Risk Of Reoffending Research Articles

Pathways between types of crime and criminal social identity: A network approach

Criminal social identity (CSI) is a factor for criminal behavior. CSI should therefore be a target of interventive strategies aiming to reduce the risk of re-offending. To date, there is limited knowledge on how CSI is expressed among individuals with different criminal histories, undermining the efforts to develop and target appropriate rehabilitative strategies. In the present investigation, network analysis was applied to model the pattern of relationships between different crime types and CSI. In total, eight networks were estimated among prisoners from the USA (n = 772), UK (n = 638), and Poland (n = 1591).Results show different pathways between CSI scores and crime types across samples. CSI formed positive links with acquisitive crime among U.S. and Polish male prisoners. Homicide formed negative associations with CSI among male prisoners from the USA and Poland as well as U.S. female prisoners. Crimes for which an individual is likely to face social stigmatization were positively associated with CSI in U.S. females and UK males. It is anticipated that from these results, we will be able to build a better understanding of the structural relationships between different types of criminal activity and CSI, subsequently leading to more effective rehabilitation strategies.

Neighborhood Risk Factors for Recidivism: For Whom Do They Matter?

Justice-involved people vary substantially in their risk of re-offending. To date, recidivism prediction and prevention efforts have largely focused on individual-level factors like antisocial traits. Although a growing body of research has examined the role of residential contexts in predicting re-offending, results have been equivocal. One reason for mixed results may be that an individual’s susceptibility to contextual influence depends upon his or her accumulated risk of re-offending. Based on a sample of 2,218 people on probation in San Francisco, California, this study draws on observational and secondary data to test the hypothesis that individual risk moderates the effect of neighborhood factors on recidivism. Results from survival analyses indicate that individual risk interacts with neighborhood concentrated disadvantage and disorder — these factors increase recidivism among people relatively low in individual risk, but not those at higher risk. This is consistent with the disadvantage saturation perspective, raising the possibility that some people classified as low risk might not recidivate but for placement in disadvantaged and disorderly neighborhoods. Ultimately, residential contexts “matter” for lower risk people and may be useful to consider in efforts to prevent recidivism.

Monitoring changes in risk of reoffending: A prospective study of 632 men on community supervision.

Few studies have examined how much individuals change on intermediate targets of risk to reoffend. Even fewer studies have examined the extent to which change on such measures predict reoffending. Establishing the validity of intermediate measures requires a multistep approach that (a) assesses the reliability of the change, (b) assesses change using statistical analyses that can account for measurement error, and (c) examines the extent to which change on these intermediate measures predict reoffending. The current study examined the validity of an intermediate measure of risk to reoffend scored by community supervision officers (i.e., ACUTE-2007) in a large sample of men convicted of sexually motivated offenses (N = 632). We found that risk to reoffend changes across time, the pattern of change varies across individuals, risk levels can predict different patterns of change, and that the best predictors of recidivism are the latest score or a rolling average of scores. Community supervision can use recent information concerning the community adjustment of their clients to predict recidivism. Best practice includes updating assessments and adjusting supervision practices based on their clients' most recent assessment, or the average of previous assessments. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Neighborhood Risk Factors for Recidivism: For Whom do they Matter?

Justice-involved people vary substantially in their risk of reoffending. To date, recidivism prediction and prevention efforts have largely focused on individual-level factors like antisocial traits. Although a growing body of research has examined the role of residential contexts in predicting reoffending, results have been equivocal. One reason for mixed results may be that an individual's susceptibility to contextual influence depends upon his or her accumulated risk of reoffending. Based on a sample of 2218 people on probation in San Francisco, California, this study draws on observational and secondary data to test the hypothesis that individual risk moderates the effect of neighborhood factors on recidivism. Results from survival analyses indicate that individual risk interacts with neighborhood concentrated disadvantage and disorder-and these factors increase recidivism among people relatively low in individual risk, but not those at higher risk. This is consistent with the disadvantage saturation perspective, raising the possibility that some people classified as low risk might not recidivate but for placement in disadvantaged and disorderly neighborhoods. Ultimately, residential contexts "matter" for lower risk people and may be useful to consider in efforts to prevent recidivism.

Men with Sexual Convictions and Denial.

We review the evidence base for men who categorically deny responsibility for their sexual crimes. Specifically, we consider the characteristics of these individuals and the purpose or function of the denial, whether denial leads to an increased risk of reoffending and the evidence for different treatment options available for deniers. Whilst there is some evidence that deniers differ from admitters, it appears that categorical denial is a strategy used to reduce negative consequences such as a sense of shame or the fear of losing family support. The common assumption that deniers are more likely to commit further sexual crimes is not supported by the evidence to date. There remains a lack of evidence as to the best treatment approach to use. We conclude that more research is necessary. We suggest that a lack of consideration of the function of denial or the adaptive benefits of denial could explain inconsistent findings in relation to the characteristics of deniers and why denial does not appear related to recidivism. Whilst the available evidence does not support most approaches aimed at overcoming denial, we suggest that some of the most promising approaches seem to be non-disclosure-based focusing on reducing stigma; however, it is conceded that the evidence for such approaches is still emerging.

Association Between Early Contact With Mental Health Services After an Offense and Reoffending in Individuals Diagnosed With Psychosis

Psychosis is a known risk factor for offending behavior, but little is known about the association between clinical contact with mental health services after an offense and reoffending. To examine the association between early contact with mental health services and reoffending after an index offense in individuals with psychosis. In this cohort study, individuals diagnosed with psychosis before their index offense from July 1, 2001, to December 31, 2012, and who received a noncustodial sentence were identified by linking health and offending databases in New South Wales, Australia. The incidence of and risk factors for reoffending and time to reoffending within 2 years from the index offense were examined using Cox proportional hazards regression and Kaplan-Meier survival estimates. Specifically, the association between contact with mental health services within 30 days after an offense and reoffending was examined. Data were analyzed from July 1, 2019, to March 5, 2020. Hospital admission, emergency department presentation, and contact with community mental health services associated with psychosis. Reoffending within 2 years of the index offense was compared in individuals with and without clinical contact with mental health services within 30 days after an offense, with adjustment for potential confounders. Of the 7030 offenders with psychosis (4933 male [70.2%]; median age at the index offense, 34 [interquartile range, 26-42] years), 2605 (37.1%) had clinical contact with mental health services within 30 days after the index offense. The risk of reoffending was significantly lower in those with vs without clinical contact (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 0.83; 95% CI, 0.76-0.91). The risk of reoffending was 30% less in male offenders with 5 or more clinical contacts compared with male offenders with no clinical contact (AHR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.59-0.84). Reoffending in both male and female offenders was associated with younger age (eg, AHR for male offenders aged <18 years, 3.31 [95% CI, 2.39-4.59]; AHR for female offenders aged <18 years, 2.60 [95% CI, 1.69-3.99]) and offending history (eg, AHR for male offenders with ≥4 prior offenses, 2.28 [95% CI, 1.98-2.64]; AHR for female offenders with ≥4 prior offenses, 2.22 [95% CI, 1.67-2.96]). In this cohort, early and frequent clinical contact with mental health services after an offense in individuals with psychosis was associated with reduced risk of reoffending in this group. More support may be needed for early treatment of those with serious mental illness who are at risk of reoffending.

“They’re the hardest group to treat, that changes the least”. Adapted sex offender treatment programmes for individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorders: Clinician views and experiences

AimsClinicians working with individuals with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) who display sexual offending behaviours may face challenges during treatment, as a result of the cognitive and behavioural profile associated with ASD. This research explored the views and experiences of those running adapted sex offender treatment groups with men with ASD. MethodSemi-structured interviews with group facilitators (n = 12) focused on service user engagement and response to the core components of the treatment programme (e.g. increasing victim empathy, addressing cognitive distortions, etc.), and gathered the experiences of those working with men with ASD who display sexual offending behaviours. ResultsGrounded Theory was used to develop a model conceptualising the potential impact of ASD on treatment outcomes, and this emerged predominantly through clinician’s views of risk of re-offending. Benefits of attending a group included: the presence of other group members, a forum to develop pro-social roles and relationships, and increased opportunity for monitoring. Challenges regarding empathy, specifically emotional empathy, and shifts in cognitive distortions were felt particularly pertinent to those with ASD, as well as questions over internalisation of therapy. ConclusionDespite identification of a number of challenges, adapted sex offender treatment programmes were considered beneficial for men with ASD, especially in light of a dearth of evidenced-based alternatives.

Denial in Sex Offending Treatment: Examining Criminal Career Diversity

ABSTRACT Sex offenders commonly exhibit some degree of denial of their offending. Past research has shown that denial conflicts with treatment completion, but does not necessarily increase sexual reoffending risk. This study explores whether the impact of denial upon the treatment of sex offenders is unequivocal or influenced by other factors, such as criminal career variables and dynamic risk. Thirty-five convicted male sex offenders in Italy were assessed for criminal career characteristics (e.g., heterogeneous versus specialized offending), for the nature of denial, and for dynamic risk factors. Interventions for sex offenders may be more effective if they are designed to differentiate between heterogeneous offenders who are difficult to engage in treatment, and specialized sex offenders who are more likely to engage in and complete treatment, regardless of their level of denial. Heterogeneous and specialized sex offenders pose different risks and these differences need to be taken into account in treatment.

Pathways through burglary: A model of burglary and desistance for female offenders

In order for Her Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) to effectively help women who commit burglary offences to reduce their risk of reoffending and lead fulfilling offence-free lives, we need to understand why they commit these types of crimes and what helps them to successfully desist. There is limited existing research on women who commit burglary. This study aimed to address this, and in doing so makes recommendations for working effectively with this group of women in our care. The study involved in-depth inter-views with ten adult women serving custodial sentences for burglary. The grounded theory analysis generated a theoretical model that explains the pathways into burglary, factors which maintain their offending and potential desistance pathways.

Examining What Works for Youth With Moderate Risk Involved With the Juvenile Justice System: Comparing the Effect of the Community Connections Program and a Vocational Support Program Over a 9-Year Time Period

Using administrative data from an urban juvenile probation department between January 2007 and August 2016, the study included youth who were placed on court-ordered postadjudication community supervision and who were deemed to have a moderate risk of reoffending by the department’s risk and needs assessment. The two programs evaluated include a vocational support program (VSP) and the Community Connections program (CC). Youth across both groups were matched using propensity score matching, creating a final sample of 301 individual youth per program. When examining the program effect of CC versus VSP across six time-to-event variables (i.e., time to second program, detention, out-of-home placement, another offense, violation of court order, and days in program), the findings were mixed. However, across both programs, analyses revealed youth with a successful discharge and longer time spent in their program had better outcomes.

Disengagement from mental health treatment and re-offending in those with psychosis: a multi-state model of linked data.

Individuals with psychosis are over-represented in the criminal justice system and, as a group, are at elevated risk of re-offending. Recent studies have observed an association between increased contacts with mental health services and reduced re-offending, as well as reduced risk of re-offending in those who are ordered to mental health treatment rather than punitive sanctions. In furthering this work, this study examines the effect of disengagement from mental health treatment on probability of re-offence in offenders with psychosis over time. Data linkage was conducted with judicial, health and mortality datasets from New South Wales, Australia (2001-2015). The study population included 4960 offenders with psychosis who received non-custodial sentences and engaged with community-based mental health treatment. Risk factors for leaving treatment and/or reconviction were examined using multivariate cox regression. Further, a multi-state model was used to observe the probabilities associated with individuals moving between three states: conviction, disengagement from mental health treatment and subsequent re-conviction. A threefold increase was observed in the risk of re-offending for those who disengaged from treatment compared to those who did not (aHR = 2.76, 95% CI 1.65-4.62, p < 0.001). The median time until re-offence was 195days, with the majority (67%) being convicted within one year of leaving treatment. A higher risk of leaving treatment was found for those born outside of Australia, with substance-related psychosis, and a history of violent offence. The findings argue for an emphasis on continued engagement with mental health services following release for offenders with psychosis and identify subgroups within this population for whom concentrated efforts regarding treatment retention should be targeted.

Supplemental Material for Monitoring Changes in Risk of Reoffending: A Prospective Study of 632 Men on Community Supervision

Supplemental Material for Monitoring Changes in Risk of Reoffending: A Prospective Study of 632 Men on Community Supervision

Algorithmic Risk Assessment in the Hands of Humans

We evaluate the impacts of adopting algorithmic predictions of future offending (risk assessments) as an aid to judicial discretion in felony sentencing. We find that judges' decisions are influenced by the risk score, leading to longer sentences for defendants with higher scores and shorter sentences for those with lower scores. However, we find no robust evidence that this reshuffling led to a decline in recidivism, and, over time, judges appeared to use the risk scores less. Risk assessment's failure to reduce recidivism is at least partially explained by judicial discretion in its use. Judges systematically grant leniency to young defendants, despite their high risk of reoffending. This is in line with a long standing practice of treating youth as a mitigator in sentencing, due to lower perceived culpability. Such a conflict in goals may have led prior studies to overestimate the extent to which judges make prediction errors. Since one of the most important inputs to the risk score is effectively off-limits, risk assessment's expected benefits are curtailed. We find no evidence that risk assessment affected racial disparities statewide, although there was a relative increase in sentences for black defendants in courts that appeared to use risk assessment most. We conduct simulations to evaluate how race and age disparities would have changed if judges had fully complied with the sentencing recommendations associated with the algorithm. Racial disparities might have increased slightly, but the largest change would have been higher relative incarceration rates for defendants under the age of 23. In the context of contentious public discussions about algorithms, our results highlight the importance of thinking about how man and machine interact.

Examining What Works for High Risk Youth Involved in the Juvenile Justice System: Comparing the Effect of the Community Connections (CC) Program to Intensive Supervision Probation (ISP) Over A Nine-Year Time Period

Using administrative data collected by an urban juvenile probation department between January 2007 and August 2016, this study compared the impact of the Community Connections (CC) program to a matched sample of youth who received intensive supervision probation (ISP) on six time-to-event variables (i.e., time to second program, detention, out-of-home placement, another offense, violation of court order, and days in program). The study included youth who were assigned to court-ordered post-adjudication community supervision and who were deemed to have a high risk of re-offending by the department’s risk and needs assessment. CC and ISP youth were matched using propensity score matching that created a final sample of 381 youth in each program. When examining the program effect of CC vs. ISP on the time-to-event variables the findings were mixed. However, across both programs, the analysis revealed that youth who remained in the programs longer and youth with a successful program discharge generally experienced better long-term outcomes than their peers.

Аспекти реалізації пробаційних програм у межах здійснення наглядової пробації

The purpose of the article is to analyze the features and mechanism of implementation of measures provided by probation programs and to identify areas for improvement of domestic legislation governing this institution in Ukraine. To achieve this goal, the following tasks were performed in the article: problematic issues of implementation of supervisory probation measures were considered; the procedure for carrying out probation measures in respect of a limited category of persons who have been sentenced to certain types of punishment determined by criminal law; Relevant proposals and recommendations for improving the use of probation programs in Ukraine were provided. Methodology. The research used a dialectical method of scientific knowledge of socio-legal phenomena in their contradictions, development and changes, which allows to objectively assess the level of implementation of probation programs within the supervision of probation, the effectiveness of national legislation in the prevention of criminal offenses and issues during the implementation of supervisory probation, Formal-logical method, which identified elements of the legal mechanism for the prevention of criminal offenses by probation authorities. The comparative legal method was used in the analysis of current legislation and international regulations; statistical &ndash; in the analysis of empirical data and in the process of studying statistical material; formal logic (analysis and synthesis, hypothesis) &ndash; in determining the main directions of scientific work and the main problems. The theoretical basis of this publication were the works of domestic and foreign scientists on aspects of prevention of criminal offenses by probation authorities. The scientific novelty of the publication is the need for a thorough analysis of certain aspects of probation programs in the framework of supervisory probation in accordance with current national legislation in the field of prevention of criminal offenses by probation authorities, as well as proposals and recommendations for reviewing individual probation programs. Conclusions. Based on the results of the study, the need to improve existing probation programs, in particular in terms of developing methods for their implementation, is substantiated. In addition, the importance of approving recommendations for assessing the risks of reoffending by minors, establishing clear criteria and requirements for persons who can implement probation programs and be involved as curators, as well as creating separate probation programs for parolees

Global Positioning System Monitoring of High-Risk Sex Offenders: Implementation Challenges and Lessons Learned

Agencies incorporating new technology inevitably face challenges in the implementation process. In response to the passage of Proposition 83, which mandated lifelong supervision of people convicted of sex offenses in California, San Diego County initiated a pilot program assessing Global Positioning System (GPS) monitoring of such offenders considered high risk for reoffending. Using interviews of parole agents and administrators, parole agent records of supervision, and GPS monitoring data, we assess the challenges and lessons learned from the program which help inform the current policy context of electronic monitoring. Results show that rigorous GPS supervision involves substantial workload and resource increases for parole agencies, and may not be appropriate for all individuals convicted of sex offenses. The ethical and legal challenges of electronic monitoring, more generally, require further attention. The future of GPS monitoring will depend on how programs are implemented and resources are managed, as well as how ethical issues are addressed.

Open justice, the media and reporting on preventive supervision and detention orders imposed on serious sex offenders in Victoria

This article is concerned with the extent to which the media should be able to report judicial proceedings in which Victorian courts are asked to make supervision or detention orders in respect of sex offenders who have completed their custodial sentence, but who are regarded as posing an unacceptable risk of re-offending. After describing the nature and purpose of the supervision and detention regimes, the article critically examines the reporting provisions that were contained in the Serious Sex Offenders Monitoring Act 2005 (Vic), which fi rst introduced the notion of preventive supervision in Victoria, and compares them with the reporting provisions that are contained in the recently enacted Serious Sex Offenders (Detention and Supervision) Act 2009 (Vic). Particular regard is paid to the principle of open justice, which ordinarily entitles the media to publish information about judicial proceedings, including names. The article also identifies several procedural hurdles which confront media organisations that wish to challenge suppression orders made under the scheme. Finally, the article makes some tentative observations about whether these publication regimes are compatible with Victoria's Charter of Human Rights and Responsibilities.

Integrating ex-offenders into the Australian construction industry

Contributing to the development of employment requirements as an emerging theme in social procurement theory and addressing the evidence vacuum in social procurement research and policy relating to the employment of ex-offenders, the results of a survey of 94 sub-contractors in the Australian construction industry are reported. Results indicate a relatively positive attitudes towards the employment of ex-offenders compared to other industries but also numerous barriers to sustainable employment identified. These include: perceived risks of re-offending; general behavioural problems; and lack of appropriate job skills. Considerable variations exist in perceptions of risk and practices in employing ex-offenders between trades, firm size and past experiences of hiring ex-offenders. It is concluded that policy makers cannot treat the construction industry or ex-offenders as a homogeneous whole and that negative stigmas need to be challenged through supply chain education and capacity-building programmes which provide knowledge, resources and wrap-around support services to enable the successful integration into the construction industry. Theoretically, the results spotlight the potential value of feminist theory in exploring how perceptions of ex-offenders might vary across different disadvantaged groups targeted by social procurement policies. Theories of cross sector collaboration could also be usefully mobilised to explore how new shared practices can be developed between the many organisations involved in reintegrating ex-offenders into employment.

Long-Term Drug Misuse Increases the Risk of Cognitive Dysfunctions in Intimate Partner Violence Perpetrators: Key Intervention Targets for Reducing Dropout and Reoffending.

Intimate partner violence against women (IPVAW) is a major public health problem, with an important mortality rate in women across the world. In this regard, it has been well-established that drug misuse explains (at least in part) an increased risk of IPVAW perpetration. Even though alcohol is the most widely studied drug underlying IPVAW, other drugs, such as cannabis and cocaine also seem to be significant indicators of this type of violence. Nonetheless, little is known about mediators, such as cognitive domains that facilitate proneness to violence after drug consumption. Therefore, the primary objective of the present study was to compare drug misuse patterns and cognitive performance in a carefully selected sample of IPVAW perpetrators (n = 63) and a group of non-violent men (control group; n = 39). Second, we also aimed to study the association between different patterns of drug misuse and cognitive performance and several facets of IPVAW perpetration (i.e., severity of injuries and type of aggression). Our results revealed that IPVAW perpetrators showed considerably higher levels of sustained drug misuse (alcohol, cannabis, cocaine, and heroin) for years and worse cognitive performance than controls. Moreover, the highest drug misuse sustained over time was related to the worst cognitive performance and the highest IPVAW severity. Finally, alcohol and cocaine seemed to be related to IPVAW and risk of reoffending. Whereas, cannabis, heroin, and MDMA were related to the existence of a previous criminal record (delinquency without violence). Hence, research in this field would help to develop coadjutant treatments and intervention packages to reduce drug misuse in the initial stages, which in turn would reduce cognitive impairments in IPVAW perpetrators. These expected improvements might produce an increase in treatment adherence and a decrease in the risk of future IPVAW reoffending.

The Importance of Considering Alexithymia during Initial Stages of Intimate Partner Violence Interventions to Design Adjuvant Treatments.

Empirical evidence supports that individuals with alexithymia might be prone to certain types of violence, such as intimate partner violence against women (IPVAW). Moreover, considering that alexithymia is directly involved in behavior regulation, problems due to identifying and regulating emotional states might be postulated as responsible, at least in part, for the success of psychotherapeutic treatments designed for decreasing the future risk of reoffending. Therefore, we assessed whether alexithymia was a good predictor of the discontinuation of treatment (dropout) and the risk of recidivism during the initial stages of intervention in a sample of men convicted of IPVAW perpetration (n = 118), while controlling for potential confounding variables (i.e., socio-demographic characteristics, impulsivity, and drug misuse). Our data demonstrate that high alexithymic traits lead to dropout and a high risk of recidivism during the initial stages of treatment, remaining significant even after including potential confounding variables. Even though impulsivity and drug misuse increase the amount of explained variance, none of them moderates the association of alexithymia with dropout and/or reoffending. It should be noted that this study identified alexithymia as a direct modulator of violence due to its effects on discontinuing IPVAW treatment during initial stages. Therefore, as we gain knowledge analyzing the relationships between previously mentioned factors, it could be applied to develop valid screening methods along with strengthening current rehabilitation programs and designing adjuvant treatments to increase their effectiveness.