Risk Of Recession Research Articles

Managing the consequences of periodontal diseases/treatment: gingival recession

Gingival recession is a widespread clinical finding that can lead to discomfort, root caries and periodontal problems for some patients, yet be of no consequence for others. There are certain factors which may increase the risk of significant recession, and likewise a range of management strategies exist. The causes, identification, risk factors and treatment options for recession are discussed. This will allow the practitioner to recognize the most suitable treatment options in conjunction with the patient, following an informed discussion and, if appropriate, refer for further care. CPD/Clinical Relevance: Whilst gingival recession may be nothing more than a minor inconvenience for some patients, in certain cases it can present a significant problem for patients requiring professional interventions including surgery. This article summarizes the aetiology, diagnosis and management options available.

A RAPGEF6 variant constitutes a major risk factor for laryngeal paralysis in dogs.

Laryngeal paralysis (LP) is the inability to abduct the arytenoid cartilages during inspiration, resulting in a partial to complete airway obstruction and consequent respiratory distress. Different forms of LP with varying age of onset exist in dogs. Hereditary early onset forms were reported in several dog breeds. In most breeds, hereditary LP is associated with other neurologic pathologies. Using a genome-wide association study and haplotype analyses, we mapped a major genetic risk factor for an early onset LP in Miniature Bull Terriers to a ~1.3 Mb interval on chromosome 11. Whole genome sequencing of an affected Miniature Bull Terrier and comparison to 598 control genomes revealed a 36 bp insertion into exon 15 of the RAPGEF6 gene (c.1793_1794ins36). The imperfect genotype-phenotype correlation suggested a complex mode of inheritance with a major genetic risk factor involving a recessive risk allele. Homozygosity for the insertion was associated with a 10- to 17-fold increased risk for LP. The insertion allele was only found in Miniature Bull Terriers and Bull Terriers. It was absent from >1000 control dogs of other dog breeds. The insertion sequence contains a splice acceptor motif leading to aberrant splicing in transcripts originating from the mutant allele (r.1732_1780del). This leads to a frameshift and a premature stop codon, p.(Ile587ProfsTer5), removing 64% of the open reading frame. Our results suggest an important role of RAPGEF6 in laryngeal nerve function and provide new clues to its physiological significance.

World economy

The recent run of soft survey data suggests that an imminent rebound in global GDP growth is unlikely and that concerns about slowing growth and trade tensions may now be taking a toll on service sector activity. We still forecast global GDP growth to slow into early next year but while recession risks have increased, we do not see this as the most likely scenario. In both 2019 and 2020 as whole we expect global GDP growth to average 2.5% each year, the weakest rate since 2009.

World Economic Prospects Monthly

Overview: Downturn to spur monetary policy loosening ▀ We now expect global GDP growth to dip slightly below 2016's post‐crisis low of 2.6% in 2019. Moreover, despite a swathe of insurance policy loosening, we do not see a rebound in GDP growth in 2020 and have revised down our forecast from 2.7% to 2.5%. This is in contrast to the previous downturn when growth rebounded sharply in 2017. ▀ Timely global activity indicators have remained soft and while they do not point to a sharp loss of momentum in the shorter term, neither do they suggest that the economic situation is likely to get better imminently. Nonetheless, there are two key reasons why we have become more pessimistic about growth prospects next year. ▀ First, we have added further US‐China tariffs to our baseline forecast, which, despite likely more aggressive policy action by the Fed and China, is set to lower GDP growth in both economies next year, with inevitable spill‐overs to the rest of the world. ▀ Second, the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US‐China relations, coupled with growing recession fears in response to the inversion of the US yield curve, is prompting the manufacturing‐focused weakness to spread. Consumers are generally still in good health, but declining business confidence has triggered weaker hiring intentions which may weaken consumer spending growth further ahead. ▀ Our baseline assumes that insurance policy loosening prevents consumer panic and a deep economic slowdown from here. But the reduced effectiveness of monetary policy in the current environment and the small likelihood of a definitive and imminent end to US‐China tensions imply that a notable growth pick‐up, as seen in 2017, is unlikely. ▀ While our baseline assumes no end to the global expansion, we would warn against complacency over the risk of recession. For monetary policy loosening to place a floor under global growth, it will need to be augmented by more accommodative fiscal policy and perhaps a bit of luck in the form of no further major negative shocks.

Rare compound heterozygous missense SPATA7 variations and risk of schizophrenia; whole-exome sequencing in a consanguineous family with affected siblings, follow-up sequencing and a case-control study.

PurposeWhole-exome sequencing (WES) of multiplex families is a promising strategy for identifying causative variations for common diseases. To identify rare recessive risk variations for schizophrenia, we performed a WES study in a consanguineous family with affected siblings. We then performed follow-up sequencing of SPATA7 in schizophrenia-affected families. In addition, we performed a case-control study to investigate association between SPATA7 variations and schizophrenia.Patients and methodsWES was performed on two affected siblings and their unaffected parents, who were second cousins, of a multiplex schizophrenia family. Subsequently, we sequenced the coding region of SPATA7, a potential risk gene identified by the WES analysis, in 142 affected offspring from 137 families for whom parental DNA samples were available. We further tested rare recessive SPATA7 variations, identified by WES and sequencing, for associations with schizophrenia in 2,756 patients and 2,646 controls.ResultsOur WES analysis identified rare compound heterozygous missense SPATA7 variations, p.Asp134Gly and p.Ile332Thr, in both affected siblings. Sequencing SPATA7 coding regions from 137 families identified no rare recessive variations in affected offspring. In the case-control study, we did not detect the rare compound heterozygous SPATA7 missense variations in patients or controls.ConclusionOur data does not support the role of the rare compound heterozygous SPATA7 missense variations p.Asp134Gly and p.Ile332Thr in conferring a substantial risk of schizophrenia.

World economy

The ongoing soft tone of the latest data confirms that the global economic slowdown continues and the risk that this year will see the weakest GDP growth of the postcrisis period is rising. But with policymakers now expected to turn dovish words into actions soon, we still think recession risks remain low.

World Economic Prospects Monthly

Overview: Downturn to spur monetary policy loosening ▀ The ongoing soft tone of the latest data confirms that the global economic slowdown continues, so the risk that this year will see the weakest GDP growth of the post‐crisis period is rising. But with policymakers now expected to turn dovish words into actions soon, we still think recession risks remain low. ▀ Timely global activity and trade indicators continue to point to near‐term weakness. In June, the global composite PMI was unchanged from May at a relatively subdued 51.2. While the services index rose slightly, this only reversed a fraction of the steep decline in the preceding two months. Meanwhile, the headline manufacturing index fell further below the 50 no‐change level and timely indicators of global trade growth point to further weakness ahead. ▀ We expect major central banks to loosen policy in response to this environment of ongoing economic weakness and still weak inflation. We now forecast two rate cuts by the Fed in Q3 2019 and another reduction in Q1 2020. Meanwhile, we anticipate a cut in the ECB deposit rate later this year and there is a strong possibility that ECB QE purchases will also be resumed. ▀ In the short term, the uncertain environment may mean that the period of US dollar strength continues. But the decline in relative interest rate differentials between the US and other economies, along with the sharp slowdown seen in US growth in 2020, may eventually help to weaken the US dollar, causing positive spill‐overs for global trade and emerging market financial balance sheets. Nonetheless, the gradual decline in the dollar anticipated in 2020 will not provide a major fillip to the global economy. ▀ Overall, for 2019 we have left our global GDP growth forecast unchanged at 2.7%. While we have nudged up our 2020 US GDP growth forecast in response to the likely policy loosening, the boost to global growth will be largely offset by downward revisions elsewhere. The modest acceleration in global GDP growth to 2.8% in 2020 and 2.9% in 2021 assumes that accommodative monetary policy remains in place.

A large-scale approach for evaluating asset pricing models

Recent studies show that the standard test portfolios do not contain sufficient information to discriminate between asset pricing models. To address this issue, we develop a large-scale approach that expands the cross-section to several thousand portfolios. Our novel approach is simple, widely applicable, and allows for formal evaluation/comparison tests. Its benefits are confirmed in empirical tests of CAPM- and characteristic-based models. While these models are all misspecified, we uncover striking performance differences between them. In particular, the human capital and conditional CAPMs largely outperform the CAPM, which suggests that labor income and time-varying recession risks are primary concerns for investors.

SLC6A4 Repeat and Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms Are Associated With Depression and Rest Tremor in Parkinson's Disease: An Exploratory Study.

Introduction: Level of serotonin is mainly regulated by the serotonin reuptake transporter encoded by SLC6A4. The promoter region of SLC6A4 bears a repeat polymorphism 5-HTTLPR and a single nucleotide polymorphism rs25531. We have previously studied the association between these two variants and sporadic PD. The objective of the current study was to determine whether the SLC6A4 polymorphisms were associated with key motor and non-motor symptoms of PD.Methods: A total of 370 PD patients of Han Chinese were included. Associations between the SLC6A4 polymorphisms and PD symptoms including depression, intellectual impairment, tremor and rigidity were analyzed.Results: 5-HTTLPR was associated with depression in PD patients and presence of the LL genotype was protective against the depression risk. The rs25531 was associated with rest tremor in PD and the A allele serves as a recessive risk allele. No associations were found in the two polymorphisms with respect to intellectual impairment and rigidity in the cohort.Conclusion: The current study reveals two PD symptoms associated with SLC6A4 polymorphisms, and provides new insight into how serotonergic system genetically participates in the symptomatic progression of PD. Further study is warranted in additional populations.

Goodbye grey skies? 2018's global shocks may be fading

▀ It may be premature to declare the onset of happy days for the global economy, but our trawl through the various drivers of weakness over the last year or so suggests the worst is behind us. ▀ Our lengthy list of lifting clouds is led by China, where policy stimulus is showing signs of boosting lending, but there are other sources of optimism too. The eurozone's run of bad luck may be turning, and there are reasons for optimism on trade wars. Plenty of 2018's bad news was interconnected and centred around adverse global financial conditions, US dollar strength and very tough external conditions for EM. These have reversed in Q1 2019 amid receding fears that global inflation is set to surge. ▀ But we are not yet proclaiming hello to blue skies. After all, recent shocks – good or bad – should on average fade over time. The context is one of weakening trend growth (we are partial believers in the secular stagnation hypothesis) and of pockets of weakness in global balance sheets, including in China. ▀ And we see three conspicuous potentially negative drivers for the global economy. First, there is the fading impact of the US fiscal boost. Second, there is a small probability that some of the ongoing negatives – such as trade wars – could blow up into something very nasty. Third, there is a possibility that negative momentum from past and ongoing shocks may push weakness into Q2 and beyond. ▀ But on balance, all of this adds up to a receding risk of global recession. We now attach a 20% probability to a fall in advanced economy GDP per capita over the next two years, down from 25% previously. Our increased optimism is based on (i) the analysis in this article, (ii) our growing confidence that soft landings are attainable and (iii) our assessment that late‐cycle vulnerabilities may be overstated.

Long-term evaluation of lower incisors gingival recessions after orthodontic treatment.

The development of gingival recessions has been associated with orthodontic treatment; however, a clear etiology is still unknown. The aim of the present study was to further clarify potential association between the development of labial and lingual recessions and inclination of the lower incisors during orthodontic treatment, vertical facial morphology, width of the alveolar bone process, height and width of their symphysis after orthodontic treatment and at long-term retention. On dental casts and good quality lateral cephalograms of 126 orthodontically treated patients, relevant measurements were performed and gingival recessions were assessed and recorded before, immediately after treatment and at long-term retention. Taking into account the whole sample at three different occasions, on the buccal side, the lateral incisors have significantly less recessions than the central incisor. On the lingual side, tooth 32 presented with lower risk of recession compared to all other three incisors. No association was found between the width of the alveolar bone process at the apex (Wapex), at the level of the crest (Wcrest) and at mid of the root (Wmid), the width (D), the vertical skeletal pattern (AnsPns-Go'Me) and the onset of buccal or lingual recessions. Development of new recessions was clearly associated with males and with increasing age. The symphysis height (Me-Wcrest) was statistically related with the onset of lingual recessions on 32 and 42. The ratio between the symphysis height and the width at the crest level demonstrated a statistically significant association with the presence of buccal and lingual recessions. Excessive proclination (≥10°) of the lower incisors demonstrated an association with the onset of recessions in 25 per cent of the cases. Based on the sample of this study, there is some evidence that increased symphysis height (Me-Wcrest), and ratio between the symphysis height and the width at the crest level as well as big change of lower incisor inclination during treatment are associated with the development of recessions.

Italy

This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Italy has been struggling with low economic growth and poor social outcomes and structural weaknesses have been at the core of this economic underperformance. Growth is projected to slow further, and the risk of recession has risen. The extent to which risks materialize depends largely on Italy’s policies. The authorities felt strongly that a fiscal stimulus is needed to promote economic growth and improve social outcomes. The authorities are also seeking to reduce temporary employment and support job search. The report suggests that faster potential growth is the only durable way for Italy to improve outcomes and enhance resilience. A package of structural reforms, a credible fiscal consolidation based on growth-friendly and inclusive measures, and bank balance sheet strengthening structural reforms, fiscal policy, and financial stability are also recommended. As by facilitating re-alignment of wages with productivity at the firm and regional levels, Italy’s high structural unemployment would fall, as would the continued heavy resort to temporary employment.

World Economic Prospects Monthly

Overview: Global growth resilient to trade slowdown ▀ It seems increasingly clear that the manufacturing‐ and trade‐driven soft patch in late‐2018 is extending into this year. But we still think that global recession risks remain low and see no reason to make any notable shifts to our outlook for the global economy this year. We continue to forecast that GDP growth will slow from 3.0% in 2018 to 2.7% this year, with a similar outcome seen in 2020. ▀ Various indicators show that trade volumes slowed sharply at end‐2018 and survey indicators for January suggest that the situation has not improved since then (see Chart). The main reason for this weakness has been China, where imports ended the year on a very weak note and we expect a further slowdown in Q1. ▀ We have lowered our forecast of Chinese imports in 2019 by around 1.5pp in response. However, we expect a bounce back in Q2 and beyond; reflecting this, Chinese import growth over the year as whole is still expected to be notably stronger than in the 2015/16 soft patch. In a similar vein, while global trade growth is expected to slow sharply from 4.6% to 3.3% this year (down from 3.6% last month), it should still be stronger than in 2012–16, providing a solid backdrop for exporters. ▀ Meanwhile, financial markets have rebounded sharply from the December sell‐off due to renewed optimism regarding US and China trade talks and a more dovish Fed. We now expect the Fed to leave rates on hold until at least Q3 and hike rates only once this year. This, along with lower government bond yields and weaker inflation, is also likely to reduce the need for monetary tightening elsewhere, particularly in emerging markets (EMs), helping to support global growth later in the year. ▀ Overall, we still see global GDP growth softening in H1, but with a modest rebound in H2 as Chinese growth stabilises and EMs and European growth regain momentum. Sharper slowdowns in China and global trade and financial‐market weakness remain key concerns for the 2020 outlook. But the risk of inflation‐induced policy tightening is still low and the odds of a renewed flare‐up in trade tensions have ebbed lately.

CRISPR/Cas9-mediated one step bi-allelic change of genomic DNA in iPSCs and human RPE cells in vitro with dual antibiotic selection

CRISPR/Cas9 causes double-stranded DNA breaks that can undergo DNA repair either via non-homologous end joining (NHEJ) or, in the presence of a template, homology-directed repair (HDR). HDR is typically used to insert a specific genetic modification into the genome but has low efficiency compared to NHEJ, which is lowered even further when trying to create a homozygous change. In this study we devised a novel approach for homozygous single base editing based on utilising simultaneously two donor DNA templates cloned in plasmids with different antibiotic resistant genes. The donor templates were co-transfected alongside the CRISPR/Cas9 machinery into cells and a double antibiotic selection was optimised and allowed the isolation of viable desired clones. We applied the method for obtaining isogenic cells homozygous for variant B cystatin C, a recessive risk factor for age-related macular degeneration and Alzheimer’s disease, in both induced Pluripotent Stem Cells (iPSCs) and a human RPE cell line. Bi-allelic gene edited clones were validated by sequencing, demonstrating that the double antibiotic templates approach worked efficiently for both iPSCs and human differentiated cells. We propose that this one step gene editing approach can be used to improve the specificity and frequency of introducing homozygous modifications in mammalian cells.

Early Healing of Immediate Implants Connected With Two Types of Healing Abutments: A Prospective Cohort Study.

To compare hard- and soft-tissue changes around immediate implants connected with 2 types of healing abutments during the early phases of healing. Twenty-eight immediate implants were placed into molar/premolar sockets through a modified osteotomy method. The gaps around implants were grafted with deproteinized bovine bone mineral. According to the size of the alveoli, the implants were connected with titanium healing abutments (traditional group) or customized healing abutments (CA group). Radiographic and intraoral examinations were performed before surgery, postoperatively, and at the 6-month recall. Buccal (P = 0.717) and lingual (P = 0.087) vertical bone loss was comparable between groups. More significant incomplete defect fill was found at the distal aspect of the CA group (P = 0.000). The buccal bone thickness alterations were similar between the 2 groups (P = 0.902 at the implant platform). The mid-facial soft-tissue level was well maintained in both groups. Within the limitations of this study, for immediate implants placed into posterior sockets, customized healing abutments can facilitate closure of large sockets. Despite more pronounced incomplete defect fill, healing abutments consisting of polyether ether ketone and resin did not render an increased risk for periimplant bone loss or soft-tissue recession during the early healing period.

History lessons show recession warning lights on amber

▀ Global recessions are unusual events and the current expansion has not been excessively long. But some features of the latter stages of past expansions, such as a period of low macro volatility, scope for policy mistakes and debt vulnerabilities, are present or have risen. This does not mean the expansion is on its last legs, but the risks of recession or big slowdown have grown. ▀ Since 1960, there have been 4 global recessions (defined as a fall in per capita global GDP). Global recessions are associated with large shocks that hit several economies at once. Recent recessions have been associated with one or more of the following: economic overheating, policy errors, external inflation shocks or a financial crisis. ▀ It is easy to argue that policymakers learn from their mistakes and that recessions due to policy errors are now less likely. But some past mistakes reflected inaccurate real‐time data or incomplete information – a problem which still exists. Policymakers must also grapple with, among other things, uncertainty about the amount of spare capacity in many economies, the effects of withdrawing unconventional policy and swelling populism; these factors imply ample scope for future policy mistakes. ▀ A rise in the volatility of GDP from a low base, which reveals over‐confidence and/or excess leverage, has also been a feature of some past recessions. Economic volatility is currently low, though this has not stopped the G7 private sector deleveraging over the past decade. But debt remains high and credit risks in EM have grown. There is also less scope for governments to act as the spender of last resort than in the past. ▀ Oil price surges have also occurred either before, or in the early stages of, past global recessions. Declining oil intensity and anchored inflation expectations mean that oil shocks are less of a worry than a decade ago, but another shock could add to policy uncertainty and volatility, making the global economy vulnerable to other shocks.

World Economic Prospects Monthly

Overview: US strength has a sting in the tail for EM ▀ Although we have made no changes to our overall global GDP forecasts, we now see the US expansion easing more gradually in 2019 than previously assumed. But the knock‐on effects of faster Fed tightening and a stronger US$, at least in the short term, have prompted us to become more downbeat about growth prospects in the emerging markets (EM). ▀ World GDP growth in H1 was remarkably resilient. But recent news has been more negative overall. The global composite PMI in September fell to its lowest level this year, perhaps a sign that the gloomy mood music of H1 is finally filtering through to the real economy. Meanwhile, some of the key concerns of 2018 to date – protectionism, populism in Italy, higher oil prices and tougher conditions for emerging markets – have either escalated or remain firmly to the fore. ▀ The big plus has been signs that the US economy is continuing to fare well and appears resilient to the threat from trade wars. Despite President Trump announcing tariffs on a further $200bn of Chinese goods, we have raised our 2019 US GDP growth forecast by 0.2pp to 2.5%. However, this positive development has a sting in the tail. This strength, along with Fed comments, has led us to raise our Fed funds forecast – we now see three, rather than two, hikes in 2019. Concerns that the US neutral interest rate is rising has also pushed up bond yields. All this may prompt the US dollar to rise further in the near term. ▀ These developments, plus a slightly weaker outlook for China, higher oil prices and recent EM financial market weakness, have prompted us to downgrade our emerging market forecasts. We now see GDP growth in EMs slowing from 4.4% this year to 4.2% in 2019 (down 0.2pp from last month). ▀ Overall, we see world GDP growth slowing from 3.1% this year to a still‐solid 2.8% in 2019. Recession risks still appear very low for 2019, but vulnerabilities have risen.

Prevalence of gingival recession after orthodontic treatment of infraversion and open bite.

PurposeAim of the present study was to investigate the prevalence of gingival recession and related factors in teeth with low occlusal function (open bite and infraversion) after orthodontic treatment.MethodsFrom January 2014 to December 2017, 403 patients received orthodontic treatment. Their gingival recession and related factors before and after treatment were retrospectively analyzed.ResultsThe prevalence of gingival recession in patients with infraversion and open bite after orthodontic treatment were 80.6 and 75.0%, respectively; these values were 43.4 and 47.5% before treatment, respectively. Notably, the Miller index of gingival recession increased after orthodontic treatment (P < 0.05). The risk of gingival recession in patients with infraversion or open bite after orthodontic treatment was remarkably higher than the risk in other patients (odds ratio [OR] = 16.712 and 5.073, respectively); the gingival recession rate was related to treatment with tooth extraction (OR = 2.043), as well as gingival biotype (OR = 0.341) and gingival index (GI) before orthodontic treatment (OR = 97.404; P < 0.05).ConclusionsPatients with these two types of low occlusal function are more likely to exhibit gingival recession after orthodontic treatment. Moreover, the prevalence of gingival recession after orthodontic treatment is higher among patients who have undergone tooth extraction during orthodontic treatment, and among those who exhibit thin gingival biotype and high gingival index before orthodontic treatment.

Направления развития мирового рынка страховых услуг в сфере транснационального бизнеса

The subject of the study is the world insurance market, its trends and prospects for development on the example of leading countries. The aim of the work is to identify the features and patterns of insurance in the field of transnational business on the example of a transnational insurance broker (SB) Arthur J. Gallagher &amp; Co (AJG). Research methods: statistical analysis, formal and logical modelling of socio-economic processes. The results of the study consist in a comprehensive description of the insurance business of the broker AJG, implementing various strategies to work in national markets. Activity in the States on development of insurance services is carried out taking into account positive and negative tendencies of the world market. The complexity of the present situation is the increasing risk of economic recession, reflected in the reduction in the volume of insurance coverage. Adaptation consists in consolidation of capital, strengthening of positions of the largest and stable companies. AJG has gained access to emerging markets in countries previously closed to transnational capital, but the mission and strategy need to be adapted to national circumstances. The scope of application of the results can be in the commercial field in the activities of the leaders of the insurance market of Russia in planning the strategy of its activities and ensuring the competitiveness of services in the global market. In modern conditions of development of the world insurance market the advantages of leading companies are connected with internal financial and economic stability, flexibility of strategies of penetration into national markets, pronounced social orientation of business.

Genetic risk for squamous cell carcinoma of the nictitating membrane parallels that of the limbus in Haflinger horses.

Squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) is the most common cancer affecting the equine eye, with a higher incidence documented in Haflinger horses. Recently, a missense variant in the gene damage specific DNA binding protein 2 (DDB2, p.Thr338Met) on ECA12 was identified as a risk factor for the development of limbal SCC in Haflinger horses. SCC also occurs on the nictitating membrane; therefore, investigating the role of this missense variant in nictitating membrane SCC is warranted. In this study, a common ancestor was identified among Haflinger horses affected with limbal SCC or with nictitating membrane SCC, thus supporting a recessive risk factor for the development of cancer at both ocular locations. Analysis of genotype data from Haflinger horses with and without nictitating membrane SCC revealed that the same region on ECA12 associated with limbal SCC was also associated with nictitating membrane SCC (P<2.04×10-5 ). Fine mapping of this locus using 25 cases and 49 controls supported the hypothesis that DDB2:c.1013C>T, p.Thr338Met, is a risk factor for nictitating membrane SCC, as 88% of our cases were homozygous for this variant and no other polymorphism was more strongly associated (P=4.13×10-14 ). These data indicate that the genetic risk is the same for the development of both limbal and nictitating membrane SCC in Haflinger horses and validates utilization of genetic testing of the DDB2 variant for both clinical management and the guidance of mating decisions.