Pandemic Risk Research Articles

On the gap between objective and perceived risks of COVID-19.

Asurvey conducted by the German Socio-Economic Panel during the early phase of the SARS-CoV‑2 pandemic in spring 2020 showed that the perceived risks of SARS-CoV‑2 infection were amassive overestimation of the actual risks. Atotal of 5783 people (2.3% missing data) stated how likely they thought it was that SARS-CoV‑2 would cause alife-threatening illness in them in the next 12months. The average subjective probability was 26%. We consider how such an overestimation could have occurred and how amore realistic risk assessment could be achieved in the population in afuture pandemic. We show that qualitative attributes of the pandemic, the reporting of the media, and psychological features may have contributed to the overestimation of SARS-CoV‑2 risks. In its early stages, the SARS-CoV‑2 pandemic had qualitative characteristics known to lead to an overestimation of risks: The risks associated with the pandemic were new, unfamiliar, perceived as poorly controllable, and were taken involuntarily. Phenomena known from cognitive psychology such as the availability and anchor heuristics can also explain the overestimation of pandemic risks. Characteristics of media coverage such as the focus on individual fates and the associated neglect of the denominator also contributed to the gap between perceived and objective risk. In apotential future pandemic, people need to be vigilant but not in apanic. Better risk communication-for example, with better prepared figures and graphically presented percentages while avoiding the denominator neglect-could help the population to perceive risks of future pandemics more realistically.

How to Reconcile Pandemic Business Interruption Risk With Insurance Coverage

En présence de risques majeurs, les capacités financières des (ré)assureurs sont rapidement atteintes. Pour les catastrophes naturelles, un transfert du risque peut se faire vers les marchés financiers grâce aux techniques de titrisation. Une pandemie est une catastrophe. Malheureusement, la stratégie de titrisation des cat. nat. ne peut pas être répliquée pour les risque de pandémie. Dans cet article, nous considérons les risques de pertes d’exploitation telles que celles enregistrées par les entreprises durant les premiers mois de la pandémie COVID-19. Nous nous intéressons à leurs caractéristiques propres : la corrélation entre ces risques de pertes et la valorisation sur les marchés financiers, l’impact des décisions administratives, le risque moral et la liquidité financière des titres financiers en période de pandémie. Pour couvrir les pertes d’exploitation et compléter le marché privé de l’assurance, nous suggérons de construire des obligations sur pertes d’exploitation à double déclencheur qui pourront être combinées à l’auto-assurance et à l’assurance. Nous illustrons ce nouveau schéma de couverture en considérant les pertes enregistrées par les restaurants en France en 2020. Classification JEL : G11, Q54, G22

Management Approaches and Strategies by the Farmers to Cope Up with the Risk of Covid-19 Pandemic

This study was conducted under the department of Agricultural Economics, Uttar Banga Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Coochbehar, West Bengal, India during October, 2021 to January, 2022. The objective was aimed to evaluate the management approaches in relation to management principles for sustaining their farming during Covid-19 pandemic with a unique set of primary data (before, during and after of pandemic) collected in Jalpaiguri district, West Bengal, India. Tabular, multiple regression and Garrett ranking analysis were followed to obtain the results for interpretation. Impact of the management approaches was reflected in positive net income (return-cost ratio around 1.09) in spite of variation in yield and price for two crops viz. paddy and wheat. Mobile phone was largely used for transaction. Multiple regression analysis predicted some independent variables responsible for low yield. The study, thus, showed the farmers’ managerial strategies during pandemic helped them to maintain livelihoods. Restriction in consumption, saving, entertainment, investment and other expenditures had been evident. Low risk enterprises like livestock and vegetables were followed to reduce risk. Like a visionary manager, majority of the farmers (76%) prioritised (Garrett ranking) on more Govt. initiatives. Extent and variation of management principles (functions) viz. planning, organizing, leading and controlling, as followed by the farmers was also examined and found to be relevant. The study, thus, showed the managerial strategies and efficiency of farmer-manager during pandemic which helped the farmers’ to sustain livelihoods during pandemic.

Perceived risk of COVID-19 pandemic on crop production: an implication for food security in Ethiopia

BackgroundRisk perception is a subjective psychological construct that is influenced by cognitive, emotional, social, cultural, and individual differences, both within and between individuals and across countries. Although the impact of COVID-19 on short- and long-term food security is difficult to predict, some risk factors and lessons from previous pandemics can be identified. The goal of this study is to assess rural farmers’ perceptions of the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on crop production and its implications for food security in West Arsi Zone, Oromia, Ethiopia.MethodsA community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 634 small-holder farmers in the west Arsi zone district. From November 1–30, 2020, data was gathered through interviews with local farmers. Data was gathered using a semi-structured questionnaire. Six trained expert agricultural workers were used as data collectors and supervisors, respectively, and both were trained. The questionnaire had been pre-tested. The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software version 25 was used to analyze the data. To identify factors associated with risk perception of the COVID-19 pandemic on crop production, binary and multivariable logistic regression were used, with statistical significance determined at a p-value of 0.05.ResultsThis study found that among farmers in West Arsi Zone, Oromia, Ethiopia, about 32.5% reported having perceived risk of COVID-19 pandemic on crop production, and that age greater than or equal to 57, female sex (AOR,1.48 95% CI (1.03–2.12)), primary Educational status (AOR,2.85(1.78–4.58)), and permanent employed occupation of the house head (AOR, 2.27(1.24–4.17) were found to be independent predictors of perceived risk of COVID-19 pandemic on crop production among farmers in West Arsi Zone, Oromia, Ethiopia.ConclusionPerceived risk of COVID-19 on crop production was high and varied across age groups, sexes, educational attainment levels, and the occupation of the head of the household.

Mammalian ANP32A and ANP32B Proteins Drive Differential Polymerase Adaptations in Avian Influenza Virus.

ANP32 proteins, which act as influenza polymerase cofactors, vary between birds and mammals. In mammals, ANP32A and ANP32B have been reported to serve essential but redundant roles to support influenza polymerase activity. The well-known mammalian adaptation PB2-E627K enables influenza polymerase to use mammalian ANP32 proteins. However, some mammalian-adapted influenza viruses do not harbor this substitution. Here, we show that alternative PB2 adaptations, Q591R and D701N, also allow influenza polymerase to use mammalian ANP32 proteins, whereas other PB2 mutations, G158E, T271A, and D740N, increase polymerase activity in the presence of avian ANP32 proteins as well. Furthermore, PB2-E627K strongly favors use of mammalian ANP32B proteins, whereas D701N shows no such bias. Accordingly, PB2-E627K adaptation emerges in species with strong pro-viral ANP32B proteins, such as humans and mice, while D701N is more commonly seen in isolates from swine, dogs, and horses, where ANP32A proteins are the preferred cofactor. Using an experimental evolution approach, we show that the passage of viruses containing avian polymerases in human cells drove acquisition of PB2-E627K, but not in the absence of ANP32B. Finally, we show that the strong pro-viral support of ANP32B for PB2-E627K maps to the low-complexity acidic region (LCAR) tail of ANP32B. IMPORTANCE Influenza viruses naturally reside in wild aquatic birds. However, the high mutation rate of influenza viruses allows them to rapidly and frequently adapt to new hosts, including mammals. Viruses that succeed in these zoonotic jumps pose a pandemic threat whereby the virus adapts sufficiently to efficiently transmit human-to-human. The influenza virus polymerase is central to viral replication and restriction of polymerase activity is a major barrier to species jumps. ANP32 proteins are essential for influenza polymerase activity. In this study, we describe how avian influenza viruses can adapt in several different ways to use mammalian ANP32 proteins. We further show that differences between mammalian ANP32 proteins can select different adaptive changes and are responsible for some of the typical mutations that arise in mammalian-adapted influenza polymerases. These different adaptive mutations may determine the relative zoonotic potential of influenza viruses and thus help assess their pandemic risk.

Securitization of pandemic risk by using coronabond.

This article investigates the pandemic risk coverage within the European Union member states through insurance securitization. This strategy allows the transfer of health risks from the insurance market to the financial markets. We focus on the financial market crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic to securitize the losses caused by the latter. Over the period from 24/01/2020 (the first proven case of contamination in Europe) to 31/03/2020 (end of the dramatic decrease in financial markets), we apply the extreme value theory allowing the selection of the trigger threshold. We identify an immediate reaction of the financial markets following a pandemic shock, the effect of which fades after a few days. The response of stock market indices, measured by the fluctuation of return rates, is not very high. Nevertheless, the reaction of the financial markets is sufficient for the corona bond triggering, provided that the threshold for triggering the incidence rate is optimal. In addition, the securitization of insurance risk could be an alternative process to the classic risk transfer techniques such as co-insurance and reinsurance. Finally, a reinsurance pool dedicated to the insurance scheme's management against the effects of a pandemic is crucial for insurance securitization. These results could have implications for various actors such as insurers, financial investors, and States.

Pregnant in a Pandemic: Mental Wellbeing and Associated Healthy Behaviors Among Pregnant People in California During COVID-19

IntroductionPregnancy is a time of increased vulnerability to mental health disorders. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic has increased the incidence of depression and anxiety. Thus, we aimed to assess mental health and associated healthy behaviors of pregnant people in California during the pandemic in order to contextualize prenatal well-being during the first pandemic of the twenty-first century.MethodsWe conducted an online cross-sectional study of 433 pregnant people from June 6 through July 29, 2020. We explored 3 hypotheses: (1) mental health would be worse during the pandemic than in general pregnant samples to date; (2) first-time pregnant people would have worse mental health; and (3) healthy behaviors would be positively related to mental health.ResultsMany of our participants (22%) reported clinically significant depressive symptoms and 31% reported clinically significant anxiety symptoms. Multiparous pregnant people were more likely to express worries about their own health and wellbeing and the process of childbirth than were primiparous pregnant people. Additionally, as pregnancy advanced, sleep and nutrition worsened, while physical activity increased. Lastly, anxious-depressive symptomology was significantly predictive of participant sleep behaviors, nutrition, and physical activity during the past week.DiscussionPregnant people had worse mental health during the pandemic, and this was associated with worse health-promoting behaviors. Given that the COVID-19 pandemic and associated risks are likely to persist due to low vaccination rates and the emergence of variants with high infection rates, care that promotes mental and physical well-being for the pregnant population should be a public health priority.

Local distribution infrastructure and robust vaccine manufacturing facilities in LMICs should be prioritised to tackle ongoing and future pandemic risk.

Local distribution infrastructure and robust vaccine manufacturing facilities in LMICs should be prioritised to tackle ongoing and future pandemic risk.

Fuzzy model for quantitative assessment of the epidemic risk of African Swine Fever within Australia.

African Swine Fever (ASF) has spread rapidly across different continents since 2007 and caused huge biosecurity threats and economic losses. Establishing an effective risk assessment model is of great importance for ASF prevention, especially for those ASF-free countries such as Australia. With a vast territory and an economy heavily relying on primary industry, Australia faces a threat from the spread of ASF. Although ordinary quarantine measures have been well-performed throughout Australia, there is still a need to develop an effective risk assessment model to understand the spread of ASF due to the strong transmission ability of ASF. In this paper, via a comprehensive literature review, and analyzing the transmission factors of ASF, we provide a fuzzy model to assess the epidemic risk of Australian states and territories, under the assumption that ASF has entered Australia. As demonstrated in this work, although the pandemic risk of ASF in Australia is relatively low, there is a risk of irregular and scattered outbreaks, with Victoria (VIC) and New South Wales (NSW) - Australia Capital Territory (NSW-ACT) showed the highest risk. The reliability of this model was also systematically tested by a conjoint analysis model. To our knowledge, this is the first study to comprehensively analyze the ASF epidemic risk in a country using fuzzy modeling. This work can provide an understanding of the risk ASF transmission within Australia based on the fuzzy modeling, the same methodology can also provide insights and useful information for the establishment of fuzzy models to perform the ASF risk assessment for other countries.

Identification of broad-spectrum neutralizing antibodies against influenza A virus and evaluation of their prophylactic efficacy in mice

Influenza A virus continuously infects humans and the antigenic shifts of this respiratory virus enable it to cross the species barrier, threatening public health with the risk of pandemics. Broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) that target the antigenic surface glycoprotein, hemagglutinin (HA), of influenza A virus protect against various subtypes of the virus. Here, we screened a human scFv library, through phage display and panning against recombinant HA proteins, to discover human monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) that are broadly active. Consequently, two human mAbs, named G1 and G2, were identified, which target the HA proteins of the H1N1 and H3N2 subtypes, respectively. G1 was shown to have broad binding ability to different HA subtypes of group 1. By contrast, G2 had higher binding affinity but sensed exclusively H3 subtype-derived HAs. In a cell culture-based virus-neutralizing assay, both G1 and G2 efficiently suppressed infection of the parental influenza A viruses of H1N1 and H3N2 subtypes. Mode-of-action studies showed that the G1 antibody blocked HA2-mediated membrane fusion. Meanwhile, G2 inhibited HA1-mediated viral attachment to host cells. It is noteworthy that both antibodies elicited antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) activities by recruiting FcγRIIIA-expressing effector cells. In mouse challenge models, single-shot, intraperitoneal administration of chimeric G1 and G2 antibodies with the mouse IgG constant region completely protected mice from viral infections at doses above 10 and 1 mg/kg, respectively. The newly identified bnAbs, G1 and G2, could provide insight into the development of broad-spectrum antivirals against future pandemic influenza A virus involving group 1- or H3-subtyped strains.

Natural land cover positively correlates with COVID-19 health outcomes

BackgroundThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) poses special challenges for societies, as the disease causes millions of deaths. Although the direct prevention measures affect the prevalence and mortality the most, the other indirect factors, including natural environments and economics, could not be neglected. Evaluating the effect of natural land cover on COVID-19 health outcomes is an urgent and crucial public health topic.MethodsHere, we examine the relationships between natural land cover and the prevalence and mortality of COVID-19 in the United States. To probe the effects of long-term living with natural land cover, we extract county-level land cover data from 2001 to 2019. Based on statistically spatial tests, we employ the Spatial Simultaneous Autoregressive (SAC) Model to estimate natural land cover’s impact and monetary values on COVID-19 health outcomes. To examine the short-term effects of natural environments, we build a seasonal panel data set about the greenery index and COVID-19 health outcomes. The panel SAC model is used to detect the relationship between the greenery index and seasonal COVID-19 health outcomes.ResultsA 1% increase in open water or deciduous forest is associated with a 0.004-death and 0.163-conformed-case, or 0.006-death and 0.099-confirmed-case decrease in every 1,000 people. Converting them into monetary value, for the mortality, a 1% increase in open water, deciduous forest, or evergreen forest in a county is equivalent to a 212-, 313-, or 219-USD increase in household income in the long term. Moreover, for the prevalence, a 1% change in open water, deciduous forest, or mixed forest is worth a 382-, 230-, or 650-USD increase in household income. Furthermore, a rational development intensity is also critical to reduce the risk of the COVID-19 pandemic. More greenery in the short term is also linked to lower prevalence and mortality.ConclusionsOur study underscores the importance of incorporating natural land cover as a means of mitigating the risks and negative consequences of future pandemics like COVID-19 and promoting overall public health.

Hemagglutinin destabilization in H3N2 vaccine reference viruses skews antigenicity and prevents airborne transmission in ferrets.

During influenza virus entry, the hemagglutinin (HA) protein binds receptors and causes membrane fusion after endosomal acid activation. To improve vaccine efficiency and pandemic risk assessment for currently-dominant H3N2 influenza viruses, we investigated HA stability of 6 vaccine reference viruses and 42 circulating viruses. Recent vaccine reference viruses had destabilized HA proteins due to egg-adaptive mutation HA1-L194P. Virus growth in cell culture was independent of HA stability. In ferrets, the vaccine reference viruses and circulating viruses required a relatively stable HA (activation and inactivation pH<5.5) for airborne transmissibility. The recent vaccine reference viruses with destabilized HA proteins had reduced infectivity, had no airborne transmissibility unless reversion to HA1-P194L occurred, and had skewed antigenicity away from the studied viruses and circulating H3N2 viruses. Other vaccine reference viruses with stabilized HAs retained infectivity, transmissibility, and antigenicity. Therefore, HA stabilization should be prioritized over destabilization in vaccine reference virus selection to reduce mismatches between vaccine and circulating viruses.

Pandemic grief risk factors and prolonged grief disorder in bereaved young adults during COVID-19.

This study evaluated whether COVID-19-specific risk factors (e.g., feeling guilty for not being present with the deceased at the time of the loss and feeling emotionally distant from the deceased prior to the loss) were associated with prolonged grief disorder (PGD) symptomatology or diagnosis among young adults bereaved due to any cause (e.g., illness and violent loss). We surveyed 196 young adults who had a family member/close friend die during the COVID-19 pandemic. Participants completed the PGD-12 Questionnaire and the 10-item Pandemic Grief Risk Factors (PGRF) Questionnaire. More time spent with the deceased before the loss and greater endorsement of pandemic grief risk factors were associated with increased PGD symptoms and a greater likelihood of meeting the diagnostic criteria for PGD. The COVID-19 pandemic created unique risk factors that affected the grieving process for bereaved individuals, regardless of whether the death was related to COVID-19 infection. These findings add to a growing body of literature examining grief and loss within the unique context of the COVID-19 pandemic and suggest that there may be detrimental long-term psychological outcomes for these bereaved individuals, regardless of the cause of death. Routine screening for these unique risk factors in medical and psychological clinics is warranted to help identify those individuals who could benefit from early intervention. Also, it will be important to understand and possibly modify evidence-based interventions and prevention programs to directly address the identified unique PGRF.

New observation of perceptive mechanism behind the long-lasting change of people's community mobility: evidence from COVID-19 in China

COVID-19 pandemic provides an opportunity to investigate how a new and long-lasting threat affects public risk perception and social distancing behavior, which is important for pandemic risk management and recovery of the tertiary industry. We have found that the mechanism that perception decides behavior changes over time. At the beginning of the pandemic, risk directly shapes people’s willingness of going out. But under a persistent threat, perception no longer plays the direct role of shape people’s willingness. Instead, perception indirectly influences the willingness by shaping people’s judgment about the necessity of traveling. Switching from direct to indirect influence, perception’s effect is enlarged, which partially prevents people from returning to normal life even if the governmental ban is removed in a zero-COVID community.

COVID-19 and labour market resilience: evidence from large-scale recruitment behaviour

ABSTRACT We construct a theoretical model to interpret the structural shock from the COVID-19 pandemic and the response of local labour market and industry specialization. The empirical study takes the large-scale online labour market of China to analyse firms’ hiring demand for 20 industries across 380 cities with monthly recruitment data from May 2017 to September 2020. Post-event quantitative analysis on job postings and employer demand highlighted that the pandemic resulted in an unemployment shock and industry- and city-level redistribution of the worker. China’s local job market resilience also revealed a regional imbalance, correlated with pandemic risk, city scale and industry structure.

Business interruption insurance as a means of spreading pandemic-related losses.

This article discusses business interruption insurance as a measure of spreading risk in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. In drawing a picture of how business interruption insurance has been handled and governed to date by courts and regulators in the U.K., Australia and the U.S., the contribution is specifically concerned with providing tentative answers to two questions: first, whether the design and interpretation of business interruption policies have made it a suitable means of spreading pandemic risks for policyholders; and second, how methods of resolving disputes over pandemic-related losses could improve the position of policyholders in relation to the insurance sector.

Assessment of a pandemic emergency financing facility

The pandemic bond issued by the World Bank (WB) in 2017 is a financial innovation enabling the transfer of the pandemic risk from the underdeveloped/developing countries to the financial market. It covers perils of various diseases that could overwhelm the global health systems and adversely impact the world economy. If all the triggers are activated, the bond’s principal and coupons are used to finance coordinated, swift and resilient medical response to safeguard the well-being of the populace. This product, however, is criticised for its onerous trigger requirements. We examine the WB’s pandemic-bond pricing framework, which requires inputs that are only partially available. From a rather unstructured COVID-19 data set, an information database is created and customised for pandemic-bond valuation. A vector auto-regressive moving average model is utilised to jointly describe the triggers dynamics. Our modelling simulations of risk triggers reveal that the bond payout could be made in less than half of the WB’s earliest opportunity of 85 days.

The diversity of the glycan shield of sarbecoviruses related to SARS-CoV-2

Animal reservoirs of sarbecoviruses represent a significant risk of emergent pandemics, as evidenced by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. Vaccines remain successful at limiting severe disease and death, but the potential for further coronavirus zoonosis motivates the search for pan-coronavirus vaccines. This necessitates a better understanding of the glycan shields of coronaviruses, which can occlude potential antibody epitopes on spike glycoproteins. Here, we compare the structure of 12 sarbecovirus glycan shields. Of the 22 N-linked glycan attachment sites present on SARS-CoV-2, 15 are shared by all 12 sarbecoviruses. However, there are significant differences in the processing state at glycan sites in the N-terminal domain, such as N165. Conversely, glycosylation sites in the S2 domain are highly conserved and contain a low abundance of oligomannose-type glycans, suggesting a low glycan shield density. The S2 domain may therefore provide a more attractive target for immunogen design efforts aiming to generate a pan-coronavirus antibody response.

COVID-19 Making “Idols”: The Birth of Celebrity Scientists in China

A number of medical experts have become famous overnight in China since the outbreak of COVID-19. This research investigates four representative Chinese scientists by employing search analytics of the Baidu index (from December 2019 to May 2020) and content analysis of answers and commentaries on the Zhihu website (from January 2020 to May 2020). We find that the four scientists present different images and spark unprecedented publicity. In particular, the key to the transformation from scientists into public intellectuals is to demonstrate moral responsibility in public images, or to realize humorous and effective communication with the public. The birth of celebrity scientists has not only reshaped the public's traditional perception of scientists but also played a crucial role in the governance of pandemic risks by guiding the public's behavior and offering scientific ways to cope with risks.

Effectiveness Analysis of Public Transit Pandemic Prevention Strategy Considering Traveler Risk Perception

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, there have been hundreds of millions of confirmed cases in the world, and people can strongly perceive the risk of infection with the virus in their daily lives, which has seriously affected people’s life and travel, thus hindering the development of all sectors of society, especially the transportation sector. Taking China as an example, since the outbreak of the pandemic, China’s overall public transportation passenger volume has decreased by about 37%, seriously affecting the normal running of the public transit. Therefore, the ways of ensuring the normal running of the public transport system during the pandemic has become the focus of this paper. In order to solve this problem, this paper constructed a SEM model based on pandemic risk perception, analyzed the impact of public transit pandemic prevention strategies (TPS) on risk perception (RP) and travel mode use according to the personal trip survey data in Harbin, China during the pandemic. The results showed that people’s risk perception had a significant negative impact on car usage and transit usage. In other words, people’s risk perception of virus infection had a great impact on travel, especially on the use of public transit. The transit pandemic prevention strategy had a significant negative impact on risk perception, and had a significant positive impact on people’s use of transit. This showed that in the current pandemic outbreak period, the transit pandemic prevention strategy proposed by the Harbin authorities cannot effectively reduce transit usage, and can provide proven and effective transit pandemic prevention strategies. This provided an important support for ensuring the normal running of the public transit system and guiding the sustainable development of public transit during the outbreak of the pandemic.