Terrorism Risk Research Articles

아시아 지역의 안보 위협: 테러의 위험성

아시아 지역의 안보 위협: 테러의 위험성

Suspicious preoperational activities and law enforcement interdiction of terrorist plots

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to provide a metric for validating the Nationwide Suspicious Activity Reporting (SAR) Initiative’s (NSI) sixteen-category instrument, which is designed to guide law enforcement in the collection and analysis of suspicious behaviors preceding serious crimes, including terrorist attacks.Design/methodology/approachData on suspicious preoperational activities and terrorism incident outcomes in the USA between 1972 and 2013 come from the American Terrorism Study (ATS). Using a mixed-method approach, the authors conduct descriptive and multivariate analyses to examine the frequencies of the least and most prevalent suspicious activities (or SAR indicators) and how they predict the likelihood of terrorism prevention. In addition, the authors contextualize how configurations of SAR indicators are associated with the successful thwarting of terrorism incidents by law enforcement using an analytical method known as conjunctive analysis of case configurations (CACC).FindingsThe study reveals several key findings. First, certain behaviors categorized as suspicious, such as making threats, occur more frequently than others. Second, making threats, conducting surveillance and terrorist recruitment/financing predict law enforcement interdiction in terrorism plots, while misrepresentation (or the manufacturing and use of false documents) is more associated with terrorist success. Third, prevalent SAR indicators operate differently in the context of various combinations of suspicious activities to shape the likelihood for law enforcement interdiction.Research limitations/implicationsThe current study’s findings may not be generalizable to other forms of violent extremism and terrorism outside of the USA.Practical implicationsThis study illuminates opportunities for the NSI to provide law enforcement with the necessary tools to reduce terrorism risk and prevent future attacks.Originality/valueTo our knowledge, no scholarly work to date has assessed how observable behavioral indicators of suspicious preoperational activities affect the outcomes of terrorist plots.

The fear of terrorism and shift in cosmopolitan values

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate how international tourists’ cosmopolitan values change due to the restraining fear of terrorism, and how this change affects their worldview, destination perception and travel preferences. Design/methodology/approach In-depth interviews were conducted with international travellers from all five continents to pinpoint the universal shifts in cosmopolitan values, specifically regarding risk perception in the face of terrorism. Findings Tourists’ personal values are changing due to the increased risk of terrorism (or the perception of it), which prompts international travellers to act less on their desire for stimulation and more for their need for security when travelling. Just as any change in values tends to be relatively permanent, this value shift might have long-term consequences for the entire tourism industry. Research limitations/implications Terrorism risk perception and its retraining effect regarding willingness to travel were established to be significant and universal. However, this study suggests that the strength of the travellers’ cosmopolitan orientation influences the extent terrorism risk is acted upon. Results indicate that the higher the travellers’ cosmopolitan conviction is, the less significantly they seem to be affected by the fear of terrorism. Practical implications The study offers cues on how managers and policy makers can enhance destination image that keeps up with the current realities of global tourism in the face of terrorism, and highlights a promising market segment, strongly cosmopolitan travellers who are less concerned with potential travel risks and react less negatively in troubled times. Originality/value Most of the previous studies considered tourists’ cosmopolitanism as a stable orientation rather than a context-specific state. This study addresses this gap by exploring how resilient the tourists’ cosmopolitan desire for openness and freedom is under the risk perception of terrorism, and what effect the fear of terrorism has on their travel habits.

Связь террористического риска и национального дохода

The paper discusses the relationship between the increased risk of terrorism and the level of economic development of the country. The author assumes that wealthy countries have wide opportunities to enhance their anti-terrorist policies, promote coun-ter-terrorist activities, and ensure national security in comparison with the low-income states. That is why the level of economic development should signifi-cantly affect the level of terrorist risk in the country. The researcher takes quantitative approaches to assessing data, conducts regression, logit, and pro-bit analysis. The hierarchical cluster analysis and non-parametric tests are used as well. The study reveals that the national income is linked to the ter-rorist risk even if other determinants are taken into account.

Providing Security along the Silk Road: Bridging the Russian and Chinese Security Concerns in Central Asia

Bien que l’Asie centrale demeure une région relativement stable, elle fait face à divers problèmes de sécurité : risque de radicalisation, terrorisme, affrontements ethniques, trafic de drogue et répercussions de l’Afghanistan. Zone d’influence de plus en plus disputée entre la Chine et la Russie, la sécurité y est assurée par un réseau de mécanismes bilatéraux ainsi que par les organisations régionales de sécurité (OTSC et OSC). En raison de la détérioration de l’économie russe et de la diminution de l’effet de levier sur les États d’Asie centrale, le rôle de l’OTSC se réduit. Depuis l’élargissement de l’OCS, la question se pose de savoir si l’organisation sera en mesure de continuer à servir de plate-forme de médiation entre les intérêts de la Chine et ceux de la Russie. Les deux pays, réticents à s’engager dans une coopération multilatérale à part entière, préfèrent leurs propres formes de coopération en matière de sécurité, tant avec les États de la région qu’entre eux. Ce filet de sécurité pourrait toutefois s’avérer insuffisant.

Terrorism Risk Assessment, Recollection Bias, and Public Support for Counterterrorism Policy and Spending.

Recollection bias (RB) refers to the phenomenon whereby after an adverse event people report that their risk assessment about a similar future event is presently no higher than their recollection of their pre-event risk assessment. While previous research has outlined this theoretical construct and generated important empirical findings, there were some limitations. We design and employ a new national representative survey to address these limitations in this study. We examine the existence and persistence of RB among the general public in the context of a number of domestic and international terrorist attacks. We further examine the socioeconomic and political base of RB and the influences of RB on a wide range of citizens' counterterrorism policy preferences. Our data analyses reveal strong evidence showing the occurrence of RB and its persistence across various forms of terrorism risk. With regard to the socioeconomic and political base, we find that females, older people, political conservatives, and Republicans are less likely to be subject to RB. For the effects of RB on public counterterrorism policy preferences, our analyses demonstrate that this bias significantly dampens public support for a wide range of preventive policy measures and government anti-terrorism spending. Overall, our study, based on a national representative sample and an extended survey design, provides robust evidence of RB in terrorism risk assessment, and adds further evidence to support the idea that RB is likely a generalizable phenomenon. Implications and suggestions for future research are discussed in the conclusion.

Strategies and effective decision-making against terrorism affecting supply chain risk management and security

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the knowledge gaps in the published research on terrorism-related risk in supply chains, and to develop a framework of strategies and effective decision-making to enable practitioners to address terrorism-related risks in supply chain risk management (SCRM) and security.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopts a novel combination of triangulated methods comprising a systematic literature review (SLR), text mining and network analysis. These methods have not been jointly utilized in past studies, and the approach constitutes a rigorous methodology that cross-validates results and ensures the reliability and validity of qualitative data.FindingsThe study reveals a number of key themes in the field of SCRM and security linked with terrorism. The authors identify relevant mitigation strategies and practices for effective strategic decision making. This subsequently leads us to develop a strategic framework of strategies and effective decision-making practices to address terrorism-related risk, affecting SCRM and security. The authors also identify key knowledge gaps in the literature and explore the main contributions by disciplines (e.g. business schools, engineering and maritime institutions) and countries.Practical implicationsThe authors provide a strategic framework of strategies and effective decision-making practices that managers can use to minimize terrorism-related risk in the context of SCRM and security.Originality/valueThis paper introduces a novel methodological combination for improving the quality of SLRs. It uses the approach to systematically review the strategies and effective decision-making practices interlinked with terrorism risk, affecting SCRM and security. It identifies significant knowledge gaps and defines directions for future research.

자국 내 테러발생 요인 및 테러사건의 특성분석을 통한 테러발생 위험가능성에 관한 연구

자국 내 테러발생 요인 및 테러사건의 특성분석을 통한 테러발생 위험가능성에 관한 연구

Sequential Refined Partitioning for Probabilistic Dependence Assessment.

Modeling dependence probabilistically is crucial for many applications in risk assessment and decision making under uncertainty. Neglecting dependence between multivariate uncertainties can distort model output and prevent a proper understanding of the overall risk. Whenever relevant data for quantifying and modeling dependence between uncertain variables are lacking, expert judgment might be sought to assess a joint distribution. Key challenges for the use of expert judgment for dependence modeling are over- and underspecification. An expert can provide assessments that are infeasible, i.e., not consistent with any probability distribution (overspecification), and on the other hand, without making very restrictive parametric assumptions an expert cannot fully define a probability distribution (underspecification). The sequential refined partitioning method addresses over- and underspecification while allowing for flexibility about which part of a joint distribution is assessed and its level of detail. Potential overspecification is avoided by ensuring low cognitive complexity for experts through eliciting single conditioning sets and by offering feasible assessment ranges. The feasible range of any (sequential) assessment can be derived by solving a linear programming problem. Underspecification is addressed by modeling the density of directly and indirectly assessed distribution parts as minimally informative given their constraints. Hence, our method allows for modeling the whole distribution feasibly and in accordance with experts' information. A nonparametric way of assessing and modeling dependence flexibly in such detail has not been presented in the expert judgment literature for probabilistic dependence models so far. We provide an example of assessing terrorism risk in insurance underwriting.

Perceptions of “others,” risk, and counter terrorism-related informal social control

Anti-terrorism messages associate immigration and minorities with terrorism even if this link is not explicit. The consequence is the potential for racial profiling of minorities as threats to national security. Recent experiences or threats of domestic terrorism, in Australia, the US, and other industrialized countries, have led policy makers to encourage informal social control in terrorism prevention efforts by appealing to citizens to report suspicious behavior to authorities. The linking of ethnically different “others”—members of Australia’s population who are or are perceived to be outsiders to the mainstream—and terrorism is important because who is seen as threatening effects whether individuals engage in informal social control; the willingness of residents to recognize, intervene, and report suspicious behavior. However, the concept of “others” in relation to informal social control is more complicated than just immigration status and ethnic identity alone. This study examines whether perceptions of “others” are related to perceptions of terrorism risk and perceptions of informal social control in reporting national security threats.

Perceived Risk of Terrorism and Policy Preferences for Government Counterterrorism Spending: Evidence From a U.S. National Panel Survey

Drawing on past literature and using data from a two‐wave survey, we expand existing research to examine how individual social‐economic‐political characteristics and psychometric factors shape citizens’ terrorism risk perception, and how such risk perception and citizens’ perception of government competence affect policy preference for government counterterrorism spending. Using the two‐wave panel data, we also assess whether there is decay over time in the public's overall risk perception and in their overall policy preference for counterterrorism spending. We further examine the key factors driving changes between the two waves in individual respondents’ risk perception and spending preference. Results reveal that risk perception is influenced by both social‐economic‐political characteristics and psychometric factors, with the latter showing stronger predictive power, and that higher levels of risk perception and greater perceived government competence lead to stronger support for counterterrorism spending. We find no significant decay between the two waves in either the overall level of risk perception or the overall level of spending preference, but at the individual level, changes in risk perception are positively associated with changes in psychometric variables, and changes in spending preference are predicted by changes in perceived risk and changes in perceived government competence.

Terrorism measures in Bahrain: proportionality and the interplay between security, civil liberties and political stability

ABSTRACTAs a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Bahrain is a strategically significant country in the Arabian Gulf. Against a backdrop of political instability and sectarian tension, Bahrain faces a substantial risk of terrorism. Currently this threat arises internally from extremist Shia opposition groups that seek to replace the Sunni monarchy with an Iranian-style republic. Bahrain also faces a transnational threat of terrorism from the Islamic State. In response to these threats of terrorism, Bahrain has developed a framework of laws and policies that rely on a broad definition of terrorism and provide for significant powers to counter the threat. Its approach has been criticised as repressive and overly restrictive on civil liberties. This article examines Bahrain's counter-terrorist framework, focusing on the balance it achieves between security and civil liberties. Relying on the principle of proportionality, it is argued that some of the measures, such as the law that prohibits demonstrations within the capital city of Manama, are disproportionate to the aim of countering terrorism. Consequently, it is submitted that the framework could be improved through an explicit and transparent reliance on the principle of proportionality as a policy-making tool.

Ethnic political exclusion and terrorism: Analyzing the local conditions for violence

Previous work finds that countries that contain an excluded group are at higher risk of terrorism. However, there are good reasons to think that the impact of exclusion may be more likely to motivate ethnic violence when this exclusion is paired with local conditions that increase awareness of intergroup competition. In this study, we examine sub-national terrorist violence and find that areas that contain an excluded ethnic group are at higher risk of violence. Moreover, this risk is heightened by local population density, wealth, and country regime type.

دور عضو هيئة التّدريس في الجامعات الأردنيّة في توعية الطّلبة بمخاطر الفكر الإرهابي والمتطرف وتنمية الحس الوطني لديهم من وجهه نظر طلبتها

هدفت الدّراسة الحالية التّعرف إلى دور عضو هيئة التّدريس في الجامعات الأردنيّة في توعية الطّلبة بمخاطر الفكر الإرهابي والمتطرف، وتنمية الحس الوطني لديهم من وجهه نظر طلبتها. ولتحقيق أهداف الدّراسة جرى اختيار عينة مكونة من (459) طالبًا وطالبة ممن يدرسون في الجامعات الأردنيّة، جرى اختيارهم بطريقة عشوائية، من مجتمع الدّراسة البالغ (٢٣٥١٠٦) طالبًا وطالبة. واستخدم الباحث المنهج الوصفي التّحليلي، حيث صُمم استبانة خاصة لأغراض الدّراسة اشتملت على مجالين: المجال الأول وتناول دور عضو هيئة التّدريس في الجامعات الأردنيّة في توعية الطّلبة بمخاطر الفكر الإرهابي والمتطرف اشتملت على (18) فقرة، والمجال الثاني تناول دور عضو هيئة التّدريس في الجامعات الأردنيّة في تنمية الحس الوطني للطّلبة، واشتملت على (15) فقرة وجرى التأكد من صدقها وثباتها. حيث توصلت نتائج الدّراسة إلى أنّ دور عضو هيئة التّدريس في الجامعات الأردنيّة في توعية الطّلبة بمخاطر الفكر الإرهابي والمتطرف، وتنمية الحس الوطني لديهم من وجهه نظر طلبتها كانت بصورة عامة بدرجة متوسطة، وأظهرت نتائج الدّراسة أيضًا وجود فروق ذات دلالة إحصائية عند مستوى الدلالة (a =0.05) تعزى لمتغير الجنس ولصالح الطّلبة الذكور، ووجود فروق ذات دلالة إحصائية عند مستوى الدلالة (a =0.05) تعزى لمتغير الكليات ولصالح الكليات الإنسانيّة.

Linking Counter Terrorism and Refugee Law: Unravelling the (Undue) Nexus with International Law

The link between the arrivals of refugees seeking international protection and an increase in the risk of terrorism seems to have been already established in public opinion and it has been a basis for the recent adoption of controversial measures, including the suspension of the Schengen Agreement in Europe or the so-called Muslim Ban in the United States. Against the backdrop of an alleged refugees-terrorism nexus, the purpose of this paper is to understand whether there is any degree of convergence or, conversely, divergence, between the crimes included within the “exclusion clause” under International Refugee Law (IRL) and the acts classified as “terrorist acts” under Counter-Terrorism Law (CTL), with particular reference to the European context. After some introductory remarks, the paper discusses the grounds for exclusions under IRL and European Law in section 2, while in section 3 the multiple definitions of terrorist offences under CTL are presented. Section 4 aims at discussing specific circumstances leading to the exclusion of an individual from refugee status on the basis of terrorism. Some conclusive remarks are finally proposed.

Terrorism risks, chasing ghosts and infrastructure resilience

Risk is the integration of threat, vulnerability and consequences, but threat is often based on worse-case thinking about the capability of terrorists to successfully plan and execute large-scale bombings. The paper looks at the nature of terrorists by exploring their capabilities and motivation, technical skills, and target selection. Key among this is the risk of progressive collapse of multi-storey buildings, and the track record of terrorists attacking targets in the West. In the past decade, most deaths from terrorists in the West have arisen from shooting attacks, vehicle impact, and mass transit bombings. In this case, there is little or no need to protect civilian buildings, bridges and other infrastructure from car or truck bombs unless there is a specific threat. Existing infrastructure has also proven to be highly resilient and robust against car and truck bombings. It is easy to overestimate the impacts of terrorist attacks. An improved understanding of the threat allows decision-makers to more effectively deploy resources to counter it, which includes appropriate design and assessment of civilian and military protective structures. A case study describes existing fatality risks from progressive collapse caused by a large vehicle bomb, and then assesses the costs and benefits of design (protective) measures mandated by the United States to mitigate against progressive collapse for new or leased federal government (civilian and defence) buildings.

Perception of Terror Risk and of the Security of Counter-Terrorism Design in Public Spaces

Perception of Terror Risk and of the Security of Counter-Terrorism Design in Public Spaces

Erör Riskine Yönelik Seyahat Uyarıları: Türkiye ye En Fazla Turist Gönderen Ülkelerin Yaklaşımları (Travel Warnings against Terrorism Risk: The Approach of Top Tourist Source Countries to Turkey)

Based on official travel warnings and advisories against terrorism, this study aims to examine the announcements issued by top tourist source countries to Turkey in recent years and Turkey’s condition within these announcements. Travel warnings and advisories, issued on the Foreign Ministry web pages, of Germany, Russia, United Kingdom, Bulgaria, and Iran were analyzed as secondary data within the qualitative research and descriptive analysis was conducted to interpret the data. Results of the study revealed differences in the warnings of tourist source countries and bilateral relations between countries may have a dominating role on travel warnings. By July of 2017, Georgia has neither travel warnings nor advisories against Turkey. United Kingdom, which does not have a special travel warning list, gives the most detailed information about terrorism incidents in Turkey. Iran and Russia have travel warnings about terrorism risk in Turkey. Bulgaria ranks Turkey in the second-level risky countries and advises its citizens to get more information about the current condition of the country. While Turkey is not listed among the countries where Germany has issued travel warnings, it provides information on the latest terrorist incidents in Turkey. Iran, Russia, and Bulgaria do not point out a clear case or place except from Southeast region, though it is stated in their travel advisories that Turkey is under high risk of terrorism. From the point of travel advisory principles of World Tourism Organization, it has become clear that the warnings of tourist source countries must be discussed in terms of reliability and ethics.

The influence of terrorism risk on stock market integration: Evidence from eight OECD countries

This study investigates the implications of terrorism activities and fear on the dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) between eight OECD stock markets over time (2001–2014). We begin with eight portfolios, each comprising of eight OECD MSCIs. For each portfolio, we calculate time varying DCCs between one OECD MSCI (of a domestic country) and seven other OECD MSCI (foreign country). Next we examine the reaction of each of the eight sets of DCCs to domestic and foreign terrorism risks. Our findings suggest that the DCCs between France and other seven OECD countries are not affected by terrorism risks over time. The flight-to-safety effects of foreign terrorism or a fall in the DCCs due to foreign terrorism risks are found for the other seven cases. Domestic terrorism is found to have contagion effects for the case of Australia, UK, Germany, Turkey and flight-to-safety effects for the case of the US and Canada. Our study finds that the effect of terrorism depends on expansionary and contractionary phases of the domestic business cycles, particularly in the case of Australia, UK and the US. These results are derived after controlling for other determinants of stock market integration, such as market characteristics and macroeconomic and financial risk factors.

A Successful (Yet Somewhat Untested) Case of Disaster Financing: Terrorism Insurance Under TRIA, 2002–2020

AbstractThe Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) established a public–private partnership between the U.S. federal government, private insurers, and all commercial enterprises operating on U.S. soil. Renewed and modified in January 2015 until December 2020, the TRIA program requires insurers to offer terrorism insurance to their commercial policyholders while providing insurers with free up‐front financial protection up to $100 billion against terrorist attacks in the United States. With the federal government providing a financial safety net, the private insurance sector can offer coverage against an uncertain risk that would otherwise be largely considered uninsurable, thus making terrorism insurance widely available and affordable. TRIA is a successful case of public–private disaster risk financing that has received bipartisan political support. Yet it remains untested for large losses and it is unclear how the market and policymakers will react should another large‐scale insured loss occur. TRIA also raises concerns about the indemnification of individual victims of a terrorist attack (in addition to workers’ compensation).