Risk Reduction Effect Research Articles

Development and Evaluation of ICT Operation Support System for Urban Flood Control Facilities

This study was conducted to develop and evaluate the prediction accuracy and effectiveness of “ICT operation support system for urban flood control facilities,” which is installed in Eba catchment area in Hiroshima city, Japan. This system consists of real-time facilities monitoring technology, rainfall data from eXtended RAdar Information Network (XRAIN), and Real-time flood prediction technology. High prediction accuracy is crucial for effective control facility management using ICT operation support system. In this study, ICT operation support system was installed for effective operation of stormwater pump. The prediction accuracy and effectiveness of this system were evaluated based on the past rainfall record from XRAIN. The system takes only three minutes to distribute the urban flood prediction information, and it has been operated stably during the operation. Flood risk reduction effect can be better expected in case of central concentrated rainfall pattern.

Securitization and crash risk: Evidence from large European banks

The global financial crisis highlights the importance of securitization and crash risk. We analyze the relationship between securitization and crash risk in a sample of large European banks listed on the EuroStoxx 600 between 2000 and 2017. We use a dynamic panel data approach to establish a causal relationship. We test the robustness of results with different tail risk measures. Our evidence shows that crash risk declines in the year of securitization and increases the following year. This effect is driven by less complex securitization deals. The risk reduction effect is weaker in crisis periods relative to normal times. Our findings have policy implications as regulators attempt reviving European securitization markets.

An optimal firebreak design for the boreal forest of China

Wildfire often causes the loss of lives, damage to property, and alteration of the environment. Great efforts have been made in the world to reduce the impacts of fire including fuel reduction and modification, prescribe burning, and firebreak construction. Firebreaks have been used in forest fire management in China for a long time; however, no assessments of their effectiveness in fire risk reduction due to density, width, and spatial pattern have been conducted. In this study, we used burn probability (BP) and construction cost as measures to determine the optimal firebreak design for the boreal forests in Northeast China. Using the current landscape without artificial firebreaks as the baseline, we assessed the BP changes for 49 simulated firebreak scenarios that included combinations of eleven densities, three widths, and two spatial patterns. The Burn-P3 model was used to simulate BP for each scenario based on weather conditions from fire seasons during 2005–2018. Our results showed that: 1) BP decreased with increasing firebreak density when width and spatial pattern remained constant; 2) BP decreased significantly within 2000 m of firebreaks when width increased from 30 m to 60/90 m and remained at a constant density; 3) areas of high and very high BP can effectively be reduced through the use of spatially optimized firebreak designs; and 4) an optimal firebreak design was determined that is 4.1 m/ha in density, 30 m wide in grasslands and 60 m wide in forests, and in the optimized BP-based spatial distribution pattern. The optimal firebreak design may reduce BP by 25.2% in comparison to that under current scenario, with further reductions in high- and very-high-BP areas.

Effect of data privacy and security investment on the value of big data firms

The use of big data analytics (BDA) and related technologies by firms can raise concerns regarding data privacy and security (DPS). In this study, with stock return and risk as indicators of firm performance, we investigate how DPS investment affects the financial performance of BDA firms (firms with BDA investment) and non-BDA firms (firms without BDA investment). We use a difference-in-differences approach and apply the propensity score matching to 1400 DPS announcements made by 228 US firms whose stocks are publicly traded on US stock markets from 2004 to 2018. The main findings are as follows: (1) On average, DPS investment significantly reduces firms' systematic risk. (2) The risk reduction effects are greater for non-BDA firms than for BDA firms. Our results indicate that DPS investment reduces firm risk and that the business value of specific information technology (IT) investment (e.g., DPS) is influenced by firms' other IT assets (e.g., BDA). The present findings advance the literature on the business value of IT and firms' IT portfolio management in digitized business environments.

Proposal of a method for assessing combined flood risk reduction effect by hazard control measures and exposure reduction measures based on limited data

AbstractThis article verifies the applicability of an assessment method on flood risk reduction, combining and assessing hazard control measures and exposure reduction measures together. The method develops collated flood risk curves and uses limited data, so it is an approach which can be readily applied in developing countries, where an understanding of flood risk reduction measures are become increasingly important. The method was proposed as a result of studies conducted by the National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan. When applying the method to a river improvement and relocation scheme with land mounding in Mindanao, the Philippines, the advantages and limitations of the method are considered.

Coherence, extreme risk spillovers, and dynamic linkages between oil and China’s commodity futures markets

This paper investigates the time-frequency dependence, extreme risk spillovers, and dynamic linkages between oil and China’s commodity futures markets, using wavelet coherence, quantile connectedness approach, and the DECO-FIAPARCH (1,d,1) model. The results suggest that the oil market exhibits higher coherence with the copper, natural rubber, and fuel oil futures but low coherence with corn, soybean, soybean meal, and white sugar futures on a long-term scale. The crude oil market leads most of China’s commodity futures. The results of the DECO model point to the time-varying and low average equicorrelations between oil and China’s commodity futures. The total risk connectedness at the extreme lower quantile level (0.01) is higher than the conditional mean and conditional median level. WTI oil, Brent oil, soybean oil, and copper futures are the main spillover net-transmitters whereas the white sugar, soybean, soybean meal, cotton, corn, aluminum, natural rubber, and fuel oil futures are risk spillover net-recipients. The dynamic extreme negative risk spillovers are highly volatile and vulnerable to major international events such as the GFC, oil price plunge, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, Brent oil offers better portfolio diversification benefits than WTI oil and the optimal-weighted portfolio illustrates the highest risk and downside risk reduction effectiveness.

Effectiveness of influenza vaccination in infants and toddlers with and without prior infection history: The Japan Environment and Children’s Study

We calculated the Poisson-regression-adjusted relative risk (RR) of new influenza infection by vaccination, prior infection, and vaccination after prior infection in a large Japanese birth cohort, using data from ≤89,253 children aged 6 months to 3 years. The effectiveness of risk reduction (1 − RR) by vaccination at ages 1.5–3 years was 21%–31%. The RR of new infection after prior infection vs. no prior infection was 2.58–19.3 at age 1–3 years. An analysis of the 1 − RR data stratified by having at least one senior sibling and/or attending nursery school revealed that vaccination reduced the RR by 22%–40%. The 1 − RR of new infection was 21% in 3-year-old children who were vaccinated after prior infection. All these findings are statistically significant. The results consistently indicate that, regardless of having at least one senior sibling, attending nursery school, and/or being previously infected with influenza, infants and toddlers will benefit from influenza vaccination.

기후변화 적응대책·기술의 지속가능성 평가방법 개발 및 적용

Climate change is the biggest risk facing many cities today due to extreme weather phenomena such as heat waves, droughts and floods. Achieving future sustainability in despite the risks associated with climate change is the goal of climate change adaptation measures and technologies. Among climate change adaptation measures seeking to decrease climate risk, some may cause mal-adaptation that undermines sustainability in the long-term. However, there is a lack of research on assessment of the sustainability of adaptation policies. Therefore, this study develops a methodology for assessing the sustainability of climate change adaptation measures and technologies and examines the degree of sustainability of widely used adaptation measures and technologies. The developed sustainability evaluation tool consists of 90 indicators in the social, economic, ecological and governance dimensions and is based on semi-quantitative assessment. Sustainability evaluation of 52 adaptation measures in disaster, health, land and infrastructure, and coastal sectors revealed that sustainability impact scores of the disaster sector were relatively higher than those of other sectors. Most measures scored high in the social dimension, while the economic and ecological dimensions showed a significant impact on the total scores of measures. This sustainability assessment methodology for assessing adaptation measures and technologies is expected to supplement the current priority assessment based on risk-reduction effects, urgency, feasibility and cost.

Indigenous flood control and management knowledge and flood disaster risk reduction in Nigeria's coastal communities: An empirical analysis

Flooding is one of the major global challenges today. The role of indigenous knowledge in offering an effective risk reduction strategy towards flood disaster disregarded for many decades is now gaining global recognition. There is a growing call for empirical identification of the effectiveness of indigenous knowledge in flood risk reduction. Consequently, this paper empirically examines indigenous flood control and management knowledge with the intent to identify its effectiveness in risk reduction of flood disasters in Nigeria's coastal communities. This is to provide empirical bases for the formulation of appropriate strategies for enhancing flood risk reduction in Nigeria's coastal communities. The research engaged focus group discussion and questionnaire methods to generate primary data. The research proceeds with principal component analysis to classify and measure the effectiveness of indigenous flood control and management knowledge in flood risk reduction. The result shows the existence of eight types of indigenous flood control and management knowledge in the coastal communities and they were 61.2% effective in flood risk reduction. This implies that indigenous flood control and management knowledge practiced in Nigeria's coastal communities is effective in flood risk reduction. This study proposed a sustainable approach to risk reduction in flood disasters based on the integration of indigenous knowledge systems and modern flood management strategies.

A risk assessment methodology of aluminum dust explosion for polishing process based on laboratory tests

The secondary dust explosion ignited by the primary explosion energy often causes greater damage to the just destroyed carrier. Therefore, the study of explosion risk as well as the risk reduction effect with suppression is key guard against the secondary and derivative explosions. A novel risk assessment methodology is presented based on Monte Carlo theory for numerically fitting pressure’s uncertainty changes and Crystal ball simulation for calculating explosion risk and its distribution probability of hazardous explosive dust. Taking the aluminum dust of a polishing process as an example, the fitted results show that the tested explosion pressure in laboratory presents the shape of lognormal distribution with average pressure of 0.27 MPa on the condition of 500 g/m3 aluminum dust with median particle diameter at 35 μm. The simulated results show that the risk possibility of myringorupture injury, pneumorrhagia injury, and structure damage all approaches 100% because of the high explosion pressure considering the potential percentage of injury or damage at 50%. However, the risk possibility reduces to 14.27%, 0.13%, and 42.05% with suppressants of ammonium dihydrogen phosphate at 10%, respectively. The proposed method of risk assessment for dust explosion and its suppression provides scientific basis for strategy optimization of dust explosion protection and safe production of fine explosive dust related industry.

Methodology for Complex Efficiency Evaluation of Machinery Safety Measures in a Production Organization

Even though the rules for the free circulation of machinery within the European Union (EU) market have existed for more than 30 years, accidents related to their activities have constantly been reaching significant value. When designing a machine, the design must stem from a risk assessment, where all stages of its life cycle and the ways to use it must be taken into consideration. In industrial operations with old machinery, despite fulfilling its function reliably, the safety level is below the developing requirements for safe operations. The proposed methodology to assess machinery safety conditions comes from the assumption of the proper application of risk assessment steps and their effectiveness in risk reduction mainly through implementing both effective and efficient preventive measures. The objective of the research applied in three operations was to verify the methods concerning machinery safety and its management. The created methodology, based on 19 requirements for safety, evaluates the level of current measures using a criterion of the current safety status and the total effectiveness of safety measures. Its output is the assessment of the efficiency level of the implemented safety measures of each machine as well as of the whole operation.

Better modulation for risk decision-making after optimized magnetic stimulation.

Traditional repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation can only produce a significant but weak effect on the cortex while theta burst stimulation (TBS), a patterned accelerated form of stimulation, can produce a stronger poststimulation effect, which may improve decision-making abilities. We designed a comparative assessment of the effect of intermittent TBS (iTBS), 20Hz, in two risk decision-making tasks on healthy controls. Participants were randomized and assigned to the iTBS (n=29), 20Hz (n=29), or sham (n=29) groups. The effects of the different methods of left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex stimulation on risk decision-making functions were compared based on subjects' performance in the Game of Dice Task (GDT) and Risky Gains Task (RGT). The main indicators were positive and negative feedback utilization rates of GDT and RGT. Both iTBS and 20 Hz stimulation resulted in significant improvements upon negative feedback in the GDT, with increases in safe options and reductions in risky options; iTBS stimulation increased subjects' use of positive feedback in the GDT and RGT (all p<0.05). Furthermore, the iTBS group had a stronger feedback risk reduction effect than the 20Hz or sham group following RGT negative feedback (p<0.05). Individuals would integrate positive and negative information more efficiently, leading to them making rational choices after excitatory transcranial magnetic stimulation. Moreover, iTBS has a stronger risk reduction effect following negative feedback than the 20Hz stimulation did. In summary, iTBS might have clinical value in decision promotion.

Determinants of hand-washing behavior during the infectious phase of COVID-19

Hand washing is one of the most effective measures to reduce the risk of transmitting infectious diseases. However, motivation for regular hand washing during the infectious phase of the SARS-CoV-2 infection remains unclear. We examined four possible reasons for practicing regular hand washing ̶ two involved the perceived effectiveness of this practice in reducing the risk of infection, and the other two involved other motivations. The results of our nationwide survey revealed that people conformed to other peopleʼs practice of washing hands and felt relief from their anxiety when washing their hands. The perceived effectiveness of personal risk reduction, however, showed little effect on the behavior, while motivations such as conformity and relief from anxiety successfully explained a large proportion of hand-washing behavior. Our findings suggest that policymakers responsible for public health should consider social motivations when implementing public strategies to combat the COVID-19 pandemic.

Building Collapse Risk Assessment and Risk Reduction Effect due to Removal of Vacant Houses in Kawasaki City

Building Collapse Risk Assessment and Risk Reduction Effect due to Removal of Vacant Houses in Kawasaki City

Comprehensive risk assessment including risk reduction effects during the use of robot nursing care devices

Comprehensive risk assessment including risk reduction effects during the use of robot nursing care devices

Are Interim Performance Evaluations Optimal when the Evaluations are Subject to Manipulation?

The paper considers, in a principal-agent framework, whether or not providing interim performance evaluations is more efficient when agents can manipulate the very performance reports by which they are evaluated. Providing interim performance evaluation introduces possible dependence of subsequent strategies on interim reports. Such dependence, while alleviating previous-period incentive compatibility constraints, also increases the (expected) later-period performance manipulation costs. The first effect provides a risk-sharing benefit whereas the second effect increases the expected compensation cost to the agent (in utilities). Correspondingly, providing interim performance evaluation is better when the manager is sufficiently risk-averse so that the risk-reduction effect dominates.

Health Promotion Effects of Soy Isoflavones.

Soybeans contain several physiologically active ingredients, such as soy phytosterol, soyasaponin, soy protein, and lecithin, and are therefore expected to express the functionalities of said ingredients. Among them, soy isoflavones have been studied in recent years for their various functions, including their obesity-preventing effect, blood glucose level reducing effect, osteoporosis and breast cancer risk reduction, and anti-oxidative effect, and several health promoting effects and disease preventing effects are expected. For example, it has been determined that soy isoflavones reduce body and fat weight in experiments in which mice were fed a diet containing soy isoflavones in studies on anti-obesity. Epidemiologic studies with humans have also shown that women who consume more soybeans have lower BMI than those who consume less. We previously found that soy isoflavones may have anti-obesity effects in myoblasts through the activation of transcriptional coactivator PGC-1β, which increases energy expenditure. In recent studies, a decrease in blood glucose level due to soy isoflavone was seen in an experiment in which diabetic model mice were fed a diet containing soy isoflavone. It has also been suggested that soy isoflavone intake may increase bone mineral density in postmenopausal women and reduce the risk of breast cancer. This review focuses on the actions of soy isoflavones known to date, including their anti-obesity and anti-diabetic effects, bone loss preventing effects, and cancer risk reduction effects, and introduces reports on the health promotion and disease prevention effects of soy isoflavones.

Information spillovers and dynamic dependence between China’s energy and regional CET markets with portfolio implications: New evidence from multi-scale analysis

Global climate change caused by human activities has posed a huge threat to the environmental governance and sustainability of human-being. Fortunately, the carbon emission trading scheme, a powerful tool for reducing carbon emissions, has been established in many countries to slow catastrophic climate change thus promoting human well-being. The nexuses between energy and European carbon markets have been extensively studied due to the grim reality of global climate change. However, no literature to date has examined the multi-scale associations between China’s energy and regional CET markets. This paper aims to fill this gap by utilizing a proposed wavelet-based multi-scale investigation framework to explore the information spillovers and dynamic dependence over different time horizons. The original energy and carbon return series are decomposed by the MODWT method. The TVP-VAR-based connectedness and the DECO-FIGARCH model are then built at each selected wavelet component. The wavelet coherence method is also applied to depict the time-frequency dependence. The empirical results demonstrate that the information spillovers at multivariate time-scales are heterogeneous. Generally, GDEA and the crude oil markets act as the information spillover net-transmitters at the raw data level and all wavelet scales. The dynamic spillovers present significant time-varying features and a similar evaluation trajectory. Besides, we offer strong evidence of a low dynamic equicorrelation between China’s energy and regional CET markets, suggesting the portfolio diversification benefits. Furthermore, the information spillover and dependence are proved to be more significant at longer time horizons. Finally, the energy-carbon portfolios offer diversification opportunities, and the risk reduction effectiveness varies with wavelet scales. Moreover, the optimal-weighted portfolio exhibits the best risk management performance. • Wavelet-based multi-scale spillover and dependence analysis framework is proposed. • MODWT is applied to decompose the original data into various wavelet components. • TVP-VAR-based connectedness is utilized to quantify the information spillovers. • Wavelet-based-DECO-FIGARCH model is employed to examine the dynamic dependence. • Wavelet coherence method is used to depict the time-frequency dependence structure.

Exercise and the Risk of Mild Cognitive Impairment: Does the Effect Depend on Vascular Factors?

Although exercise is associated with a lower risk for mild cognitive impairment (MCI), it is unclear whether its protective effect depends on the presence or absence of vascular factors. In an exploratory study of data from a population-based cohort, 1254 participants aged 65+ years were followed for 10 years for incident MCI. The main effect of baseline total minutes of exercise per week (0 vs. 1 to 149 vs. 150+), and its interaction with several vascular factors, on risk for incident MCI was examined using Cox proportional hazards regression models, adjusting for demographics. Compared with no exercise, 1 to 149 minutes [hazard ratio (HR)=0.90; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.69-1.16] and 150 or more minutes per week (HR=0.84; 95% CI, 0.66-1.07) of exercise lowered risk for incident MCI in a dose-dependent manner. The majority of interactions were not statistically significant, but risk reduction effect sizes of <0.75 suggested that exercise may have stronger effects among those without high cholesterol, never smoking, and not currently consuming alcohol; also, those with arrhythmia, coronary artery disease, and heart failure. Overall, there was a pattern of exercise being associated with lower MCI risk among those without vascular factors. Spending more time engaging in exercise each week may offer protection against MCI in late life, with some variation among those with different vascular conditions and risk factors. Our findings may help target subgroups for exercise recommendations and interventions, and also generate hypotheses to test regarding underlying mechanisms.

Risk Management Committee and Bank Performance: Evidence from the Adoption of Dodd-Frank Act

This paper tests the effect of the establishment of risk management committee on bank risk, bank loan performance and bank value. The Dodd Frank Act of 2010 provides us with quasi-experimental variation on risk management committee establishment that facilitates identification. I present two identification methods: (1) identifying the risk management committee effect using an instrumental variable that is based on the difference-in-differences; and (2) testing the risk management committee effect using the $10 billion assets as a cutoff and employing the fuzzy regression discontinuity design. I find that the establishment of risk committee has effectively reduced bank risks, including total risk, tail risk, residual risk, and asset risk. The risk committee is also beneficial to firm value increment and non-performing loan reduction. In addition, I find that the risk reduction effect from the risk management committee is more pronounced among asset diversified banks.