Risk Of Short-term Mortality Research Articles

Prognostic value of new-onset right bundle-branch block in acute myocardial infarction patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BackgroundPatients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and bundle-branch block have poor prognoses. The new European Society of Cardiology guideline suggests a primary percutaneous coronary intervention strategy when persistent ischemic symptoms occur in patients with persistent ischemic symptoms and right bundle-branch block (RBBB), but the level of evidence is not high. In fact, the presence of RBBB may lead to the misdiagnosis of transmural ischemia and mask the early diagnosis of ST-elevation myocardial infarction. Moreover, new-onset RBBB is occasionally caused by AMI. Our study aims to investigate the prognostic value of new-onset RBBB in AMI.Methods and ResultsWe conducted a meta-analysis of studies to evaluate the prognostic value of RBBB in AMI patients. Of 914 primary records, five studies and 874 MI patients were included for meta-analysis. Compared with previous RBBB, AMI patients with new-onset RBBB had a higher risk of long-term mortality (RR, 1.66, 95% CI [1.31–2.09], I2 = 0.0%, p = 0.000, n = 2), ventricular arrhythmia (RR, 4.86, 95% CI [2.10–11.27], I2 = 0.0%, p = 0.000, n = 3), and cardiogenic shock (RR, 2.76, 95% CI [1.66–4.59], I2 = 0.0%, p = 0.000, n = 3), but a lower risk of heart failure (RR, 0.66, 95% CI [0.52–0.85], I2 = 2.50%, p = 0.001, n = 4). Compared with AMI patients with new-onset permanent RBBB, patients with new-onset transient RBBB had a lower risk of short-term mortality (RR, 0.20, 95% CI [0.11–0.37], I2 = 44.1%, p = 0.000, n = 4).ConclusionNew-onset RBBB is likely to increase long-term mortality, ventricular arrhythmia, and cardiogenic shock, but not heart failure in AMI patients. AMI patients with new-onset transient RBBB have a lower risk of short-term mortality than those with new-onset permanent RBBB. Revascularization therapies should be considered when persistent ischemic symptoms occur in patients with RBBB, especially new-onset RBBB.

Short- and long-term mortality after pulmonary embolism in patients with and without cancer.

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a major cause of mortality and morbidity. It is known that the risk of death varies by provoking factors; however, it is unknown if the risk of death persists beyond the initial diagnosis among patients with cancer-associated and non-cancer provoked patients. In this study, we aimed to investigate the effect of cancer on overall, short- and long-term mortality in a cohort of consecutive incident PE patients. Using administrative databases, we identified all incident cases of PE between 2004 and 2012 in Alberta, Canada. Cases were stratified by provoking factors (i.e. unprovoked, provoked, and cancer-associated). A multivariate Cox survival model was used to estimate the hazard ratios of short- and long-term death. We identified 8641 patients with PE, among which 42.2% were unprovoked, 37.9% were provoked and 19.9% were cancer-associated. The 1-year and 5-year survival probabilities were 60% (95% CI: 57-64%) and 39% (95% CI: 36-43%) in patients with cancer-associated PE, 93% (95% CI: 92-94%) and 80% (95% CI: 78-81%) in provoked PE, and 94% (95% CI: 93-95%) and 85% (95% CI: 83-87%) in unprovoked PE, respectively. Compared to patients with unprovoked events, both short-term and long-term survival in patients with cancer-associated PE have a higher observed risk of all-cause mortality in all age groups ( p<0.001). In contrast, patients with provoked events had a similar short- and long-term all-cause mortality. While PE has a significant mortality in all risk groups, patients with cancer have a higher risk of short-term mortality compared to patients with unprovoked PE.

Performance status and in-hospital mortality of elderly patients with community acquired pneumonia

To evaluate the role of performance status evaluated by the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) score in predicting 30-day mortality in subjects hospitalized for community acquired pneumonia (CAP), this was a prospective study of patients consecutively hospitalized for CAP at a large University Hospital in Italy. Performance status was evaluated using the ECOG score that in a 0-5 point scale indicates progressive functional deterioration. The end-point of the study is the 30-day mortality. Two-hundred-sixteen patients were enrolled, 75.9% were aged > 70years, 31.5% had severe pneumonia at CURB-65 score (3-4), and 27.5% of patients had severe disability (ECOG 3-4). Thirty-day mortality is 15.3%. Progression in ECOG score independently increases the probability of 30-day mortality at multivariable logistic regression analysis (HR 2.19, 95% CI 1.60-3.01, p < 0.0001). ECOG 3 or 4 determines a four-fold increase in 30-day mortality (HR 4.07, 95% CI 1.84-9.02, p < 0.001). ECOG score 3 or 4 is highly predictive of death in patients classified at low risk of mortality by CURB-65 (0-2 points) score. Functional status is directly related to outcome in elderly patients hospitalized for CAP. The use of a very simple and fast tool, such as the ECOG score, might help to better stratify the risk of short-term mortality, especially in patients otherwise classified at low risk of death by CURB-65 score.

CE: Malnutrition in Older Adults.

: Older adults are at risk for compromised nutritional status because of physical changes associated with aging, as well as cognitive, psychological, and social factors such as dementia, depression, isolation, and limited income. Malnutrition negatively affects quality of life, increases health care costs, and increases the risk of short-term mortality. Nurses and other members of interdisciplinary health care teams play important roles in preventing malnutrition in community-dwelling older adults and in older adults in long-term care settings. This article provides an overview of screening tools and interventions nurses can use to minimize the risk of malnutrition in older adults.

Postdialysis recovery time is extended in patients with greater self-reported depression screening questionnaire scores.

Most patients take time to recover after a hemodialysis (HD) session. It has been suggested that recovery time is associated with intradialytic hypotension and rapid solute clearances. Other studies have reported a linkage to depression. We investigated the association between recovery time and intradialytic hypotension and depression. In five UK HD units, we screened for depressive symptoms using the Beck depression inventory-II, Patient Health Questionnaire, and recorded sessional blood pressures and Kt/Vurea. Seven hundred and one HD patients were studied; 63.6% male, mean age 64.1 ± 16.6 years, 33.5% diabetic. About 24.1% recovered in <1 hour, 27% 1-4 hours, 15.4% 4-8 hours, 10.7% 8-12 hours, and 22.8% after 12 hours. Systolic blood pressure fell by ≥20 mmHg in 30.9% postdialysis, and to <100 mmHg in 7.6%. In multivariate analysis, patients with recovery times >1 hour were more likely to be female, have high self-reported Beck depression inventory-II scores, a past medical history of depression, and be living without a partner. Longer recovery times were also associated with very low postdialysis systolic blood pressures (<100 mmHg), and higher body weight. However, the model predicted only 18% of the variation in recovery times. We found no association between recovery times and short-term mortality risk. Prolonged postdialysis recovery times are associated with higher self-reported depression scores, and very low postdialysis blood pressure. Future studies investigating changes in dialysis practice and recovery times will need to target strategies to prevent intradialytic hypotension and adjust for patient psychological status.

Infections complicating cirrhosis.

Patients with cirrhosis have a high risk of bacterial infections. Bacterial infections induce systemic inflammation that may lead to organ failure and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) resulting in a high risk of short term mortality. The early diagnosis and treatment of bacterial infections is essential to improve the patient's prognosis. However, in recent years, the spread of multidrug resistant (MDR) bacterial infections has reduced the efficacy of commonly used antibiotics such as third generation cephalosporins. In patients at high risk of MDR bacteria, such as those with nosocomial infections, the early administration of broad spectrum antibiotics has been shown to improve the prognosis. However, early de-escalation of antibiotics is recommended to reduce a further increase in antibiotic resistance. Strategies to prevent acute kidney injury and other organ failures should be implemented. Although prophylaxis of bacterial infections with antibiotics improves the prognosis in selected patients, their use should be limited to patients at high risk of developing infections. In this article, we review the pathogenesis and management of bacterial infections in patients with cirrhosis.

Association of Depression With Mortality in Older Adults Undergoing Transcatheter or Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement

Depression is increasingly recognized as a risk factor for adverse outcomes in cardiovascular disease. However, little is known about depression in older adults undergoing transcatheter (TAVR) or surgical (SAVR) aortic valve replacement. To determine the prevalence of depression and its association with all-cause mortality in older adults undergoing TAVR or SAVR. This preplanned analysis of the Frailty Aortic Valve Replacement (FRAILTY-AVR) prospective cohort study included 14 centers in 3 countries from November 15, 2011, through April 7, 2016. Individuals 70 years or older who underwent TAVR or SAVR were enrolled. Depressive symptoms were evaluated using the Geriatric Depression Scale Short Form at baseline and follow-up. All-cause mortality at 1 and 12 months after TAVR or SAVR. Logistic regression was used to determine the association of depression with mortality after adjusting for confounders such as frailty and cognitive impairment. Among 1035 older adults (427 men [41.3%] and 608 women [58.7%]) with a mean (SD) age of 81.4 (6.1) years, 326 (31.5%) had a positive result of screening for depression, whereas only 89 (8.6%) had depression documented in their clinical record. After adjusting for clinical and geriatric confounders, baseline depression was found to be associated with mortality at 1 month (odds ratio [OR], 2.20; 95% CI, 1.18-4.10) and at 12 months (OR, 1.532; 95% CI, 1.03-2.24). Persistent depression, defined as baseline depression that was still present 6 months after the procedure, was associated with a 3-fold increase in mortality at 12 months (OR, 2.98; 95% CI, 1.08-8.20). One in 3 older adults undergoing TAVR or SAVR had depressive symptoms at baseline and a higher risk of short-term and midterm mortality. Patients with persistent depressive symptoms at follow-up had the highest risk of mortality.

Citrullinated histone H3 as a novel prognostic blood marker in patients with advanced cancer.

Citrullinated histone H3 (H3Cit) is a central player in the neutrophil release of nuclear chromatin, known as neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs). NETs have been shown to elicit harmful effects on the host, and were recently proposed to promote tumor progression and spread. Here we report significant elevations of plasma H3Cit in patients with advanced cancer compared with age-matched healthy individuals. These elevations were specific to cancer patients as no increase was observed in severely ill and hospitalized patients with a higher non-malignant comorbidity. The analysis of neutrophils from cancer patients showed a higher proportion of neutrophils positive for intracellular H3Cit compared to severely ill patients. Moreover, the presence of plasma H3Cit in cancer patients strongly correlated with neutrophil activation markers neutrophil elastase (NE) and myeloperoxidase (MPO), and the inflammatory cytokines interleukin-6 and -8, known to induce NETosis. In addition, we show that high levels of circulating H3Cit strongly predicted poor clinical outcome in our cohort of cancer patients with a 2-fold increased risk for short-term mortality. Our results also corroborate the association of NE, interleukin-6 and -8 with poor clinical outcome. Taken together, our results are the first to unveil H3Cit as a potential diagnostic and prognostic blood marker associated with an exacerbated inflammatory response in patients with advanced cancer.

Cardiovascular risk factor control and the short-term risk of mortality in patients hospitalized for atherosclerotic peripheral arterial disease

Impact of cardiovascular (CV) risk factor control for short-term mortality in patients with atherosclerotic peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is not known. We aimed to determine the prognostic value of major CV risk factor control for 1-year mortality in patients hospitalized for PAD. Data from the COhorte des Patients ARTériopathes registry, a prospective multicenter, observational study of patients hospitalized for symptomatic PAD in academic hospitals of southwestern France, were analyzed. Associations between hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia and smoking status with 1-year mortality and CV events were evaluated by Cox analysis. Control of each CV risk factor was evaluated at 2 months after hospital discharge: blood pressure target < 140/90 mmHg, low-density lipoprotein < 1 g/L, glycohemoglobin < 7.5% and smoking cessation. Multivariate regression analyses were performed to determine the impact of risk-factor control on 1-year CV events (CV death, myocardial infarction, stroke, amputation) and total mortality. From July 2007 to December 2013, 670 patients with completed data 2 months after discharge were included. Most of them (66%) presented with critical limb ischemia. Hypertension (74%) was the most prevalent risk factor. The rates of one-year CV events and total mortality were 18% and 9.7%, respectively. There was no correlation between any risk factor control and improved outcomes. Rutherford grade > 4 ( P < 0.001), heart failure ( P = 0.01) and diabetes ( P = 0.028) were correlated with CV events. Age > 65 years ( P < 0.001), Rutherford grade > 4 ( P = 0.02), heart failure ( P < 0.001) and hypertension control ( P = 0.022) were correlated with mortality ( Table 1 ). One-year mortality is high in patients hospitalized for PAD. Control of major CV risk factors does not improve 1-year survival. Hypertension control was associated with poorer survival. The strictness of the target for each risk factor should be individualized in this high-risk population.

The Association of Weekly pre-Hemodialysis Systolic Blood Pressure and Following Week Mortality

Background/Aims: Few studies examine the impact of systolic blood pressure (SBP) on mortality in the incident hemodialysis (HD) period, and throughout the first HD year. This large retrospective observational study analyzes the impact of “current” and cumulative low preSBP <110 mmHg (L), and variations in preSBP on short-term (1 week) mortality over the first HD year. Methods: Weekly mean preSBP for HD weeks 1 to 51 was categorized into L or high preSBP>=110 mmHg (H) for each patient. A generalized linear model (GLM) was used to compute the probability of death in the following week. The model includes age, gender, race and three preSBP-related parameters: (a) percent of prior weeks with L preSBP; (b) percent of prior weeks with switching between L to H; (c) “current” week’s preSBP as a binary variable. Separate models were constructed that include demographics and BP-related parameters (a), (b), and (c) separately. Results: In a model combining (a), (b), and (c) above, “current” week L preSBP is associated with increased odds ratio for following week mortality throughout the first HD year. The percent of prior week’s L and more switching between L and H are less significantly associated with short-term mortality. In models including (a), (b), and (c) separately, “current” L preSBP is associated with higher mortality. Conclusion: This study confirms an association of L preSBP with increased short-term mortality which is maintained over the first HD year. Percent of L preSBP in prior weeks, switching between L and H, and “current” week L are all associated with short-term mortality risk, but “current” week L preSBP is most significant.

Red blood cell distribution width independently predicts 1-month mortality in acute decompensation of cirrhotic patients admitted to emergency department.

The aim of this study was to explore whether red blood cell distribution width (RDW) can help predict the risk of short-term mortality in patients with acute decompensation of cirrhosis. We carried out a retrospective analysis of all patients consecutively admitted to the emergency department (ED) of the University Hospital of Verona (Italy) for acute decompensation of liver cirrhosis, between 1 June 2013 and 31 December 2016. The RDW value was measured at ED admission, along with collection of clinical features and other laboratory data, and was then correlated with severity of disease (Chronic Liver Failure Consortium Acute Decompensation score; CLIF-C AD score) and 1-month mortality. The final study population consisted of 542 patients, 80 (14.8%) of whom died within 30 days after ED admission. The median RDW of patients who died was significantly higher than the median RDW of those who survived (17.4 vs. 15.5%; P<0.001). The percentage of patients who died significantly increased across different RDW quartiles (6.8, 9.7, 11.5 and 32.1%, P<0.001). In univariate analysis, significant correlation was observed between RDW and clinical severity of acute decompensate cirrhosis (Child-Pugh score: r=0.198, P<0.001; Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score: r=0.311, P=0.001; CLIF-C AD: 0.127, P=0.005). The combination of RDW and CLIF-C AD score exhibited better performance for predicting 1-month mortality than the CLIF-C AD score alone (area under the curve=0.769 vs. 0.720; P=0.006). In multivariate analysis, RDW was independently associated with a 1.2-2.3 higher risk of 1-month mortality. The assessment of RDW at ED admission may improve risk stratification of patients with acute decompensation of cirrhosis.

Predictive Value of Age-Bilirubin-International Normalized Ratio-Creatinine Score in Short-Term Survival of Acute-on-Chronic Hepatitis B Liver Failure

Background/Aims: The age-bilirubin-international normalized ratio-creatinine (ABIC) score, which is a predictive model commonly used for alcoholic hepatitis, has not yet been studied in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (HBV-ACLF). We aimed to investigate the predictive value of the ABIC score in patients with HBV-ACLF. Methods: This retrospective study involved 398 patients diagnosed with HBV-ACLF, who were divided into a training cohort of 305 patients and a validation cohort of 93 patients. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were used to determine risk factors for mortality. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated to estimate and compare the predictive values of different prognostic scores. Results: The ABIC score was significantly higher in the death group of the training cohort than in its survival group. Independent risk factors for mortality identified by multivariate Cox analysis included blood urea nitrogen, ABIC score, and Chronic Liver Failure Consortium Organ Failure (CLIF-C OF) score. For predicting 1- and 3-month mortality, AUC was higher for the ABIC score than for the Model for End-stage Liver Diseases (MELD) score (0.732 vs. 0.653, P < 0.05, 0.695 vs. 0.619, P < 0.05, respectively), CLIF-C OF score (0.693, P=0.353, 0.656, P=0.341, respectively), and Child-Pugh score (0.675, P=0.189, 0.656, P=0.300, Respectively). Patients with ABIC score > 9.44 had reduced 1- and 3-month survival rates. Conclusion: ABIC score is superior to MELD score in predicting short-term survival in HBV-ACLF patients. ABIC score > 9.44 predicts high short-term mortality risk in HBV-ACLF patients.

The demise of contrast nephropathy; can this be true? A contrarian view; a representative case report of contrast nephropathy from Mayo Clinic Health System in Northwestern Wisconsin

In the cognate nephrology literature, a few recent publications from major academic centers in the United States have suggested that the incidence of contrast nephropathy was exaggerated and overstated. These investigators have concluded that intravenous contrast material administration was not associated with an increased risk of acute kidney injury (AKI), emergent dialysis, and short-term mortality in a cohort of patients with diminished renal function. As a contrarian opinion, we first describe a clear cut case of contrast-nephropathy resulting in AKI requiring hemodialysis treatment managed in the Renal Unit of the Mayo Clinic Health System, Northwestern Wisconsin, in the Spring of 2017. We subsequently revisit the overwhelming evidence-base in the English literature that supports the enormous impact of contrast-nephropathy as a clinical syndrome. We finally posit that these recent repudiations of the existence and significance of contrast-nephropathy as a significant clinical entity represent an overreach in statistical expertise. There is no basis for a requiem song over contrast-nephropathy

Off-hours presentation is associated with short-term mortality but not with long-term mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction: A meta-analysis.

BackgroundThe association between off-hours presentation and mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) remains unclear. We performed a meta-analysis to assess the impact of off-hours presentation on short- and long-term mortality among STEMI patients.MethodsWe searched PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library from their inception to 10 July 2016. Studies were eligible if they evaluated the relationship of off-hours (weekend and/or night) presentation with short- and/or long-term mortality.ResultsA total of 30 studies with 33 cohorts involving 192,658 STEMI patients were included. Off-hours presentation was associated with short-term mortality (odds ratio [OR] 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02–1.12, P = 0.004) but not with long-term mortality (OR 1.00, 95% CI 0.94–1.07, P = 0.979). No significant heterogeneity was observed. The outcomes remained the same after sensitivity analyses and trim and fill analyses. Subgroup analyses showed that STEMI patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention do not have a higher risk of short-term mortality (OR 1.061, 95% CI 0.993–1.151). In addition, higher mortality was observed only during hospitalization (OR 1.072, 95% CI 1.022–1.125), not at the 30-day, 1-year or long-term follow-ups.ConclusionsOff-hours presentation was associated with an increase in short-term mortality, but not long-term mortality, among STEMI patients. Clinical approaches to decrease short-term mortality regardless of the time of presentation should be evaluated in future studies.

Spatiotemporal influence of temperature, air quality, and urban environment on cause-specific mortality during hazy days

Haze is an extreme weather event that can severely increase air pollution exposure, resulting in higher burdens on human health. Few studies have explored the health effects of haze, and none have investigated the spatiotemporal interaction between temperature, air quality and urban environment that may exacerbate the adverse health effects of haze.We investigated the spatiotemporal pattern of haze effects and explored the additional effects of temperature, air pollution and urban environment on the short-term mortality risk during hazy days. We applied a Poisson regression model to daily mortality data from 2007 through 2014, to analyze the short-term mortality risk during haze events in Hong Kong. We evaluated the adverse effect on five types of cause-specific mortality after four types of haze event. We also analyzed the additional effect contributed by the spatial variability of urban environment on each type of cause-specific mortality during a specific haze event. A regular hazy day (lag 0) has higher all-cause mortality risk than a day without haze (odds ratio: 1.029 [1.009, 1.049]). We have also observed high mortality risks associated with mental disorders and diseases of the nervous system during hazy days. In addition, extreme weather and air quality contributed to haze-related mortality, while cold weather and higher ground-level ozone had stronger influences on mortality risk. Areas with a high-density environment, lower vegetation, higher anthropogenic heat, and higher PM2.5 featured stronger effects of haze on mortality than the others. A combined influence of haze, extreme weather/air quality, and urban environment can result in extremely high mortality due to mental/behavioral disorders or diseases of the nervous system.In conclusion, we developed a data-driven technique to analyze the effects of haze on mortality. Our results target the specific dates and areas with higher mortality during haze events, which can be used for development of health warning protocols/systems.

Can information on functional and cognitive status improve short-term mortality risk prediction among community-dwelling older people? A cohort study using a UK primary care database.

BackgroundFunctional and cognitive domains have rarely been evaluated for their prognostic value in general practice databases. The aim of this study was to identify functional and cognitive domains in The Health Improvement Network (THIN) and to evaluate their additional value for the prediction of 1-month and 1-year mortality in elderly people.Materials and methodsA cohort study was conducted using a UK nationwide general practitioner database. A total of 1,193,268 patients aged 65 years or older, of whom 15,300 had dementia, were identified from 2000 to 2012. Information on mobility, dressing and accommodation was recorded frequently enough to be analyzed further in THIN. Cognition data could not be used due to very poor recording of data in THIN. One-year and 1-month mortality was predicted using logistic models containing variables such as age, sex, disease score and functionality status.ResultsA significant but moderate improvement in 1-year and 1-month mortality prediction in elderly people was observed by adding accommodation to the variables age, sex and disease score, as the c-statistic (95% confidence interval [CI]) increased from 0.71 (0.70–0.72) to 0.76 (0.75–0.77) and 0.73 (0.71–0.75) to 0.79 (0.77–0.80), respectively. A less notable improvement in the prediction of 1-year and 1-month mortality was observed in people with dementia.ConclusionFunctional domains moderately improved the accuracy of a model including age, sex and comorbidities in predicting 1-year and 1-month mortality risk among community-dwelling older people, but they were much less able to predict mortality in people with dementia. Cognition could not be explored as a predictor of mortality due to insufficient data being recorded.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of frailty as a predictor of morbidity and mortality after major abdominal surgery

BackgroundFrailty is associated with poor prognosis, but the multitude of definitions and scales of assessment makes the impact on outcomes difficult to assess. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of frailty on postoperative morbidity and mortality, and long‐term mortality after major abdominal surgery, and to evaluate the performance of different frailty metrics.MethodsAn extended literature search was performed to retrieve all original articles investigating whether frailty could affect outcomes after elective major abdominal surgery in adult populations. All possible definitions of frailty were considered. A random‐effects meta‐analysis was carried out for all outcomes of interest. For postoperative morbidity and mortality, overall effect sizes were estimated as odds ratios (OR), whereas the hazard ratio (HR) was calculated for long‐term mortality. The potential effect of the number of domains of the frailty indices was explored through meta‐regression at moderator analysis.ResultsA total of 35 studies with 1 153 684 patients were analysed. Frailty was associated with a significantly increased risk of postoperative major morbidity (OR 2·56, 95 per cent c.i. 2·08 to 3·16), short‐term mortality (OR 5·77, 4·41 to 7·55) and long‐term mortality (HR 2·71, 1·63 to 4·49). All domains were significantly associated with the occurrence of postoperative major morbidity, with ORs ranging from 1·09 (1·00 to 1·18) for co‐morbidity to 2·52 (1·32 to 4·80) for sarcopenia. No moderator effect was observed according to the number of frailty components.ConclusionRegardless of the definition and combination of domains, frailty was significantly associated with an increased risk of postoperative morbidity and mortality after major abdominal surgery.

Derivation and validation of a novel prediction model to identify low-risk patients with acute pulmonary embolism

Accurate identification of low-risk patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) who may be eligible for outpatient treatment or early discharge can have substantial cost-saving benefit. The purpose of this study was to derive and validate a prediction model to effectively identify patients with PE at low risk of short-term mortality, right ventricular dysfunction, and other nonfatal outcomes. This study analyzed data from 400 consecutive patients with acute PE. We derived and internally validated our prediction rule based on clinically significant variables that are routinely available at initial examination and that were categorized and weighted using coefficients in the multivariate logistic regression. The model was externally validated in an independent cohort of 82 patients. The final model (HOPPE score) consisted of 5 categorized patient variables (1, 2, or 3 points, respectively): systolic blood pressure (>120, 100 to 119, 80, 65 to 79, 101 beats/min), arterial partial pressure of oxygen (>80, 60 to 79, 4). The 30-day mortality rates were 0% in low risk (0 to 6 points), 7.5% to 8.5% in intermediate risk (7 to 10), and 18.2% to 18.8% in high-risk patients (≥11) across the derivation and validation cohorts. In comparison with the previously validated PESI score, the HOPPE score had a higher discriminatory power (area under the curve 0.74 vs 0.85, p = 0.033) and significantly improved both the discrimination (integrated discrimination improvement, p = 0.002) and reclassification (net reclassification improvement, p = 0.003) of the model for short-term mortality. In conclusion, the HOPPE score accurately identifies acute patients with PE at low risk of short-term mortality, right ventricular dysfunction, and other nonfatal outcomes. Prospective validation of the prediction model is necessary before implementation in clinical practice.

The Risk Predictive Values of ACG Classification in a Cohort of Colon Ischemia: Refining the Definition of Mild Disease

Introduction: Although most cases of colon ischemia (CI) are mild and self-limiting, when severe it implies high mortality rates. We aimed to evaluate the risk predictive value of the classification proposed by American College of Gastroenterology (ACG) guidelines (2015), created to provide a management algorithm. Methods: A retrospective multicenter study was conducted on adult patients with definite CI (clinical, endoscopic, pathologic and culture criteria), between 2013 and 2016. Data was collected on clinical presentation, including comorbidities, organ failure, management and outcome. Cases were evaluated according to ACG risk factors (RF) (gender, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, abdominal pain without rectal bleeding, BUN, Hb, LDH, serum sodium, WBC). Cases were classified as mild (0 RF), moderate (1-3 RF) and severe (>3 RF or any of the following: peritoneal signs, pneumatosis or portal venous gas, gangrene, pan-colonic or isolated right-colon ischemia). Results: 349 cases with the clinical diagnosis of IC were analyzed. 193 met inclusion criteria of definitive diagnosis (63% females; mean age 72 years (±13). ACG classification of mild, moderate and severe disease was attributed respectively to 21% of patients (0 intra-hospital deaths), 45% (2 deaths) and 34% (12 deaths). The number of ACG RF was: 40% with 0 RF, 8% with 1, 9% with 2, 15% with 3, 16% with 4, 8% with 15%, 4% with 6 and 1% with 7. No patient with 0 or 1 RF died. Only 1 patient with 2 RF died. The remaining 13 deaths were verified with at least 3 RF. The univariate analysis revealed a statistical correlation between RF and intra-hospital or 30-day mortality as well as the need for surgery (P<0.001, P<0.001, and P=0.006, respectively). ACG classification presented high predictive accuracy for in-hospital and 1-month mortality with an AUROC of 0.78 and 0.79 (P<0.001), respectively. For a cutoff of 2 ACG RF, the sensibility (SE) for death was 100%, specificity (SP) was 52%, with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 14% and negative predictive value (NPV) of 100%. For 3 ACG RF the results were: SE 93%, SP 61%, PPV 16% and NPV 99%. Three or more RF had an OR of 20.2 (95%CI: 2.59-158) for intra-hospital and 18.4 (95% CI: 2.34-144) for 1-month mortality. Conclusion: No patient in this cohort with less than 2 ACG RF died, suggesting that mild disease of ACG classification may include 0 and 1 RF without changing prognosis. Short-term mortality risk increases significantly in patients with at least 3 ACG RF.Figure: ROC curve comparing the sensitivity of prediction of mortality at 1 month using the ACG classification, ACG classification adjusting mild disease until 1 RF and the number of ACG RF.

Revision Total Knee Arthroplasty for Periprosthetic Joint Infection Is Associated With Increased Postoperative Morbidity and Mortality Relative to Noninfectious Revisions

BackgroundPeriprosthetic joint infection (PJI) after primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is a devastating complication. The short-term morbidity profile of revision TKA performed for PJI relative to non-PJI revisions is poorly characterized. The purpose of this study is to determine 30-day postoperative outcomes after revision TKA for PJI, relative to primary TKA and aseptic revision TKA. MethodsThe American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program from 2005 to 2015 was queried for primary and revision TKA cases. Revision TKA cases were categorized into PJI and non-PJI cohorts. Differences in 30-day outcomes including postoperative complications, readmissions, operative time, and length of stay were compared using bivariate and multivariate analyses. ResultsIn total, 175,761 TKAs were included in this study, with 162,981 (92.7%) primary TKAs and 12,780 (7.3%) revision TKAs, of which 2196 (17.2%) revisions were performed for PJI. When compared to aseptic revision TKA, multivariate analysis demonstrated that PJI revisions had a significantly higher risk of major early postoperative complications including death (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.25) and sepsis (OR 8.73). In addition, nonhome discharge (OR 1.75), readmissions (OR 1.67), and length of stay (+2.1 days) were all greater relative to non-PJI revisions. ConclusionUtilizing a large, prospectively collected, national database, we found that revision TKA for PJI has a greater risk of short-term morbidity and mortality and requires a higher utilization of healthcare resources. These results have implications for patient counseling and alternative payment models that may eventually include revision TKA.