of these ambulatory worsening HF events in HFpEF is uncertain. MethodsPARAGON-HF (Prospective Comparison of ARNI with ARB Global Outcomes in HF with Preserved Ejection Fraction) randomly assigned 4,796 patients with HFpEF (≥45%) to treatment with sacubitril/valsartan vs. valsartan with a primary composite endpoint of total HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular death. Urgent ambulatory HF visits requiring intravenous diuretic treatment were prospectively collected and adjudicated by a blinded committee. We examined the effect of study treatment on a prespecified expanded composite of cardiovascular death and worsening HF events (including HF hospitalizations and urgent HF visits) and the effect of each type of HF event on subsequent mortality. ResultsOf 884 first worsening HF events, 66 (7.5%) were urgent HF visits. Patients whose first episode of worsening HF event was an urgent visit had similar age, comorbidities, baseline N-terminal prohormone of B-type natriuretic peptide, and Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure risk scores to those in whom the first HF event was a hospitalization (all comparisons p > 0.05). Regardless of the treatment setting, patients with a first episode of worsening HF had higher rates of subsequent death (19.2 per 100 patient-years; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 16.9 to 21.8 for HF hospitalization and 10.1 per 100 patients-years; 95% CI: 5.4 to 18.7 for urgent HF visit) compared with those who did not experience worsening HF (death rate 4.0 per 100 patient-years; 95% CI: 3.6 to 4.4). Including total urgent HF visits in the composite study endpoint added 95 total events and would have shortened the trial duration needed for event accrual. The addition of urgent HF visits in a prespecified composite endpoint reinforced the treatment efficacy of sacubitril/valsartan compared with valsartan (rate ratio 0.86; 95% CI: 0.75 to 0.99; p = 0.040). ConclusionsLike HF hospitalizations, worsening HF events treated in the ambulatory setting are prognostically important in HFpEF. Inclusion of these events in the composite primary endpoint underscores the benefit of sacubitril/valsartan compared with valsartan in PARAGON-HF. (Prospective Comparison of ARNI with ARB Global Outcomes in HF with Preserved Ejection Fraction [PARAGON-HF]; NCT01920711)