Risk Of Recidivism Research Articles

The Concurrent and Predictive Validity of a Needs and Responsivity Assessment System

ABSTRACT Using a sample of nearly 2,100 people incarcerated in Minnesota’s prison system, this study examined the concurrent and predictive validity of a needs and responsivity assessment system. For concurrent validity, we evaluated the relationship between the 13 needs and responsivity domains with assessed recidivism risk levels. For predictive validity, we analyzed the association between the domains and recidivism for a sub-sample that had been released from prison prior to 2023. The hypothesized needs domains – anti-social thinking, anti-social peers, education, employment, substance use disorder, housing/homelessness, and family/domestic – were significantly associated with assessed and observed recidivism, while most of the hypothesized responsivity domains – mental health, religiosity, motivation and learning style – were not. The results suggest self-identity is a distinct criminogenic need. Gender and racial/ethnic differences for concurrent and predictive validity were relatively minimal across the 13 domains.

Psychopathic Traits Partly Explained the Reduced Vagal Tone of Batterers Coping with Acute Stress

ABSTRACT The importance of psychopathy for perpetration and maintenance of intimate partner violence (IPV) has been speculated. However, less is known about whether psychopathy would explain a psychophysiological response (cardiorespiratory and electrodermal) of IPV perpetrators dealing with acute stressors. Therefore, we first aimed to assess whether IPV perpetrators (n = 58) showed differences in psychopathic traits and their psychophysiological response to acute stress compared to nonviolent men (n = 53). Second, we examined in both groups whether psychopathic traits would explain a psychophysiological response when dealing with acute laboratory stress. Our results revealed that IPV perpetrators differed from controls in all the psychopathic traits, scoring higher on all psychopathy scales. Moreover, IPV perpetrators showed lower total respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) levels than controls. Finally, regarding high total psychopathy scores, factor 1 and affective facet entailed low RSA levels in both groups and scoring high in lifestyle facet of factor 2 explained reduced heart rate (HR) changes in response to acute stress in both groups. All these results highlighted that a reduced vagal tone could be characteristic of psychopathic traits, especially for the affective facet of psychopathy. Therefore, it would be important to incorporate biological markers in combination with psychological measurements to clearly diagnose IPV perpetrators before starting intervention programs. This would increase our ability to improve IPV intervention therapeutic targets and reduce risk of recidivism.

Rare, but potentially risky, high individual increase of self-reported sexual arousal in men, who have committed sexual offenses against children, while being confronted with experimental sexual stimuli — a retrospective data analysis

AbstractThis data analysis was initiated to further understand the infrequent yet intense instances of sexual arousal and signs of decompensation that emerge after exposing men who have committed sexual offenses against children to experimental sexual stimuli. We analyzed retrospectively and exploratory data of a self-developed sexual arousal questionnaire (“Current-State-of-Emotions-Questionnaire”, CSEQ) with the following objectives: (i) examine subjective sexual arousal changes elicited during confrontation with experimental sexual stimuli, (ii) analyze these sexual arousal changes at an individual level to detect large responses, and (iii) ask for associations between large responses in sexual arousal and individual characteristics of participants, e.g., demographic, clinical, and criminological parameters. The sample consisted of 241 adult, male Germans, comprising four groups: Ten individuals who have committed sexual offenses against children and have been placed in forensic psychiatric facilities (ISOCFP), 31 non-hospitalized individuals with sexual interest in children (ISIC), eight individuals who have committed other offenses and have been placed in forensic psychiatric facilities (IOFP), and 192 individuals without sexual interest in children and offense histories (IWO). We found a significant increase in subjective sexual arousal after confrontation with sexual stimuli (three experiments: initial orientation: Z = −4.819, p < .001, sexual distractor task: Z = −2.954, p = .003, stimulus rating: Z = −6.899, p < .001). Up to 14.3% of participants indicated high sexual arousal values before, but mainly after the experiments, with 20.0% of ISOCFP, 12.9% of ISIC, 12.5% of IOFP, and 14.6% of IWO. ISOCFP and ISIC with high sexual arousal were more likely to be diagnosed with paraphilia (pedophilia) and/or affective disorders, and to receive anti-depressive treatment. We assume a higher emotional lability or/and reduced emotion regulation abilities in those individuals. A careful weighing up of anticipated scientific knowledge gain and a potentially, though rare, increased risk of recidivism or decompensation seems indispensable.

Developmental Outcomes among Children within the Context of Maternal Incarceration: Findings from a Study of Family Inequality

This research addresses behavior difficulties and maladaptive coping among African American children and adolescents, and the manner in which these outcomes differ among those with incarcerated mothers. The study also provides an in-depth analysis of the experiences of mothers during and after their incarceration. Earlier investigations suggested that mothers’ victimization and offending, including drug use, are related to children’s emotional and behavioral outcomes. Hence, this research extends an ongoing project by investigating the nature of this relationship using aggregate data on adolescent health outcomes. Generally, most research addresses parental incarceration, typically followed by negative responses of male youth. Less research has evaluated the outcomes of parents’ incarceration on African American children and adolescents specifically. This is particularly true among those with incarcerated mothers. Additionally, examinations have highlighted the role of fathers’ incarceration on negative family functioning, yet we know less about the impact of mothers’ imprisonment and re-entry on children’s behavior. Many of these mothers are single and live in poverty, and their economic situations lead to higher risks of recidivism, deleteriously affecting their children. Moreover, several of them are raising children while experiencing traumatic mental health concerns amid drug usage with minimal support or treatment. For the current project, special attention is also placed on the mothers’ experiences with contact with children, prior history of substance abuse, mental illness, treatment for drug and alcohol problems, and coping with separation from children in an attempt to reveal the subsequent, harmful impact on children’s behavioral adjustment.

Predicting Recidivism With Machine Learning: An Analysis of Risk Factors and Proposal of Preventions

Despite efforts to support the re-entry of prisoners into society, a significant proportion of released offenders eventually return to crime. To identify areas for improvement within correctional facilities, researchers are directing their focus towards recidivism, the tendency of an offender to recommit a crime. Although past studies have identified factors that are correlated to recidivism, there is still uncertainty about the most significant combinations of factors that drive it. Due to the complexity of this issue, the goal of our project is to create a machine-learning model to predict whether an individual will relapse into crime. Such a model will help experts study the effectiveness of specific forms of punishment and develop personalized correctional programs to target individuals based on their recidivism risk factors. We applied the Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosted Decision Tree algorithms to classify a prisoner as likely to recidivate or not, tuning the hyperparameters to optimize accuracy. To evaluate our hypotheses, we analyzed the top nodes of our trees and confirmed several of our initial predictions. Furthermore, we found that an individual’s relative placement in their community, such as the percentage of individuals in their community with lower or equal education levels, was a significant predictor of recidivism. The results of this research may help law enforcement officers make more informed decisions about how to allocate their resources based on predictions of recidivism.

Latent Profile Analysis Predicting Recidivism Among Women Who Have Sexually Offended.

The few existing typology studies on women who have sexually offended (WWSO) have largely been limited by small sample sizes, have not included scale scores from risk assessments, or used recidivism within their typology (instead of using typologies to predict recidivism). In our sample of 241 WWSO, we conducted a latent profile analysis and observed four, distinct profiles: "low-risk WWSO," characterized by fewer criminal history incidents and lower risk-assessment scores; "problem-endorsing WWSO," with higher probability of endorsing various life problems such as educational/employment and emotional/personal issues; "antisocial WWSO" with more criminal history incidents, alcohol/drug problems, and higher scores on psychopathy; and "combined WWSO" with characteristics of both the problem-endorsing and antisocial profiles. This last profile showed elevations in general and/or violent recidivism risk, but relatively low recidivism. There were no cases of sexual recidivism in our sample following an average 30-month follow-up period. Membership in the antisocial profile predicted general and/or violent recidivism and suggests that WWSO typologies may be useful in predicting non-sexual recidivism for this population.

Individuals under voluntary treatment with sexual interest in minors: what risk do they pose?

Child Sexual Abuse (CSA) and the production, use, and distribution of Child Sexual Abuse Material (CSAM) are key threats to children's mental health. From the perspective of indicated prevention, it can be assumed that some persons with a sexual interest in children commit such unreported crimes. Accordingly, the German Network kein Täter werden (meaning do not offend) has implemented a confidential treatment service for persons with a sexual interest in minors who voluntarily seek therapy, might or might not have offended but have not yet been detected or have fulfilled all legal requirements (here referred to as non-forensic individuals). However, this offer has been questioned for investing resources in a group which critics consider as low risk. The following study addresses the question of recidivism risks for CSA or viewing CSAM among non-forensic individuals. We found significantly higher rates of CSA/CSAM in our participants' history compared to a German study on a representative sample of males. Regarding CSAM, the recidivism rate of 39% was found to be 11 times higher than the expected recidivism rate based on previous publications. Regarding CSA, the recidivism rate of 14% was not significantly different from the expected rate reported for subjects with a conviction for a sexual contact offense. Among various risk instruments, only the CPORT with CASIC rating was able to predict CSA (AUC = 0.69, 95% CI = 0.55, 0.82) and CSAM (AUC = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.53, 0.73) among individuals with a history of CSAM, but with poor discrimination. We conclude that a large proportion of our sample poses a substantial risk and therefore treatment resources are well invested. However, further studies are needed to improve risk assessment among non-forensic clients.

Big Data, Behavioral Genetics and Risk of Future Offending

A convergence of trends in assessing the future risk of reoffending could result in morally questionable inputs into the criminal process. Advances in the analysis of DNA and increases in the availability of information about people gleaned from social media might allow for new inferences to be drawn against offenders during the sentencing process. We explore how developments in forensic DNA analysis methods and law enforcement DNA databases in conjunction with information about an offender’s developmental environment could lead the prosecution to postulate a high risk of recidivism and thus argue for a longer sentence. We then consider some reasons why such a prosecution strategy might be troubling. In doing so, we focus on issues related to the inferential process, discrimination, privacy and constitutive luck.

When Prison Becomes the Devil’s Workshop: The Association Between Idleness and Post-Release Employment, Recidivism, and Mortality

The existing literature has yet to examine the system-wide effects of idleness and participation in prison-based work and programing on multiple post-release outcomes. Using a sample of more than 77,000 releases from Minnesota prisons between 2010 and 2021, we examined the relationship between participation in prison labor and programing on post-release employment, recidivism, and mortality. The findings suggest that how people spend their time in prison significantly affects their chances of finding a job, their likelihood of recidivism, and how long they live following release from prison. As involvement in work and/or programing increased, the people released from prison were more likely to find employment while also having a reduced risk for recidivism and mortality.

Evaluation of a Court-Ordered Violence Prevention Program for Gun-involved Youths

As youth gun violence continues to plague marginalized US communities, knowledge about “what works” to prevent injury and illegal gun activity within this population remains a contentious and pressing issue. This study investigates the impacts of Project Life—an education-based youth gun violence prevention program—on recidivism outcomes for a sample of 368 youths in Indianapolis, Indiana, between 2015 and 2019. We conducted retrospective outcome analyses to compare youths who completed the program (83%) to youths who did not complete the program. We find that youths who completed the program were significantly less likely to recidivate with a gun violence offense within an average follow-up period of 1.5 years following enrollment in the program. Youths who spent more time incarcerated and had a parent who was incarcerated were at higher recidivism risk when controlling for prior history of offending and other key risk factors. These nonexperimental findings show short-term promise for education-based violence prevention programming for youths at risk with fewer concerns of widening the net of carceral punishment.

Evaluation of an enhanced behavioural monitoring system in UK open prisons

Behavioural monitoring has efficacy in predicting recidivism. As an intervention however, the proven effectiveness is limited. This study is an evaluation of the Enhanced Behaviour Monitoring scheme operating across open prisons in England and Wales, to reduce instances of failure (e.g. abscond, re-offending). Utilising a matched sample design, logistic regression analyses showed Enhanced Behaviour Monitoring had null effects on serious recidivistic outcomes (e.g. abscond, reoffending). Those allocated to Enhanced Behaviour Monitoring were more likely to get recalled before completing the intervention. In essence, Enhanced Behaviour Monitoring was utilised primarily as a surveillance programme – to defend against risk exposure – resulting in recalls to closed prisons misaligned to the community recidivism risk; undermining the open prison concept. We discuss the findings in the context of the adverse effects of ‘surveillance only’ community supervision programmes. We argue for developing the rehabilitative potential within Enhanced Behaviour Monitoring and mitigating against excessive risk exposure through systems level policy change.

Exploring Cognitive Functioning among Forensic Mental Health Inpatients

A large proportion of forensic mental health (FMH) inpatients experience cognitive impairments, which may impact the extent to which they benefit from interventions aimed at reducing their risk of recidivism. These impairments should be identified and responded to as quickly and accurately as possible. The current study explored when and how FMH inpatients’ cognition is assessed during their stay at a forensic hospital, with a cognitive profile being constructed of the sample. The medical files of inpatients who resided at the hospital in Melbourne (Australia) during January 2016 and December 2019 were reviewed retrospectively. A total of 99 medical files were identified. The type, timing and results of each cognitive assessment were collected. Frequency analysis revealed more than half of the sample received a cognitive assessment, with most of the cognitive assessments being conducted within the first year of an inpatient’s admission to hospital. Between 19% and 31% of inpatients with available cognitive data demonstrated a global cognitive impairment, depending on the cognitive measure being used. These results highlight the value of assessing FMH inpatients for cognitive impairments to respond to them appropriately to increase their chances of rehabilitation. Careful consideration should be given to the type of cognitive assessment tool used among this demographic.

Trauma recidivism is reduced with engagement in psychosocial programming following orthopaedic trauma

IntroductionRecidivism is common following injury. Interventions to enhance patient engagement may reduce trauma recidivism. Education, counseling, peer mentorship, and other resources are known as Trauma Recovery Services (TRS). The authors hypothesized that TRS use would reduce trauma recidivism. MethodsOver five years at a level 1 trauma center, 954 adults treated operatively for pelvic, spine, and femoral fractures were reviewed. Recidivism was defined as return to trauma center for new injury within 30-months. All patients were offered TRS. Multivariate logistic regression statistical analysis was used to identify predictors of recidivism. ResultsThree hundred and ninety-seven of all patients (42 %) utilized TRS, including educational materials (n = 293), peer visits (n = 360), coaching (n = 284), posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) screening (n = 74), and other services. Within the entire sample, 136 patients (14 %) returned to the emergency department for an unrelated trauma event after mean 21 months. 13 % of TRS users became recidivists. Overall, 49 % of recidivists had history of pre-existing mental illness. High rates of TRS engagement between recidivists and non-recidivists were seen (75 %); however, non-recidivists were more likely to use multiple types of recovery services (49 % vs 34 %, p = 0.002), and were more likely to engage with trauma peer mentors (former trauma survivors) more than once (91 % vs 81 %, p = 0.03). After multivariable analysis, patients using multiple different recovery services had a lower risk of recidivism (p = 0.04, OR 0.42, 95 % CI [0.19–0.96]). ConclusionsMultifaceted engagement with recovery programming is associated with less recidivism following trauma. Future study of resultant reductions in healthcare costs are warranted. Level of EvidenceLevel II; Prognostic

Crossover youth and juvenile justice: an examination of criminogenic risk and needs for offenders with child welfare history using the Ohio Youth Assessment System

Research suggests that many juveniles in residential facilities report high rates of early childhood trauma. Past research demonstrates that knowledge of trauma history, specifically whether a youth has been abused or neglected, may provide court practitioners with necessary information concerning recidivism risk, treatment needs, and treatment responsivity. Little is known about the validity of general risk assessment tools for youth involved in the child welfare and juvenile justice systems (i.e., crossover youth) and their unique risk patterns. Therefore, this study examined the validity of the Ohio Youth Assessment System-Disposition Tool (OYAS-DIS) for crossover youth. Results revealed that although crossover youth were more likely to have higher risk scores overall compared to general delinquent youth, the total score of the OYAS-DIS was equally predictive of recidivism for both males and females regardless of child welfare status.

Evaluating e-Connect: Mitigating Race by Gender Disparities in Behavioral Health Referral Among Youths on Probation, Northeast United States, 2019.

Addressing the behavioral health needs of youths involved in the justice system is key to reducing recidivism risk and preventing long-term system involvement. However, rates of treatment referral and initiation remain low, especially among minoritized youths and boys. The e-Connect System, a digital, clinical decision support system, addresses this problem by increasing rates of behavioral health treatment referral and initiation rates among youths on probation. In this study, we examine whether e-Connect helps improve equity in referral and treatment initiation outcomes. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(12):1267-1270. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307417).

Court-ordered inpatient psychiatric care in Switzerland: determinants of length of stay and treatment outcome.

IntroductionIn several European countries, offenders with decreased or abolished responsibility and high risk of recidivism due to long-lasting mental disorders are compulsory admitted for court-ordered treatments (COT) that take place in high and medium-security hospitals. As a rule, length of stay in these structures is very long implying major restrictions for the inmate and high societal cost. Despite intensive research, the predictors of length of stay and treatment outcome in long stay forensic services is still matter of debate.MethodsWe report here a detailed analysis of the demographic, psychiatric and offense predictors of length of stay and discharge locations of 204 mentally disordered offenders convicted to COT in a new medium-security forensic psychiatry clinic in Geneva, Switzerland. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates were performed to determine time to release. Length of stay was predicted by Cox regressions, and discharge locations were predicted by multinomial logistic regressions.ResultsThe typical inpatient was a 35-age single male re-offender, submitted to COT after a conviction for physical violence (78.9%) or property violation (64.2%), with drug trafficking (52.9%), in relation to psychotic (67.2%), antisocial or borderline personality disorder (35.8%) with comorbid substance use disorders (60.3%). Sex offenses were found in 24.5% of cases and were associated with Cluster B personality disorders. The median length of stay was of 2.5 years and was independent of demographic variables, severity of crime recidivism and psychiatric diagnosis. Longer COT at admission, and type of offense (in particular drug traffic and sexual violence) predicted longer stays. At discharge, 32.8% of cases were transferred to sheltered educational housing, 23.1% to open low-security wards, while 30.6% returned to regular prisons and 9.7% to their country of origin.DiscussionYounger age and conviction for property violation rather than physical violence increased the chances to be discharged to sheltered educational housing. Longer COT at admission, personality disorders, and conviction for sexual offense increased the risk to return to prison. These data suggest that sex offenses determine not only longer stays under COT but also drastically decreases the chance of freedom for inmates with Cluster B personality disorders.

Interpretable algorithmic forensics

One of the most troubling trends in criminal investigations is the growing use of “black box” technology, in which law enforcement rely on artificial intelligence (AI) models or algorithms that are either too complex for people to understand or they simply conceal how it functions. In criminal cases, black box systems have proliferated in forensic areas such as DNA mixture interpretation, facial recognition, and recidivism risk assessments. The champions and critics of AI argue, mistakenly, that we face a catch 22: While black box AI is not understandable by people, they assume that it produces more accurate forensic evidence. In this Article, we question this assertion, which has so powerfully affected judges, policymakers, and academics. We describe a mature body of computer science research showing how “glass box” AI—designed to be interpretable—can be more accurate than black box alternatives. Indeed, black box AI performs predictably worse in settings like the criminal system. Debunking the black box performance myth has implications for forensic evidence, constitutional criminal procedure rights, and legislative policy. Absent some compelling—or even credible—government interest in keeping AI as a black box, and given the constitutional rights and public safety interests at stake, we argue that a substantial burden rests on the government to justify black box AI in criminal cases. We conclude by calling for judicial rulings and legislation to safeguard a right to interpretable forensic AI.

ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 predict recidivism for men adjudicated for child sexual exploitation material offending.

Risk assessment is essential to effective correctional practice. For individuals with contact sexual offenses, many risk tools are available. There are fewer options, however, for individuals whose sexual offending exclusively involves child sexual exploitation materials (CSEM; legally referred to in Canada and the United States as child pornography). The present study examined the predictive validity of the ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 sexual recidivism risk tools among men with CSEM offenses. We expected these tools to show moderate predictive validity across study groups. We compared the scales' discrimination and calibration across three groups: (a) 1,042 men with contact sexual offenses against children (baseline comparison), (b) 228 men with exclusive CSEM offending (no contact sexual offenses), and (c) 80 men with both contact sexual offenses and CSEM offenses. We found that the ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 total scores and items had comparable (and often better) discrimination for men with CSEM offending compared with contact sexual offending against children in the prediction of any sexual recidivism, violent recidivism, and any recidivism. Calibration analyses indicated that the overall sexual recidivism rates for the median ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 scores were similar for men with exclusive CSEM offenses compared with men with any contact offending against children. Almost all of the sexual recidivism for the CSEM-exclusive group involved further CSEM offenses. This study supports the use of these tools to rank-order men with CSEM offending in terms of their risk of reoffending and to help direct treatment and management efforts. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Social and Emotional Competences of Sexual Offenders against Adolescents: A Case Study

The sexual harassment of adolescents is a heterogeneous phenomenon; however, some aspects of the perpetrators of these crimes appear obscure or little - known. This study aims to investigate the emotional and relational skills of a sex offender through the critical analysis of his psychological path. The sex offender is a middle - aged man accused of sexual acts with minors. The patient has socio - relational deficits as well as immaturity in the sexual–affective sphere, which make him vulnerable. During the clinical path, he was very tired and felt the weight of what he was caring for. The patient should carry out training aimed at restructuring his cognitive distortions, working on the aspects concerning relationships. This case study highlights how necessary investments are in policies that allow sex offenders to try to improve their conditions as well as allowing social inclusion free from prejudices and stigmatizations. It will ultimately reduce the risk of recidivism.

Ties With the Families of Convicts Serving a Sentence Deprived of Liberty in the Electronic Monitoring System (SDE)

The article contains the content and analysis of the results of research relating to serving a prison sentence in the Polish penitentiary system in the Electronic Monitoring System (SDE here and after) in the context of maintaining ties with the social environment, with the family in the assessment of probation officers. The penitentiary system is not limited to isolation. Serving certain forms of punishment outside prisons also contributes to relieving the penitentiary system. The Electronic Monitoring System is an alternative form of execution of the penalty of imprisonment. It allows the state to exercise control over the convict's behavior by means of technical means, eliminating the need for penitentiary isolation as a criminal law response. It is a form of reaction with a much lower degree of discomfort, devoid of the negative consequences associated with isolation, such as demoralization, weakening of family and social ties, change of environment, loss of autonomy, economic degradation or stigmatization. It is an interesting activity related to modern solutions in the field of law, upbringing and family, applied in practice. The probation officer plays an important role in the course of serving the sentence by the convict in SDE, in his social rehabilitation and social adaptation. He is a specialist responsible for supervising and supporting the convicted person. The probation officer performs tasks aimed at implementing court decisions, helps the convict return to society, and prevents re-offending. The key aspect of serving a sentence in SDE is the convict's ability to maintain family ties, his social rehabilitation, the process of preparing for return to society, re-adaptation to social conditions. Serving a sentence in an SDE allows you to maintain family ties, which in turn reduces the risk of recidivism. The prepared and presented content is part of resocialization pedagogy, penitentiary pedagogy, and family pedagogy.