Risk Premium Effects Research Articles

Determinants and international transmission of interest rates: Do foreign reserves and sovereign debt matter?

AbstractWe analyze the role of international reserves and sovereign debt in the determination and international transmission of interest rates. We develop a model that describes the money market equilibrium with capital account openness. It predicts that higher levels of international reserves lead to lower interest rates whereas the effect of higher government debt is ambiguous. We then test empirically these predictions on a panel of 128 countries over 1985–2019. We find that: (i) the transmission of U.S. interest rates to domestic interest rates is stronger in emerging market economies (EMEs) than in advanced economies (AEs) for short‐term interest rates (STIR), and vice versa for long‐term interest rates (LTIR); (ii) international reserves help counteract the transmission of the U.S. policy rate on STIR in EMEs; (iii) a higher sovereign debt level is associated with lower interest rates in EMEs (liquidity effect), but higher interest rates in developing economies (risk premium effect).

Tail risk and excess return of mutual funds: loss-premium balance hypothesis

ABSTRACT This paper studies the relationship between tail risk exposure and mutual fund returns using samples from January 2007 to December 2022. The T R jl calculated by Generalized Extreme Value Distribution captures the negative correlation between returns and tail risk, with a one-standard-deviation increase (0.0119) leading to 0.24% decrease in three-factor alpha quarterly. T R jl also captures the nonlinear effect in short term, yet the nonlinearity diminishes due to the reversal of the return-risk exposure curve of equity funds in long term. We propose Loss-Premium Balance Hypothesis, positing that risk loss and premium effect are dominant under different tail risk exposures, respectively.

Global directed technical change model with fiscal and monetary policies, and public debt

We develop an endogenous growth model with North–South interactions, monetary policy, and a multi-dimensional role for fiscal policy. To boost economic performance, the government of the less developed country subsidizes R&D and intermediate goods production. Besides, to account for the effects of excessive public debt, we introduce a negative externality on productivity and a risk premium effect. Our findings reveal that the steady-state growth rate of both economies depends positively on the subsidies in the South and negatively on the public debt’s externality on productivity and the risk premium affecting the indebted economy. Additionally, public debt externalities increase the equilibrium wage inequality, making it more significant in the South. To minimize these effects, both countries can agree to mutualize their debts to overcome the risk premium. Then, the economy’s steady-state growth rate would increase in both countries. Finally, several policy implications were retrieved.

The value-growth premium in a time-varying risk return framework

In recent years, growth firms outperformed value firms, which led investors to doubt value strategy in their investments. Reworking the Euler equation shows that time-varying risk is responsible for the reverting risk-return relation from negativity contemporaneously to positivity with a time lag. The negative relation is due to the volatility feedback effect, while the positive relation is the risk premium effect. Because of the negative volatility feedback effect, growth firms outperform value firms, particularly in heightened stock market volatility, such as in the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic. However, we find value firms earn a higher average return than growth firms over long horizons.

Interest Rates Capping and Credit Uptake of Commercial Banks in Kenya

In 2016, Kenya enacted the Banking (amendment) Act 2016 which allowed lending interest rates charged by Commercial Banks in Kenya to be fixed at the Central Bank Rate plus a spread of 4% and deposit rates at 70% of the Central Bank Rate. Many banks protested this move since it meant reduced profitability. As a result, commercial banks introduced stringent credit qualification criteria locking out many borrowers who would have otherwise qualified for credit. Therefore, this study sought to establish how interest rate capping affects credit uptake of Commercial Banks in Kenya. The objectives of the study were; to determine the effect of capping lending interest rates, capping deposit interest rates, deposit interest rate spread on credit uptake of commercial banks in Kenya and the moderating effect of inflation risk premium on the relationship between interest rate capping and credit uptake of commercial banks in Kenya. The study was guided by four theories namely: Irving Fisher's Theory of Interest Rates, the Fisher Effect, Loan Pricing Theory and Loanable Funds Theory. The study conducted diagnostic test on multicollinearity normality test and Heteroscedasticity test. The study adopted descriptive research design. The target population for the study was all the 40 licensed commercial banks in Kenya. The sampling frame for the study was all (40) licensed commercial banks in Kenya. This study collected both primary and secondary data because both data reinforced each other. Primary data was collected using semi-structured questionnaires, while secondary data was collected from audited and released financial statements of Commercial Banks in Kenya for the period 2014–2019. The data was analyzed using multiple regressions and descriptive statistics namely: mean median, mode and standard deviation. Quantitative data was presented using tables, pie charts and bar graphs while qualitative data has been presented descriptively. The study established that while capping lending interest rates and interest rate spread had a significant effect on credit uptake of commercial banks in Kenya, capping deposit interest rates was insignificant and the relationship was significantly moderated by inflation risk premium. The study concluded that interest rate spread had the largest effect on credit uptake of commercial banks in Kenya followed by capping lending interest rates and lastly capping deposit interest rates. The study recommends that when formulating policies on interest rate capping, the Central Bank of Kenya should focus more on the lending side as compared to the deposits side. Keywords: Interest rates capping, Credit uptake, Lending interest rates, Deposit interest rates, Interest rates spread, Inflation risk premium.

COVID Asymmetric Impact on the Risk Premium of Developed and Emerging Countries’ Stock Markets

We estimated the stock market risk premium during the COVID-19 pandemic with a GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M)(1,1) model. The analysis then explored the presence of regime changes using a two-regime Markov-Switching GARCH (MS GARCH)(1,1) model. The sample we used included the stock market indexes of nine countries from three geographical regions, including: North America (Canada, USA, and Mexico), South America (Brazil and Argentina), and Asia (Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore), over two periods: (a) pre-COVID (from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2019); and (b) COVID (from 1 January 2020 to 31 December 2021). Our GARCH-M(1,1) estimation results indicate that the more developed countries’ stock markets experienced an important increase in their risk premium during the COVID period, likely explained by the massive government anticyclical policies. By contrast, developing countries’ stock markets, particularly in Latin America, experienced a reduction, and in some cases, even a total loss of the risk premium effect. From the perspective of investors and portfolio risk managers, the identification of high and low volatility periods and their estimated probability of occurrence is useful for the characterization of stress scenarios and the design of emerging strategies. For governments and central bankers, the implementation of different policies should respond to the more likely scenarios but should also be prepared to respond to other less likely scenarios. Institutional preparedness to respond to as many different scenarios as may be identified with the use of MS GARCH models can make their interventions more successful. This work presents an objective example of how the use of MS GARCH models may be of use to practitioners in both the financial industry and government. We confirmed that the results of a two-regime MS GARCH model are superior to those obtained from a single-regime model.

Predicting future exchange rate changes based on interest rates and holding-period returns differentials net of the forward risk premium effects

One of the well-known puzzles in the empirical exchange rate literature is the forward premium anomaly; the interest rates differential between two countries predicts the opposite direction of their future exchange rate changes compared to the predictions of the uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) under the rational expectations hypothesis (REH). In this paper, we show that the above puzzle can be attributed to the time-variation of the exchange rate risk premium (known as forward risk premium). This premium can also explain the failure of the holding-period returns differential to provide unbiased predictions of the future exchange rate changes. To control for the risk premium effects, in this paper we suggest a new forward premium regression framework adjusting the interest rates differential for these effects which are estimated by a two-country term structure model. We provide evidence that the suggested framework can predict the correct direction of the future exchange rate changes for a number of developed countries with liquid currencies. However, its predictive power is small due to excess volatility of the exchange rate changes.

Value Risk Premium and Stock Returns in Kenya: Exploring the Moderating Effect of Investor Sentiment

Purpose:Prior literature has focused on the direct effect of firm level fundamental characteristics on stock returns while ignoring the likely effect of investor irrationality on asset pricing decisions. The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of investor sentiment in the relationship between value risk premium and stock returns in Kenya.
 Design/methodology/approach:
 The study utilized monthly time series data for 60 companies listed at the NSE over the recent 9 years from 2011-2019. The study employed time series regression using ARDL and VEC estimation techniques to examine whether the effect of value risk on stock returns will vary with level of investor sentiment.
 Findings: Results show weak evidence for existence of value risk premium at the NSE using the main effects model. The pricing effect of value risk premium is however enhanced in the interaction model. The interaction though not significant implying that there is no moderating effect of sentiment.
 Research limitations: The shorter nine-year period considered by the study could be a source of small sample bias in the estimation. Sample periods for studies in mature markets span for over decades. In this light, making comparison of the findings in this thesis with those of other related studies may not be feasible.
 Originality/Value: This study is first of its kind to analyze the moderating effect of investor behavior on asset pricing for an emerging market. The paper contributes to portfolio management and asset pricing literature for emerging markets.

Returns, volatility and the cryptocurrency bubble of 2017–18

Research on cryptocurrencies has focused on price and volatility formation in isolation, however knowledge about their interdependence is important for risk management and asset allocation. We investigate the existence and nature of such a relationship in four commonly traded cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple, during the cryptocurrency bubble of 2017–18. Using a generalized asset pricing model, we find evidence of a risk premium effect in Litecoin and Ripple during the boom of 2017, and that adverse news effects were an important driver of the cryptocurrency crash of 2018 in all four cryptocurrencies. In an out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that allowing for stochastic volatility and a heavy tailed distribution provides more accurate return and volatility forecasts compared to a random walk benchmark. This suggests that cryptocurrency markets were not weak-form efficient during this period.

Forecasting equity returns: The role of commodity futures along the supply chain

AbstractThis paper examines equity return predictability using the returns of commodity futures along the supply chain in China's financial market. We find that a considerable number of commodities exhibit significant in‐sample forecasting ability at the daily horizon, especially for supplier‐side equity returns. The macroeconomic risk premium effect, captured by the aggregate commodity prices, is an important source for this predictability. The out‐of‐sample results show that for most commodities, the predictability remains both statistically and economically significant, and the forecasting performance improves substantially during recessions or with economic constraints.

INVESTIGATING VOLATILITY BEHAVIOUR: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM ISLAMIC STOCK INDICES

The main purpose of this research is to apply five univariate GARCH models to thedaily stock returns of four major sharia stock indices. Two symmetric versions of theGARCH model (GARCH and MGARCH) and three asymmetric versions (EGARCH,TGARCH and PGARCH) are employed to estimate and forecast the volatility of fourmajor sharia indices. The results provide strong evidence that all models can depictthe volatility behaviours in all four sharia index returns. The two symmetric modelsindicate that the volatility of a sharia index’s returns depend on its previous own lags,and statistically prove that a rise in volatility (risk) leads to an increase in mean(return), i.e. the risk premium effect. Meanwhile, the three asymmetric modelssuggest that negative shocks to daily returns tend to have higher impact on thevolatility of sharia indices than positive shocks of the same magnitude. Moreover,based on the values of forecasting errors – root mean square errors (RMSE) andmean absolute errors (MAE) – the asymmetric GARCH models outperform thesymmetric models in forecasting the volatility of four major sharia indices. However,the very small difference values of RMSE and MAE among the univariate GARCH-type models denote that no single model is superior to the others.

Investor sentiment effects on share price deviations from their intrinsic values based on accounting fundamentals

We investigate the existence of evidence of investor sentiment on share price deviations from their intrinsic values across two sentiment regimes of shares market: the low-to-normal and the excess one. We use the residual income valuation model to calculate the intrinsic values of shares based on accounting fundamentals and we suggest a panel data threshold model to capture the sentiment regimes of the market, using as threshold variable alternative investor sentiment indices. The suggested model enables us, first, to endogenously identify from the data the threshold value of a sentiment index triggering market sentiment regime shifts and, based on it, to examine if the effects of investor sentiment on share prices across the above two sentiment regimes are in accordance to the theory. Application of the model to UK data shows that investor sentiment influences positively share prices in the low-to-normal and negatively in the excess one. We also show that investor sentiment dominates risk premium effects on shares characterized by low book-to-market, and dividend- and earnings-to-price ratios. The above results are consistent with the predictions of the sentiment hypothesis.

The contagious effect of China’s energy policy on stock markets: The case of the solar photovoltaic industry

Contagion tests through mean and volatility channels are developed based on an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic model to investigate the effects of China’s 2009–2020 solar power policies on the economic performance of different sectors. By examining the fluctuations in the daily stock prices of nine major economic sectors in China, we show the transmission mechanisms of policy shocks and find evidence that China’s major solar energy policies, including feed-in tariffs, solar subsidies, and market-based instruments, have significant effects on most of the studied sectors in China through both mean and volatility contagion channels. Among the three types of policies, feed-in tariffs and solar subsidies are found to be the most effective instruments in improving sector performance, while market-based instruments have the least effect. The risk premium effect is weak, but the asymmetric effect is strong, suggesting that market volatility responds considerably less to positive news than to negative news for the majority of sectors investigated.

The nonlinear relation between financing decisions and option compensation

Recent studies argue that CEO option compensation affects executives’ behavior toward risk. Specifically, the literature provides seemingly conflicting evidence regarding the impact of equity compensation (particularly option holding) on financing activities. We propose and test a nonlinear (e.g., inverted U-shaped) relation between corporate borrowing and option compensation. Consistent with our hypothesis, we empirically show that, in the low range of the option vega, a firm’s debt ratio increases as the option vega increases. However, in the high range of the option vega, we find the opposite relation. Our explanation is based on the contrasting effects of option compensation on managerial incentives toward risk. The positive wealth effect on leverage arises from the convexity of the option compensation, while a negative risk-premium effect exists due to managerial risk aversion. This reconciles the conflicting relation between leverage and option compensation that is often observed in the literature.

Risk, Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in a Global World

We study how monetary policy and risk shocks affect major asset prices (short-term interest rates, stocks, long-term bonds) in three large economies, the US, the euro area, and Japan, since the turn of the century. Examining the impact of monetary policy on risk, monetary policy does not drive asset price cycles through a risk channel. Instead, we find a strong global common component in risk shocks which is not driven by monetary policy. Comparing the impact of monetary policy and risk shocks on asset prices across countries, monetary policy spillovers are economically more (less) important for interest rates and bond prices (stock prices) than risk shocks. The US generates relatively important monetary policy spillovers, but information shocks emanating from the euro area produce the strongest effects on international stock and bond markets. We provide suggestive evidence that monetary policy effects on asset prices reflect a persistent interest rate rather than a risk premium effect.

Modeling stock market return volatility in the presence of structural breaks

This study sought to model the stock market return volatility at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) in the presence of structural breaks. Using daily NSE 20 share index for the period 04/01/2010 to 29/12/2017, the market return volatility was modeled using different GARCH type models and taking into account four endogenously identified structural breaks. The market exhibited a non-normal distribution that was leptokurtic and negatively skewed and also showed evidence for ARCH effects, volatility clustering, and volatility persistence. We found that by considering structural breaks, volatility persistence was reduced, while leverage effects were found to lead to explosive volatility. In addition, investors were not rewarded for taking up additional risk since the risk premium was insignificant for the full period. However, during explosive volatility, investors were rewarded for taking up more risk. Moreover, we found that risk premium, leverage effects, and volatility persistence were significantly correlated. The GARCH (1,1) and TGARCH(1,1) models were found to be the best fit models to test for symmetric and asymmetric effects respectively. While the GARCH models were able to provide evidence for the stylized facts in the NSE, we conclude that the presence or absence of these features is period specific. This especially relates to volatility persistence, leverage effects, and risk premium effects. Caution should, therefore, be taken in using a specific GARCH model to forecast market return volatility in Kenya. It is thus imperative to pretest the data before any return volatility forecasting is done.

The influence of real interest rates and risk premium effects on the ability of the nominal term structure to forecast inflation

Based on an empirically attractive Gaussian dynamic term structure model and data on the short-term real interest rate and per capita real consumption, this paper examines the information content of the nominal term structure of interest rates with respect to inflation, real interest rates and risk premium effects. The paper finds a number of interesting results, which have monetary policy implications. First, it shows that the suggested model fits well the data and provides estimates of real interest rates and expected inflation rates which are very close to those given by survey data. Second, it provides clear cut evidence that the nominal term structure is mainly determined by movements in real interest rates and, to a lesser extent, by inflation and risk premium effects. These results mean that term spreads between long and short-term nominal rates fail to forecast future changes in inflation rates because are dominated by real term structure effects, which are not orthogonal to inflation rate shocks (changes). Third, to retrieve information from the term spread models of nominal interest rates about future inflation rate changes, the paper suggests a regression model which adjusts the nominal interest rates term spreads for the real term structure effects.

Exchange Rate Dynamics, Endogenous Risk Premium and the Balance Sheet Effect: An Effective Demand Model

This article describes a macroeconomic framework for analysing the interaction between output, domestic interest rate and exchange rate in the presence of the endogenous risk premium and balance sheet effect of exchange rate depreciation on investment demand. Output is demand determined. There are three assets: money, domestic bonds and foreign bonds. Domestic bonds and foreign bonds are not perfect substitutes due to the presence of risk premium. The endogenous risk premium depends on certain macroeconomic fundamentals, namely budget deficit and current account balance. Using this framework, we will examine implications of monetary policy, fiscal policy, tariff liberalization and global interest rate hike for exchange rate dynamics and output. The balance sheet effect and the risk premium together explain how an expansionary fiscal policy may generate recession, while tariff liberalization may produce favourable macroeconomic outcomes. Moreover, the model shows that an increase in world interest rate may have contractionary effect on the domestic output level due to the presence of the balance sheet effect of exchange rate depreciation. JEL Classification: E27, E63, F13, F32

Oil Jump Risk

We show that the innovation in the risk-neutral probability of large downward and upward jumps in oil prices has a considerable predictive power for important economic indicators such as GDP growth, consumption growth, and total investment. In addition, we observe that the upside jump risk probability is a significant predictor of stock market index return and the returns of oil futures. Furthermore, the upside jump probability is a significant and relatively strong predictor of oil market fundamentals including inventory growth, demand growth, and OPEC’s production growth. Upside jump risk is also a driver of the cross-section of stock returns before the U.S. oil production increase in 2011. The average monthly return for the high-low upside jump risk exposure portfolio is -0.94% and -1.13%, using the 1996-2014 and 1996-2011 time periods respectively. The implications of the variance risk for the cross-section of stock returns vanishes after controlling for the large upside and downside jump risks. The shale revolution and considerable increase of the US oil production have killed the effect of upside risk premium after 2011. During the sub-period 2011-2014, the variance risk premium gets significant again, like it was before 2000.

Exchange rate targeting in the presence of foreign debt obligations

We study the impact of foreign debt on the optimal degree of trade-off between the three open economy objectives of the central bank—the desire to smooth exchange rate fluctuations to promote consumption risk sharing, the need for exchange rate flexibility to facilitate expenditure-switching in the face of sticky prices, and the incentive to tilt international prices so as to lower the labor effort of domestic households (terms-of-trade externality)—in a two-country productivity-shock-driven DSGE model with incomplete asset markets and deviations from purchasing power parity. We find that high levels of net foreign debt call for a policy with a significant degree of exchange rate management, which can constrain the extent of otherwise inefficient cross-border wealth transfers that arise due to debt valuation and risk premium effects. In particular, the central bank can improve consumer welfare by up to 0.1% of steady state consumption by responding to exchange rate fluctuations when domestic debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 100%. We also find that the ranking of optimal policy rules depends on the elasticity of import-export substitution. When home and foreign goods are complements, the responsiveness of the real exchange to shocks is muted, in turn mitigating the excessive cross-country wealth transfer associated with the debt valuation effect. In this case, CPI targeting outperforms the nominal peg at high levels of debt by improving international risk sharing.